# CE Market Solutions: full text of the research library > Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. Every report below is plain text from the same source as its page on https://cemarketsolutions.com/research. Also offers a free bar-by-bar historical replay and paper-trading tool (free alternative to FX Replay). # What is futures backtesting? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-futures-backtesting **Futures backtesting runs a set of trading rules on past market data to show what those rules would have done, trade by trade, with costs included.** ## The short answer Futures backtesting means taking a set of trading rules and running them on historical futures prices. The output is a record of every trade the rules would have taken: when each one entered, where its stop and target sat, when it exited, and what it made or lost after costs. The point is to replace a feeling about a setup with a record you can read line by line. You still decide what the record means. The backtest only supplies the record. - **Backtest**: A run of fixed trading rules over past market data, producing a record of every trade the rules would have taken. - **Trade**: One entry and its exit, whether the exit is a stop, a target or a time stop. - **Fill**: The price at which an order is assumed to execute. - **Roll**: The switch from an expiring futures contract to the next contract month. ## What a backtest needs Four things decide whether a backtest means anything. - Rules that cannot be misread. If a rule can be read two ways, the result is really two different tests. A range written as 18:00–19:00 ET either includes the 19:00 bar or it does not, and the answer changes the trades. - Price data fine enough for the rules. A rule about the first five minutes after the open needs bars shorter than five minutes. Our runs use 1-minute CME futures data. - Exact fills. The test has to say where each order fills. A target fills when price touches it, at that exact price. A signal that appears when a bar closes can first be acted on at the next bar’s open. - Costs. Commission and slippage come out of every trade. A test without them shows a result no account could have had. > A backtest answers the question its rules ask, and nothing else. Write the rules so there is only one way to read them. ## Why futures need extra care A futures contract expires. When it does, trading moves to the next contract month, and that contract usually trades at a different price. The difference is not a market move. Nobody could have traded it. Chain the months together without handling this and a roll can trigger an entry, or hit a stop, on a price change that never happened. So roll dates have to be explicit events in the data, and the simulation has to run on raw prices. Our method takes the front month by volume and switches at the 18:00 ET session open. Prices are not back-adjusted. No trade is held through a contract change: a position still open at the close of the last session before a roll exits at that session’s final bar close, and nothing is reopened on the new contract. Each contract also has its own size. One point is worth $20 on NQ, $2 on MNQ, $50 on ES, $5 on MES and $100 on GC. A backtest can report in points, in R or in dollars, so you need to know which one you are reading. ## What a backtest can tell you It can tell you how many trades the rules would have taken, how those trades were spread across the years, how far the account would have fallen at its deepest, how long the longest losing streak ran, and how much the costs took. Those are facts about the history the rules were run on. It can also show where a description of the rules was incomplete. When the trades on the page are not the ones you pictured, the rule needs a sharper sentence. ## What a backtest cannot tell you It cannot tell you what happens next. Simulated results are not actual trading. They are built with the benefit of hindsight, and they cannot show the effect of things such as a market too thin to fill your order. It also cannot test you. A rule that is easy to follow on a chart of the past can be hard to follow live, after three losing trades in a row. That is what a bar-by-bar replay or a forward test is for. ## Questions and answers ### What is a backtest in trading? A backtest runs fixed trading rules on past price data and records every trade the rules would have taken, with entries, exits and costs. ### Is a futures backtest different from a stock backtest? The method is the same. Futures add contract expiry, so the data has to handle rolls, and each contract has its own dollar value per point and its own tick size. ### Can a backtest predict future results? No. A backtest is a simulation on past data, and simulated results do not represent actual trading. It shows what the rules would have done, not what they will do. ### Do I need to code to backtest a futures strategy? Not with our service. You describe the rules in plain language, and if something is ambiguous we ask rather than guess. ### How far back can a futures backtest go? As far as the data goes. On ours, NQ and ES run from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026, and MNQ and MES start in May 2019, when those contracts launched. A run cannot ask for more history than the data covers. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to backtest a futures strategy Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-backtest-a-futures-strategy **Write rules that cannot be misread, run them on 1-minute data with costs, hold some months back, read every trade, then change one thing at a time.** ## The six steps There are six steps, in this order: write the rules, get the data, set the costs, hold some months back, read every trade, and change one thing at a time. Each step has a way to go wrong. Each is covered below. ## Step 1: Write the rules so they cannot be misread Write each rule as a sentence with one reading. Name the market, the time zone, the bar size, the entry trigger, where the stop goes, where the target goes, and when the trade closes if neither is hit. Then test each sentence against the awkward cases. Does a range include its last minute? Does a target fill when price touches it, or only when a bar closes beyond it? What happens when a bar opens already beyond your stop? In our method a range written as 18:00–19:00 ET includes both ends, which is 61 one-minute bars. A target fills on touch, at the exact price. A trade whose entry bar opens beyond the stop or the target is skipped, and the report lists it as skipped. - **Entry window**: How long a setup keeps waiting for its entry condition after the trigger. It counts from the close of the trigger bar. - **Max hold**: How long a position stays open once filled. It counts from the fill, not from the trigger. - **Time stop**: An exit at a fixed time. A time stop at 17:00 exits at the close of the 16:59 bar, the last bar that finishes before the stated time. > If two people could read a rule differently, it is not finished. ## Step 2: Get data that matches the rules Use bars no coarser than the rules need. An opening-range rule needs intraday bars. A rule about the daily close can use daily bars. Run the simulation on raw, unadjusted prices, and handle contract rolls as explicit events. If a back-adjusted series is used at all, use it only to draw charts. ## Step 3: Set the costs Add commission and slippage before the first run, not after. Commission is a flat amount per contract per side. Slippage is the number of ticks you assume you give up on each fill. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Costs are applied after the run, so they do not move fills, stops or targets. ## Step 4: Hold some months back Before you look at results, set aside part of the history and do not use it while you build the rules. Test the finished rules on those months once. Spread the held-back months across the whole history rather than cutting one block off the end, so the test covers different market conditions. In our service, about 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back for each strategy. A trade that is open in a held-back month is dropped from the results. ## Step 5: Read every trade Do not stop at the summary figures. Open the trades. Check a few against the chart by hand. Look at trades near contract rolls, near the session open and near time stops, and at trades that bunch up in a few weeks. If a trade surprises you, find out why before you trust the totals. You get every trade back with the exact rules and assumptions that were tested, so each one can be checked. ## Step 6: Change one thing and test again Change one rule per run: the stop distance, or the entry time, or the target. Run it again and compare. If you change three things at once, you cannot tell which one moved the result. Keep a note of what each run changed. In our service each run of a strategy is a version, and the versions of a strategy are kept together, so the history of changes stays attached to it. ## Questions and answers ### What do I need before I start backtesting? Written rules with one reading each, price data fine enough for those rules, a cost assumption, and a plan for which months to hold back. ### How much history should I use? As much as the data covers for the market you trade, so the test spans different conditions. On our data, NQ and ES start on June 2, 2016, and a run cannot ask for more history than the data holds. ### Should I add costs before or after the first run? Before. A first run without costs shows a result that no account could have had. ### How do I find a mistake in a backtest? Read the trades. Compare a few against the chart by hand, and check the ones near contract rolls, session opens and time stops. ### Can I backtest without coding? Yes, with our service. Describe your rules the way you would explain them to another trader. If something is ambiguous, we ask rather than guess. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What data do you need to backtest futures? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/futures-backtesting-data **You need price bars fine enough for your rules, usually 1-minute for intraday rules, with the front month chosen by volume and contract rolls marked.** ## Bar size: 1-minute or daily A bar records four prices for a period: the open, the high, the low and the close. A daily bar keeps those four prices for a whole session. It does not keep the order the market moved in. That order is what an intraday rule depends on. If your stop and your target both sit inside the same day’s range, a daily bar cannot say which was touched first. Neither can a 5-minute bar if both fall inside it. Finer bars settle it. Our runs use 1-minute bars. When a stop and a target both fall inside one bar on a longer timeframe, the 1-minute bars decide which was hit first. > Match the bars to the rules. A rule that talks about minutes needs minute bars. ## Why intraday rules need intraday data Take a rule such as “enter on the first break of the 09:30–09:45 range.” Daily data has no 09:45. Even 15-minute bars blur the break, because a bar that touches both sides of the range hides which side came first. Daily data is fine when the rule only uses daily information, such as the previous day’s high or low or a daily close. Pick the coarsest bars that still answer every question the rules ask. ## Front month and rolls A futures contract expires, so a long history is made of several contracts joined end to end. Two choices follow: which contract counts as the market on a given day, and what to do on the day it changes. Our rule is the front month by volume, switching at the 18:00 ET session open. Prices are not back-adjusted. A back-adjusted series changes old prices so the line looks continuous, which is useful on a chart and wrong for a simulation, because it is not a price anyone traded. Back-adjusted series may be drawn for display. They are never what the simulation trades. Roll dates are stored as explicit events. No trade is held through a contract change: a position still open at the close of the last session before a roll exits at that session’s final bar close, and nothing is reopened on the new contract. - **Front month**: The contract month chosen as the market for a given session. Ours is the one with the highest volume. - **Back-adjusted**: A series in which old prices are shifted so the roll gaps disappear. Used for display only. - **Raw price**: The price as it traded on its own contract. The simulation runs on raw prices. ## How far back the data goes The history you can test is the history the data covers. On our data, NQ and ES run from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. MNQ and MES run from their launch in May 2019 through the same date. GC runs from September 29, 2016. A run cannot ask for more history than that. The order form caps the years you can choose to what is covered for the market you picked, and the server refuses a request that reaches further back. ## Where the data comes from Our data is historical CME futures data licensed from Databento. It is not a live feed. Every clock time in a run is America/New_York, including the daylight-saving changes, and a bar is labelled by its open time. When you source data yourself, check four things before the first run: the bar size, the time zone, how the contract months are joined, and whether holidays and early closes are in the file. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest futures on daily data? Yes, if the rules only use daily information. For anything that depends on what happened inside the day, such as an opening range, a stop and a target in the same session or a time of day, use intraday bars. ### What is front-month data? It is the price series of the contract month that is treated as the market for each session. We choose the front month by volume and switch at the 18:00 ET session open. ### Should futures data be back-adjusted for a backtest? Not for the simulation. Back-adjusted prices are not prices that traded. We run on raw prices and use a back-adjusted line only to draw charts. ### Where does your futures data come from? Historical CME data licensed from Databento. ### How much history is available for NQ? On our data, NQ runs from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is max drawdown in a backtest? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-a-drawdown **Max drawdown is the largest fall of the cumulative result below its running peak, measured in R or in dollars, starting from the beginning of the run.** ## Peak to trough Add up the result of every trade in the order the trades closed. That gives a line: the equity curve. Drawdown is how far that line sits below the highest point it has reached so far. Max drawdown is the largest such fall in the whole run. In our reports it is the largest fall of cumulative net R below its running peak, in exit order, starting at 0. - **Peak**: The highest point the equity curve has reached so far. - **Trough**: The lowest point after a peak, before a new peak is made. - **Max drawdown**: The largest peak-to-trough fall in the run. - **Longest losing streak**: The most losing trades in a row. ## Why the start counts as a peak The curve starts at 0, and 0 is the first peak. If the first trades lose money, the curve is already below its peak and the drawdown has already started. Leave the start out and a run that opens with a long losing streak would show no drawdown until its first winning trade. That would understate the fall. So the starting point is part of the measurement. ## R against dollars R is the trade result in units of the amount risked: the distance from the entry to the initial stop. A trade stopped out at its initial stop is a loss of 1.00R. Drawdown in R says how many of those initial risks the curve fell by. Dollars depend on size. Run the same trades on twice as many contracts and the dollar drawdown doubles. The R figure stays the same. That makes R the better unit for comparing runs and dollars the better unit for asking whether a given account could have taken the fall. Drawdown can also be measured in percent of equity, which needs a position size and compounding. A percent drawdown depends on that sizing rule as well as on the trades. > Max drawdown is the deepest fall the history contained. It is a fact about the past, not a limit on the next one. ## Drawdown and account limits Some prop firm accounts, and some trading accounts, set a limit on how far the balance may fall. Programs measure that limit in different ways. Some measure from the starting balance and some from the highest balance reached. Read the exact definition for your account before you compare it with a backtest’s drawdown. A backtest’s max drawdown is also a single number from one path through the history, so it says nothing about the order the trades could arrive in next time. ## Reading drawdown next to the rest Read max drawdown with the trade count, the longest losing streak and the costs. A fall measured over a few trades is a thinner fact than the same fall measured over thousands. Check also that the figure is net of commission, since costs deepen every drawdown. ## Questions and answers ### What is max drawdown? It is the largest fall of the cumulative result from a peak to the lowest point after it, across the whole run. ### How is max drawdown calculated in R? Take cumulative net R in the order trades closed, track the running peak, starting at 0, and find the largest fall below that peak. ### Why does the drawdown start at 0? Because the run starts at 0, and 0 is the first peak. If the first trades lose, the curve is already below its peak. ### Is a drawdown in R the same as a drawdown in dollars? No. R is in units of the initial risk and does not change with the number of contracts. Dollars scale with size. ### Does max drawdown set a limit on future losses? No. It describes the history the rules were run on, and a future fall can be deeper or shallower. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # R multiples and expectancy, explained Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-an-r-multiple-and-expectancy **An R multiple measures each trade in units of the amount risked, and expectancy is the average R per trade, which shows more than win rate alone.** ## R: the unit of risk R is the distance from the entry price to the initial stop. One R is the amount you lose if the trade is stopped out there. A trade stopped at its initial stop is −1.00R. A trade that closes at twice that distance in your favour is +2.00R. Measuring in R takes size and market out of the figure. A tight stop on NQ and a wide stop on ES are both 1R. That lets you set trades of different sizes side by side. - **R multiple**: A trade’s result divided by its initial risk, the distance from entry to stop. - **Win rate**: The share of trades with a net R above zero. - **Average win, average loss**: The mean result of the trades above zero and the mean result of the trades below zero. - **Expectancy**: The average R per trade across all trades. Written as a number of R. ## Win rate: the share of trades that make money Win rate counts trades with a net R above zero and divides by the number of trades. It is easy to read and easy to misread, because it says nothing about the size of the wins or the losses. Net means after costs. A trade that gains less than its commission is not a win in a net count. ## Expectancy: the average trade Expectancy is the mean R across every trade, wins and losses together. In words: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss. Positive means the average trade added to the account over this history. Negative means it subtracted. It is an average over one sample, so it carries uncertainty. A good report shows an interval next to it. Our findings give a 95% interval for expectancy, so the figure is read as a range. > Win rate says how often. Average win and average loss say how much. Expectancy puts the two together. ## Why win rate alone says little Two sets of rules can have the same win rate and opposite expectancy. A rule that wins often but takes small gains and large losses can have a negative average. A rule that wins rarely but takes large gains against small losses can have a positive one. That is why a win rate is only worth reading with the average win, the average loss and the number of trades next to it. Our findings show average win and average loss in points per contract, net of commission, beside the win rate. ## How to read the three together Start with the trade count. Then read win rate and the average win against the average loss. Then read expectancy and its interval. If the interval crosses zero, the history does not separate the average trade from nothing. Then check how the result is spread: by year, by market condition and across the held-back months. One average can hide a lot. ## Questions and answers ### What is an R multiple in trading? A trade’s result divided by its initial risk, the distance from the entry to the stop. A trade stopped out at the initial stop is −1.00R. ### What is expectancy in trading? The average R per trade across all trades in the sample. It combines win rate, average win and average loss in one figure. ### Is a high win rate a sign of a better strategy? Not by itself. Win rate ignores the size of wins and losses. Two sets of rules can share a win rate and have opposite expectancy. ### What does it mean when the 95% interval for expectancy crosses zero? It means the history is consistent with an average trade of zero as well as with a positive or negative one, so the sample does not separate them. ### Are R figures before or after costs? It depends on the report, so check. Ours say whether commission is included, and net means after commission. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How many trades does a backtest need? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-many-trades-does-a-backtest-need **There is no set number: a backtest needs enough trades that one lucky or unlucky stretch cannot decide the answer, so read the count beside every figure.** ## The short answer There is no magic number. How many trades you need depends on what you want to say with the result. A result from a handful of trades describes those trades. It says very little about the next ones. A result from thousands of trades says much more, because no single trade can move it. A fair coin shows why. It can land on heads several times in a row. Over thousands of flips it settles close to half. Backtest figures behave the same way: the fewer trades behind them, the more they can move on luck alone. > Read the number of trades next to every figure. A figure without its count tells you nothing about how much weight it can carry. ## Why 50 trades and 2,000 trades let you say different things With 50 trades you can say what happened in those 50 trades. Take out a few and the picture can change. You cannot split them by year and still have enough in each year to look at. With 2,000 trades, no single trade matters much. You can split the history into years, or into morning and afternoon entries, and still have a real count in each part. You can ask whether the result looks similar across years, and the answer means something. Our own site puts it this way: fourteen trades over eight months is a number, not a pattern. - **Sample size**: The number of trades behind a figure. - **Interval**: A range around a figure showing how far it could move with a different set of trades. More trades make the range narrower. ## Count the spread, not only the total Trades on the same day, or in the same stretch of market, tend to look alike. Two thousand trades from one calm year are not the same as two thousand trades spread across many years. Our NQ and ES data runs from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. A rule that can trade on any day has years of days to draw on. A rule that needs a rare setup may produce a small count even over that whole span. ## What lowers your trade count The count you get is almost always smaller than the number of days in the data. These are the usual reasons: - Filters: every condition you add removes days. - A narrow entry window. A setup whose window runs out with no entry taken is skipped. - A bar that opens beyond the stop or the target on the entry bar. The trade is skipped, and the results list it as skipped. - Held-back months. About 30% of months are kept out of the results, and any trade that is open in one of them is dropped. ## What to do with a thin sample Say plainly that it is thin. Do not round a small sample up into a conclusion. Then you have options. Loosen a filter so the rule trades more often. Test a longer history. Test the same rule on a second market, written out the same way. Or keep the rule as it is and wait for more trades to arrive. None of this makes a bigger sample a promise. More trades make the figure steadier for the history you tested. They do not say what happens next. ## Questions and answers ### Is 100 trades enough for a backtest? There is no cutoff we can give you. It depends on what you want to say. One hundred trades are enough to describe those trades. They are a thin base for splitting by year or by condition. ### Does more history always mean more trades? Only if the rule trades often. A rule that fires a few times a year adds very little with each extra year. Count the trades, not the years. ### Do skipped trades count in the sample? No. A skipped setup, for example one whose entry bar opened beyond the stop or the target, is listed as skipped. It is not counted as a win or a loss. ### Where do I find the trade count? Next to the figures. Every finding on this site states its sample size beside the results. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # In-sample, out-of-sample and walk-forward testing Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/out-of-sample-and-walk-forward **In-sample data is what you build the rules on, out-of-sample data is held back to test them once, and walk-forward repeats that test through time.** ## In-sample: where the rules come from In-sample data is the history you look at while you write the rules. You see a chart, form an idea, pick a stop, pick a target, run it, and adjust. Anything shaped on that data will fit it. That is not a flaw in the person. It is how rules get written. It only means the in-sample result tells you how well the rules fit that history, not how they will do on history you have not looked at. - **In-sample**: The data you used to build and adjust the rules. - **Out-of-sample**: Data kept out of sight while you built the rules, used afterwards for a check. - **Walk-forward**: Fit on one window of history, test on the next, slide forward, and repeat. - **Overfitting**: Rules tuned so closely to one stretch of history that they describe its noise as well as its structure. ## Out-of-sample: the part you do not touch Out-of-sample data is history you set aside before you start. You build the rules without looking at it. When the rules are fixed, you run them on that data. The rule that makes it work is simple. Once you look at the held-back data and change something because of what you saw, it is in-sample. It cannot do the job twice. > Check the held-back data once. If you change the rules after looking, it is no longer held back. ## Why held-back periods are spread across the history The simple way to hold data back is to keep the last few years. The trouble is that those years are one stretch of market. If they happen to be quiet, or fast, the check says something about quiet or fast markets, and nothing else. So we hold back months, not years. When a strategy starts, we pick about 30% of the months, spread across every year, with at least one in each year. The months are chosen once, are fixed for the life of the strategy, and are the same for every version of it. Any trade whose entry or exit falls in a held-back month is dropped before a single figure is worked out. The results page shows those months greyed out and labelled "Saved for out-of-sample". ## Walk-forward testing Walk-forward testing repeats the idea through time. Take the first window of history and choose your settings on it. Test those settings on the window right after it. Then slide both windows forward and do it again. At the end you join up all the test windows. It checks how the way you choose settings holds up as markets change. It does not check one fixed set of settings, and it does not tell you what comes next. ## What overfitting looks like You will rarely see it announced. These are the signs: - Every condition was added after a specific bad stretch. - Moving a setting by one tick changes the result a lot. - The result sits in one year, or in a few trades. - The held-back check looks nothing like the in-sample result. ## Questions and answers ### What is the difference between in-sample and out-of-sample? In-sample data is what you used to build the rules. Out-of-sample data was kept out of sight until the rules were fixed. The first shows how well the rules fit. The second is a check on that. ### Is walk-forward testing the same as out-of-sample testing? It is built on the same idea. Out-of-sample testing usually holds one block back and checks it once. Walk-forward repeats the fit-then-test step many times along the history. ### Why hold back months instead of the last few years? A block of years is one stretch of market. Months spread across every year test the rules in each year of the history, not in a single period. ### Does an out-of-sample check show the rules will hold up on new data? No. It shows whether the rules were tuned only to the months you looked at. New data can still behave differently. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Backtesting vs forward testing vs replay Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/backtest-vs-forward-test-vs-replay **A backtest runs your rules over past data, a forward test runs them on new data as it comes, and a replay lets you step through history one bar at a time.** ## Three tools, three questions A backtest asks what these exact rules would have done over past data. A forward test asks how the rules behave on prices that have not happened yet. A replay asks how a setup looks, and how you handle it, as the chart unfolds bar by bar. They answer different questions, so they do not compete. - **Backtest**: Exact rules run over past data, all at once. - **Forward test**: The same rules run on prices as they arrive, with no real order placed. - **Replay**: Past data shown one bar at a time, with later bars hidden. - **Paper trading**: Placing orders against a simulated account instead of a real one. ## Backtest A backtest needs rules that cannot be misread, because a computer follows them literally. In return you get years of trades in minutes, with a trade count and a full record of every entry and exit. Its limit is that the rules were written with the history in view. It also models its fills. In ours, a target fills on touch at the exact price. A stop fills at the stop price plus slippage, or at the bar’s own open if price gapped through it. Costs are applied after the run and do not move fills. ## Forward test A forward test runs the rules on live prices as they arrive, on paper. You cannot look ahead, because the bars do not exist yet. That is what makes it different from everything done on history. The price of that is time. You only get trades as the market produces them, so a rule that trades rarely takes a long time to build a sample. Fills on paper are still modelled, not real. ## Replay A replay shows past data one bar at a time. In our Trade Lab you pick NQ, ES or GC and a start date, then step forward through 1-minute bars. No bar after the current one is loaded, and a replay cannot be moved backward. You can draw on the chart, keep a journal of each decision and place paper orders. Paper fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars, so they approximate live fills. It uses history only: there is no live data, and no real order is ever placed. It is free with an account and a verified email. A replay is how you test a setup by hand. Use it when your rules are not yet exact enough for a computer. ## When to use each Start from the question you have: - Your rules are fuzzy: replay a few days and find out what you really do, then write the rules down. - Your rules are exact and you want a count of trades: backtest them. - A backtest result looks interesting: forward test the rules on new data before you lean on it. > A backtest tells you what the rules did. Only new data tells you what they do next. ## Using them together The three fit in a loop. Replay to find the setup. Backtest to count it, with months held back. Forward test what is left on prices that have not happened yet. Each step removes a way of fooling yourself that the one before it left open. ## Questions and answers ### Is a replay the same as a backtest? No. A backtest runs fixed rules over the history at once. A replay shows the history one bar at a time and you make each decision yourself. A replay can feel like a manual backtest, but you decide as you go and the sample is only as large as the days you step through. ### Is forward testing the same as paper trading? A forward test is usually done on paper, so the two overlap. The point of a forward test is that the data is new. Paper trading on history, as in a replay, is not a forward test. ### Does the replay show bars from the future? No. The server never sends a bar later than the current one. ### How long should a forward test run? It depends on how often the rules trade. A rule that trades daily builds a sample far faster than one that trades a few times a year. See how many trades a backtest needs. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # When the entry and the stop hit in the same bar Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/same-bar-fill-and-stop **A same-bar fill-and-stop is a trade that enters and hits its stop inside one bar; it really happens, so a sound backtest keeps it and counts it.** ## What happens A bar is a summary. It gives you the open, the high, the low and the close for a stretch of time. A 1-minute bar covers one minute. A 5-minute bar covers five. It shows how far price travelled in that time. It does not show the order. If your entry price and your stop price both sit inside one bar’s range, the bar alone cannot say which was reached first. ## Why a backtest is tempted to delete these trades The order is unclear, so it is easy to call the trade ambiguous and throw it out. The trouble is that the trades thrown out are the ones that went wrong straight away. Remove them and the results look cleaner than the trading would have been. > A trade that entered and stopped out on the same bar happened. Drop it and the count is wrong. ## Why they are real In a live account, price reaches your entry and you are in. Price moves on to your stop and you are out. You pay commission both ways and you hold a loss. It does not matter that this all fit inside one bar. Deleting the trade afterwards is hindsight. You are choosing which trades to count after you saw how they ended. ## How we handle them These are the rules in our Assumptions, copied in plain words: - Targets fill on touch, at the exact price. A close beyond the target is not needed. - When a stop and a target both fall inside the same bar on any timeframe above one minute, the 1-minute bars decide which was hit first. - If they still land in the same 1-minute bar, the stop is taken. - This applies to every bar, including the entry bar itself. - These trades are always included in the count. They are never excluded as ambiguous. - **Same-bar fill-and-stop**: A trade that enters and reaches its stop within one bar. - **Tie**: A bar that holds both the stop and the target, where the order has to be decided by a stated rule. - **Gap**: A bar that opens beyond a price instead of touching it. A stop that is gapped through fills at the bar’s own open. - **Skipped trade**: A setup whose entry bar opens beyond the stop or the target. It is listed as skipped. ## A skipped trade is not the same thing If the entry bar opens beyond the stop or the target, the entry price is never available. The trade is skipped. It is not counted as a loss, and not as a win it never had the chance to be. A same-bar fill-and-stop is different. The entry price was reached. The trade was valid, and it ended on the same bar. ## Why a tie goes to the stop A tie has to go one way. Give it to the target and you book wins the data cannot show. So the stop is taken, and the assumption is written down so that anyone reading the results knows it. How often it comes up depends on the size of the stop against the size of a typical bar. The tighter the stop is compared to the bar, the more often both prices sit inside one bar. ## Questions and answers ### What is a same-bar fill and stop? It is a trade that enters and reaches its stop price inside a single bar. Both prices were touched, so the trade is real, and it counts. ### Do these trades count in the trade total? Yes. They are always included, and never excluded as ambiguous. ### What if the stop and the target are in the same bar? On a timeframe above one minute, the 1-minute bars decide which was hit first. If both are in the same 1-minute bar, the stop is taken. ### Is a skipped trade the same as a same-bar fill-and-stop? No. A skipped trade is one whose entry bar opened beyond the stop or the target, so it never entered. A same-bar fill-and-stop did enter. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Common futures backtesting mistakes Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/common-backtesting-mistakes **Common futures backtesting mistakes: rules that use hindsight, ignored contract rolls, no costs, a hand-picked period, and trades the market never filled.** ## Hindsight in the rules This is the quiet one. A rule uses information that did not exist yet at the moment it fires. Take "enter when the day closes above the opening range". The close has to exist before the rule can fire, so the rule cannot be acted on at the time it claims to. A tool will run it and hand back a number anyway. The test is to ask, for every input: could I have known this at that bar? - **Hindsight**: Using information in a rule that was not available at the time the rule would have acted. - **Contract roll**: The switch from an expiring futures contract to the next one. - **Back-adjusted**: A price series shifted so a roll leaves no jump. It is useful for display, not for simulating fills. > If a rule needs information that did not exist yet when it fires, the backtest is wrong before it starts. ## Ignoring contract rolls A futures contract expires, and trading moves to the next month. The new contract’s price is usually not the old one’s price. That difference is not a market move. Nobody could have traded it. Continuous data chains the months together but leaves those jumps in the series. Run a backtest straight over it and a roll can trigger an entry, or take out a stop, on a price change that never happened. We take the front month by volume, switching at the 18:00 ET session open. Prices are raw, not back-adjusted. No trade is held through a contract change: a position still open at the close of the last session before a roll is exited at that session’s final bar close, and nothing is reopened on the new contract. ## Leaving out costs Every trade pays commission, and every stop fill can slip. A backtest with neither shows a cleaner result than an account would. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Costs are applied after the run and do not move fills, stops or targets. ## Choosing the period Start and end dates picked after looking at the chart are a choice made with hindsight. A run that begins just after a bad stretch will look different from one that begins just before it. Use the whole history the data allows. Ours runs from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026 for NQ and ES. Then keep months back so part of it stays unseen. ## Counting a trade the market never filled Some backtests record fills that could not have happened. A limit order filled at a price that printed once. A stop assumed to fill at exactly the stop price when price gapped through it. An entry on a bar that opened beyond the stop or the target. We skip the last one and list it as skipped. A stop that gapped fills at the bar’s open. The opposite mistake is just as common: dropping a trade that did fill because the order inside the bar looked unclear. See same-bar fill and stop. ## Questions and answers ### What is look-ahead bias in a backtest? It is a rule that uses information from after the moment it is supposed to act, such as a daily close inside a rule that fires during the day. ### Why do contract rolls matter in a futures backtest? Because the new contract usually trades at a different price. Run over that jump and a roll can trigger an entry or hit a stop on a move nobody could have traded. ### Do I need to include commissions in a backtest? Yes. Leaving them out understates what every trade costs. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ### Should I use all the data I have? Use the whole history so you are not choosing the period after the fact, and keep some months out of sight for a later check. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to get a trading strategy backtested Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/backtest-your-trading-strategy **You describe your rules, we run them on real CME futures history and return every trade and assumption; a version is $19, in two to three business days.** ## What you give us You do not need to code. Describe your rules the way you would explain them to another trader. You give us your rules. You build them stage by stage in the builder, starting from a preset (previous day break, opening range breakout, moving-average cross, PD array) or writing the entry in your own words. You pick the market: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ or gold (GC). We test CME futures only. Gold is ordered on its own, never together with an index. You can change the commission on the order. On your first version you also answer a few questions: a name for the strategy, and what worries you about it. If something in your rules is ambiguous, we normally ask you the question first instead of guessing. ## What comes back You get a results page with every trade, the summary figures, and a written list of what the run assumed. Up to three findings are written against the concerns you listed. Tell us what worries you about the strategy, and the results answer those concerns. The results are simulated. They do not represent actual trading. We do not tell you whether a strategy is worth trading. That is your call to make. About 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back from the results. The page shows them greyed out and labelled "Saved for out-of-sample". ## What it costs Creating an account is free, and it has no versions. Every version costs the same, whatever it contains. - Creating an account is free, and so is the Trade Lab replay. - A version is $19, bought one at a time. A version you buy never expires. - Standard is $49 a month: 3 versions, unlimited strategies and full version history. - Premium is $79 a month: 6 versions, unlimited strategies and priority. - Plan versions you have not used by the end of the billing period expire. > Test it, see what breaks, change one thing, test it again. ## How long it takes Two to three business days. ## What a version 2 is The first run of a strategy is version 1. Version 2 is a re-run of the same strategy with some settings changed. It keeps the bias rule and the entry type. If you change either of those, it is a new strategy. The held-back months stay the same in every version, so the versions compare like for like. A finding can describe the next version in words, with a button that opens the builder prefilled. The button promises a test, never a better result. - **Version**: One run of a strategy, priced at $19 or one of your plan’s versions. - **Strategy**: A bias rule and an entry type, plus every version you test on them. - **Finding**: A short note, written against a concern you listed, saying what the run showed. ## Questions and answers ### How much does it cost to get a strategy backtested? A version is $19, and the Trade Lab replay is free with an account. Standard is $49 a month for 3 versions and Premium is $79 a month for 6. ### How long does a backtest take? Two to three business days. ### Which markets can you test? CME futures only: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC). Gold is ordered on its own, never together with an index. ### Do you tell me whether my strategy is worth trading? No. You get the figures, every trade and a written account of what the run assumed. Drawing a conclusion from that is your job. ### What if my rules are unclear? We normally ask you the question first. Describe the rules the way you would explain them to another trader. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Best futures backtesting tools in 2026 Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/best-futures-backtesting-tools-2026 **The right futures backtesting tool depends on the job: build it yourself, step through history by hand, or hand the rules to someone who runs them for you.** ## The short answer There is no single best tool. The tools below do four different jobs, and the right one depends on which job you have. We sell one of them, so we describe it the same way as the others: what it does, and where it stops. Prices and limits come from each vendor’s own page, read in October 2026. Where a page did not say, the table says “Not stated” and you should check the vendor. - **DIY platform**: Charting software where you build and run the test yourself. - **Code**: A programming library. You write the strategy and supply the data. - **Replay and journal**: Tools that show history bar by bar so you trade it by hand and log the result. - **Done-for-you**: You describe the rules and the test is run for you. > Pick the tool by the job: build the test, trade the history by hand, or hand the rules over. ## The comparison Figures are as of October 2026, from the vendors’ own pages. “Check the vendor” means the page did not show it. ## Tool by tool TradingView is a charting platform with a strategy tester. It is good for looking at a chart and trying an idea fast. Its help says strategy orders are filled using the chart’s OHLC values, so check how a stop and a target inside one bar are handled. Futures data from CME costs extra. NinjaTrader is a futures platform that says backtesting is always free to use. It is good if you want to test and trade in the same place. It asks you to build the test yourself, and its pricing page ties Market Replay to funding a live account. TradeStation is a broker platform with a strategy tester, and its help pages describe futures minute data going back ten years or more. It suits someone who already has an account there and is ready to learn the platform. Check the vendor for what it costs. MultiCharts is a desktop platform. Its free plan includes backtesting and sample history, but no market data. It suits people who write their own strategies. It does not do it for you. Backtrader is a Python framework. It is open source and gives you complete control. You write the code and bring the data, so it is not for anyone who does not program. FX Replay lets you step through history and practise by hand. It is good for building feel for a setup. Its free plan is limited, and it is not a way to run fixed rules over ten years. Tradezella is a journal with manual bar-by-bar backtesting and replay. It is good for reviewing your own trades. Replay is on its Pro and Ultra plans, and it does not run fixed rules for you. Trade Ideas is built around stock scanning and signals. Its pricing page lists backtesting on the Premium plan and says nothing about futures. It is a different job from futures backtesting. CE Market Solutions is done-for-you. You describe your rules in plain language and get every trade back with the assumptions written out. It is $19 a version, and the replay Lab is free with an account. It tests CME futures only, takes two to three business days, and is not for someone who wants to code or watch it run live. ## How to choose If your rules are exact and you want a count of trades without building anything, a done-for-you run fits. If you want to build and rerun tests yourself, a platform or a code library fits. If your rules are still vague, replay first and write them down after. Whichever you use, check the fill assumptions, the costs and the data span before you read any result. ## Questions and answers ### What is the best futures backtesting software? There is no single answer. A DIY platform suits someone who will build the test, a code library suits a programmer, a replay tool suits practice by hand, and a done-for-you service suits exact rules with no coding. ### Can I backtest futures for free? Partly. TradingView has a free Basic plan, NinjaTrader says backtesting is free to use, MultiCharts has a free plan with sample data, and FX Replay has a limited free plan. With us, a version is $19 and the replay Lab is free with an account. ### Do I need to code to backtest futures? Not always. Backtrader is Python, and MultiCharts supports C#, VB .NET and Python in its free plan. With our service you describe the rules in plain language. ### How are fills handled in different tools? It differs, so read each tool’s own documentation. TradingView says strategy orders fill using the chart’s OHLC values. In ours, a target fills on touch at the exact price, a stop fills at the stop plus slippage, and a stop wins a tie. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Free alternatives to FX Replay for futures Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/free-fx-replay-alternatives **Our Trade Lab, TradingView’s Bar Replay and the free plans of FX Replay and Tradezella all replay history; they differ in what is free, data and limits.** ## The short answer FX Replay has a free plan, but it is limited. Other ways to replay futures history for free or close to it are our Trade Lab, TradingView’s Bar Replay, and the trial or free tiers some journal tools offer. They differ in what is free, how much data they cover and where they stop. We run the Lab, so we describe it the same way as the others. Facts about other tools are from their own pages, read in October 2026. - **Replay**: Past data shown one bar at a time, with later bars hidden. - **Paper trading**: Placing orders against a simulated account, not a real one. - **Data retention**: How long a tool keeps your saved sessions. It is not the span of market data. ## What is free, side by side As of October 2026, from each vendor’s own pages. “Not stated” means the page did not show it. ## Our Trade Lab The Lab is a bar-by-bar replay with paper trading for NQ, ES and gold (GC), as 1-minute data. You pick a market and a start date and step forward. The server never sends a bar later than the current one, and a replay cannot be moved backward. You can draw on the chart, keep a journal of each decision and place paper orders. It is free with an account and a verified email. Its limits are plain: it replays history only, there is no live data, and paper fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars, so they approximate live fills. ## FX Replay FX Replay lets you practise by hand on history. Its free Beginner plan allows two backtesting sessions, one indicator and 50 trades per session, and keeps sessions for a week. Its pricing page lists futures and CME data on the Pro plan. The page’s own FAQ shows different monthly prices from its plan cards, so check the vendor for current ones. ## Tradezella Tradezella is a journal with manual bar-by-bar backtesting. Its pricing page shows no free plan and states no free trial length. Trade replay is on the Pro and Ultra plans, not Essential. The page states “11+ years of historical data” and lists futures among the markets. ## TradingView Bar Replay TradingView’s Bar Replay lets you pick a starting bar, press play, speed it up or step one bar at a time. Its help says the available history depends on the symbol and the interval, and that intraday can be limited by plan. Its replay limits do not apply to continuous futures charts, which have their own intraday limits. The pricing page lists Bar Replay under Essential and above, and gives the free Basic plan 180 days of intraday history. Real-time and intraday CME data is added separately. Whether Basic includes Bar Replay was not clear from the pages we read, so check before you plan around it. ## What to check before you rely on a free replay Four questions settle most of it. - How far back does the data go for the market you trade? - What bar size is the data? A rule about minutes needs minute bars. - What does a paper fill assume? Ours is modelled on 1-minute bars. - What is limited on the free plan: sessions, trades, indicators or history? > Free replay tools differ in what is free. Check whether the data, the sessions or the history is the limit. ## Questions and answers ### Is there a free alternative to FX Replay for futures? Yes. Our Trade Lab is a free replay for NQ, ES and GC with an account and a verified email. TradingView’s Bar Replay is another option, with its own plan and data limits. ### Does FX Replay have a free plan? Its pricing page shows a free Beginner plan with 2 backtesting sessions, 1 indicator and 50 trades per session. It lists futures and CME data on the Pro plan. ### Can I replay NQ futures for free? In our Lab you can, bar by bar on 1-minute NQ data from June 2, 2016. You need an account with a verified email. ### Can TradingView Bar Replay be used on futures? Its help says replay can be used on futures and that its replay limits do not apply to continuous futures charts, which have their own intraday limits. CME data is added separately. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Can ChatGPT backtest a trading strategy? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/can-chatgpt-backtest-a-trading-strategy **ChatGPT can help write and explain a backtest, but on its own it cannot supply verified price data or exact fills, so the numbers need a run on real data.** ## The short answer Partly. An AI assistant such as ChatGPT can help with the thinking around a backtest: it can turn your rules into a clear checklist, point out where they are ambiguous, draft code and explain what a figure means. A backtest also needs verified price data, a simulation that follows your rules literally, a cost model and a record of every trade. A chat window on its own supplies none of those. The numbers have to come from a run on real data. - **Backtest**: A run of fixed trading rules over past market data, producing a record of every trade the rules would have taken. - **Fill**: The price at which an order is assumed to execute. - **Look-ahead**: A rule or a line of code that uses information which did not exist yet at the moment it acts. - **Data source**: Where the price bars come from. Its bar size, history and treatment of contract rolls decide what can be tested. ## What an AI assistant can do Used as a helper, it can save time on the parts that are about language and code. - Restate your rules back in plain words, so you can see whether it understood them. - Find the places where a rule can be read two ways, such as whether a time range includes its last minute. - Draft code for a platform’s scripting language or for Python. - Explain terms and figures, such as R, drawdown or expectancy, in simple language. - Suggest questions to ask of a result, such as how it looks year by year. ## What it cannot do on its own It cannot hand you verified price bars. If it states how a strategy would have done, that statement is text. It is not the output of a simulation on real data unless a tool actually ran one, and even then the data and the fill rules behind it decide whether you can trust the answer. Code it writes can contain mistakes you cannot see by reading it. A rule can quietly use information from after the moment it fires. A fill can be placed at a price that never traded. You find those by running the code on data you trust and reading the trades. > A backtest result has to come from a run on real price data. A number that was only written out in a chat is not one. ## Why fills and costs change the answer Two people can run the same rules and get different results because their fill rules differ. Where does an entry fill? What happens when the stop and the target are in the same bar? What does a gap do? In our method a target fills on touch at the exact price. A signal that appears when a bar closes can first be acted on at the next bar’s open. A stop fills at the stop price plus slippage, or at the bar’s own open if price gapped through it. When a stop and a target share a bar on a timeframe above one minute, the 1-minute bars decide which was hit first, and if they share a 1-minute bar the stop is taken. Costs matter just as much. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. A result with no stated costs is a result no account could have had. ## If you use an AI assistant anyway A few habits keep it useful. - Ask it to list every assumption it made about fills, costs and time zones. - Run the code on data you know, and compare a few trades against the chart by hand. - Check every input for look-ahead: could this have been known at that bar? - Read the trades, not only the summary. ## How we do it You describe your rules in plain language, the way you would explain them to another trader. If something is ambiguous, we normally ask you the question first. We run them on historical CME futures data licensed from Databento, with the assumptions written out, and you get every trade back. A version is $19. A run takes two to three business days. ## Questions and answers ### Can ChatGPT backtest a trading strategy? It can help write the rules, draft code and explain results. A backtest itself needs verified price data and a simulation that follows the rules literally, which an assistant does not supply on its own. ### Can ChatGPT write backtesting code? It can draft code. You still have to run it on data you trust, check the fill rules it assumed and read the trades it produces. ### Can ChatGPT give me historical futures data? On its own it cannot supply verified price bars. Use a licensed data source and check its bar size, history and treatment of contract rolls. ### Is a backtest written by AI reliable? That depends on the data, the fill rules and the costs, not on who wrote the code. Each one has to be stated and checked. ### Do I need to code to backtest with your service? No. Describe your rules in plain language. If something is ambiguous, we ask rather than guess. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to backtest a trading strategy with AI Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-backtest-a-trading-strategy-with-ai **Use AI to sharpen the rules and draft code, then run them on real price data with stated fills and costs, and read every trade it produces.** ## What AI is good for here An AI assistant is useful for the language side of a backtest: tightening rules, spotting gaps and drafting code. It is not a source of price data and it does not run a simulation by itself. Treat it as a helper at the desk, and let real data and the recorded trades decide. - **Prompt**: The instruction you give the assistant. A precise prompt names the market, the time zone, the bar size and every rule. - **Assumption**: Anything the rules leave open that someone had to decide, such as where an order fills. - **Look-ahead**: Using information that was not available yet at the moment a rule acts. ## Step 1: Write the rules in plain words Write the rules as short sentences. Name the market, the time zone, the entry trigger, the stop, the target and the exit if neither is hit. Do this before you ask the assistant for anything, so the rules are yours. ## Step 2: Have the assistant restate and question them Paste the rules in and ask it to restate them as a checklist, then to list every place they can be read two ways. Typical gaps: whether a time range includes its last minute, whether a target fills on touch or on a close, and what happens when a bar opens beyond the stop. Answer each gap in writing. In our method, for instance, a range written as 18:00–19:00 ET includes both ends, which is 61 one-minute bars, and a target fills on touch at the exact price. > Let the assistant draft. Let real data and the trades decide. ## Step 3: Draft the code, or choose the settings If you code the test yourself, an assistant can draft it in Python or in a platform’s scripting language. Ask it to state its fill assumptions in comments, and to avoid using any value that is not known at the bar where the rule fires. If you do not code, you can skip this step. Our service takes the rules in plain language instead. ## Step 4: Get data the rules can use Intraday rules need intraday bars. Check the bar size, the history, the time zone and how contract months are joined. We use 1-minute CME futures data licensed from Databento, with raw prices and the front month chosen by volume. ## Step 5: Run it and check it by hand Run the test, then open a few trades and compare them with the chart. Look at trades near contract rolls, near the session open and near time stops. If a trade surprises you, find out why before you trust the totals. ## Step 6: Add costs and read every trade Add commission and slippage before you read results. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Then read the trades, not just the summary. A summary can look tidy over trades you would not recognise. ## Step 7: Change one thing and run again Change one rule at a time and run it again. An assistant can suggest which rule to look at, but a change is only informative if it is the only one. In our service each run is a version, and the versions of a strategy are kept together. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest a trading strategy with AI? AI can help you write and tighten the rules and draft code. The result still has to come from a run on real price data with stated fills and costs. ### What should I ask an AI assistant when backtesting? Ask it to restate your rules, list where they can be read two ways, state its fill assumptions and flag any input that would not be known at the bar where a rule fires. ### Does AI remove the need for data? No. A backtest needs price bars fine enough for the rules, and an assistant does not supply verified ones on its own. ### Can I skip the code? With our service, yes. You describe the rules in plain language and we run them. If something is ambiguous, we normally ask first. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to backtest a trading strategy for free Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-backtest-a-trading-strategy-for-free **You can backtest for free by hand on a chart, with a free platform tier, with your own code, or by replaying history bar by bar, each with its own limits.** ## Four free methods Free methods exist, and each one trades money for something else: time, setup effort, or limits on data and features. Which one fits depends on how exact your rules are and how many trades you need. - **Manual backtest**: Going through past charts by hand and recording each trade your rules would have taken. - **Bar replay**: A chart that shows past data one bar at a time, so you cannot see what comes next. - **Paper trading**: Placing orders against a simulated account instead of a real one. - **Sample size**: The number of trades behind a figure. ## Method 1: By hand on a chart Scroll back, find each setup your rules describe, and write down the entry, stop, target and result. It costs nothing and it forces you to read every trade. The limits are time and sample size. A few weeks of charts give you few trades, and a few trades say little. It is also easy to let the next candle influence the call. ## Method 2: A replay, so you cannot see ahead A replay hides the future. TradingView describes its Bar Replay as a way to “simulate past price movements for strategy testing,” and notes that intraday history can be limited by plan. Check the vendor for what your plan includes. Our Trade Lab is a free bar-by-bar replay for NQ, ES and GC. You pick a start date and step forward through 1-minute bars. No later bar is loaded, you can draw, journal each decision and place paper orders, and it needs an account with a verified email. It replays history only, and no real order is ever placed. > Free is fine if the rules, the data and the costs are right. Free does not make a wrong test right. ## Method 3: A free platform tier Some charting platforms include a results report on a free tier. TradingView lists a Basic plan at $0 forever. Which backtesting features sit on which plan is the vendor’s to say, so check its plan table before you plan around one. Whatever the platform, read its fill rules. They are part of the result. ## Method 4: Your own code with free data If you can code, you can write the simulation yourself in Python. The code is free. The difficulty is the data. Check the bar size, how far back it goes, the time zone, and how contract months are joined. A futures series that ignores rolls can make a roll look like a trade. ## What free methods tend to leave out Check each one for the same four things: exact fills, costs, contract rolls and held-back months. Free tools often leave these to you. A backtest without costs shows a result no account could have had, and a backtest that never held any months back has only been checked against the data it was built on. On our service a version is $19, and it comes with the assumptions written out and about 30% of months, spread across every year, held back. See the page on what free covers for the details. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest a trading strategy for free? Yes. You can go through charts by hand, use a replay, try a free platform tier or write your own code. Each has limits on data, fills or the number of trades. ### Is a manual backtest reliable? It can be, if you record every trade your rules describe and cannot see what comes next. The sample is usually small, which limits what the result can say. ### What is a bar replay? A chart that shows past data one bar at a time with later bars hidden. Ours is free for NQ, ES and GC, with an account and a verified email. ### What data can I use for a free futures backtest? Any data you trust. Check its bar size, its history, its time zone and how it joins contract months before you rely on it. ### Do free tools include costs? That depends on the tool. Check whether commission and slippage can be set, and set them before you read a result. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to backtest a trading strategy in TradingView Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-backtest-a-trading-strategy-in-tradingview **In TradingView you apply a strategy to a chart and read its results report; the result depends on the chart data, fill rules and properties you set.** ## The steps TradingView shows a strategy’s results in a results report in the bottom panel of the chart. The strategy is a script, written in TradingView’s Pine Script language or taken from its library. The steps are short. - Open a chart of the market and the bar size your rules use. - Add a strategy to the chart, or write your rules as a Pine Script strategy. - Open the strategy’s properties and set the order size, commission and slippage. - Read the results report and its list of trades. - Check a few trades against the chart by hand. - **Results report**: The panel under the chart that lists the simulated trades and their summary figures. - **Pine Script**: TradingView’s scripting language, used to write indicators and strategies. - **Broker emulator**: The part of the platform that decides how a strategy’s orders fill on historical bars. - **Bar magnifier**: An option that uses lower-timeframe bars to decide fills inside a historical bar. ## The properties that matter The properties page lets you set commission as a percentage of value, per contract or per order, applied to entries and exits. Slippage is set in ticks and is added to the fill price of market and stop orders. By default, limit orders fill as soon as their price is touched, and a setting lets you require price to pass the limit by a number of ticks. Set these before you read any result. A results report with no commission and no slippage shows a result no account could have had. ## How TradingView decides fills By default the broker emulator uses only the chart’s own bars. A strategy runs once per bar at the close, and its orders fill at the next bar’s open. Inside a bar it has to guess the order of the prices. TradingView’s documentation says the emulator assumes the price moved open, high, low, close when the open is closer to the high, and open, low, high, close when the open is closer to the low. It also assumes there are no gaps inside a bar. If price crosses an order’s level in the gap between bars, the order fills at the next bar’s open. > Read the fill rules of any platform before you trust its report. They are part of the result. ## Bar magnifier and its limits The bar magnifier retrieves prices from a lower timeframe to decide what happened inside a historical bar. TradingView’s documentation says it is available on its Premium and Ultimate plans. Scripts can request at most 200,000 bars of a lower timeframe, so early bars may lack the extra detail and fall back to the default assumptions. The documentation also says that on the default range individual data is kept for up to the latest 9000 trades. Intraday history can be limited by plan, too. Check the vendor for what your plan includes. ## What to check for futures Futures add contract expiry. Find out how the symbol you chart joins contract months, and whether its prices are back-adjusted. That is set by the data behind the chart, so read the vendor’s notes. A roll that is treated as a price move can trigger an entry or hit a stop that never happened. Then check how the platform treats a same-bar tie, where a stop and a target sit in one bar. Our method uses 1-minute bars to decide which was hit first, and takes the stop if both are in the same 1-minute bar. Neither approach is wrong. They are different assumptions, and you should know which one you have. ## When a different route fits If you do not want to write a script, or you want held-back months and every assumption written out, our service runs rules written in plain language on 1-minute CME data. A version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Can you backtest futures in TradingView? A strategy can be applied to a chart of a market. What the report means depends on the data behind that chart and the fill assumptions, so check the vendor for futures data on your plan. ### Does TradingView include commission and slippage? It has properties for both. Commission can be a percentage, a per-contract amount or a per-order amount. Slippage is in ticks and is added to market and stop fills. ### What is the bar magnifier? An option that uses lower-timeframe bars to decide fills inside a historical bar. TradingView’s documentation says it is available on its Premium and Ultimate plans. ### Is TradingView backtesting free? TradingView lists a Basic plan at $0 forever. Which backtesting features each plan holds is for the vendor to say, so check its plan table. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to backtest a trading strategy for beginners Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-backtest-a-trading-strategy-for-beginners **Start with one rule you can say in two sentences, run it on past data with costs, read every trade it takes, and change one thing at a time.** ## What you are doing A backtest asks a plain question: if I had followed these exact rules on past prices, which trades would I have taken, and how did each one end? You write the rules, a tool applies them to old data, and you read the record it gives back. It does not predict anything. Simulated results are not actual trading. They show what the rules would have done on the history you tested. - **Rule**: One instruction with a single reading, such as when to enter, where the stop goes or when to exit. - **Stop**: The price at which a trade is closed at a loss. - **Target**: The price at which a trade is closed to take a gain. - **Bar**: A summary of a stretch of time: the open, the high, the low and the close. ## Step 1: Pick one simple idea Choose one setup you can describe in two sentences. A previous-day-high break, an opening-range break and a moving-average cross are common starting points. Skip the idea that needs a long list of conditions. Each condition removes trades and adds ways to be wrong. > Start with one rule you can say in two sentences. Add nothing until you have read every trade it produced. ## Step 2: Write it so it cannot be misread Name the market, the time zone, the entry, the stop, the target and what happens if neither is hit. Then ask of each sentence: could someone read this another way? If so, tighten it. ## Step 3: Choose the data and the market Use bars fine enough for the rules. A rule about the first minutes after the open needs minute bars. Pick one market to begin with. On our data, NQ and ES run from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. ## Step 4: Set the costs Add commission and slippage before you run anything. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. A result with no costs is one no account could have had. ## Step 5: Run it and read every trade Run the rules, then open the trades. Check a few against the chart. Look at how many trades there are, and at how they spread across the years. Read the figures next to the count, because a figure from a handful of trades says little. ## Step 6: Hold some months back, then change one thing Set aside part of the history before you look at results, and test the finished rules on it once. On our service about 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back for each strategy. Then change one rule at a time and run again. If you change three things at once, you cannot tell which one moved the result. ## Where to practise Our Trade Lab is a free bar-by-bar replay on real NQ, ES and GC data, with paper orders and a journal. It needs an account with a verified email. For a full run, describe the rules in plain language and we test them. A version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do beginners backtest a trading strategy? Write one simple rule so it has one reading, run it on past data with costs, read every trade, and change one thing at a time. ### How much data do I need? Enough trades that no single trade decides the result. Read the trade count next to every figure. ### Do I need to code to backtest? Not with our service. Describe the rules in plain language, and if something is ambiguous, we ask rather than guess. ### Can a backtest tell me if a strategy will do well? No. It shows what the rules would have done on past data. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. ### What mistakes should beginners avoid? Leaving out costs, and adding so many conditions that few trades remain. Both make a result look different from what an account would see. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Can I backtest for free? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/can-i-backtest-for-free **Partly: on our service the Trade Lab replay is free with an account and a verified email, and a version is $19.** ## The short answer Yes, in a few ways. This page covers what free includes at CE Market Solutions and where it stops. For other free methods, such as going through charts by hand, see how to backtest a trading strategy for free. - **Strategy**: A bias rule and an entry type, plus every version you test on them. - **Version**: One run of a strategy, priced at $19 or one of your plan’s versions. - **Replay**: Past data shown one bar at a time, with later bars hidden. - **Paper trade**: An order placed against a simulated account instead of a real one. ## Free: an account Creating an account is free. A version, one run of your rules, is $19 or one of your plan’s versions. You describe your rules in plain language, and you get back every trade with the assumptions written out. About 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back for your own check. > Free covers an account and the replay Lab. Every version is $19, or one of your plan’s versions. ## Free: the Trade Lab replay The Trade Lab is a free bar-by-bar historical replay and paper-trading tool for NQ, ES and gold (GC) futures. You choose a market and a start date and step forward one 1-minute bar at a time. No later bar is loaded. You can draw on the chart, journal each decision and place paper orders. It needs an account with a verified email. It replays history, so there is no live data and no real order is ever placed. It is a replay, not a backtest: you make each decision yourself, so the sample is only as large as the days you step through. ## What is not free Each version is $19, bought one at a time, and a version you buy never expires. Standard is $49 a month for 3 versions, unlimited strategies and full version history. Premium is $79 a month for 6 versions, with unlimited strategies and priority. Plan versions you have not used by the end of the billing period expire. A run takes two to three business days. ## Free elsewhere Other tools have free tiers too. TradingView, for example, lists a Basic plan at $0 forever. Which backtesting features each plan includes is for the vendor to say, so check its plan table before you rely on one. Whatever tool you use, check four things: how fills are decided, whether costs can be set, how contract rolls are handled and whether any months are held back. ## What free does not change A free run can be as useful as a paid one if the rules, the data and the costs are right. It can be as misleading as a paid one if they are not. The figures are simulated and do not represent actual trading, and we do not tell you whether a strategy is worth trading. That is your call. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest for free? Partly. On our service the Trade Lab replay is free with an account and a verified email. A version is $19. ### How many free backtests do I get? No version is free: each is $19. The Trade Lab replay is free with an account and a verified email. ### Is the Trade Lab really free? Yes. It has no price. You need an account with a verified email. ### What does a version cost? A version is $19, bought one at a time. Standard is $49 a month for 3 versions and Premium is $79 a month for 6. ### Is a replay the same as a backtest? No. A backtest runs fixed rules over the history at once. A replay shows the history one bar at a time and you decide as you go. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Does NinjaTrader allow backtesting? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/does-ninjatrader-allow-backtesting **Yes. NinjaTrader says strategy backtesting is free to use, through its Strategy Analyzer, which runs coded NinjaScript strategies over historical data.** ## The short answer Yes. NinjaTrader’s pricing page says the platform is always free to use for advanced charting, strategy backtesting and simulated trading, with no time limit and no funding required. This is as of October 2026, so check the vendor for anything current. Backtesting happens in a tool called the Strategy Analyzer. You open it from the New menu in the Control Center. It runs historical analysis on automated strategies written in NinjaScript. - **Strategy Analyzer**: NinjaTrader’s tool for backtesting, optimizing and walk-forward testing a strategy over historical data. - **NinjaScript**: The code language NinjaTrader strategies are written in. - **Optimization**: Running a strategy many times with different settings to see how the results change. - **Market Replay**: A separate NinjaTrader feature that plays recorded market data back. It is not the same as the Strategy Analyzer. ## What the Strategy Analyzer runs The Strategy Analyzer runs NinjaScript-based strategies. NinjaTrader’s help guide lists what it offers: - Backtesting a strategy. - Optimizing a strategy. - Walk forward optimization. - Multi-objective optimization. - Basket testing of several instruments. - Monte Carlo simulation. ## What you still have to bring The analyzer tests a strategy. It does not write one for you. NinjaTrader’s walk-forward guide lists three requirements: access to historical data, a custom NinjaScript strategy, and a good understanding of how the Strategy Analyzer backtests and optimizes. Sample strategies come installed, so you can explore with those first. That means the rules have to exist as code. If you write code, or someone writes it for you, the tool is free to use. If your rules are a paragraph in a notebook, the paragraph has to become a script before anything runs. You also have to supply the cost assumptions and check how the tool fills orders. The help guide has pages on how historical fills are processed and on differences between real-time and backtest results. Read them before you trust a number. > A free backtest tool still needs coded rules, data and cost assumptions. Check each one before you read a result. ## Backtesting is not replay A backtest runs fixed rules over history all at once. Market Replay plays recorded data back so you can watch it. NinjaTrader’s pricing page lists Market Replay among the features that unlock after funding, so it is not part of the no-funding backtesting offer. For the difference between the two ideas, see our explainer on backtesting, forward testing and replay. ## Where a done-for-you service fits We are a different kind of tool. You describe the rules in plain language, and we run them on CME futures history and send back every trade with the assumptions that were used. There is no code and no platform to install. A version is $19. Turnaround is two to three business days. We do not offer live trading, and we do not tell you whether a strategy is worth trading. ## Questions and answers ### Is NinjaTrader backtesting free? NinjaTrader’s pricing page says strategy backtesting is always free to use, with no time limit and no funding required. Check the vendor for the current terms. ### Do I need to code to backtest in NinjaTrader? The Strategy Analyzer runs NinjaScript-based strategies, so the strategy has to exist as code. NinjaTrader installs sample strategies you can use to explore. ### Can I do walk-forward testing in NinjaTrader? Yes. Walk Forward Optimization is a backtest type in the Strategy Analyzer. NinjaTrader’s guide says it needs historical data and a custom NinjaScript strategy. ### Does NinjaTrader include Market Replay for free? Its pricing page lists Market Replay among the features that unlock after funding. Check the vendor for what your account includes. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Is FX Replay better than TradingView? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/is-fx-replay-better-than-tradingview **Neither is better across the board: FX Replay is built around replay sessions and a journal, TradingView around charts, a Strategy Tester and Bar Replay.** ## The short answer It depends on the job. The two tools overlap, but they were built around different things. FX Replay’s pricing page is organised around backtesting sessions, replay and a journal. TradingView’s support pages describe a Strategy Tester that runs scripts, and a separate Bar Replay. Pick by the question you are asking. Everything about other tools here was read from vendor pages in October 2026. Check the vendor for anything current. - **Strategy Tester**: TradingView’s tool for running a strategy script over a chart’s history. - **Bar Replay**: TradingView’s feature for starting at a past bar and moving forward through the chart. - **Deep Backtesting**: A TradingView mode that tests over all available history for a symbol, not only what is loaded on the chart. - **Paper trading**: Placing orders against a simulated account instead of a real one. ## What TradingView gives you TradingView has a free Basic plan. Its pricing page shows paid plans from $12.95 a month billed annually, as of October 2026. Extra real-time and intraday data for exchanges such as CME is added separately and needs a paid plan or a trial. The Strategy Tester fills orders using the chart’s open, high, low and close values. The regular test uses only the data loaded on the chart. Deep Backtesting uses all available history for the symbol. It needs a Premium or higher plan and is capped at two million bars and one million trades. Bar Replay lets you pick a start bar and press play or step forward one bar at a time. One limit matters for practice: TradingView says trading orders are executed using real-time data, including in Paper Trading. So an order placed during a replay does not fill against the history you are replaying. ## What FX Replay gives you FX Replay has a free plan. Its page shows 2 backtesting sessions and 1 indicator on that plan, and a journal on every plan. Futures and CME data is listed on the Pro plan only. Its paid plans add things like rewind price, more sessions and charts, and Monte Carlo and risk-to-reward simulators. The pricing page shows figures that disagree with each other, so we do not quote a price. Check the vendor. > Compare tools by the job: a scripted test over history, or practice one bar at a time. They answer different questions. ## Different jobs A scripted test, such as TradingView’s Strategy Tester, needs rules written as code. It returns a count of trades and statistics. It answers what exact rules would have done. A replay tool answers how a setup looks and how you handle it as the chart unfolds. You make each decision yourself, so the sample is only as big as the time you spend. Some people use both. Replay to find a setup, a test to count it. We cover that loop in our explainer on backtesting, forward testing and replay. ## Where our free replay sits Our Trade Lab is a free replay and paper-trading tool for NQ, ES and gold (GC) futures. You need an account with a verified email. You step forward through 1-minute bars, the server never sends a later bar, and paper fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars. It replays history only. There is no live data and no real order is ever placed. ## Questions and answers ### Is FX Replay better than TradingView for futures? They do different jobs, so there is no single answer. FX Replay lists futures and CME data on its Pro plan only. TradingView adds CME data separately and needs a paid plan or a trial for it. Check each vendor. ### Does TradingView have a replay feature? Yes. Bar Replay starts at a chosen historical bar and moves forward by play or one bar at a time. TradingView says orders in it use real-time data, including Paper Trading. ### Is FX Replay free? It has a free plan. Its pricing page shows 2 backtesting sessions and 1 indicator on that plan. Paid plans add more. ### Is there a free replay tool for futures? Yes. Our Trade Lab is free with an account and a verified email, for NQ, ES and gold (GC) futures. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Best backtesting software for beginners Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/best-backtesting-software-for-beginners **Beginners can start with a free platform tier, a free replay tool or a done-for-you service, depending on whether they code, practise or hand it off.** ## Start from what you want to do There is no single answer, because beginners want different things. Some want to learn to code a strategy. Some want to practise reading a chart. Some want their rules tested and do not want to build a tool. So the tools below are grouped by the job. There are no star ratings and no scoring of the tools. Facts about other tools were read from vendor pages in October 2026, so check the vendor for anything current. - **Platform strategy tester**: A charting platform with a built-in tool that runs a coded strategy over history. - **Replay tool**: A tool that shows past data one bar at a time so you can practise decisions. - **Done-for-you**: A service that runs your rules for you and sends the results back. ## Four kinds of tool Each kind answers a different question. - Platform strategy testers, such as TradingView’s Strategy Tester and NinjaTrader’s Strategy Analyzer. You write the strategy as a script and the platform runs it. - Replay tools, such as FX Replay, TradingView’s Bar Replay and our free Trade Lab. You step through history and decide as you go. - Code libraries. You write the whole test yourself, and you source the data and set the fills and costs. - Done-for-you services, such as ours. You describe the rules and get the trades back. ## What a beginner should check in any tool Whatever you choose, ask the same questions. Which bar size does it use? How does it fill an order? What happens at a contract roll? Are commission and slippage included, and can you change them? These are the places a result goes wrong without anyone noticing. Our explainers on data, costs and common mistakes go through each. Then check the limits of the free option you are looking at. NinjaTrader says backtesting is free to use, but the Strategy Analyzer needs a coded strategy and historical data. TradingView’s free Basic plan adds CME data separately, and Deep Backtesting needs a Premium or higher plan. FX Replay’s free plan shows 2 backtesting sessions and 1 indicator, and lists futures and CME data on its Pro plan only. None of those limits is a flaw. They are the price of free. Knowing them up front saves a beginner from learning them halfway through a test. > Pick the tool by the job: write code, practise by hand, or hand the rules to someone else. ## What ours does not do We test CME futures only: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC). We do not offer live trading or a platform. A version takes two to three business days. We do not tell you whether a strategy is worth trading. If you want to learn to code, a platform tester is the better route for that goal. If you want rules checked without writing code, a done-for-you run fits. If you want practice, replay does. ## Questions and answers ### Do I need to code to backtest? Not always. Platform testers such as TradingView’s Strategy Tester and NinjaTrader’s Strategy Analyzer run coded strategies. Replay tools and our done-for-you service need no code. ### Is there free backtesting software for futures? There are free options of different kinds. NinjaTrader says backtesting is free to use. TradingView has a free Basic plan. FX Replay has a free plan. Our backtest is $19 a version, and the Trade Lab replay is free. Each has limits, so read them. ### What should a beginner check first? The bar size, how orders are filled, how contract rolls are handled and whether costs are included. ### Can I practise without risking money? Yes. Replay and paper trading use history and no real order is placed. Our Trade Lab is free with a verified email. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Futures backtesting free Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/futures-backtesting-free **Free futures backtesting is a free platform tier you code against or a free replay tool you step through; our backtest is $19 a version.** ## What free can mean Free backtesting is not one thing. It can be a platform that costs nothing to use, or a replay tool you step through by hand. Each leaves something out. Facts about other tools here were read from vendor pages in October 2026. Check the vendor for anything current. - **Free tier**: A plan that costs nothing and carries limits that paid plans lift. - **Replay session**: One run through a stretch of history, one bar at a time. - **Version**: One run of a strategy on our service. - **Held-back months**: Months kept out of the results so part of the history stays unseen. ## Free platform tiers NinjaTrader’s pricing page says the platform is always free to use for advanced charting, strategy backtesting and simulated trading, with no time limit and no funding required. The Strategy Analyzer runs coded NinjaScript strategies, so you need the strategy as code and the historical data. TradingView has a free Basic plan. Deep Backtesting needs a Premium or higher plan, and extra real-time and intraday data for exchanges such as CME is added separately and needs a paid plan or a trial. ## Free replay FX Replay has a free plan with 2 backtesting sessions and 1 indicator. Futures and CME data is listed on its Pro plan only. TradingView’s Bar Replay lets you step through a chart’s history, but TradingView says orders in it use real-time data, including Paper Trading. Our Trade Lab is free with an account and a verified email. It covers NQ, ES and gold (GC) as 1-minute data. You step forward bar by bar, draw on the chart, keep a journal and place paper orders. Fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars. It replays history only, with no live data. ## What is free here Creating an account is free, and so is the Trade Lab replay. A done-for-you backtest is not: you describe your rules in plain language, and a version is $19. You get back every trade, the summary figures and a written list of what the run assumed. About 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back from the results. A version takes two to three business days. We test CME futures only: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC). The results are simulated and do not represent actual trading. > Free tools cost something else: your time to write rules, source data and set costs. Check what the free tier leaves out. ## Where free stops Free platform tiers usually leave the work of coding and data to you. Free replay is limited by how much time you spend stepping through bars. Our backtest costs $19 a version. Whichever you use, check the bar size, the costs and how contract rolls are handled. Our explainers on data and costs cover those. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest futures for free? Yes, in a few ways. NinjaTrader says backtesting is free to use. TradingView and FX Replay have free plans. Our backtest is $19 a version, and the Trade Lab replay is free with an account. ### Is there a free futures replay tool? Yes. Our Trade Lab is free with an account and a verified email, for NQ, ES and GC futures. ### What does a version include? Every trade, the summary figures and the assumptions, with about 30% of months held back. ### Why is free backtesting limited? Every free option leaves something out: coding, data, or session counts. Read the limits before you rely on a result. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # NinjaTrader backtesting Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ninjatrader-backtesting **NinjaTrader backtests NinjaScript strategies in its Strategy Analyzer, with optimization, walk forward and Monte Carlo options, on data you load.** ## How it runs NinjaTrader’s backtesting lives in the Strategy Analyzer. You open it from the New menu in the Control Center. It runs historical analysis on automated strategies written in NinjaScript. You pick a strategy, choose a backtest type, and run it over historical data. For a walk-forward run, “Walk Forward Optimization” is one of the backtest types. Facts here were read from NinjaTrader’s help guide in October 2026, so check the vendor for anything current. - **Strategy Analyzer**: The NinjaTrader tool that backtests and optimizes strategies. - **NinjaScript**: The code language NinjaTrader strategies are written in. - **Walk forward optimization**: Tuning settings on one window of history and testing them on the window after it, then sliding forward. - **Basket testing**: Testing a strategy on several instruments in one run. ## What it can do The help guide lists these functions under the Strategy Analyzer: - Backtest a strategy. - Optimize a strategy. - Walk forward optimize a strategy. - Multi-objective optimization. - Basket testing of multiple instruments. - Monte Carlo simulation. - Reviewing performance results and understanding backtest logs. ## What it needs The walk-forward guide lists what a user needs: access to historical data, a custom NinjaScript strategy, and a good understanding of the Strategy Analyzer. Sample strategies come installed with NinjaTrader. So there are three jobs before the first run. Write the rules as code. Load data that covers the markets and years you want. Decide the costs and check how the tool applies them. NinjaTrader’s pricing page says strategy backtesting is free to use, with no time limit and no funding required. ## Limits to know about The tool tests coded strategies, so ambiguity in your rules turns into a coding decision. If a rule can be read two ways, the code picks one without telling you. NinjaTrader’s help guide has pages on how historical fills are processed and on differences between real-time and backtest results. Read both. Every backtest tool has fill rules, and a number means little until you know them. Optimization also deserves care. Running many settings and keeping whichever one looks most favourable fits the settings to the history. Walk-forward testing and held-back data exist to check for that. > Every backtest tool has fill rules. Read how yours handles historical fills before you trust a number. ## Questions to ask of any tool Which bar size does it test on? What happens when a stop and a target sit inside the same bar? How does it handle a contract roll? Does it include commission and slippage? Can you see every trade? Our explainers on same-bar fills, data and costs go through why each matters. ## Where a done-for-you service fits We are the alternative to writing the code. You describe the rules in plain language, and we run them on CME futures data and return every trade with the assumptions used. A version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I backtest in NinjaTrader? Open the Strategy Analyzer from the New menu in the Control Center, choose a NinjaScript strategy and a backtest type, and run it over historical data. ### What does the Strategy Analyzer do? It runs historical analysis on NinjaScript-based strategies: backtests, optimization, walk forward optimization, multi-objective optimization, basket testing and Monte Carlo simulation. ### What do I need to run a walk-forward test in NinjaTrader? Access to historical data, a custom NinjaScript strategy, and a good understanding of the Strategy Analyzer, according to NinjaTrader’s guide. ### Is NinjaTrader backtesting free? NinjaTrader’s pricing page says strategy backtesting is always free to use, with no time limit and no funding required. Check the vendor for current terms. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Automated backtesting software Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/automated-backtesting-software **Automated backtesting software runs coded trading rules over historical data without manual clicking and returns the trades and statistics for each run.** ## What it is Automated backtesting software takes trading rules that are written precisely enough for a computer, runs them over historical data, and returns the trades and statistics. You do not click through the chart yourself. The speed is the point. Years of history run in minutes. That makes it possible to test a change, read the trades and test again. - **Automated backtest**: A run of fixed, coded rules over history, with no manual decisions. - **Manual backtest**: Stepping through history by hand and recording what you would have done. - **Strategy script**: The rules written as code, so a platform can run them. ## Two ways to get it The first is a platform with a built-in tester. TradingView’s Strategy Tester runs strategy scripts and fills orders using the chart’s open, high, low and close values. NinjaTrader’s Strategy Analyzer runs NinjaScript strategies, and its help guide lists optimization, walk forward, basket testing and Monte Carlo options. You write or obtain the code. The second is a done-for-you service. You describe the rules in plain language and the service writes and runs the test. That is what we do. Facts about other tools were read from vendor pages in October 2026, so check the vendor for anything current. ## What automation does not fix A computer follows the rules literally. If a rule can be read two ways, the code picks one. If the data skips contract rolls, the test runs on prices nobody could trade. If costs are missing, the result shows a cleaner picture than an account would. Automation makes a test fast. It does not make the rules, the data or the costs right. Those still need checking by a person. > Automation makes a test fast. It does not make the rules, data or costs right. ## Where done-for-you fits You describe your rules the way you would explain them to another trader. If something is ambiguous, we normally ask before we run it. We run the rules on CME futures data: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC). You get a results page with every trade, the summary figures and a written list of what the run assumed. About 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back from the results. A version takes two to three business days. A version is $19. Standard is $49 a month for 3 versions, and Premium is $79 a month for 6. ## What to look for in any tool Check these before you rely on a result: - Rules that can only be read one way. - Costs stated, and a way to change them. - Fill rules written down, including what happens when a stop and a target share a bar. - Contract rolls handled as explicit events, on raw prices. - The trade count next to every figure, and every trade viewable. - Part of the history held back for a later check. ## Questions and answers ### What is automated backtesting? It is running fixed, coded trading rules over historical data with no manual decisions, and getting back the trades and statistics. ### Is automated backtesting more accurate than manual backtesting? It is faster and applies the rules the same way every time. Accuracy still depends on the data, the fill rules and the costs, whichever way you test. ### Do I need to code to use automated backtesting software? Platform testers such as TradingView’s Strategy Tester and NinjaTrader’s Strategy Analyzer run coded strategies. A done-for-you service takes the rules in plain language instead. ### What does a done-for-you backtest cost? On our service a version is $19. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to pass a prop firm evaluation Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-pass-a-prop-firm-evaluation **An evaluation measures whether you can keep to a firm’s fixed rules, so you prepare by writing your own rules down and testing them against those limits.** ## What an evaluation measures A prop firm evaluation is a test account with a set of rules. You trade it, and the firm checks two things: whether your result reaches the target, and whether it stayed inside the limits on the way there. The limits do most of the work. A single day or a single trade that breaks one of them can end the attempt, even if the account was ahead. Every program writes its own rules, so this page does not give figures. Read your program’s rulebook and use its numbers, not anyone else’s. - **Evaluation**: A test account run under a firm’s rules, used to decide whether a trader moves to a funded account. - **Profit target**: The result an evaluation account has to reach. - **Loss limit**: How far the account may fall. It can be fixed from the start or trail the account’s highest balance. - **Consistency rule**: A rule about how the result is spread across days or trades. ## What you can control before you start You cannot control the market. You can control three things: whether you know the rules, whether your own trading rules are written clearly enough to follow under pressure, and how much you risk on each trade. Most evaluation trouble comes from the first and the third. A trader who has not worked out what a trailing limit does, or who risks too much on each trade for the room the limit leaves, runs into the rule rather than the market. ## Turn the limits into things you can test A limit is a distance. A backtest records distances. That is the link. Measure risk in R, the distance from entry to your initial stop. Divide the dollar loss limit by the dollars you risk on one trade and you get the limit in R: how many full stops it holds. A backtest reports its deepest fall in R, so the two can sit side by side. In our reports, max drawdown is the largest fall of cumulative net R below its running peak, in exit order, starting at 0. The findings also show the longest losing streak. Those two numbers are the first thing to compare with a limit. > Nothing you test beforehand can promise an outcome. Testing shows how your rules behaved against limits like yours, on past data. ## Test the rules before you spend on an attempt Write your rules so they have one reading, run them on real futures history with costs on, and read every trade. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Hold some months back. In our service about 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back for each strategy. Those months are the part of the history you did not tune the rules on. If your rules are not exact yet, use a replay first. Our Trade Lab replays NQ, ES and GC bar by bar, with later bars hidden, and it is free with an account and a verified email. ## What a backtest cannot do Simulated results do not represent actual trading. They are built with the benefit of hindsight, and they cannot show how a live day feels after a run of losses. A backtest also uses fixed rules, and an evaluation is traded by a person. That is why the replay and a small forward test matter. They test the part of the job a backtest cannot. ## A short routine Here is the order that keeps the work honest. - Read the program’s rules and write each limit in one plain sentence. - Write your trading rules so they cannot be misread. - Run them with costs, and read every trade. - Compare the deepest fall in R, the longest losing streak and the lowest day with each limit. - Change one thing at a time and run again. ## Questions and answers ### Can a backtest tell me whether I will pass an evaluation? No. A backtest shows what your rules did on past data. It does not predict a future attempt, and simulated results do not represent actual trading. ### What does a prop firm evaluation measure? Whether the account reaches its target while staying inside the firm’s loss limits and any other rules, such as a daily limit or a consistency rule. ### Do I need to know the rules before I backtest? Yes. A limit is only useful as a test if you know exactly how your program measures it, so read the rulebook first. ### Is a replay useful for evaluation practice? It is useful for rules that are not exact yet. You step through history one bar at a time and make each decision yourself. It does not replace a test of fixed rules. ### Does this page name which program to use? No. We do not rate programs or point you to one. Programs differ, and each one’s own rulebook is the source for its numbers. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Trailing drawdown explained Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/trailing-drawdown-explained **A trailing drawdown is a loss limit that rises with your account’s highest balance, so the room you have is measured from the new peak, not from the start.** ## The short version A fixed loss limit sits at one level. Lose down to it and the account is out. A trailing loss limit starts at a level too, but it moves. Each time the account makes a new high, the limit moves up with it. So the room you have is the distance between your highest balance so far and the limit. A good day does not give you more room. It moves the floor up, and the room you started with stays the same size. - **Trailing drawdown**: A loss limit that follows the account’s highest balance upward. - **High-water mark**: The highest balance, or equity, the account has reached so far. - **Fixed drawdown**: A loss limit that stays at one level measured from the starting balance. - **Floor**: The balance at which the loss limit is hit. ## How the floor moves When the balance makes a new high, the floor rises by the same amount as the new high. When the balance falls, the floor stays where it was. In a plain trailing drawdown the floor only moves up. That is why the same string of trades can be fine early and dangerous later. After a long run of gains the floor sits high, and a fall that the account would have absorbed at the start can now reach it. > In a plain trailing drawdown the floor only moves up. Every new high lifts it, and a loss never lowers it. ## Does open profit count? This is where programs differ, and where the rulebook matters most. Some measure the high-water mark on balances after trades close. Some measure it on equity, which includes open profit. If open profit counts, a trade that moves in your favour and then comes back raises the floor even though you closed it flat. You gained nothing and the room you have shrank. Read the exact wording for your program, and do not assume it matches another one. ## How it relates to max drawdown in a backtest Max drawdown in a backtest is the largest fall of the cumulative result below its running peak, starting at 0. A trailing limit is built from the same idea: a running peak and a fall below it. The difference is what each one does. A backtest’s max drawdown is a single number read after the run. A trailing limit is a floor that acts during the run and ends the account when touched. ## Testing a rule against a trailing limit Take a run’s trades in the order they closed and track cumulative net R. The deepest fall below the running peak is the number to hold up against the limit, once the limit is also in R. To put the limit in R, divide the dollar room your program allows by the dollars you risk on one trade. The result is how many full stops the room holds. If you risk less on each trade, the same room holds more of them. Remember that a backtest orders the trades one way. The same trades arriving in a different order could produce a different deepest fall, so a single run is one path, not a limit on the next. ## Questions and answers ### What is a trailing drawdown? It is a loss limit that follows the account’s highest balance upward, so the limit is measured from the new peak rather than from the starting balance. ### Does a trailing drawdown include unrealised profit? It depends on the program. Some measure the high-water mark on equity, which counts open profit, and some on closed balances. Read your program’s wording. ### Is a trailing drawdown the same as max drawdown? They use the same idea, a fall below a running peak. Max drawdown in a backtest is a number read after the run. A trailing drawdown is a live floor that can end the account. ### Does the floor ever stop moving up? Some programs stop it at a stated level, and some do not. We do not give figures because they differ, so check your own rulebook. ### How do I test a strategy against a trailing limit? Put the limit in R, then compare it with the run’s largest fall of cumulative net R below its running peak. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Daily loss limit explained Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/daily-loss-limit-explained **A daily loss limit caps how much an account may lose in one trading day; touch it and the day ends, so the rules must say what a day is and what counts.** ## The short version A daily loss limit is a ceiling on how much the account can lose in a single trading day. It is separate from the overall loss limit. It resets, and the overall limit does not. What happens when you reach it depends on the program. Some lock the account for the rest of the day. Some treat it as the end of the attempt. The rulebook says which. - **Daily loss limit**: The most an account may lose within one trading day. - **Trading day**: The period the program counts as one day. Its start and end are set in the rules. - **Realised loss**: The loss on trades that have closed. - **Open loss**: The loss on a trade that is still open. ## What counts as a day A futures day does not run midnight to midnight. The market trades through the evening, so a program has to say when its day starts and ends, and in which time zone. This matters more than it looks. Two trades an hour apart can fall on different days if the reset sits between them. In our own method every clock time is America/New_York, and the session opens at 18:00 ET. A program can pick a different reset, so check yours. ## Realised or open loss Programs also differ on what counts toward the limit. Some count only closed trades. Some count open loss as well, so a trade that is down but not yet stopped can already use up part of the day. If open loss counts, a wide stop uses room even when it is never hit. That changes what size you can trade for the same limit. > A daily limit is about the lowest day, not the average one. Read the lowest day in your test. ## Turning the limit into a number of R Divide the daily limit in dollars by the dollars you risk on one trade. That is the limit in R: how many full stops fit into one day before it ends. Then look at how many losing trades in a row your rules can take in a single day. If they can take more than the limit holds, the rule will meet the limit before the market has shown you anything about the strategy. ## Testing it on a backtest Every trade in a run has a date, so you can group the trades by trading day and add up each day’s result in R. The lowest day is the one to compare with the limit. Look at how often a day comes close, not only whether one breaks it. Then look at what in the rules produces a bad day. A rule that can re-enter again and again after each stop has no built-in stop for the day. A cap on trades per day or a time stop changes that, and you can test the change as a new version. Costs matter here too. Commission applies to every trade, so a day with many trades pays it many times. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ## Questions and answers ### What is a daily loss limit? It is the most an account may lose within one trading day under the program’s rules, separate from the overall loss limit. ### What happens when I hit the daily loss limit? It depends on the program. Some lock the account until the next day and some end the attempt. The rulebook states which. ### Does open loss count toward the daily loss limit? In some programs it does and in others only closed trades count. Read the wording for yours. ### When does the trading day reset in futures? The program sets the time and the time zone. Futures trade through the evening, so the reset is not midnight by default. Our own session opens at 18:00 ET. ### How can I check a strategy against a daily limit? Group a run’s trades by trading day, add up each day in R, and compare the lowest day with the limit expressed in R. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Prop firm rules explained (futures) Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/prop-firm-rules-explained-futures **Futures prop firm rules combine a profit target, a loss limit, a daily limit and sometimes a consistency rule, and each program sets them differently.** ## The common parts Prop firm programs for futures traders are built from a short list of rules. No two programs set them the same way, so this page explains what each rule does and leaves the numbers to your program’s own rulebook. - A profit target: the result the evaluation account has to reach. - An overall loss limit: how far the account may fall, either fixed or trailing. - A daily loss limit: how much it may lose in one trading day. - A consistency rule: a limit on how much of the result one day or trade may make up. - A contract limit: the most contracts you may hold at once. - Time rules: when you may trade, and when positions must be closed. - **Evaluation**: The test stage, traded on a test account under the firm’s rules. - **Funded account**: The stage after an evaluation, under the firm’s rules for funded traders. - **Contract limit**: A cap on position size, counted in contracts. - **Trailing drawdown**: A loss limit that follows the account’s highest balance upward. ## Evaluation and funded stage Many programs run in two stages. The evaluation tests whether you can reach a target inside the limits. The funded stage has its own rules, which can differ from the evaluation’s. Do not assume the limit you learned in one stage carries over to the other. ## Why the wording matters Two rules can look alike and behave differently. A loss limit can be measured on closed trades or on equity with open profit. A trailing limit can keep trailing or stop at a stated level. A day can reset at one time in one program and another time in another. The words decide the outcome. Read each rule for what it counts, when it resets and what happens when it is touched. > The rules are the environment your strategy trades in. Read the wording of each one before you trade, and again before you test. ## Questions to ask of any rulebook These questions apply to every program, and the answers are in its rules. - Is the loss limit fixed or trailing, and does it count open profit? - When does the trading day start and end, and in which time zone? - Does the daily limit count open loss, or only closed trades? - Is there a consistency rule, and how is it calculated? - What is the contract limit, and does it differ between the evaluation and the funded stage? - Which markets may be traded, and what happens around contract rolls? ## Where a backtest fits A backtest cannot read a rulebook, but it can answer questions the rulebook raises. How deep did the account fall in R? What was the lowest day? How long was the longest losing streak? How were the results spread across days? Our service runs your rules on real CME futures history for ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC), with costs on, and returns every trade. A version is $19. We do not rate programs or point you to one, and we do not tell you whether a strategy is worth trading. ## Questions and answers ### Do all futures prop firms use the same rules? No. They share the same building blocks, such as a target, a loss limit and a daily limit, but each program sets its own figures and wording. ### Where do I find the real rules of a program? In the program’s own rulebook or terms. Use those figures, not figures quoted elsewhere. ### Are the evaluation rules the same as the funded rules? Not necessarily. Many programs have separate rules for each stage, so read both. ### Can a backtest check prop firm rules? Partly. It can show the deepest fall, the lowest day, the longest losing streak and how results were spread. It cannot read the program’s wording for you. ### Do you tell me which prop firm to use? No. We do not rate programs or point you to one. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Backtesting a strategy for a prop firm eval Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/backtesting-a-strategy-for-a-prop-firm-eval **Write down your program’s limits, run your rules with real costs, read the deepest fall in R, the lowest day and longest losing streak, then test again.** ## Start with the limits Before you run anything, copy your program’s limits out of its rulebook, one plain sentence each. You need the overall loss limit and whether it trails, the daily loss limit and when the day resets, any consistency rule, and the contract limit. Do not use limits quoted from somewhere else. Programs differ, and a backtest against the wrong number tells you nothing about your program. - **R**: A trade’s result in units of its initial risk, the distance from entry to stop. A trade stopped at its initial stop is −1.00R. - **Max drawdown**: The largest fall of cumulative net R below its running peak, in exit order, starting at 0. - **Longest losing streak**: The most losing trades in a row. - **Held-back months**: Months set aside from the results so part of the history was not used to build the rules. ## Write the rules so they cannot be misread An evaluation is no place for a rule with two readings. Name the market, the entry, the stop, the target and the exit if neither is hit. Say what happens when a bar opens beyond your stop. In our method that trade is skipped and listed as skipped. ## Turn each limit into a number of R Divide each dollar limit by the dollars you risk on one trade. The result is how many full stops that limit holds. Do it for the overall limit and for the daily limit. This is the step that links the rulebook to the backtest. R is the same whether you trade one contract or several, so the comparison does not change with size. Size only decides how many dollars one R is. > Turn each limit into a number of R. Then check whether the run’s deepest fall in R would have stayed inside it. ## Run it with costs and read the numbers Set the costs before the first run. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Then read four things: the trade count, the max drawdown in R, the longest losing streak, and the lowest day. Group the trades by trading day to find the lowest day. Compare each with its limit. Read the trades too, not only the totals. A trade that surprises you is worth understanding before you trust the figures. ## Keep months back, then change one thing About 30% of months, spread across every year, are held back for each strategy in our service, and any trade open in a held-back month is dropped from the results. Those months are the check on rules you adjusted along the way. If a number is too close to a limit, change one rule, such as the stop distance or the number of trades per day, and run again. Each run is a version. A version is $19. ## What this does not tell you A backtest is a simulation on past data. It does not predict an attempt, and it cannot show the pressure of a live day. Use the Trade Lab replay, free with an account, to practise the decisions bar by bar, and treat a backtest as one input. ## Questions and answers ### Can I backtest a strategy against a trailing drawdown? Yes, in R. Put the limit in R, then compare it with the largest fall of cumulative net R below its running peak in the run. ### What should I look at in a backtest for an evaluation? The trade count, the max drawdown in R, the longest losing streak and the lowest trading day, each against the matching limit. ### Which markets can you backtest for this? CME futures: ES, MES, NQ, MNQ and gold (GC). Gold is ordered on its own, never together with an index. ### How much does it cost? A version is $19. ### Does a backtest tell me I would have passed? No. It shows how the rules behaved against limits you set in R, on past data. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Consistency rule explained Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/consistency-rule-explained **A consistency rule limits how much of your total result a single day or trade may make up, so one large day cannot carry an account to its target.** ## The short version A consistency rule looks at how the result is spread. It takes your largest day, or your largest trade, and compares it with the total. If that one day makes up more of the total than the rule allows, the account does not meet the rule, whatever the total is. The rule does not care how large the result is. It cares how it was built. Programs set their own thresholds and their own wording, so check the rulebook for yours. - **Consistency rule**: A rule limiting how much of the total result one day or trade may make up. - **Largest day**: The trading day with the highest result in the period the rule looks at. - **Total result**: The sum of the results over that period. - **Spread**: How the result is divided across days or trades. ## How it is measured In outline, the rule is a ratio. Take the result of the largest day and divide it by the total result. Compare the answer with the limit the program sets. Programs differ on the details. Some look at days and some at trades. Some count only the evaluation period. Some apply the rule only when you ask to be paid or moved on. The rulebook tells you which. > A consistency rule is a ratio. It looks at how your result is spread across days, not how big the result is. ## Why a program uses one A firm wants to see a trading approach that repeats, not one lucky day. A rule on the spread of the result is a simple way to check that a single large trade did not do all of the work. You do not need to agree with the reason to plan around the rule. It is part of the environment your strategy trades in. ## Early in an attempt, one day is most of the total The ratio has a plain arithmetic feature. When the total is small, one day is a large share of it. On the first day with a result, that day is all of the total. So the rule behaves differently at different stages of an attempt. A spread that looks uneven early can even out as more days arrive, and it can also tip the other way. Read the rule for when it is checked. ## Seeing it in a backtest Every trade in a run has a date, so you can group the trades by trading day and add up each day in R. Then divide the largest day by the total, the same way the rule does. Count the trades behind the numbers as well. A strategy with few trades can have a large share in one day simply because there are few days with trades. A strategy with many trades spreads over more days. The trade count in the findings shows which case you are in. Our service holds back about 30% of months, spread across every year. Reading the spread by year, and across the months that were held back, shows whether the result came from one stretch of the history. ## What a rule like this changes in your plan If your rules take profits in a few large moves, the largest day can be most of the total. If they take many small ones, it usually is not. Neither says anything about the strategy’s worth. It is a fact about how the result is spread, and the rule asks about exactly that. You can test a change, such as a cap on the number of trades per day, as a new version and read the spread again. Each version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### What is a consistency rule in prop trading? It is a rule limiting how much of the total result one day or trade may make up, so the result is spread across days. ### How is a consistency rule calculated? In outline, the result of the largest day divided by the total result, compared with the limit the program sets. The exact method is in the program’s rulebook. ### Does every prop firm have a consistency rule? No. Some programs have one and some do not, and the threshold and wording differ. ### Can a backtest show how consistent a strategy is? It can show how results were spread across days and years, by grouping dated trades. It cannot say whether a program’s rule would be met in a future attempt. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is the 9 EMA and 21 EMA? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-the-9-ema-and-21-ema **The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are exponential moving averages of the close over 9 and 21 bars; the shorter one reacts faster, so traders compare the two.** ## The short answer The 9 EMA is an exponential moving average of the closing price over the last 9 bars. The 21 EMA is the same thing over the last 21 bars. Both are drawn as lines on the chart. The 9 line sits close to price and turns quickly. The 21 line is smoother and turns later. People read the two together: where the lines sit, which one is above, and where they cross. - **EMA**: Exponential moving average. An average of recent closes that gives the newest bars the most weight. - **Period**: The number of bars the average looks back over. In the 9 EMA the period is 9. - **Crossover**: The bar on which a faster average moves from one side of a slower average to the other. - **Bar**: One period of price on a chart: the open, the high, the low and the close. ## How it is calculated Each new EMA value is built from the close and the previous EMA value. The formula is: EMA today = close × k + EMA yesterday × (1 − k), where k = 2 ÷ (period + 1). For the 9 EMA, k is 2 ÷ 10, which is 0.2. For the 21 EMA, k is 2 ÷ 22. A bigger k means the newest close counts for more, which is why the shorter average hugs price. The first EMA value has to start from something, usually a simple average of the first bars. After that, the old values fade out but never fully disappear. That is the difference from a simple average, which drops a bar completely once it leaves the window. ## How people use the pair Most uses come down to three readings. Price above both lines is read as an upward lean, and price below both as a downward lean. The 9 above the 21 is read the same way. A cross of the two lines is read as a change in that lean. Some traders treat the 21 line as a place price may pause on a pullback. Others use the 9 as a trailing guide. These are habits, not rules. The lines describe where price has been. They do not say where it goes next. > An EMA is a smoothed record of past closes. It describes the recent past and says nothing about the next bar. ## What the pair cannot tell you When price moves sideways, two fast averages cross again and again. Each cross looks like a signal and each one can be undone a few bars later. A crossover says the average changed direction. It does not say the move will continue. It also says nothing about size. A cross on a quiet bar and a cross on a wide bar look the same on the chart. And it carries no stop or target. You still have to decide where you are wrong and where you get out. ## The futures angle The period is counted in bars, so the chart timeframe decides what 9 and 21 mean. On a 1-minute chart they cover 9 and 21 minutes. On a daily chart they cover 9 and 21 sessions. Rules built on a pair of averages tend to trade often, and futures costs are flat per contract per side. The more often a rule trades, the more often it pays that cost. In our builder, a moving-average cross is one of the presets you can start from. You can write the rule down and test it on past data, with costs, instead of judging it by eye. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [EMA 9 / 21 cross](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-9-21-cross) - [EMA 9 / 21 with a VWAP filter](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-9-21-with-a-vwap-filter) ## Questions and answers ### What does the 9 EMA tell you? It shows the average of the last 9 closes with the newest bars weighted most. It follows price closely and turns quickly. ### What does the 21 EMA tell you? It shows the same kind of average over 21 bars. It is smoother than the 9 EMA and reacts later to a change in direction. ### What happens when the 9 EMA crosses the 21 EMA? It means the faster average has moved from one side of the slower one to the other. It records that the recent closes changed direction relative to the older ones. It does not say what price does next. ### Is the EMA better than a simple moving average? It is different. An EMA weights recent bars more, so it reacts faster. A simple average weights every bar in the window equally, so it is smoother. ### Can I test a 9 and 21 EMA rule on futures? Yes. Write the rule so it can only be read one way, add commission and slippage, and run it on past data. A backtest shows what the rule would have done, not what it will do. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is the 20 EMA and 50 EMA? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-the-20-ema-and-50-ema **The 20 EMA and 50 EMA are exponential moving averages of the close over 20 and 50 bars, a slower pair that smooths more than the 9 and 21.** ## The short answer The 20 EMA is an exponential moving average of the closing price over the last 20 bars. The 50 EMA is the same over the last 50 bars. Together they give a medium-term picture of where price has been. Next to the 9 and 21, this pair is slower. It ignores more of the small moves and turns later. People use it to read the broader lean of price, and as two levels price sometimes slows down at. - **20 EMA**: An exponential moving average of the close over 20 bars. - **50 EMA**: An exponential moving average of the close over 50 bars. - **Lag**: The delay between a change in price and a change in the average. A longer period has more lag. - **Pullback**: A short move against the larger direction of price. ## How it is calculated The calculation is the same as for any EMA: EMA today = close × k + EMA yesterday × (1 − k), with k = 2 ÷ (period + 1). For the 20 EMA, k is 2 ÷ 21. For the 50 EMA, k is 2 ÷ 51. Because the 50 EMA has the smaller k, each new close moves it less. That is the lag. A longer period gives a smoother line and a later signal. A shorter period gives a rougher line and an earlier one. Neither is free. ## How people use the pair One common reading is the order of the lines. The 20 above the 50 is read as an upward lean, and the 20 below the 50 as a downward lean. A cross of the two is read as the lean changing. Another is to watch how price behaves when it comes back to a line. Some traders look at the 20 as a first place to watch and the 50 as a deeper one. Whether price reacts at either line is something you have to measure, bar by bar. It is not guaranteed by the line being there. > A slower average gives fewer crosses and later ones. Slower does not mean more reliable. It means later. ## What the pair cannot tell you Both lines trail price, so any signal from them arrives after the move has started. By the time the 20 crosses the 50, part of the move is behind you. The pair also cannot tell a trend from a pause. In a sideways market the two lines flatten and tangle, and crosses stop meaning much. It gives no stop and no target, and no view of the size of the move. ## The futures angle A period is counted in bars, so a 50 EMA on a 5-minute chart looks back over 250 minutes of trading. On a daily chart it looks back over 50 sessions. The same number describes very different amounts of time. Futures trade nearly around the clock, and a contract expires. An average that runs across a contract roll mixes the prices of two contracts, which is one reason how the data handles rolls matters. Our method keeps raw, unadjusted prices and holds no trade through a roll. A backtest can tell you what a rule built on these lines would have done in every session of the history, with costs. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [EMA 20 / 50 cross](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-20-50-cross) - [EMA 20 / 50 cross with MACD above zero](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-20-50-cross-with-macd-above-zero) ## Questions and answers ### What is the difference between the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA? The period. The 20 EMA looks back over 20 bars and the 50 EMA over 50. The 20 follows price more closely, and the 50 is smoother and turns later. ### What does it mean when the 20 EMA crosses the 50 EMA? The medium average has moved from one side of the slower average to the other. It records a change in the lean of recent closes. It is not a forecast. ### Is the 50 EMA support or resistance? Some traders watch it as a level where price may slow down or turn. Whether price reacts there is a question for the data. The line alone does not make it so. ### Which timeframe should I use the 20 and 50 EMA on? Any. The period counts bars, so the timeframe sets how much clock time the lines cover. Choose it from the rule you are testing, and test on that same timeframe. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Why is the 200 EMA important? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/why-is-the-200-ema-important **The 200 EMA averages the last 200 closes with recent bars weighted most, so it is a slow line that many traders use to mark the long-run lean of price.** ## The short answer The 200 EMA is an exponential moving average of the close over the last 200 bars. It is one of the slowest lines most traders put on a chart. It matters mostly because traders watch it, and because it describes the longer-term direction better than a short average does. That is a statement about attention and smoothing, not a promise about price. A line is not important because it forces price to react. It is important to the extent that people use it as a shared reference. - **200 EMA**: An exponential moving average of the close over 200 bars. - **Long-run lean**: Which side of a slow average price has mostly been on. Above is read as upward, below as downward. - **Warm-up**: The bars an average needs before its values settle. A 200-period average needs history before it is reliable. - **Reference level**: A price that many people watch, whether or not price reacts to it. ## What it measures The formula is the usual one: EMA today = close × k + EMA yesterday × (1 − k). For 200 bars, k = 2 ÷ 201. Each new close moves the line only a little, so the line is very smooth. That smoothness is the point. The 200 EMA filters out most of the day-to-day noise and shows which side of the longer average price has been living on. It is also why it reacts late. A turn in the line comes long after a turn in price. ## How people use it The simplest use is a filter. Price above the 200 EMA is read as an upward lean, so some traders only look at long setups there. Price below it is read the other way. The line becomes a yes-or-no question about direction. Others watch the line as a place price has paused before. Others look at its slope. Any of these is a rule you could write down and test. None is proven by being popular. > Popular is not the same as predictive. A line that many people watch can matter for that reason alone, and the data has to say whether it does. ## What it cannot tell you The 200 EMA tells you where price has been, not where it goes. Price can sit on one side for a long stretch and then cross it with no warning. It is slow, so it is late at every turn. It also tells you nothing about timing, stops or size. And its meaning changes with the chart. A 200 EMA on a daily chart covers 200 sessions. On a 1-minute chart it covers 200 minutes, a few hours of one session. ## The futures angle A 200-period average needs 200 bars of history before it settles, so a rule built on it cannot trade at the very start of the data. On a 1-minute chart that is 200 minutes. On a daily chart it is 200 sessions. Our NQ and ES data runs from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026, so there is a long history to test a slow filter against. Costs and fills still apply to every trade the filter lets through. Try the filter by hand first, then write it down as a rule. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Price crosses SMA 200](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/price-crosses-sma-200) - [MACD cross with a 200 EMA filter](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-cross-with-a-200-ema-filter) - [Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200)](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/golden-cross-death-cross-sma-50-200) ## Questions and answers ### Why do traders watch the 200 EMA? It is a slow average that shows the longer-term lean of price, and many traders chart it, so it serves as a shared reference. Neither reason means price has to react to it. ### What does it mean when price is above the 200 EMA? Recent closes sit above the long-run average of the last 200 bars. Many traders read that as an upward lean. It describes the past and does not forecast the next bar. ### Is the 200 EMA better than the 200 SMA? It is different. The EMA weights recent bars more and reacts sooner. The simple average weights all 200 bars equally and is smoother. Neither is better in every case, and you would test the one your rule uses. ### Does price always bounce off the 200 EMA? No. Price can touch it, cross it or ignore it. Whether it reacts is something you measure over many instances. ### How many bars does the 200 EMA need before it is reliable? It needs history before its values settle, about as many bars as its period. Before that, its early values lean on the starting value. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is EMA 12 and 26 (MACD)? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-ema-12-and-26-macd **MACD is the 12-period EMA minus the 26-period EMA of the close, drawn with a 9-period EMA of that difference as a signal line.** ## The short answer MACD stands for moving average convergence divergence. Its main line is the 12-period EMA of the close minus the 26-period EMA of the close. When the faster average is above the slower, the line is above zero. When it is below, the line is below zero. Most charts then add a signal line, which is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line, and a histogram that shows the gap between the two. So the 12 and 26 are the inputs, and the 9 smooths the result. - **MACD line**: 12-period EMA of the close minus 26-period EMA of the close. - **Signal line**: A 9-period EMA of the MACD line. - **Histogram**: The MACD line minus the signal line, drawn as bars around zero. - **Zero line**: The level where the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA are equal. ## How it is built Take the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA of the close. Each is an ordinary EMA: EMA today = close × k + EMA yesterday × (1 − k), with k = 2 ÷ (period + 1). Subtract the 26 from the 12 on every bar. The result is the MACD line. The line tells you the distance between a faster and a slower average. When price rises fast, the 12 pulls away from the 26 and the line rises. When price flattens, the two come back together and the line falls toward zero. That coming together is the convergence in the name. ## How people use it Three readings are common. The MACD line crossing the signal line is read as a change in momentum. The MACD line crossing zero is the same as the 12 crossing the 26. And the histogram shrinking is read as momentum fading, even before a cross. Some traders also compare the MACD line against price and look for divergence, where price makes a new extreme and the line does not. These are descriptions of how the averages relate to each other. They are not forecasts. > MACD is built entirely from past closes. It reshapes what price already did and adds no new information. ## What it cannot tell you Because it is made of averages of averages, MACD is late. A cross of the signal line arrives after the move that caused it. In a sideways market it crosses over and over, and the signals contradict each other. It also gives no target and no stop, and it does not measure risk. The default settings of 12, 26 and 9 are conventions. Other settings give different crosses, and no setting is certain to do anything. ## The futures angle The three periods are counted in bars, so the chart timeframe decides the clock time they cover. The same 12, 26 and 9 on a 1-minute chart and on a daily chart are very different tools. A rule built on MACD signals on a bar close, so it can first be acted on at the next bar. In our method, a signal that appears when a bar closes is acted on at the next bar’s open. Costs apply to every trade it takes. You can write a MACD rule in plain words and run it on past data. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-12-26-9-signal-cross) - [MACD zero-line cross](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-zero-line-cross) - [EMA 12 / 26 cross](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-12-26-cross) ## Questions and answers ### What do the numbers 12, 26 and 9 mean in MACD? The 12 and 26 are the periods of the two EMAs of the close. The 9 is the period of the EMA of the MACD line that makes the signal line. They are standard settings, not fixed laws. ### How is MACD calculated? MACD line = 12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA. Signal line = 9-period EMA of the MACD line. Histogram = MACD line minus signal line. ### What does it mean when the MACD line crosses above zero? The 12 EMA has moved above the 26 EMA. It records that recent closes are higher relative to the longer average, and it does not forecast what comes next. ### Is MACD a leading or lagging indicator? It lags. It is calculated from past closes, so it can only show what price has already done. ### Can I change the MACD settings? Yes. Any periods can be used. The result changes with them, so a rule should say which settings it uses, and a test should run those exact ones. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is a moving average? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-a-moving-average **A moving average is the average of the last N prices, recalculated on every new bar, so it makes a smooth line that follows price with a delay.** ## The short answer A moving average is the average of the last N prices, usually closing prices, recalculated on every new bar. Plot the results and you get a smooth line that follows price with a delay. It moves because the window moves. When a new bar arrives, the oldest bar drops out of the window and the newest comes in. The number N is the period. A larger N gives a smoother line and a longer delay. - **Moving average**: The average of the last N prices, recalculated on each new bar. - **Simple moving average (SMA)**: The plain average. Add the last N closes and divide by N. Every bar in the window counts equally. - **Exponential moving average (EMA)**: An average that gives the newest bars more weight and lets old bars fade out gradually. - **Period**: N, the number of bars the average looks back over. ## Simple against exponential The simple average adds the last N closes and divides by N. A bar that leaves the window stops counting at once, which can make the line step when a big bar drops out. The exponential average uses the formula EMA today = close × k + EMA yesterday × (1 − k), where k = 2 ÷ (N + 1). Recent closes count for more and old closes fade out gradually. The line reacts sooner than the simple average of the same period. ## What a moving average is for It does two jobs. It smooths price, so a rough series of bars becomes a line you can read. And it gives you a rule you can state without judgement: price is above the line or below it, a fast line is above a slow line or below it. That second job is why moving averages show up in rules. A rule such as “enter when the fast average crosses above the slow average” can be written down exactly. It leaves no room for a second reading, which makes it testable. > A moving average replaces a judgement with a definition. That is why it can be tested, and testing is the only way to find out what it does. ## What a moving average cannot tell you It describes the past. Every value is built from bars that have already closed, so the line is always behind price. The longer the period, the further behind. It also cannot tell you where to get out, how much to risk or whether the next move continues. And in a sideways market it gives frequent crossings that carry little information. A line on a chart looks like structure. It is arithmetic on old prices. ## The futures angle The period counts bars, so the timeframe sets the clock time. A 50-period average on a 1-minute chart covers 50 minutes. On a daily chart it covers 50 sessions. Futures contracts expire and trading moves to the next month, usually at a different price. An average across that change mixes two contracts, so a futures test needs a clear rule for rolls. In ours, the front month is chosen by volume, prices are not back-adjusted and no trade is held through a roll. A moving-average cross is also one of the presets in our builder. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Moving averages: every strategy in the family on NQ and ES](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/families/moving-averages) ## Questions and answers ### What is a moving average in simple terms? It is the average of the last N prices, updated on every new bar. Drawn on a chart, it is a smooth line that follows price. ### What is the difference between an SMA and an EMA? The SMA weights every bar in the window equally. The EMA weights recent bars more, so it reacts sooner. Both lag price. ### What period should a moving average use? There is no single right period. A short one follows price closely and gives more crossings. A long one is smoother and later. Pick the period your rule states, then test that exact one. ### Is a moving average a leading or lagging indicator? It lags. It is calculated from closed bars, so it can only describe what price has done. ### Can a moving average be backtested on futures? Yes. Write the rule so it has one reading, add commission and slippage, handle contract rolls, and run it on past data. A backtest shows what the rule would have done, not what it will do. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to read candlesticks (for beginners) Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-read-candlesticks-for-beginners **A candlestick shows one period’s open, high, low and close: the body runs from open to close and the thin wicks reach out to the high and the low.** ## One candle, four prices A candlestick is a picture of what price did during one period. The period can be one minute, one hour or one day. Every candle records the same four prices, and once you can find them, you can read any chart. The thick part is the body. It runs from the open to the close. The thin lines above and below are the wicks, sometimes called shadows or tails. They reach out to the high and the low of the period. - **Open**: The first price traded in the period. - **High**: The highest price traded in the period. - **Low**: The lowest price traded in the period. - **Close**: The last price traded in the period. - **Body**: The thick part of the candle, from the open to the close. - **Wick**: A thin line above or below the body, out to the high or the low. ## Reading the body The body tells you where the period ended compared with where it started. If the close is above the open, price rose over the period. If the close is below the open, price fell. A long body means price travelled a long way from open to close. A short body means it finished near where it began. The body does not tell you the path. A long body could be a steady climb or a drop followed by a bigger rise. The candle keeps four prices and drops the order they happened in. ## Reading the wicks A wick shows a price that was reached and then left. A long upper wick means price pushed up during the period and came back before the close. A long lower wick means it pushed down and came back. Traders often read long wicks as a sign that a price was turned away. That is a way of reading the picture, not a rule. It is worth knowing what a wick is before you decide how much weight to give it. > Read a candle as a record of what price did in one period, not as a promise of what comes next. ## Colour is a convention Most platforms colour candles by direction: one colour when the close is above the open and another when it is below. Green and red are common. White and black, or hollow and filled, are also used. The choice is the platform’s, and it can be changed. Some charts even colour a candle by whether it closed above the previous candle’s close, not above its own open. Check what your chart uses before you read the colours. ## The timeframe changes the picture The same stretch of market looks different on different timeframes. A daily candle is a summary of every 1-minute candle inside it. It keeps four prices. The 1-minute candles keep the order the market moved in. That is why a pattern on a daily chart can look like a different story on a 5-minute chart. Neither one is the true view. They answer different questions. ## What a candle cannot tell you A single candle does not tell you why price moved, who was buying, or what the next candle will be. Patterns made of several candles have names, and people use them, but a name is not a forecast. If you want to know whether a candle pattern has led to anything, the honest way is to write the pattern as an exact rule and count what happened after it on past data. ## The futures angle On futures charts, a bar is labelled by the time it opens, and all of our clock times are America/New_York. Our data is 1-minute bars, and the Trade Lab can show them as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour or daily candles, built from the 1-minute bars. A new contract month can open at a different price from the old one. In the Trade Lab the first bar of a new contract is marked on a roll, so a gap that comes from the roll is not mistaken for a move. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Engulfing candle](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/engulfing-candle) - [Hammer / shooting star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hammer-shooting-star) - [Doji at a 20-bar extreme](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/doji-at-a-20-bar-extreme) - [Morning star / evening star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/morning-star-evening-star) - [Three white soldiers / three black crows](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-white-soldiers-three-black-crows) ## Questions and answers ### What do the four parts of a candlestick mean? The body runs from the open to the close. The wicks reach out to the high and the low of the period. ### What does a long wick mean on a candle? Price reached that level during the period and was back away from it by the close. Traders read it as a price that was turned away, but it is a reading of the picture, not a rule. ### What does the colour of a candle mean? Usually the direction of the period: one colour when the close is above the open and another when it is below. The colours are the platform’s choice, so check your chart’s settings. ### Can I trade from candlesticks alone? Candles show what price did. They do not show why or what comes next. If you plan to use a candle pattern, write it as an exact rule and test it on past data first. ### What timeframe should a beginner use to read candles? There is no single answer. A longer timeframe shows less detail and a shorter one shows more. Pick the one that matches how long you plan to hold, and look at the others to see what changes. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is the 3 candlestick rule? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-the-3-candlestick-rule **There is no single 3 candlestick rule: the phrase names several different ideas, from three-bar patterns to waiting three candles before entering.** ## Several rules share one name Search for the 3 candlestick rule and you will find different answers. The phrase has no standard definition. Education sites, courses and indicator authors use it for different ideas, so the first step is to find out which one the person means. These are the usages that come up most often. - A three-bar pattern. A named formation of three candles, such as three white soldiers, three black crows, the morning star or the evening star. - A confirmation rule. Spot a setup at a level, wait for the next candle to close in the direction you want, then act on the third candle, with a stop beyond the setup candle’s wick. - Three bars in a row. Three consecutive bars that each make a new high, or each make a new low, taken as a sign of direction. - **Three white soldiers**: Three rising candles in a row, each closing higher than the one before. - **Three black crows**: Three falling candles in a row, each closing lower than the one before. - **Morning star**: A falling candle, a small candle, then a rising candle. Read as a possible turn up. - **Evening star**: A rising candle, a small candle, then a falling candle. Read as a possible turn down. ## The three-bar patterns The named patterns are simple to describe. Three white soldiers and three black crows are runs of three candles in one direction. The morning star and evening star put a small candle between two larger ones that point opposite ways. People read these as signs that direction is changing or continuing. That is how they are used. It is not a forecast, and no pattern on a chart has to be followed by anything. ## The wait-for-confirmation version This version is about patience. You do not act on the first candle that looks like a setup. You wait for the next candle to close, check that it moved the way you expected, and only then enter. The idea is to avoid acting on a candle that is still forming. It also means entering later, at a price that has already moved. Whether the wait helps or costs you is a question about your rules and your market, and it can be tested. > Before you use a rule called the 3 candlestick rule, find out which one is meant, and write it down in full. ## Three in a row The third version counts bars. Three bars in a row that each make a higher high suggest an upward move. Three that each make a lower low suggest a downward one. Written this way it becomes a rule a computer can follow. You still have to say which bar counts as the first, whether equal highs count, and what you do on the third bar. Those choices change the result. ## Why a rule needs exact wording A rule with a loose name cannot be tested. A test needs every part fixed: what counts as a candle in the pattern, when the signal fires, where the entry is, where the stop and target are. In our method a signal that appears when a bar closes can first be acted on at the next bar’s open. Targets fill on touch, at the exact price. Those details are part of the rule, and a different choice is a different rule. ## The futures angle On futures, the same three candles look different on a 1-minute chart and a 15-minute chart, and a roll between contract months can put a gap inside a pattern that nobody could have traded. Our data is 1-minute bars, labelled by their open time, in America/New_York time. If one of these rules has been catching your eye, write it as an exact sentence and look at it bar by bar. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Engulfing candle](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/engulfing-candle) - [Hammer / shooting star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hammer-shooting-star) - [Doji at a 20-bar extreme](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/doji-at-a-20-bar-extreme) - [Morning star / evening star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/morning-star-evening-star) - [Three white soldiers / three black crows](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-white-soldiers-three-black-crows) ## Questions and answers ### What is the 3 candle rule in trading? There is no standard 3 candle rule. The phrase is used for three-bar patterns, for a rule that waits three candles before entering, and for three bars in a row making new highs or lows. ### What are three white soldiers and three black crows? Three white soldiers are three rising candles in a row, each closing higher than the one before. Three black crows are the same in reverse, three falling candles in a row. ### Is the 3 candlestick rule reliable? It depends on which rule is meant, and nobody can answer for a rule with no fixed wording. To find out, write the rule as exact steps and count what happened after it on past data. ### How do I test a candlestick rule? Write it so there is only one reading, run it on past data with costs, hold some months back, and read the trades. Our how-to page walks through the steps. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How to tell if a candle is bullish or bearish Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-tell-if-a-candle-is-bullish-or-bearish **A candle is bullish when it closes above its open and bearish when it closes below its open; if the two are equal it is neutral, often called a doji.** ## The one-line test Compare the close with the open. If the close is above the open, the candle is bullish: price rose over the period. If the close is below the open, the candle is bearish: price fell. The wicks do not decide it. Only the body does, and the body runs from the open to the close. - **Bullish candle**: A candle whose close is above its open. - **Bearish candle**: A candle whose close is below its open. - **Doji**: A candle whose open and close are equal or almost equal, so the body is a thin line. - **Gap**: A candle that opens away from the previous candle’s close instead of starting where it ended. ## How to see it on a chart Most charts colour the body for you. One colour means the close was above the open and the other means it was below. Green and red are common. Some charts use hollow and filled bodies, or white and black. Colours are a setting. If you are unsure, hover over a candle and read its open and close. The numbers settle it. ## When the colour is not about the open Some charting platforms colour a candle by comparing its close with the previous candle’s close instead. A candle can then be coloured as rising even though it closed below its own open, if it opened with a gap down and closed above the previous close. That is a choice about how to draw the chart, not a different definition of bullish. If you use the open-to-close test, check your platform’s colour setting so the picture and the definition agree. > Bullish and bearish describe what one candle did. They are not a prediction of the next one. ## Size and wicks add detail Two bullish candles can look very different. One has a long body and almost no wicks. Price opened low, rose steadily and closed near the high. Another has a short body and a long upper wick. Price rose, was pushed back, and closed only a little above its open. Both are bullish by the one-line test. Traders read the second as less decisive than the first. That is an interpretation, and it is one thing among many to look at. ## Why a single candle is not a signal A bullish candle only says that this period closed higher than it opened. Many bullish candles appear inside falling markets and many bearish ones inside rising markets. People usually look at several candles, at the level where they appear, and at the timeframe. If you want to know what has followed a particular candle, write the condition as an exact rule and test it on past data. The candle alone cannot answer it. ## The futures angle On a futures chart, a bar is labelled by the time it opens, and the first bar of a session opens at 18:00 ET. A bar that opens at a new session or right after a contract roll can start away from the previous close. That gap can make the colour on a chart different from the open-to-close test. Our data is 1-minute bars. Longer candles are built from them, so a daily candle’s open is the first 1-minute bar’s open and its close is the last bar’s close. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Engulfing candle](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/engulfing-candle) - [Hammer / shooting star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hammer-shooting-star) - [Doji at a 20-bar extreme](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/doji-at-a-20-bar-extreme) - [Morning star / evening star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/morning-star-evening-star) - [Three white soldiers / three black crows](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-white-soldiers-three-black-crows) ## Questions and answers ### How do you know if a candle is bullish or bearish? Compare the close with the open. Close above open is bullish. Close below open is bearish. ### What does a green or red candle mean? On most charts it shows direction: one colour when the close is above the open, the other when it is below. The colours are a platform setting, so check yours. ### What is a doji candle? A candle whose open and close are the same or very close, so it has almost no body. It is neither clearly bullish nor bearish. ### Does a bullish candle mean price will go up next? No. It only describes the period it covers. The next candle can go either way. ### Do the wicks matter when deciding bullish or bearish? Not for the definition. The body decides it. Wicks add detail about how far price travelled and came back. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Types of candlesticks and their meaning Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/types-of-candlesticks-and-their-meaning **Candlestick types are named by the shape of the body and wicks, such as the doji, hammer, shooting star, marubozu and spinning top, each read as a hint.** ## Shape gives the name Candlesticks get their names from the proportions of the body and the wicks. The four prices are the same in every case: open, high, low and close. What changes is how they sit relative to each other. The meanings below are how traders usually read each shape. They are readings, not rules, and no shape has to be followed by any particular move. - **Doji**: Open and close are equal or almost equal. The body is a thin line, with wicks above and below. - **Marubozu**: A candle with a long body and little or no wick. The open and close sit at or near the low and high. - **Spinning top**: A small body with wicks of similar length above and below. - **Hammer**: A small body near the top with a long lower wick and little upper wick. - **Shooting star**: A small body near the bottom with a long upper wick and little lower wick. ## Doji and spinning top: indecision A doji opens and closes at about the same price. The period moved, but ended where it began. A spinning top has a small body and wicks on both sides, so price moved up and down but finished close to the open. Traders often read both as a pause or indecision. A pause can be followed by a move in either direction, so the shape alone says little. Where it appears matters more than that it appears. > A candle’s name describes its shape. What it means depends on where it sits and what you have tested. ## Marubozu: one-sided periods A marubozu has a long body and almost no wicks. A bullish one opens near its low and closes near its high. A bearish one does the reverse. Price moved one way for the whole period. Traders read it as a period with one side in control. It is a description of the period. It does not say how long that will last. ## Hammer and shooting star: long wicks A hammer has a small body near the top and a long lower wick. Price fell during the period and came back to close near the open. A shooting star is the mirror: a small body near the bottom and a long upper wick. These are often read as signs that a move was rejected. The same shape is sometimes called a hanging man or an inverted hammer, depending on where it appears. The names change, and the shape is the same. ## Patterns made of more than one candle Some patterns need two or three candles. An engulfing pattern is a candle whose body covers the previous candle’s body. A harami is the reverse, a small candle inside the previous body. The morning star and evening star use three. These patterns have more rules to pin down than a single shape. How much smaller counts as small? Does the wick count? A test needs those answers written down. ## The futures angle Candle shapes depend on the timeframe. A shape that is a marubozu on a 1-minute chart can sit inside a doji on the 1-hour chart that contains it. Our data is 1-minute bars, and longer candles are built from them. A roll between contract months can leave a gap in the series, and a gap can change a candle’s shape without any trading having happened. We run on raw, unadjusted prices and handle rolls as explicit events. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Engulfing candle](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/engulfing-candle) - [Hammer / shooting star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hammer-shooting-star) - [Doji at a 20-bar extreme](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/doji-at-a-20-bar-extreme) - [Morning star / evening star](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/morning-star-evening-star) - [Three white soldiers / three black crows](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-white-soldiers-three-black-crows) ## Questions and answers ### What are the main types of candlesticks? The common single-candle shapes are the doji, spinning top, marubozu, hammer and shooting star. Multi-candle patterns include engulfing, harami, the morning star and the evening star. ### What does a doji candlestick mean? It means the open and close were about the same. Traders read it as indecision, but it can be followed by a move in either direction. ### What is the difference between a hammer and a shooting star? A hammer has a small body near the top and a long lower wick. A shooting star has a small body near the bottom and a long upper wick. One is the mirror of the other. ### Do candlestick patterns predict price? A pattern describes what price did. Traders use patterns as hints, but none has to be followed by any move. To see what followed a pattern in the past, write it as an exact rule and test it. ### What is a marubozu? A candle with a long body and almost no wicks, so the open and close sit at or near the low and the high. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is support and resistance? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-support-and-resistance **Support is a price level where a fall has paused or turned before, and resistance is a level where a rise has paused or turned before.** ## The basic idea Support and resistance are price levels that traders mark on a chart. Support sits below the current price. It is a level where price has stopped falling, or turned up, in the past. Resistance sits above. It is a level where price has stopped rising, or turned down. The idea is that price tends to react near places where it has reacted before. People use that as a map. It is a way of organising a chart. It is not a guarantee that a level will hold. - **Support**: A level below price where earlier falls paused or reversed. - **Resistance**: A level above price where earlier rises paused or reversed. - **Zone**: A band of prices around a level, used because price rarely turns at one exact tick. - **Break**: Price moving through a level instead of turning at it. ## Where traders find levels Common places to mark a level are earlier swing highs and lows, the previous day’s high and low, the open of a session, and round numbers. Moving averages are sometimes used as moving levels. In our assumptions a short-term high is a high with a lower high on the candle immediately before it and the one immediately after it. A low is the mirror. Levels built from points like these are exact enough to test. ## A level is a zone, not a line Price often turns a little above or below the level you drew. A wick may poke through and come back. A close may land just beyond. So many traders draw a zone, a band of prices, rather than one line. How wide the zone is, and whether a wick or only a close counts as a break, are choices. Different choices give different trades. > A level is a zone. Decide how wide it is, and what counts as a break, before you test it. ## When support becomes resistance When price breaks below a support level and later comes back up to it, traders often watch the same level again, now as resistance. The reverse also happens, with broken resistance later acting as support. This is a common way of reading charts. It is also a place where hindsight is easy. It is simple to see afterwards which level mattered. It is harder to know it at the time. ## What support and resistance cannot tell you A level says where price reacted before. It does not say it will react again, or by how much, or how often. Levels fail often enough that traders usually plan for it with a stop. Drawing levels after the fact is a classic way to fool yourself. Every chart has levels that look obvious once you know what happened. A rule written in advance, with exact wording, does not have that problem. ## The futures angle Futures prices are specific numbers on a specific contract month. We run on raw prices and do not back-adjust them, so a level in our data is a price that actually traded. A roll can put a gap between old and new contracts, and a level from the old one may not line up with the new one. One tick on NQ is 0.25 points, which is $5.00, and a point is $20, so the width of a zone has a dollar cost you can read off. Previous day high and low is one of the starting presets in our builder. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Floor pivot R1 / S1 breakout](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/floor-pivot-r1-s1-breakout) - [Camarilla H3 / L3 fade](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/camarilla-h3-l3-fade) - [Previous day high breakout](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/previous-day-high-breakout) ## Questions and answers ### What is support and resistance in simple terms? Support is a price level where a fall has paused or turned before. Resistance is a level where a rise has paused or turned before. Traders mark them as places price may react again. ### How do you find support and resistance levels? Common methods are earlier swing highs and lows, the previous day’s high and low, session opens and round numbers. Whatever method you use, write down exactly how a level is defined. ### Does support and resistance always hold? No. Levels are places price reacted before. They can break, and traders plan for that with a stop. ### What happens when support breaks? Price moves below it. Traders often watch the same level again afterwards, now as possible resistance, but price may do either. ### Is support and resistance a line or a zone? Most traders treat it as a zone, because price rarely turns at one exact tick. How wide the zone is, and what counts as a break, are choices to fix before testing. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is a trend in trading? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-a-trend-in-trading **A trend is a sustained direction in price: an uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows, a downtrend makes lower highs and lower lows.** ## The usual definition A trend is a stretch of the market where price keeps moving mostly one way. In an uptrend, each swing high is higher than the last and each swing low is higher than the last. In a downtrend, both are lower each time. When price does neither, and bounces between a high and a low without making progress, traders call it a range or sideways market. - **Uptrend**: A run of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. - **Downtrend**: A run of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. - **Range**: A stretch where price moves between a high and a low without making new ones in a steady direction. - **Swing high, swing low**: A high or low that stands out from the candles around it. ## What counts as a swing The definition depends on swings, and swings need a rule. In our assumptions a short-term high is a high with a lower high on the candle immediately before it and the one immediately after it. A short-term low is the mirror. Both are 3-candle fractals. Pick a looser or tighter rule and you get different swings, and so different trends. That is one reason two traders can look at one chart and disagree about whether it is trending. ## Trend depends on the timeframe A chart can be rising on the daily timeframe and falling on the 5-minute one at the same moment. Both statements are true. They describe different stretches of time. So the first question about any trend is on what timeframe. A trade held for minutes cares about a different trend from a trade held for days. > A trend is a description of the past on one timeframe. It is not a promise that price will keep going. ## Other ways people measure trend Not everyone counts swings. Some use a moving average and call price above it an uptrend and price below it a downtrend. Some draw a line along the lows. Some use the direction of the daily close compared with a few days ago. These methods agree some of the time and disagree at turning points. None of them is the true definition. Each is a rule, and the rule has to be chosen. ## What a trend cannot tell you Saying a market is in an uptrend describes what has happened. It does not say how long the trend will continue, or when it will end. Trends end, and the end is clear only afterwards. If you use a trend as a filter, such as only taking long trades in an uptrend, write the trend rule exactly. Then test it on past data with costs. A trend filter that looks sensible on a chart can remove a lot of trades or very few, and you cannot tell which until you count. ## The futures angle Futures trade nearly around the clock, so decide what a day is. Our sessions open at 18:00 ET, and all of our clock times are America/New_York. A trend rule that crosses a session open or a contract roll has to say what it does there. On our runs no trade is held through a contract change. A roll can leave a gap between contract months that is not a move anyone could trade, and a back-adjusted series can hide it. We run on raw prices. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Trend and breakouts: every strategy in the family on NQ and ES](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/families/trend-and-breakouts) ## Questions and answers ### What is a trend in trading? A sustained direction in price. An uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend makes lower highs and lower lows. ### How do you identify a trend? Common methods are counting swing highs and lows, comparing price with a moving average, or drawing a line along the lows or highs. Each is a rule, and different rules can disagree. ### What is the difference between a trend and a range? In a trend, price makes progress in one direction. In a range, price moves between a high and a low without making new ones in a steady direction. ### Does a trend continue until it ends? A trend describes the past. It can continue, pause or reverse, and it is usually clear that it has ended only afterwards. ### Can a market be in an uptrend and a downtrend at once? On different timeframes, yes. A market can be rising on the daily chart and falling on the 5-minute chart, because they cover different stretches of time. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is day trading futures? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-day-trading-futures **Day trading futures means opening and closing futures positions inside one trading day, so nothing is held overnight.** ## The short answer Day trading futures means entering and exiting futures contracts within the same trading day. You do not carry a position overnight. Every trade has an entry, a stop, a target, and a time by which it is closed if neither of the other two is hit. A futures contract is an agreement on the price of an index or a commodity at a set date. The markets on our site are CME Group futures only: the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ), their micro versions (MES and MNQ), and gold (GC, on COMEX). - **Day trade**: A trade that is opened and closed inside one trading day. - **Point**: A whole price unit. Its dollar value depends on the contract: $20 on NQ, $2 on MNQ, $50 on ES, $5 on MES and $100 on GC. - **Tick**: The smallest price move of a contract. On NQ, MNQ, ES and MES it is 0.25 points. On GC it is 0.10 points. - **Time stop**: An exit at a fixed time. A time stop at 17:00 exits at the close of the 16:59 bar. > A day trade is defined by when it ends. If the rules let a position stay open past the close, they are not day-trading rules. ## How the trading day is built Index futures do not stop at the stock market close. In our runs a full session starts at 18:00 ET and ends at 17:00 ET the next day, which is 23 hours. Regular trading hours run from 09:30 to 16:00 ET, which is 6.5 hours. A day trader picks a window inside that and flattens before it ends. Every clock time in our runs is America/New_York, including the daylight-saving changes. The page on RTH and ETH sets out the hours in detail. ## What a day-trading rule has to say A rule is only testable when each of these has one reading: - The market and the bar size. - The window in which a setup may start, and how long it keeps waiting for its entry. - The entry trigger, and where the entry fills. - Where the stop goes and where the target goes. - The time at which any open position is closed. A time stop at 17:00 exits at the close of the 16:59 bar, the last bar that finishes before the stated time. - The costs: commission per side and slippage in ticks per fill. ## Contract size and tick value These are the contract specifications our runs use. - ES: $50 per point. Tick 0.25 = $12.50. - MES: $5 per point. Tick 0.25 = $1.25. - NQ: $20 per point. Tick 0.25 = $5.00. - MNQ: $2 per point. Tick 0.25 = $0.50. - GC: $100 per point. Tick 0.10 = $10. ## Costs weigh more when you trade often Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. A rule that trades several times a day pays them each time. Costs are applied after the run, so they do not move fills, stops or targets. ## Risk Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. Nothing on this site is investment advice. Simulated results do not represent actual trading, and a test cannot show what happens next. ## The futures angle A day-trading rule can be tested on real 1-minute data before any money is at risk. A backtest shows what the rules did on the history. A replay lets you step through the same history one bar at a time and make each decision yourself. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Opening range breakout, 15 minutes](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-range-breakout-15-minutes) - [Opening and session: every strategy in the family on NQ and ES](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/families/opening-and-session) ## Questions and answers ### Can you day trade futures with a small account? Micro contracts are a tenth of the dollar size per point of the e-mini contracts: MNQ is $2 a point where NQ is $20, and MES is $5 where ES is $50. Margin and account minimums are set by brokers and exchanges, so check yours. ### Do futures trade 24 hours a day? Nearly. In our runs a full session starts at 18:00 ET and ends at 17:00 ET the next day, which is 23 hours. The week opens at 18:00 ET on Sunday. ### What is the difference between day trading and swing trading futures? A day trade closes inside the day. A swing trade is held past it. In our runs, whatever the style, no trade is held through a contract roll. ### How much does it cost to day trade futures? Commission per contract per side, plus slippage. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ### How can I practise day trading futures without risking money? Use a replay. Our Trade Lab steps through NQ, ES and GC history one 1-minute bar at a time with paper orders. It is free with an account and a verified email, and no real order is ever placed. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # ES vs NQ: which to trade Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/es-vs-nq-which-to-trade **ES tracks the S&P 500 at $50 a point and NQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 at $20 a point; your own test shows which one suits a given set of rules.** ## The short answer ES and NQ are both CME E-mini index futures. ES follows the S&P 500. NQ follows the Nasdaq-100. They differ in dollars per point, in tick value and in the index behind them. No rule of thumb settles which one to trade. That depends on the rules, the stop size and the costs, and a test on your own rules is how to find out. This page sets out the differences that matter for that test. - **ES**: E-mini S&P 500 futures. $50 per point. - **NQ**: E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. $20 per point. - **MES, MNQ**: The micro versions of ES and NQ. They roll with their parent contract. - **Tick**: The smallest price move. It is 0.25 points on all four contracts. ## The numbers side by side These are the contract specifications our runs use. > A point on NQ and a point on ES are not the same thing. Compare the two in R or in dollars at risk, never in raw points. ## Why points do not compare Each index has its own level, so one point is a different share of the price on each. And each contract pays a different amount per point. The same 10-point stop is $200 on NQ and $500 on ES. That is arithmetic, not a result from any run. It means two strategies with the same stop in points are not taking the same risk in dollars. To compare ES and NQ fairly, size each trade by the dollars at risk, or measure the result in R, where 1R is the distance from entry to the initial stop. ## Costs Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ## Data and history On our data, ES and NQ both run from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. MES and MNQ run from their launch in May 2019 through the same date. ES and NQ roll independently, each on the front month by volume. On a few sessions a year (11 of 2,648 so far) they are on different contract months. That matters only to a run that trades both at once. An order can include one contract from each index family, and SMT divergence, an entry option, compares ES and NQ. ## What to test Run the same written rules on both markets and read the trades side by side: - Use the same commission, the same slippage and the same session on both. - Compare the trade counts first. A rule can trade at different rates on each. - Compare the stop sizes in dollars as well as in points. - Compare drawdown and the longest losing streak in R. - Look at the held-back months on each, not only the months you built the rules on. ## The futures angle Both markets are available as 1-minute data in the Trade Lab, so you can step through the same day on each and see how the same setup looks. Replay it on real NQ and ES data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## Questions and answers ### Is NQ more volatile than ES? It depends on the period and the measure. Rather than rely on a general claim, run the same rules on both and compare the trades, the stop sizes and the drawdown in R. ### Which has the higher tick value, ES or NQ? ES. One tick is $12.50 on ES and $5.00 on NQ. The tick size is 0.25 points on both. ### What is the difference between ES and MES? MES is the micro version of ES. One point is $5 on MES and $50 on ES, and one tick is $1.25 on MES and $12.50 on ES. MES rolls with ES. ### Can I backtest the same strategy on ES and NQ? Yes. Write the rules once and run them on each market with the same costs. Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ### Do ES and NQ roll on the same dates? Each rolls on its own rule, the front month by volume, switching at the 18:00 ET session open. On a few sessions a year they are on different contract months. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # MNQ tick value and point value Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/mnq-tick-value-and-point-value **One MNQ point is worth $2 and one tick is 0.25 points, which is $0.50, so there are four ticks in a point.** ## The short answer MNQ is the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 future. One point is worth $2. The tick, the smallest price move, is 0.25 points, which is $0.50. Four ticks make a point, and four times $0.50 is $2. MNQ follows the same index as NQ at a tenth of the dollars per point. NQ is $20 a point. - **MNQ**: Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. $2 per point. - **Point**: A whole price unit. On MNQ it is worth $2. - **Tick**: The smallest price move. On MNQ it is 0.25 points, worth $0.50. - **Round trip**: One entry and one exit. Commission is charged on each, so a round trip is two sides. > On MNQ one point is $2 and one tick is $0.50. Convert every stop and target to dollars before you read a result. ## MNQ against the other index contracts These are the contract specifications our runs use. ## Reading a move in ticks, points and dollars Here is the arithmetic for one MNQ contract. The sizes are examples of the conversion, not results from any run. A tick is the smallest step the price can make. On MNQ that is 0.25 points, so a price of 21,000.00 can next trade at 21,000.25, and a move of 10 points is 40 ticks. Divide points by 0.25 to get ticks, then multiply points by $2 to get dollars. - One tick, 0.25 points, is $0.50. - One point, four ticks, is $2.00. - Ten points, forty ticks, is $20.00. ## Stops and targets in dollars The chart shows price in points. The order fills in ticks. Dollars come from the contract. A stop 10 points from the entry risks $20 on one MNQ contract, before costs. Ten MNQ contracts with the same stop risk $200. That is the same dollars as one NQ contract with a 10-point stop, because ten times $2 is $20 a point. This is arithmetic on the contract values, not a result from any run. It is also why MNQ is the smaller step: it lets a test, or an account, change size in smaller amounts. ## Costs on MNQ Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. ## MNQ and NQ in the same backtest MNQ shares NQ’s roll calendar. Both take the front month by volume and switch at the 18:00 ET session open, on raw prices that are not back-adjusted. The history differs. On our data NQ runs from June 2, 2016 through August 27, 2026. MNQ runs from its launch in May 2019 through the same date. A run cannot ask for more history than the data covers for the market you picked. ## The futures angle In the Trade Lab replay, paper orders use NQ or MNQ on an index market, and the account strip shows balance, equity and open profit and loss as you step through the bars. That makes tick and point values easy to see on a real chart. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## Questions and answers ### What is the tick value of MNQ? One tick is 0.25 points, which is $0.50. ### What is one point worth on MNQ? One point is worth $2. ### How many ticks are in a point on MNQ? Four. The tick size is 0.25 points, so four ticks make one point. ### Is MNQ the same as NQ? It follows the same index and shares NQ’s roll calendar, but a point is worth $2 on MNQ and $20 on NQ. ### What commission do you use for MNQ in a backtest? Commissions and fees vary by broker; a backtest should use your own. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is a futures contract rollover? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-a-futures-contract-rollover **A rollover is the switch from an expiring futures contract to the next one; we use the front month by volume and switch at the 18:00 ET session open.** ## The short answer A futures contract expires. When it does, trading moves to the next contract month. That move is the rollover, or roll. The index futures we list roll quarterly. The new contract usually trades at a different price from the old one. That difference is not a market move. Nobody could have traded it. - **Roll**: The switch from an expiring contract to the next contract month. - **Front month**: The contract month treated as the market for a session. Ours is the one with the highest volume. - **Back-adjusted**: A price series in which old prices are shifted so the roll gaps disappear. We use it for display only. - **Raw price**: The price as it traded on its own contract. Our simulation runs on raw prices. ## Why the price jumps Continuous data chains the contract months together but leaves the jumps in the series. Run a backtest straight over that and a roll can trigger an entry, or take out a stop, on a price change that never happened. The fix is not to smooth the jump away in the simulation. A back-adjusted line looks continuous on a chart, but it is made of prices that never traded. > A roll is not a price move. A backtest has to treat it as an event in the data, not as a tick on a chart. ## How we handle it These are the rules in our Assumptions, in plain words: - The front month is chosen by volume, and the switch happens at the 18:00 ET session open. - Prices are not back-adjusted. The simulation runs on raw prices. - Roll dates are stored as explicit events in the data. - No trade is ever held through a contract change. A position still open at the close of the last session before a roll is exited at that session’s final bar close, and nothing is reopened on the new contract. - Gold uses the same method: the front contract is the one with the highest volume in the prior session, rolling forward only. ## Micros, and ES and NQ together The micros share their parent’s roll calendar. MES rolls with ES, and MNQ rolls with NQ. That makes two calendars for four symbols. ES and NQ roll independently of each other. On a few sessions a year, 11 of 2,648 so far, they are on different contract months. That matters only to a run that trades both at once. ## What a roll does to an open trade Take a trade still open at the close of the last session before a roll. It does not carry across. It exits at that session’s final bar close. If the rules would have wanted a trade on the new contract, it starts again from the new contract’s own signals. This rule keeps a gap from ever being counted as a win or a loss that nobody could have had. ## The futures angle In the Trade Lab replay, prices are raw and not back-adjusted, the front-month contract is shown, and the first bar of a new contract is marked on a roll. A paper position is closed at a contract roll and at the end of the data. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## Questions and answers ### How often do futures contracts roll? The index futures we list, ES, MES, NQ and MNQ, roll quarterly. Each roll is stored in our data as an explicit event. ### What is the front month? The contract month treated as the market for a given session. Ours is the one with the highest volume, and we switch at the 18:00 ET session open. ### Should a backtest use back-adjusted data? Not for the simulation. Back-adjusted prices are not prices that traded. We run on raw prices and use a back-adjusted line only to draw charts. ### What happens to an open trade at a roll? In our runs it is exited at the final bar close of the last session before the roll, and nothing is reopened on the new contract. ### Do micro contracts roll when the e-mini does? Yes. MES rolls with ES and MNQ rolls with NQ, because they share the parent’s roll calendar. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is RTH vs ETH? Updated 2026-10-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-rth-vs-eth **RTH is regular trading hours, 09:30 to 16:00 ET in our runs; ETH is extended trading hours, which covers everything outside that window.** ## The short answer RTH stands for regular trading hours. For equity-index futures it is the stock-market day. In our runs RTH is 09:30 to 16:00 ET, which is 6.5 hours. ETH stands for extended trading hours: everything outside RTH. Index futures keep trading through the evening, overnight and early morning, so most of the clock is ETH. - **RTH**: Regular trading hours. 09:30 to 16:00 ET in our runs. - **ETH**: Extended trading hours: every hour outside RTH. - **Globex**: The name our builder uses for the overnight window, from the 18:00 ET reopen to the 09:30 ET RTH open. - **Full session**: From 18:00 ET to 17:00 ET the next day, which is 23 hours. ## The hours we use All times are America/New_York, including the daylight-saving changes. - RTH: 09:30 to 16:00 ET. The builder anchors an RTH session at the 09:30 ET open. - Full session: 18:00 ET to 17:00 ET the next day. The week opens at 18:00 ET on Sunday. - Globex overnight: 18:00 to 09:30 ET. It is the union of Asia, 18:00 to 03:00, and London, 03:00 to 09:30. The builder anchors it at the 18:00 ET reopen. - The stretch from 16:00 to 18:00 ET is in none of the named windows. A full or custom session covers it. > A rule written for one set of hours is a different test on another. State the hours in the rule. ## Why the hours change a backtest The same rule gives different trades in RTH and in the full session. An opening-range rule anchored at 09:30 ET looks at a different range from one anchored at 18:00 ET. A rule restricted to RTH skips every setup that forms overnight. Time stops follow the same logic. A time stop at 17:00 exits at the close of the 16:59 bar, the last bar that finishes before the stated time. So a rule meant to be flat by the RTH close needs a time before 16:00, not 17:00. ## Gold and RTH RTH, 09:30 to 16:00 ET, is an equity-index session. In our builder, gold (GC) has no RTH option. For gold you choose the full session or a custom window. ## Holidays and early closes On a holiday or an early close, the shortened session is what runs. If a setup’s own range window did not trade that day at all, the day is skipped rather than forced into a partial or invented range. ## The futures angle The Trade Lab replay lets you step to the next 09:30 ET or to the next session, so you can watch the move from the overnight session into RTH one 1-minute bar at a time. Replay it on real NQ data, free, in the Trade Lab. ## See it backtested on NQ and ES - [Opening range breakout, 15 minutes](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-range-breakout-15-minutes) - [Opening and session: every strategy in the family on NQ and ES](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/families/opening-and-session) ## Questions and answers ### What does RTH stand for in trading? Regular trading hours. In our runs, for equity-index futures, that is 09:30 to 16:00 ET. ### What does ETH stand for in futures trading? Extended trading hours: every hour outside regular trading hours. ### What are the RTH hours for NQ and ES? In our runs, 09:30 to 16:00 ET. The full session runs from 18:00 ET to 17:00 ET the next day. ### Do futures trade outside RTH? Yes. In our runs the full session starts at 18:00 ET and ends at 17:00 ET the next day, and the week opens at 18:00 ET on Sunday. ### Should a backtest include extended hours? It depends on what the rule is about. What matters is that the rule says which hours it uses, because the same rule on RTH and on the full session is two different tests. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I start a free futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-start-a-free-futures-replay **Open the Trade Lab, pick NQ, ES or GC and a start date, and press Start replay: a free account with a verified email is all it takes.** ## The short answer A futures replay shows real history one candle at a time, so you can practise a decision without seeing what comes next. The Trade Lab on this site does that for NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100), ES (E-mini S&P 500) and GC (COMEX gold), and it is free. You need an account and a verified email. After that, a replay starts in four steps. ## Start a replay in four steps 1. **Open the Lab and find Start a replay.** Sign in, verify your email and open the Trade Lab at /lab. The Start a replay card sits near the top, above your runs. (Screenshot: The Start a replay card of the Trade Lab: an index switch with NQ, ES and GC, a start date, a run name and a Start replay button.) 2. **Pick the market and the start date.** Choose NQ, ES or GC. The date field shows the range you can start in, and every replay opens with at least three months of history behind the start candle. (Screenshot: The index switch with NQ selected beside the start date 2026-01-02 and the allowed range printed under it.) 3. **Name it and press Start replay.** A name is optional and only helps you find the run later. Press Start replay; the run opens at the first session on or after your date. (Screenshot: The run name field and the Start replay button.) 4. **Read the screen.** The top line shows the session, the Eastern clock and the last price. The chart ends at the current candle, with no later bar loaded. The side panel has the Journal, Trade and Save tabs. (Screenshot: A new ES replay: the chart ends at the cursor, the top bar shows the controls, and the side panel shows the Journal tab.) ## Choosing a start date A date picks the first session on or after it. A date before the data begins is moved to the earliest allowed start, and the hint under the field prints the real range for each market. Raw, unadjusted prices are used, and the front-month contract is shown. There is no right date. A quiet week, a news day and a holiday session all teach different things, so start where the question is. A run is saved under its name, which defaults to the market and the start date. The Lab page lists your runs, and you can reopen one where you left it. Deleting a run removes its drawings and its journal entries too. > Nothing after the start candle is loaded until you step to it, so you cannot peek ahead. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Is the futures replay really free? Yes. The Trade Lab has no price. You need an account with a verified email, and each account can start 5 new runs per UTC day. ### Which markets can I replay? NQ, ES and GC, as 1-minute data. NQ and ES can also be shown side by side on a split chart for 2016 to 2025. ### How far back can I start a replay? The date field prints the range for the market you picked. Every replay opens with at least three months of history behind the start candle, so the earliest start is a little after the first bar. ### Can I replay yesterday or live data? No. It is a replay of history only. There is no live data. ### Do I need to install anything? No. It runs in the browser on the site. ### How do I reopen a replay I started yesterday? Open the Lab page and pick the run from your list. It opens where you left it, with your drawings, journal entries and paper account. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I replay futures bar by bar? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-replay-futures-bar-by-bar **Press Step to reveal one candle, set a bigger step, press Play for a steady pace, or jump to the next 09:30 or session start.** ## The short answer A replay only moves forward. Each press reveals more of the past, and a replay cannot be moved backward, so you decide before you see the next candle. The controls sit in the bar above the chart. ## Move through a session 1. **Step one candle.** Press Step, or the right arrow or Space. It completes the next candle of the timeframe on screen, so on a 5-minute chart one step reveals the rest of that 5-minute candle and the next. (Screenshot: The control bar of the replay with the Timeframe, Step, Play, speed, Split, Next 09:30 and Next session buttons.) 2. **Watch it build.** Keep stepping and the chart grows candle by candle. The price and the clock in the top line move with it. (Screenshot: A 5-minute NQ chart after three steps, ending at the current candle.) 3. **Make the step bigger.** The small arrow beside Step opens a menu: 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 or 20 candles, or your own number up to 500. (Screenshot: The step size menu open with Step 1 (default), 2, 3, 5, 10 and 20.) 4. **Press Play for a steady pace.** Play (or the P key) reveals candles on its own. Pick 1, 2, 5 or 10 bars a second in the box beside it, and press Play again to pause. (Screenshot: The control bar with the speed set to 5 bars a second.) 5. **Jump to the next session.** Next 09:30 jumps to the next 09:30 Eastern bar. The next session button jumps to the next start: Asia 18:00, London 03:00 or New York 09:30. Both ask you to confirm the reveal. (Screenshot: The confirm bar asking Reveal bars up to Asia 18:00 ET with Reveal and Cancel buttons.) 6. **Change the timeframe.** The first button picks 1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours or 1 day, or your own such as 3m or 2h. The candles are built from the 1-minute bars you have been sent. (Screenshot: The timeframe menu open with six presets and a box for your own timeframe.) ## Why forward-only matters The server never sends a bar later than the current one. If a chart already shows the answer, you are testing your memory, not your read. Forward-only replay keeps the decision honest: you commit to what you see, then step. Stepping on a higher timeframe is faster, and stepping on 1 minute is finer. Many people read the plan on 15 minutes and drop to 1 minute for the entry. A jump asks for confirmation because it reveals many candles at once, and a reveal cannot be taken back. Pressing Step or a jump button also pauses Play, so the pace is always yours. > You choose the pace. The only way is forward, one candle or one jump at a time. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Can I go back one bar in a replay? No. A replay only moves forward. That is what keeps you from seeing a future candle before you decide. ### How do I skip to the New York open? Press Next 09:30. It jumps to the next 09:30 Eastern bar after you confirm. The next session button jumps to Asia 18:00, London 03:00 or New York 09:30, whichever starts next. ### What do the keyboard shortcuts do? The right arrow or Space steps, P plays and pauses, and S shows NQ and ES together on a split chart where both have data. ### How fast can Play go? Up to 10 bars of the current timeframe per second. Pick 1, 2, 5 or 10 in the box beside Play. ### Why did my step move more than one minute? A step completes candles of the timeframe on screen. On a 5-minute chart, one step reaches the end of the next 5-minute candle. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I place a buy (long) paper trade in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-a-buy-paper-trade-in-a-futures-replay **Open the Trade tab, create the paper account once, then press Buy: a market order fills at the last price and the open profit updates as you step.** ## The short answer A buy opens a long position: it gains when price rises. In the Trade Lab the Trade tab places paper orders on the replayed chart. Nothing is real, and every fill is decided by the server from the bars you have reached. This example uses an NQ run. On an ES run the same steps apply with MES or ES as the contract. ## Place a long in five steps 1. **Open the Trade tab and set the account.** The first time, the Trade tab shows an Account card: a starting balance, a contract and a commission. Pick NQ ($20 a point) or MNQ ($2 a point) on an NQ run. (Screenshot: The Trade tab Account card with a starting balance of 50000, the contract NQ at 20 dollars a point, and a commission of 0.) 2. **Create the account.** Press Create account. The account is locked for this run. The tab now shows Account, Open P&L, Open orders and R:R, with the order ticket under them. (Screenshot: The Trade tab after the account is created: four figures and the Buy and Sell buttons.) 3. **Press Buy.** Leave the type on Market and the quantity at 1, then press Buy. A market order fills at once at the last price. A blue line marks the position with its open profit or loss. (Screenshot: A blue position line with the labels SL, TP, 1 and 0.00 USD at the entry price, and a B 1 arrow on the candle.) 4. **Step forward and watch it.** Step candle by candle. Open P&L follows the last price in dollars, and the small equity curve draws a dashed segment while the position is open. (Screenshot: The position line after five steps with a positive open profit in dollars and a rising dashed equity line.) 5. **Close it.** Press Flatten & cancel all, or the x on the position tag, to close at the market. The trade moves to the closed trades count and the equity curve. (Screenshot: The chart after the position was closed: an S 1 flat arrow, one closed trade and a solid equity line.) ## Quantity and speed The Qty box takes a whole number of contracts: 1 to 10 for NQ, ES and GC, and 1 to 100 for the micros. Alt+Shift+B places a market buy at the ticket quantity without touching the mouse. The ticket remembers its last quantity and order type, so a second trade starts where the first ended. The Show execution marks box turns the small arrows on the candles on or off; they mark where an order filled. A market order fills at the last price on the chart, the close of the newest candle you have been sent. A limit or stop order waits for a later bar, which the next guides cover. > A long wins when price rises and loses when it falls, in dollars per point times contracts. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I buy NQ in a replay? Open the Trade tab, create the account once, leave the order type on Market and press Buy. The order fills at the last price shown. ### What is the difference between NQ and MNQ? NQ is worth $20 a point and MNQ $2 a point, so the same move is ten times larger in dollars on NQ. Both are offered on an NQ run. ### Why is there no position after I pressed Buy? Check that the account was created first. The Buy button does nothing until Create account has been pressed. A message above the figures says what the server refused. ### Can I buy more than one contract? Yes. Type a quantity from 1 up to 10 (100 for micros) before you press Buy. ### Does a replay buy move the real market? No. It is a paper order on past data. Nothing is sent anywhere. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I place a sell (short) paper trade in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-a-sell-short-paper-trade-in-a-futures-replay **On the Trade tab press Sell to open a short: it gains when price falls. This example runs on ES with the MES micro contract at $5 a point.** ## The short answer A sell opens a short position: it gains when price falls and loses when it rises. The ticket is the same as for a buy; the Sell button is beside it. This example uses an ES run, so the contracts are MES ($5 a point) and ES ($50 a point). ## Place a short in four steps 1. **Set the account for the market.** Open the Trade tab. On an ES run the contract box offers MES and ES, with the dollars per point printed beside each. Pick MES, set a balance and press Create account. (Screenshot: The Trade tab Account card on an ES run with the contract MES at 5 dollars a point selected.) 2. **Press Sell.** Keep the type on Market and press Sell. The position line is labelled SHORT, and Open P&L is shown in dollars. Step forward and it moves against the last price. (Screenshot: A position line on an ES chart with a negative open profit in dollars after stepping.) 3. **Close the short.** Use the x on the position tag, or Flatten & cancel all. The result goes into the closed trades and the equity curve. (Screenshot: The chart after the short was closed, with the equity curve showing one closed trade.) ## What to know about shorts A short needs no borrowing and no margin in the Lab: the account shows equity, the starting balance plus closed trades plus the open position. If equity falls to zero or below, new entries are blocked, and you can still close the position. On a short, the stop sits above the entry and the target below it. The next guides cover stops and targets. Take one MES as an example. A 4-point fall in ES pays a short $20 and costs a long $20, before commission. The same fall on one ES contract would be $200. The point value, not the price, sets the dollars, which is why the contract list follows the market. The Lab keeps one net position per run. An opposite order first reduces or closes the position you hold, and any quantity left over opens the other side, so you never hold a long and a short together. > Buy and Sell are mirror images: the dollars per point are the same, and only the direction of the gain changes. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I short ES in a replay? Start an ES run, open the Trade tab, create the account with MES or ES, leave the type on Market and press Sell. ### What is MES worth per point? MES is worth $5 a point and ES $50 a point, so a 4-point move on one MES is $20. ### Can I be long and short at once in a replay? No. The Lab keeps one net position per run. A sell while you are long first reduces or closes the long, and any quantity left over opens a short. ### What does Alt+Shift+S do? It places a market sell at the ticket quantity, the way Alt+Shift+B places a market buy. ### Does a short pay more than a long on the same move? No. A fall of 4 points pays a short exactly what a rise of 4 points pays a long, at the same contract and quantity. Commission is the same on both. ### Does the contract list change by market? Yes. NQ runs offer NQ and MNQ, ES runs offer ES and MES, and GC runs offer GC and MGC, so the point value always matches the prices. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I place limit and stop orders in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-limit-and-stop-orders-in-a-futures-replay **Right-click the chart at the price you want, pick the order from the menu, and drag the order line to move it before it fills.** ## The short answer A limit order waits for a better price; a stop order waits for a break through a level. In the Trade Lab you place both by right-clicking the chart, or by choosing Limit or Stop in the ticket and typing a price. The menu follows the last price. Above it you get Buy stop and Sell limit; below it you get Buy limit and Sell stop. At the last price itself there is nothing to place. ## Place and move a working order 1. **Right-click above the last price.** Right-click the chart at the level. The menu offers Buy stop and Sell limit at that price, snapped to the tick, with the ticket quantity beside each. (Screenshot: A right-click menu on the chart with Buy stop and Sell limit at 21,898.50 above the last price.) 2. **Right-click below it.** Below the last price the same menu offers Buy limit and Sell stop. (Screenshot: A right-click menu with Buy limit and Sell stop at 21,818.50 below the last price.) 3. **See the working orders.** Each order is a dashed line with a tag: the quantity, the type and a cancel x. The Open orders figure counts them. (Screenshot: Two dashed order lines tagged SELL LMT and BUY LMT, and the Open orders figure showing 2.) 4. **Drag a line to move it.** Press on the tag and drag the line to a new price. A ghost line follows the pointer, and the order moves when you let go. (Screenshot: A buy limit line being dragged up toward the last price.) 5. **Let the replay fill it.** Step forward. A working order fills on a later 1-minute bar when price reaches it, and a gap through it fills at the open. The line becomes a position. (Screenshot: The two order lines after the buy limit was moved closer to the last price.) 6. **Check the fill.** The filled order turns into a position line with its open profit or loss, and the arrow on the candle marks the fill. (Screenshot: A position line opened by the filled buy limit, with the sell limit still working above it.) ## Rules the Lab enforces A buy limit must be below the last price and a buy stop above it; a sell limit must be above and a sell stop below. The Lab refuses a price on the wrong side with a message that names the right order type. - Prices snap to the contract tick: 0.25 on NQ and ES, 0.10 on GC. - An order placed at the current cursor does not fill on a bar at or before that cursor. - The x on an order tag cancels it, and Flatten & cancel all clears every working order. > A limit order is a price you want. A stop order is a price you give up on or a break you want to catch. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I place a limit order in a replay? Right-click the chart below the last price for a Buy limit or above it for a Sell limit, or pick Limit in the ticket, type a price and press Buy or Sell. ### What is the difference between a buy limit and a buy stop? A buy limit waits below the last price and a buy stop waits above it. The Lab offers whichever one is valid for the price you right-click. ### How do I move or cancel an order? Drag the order tag to a new price, or press the x on the tag to cancel it. ### What happens if price gaps through my order? A gap through an order fills at the open of the bar that gapped, not at your price. ### Why does the menu say it is the last price? You right-clicked at the last price. Pick a level above or below it. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I set a stop loss and take profit in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-set-a-stop-loss-and-take-profit-in-a-futures-replay **Drag the SL or TP handle out of the position line to a price, and the Lab shows what that stop or target pays before you let go.** ## The short answer A stop loss closes a position at a worse price to cap the loss; a take profit closes it at a better price to bank the gain. In the Trade Lab you drag each one out of the position line on the chart. There is no form to fill in. ## Drag a stop and a target 1. **Open a position.** Place a market buy or sell. The position line has a tag with SL and TP handles, the quantity, the open profit and a close x. (Screenshot: A long position line on an NQ chart with SL and TP handles on its tag.) 2. **Drag out the stop.** Press the SL handle and drag away from the entry. A red ghost line follows, and a label reads the dollars, the points and the contracts the stop would lose. Release to place it. (Screenshot: A red stop line being dragged below the entry with a label showing the loss in dollars and points.) 3. **Drag out the target.** Do the same with the TP handle in the other direction. The label shows what the target would pay. (Screenshot: A green target line being dragged above the entry with a label showing the profit in dollars and points.) 4. **Read the R:R.** With both set, the R:R figure shows the target distance over the stop distance, measured from the average entry price. (Screenshot: The Trade tab with the stop and target lines on the chart and the R:R figure filled in.) 5. **Let the replay decide.** Step forward. If price touches the stop or the target, the position closes there. If a bar touches both, the stop fills, because the Lab cannot know which came first inside a 1-minute bar. (Screenshot: The chart after the stop filled: a closed trade and an equity curve that fell.) ## Details that matter The label shows points from the entry price times the contracts times the point value; commission is not included. Drag any line to move it later, and press the x on its tag to cancel it. You can also right-click the chart while a position is open and choose Set stop loss or Set take profit at that price. A gap through a stop fills at the open, which can be worse than the stop price. A position is also closed when the contract rolls and at the end of the data. The stop and the target are separate working orders, so each counts in the Open orders figure while it waits. Moving a line changes only that order, and the R:R figure follows the lines as you drag them. Where you put the stop is the part of a trade you control before it starts. Writing the reason for it in the journal, before you step, makes the later stats easier to read. > If one bar touches both the stop and the target, the stop fills. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I set a stop loss in a futures replay? Open a position, then drag the SL handle on the position tag away from the entry to the price you want and release. ### How do I set a take profit? Drag the TP handle the other way, or right-click the chart at the price and choose Set take profit. ### What if the stop and target are in the same bar? The stop fills. A 1-minute bar does not say which price came first, so the Lab takes the cautious side. ### Does the label include commission? No. The dragged label is points times contracts times the point value. Commission is charged when the trade closes. ### Can I set the stop before I enter? Not with the ticket. The stop and target are dragged out of a position, or set from the right-click menu while one is open. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I set up the paper account in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-set-up-the-paper-account-in-a-futures-replay **The Trade tab asks for a starting balance, a contract and a commission once per run; they lock when you press Create account.** ## The short answer Every run has its own paper account, and you set it once. It has three settings: the starting balance in dollars, the contract, and the commission in dollars per contract per side. They lock for the run so that the equity and the stats cannot be quietly changed after a bad trade. ## Set up the account 1. **Fill in the three settings.** Open the Trade tab. Type a starting balance, pick the contract, and type the commission you want to pay on each side of a trade. Zero is allowed. (Screenshot: The Account card with a balance of 100000, the contract MNQ at 2 dollars a point and a commission of 2.50.) 2. **Press Create account.** The settings lock for this run and the card disappears. The tab now shows Account (your equity), Open P&L, Open orders and R:R, and the order ticket. (Screenshot: The Trade tab after the account was created, with the figures at the top and the ticket below.) 3. **Trade and watch the equity.** Each closed trade adds its net result to the balance. The Account figure is the starting balance plus closed trades plus the open position, and the small curve below draws it. (Screenshot: The Trade tab after a three-contract trade was closed, with the equity higher than the start and one closed trade.) ## Choosing the settings The contract follows the market: NQ runs offer NQ ($20 a point) and MNQ ($2), ES runs offer ES ($50) and MES ($5), and GC runs offer GC ($100) and MGC ($10). The quantity limit is 10 for the full-size contracts and 100 for the micros. Commission is charged on both sides, so a round trip of three contracts at $2.50 a side costs $15. The commission can be between 0 and 100 dollars. If you want to compare two commission settings, start a second run. Four figures sit above the order ticket. Account is equity: the starting balance plus closed trades plus the open position. Open P&L is the unrealised result in dollars. Open orders counts the orders still waiting, stops and targets included. R:R is the target distance over the stop distance, and it stays empty until both lines exist. If equity falls to zero or below, a red message says new entries are blocked. The position that is open can still be closed. > The account is set once per run. To try different settings, start a new run. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Can I change the starting balance after I create the account? No. The balance, contract and commission lock for the run. Start a new run to try different settings. ### What starting balance should I use? Use the size of the account you plan to trade. The Lab does not judge it; it only keeps the equity and the stats consistent with the number you type. ### Is commission charged on every side? Yes. It is dollars per contract per side, so each round trip pays it twice. ### What happens if the equity reaches zero? New entries are blocked. You can still close the position that is open. ### Why can I not edit the commission after the first trade? The settings lock when you press Create account, so the equity and the stats always match one set of costs. Start a new run to test another. ### Where do I set the contract for ES or gold? In the same Contract box. ES runs list ES and MES, and GC runs list GC and MGC. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I use the drawing tools in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-use-drawing-tools-in-a-futures-replay **Pick the horizontal ray, trend line, box with levels or Fibonacci tool, click the chart, then style the drawing from the bar that appears.** ## The short answer The toolbar on the left of the chart has four drawing tools. Each drawing belongs to the run and stays where you put it as the replay moves on. Drawings are yours: nothing else reads them unless you save a chart. ## Draw on the chart 1. **Find the tools.** Pointer is first; Esc returns to it. Then come the Horizontal ray (Alt+H), Trend line (Alt+T), Box with levels (Alt+B) and Fib (Alt+F). Below them are Magnet, Stay in drawing mode and Hide all drawings. (Screenshot: The drawing toolbar with the pointer, ray, trend line, box, Fibonacci, magnet, lock and eye buttons.) 2. **Click to draw.** Choose a tool, then click the chart. A horizontal ray takes one click; a trend line, a box and a Fibonacci take two. With Magnet on, a point snaps to the nearest open, high, low or close within 18 pixels. (Screenshot: A trend line drawn on the chart with its style bar above it showing line width, line style and presets.) 3. **Style it.** Select a drawing and a small bar appears. Change the colour, the width from 1 to 4 pixels and the style (solid, dashed or dotted), extend it right, clone it, lock it or delete it. Box and Fibonacci also open a Levels editor. (Screenshot: A chart with a horizontal ray, a trend line, a box and a Fibonacci retracement with its levels labelled.) 4. **Manage the list.** The layers button opens the Drawings list: every drawing with its price range, an eye to hide it, a lock and a bin. Delete all drawings sits below the toolbar, and Ctrl+Z undoes it in one step. (Screenshot: The Drawings panel listing a Fibonacci, a box, a trend line and a horizontal ray with eye, lock and delete buttons.) ## Using them well A horizontal ray is a level: yesterday high, the opening range, a round number. A box with levels marks a zone and its own price levels. A Fibonacci retracement divides a swing into the levels you choose. A trend line is the cheapest way to say where you would be wrong. Drawings are part of the journal. Each entry stamps how many drawings were live, and a saved chart keeps them. A drawing placed after the cursor moves on does not change an old entry. - Alt+H, Alt+T, Alt+B and Alt+F pick the tools, and Esc returns to the pointer. - Ctrl+Z undoes and Ctrl+Y redoes; Delete all drawings is one undo step. - The eye button hides every drawing without deleting any of them. > Draw before you step. A level you mark in advance is a rule; one you draw afterwards is a story. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### What drawing tools does the Trade Lab have? Four: a horizontal ray, a trend line, a box with levels and a Fibonacci retracement, with adjustable colours, line styles and levels. ### How do I draw a Fibonacci retracement in a replay? Choose Fib (Alt+F), click the swing start and then the swing end. Open Levels from the bar to change the levels. ### How do I delete all my drawings? Use Delete all drawings under the toolbar and confirm. Ctrl+Z restores them in one step. ### Do my drawings stay when I step forward? Yes. They belong to the run and stay where you placed them, and you can hide them all with the eye button. ### Do drawings change the replay or the fills? No. Drawings are for you. Orders and fills use only the order lines and the bars you have reached. ### Can I keep drawing after the first one? Turn on Stay in drawing mode and the tool stays selected until you press Esc. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I journal my trades in a futures replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-journal-your-trades-in-a-futures-replay **Pick a decision, add tags and a note, and press Enter journal entry: the server stamps the time and last price, and the entry locks once you step.** ## The short answer The Journal tab is where you write down a decision before you see the next candle. An entry has a decision (long, short, no trade or wait), optional tags and a note of up to 2,000 characters. It is stamped with the server clock, so it cannot be backdated. ## Write an entry 1. **Choose the decision.** On the Journal tab press Long, Short, No trade or Wait. A decision is optional, but it is what the Journal habit figure on the stats page reads. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Long chosen, a tag opening range, and a note filled in.) 2. **Add a tag and a note.** Type a tag of up to 24 characters and press Add, then click it to attach it to the entry. Write what you see and what you would do. The line under the note shows the stamp: session, Eastern time, timeframe, last price and drawings. (Screenshot: The same composer with the stamp line showing the session, time, timeframe and last price.) 3. **Press Enter journal entry.** The entry is saved with the time and the last close from the server, plus a snapshot of your drawings. It shows as Editable. (Screenshot: The saved entry in the list with a green Long badge and the word Editable.) 4. **Step on and let it lock.** Once the cursor moves, the entry shows Locked. To add a later thought, open the entry and press Write a follow-up, which creates a new entry linked to it. (Screenshot: The entry after the replay moved on, with the Locked badge.) ## Why it locks An entry is editable only until the cursor moves. After that it is a record of what you thought with the information you had, which is the point of keeping one. A follow-up leaves the original as written. Entries stay with their run, and the run card on the Lab page counts them. A regular account has no download for the journal today, so the notes live in the Lab with the run. A good entry is short and specific: the level, the reason, and what would prove it wrong. Tags make a second pass easier, because you can filter your own thinking by setup name. The By tag panel on the stats page groups your closed trades by the tags on the entry written before each fill. > Write the decision before you step. An entry written after the candle is a comment, not a record. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I keep a trading journal in a replay? Open the Journal tab, choose a decision, add tags and a note, and press Enter journal entry before you step. ### Can I edit an entry later? Only until the cursor moves. After that it is locked, and you can write a follow-up entry instead. ### Can I export my journal to CSV? Not from a regular account today. Entries stay in the Lab with their run. ### What does the server stamp on an entry? The time, the Eastern clock, the timeframe, the last close and a snapshot of the live drawings. ### What is a follow-up entry? A new entry linked to an earlier one. The earlier entry stays as written, and the follow-up carries the later thought with its own time and price. ### How many tags can I use? Make your own tags, each up to 24 characters, and attach any of them to an entry. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I read my futures replay stats? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-read-your-futures-replay-stats **The Your backtesting section of the Lab page turns your closed paper trades into a trade count, win rate, net, average R, profit factor and drawdown.** ## The short answer Close some paper trades in a replay, and the Lab page gains a Your backtesting section. It reads the same closed trades as the Trade tab, after commission, and shows them as tiles, an equity curve and breakdowns. The pictures below come from a throwaway sample run, so the figures are not a result of anything. ## Read the page from the top 1. **Pick a run.** Each run with at least one closed trade has a chip at the top. Choose one to read it; the figures and the charts update without a new page. (Screenshot: The Your backtesting header with a row of run chips above six figure tiles.) 2. **Read the six tiles.** Paper trades is the count. Win rate is the share that closed above zero. Net is the total after commissions. Average trade is in R, the profit or loss as a multiple of the stop distance. Profit factor is dollars won divided by dollars lost. Max drawdown is the largest peak-to-low fall in dollars. (Screenshot: Six tiles: paper trades, win rate, net, average trade in R, profit factor and max drawdown.) 3. **Check the equity curve.** The curve plots the account trade by trade from the starting balance. Next to it, Long vs short splits the average R by side, and By tag splits it by the tags on your journal entries. (Screenshot: An equity curve from number 1 to number 16 beside the By tag and Long vs short panels.) 4. **Look for patterns.** By hour and By weekday group the trades by the Eastern time and day they opened. Journal habit compares trades that had a long or short journal entry before the fill with trades that did not. (Screenshot: Three panels: By hour in Eastern time, By weekday and Journal habit.) HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## What the figures mean R needs a stop. A trade with no stop still counts in the dollar figures but has no R. A handful of trades says little, and the page prints what it has without saying more. Journal habit uses your own entries: a trade counts as planned when a journal entry with the decision long or short was written at or before its fill. It shows whether writing first changes your results, nothing more, and with few trades it will move a lot from one trade to the next. The figures describe your paper trades only. They are simulated, they do not predict anything, and they use 1-minute fills. > These are counts and ratios of your own paper trades. The page does not judge them. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Where are my replay stats? On the Lab page, under Your backtesting. It appears once a run has a closed paper trade. ### What is profit factor? Dollars won divided by dollars lost across the closed trades in the run you picked. ### What is R in the stats? A trade result divided by the distance from the entry to the stop that was working when it opened. Trades with no stop have no R. ### How is max drawdown measured? In dollars, from the highest point of the equity curve to the lowest point after it. ### Why do some trades have no R? R is measured against the stop that was working when the position opened. A trade opened without a stop still counts in the dollar figures, but it has no R. ### How many trades do I need before the stats mean anything? More than a few. See the explainer on how many trades a backtest needs. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I turn a futures replay into a full backtest? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-turn-a-futures-replay-into-a-full-backtest **Save the chart from the Save tab, open the builder from the replay, and import the saved charts into an order; up to five charts per order.** ## The short answer A replay is a by-hand test. When your rules are exact enough to write down, send the idea to the tester to run on the full history. The Save tab keeps the charts you want to show, and the builder imports them into the order. ## From replay to order 1. **Save the chart.** Open the Save tab. Save this chart keeps the candles up to the cursor and your drawings, with an optional note about what we should look at. (Screenshot: The Save tab with the Save this chart box and a list of journal entries to tick.) 2. **Or save from your journal.** Tick journal entries and press Save selected to save the chart as it was at each one. Saved charts are listed at the bottom of the tab. (Screenshot: The Save tab after a chart was saved, with the saved message and the saved charts list.) 3. **Open the builder.** The Builder link at the top right of the replay opens the strategy builder with this run saved charts ticked. (Screenshot: The Builder link in the top bar of the replay.) 4. **Import the charts.** In the builder, Import chart from Lab shows a count of the charts you can attach, and the Charts from the Lab list shows each one. An order takes up to 5 charts. (Screenshot: The builder with the Import chart from Lab button showing one chart and the Charts from the Lab list.) 5. **Describe the rules and order.** Fill in the bias, entry, stop and target in the builder. The tester runs those rules on the full history of the market and sends back every trade with the assumptions used. (Screenshot: The builder showing five rule layers from bias to target, with the saved chart attached.) ## What changes between a replay and a backtest A replay is one session at a time and depends on your judgement. A backtest runs fixed rules over years, with the same fills each time. Many people replay a setup for a few weeks to find the rules, and then test the written rules. The saved charts help the tester read what you meant, because a drawn level is clearer than a sentence. The builder asks for five layers in order: bias, filters, entry, stop and target. Nothing is picked for you, and each layer is written the way you would say it to another trader, in your own words and numbers. Every version of a backtest costs $19. > Replay finds the rules. A backtest checks them on more history than you can click through. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I backtest what I practised in a replay? Save the charts, open the builder from the replay, import them into an order and describe the rules. The tester runs the rules on the full history. ### How many charts can I attach to an order? Up to 5 charts per order. ### Do saved charts include my drawings? Yes. A saved chart keeps the candles up to the cursor and your drawings, plus a note if you wrote one. ### Is the full backtest free? The replay is free. Every version of a backtest is $19. ### Is a replay the same as a backtest? No. A replay is by hand, one candle at a time. A backtest runs fixed rules over the history at once. ### Do I need to save a chart to use the builder? No. You can describe the rules in the builder without any chart. Saved charts are an extra: they show the tester the candles and levels you were looking at. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Is there a free alternative to FX Replay for futures? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/free-alternative-to-fx-replay-for-futures **Yes: the Trade Lab replays NQ, ES and GC bar by bar for free with a verified email, while FX Replay lists futures data only on its paid Pro plan.** ## The short answer Yes. The Trade Lab on this site is a free bar-by-bar replay with paper trading for NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100), ES (E-mini S&P 500) and GC (COMEX gold). We run it, so we describe it plainly and list what it lacks below. As of October 2026, FX Replay’s pricing page (fxreplay.com/pricing) shows a free Beginner plan, and shows futures and CME data on its Pro plan only. So a free FX Replay account is not a way to replay futures. ## FX Replay and the Trade Lab side by side FX Replay facts are from fxreplay.com and fxreplay.com/pricing, read in October 2026. Our facts are from the Lab itself. ## What FX Replay says about itself Its FAQ calls it a browser-based backtesting and trading practice platform that steps through real historical data one candle at a time and covers futures, forex, stocks, indices and crypto. The free plan, it says, requires no credit card and never expires. Its pricing page lists 2 backtesting sessions, 1 indicator and 50 trades per session on Beginner, with sessions kept for one week. The page gives two sets of monthly prices that disagree with each other, so check the vendor for the current ones. ## What the Trade Lab gives you You pick NQ, ES or GC and a start date, then step forward one candle at a time or jump to the next 09:30 or the next session. The server never sends a bar later than the current one. You can draw with a horizontal ray, a trend line, a box with levels and a Fibonacci tool, keep a journal, and place paper market, limit and stop orders in the market’s own contract. Prices are raw, not back-adjusted, and the first bar of a new contract is marked on a roll. ## What the Trade Lab does not have The Lab replays history only. It has no live data, no real order is ever placed, and it covers three markets: NQ, ES and GC. Data is 1-minute bars, so there is no tick, seconds or order-flow data, and paper fills are modelled on those 1-minute bars and approximate real fills. A replay cannot be moved backward, and the Lab has no built-in indicators. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. ## Which one fits Three questions settle it. - Do you trade only NQ, ES or gold? The Lab covers them for free. Other markets need another tool. - Do you need indicators, seconds data or rewind? FX Replay lists those on paid plans. The Lab has none of them. - Is a daily cap acceptable? The Lab limits each account to 40 sessions and 5 new runs a UTC day. > Check the market and the plan first: a free replay is only useful if it holds the market you trade. ## Questions and answers ### Is there a free alternative to FX Replay for futures? Yes. The Trade Lab is free with an account and a verified email, and replays NQ, ES and GC bar by bar. It has no live data and no other markets. ### Does FX Replay have a free plan? Its pricing page shows a free Beginner plan with 2 backtesting sessions, 1 indicator and 50 trades per session. Futures and CME data is listed on its Pro plan. ### Can I replay ES or NQ futures on FX Replay for free? The pricing page lists futures and CME data on the Pro plan only, so not on the free plan. Check the vendor for the current plan contents. ### Can I move backward in the Trade Lab like a rewind button? No. A replay in the Lab only moves forward. FX Replay’s pricing page lists rewind price on its Intermediate and Pro plans. ### What data does the Trade Lab use? 1-minute bars of NQ, ES and GC futures, raw and not back-adjusted, with the first bar of a new contract marked. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # TradingView Bar Replay vs the Trade Lab for NQ and ES futures Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/tradingview-bar-replay-vs-trade-lab-nq-es **TradingView Bar Replay sits inside a full charting platform; the Trade Lab is a free futures-only replay that fills paper orders on the replayed history.** ## The short answer They do different jobs. TradingView Bar Replay is one feature of a charting platform with many markets, indicators and drawing tools. The Trade Lab is a single-purpose futures replay with paper trading that runs on the replayed prices. Facts about TradingView are from its help center and pricing page, read in October 2026. We run the Lab and list what it lacks below. ## Side by side TradingView sources: tradingview.com/support (Bar Replay and the replay data article) and tradingview.com/pricing. ## What TradingView says Bar Replay does Its help says Bar Replay lets you simulate past price movements. You click a bar to set the start, press Play, change the speed, or press Forward to advance one bar at a time. It lists chart types that do not work in replay, including Renko, Kagi, Range and footprint charts. Depth depends on the plan and the symbol. Its replay data article says Essential has 6 months of 1-minute data and Plus has one year, while Premium and the professional plans go much further for some symbols. It also says those limits are not applied to continuous futures charts such as 1! and 2! symbols, which have their own intraday limits. ## The order question TradingView’s help says trading orders are executed using real-time data, including those in Paper Trading, and that quotes on the trading panel also show real-time data during replay. For practice that means an order placed in a replay does not fill against the history you are replaying. In the Lab it does. The Trade tab takes market, limit and stop orders, and the replay fills them on the 1-minute bars as they are revealed, with a gap filling at the open and the stop winning a same-bar tie. Because those fills use 1-minute bars, they approximate real ones. ## What the Trade Lab does not have The Lab replays history only. It has no live data, no real order is ever placed, and it covers three markets: NQ, ES and GC. Data is 1-minute bars, so there is no tick, seconds or order-flow data, and paper fills are modelled on those 1-minute bars and approximate real fills. A replay cannot be moved backward, and the Lab has no built-in indicators. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. ## Which one fits Pick by the job. - You already use TradingView and want replay on its charts and indicators: Bar Replay is already there on the paid plans. - You want to practise entries, stops and targets on NQ or ES with fills that follow the replayed bars: the Lab is built for that. - You trade other markets or need indicators: the Lab does not cover them. > Bar Replay and the Lab can sit side by side: read the chart in one, rehearse the orders in the other. ## Questions and answers ### Does TradingView Bar Replay work on futures? Its help says replay can be used on futures, and that its replay limits do not apply to continuous futures charts, which have their own intraday limits. CME data is added separately. ### Is TradingView Bar Replay free? Its pricing page lists Bar Replay under Essential and above. We could not confirm it on the Basic plan from the page, so check the vendor. ### Can I paper trade inside TradingView Bar Replay? TradingView says orders use real-time data, including Paper Trading, so they do not fill against the replayed bars. ### Does the Trade Lab have indicators like TradingView? No. It has four drawing tools and no built-in indicators. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # NinjaTrader Market Replay vs a browser-based replay Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ninjatrader-market-replay-vs-browser-based-replay **NinjaTrader Market Replay plays recorded market data inside a desktop platform; the Trade Lab is a browser replay of 1-minute bars with nothing to install.** ## The short answer NinjaTrader Market Replay is a desktop feature that plays back recorded market data, including tick data, through a simulated connection. The Trade Lab is a browser tool that replays 1-minute bars. They suit different levels of detail. Facts about NinjaTrader are from its pricing page (ninjatrader.com/pricing) and its help guide for the Playback connection, read in October 2026. We run the Lab. ## Side by side Sources: ninjatrader.com/pricing and NinjaTrader’s help guide page on the Playback connection. ## What NinjaTrader says The pricing page says to add funds to a live account to unlock tools such as real-time market data, Order Flow+ and Market Replay, and describes Market Replay as testing strategies against historical market data, with play, pause and rewind tick by tick. The same page lists free simulated trading among tools available without funding, and says NinjaTrader is free for charting, strategy backtesting and simulated trading. Its help guide says you can play back either Market Replay data or historical tick data. Market Replay holds the exact sequence of Level I and Level II data. Historical tick data plays chart data without market depth, with accuracy that depends on your data provider. NinjaTrader offers a limited amount of Market Replay data free to download, and only the most common instruments are available. You cannot download replay data while connected to Playback. ## What the Trade Lab does instead There is nothing to download or record. You pick NQ, ES or GC and a start date and step forward one candle at a time. The server never sends a bar later than the current one. You can draw on the chart, journal each decision and place paper orders that fill on the revealed 1-minute bars. That is coarser than tick replay. A rule that depends on what happened inside one minute, or on market depth, cannot be practised in the Lab. ## What the Trade Lab does not have The Lab replays history only. It has no live data, no real order is ever placed, and it covers three markets: NQ, ES and GC. Data is 1-minute bars, so there is no tick, seconds or order-flow data, and paper fills are modelled on those 1-minute bars and approximate real fills. A replay cannot be moved backward, and the Lab has no built-in indicators. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. ## Which one fits Decide by the detail you need. - You trade off order flow, depth or tick timing: tick-level replay in a desktop platform is the closer match. - You practise reads, entries and stops on 1-minute and higher charts and want no setup: a browser replay is quicker to start. - You want both: practise the read in the Lab, then use tick replay for execution detail. > The deciding question is detail: tick and depth data, or 1-minute bars with nothing to install. ## Questions and answers ### Is NinjaTrader Market Replay free? Its pricing page says adding funds to a live account unlocks Market Replay. It also says NinjaTrader is free for charting, strategy backtesting and simulated trading. Check the vendor for what your account includes. ### Can I replay futures in a browser instead of NinjaTrader? Yes. The Trade Lab replays NQ, ES and GC 1-minute bars in the browser for free, with no download. ### Does the Trade Lab have tick data like Market Replay? No. It uses 1-minute bars only, so fills are modelled on those bars and approximate real fills. ### What is the difference between Market Replay data and historical tick data in NinjaTrader? Its help guide says Market Replay data holds the exact sequence of Level I and Level II data, while historical tick data plays without market depth and depends on your data provider. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Tradezella and Edgewonk replay vs a free futures replay Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/tradezella-edgewonk-replay-vs-free-futures-replay **Tradezella lists backtesting and trade replay inside a journal, Edgewonk describes a journal, and the Trade Lab is a free futures replay.** ## The short answer Tradezella and Edgewonk are trading journals first. Tradezella also lists bar-by-bar backtesting and a trade replay. Edgewonk’s pricing page describes a journal and does not mention replay. The Trade Lab is a replay first, with a journal built in, and it is free. Facts about the two journals are from tradezella.com/pricing and edgewonk.com/pricing, read in October 2026. We run the Lab. ## Side by side Only what each page states is listed. “Not stated” means the page did not show it. ## Tradezella Its pricing page lists three plans. Manual backtesting is shown on all three, listing stocks, futures, crypto and CFDs against “11+ years of historical data”. Trade replay is “Unlimited replays” on Pro and Ultra and “Not included” on Essential. The page says all plans support 500+ broker and prop firm integrations, and shows no free plan or trial length. ## Edgewonk Its pricing page describes a trading journal with “structured performance analytics”. It shows $35 billed monthly or $197 for 12 months, and a 14-day money-back guarantee. It lists “Strategy testing” and a “Performance simulator” but does not say whether they replay historical prices, and does not mention bar replay or trade replay. Anything beyond that is for Edgewonk to say. ## A different kind of replay A journal replay normally revisits trades you already took. A bar replay such as the Trade Lab shows history before you decide, so it practises the decision itself. The Lab keeps a journal of those decisions: long, short, no trade or wait, with tags and a note, stamped by the server. The Lab does not connect to a broker and does not import real trades. That also means the two do not overlap much. Nothing in the Lab reads your broker statement, scores a live account or syncs prop accounts. If you want that, a journal is the tool. If you want to rehearse a setup on NQ, ES or gold before you risk anything, the Lab is the tool, and its cost is only the daily limits listed below. Both kinds of tool depend on the person using them. A replay session only teaches something if you write down the decision before you step, and a journal only helps if you review it. ## What the Trade Lab does not have The Lab replays history only. It has no live data, no real order is ever placed, and it covers three markets: NQ, ES and GC. Data is 1-minute bars, so there is no tick, seconds or order-flow data, and paper fills are modelled on those 1-minute bars and approximate real fills. A replay cannot be moved backward, and the Lab has no built-in indicators. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. ## Which one fits Match the tool to the habit you want to build. - Reviewing the trades you actually took, across accounts: a journal is built for that. - Practising the next decision on history, for free: a bar replay. - Both: many traders keep a journal for live trades and a replay for practice. > A journal looks back at trades you took; a bar replay lets you practise the decision before you see what comes next. ## Questions and answers ### Does Tradezella have a free plan? Its pricing page shows no free plan and states no free trial length. Trade replay is listed on Pro and Ultra, not Essential. ### Does Edgewonk have a replay feature? Its pricing page does not mention bar replay or trade replay. It lists strategy testing and a performance simulator without describing them. ### Is there a free futures replay with a journal? Yes. The Trade Lab replays NQ, ES and GC bar by bar and keeps a journal of each decision. It is free with a verified email. ### Can the Trade Lab import my real broker trades? No. It records only the decisions and paper trades you make inside the replay. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Is there a free futures paper-trading simulator with historical data? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/free-futures-paper-trading-simulator-with-historical-data **Yes: the Trade Lab paper trades NQ, ES and GC on historical 1-minute bars for free; most platform simulators fill on live data instead.** ## The short answer Yes. The Trade Lab on this site is a free paper-trading simulator that runs on historical futures data: you replay NQ, ES or GC bar by bar and place market, limit and stop orders against the bars as they appear. We run it, so the list of what it lacks is below. Most platform simulators are different. They fill paper orders against live prices, so you practise in real time rather than on the past. Facts about other products are from their own pages, read in October 2026. - **Paper trading**: Placing orders against a simulated account, not a real one. - **Replay**: Past data shown one bar at a time, with later bars hidden. ## Simulators compared Sources: tradingview.com/support (Paper Trading and Bar Replay), ninjatrader.com/pricing and info.tradovate.com/simulated-trading. ## Live-data simulators TradingView’s help says Paper Trading is available globally for all users and supports stocks, forex, crypto and commodity and index futures. Its Bar Replay help adds that orders execute using real-time data, including in Paper Trading. NinjaTrader’s pricing page lists free simulated trading among tools available without funding, and says Market Replay is unlocked by funding a live account. Tradovate’s simulated trading page offers a free two-week demo with $50,000 in practice funds and real-time market data. These are useful for practising platform mechanics against the live market. They do not let you pick last Tuesday’s session and trade it bar by bar for free. ## How the Trade Lab paper trades history You set a starting balance, contract and commission per side once per run. NQ runs offer NQ or MNQ, ES runs offer ES or MES, and GC runs offer GC or MGC. Right-click the chart to place an order at that price, and drag the stop and target out of the position. Fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars. A gap through an order fills at the open, and if a stop and a target are touched in the same bar, the stop fills. A position is closed at a contract roll. ## What the Trade Lab does not have The Lab replays history only. It has no live data, no real order is ever placed, and it covers three markets: NQ, ES and GC. Data is 1-minute bars, so there is no tick, seconds or order-flow data, and paper fills are modelled on those 1-minute bars and approximate real fills. A replay cannot be moved backward, and the Lab has no built-in indicators. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. ## What to check in any simulator Four questions apply to all of them. - What data do the fills use: live prices or historical bars? - Which markets and how far back? - What happens at the free limit: a time limit, a session cap or a feature lock? - How are same-bar stop and target touches handled? > A simulator on live data lets you practise the platform; a simulator on history lets you practise the decision. ## Questions and answers ### Is there a free futures paper-trading simulator with historical data? Yes. The Trade Lab is free with a verified email and fills paper orders on historical NQ, ES and GC 1-minute bars as the replay reveals them. ### Can I paper trade a past trading day? In the Trade Lab, yes: pick a market and a start date, step forward and place orders. There is no live data. ### Does TradingView paper trading use historical data? TradingView’s help says orders use real-time data, including those in Paper Trading while Bar Replay runs. ### How accurate are the paper fills in the Trade Lab? They are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. A stop wins a same-bar tie with a target. ### Is any real money involved? No. No real order is ever placed in the Trade Lab. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I practise the New York open on NQ with bar replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-the-new-york-open-on-nq-with-bar-replay **Jump a replay to 09:30 ET, mark the overnight range, step the first candles one at a time and journal the decision before each step.** ## The short answer The New York open is the 09:30 Eastern candle, when the cash session of NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) starts. A bar replay lets you arrive at that candle again and again with nothing after it on the chart, so you can practise your reading of the first hour without hindsight. This walkthrough uses NQ on Tuesday 2025-06-10 (contract NQM5) in the Trade Lab. It teaches a routine, not a setup: it makes no claim that any approach to the open pays. - **Overnight range**: The high and low of the Asia and London hours, from the 18:00 Eastern session start to the bar before 09:30. - **Session start**: The Lab’s three starts are Asia 18:00, London 03:00 and New York 09:30, all Eastern. ## A routine for the first 30 minutes 1. **Jump to 09:30.** Start an NQ replay on 2025-06-10 and press Next 09:30. The Lab asks you to confirm the reveal, because a jump shows many candles at once and cannot be undone. (Screenshot: The confirm bar of the replay reading Reveal bars up to the next 09:30 ET bar, with Reveal and Cancel buttons.) 2. **Read the screen at the bell.** After Reveal the top line reads 09:30 ET and the chart ends at the current candle. Nothing later is loaded. (Screenshot: A 5-minute NQ chart ending at 09:30 ET, with the top line showing the contract NQM5 and the last price.) 3. **Mark the overnight range.** Switch to a 15-minute chart so the whole range fits, then draw a horizontal ray at the overnight high, 21,973.25, and another at the low, 21,732.00. Drawings stay when you change the timeframe. (Screenshot: A 15-minute NQ chart with two horizontal rays, one at the overnight high 21,973.25 and one at the low 21,732.00.) 4. **Step the first candles.** Go back to 5 minutes and press Step three times. Each press completes the next 5-minute candle, so you reach 09:44 with the 09:30, 09:35 and 09:40 candles complete. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 09:44 ET with the first three New York candles drawn.) 5. **Write the decision before you go on.** Choose Long, Short, No trade or Wait, add a tag such as ny open, and write what you see. Here the entry is Wait, because the first 15 minutes are not finished. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Wait selected, the tag ny open and a note about waiting for the first 15 minutes.) 6. **Step on and compare.** Enter the entry, then step again. The entry is locked, so you cannot rewrite it with hindsight. Here three more steps reach 09:59. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 09:59 ET after three more steps, with the journal entry already saved.) ## What to look at on the first candles Common questions at the open are where price sits against the overnight range, whether the first candles stay inside it or leave it, and how large the first candles are next to the ones before. The Lab does not answer them for you. It gives you the chart, the rays and a place to write. Run the same routine on several dates. Because each run is saved, you can open an earlier one and read your own entries in order. > Practise the routine, not the outcome: the same steps on many different mornings. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I jump to the 9:30 open in a replay? Press Next 09:30 in the control bar and confirm. It reveals every bar up to the next 09:30 Eastern bar. ### What is the overnight range on NQ? The high and low from the 18:00 Eastern session start to the bar before 09:30. You mark it with two horizontal rays. ### Can I practise the open on ES or gold as well? Yes. ES and GC replay the same way, and the 09:30 jump is the same button. ### Can I see the next candle before I decide? No. The server never sends a bar later than the current one, and a replay cannot be moved backward. ### Does a journal entry change when I step forward? No. An entry stops being editable once the replay moves on, and a later thought goes in a follow-up entry. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I practise an opening-range strategy bar by bar? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-an-opening-range-strategy-bar-by-bar **Step to the end of the first 15 minutes, box the range, step candle by candle until one closes outside it, journal the call and paper trade it.** ## The short answer An opening range is the high and low of the first minutes after 09:30 Eastern. An opening-range strategy waits for price to leave that box. Practising it bar by bar means building the box from real candles and then deciding one candle at a time, with nothing later on the chart. This walkthrough uses NQ on Thursday 2025-06-12 (contract NQM5), a 15-minute range and one written rule: enter at the first 5-minute close outside it. The rule is for practice. It is not a claim about any result. - **Opening range**: The high and low of a fixed window after the open. This guide uses the first 15 minutes, three 5-minute candles. - **Breakout candle**: The first candle that closes above the range high or below the range low. ## From the range to a paper trade 1. **Start at 09:30.** Open an NQ replay on 2025-06-12 and jump to the 09:30 bar. Keep the timeframe on 5 minutes. (Screenshot: A 5-minute NQ chart ending at the 09:30 ET bar.) 2. **Let the range form.** Press Step until the clock reads 09:44. The 09:30, 09:35 and 09:40 candles are complete, which is the 15-minute range. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 09:44 ET with the three opening candles drawn.) 3. **Box the range.** Pick the box tool and draw it across the three candles, from the range high 21,884.50 down to the range low 21,818.50. (Screenshot: A box drawn across the three opening candles from 21,884.50 down to 21,818.50.) 4. **Step until a candle closes outside.** Press Step one candle at a time. The 09:45 candle closes at 21,886.50, above the range high, so under the written rule this is the entry candle. (Screenshot: The 5-minute chart at 09:49 ET with the 09:45 candle closing above the box.) 5. **Journal the call.** Choose Long, tag it orb and write the rule you applied: first 5-minute close outside the range, stop on the other side. Enter the entry before placing anything. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Long selected, the tag orb and a note describing the rule.) 6. **Place the paper trade.** Create the paper account once (here MNQ, a $50,000 balance and $0.50 commission per side), press Buy, then drag the stop out to the range low, 21,818.50, and the target up above the entry, here to 21,947.50. (Screenshot: The Trade tab with a long position, the stop line at 21,818.50 and the target line at 21,947.50.) 7. **Step until it closes.** Keep stepping. The Lab fills the stop or the target on the 1-minute bars. In this session the target was reached later in the morning; that is one trade on one day and says nothing about the rule. (Screenshot: The chart after the target filled, with the target mark above the last candle.) ## Make the rule yours Everything in the walkthrough is a choice you can change: a 5-minute, 15-minute or 30-minute range, a close or a touch as the trigger, a stop at the other side or at the middle, a target of one range or more. Write the version before you start, so the replay tests your discipline and not your memory. A gap through an order fills at the open, and if a stop and a target are touched in one bar the stop fills, so a replay is stricter than a drawing on a chart. > Write the rule first, then step. A rule you adjust after seeing the next candle is not being practised. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I mark an opening range in the Trade Lab? Step to the end of the window, then use the box tool from the first candle to the last, with the top at the range high and the bottom at the range low. ### How long should the opening range be? That is your rule. 5, 15 and 30 minutes are all in use. The Lab shows 5-minute candles or any timeframe you type, so any window can be used. ### Does the Lab know my strategy? No. It has no strategy settings. You apply your rule, and it fills your paper orders on the revealed 1-minute bars. ### Where do my paper fills happen? On 1-minute bars. A gap fills at the open, and a stop wins a same-bar tie with a target. ### How many days can I practise per day? Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I practise liquidity sweeps and fair value gaps on a replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-liquidity-sweeps-and-fair-value-gaps-on-a-replay **Mark a prior high with a ray, step until a candle takes it and closes back, box the three-candle gap that follows and journal each with a tag.** ## The short answer A replay lets you find these two shapes as they form, one candle at a time, and mark them before you know what comes next. The Trade Lab has the tools for it: horizontal rays, boxes and a journal with tags. This walkthrough uses NQ on Thursday 2025-08-07 (contract NQU5). It defines both terms in plain words and shows how to mark and log them. It does not say that either shape predicts anything. - **Liquidity sweep**: A candle whose wick trades beyond an earlier high or low and then closes back on the other side of it. This guide uses the overnight high. - **Fair value gap**: Three candles in a row where the first candle’s low is above the third candle’s high (a gap down), or the first’s high is below the third’s low (a gap up). The gap is the price range no candle traded across. ## Mark, step, log 1. **Mark the level first.** Jump to 09:30, switch to a 15-minute chart and draw a horizontal ray at the overnight high, 23,639.00. Marking it before the open means you are not choosing the level with hindsight. (Screenshot: A 15-minute NQ chart at 09:30 ET with a horizontal ray at the overnight high 23,639.00.) 2. **Step until a candle takes it.** Back on 5 minutes, step one candle at a time. At 09:44 the 09:40 candle has a wick above 23,639.00 and closes below it. That is the sweep, as defined above. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 09:44 ET with a candle whose wick crosses the ray and whose body closes below it.) 3. **Keep stepping until a gap forms.** Step on. By 10:14 the 10:00, 10:05 and 10:10 candles have formed a gap down: the 10:00 candle’s low is 23,628.50 and the 10:10 candle’s high is 23,614.50. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 10:14 ET after the three candles of the gap have completed.) 4. **Box the gap.** Pick the box tool and draw it across the three candles, from 23,628.50 down to 23,614.50. The box shows where price did not trade. (Screenshot: A small box over three candles from 23,628.50 to 23,614.50, below the overnight-high ray.) 5. **Journal both with tags.** Choose Wait, add the tags sweep and fvg, and write what you saw. Saving also stores your drawings as they are at that moment. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Wait selected, the tags sweep and fvg and a note.) 6. **Step on and review.** Step ahead and look at what followed, then compare it with your entry. Here twelve more candles reach 11:14. (Screenshot: The 5-minute NQ chart at 11:14 ET with the ray and the box drawn earlier.) ## Why journal each one One sweep or gap tells you nothing. A set of them, logged the same way, lets you look back at how many you saw, which ones you marked early and what you did. Tags make that list easy to filter later. Be strict with the definition. A wick that does not close back, or a gap that one candle’s wick fills, is a different shape. Deciding that before you start keeps the sample honest. > Define the shape in writing, mark it before the outcome, and log every instance, including the ones you skipped. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### What is a liquidity sweep in simple terms? A candle that pokes past an earlier high or low and then closes back inside. The wick takes the level, the close gives it back. ### What is a fair value gap? Three candles where the first candle’s range and the third candle’s range do not overlap, leaving a gap between them. Many traders box that gap. ### Do sweeps and gaps predict direction? This guide makes no such claim. It shows how to mark and log them so you can study your own sample. ### Which Lab tools do I need? A horizontal ray for the level, a box for the gap and the journal’s tags. All three are in the Trade Lab. ### Can I mark the same shapes on ES or gold? Yes. The tools are the same on NQ, ES and GC. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I practise for a prop-firm evaluation with replay? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-for-a-prop-firm-evaluation-with-replay **Set a paper account of the evaluation’s size in micros, write your risk rules first, trade a session by them and journal whether you kept them.** ## The short answer Evaluations are mostly about following a rule set under pressure. A replay can rehearse the habits: a fixed size, a stop on every trade, a limit on losses. It cannot rehearse a firm’s own rules for you, because the Trade Lab applies none of them. This walkthrough uses NQ on Wednesday 2025-06-11 (contract NQM5) with a $50,000 paper account in MNQ. Read the rules of the programme you plan to join, then write the ones that matter into your journal. Our explainers on trailing drawdown and the daily loss limit cover how such rules are usually built. - **Evaluation**: A paid test of a trading account against a rule set, with a drawdown limit and often a daily loss limit. - **Micro contract**: A contract with a fraction of the full size. MNQ is $2 a point; NQ is $20 a point. ## Rehearse the habits 1. **Match the account.** Open a replay and make the paper account once: a $50,000 starting balance, the MNQ contract and a commission per side. These lock for the run, so choose them as you would for the real account. (Screenshot: The Trade tab account form with a $50,000 balance, the MNQ contract at $2 per point and a commission of 0.5.) 2. **Write the rules first.** In the Journal, write today’s rules before the first trade: here one contract, a 20-point stop, a 40-point target and a stop for the day after two losing trades. Tag it rules and enter it. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Wait selected, the tag rules and a note listing the day’s rules.) 3. **Trade by the rules.** Place the order and drag the stop 20 points under the entry and the target 40 points above it. The R:R tile reads 1 : 2.00, which confirms the sizes. (Screenshot: The Trade tab with an open long, a stop line 20 points below and a target line 40 points above the entry.) 4. **Journal whether you kept them.** When the trade closes, choose No trade for the rest of the session, add the tag rules kept or rules broken, and write the truth. Honest tags are what make the log useful. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with No trade selected, the tag rules kept and a note ending the day.) ## What a replay cannot show The Lab has no drawdown limit, no daily loss limit and no consistency rule. Your paper balance simply moves. You track the limits yourself, with the numbers from your own programme, or you note in the journal when a limit would have been hit. It also cannot copy the pressure of a funded account. What it can do is make the routine automatic: size, stop, target, stop for the day. Many people repeat the same session type on many different dates until the routine is boring. Read each programme’s own rules before you pay for it. They differ, and they change. > A replay trains your habits, not the firm’s rules: write your own limits into the journal and keep to them. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Can I practise for a prop firm evaluation on a replay? You can rehearse the habits: fixed size, stops, a daily limit. The Trade Lab does not apply any firm’s rules, so you track them yourself. ### Does the Lab track a trailing drawdown? No. It shows equity and a maximum drawdown figure for closed trades, but it does not enforce any limit. ### Which contract should I use for a $50,000 paper account? That depends on your risk rules. The Lab offers MNQ at $2 a point and NQ at $20 a point on an NQ run, and the account locks for the run. ### Is the paper account the same as a funded account? No. Orders fill on 1-minute bars, there is no live data and no real order is placed. ### How many sessions can I practise a day? Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I practise the London and New York sessions on gold futures (GC)? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/gold-futures-gc-replay-london-and-new-york-sessions **Start a GC replay, jump from the Asia start to London 03:00 and New York 09:30 ET, mark each session’s range and pick the GC or MGC contract.** ## The short answer Gold futures (GC, on COMEX) trade nearly around the clock, and a replay cuts the day into the three starts the Lab uses: Asia 18:00, London 03:00 and New York 09:30, all Eastern. The same Next session and Next 09:30 buttons work on GC as on NQ and ES. This walkthrough uses GC on Tuesday 2025-06-10 (contract GCQ5). Prices are raw and not back-adjusted, and the front-month contract is shown. - **GC and MGC**: GC is the full gold contract at $100 a point. MGC is the micro at $10 a point. The Lab’s tick is 0.10. - **Session start**: Asia 18:00, London 03:00 and New York 09:30, in Eastern time. ## From Asia to New York 1. **Open the replay on GC.** Start a GC replay on 2025-06-10. It opens at the session start, 18:00 Eastern, with the top line showing the GCQ5 contract. (Screenshot: A GC replay at its 18:00 ET session start with the contract GCQ5 in the top line.) 2. **Jump to London.** Press Next session. The button names the next start, here London 03:00, and asks you to confirm the reveal. (Screenshot: The confirm bar reading Reveal bars up to London 03:00 ET with Reveal and Cancel buttons.) 3. **Step through the London hours.** After Reveal, step the 5-minute candles one at a time. After twelve steps the clock reads 03:54, and the high and low of the last 13 candles can be marked with two horizontal rays, 3,352.9 and 3,344.3. (Screenshot: A 5-minute GC chart at 03:54 ET with horizontal rays at 3,352.9 and 3,344.3.) 4. **Jump to New York.** Press Next 09:30. The confirm bar names the next 09:30 Eastern bar. Confirm it to reveal the rest of London and open New York. (Screenshot: The confirm bar reading Reveal bars up to the next 09:30 ET bar, at the 03:54 ET London position.) 5. **Read the open.** The top line now reads 09:30 ET. Compare where New York opens with the rays you drew in London, then step on as you did on NQ. (Screenshot: The 5-minute GC chart ending at 09:30 ET.) 6. **Pick the right contract.** In the Trade tab, a GC run offers GC or MGC. The paper account locks for the run, so choose the contract that fits the risk you want to practise: here MGC at $10 a point. (Screenshot: The Trade tab account form with the MGC contract at $10 per point selected.) ## What changes on gold Gold has its own rhythm in each session, so practise each one on its own dates. Because a run is saved, you can start a run at London on one day, journal it, and start another at New York on a different day. The split chart is for NQ and ES only; GC has no companion. Orders, stops and the journal behave exactly as on the index markets, and fills are modelled on 1-minute bars. > On gold, practise one session at a time: mark the range, jump to the next start and compare. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### Can I replay gold futures for free? Yes. The Trade Lab replays GC (COMEX gold) bar by bar with a free account and a verified email. ### What are the London and New York sessions in the Lab? London starts at 03:00 Eastern and New York at 09:30. Asia starts at 18:00. The Next session button jumps to the next of the three. ### What is the difference between GC and MGC? GC is $100 a point and MGC is $10 a point. A GC run offers both in the Trade tab. ### Does the Lab use forex gold (XAUUSD)? No. It replays CME Group futures only: GC on COMEX, plus NQ and ES. ### Is there a split chart for gold? No. The split chart pairs NQ and ES only. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # How do I manually backtest 100 trades on NQ without coding? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-manually-backtest-100-trades-on-nq-without-coding **Write one rule, take each trade as a paper trade with a stop and target, journal it with a tag, jump to the next session and read the totals.** ## The short answer A manual backtest is a long run of replay trades taken by one written rule, each logged the same way. The Trade Lab keeps the trades, the journal and the totals, so there is no code and no spreadsheet to build. What it asks of you is time: each trade is a decision you make yourself. This walkthrough shows the method on NQ, Tuesday 2025-06-17 (contract NQM5), for the first trade. Repeat it for each of the hundred on different sessions. - **Setup**: The single, written condition that tells you to enter. Without one, the hundred trades cannot be compared. - **Closed trade**: A paper trade that has been exited, by its stop, its target or a flatten. Only closed trades count in the totals. ## The method for trade one 1. **Write the rule before the first trade.** In the Journal, write the setup, the entry, the stop, the target and the size. Tag it with the setup’s name and enter it. Nothing here changes for the next 99 trades. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Wait selected, the tag setup A and a note describing the entry, stop and target.) 2. **Take the trade with its stop and target.** Create the paper account once, then place the order and drag the stop and target out to the distances in your rule: here 20 and 40 points. (Screenshot: The Trade tab with an open long and its stop and target lines placed 20 and 40 points from the entry.) 3. **Journal each trade the same way.** When it closes, enter a journal entry with the decision and the same tag. Number the trades in the note, so trade 37 of 100 is easy to find. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Long selected, the tag setup A and a note reading Trade 1 of 100.) 4. **Jump to the next session.** Press Next session to reach the next start and confirm the reveal. Every trade needs its own look at the chart, so skipping ahead is how you collect samples from different days. (Screenshot: The confirm bar reading Reveal bars up to Asia 18:00 ET with Reveal and Cancel buttons.) ## Keep it a fair sample Take every instance of the setup you see, including the ones you would rather skip. Log the ones you passed with No trade and a reason. Spread the run across many dates and both quiet and fast days. Plan the time. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and a hundred trades usually takes several days of replay. A run is saved, so you continue where you left off. > A hundred trades by one written rule, logged the same way, is a sample. A hundred trades by feel is not. ## Read the totals The Lab page gains a Your backtesting section for every run that has a closed trade. It shows the trade count, win rate, net after commission, average trade in R, profit factor and maximum drawdown, with an equity curve and breakdowns. Our guide on reading your stats walks through each tile. Read them as a description of your sample, not a promise. A hundred trades from one setup on one market can still lean on a few unusual weeks, so look at how the results spread across dates before you trust the totals. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### How do I backtest a strategy manually without coding? Write one rule, replay history one candle at a time, take each trade as a paper trade with a stop and target and journal it. The Lab keeps the totals. ### How many trades does a manual backtest need? There is no fixed number. A hundred is a common target, and a larger sample says more than a smaller one. Our explainer on sample size covers it. ### Where do I see my stats? On the Lab page, under Your backtesting, once a run has a closed paper trade. ### Can I hand the rule to someone to test it for me? Yes. A paid version tests an exact rule on the full history. Every version is $19. ### Why not code it? You can, in other tools. A manual run suits rules that are about judgement, and it is free in the Lab. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # What is bar replay, and why does forward-only replay matter? Updated 2026-10-24. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-bar-replay-and-why-forward-only-matters **Bar replay shows past price one candle at a time with later candles hidden; forward-only replay keeps look-ahead out of what you practise.** ## The short answer Bar replay is a way to practise on history as if it were live: the chart ends at a chosen moment, and you reveal later candles only by stepping. Forward-only replay adds one more rule: you cannot move backward, so a decision you have seen the result of cannot be redone. The point is to avoid look-ahead, which means using information you would not have had at the time. This walkthrough uses ES on Tuesday 2025-06-10 (contract ESM5) in the Trade Lab. - **Bar replay**: A tool that plays past data one bar at a time, hiding the bars after the current one. - **Look-ahead**: Using a later price, or a chart that already contains it, to judge an earlier decision. ## See it work 1. **The chart ends at the cursor.** A new replay shows history up to the current candle and nothing after it. The top line gives the session, the Eastern time and the last price. (Screenshot: A 5-minute ES chart that ends at the 09:50 ET cursor with empty space to the right.) 2. **Try to look ahead.** Drag the chart to the left to look for the future. There is nothing to find: the server never sends a bar later than the current one, so the space to the right stays empty. (Screenshot: The same ES chart dragged left so the candles sit on the left side, with no candles to their right.) 3. **Decide before you step.** Write the decision in the journal, here Long, before you press Step. The server stamps the time and the last close on the entry. (Screenshot: The Journal tab with Long selected and a note written before the next candle.) 4. **Step, then compare.** Press Step. The entry is now locked, so you cannot improve it with what you have just seen. Your next thought goes in a follow-up entry. (Screenshot: The Journal tab showing entry 1, a Long at 09:50 ET, marked Locked.) ## Why forward-only matters A normal chart shows everything. It is easy to look at it, see where price went and call it obvious. A replay that cannot go backward removes that option. Every decision is made on the information of its own moment. It also matters for testing. A rule judged on a chart that shows the outcome tends to look better than it would live, which is the same error as look-ahead bias in code. Forward-only replay is the manual version of avoiding it. Jumps ask you to confirm because they reveal many candles at once and cannot be taken back. Pressing Step or a jump also pauses Play, so the pace stays yours. > Forward-only replay keeps the decision honest: you commit to what you can see, then you step. ## What the Trade Lab does not do The Trade Lab replays history. It has no live data, and no real order is ever placed. Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate real fills. Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day, and it needs a verified email. The Lab itself is free. All Trade Lab guides: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay Want a strategy tested on the full history instead of by hand? Every version is $19. ## Questions and answers ### What is bar replay? A tool that shows historical price one bar at a time, with the bars after the current one hidden, so you can practise decisions as if live. ### What is look-ahead bias? Judging a decision with information from after it was made, such as a chart that already shows the outcome. ### Can I rewind in the Trade Lab? No. A replay only moves forward. You can start a new run on the same date and begin again. ### Is a replay the same as a backtest? No. A backtest runs a rule over many trades at once. A replay is you deciding one candle at a time. Our explainer compares them. ### Can I see data from after the cursor with a tool or a trick? No. The bars after the cursor are not sent to the browser at all. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. --- # Nitro Trades CRT backtest on NQ futures: 2,071 first-setup trades on the 15-minute chart, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-18. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/nitro-crt-ny-session-nq ## Summary The first CRT setup of the New York session, as described by @nitrotrades, tested on NQ futures from 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07 before costs: on 15-minute candles it took 2,071 trades, won 32.1% and averaged −0.186R (95% interval −0.236 to −0.136). Adding his trend filter and a 1-hour target gave win rates of 31.2% to 35.5% and averages from −0.102R to +0.001R across six cells. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested @nitrotrades (Nitro Trades), in a reel posted 2026-06-07. The first CRT of the New York session that goes with the trend will print. The target is the 1-hour CRT high at 1.5 risk to reward. No win rate is spoken; the on-screen title reads “Insanely High Winrate”. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. C1 is the previous candle, on 15-minute, 30-minute or 1-hour candles, each run separately. 2. C2 sweeps exactly one C1 extreme and closes strictly back inside the C1 range, and C1 and C2 have opposite colours. 3. Entry: a stop order at C2’s opposite extreme, live during C3 only. 4. Stop: sized so the target is exactly 1.5R. Trades with a stop under 4.00 points are skipped. 5. Exit: target, stop, or flat at 16:00 ET. 6. FIRST: the first such trade of the day whose C1 opens at or after 09:30 ET and that fills. With a trend label, the first one that goes with the trend. 7. Trend labels: T1 is the last two completed 1-hour candles before C1’s open closing higher highs and higher lows (up) or lower lows and lower highs (down). T2 is C2’s close against the 09:30 open. 8. Targets: OWN is C1’s unswept extreme. 1H is the last completed 1-hour candle’s extreme, used with 15-minute and 30-minute candles. 9. Control: the same bracket on every C1 and C2 pair, with no sweep or close-back-inside needed. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - On the minute an order fills, whether that minute’s own stop or target counts is a choice. Mode A is pessimistic, mode B is realistic and mode C is optimistic. Mode B is the headline for the trend cells. - Candles are clock-aligned. The break-even win rate at a 1.5R target is 40.0%. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute continuous data, ET - Date range: 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07 - Sample size: First-setup trades: 2,071 on 15-minute candles, 1,651 on 30-minute and 900 on 1-hour candles - Costs: Gross R. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: In-sample, one pass, nothing fitted. ## Results First setup of the day, no trend filter, by fill-minute scoring mode | Candle size | Trades | Win rate (mode A) | Average R, mode A (95% interval) | Average R, mode B | Average R, mode C | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 15 minutes | 2,071 | 32.1% | −0.186 (−0.236 to −0.136) | −0.080 (−0.131 to −0.029) | +0.012 (−0.041 to +0.064) | | 30 minutes | 1,651 | 30.3% | −0.181 (−0.236 to −0.125) | −0.114 | −0.060 | | 1 hour | 900 | 28.1% | −0.147 (−0.220 to −0.074) | −0.097 | −0.064 | His full rules: with the trend (and the 1-hour target for 15- and 30-minute candles), first setup, mode B | Cell | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Control average R | CRT minus control (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 15 minutes, trend T1 | 1,536 | 33.1% | −0.046 (−0.103 to +0.013) | −0.032 | −0.014 (−0.055 to +0.027) | | 15 minutes, trend T2 | 1,595 | 34.3% | −0.051 (−0.110 to +0.007) | −0.059 | +0.008 (−0.033 to +0.048) | | 30 minutes, trend T1 | 913 | 31.2% | −0.102 (−0.176 to −0.026) | −0.080 | −0.022 (−0.069 to +0.025) | | 30 minutes, trend T2 | 969 | 35.5% | −0.038 (−0.112 to +0.039) | −0.031 | −0.006 (−0.054 to +0.040) | | 1 hour, trend T1 | 383 | 34.7% | +0.001 (−0.113 to +0.118) | −0.051 | +0.052 (−0.015 to +0.119) | | 1 hour, trend T2 | 404 | 34.2% | −0.063 (−0.175 to +0.054) | −0.087 | +0.025 (−0.040 to +0.087) | - Across all 20 first-setup cells with trend labels, none was clearly positive under modes A, B or C; 10 were clearly negative under mode B; the CRT minus control difference included zero in 20 of 20. - The highest average of the 20 cells was the 1-hour, trend T1 cell at +0.001R. - The 50 most recent first setups in the 15-minute, T1, 1-hour target cell (2026-06-11 to 2026-10-07): 12 hit the target (+1.5R), 30 stopped out (−1R) and 8 closed at 16:00 between −0.63R and +0.89R, for −10.63R gross. The same cell over all history was 509 wins in 1,536 trades (33.1%), −70.7R gross. - The 70 most recent first setups in the same cell (2026-04-21 to 2026-10-07): 20 hit the target, 38 stopped out and 12 closed at 16:00, for −6.25R gross. The sample size was raised from 50 to 70 after the 50-trade sample was seen; both are negative. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was the Nitro Trades CRT strategy backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07, for 15-minute, 30-minute and 1-hour candles. C2 must sweep one side of C1 and close back inside, with the opposite colour; a stop order at C2’s opposite extreme enters during C3, with a 1.5R target. Only the first such trade of the New York session each day is taken. ### What sample size was used for the CRT test? 2,071 first-setup trades on 15-minute candles, 1,651 on 30-minute candles and 900 on 1-hour candles. With the trend filter and 1-hour target the cells ranged from 383 to 1,595 trades. ### What win rate did the first CRT of the New York session have? On 15-minute candles with no trend filter it won 32.1% of 2,071 trades under the pessimistic scoring mode. The break-even win rate at a 1.5R target is 40.0%. ### Did the trend filter change the CRT results? Win rates were 31.2% to 35.5% and average R ranged from −0.102 to +0.001 across six trend cells, before costs. In all six, the difference from the control bracket included zero. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # JJ Simon fair price strategy backtest on NQ futures: 7,112 trades, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-16. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/jj-simon-fair-price-nq ## Summary JJ Simon’s 09:30 fair price strategy, tested on NQ futures from 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07 before costs, took 7,112 trades with a 40.2% win rate, +0.0104R average and +73.99R in total. Run through $50,000 evaluation rules with $15 per contract in commission and slippage, 4.5% of evaluations produced any payout; over forty evaluations a year, seven of nine years paid nothing. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested JJ Simon, in his video “The EXACT Trading Strategy That Made Me $1,200,000 in the Last 12 Months” (2026-03-28). He says the strategy produced $1.2 million in prop firm payouts in 12 months, that he spent about $200,000 to $250,000 on evaluations, and that he runs 40 accounts and copy trades five at once. He also says the strategy only suits prop firm evaluations and that on a live account it would probably break even. Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L8xdh3oPm4 ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Fair price: the 09:30 ET open, or the 08:30 ET open if the 08:30 one-minute candle’s range is at least 3 times the median one-minute range from 07:30 to 08:29. 2. Candle one: the 09:30 one-minute candle. Its colour sets the side. 3. Continuation trades (09:31–09:40): a fast change in state of delivery (CISD, trigger range above 1.0 × the 14-bar ATR) in candle one’s direction. 4. Reversion trades (09:41–11:00): a fast CISD toward the fair price, where the signal candle does not contain the fair price. 5. Entry: the next one-minute open. 6. Stop 25 points and target 38 points, scaled by price: entry divided by 24,895.25. The break-even win rate at 1 to 1.52 is 39.7%. 7. At most 4 trades a day, no more trades after 2 losses, one position at a time, flat at 16:00 ET. 8. Only the 09:30 open was tested. He says he trades six session opens a day. 9. Evaluation simulation: a $50,000 account, +$3,000 profit target, $2,000 end-of-day trailing loss limit, 21-day cap, $500 risked per R in the evaluation and $250 per R when funded, with the funded-account payout rules used in earlier evaluation runs. Real rolling starts on every trade day. 10. Arms: A all of his trades; B his first trade of each day; C a coin flip on his entries; D a coin flip on the first trade of the day; E an independent zero-advantage sequence at exactly the break-even win rate (39.68%); F an independent sequence at 40.2%. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - A bar that touches both the stop and the target is scored as a loss. - The evaluation fee in the spend ratio is a parameter ($100 evaluation plus $130 activation), not a quoted price. - Costs: $15 per NQ contract per trade, from $5 commission round turn plus 1 tick of slippage per side. - The 40-evaluation setup runs five accounts at once and re-buys on a fail; yearly figures are the mean of 2017–2025. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute continuous data, bar-open labels in ET - Date range: 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07 - Sample size: 7,112 trades: 2,955 continuation and 4,157 reversion - Costs: The backtest table is gross: no cost is subtracted. The costed evaluation tables subtract $15 per NQ contract per trade, which is $5 commission round turn plus 1 tick ($5) of slippage per side. Contracts per trade are the larger of 1 and the whole number of $20-per-point NQ contracts that fit the risk ($500 in the evaluation, $250 when funded) divided by the stop in points. The cost is taken from each trade before the day is summed. - In-sample or out-of-sample: All in-sample: no holdout was reserved. ## Results Backtest of the 09:30 rules, gross | Trade type | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Total R | Max drawdown (R) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Continuation | 2,955 | 41.9% | +0.0533 (+0.0089 to +0.0976) | +157.53 | 46.41 | | Reversion | 4,157 | 38.9% | −0.0201 (−0.0559 to +0.0153) | −83.54 | 125.89 | | All | 7,112 | 40.2% | +0.0104 (−0.0173 to +0.0386) | +73.99 | 124.51 | Cumulative R at each year end, all trades, gross | Year | Cumulative R | |---|---| | 2016 | 33.24 | | 2017 | 27.78 | | 2018 | 40.62 | | 2019 | 82.54 | | 2020 | 72.61 | | 2021 | 20.75 | | 2022 | −15.29 | | 2023 | 53.92 | | 2024 | 79.66 | | 2025 | 112.84 | | 2026 | 73.99 | Simulated $50,000 evaluations, gross (5%–95% bands for the random arms) | Arm | Evaluations passed | Evaluations with any payout | Expected payout per evaluation | Passed evaluations that later lost the funded account | |---|---|---|---|---| | A: all of his trades | 31.3% | 11.4% | $368 | 95.9% | | B: his first trade each day | 28.6% | 15.2% | $555 | 83.4% | | C: coin flip on his entries | 28.4% (24.4 to 32.1) | 8.4% (5.1 to 11.4) | $201 ($73 to $446) | 99.2% | | E: zero-advantage sequence | 28.3% (24.1 to 32.6) | 8.3% (4.8 to 12.3) | $215 ($77 to $496) | 98.8% | Simulated $50,000 evaluations with $15 per NQ contract per trade | Arm | Evaluations passed | Evaluations with any payout | Expected payout per evaluation | |---|---|---|---| | A: all of his trades | 21.6% | 4.5% | $77 | | B: his first trade each day | 19.6% | 8.8% | $245 | | C: coin flip on his entries | 19.6% | 2.9% | $40 | | D: coin flip, first trade each day | 17.0% | 3.3% | $61 | | E: zero-advantage sequence | 20.6% | 3.2% | $45 | His setup: 40 evaluations a year, 5 live at a time, re-buying on a fail (mean of 2017–2025) | Costs and arm | Evaluations a year | Payouts a year | Years with $0 paid | Payout dollars per $1 spent on evaluations | |---|---|---|---|---| | Gross, A: all of his trades | 36.1 | $12,217 | 55.6% | 2.60 | | Gross, E: zero-advantage sequence | 39.4 | $7,983 | 44.4% | 1.50 | | $15 per contract, A: all of his trades | 38.3 | $4,569 | 77.8% | 0.93 | | $15 per contract, B: first trade each day | 39.4 | $4,940 | 66.7% | 1.06 | | $15 per contract, E: zero-advantage sequence | 40.0 | $1,767 | 77.8% | 0.34 | - Average R per trade at $15 per contract: arm A went from +0.0104 gross to −0.049, and arm B from +0.052 to −0.009. - Arm A gross payouts by year: 2016 $17,000; 2017 $0; 2018 $4,000; 2019 $37,500; 2020 $0; 2021 $4,050; 2022 $0; 2023 $64,400; 2024 $0; 2025 $0; 2026 $0. - The per-evaluation payout distribution for arm A, gross: median $0, 90th percentile $970, 99th percentile $7,500, maximum $12,880. - Neither trade type was above zero in both halves (2016–2020 and 2021–2026). A trade in candle one’s own direction, without the CISD, averaged +0.0508R (+0.0188 to +0.0831). HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Video transcript JJ Simon says this strategy made him one point two million dollars on prop firms in one year. So I ran it on forty evaluations a year, five at a time, every New York open since twenty sixteen, with real commissions. Fewer than one in twenty evaluations ever paid out. Average payouts: about four and a half thousand dollars a year. And seven out of nine years paid nothing at all. One point two million, or four and a half thousand. You decide. ## Questions and answers ### How was the JJ Simon fair price strategy backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-06-01 to 2026-10-07, using only the 09:30 ET open. The first candle’s colour sets the side, continuation trades run 09:31–09:40 and reversion trades 09:41–11:00, with a 25-point stop and a 38-point target. ### What sample size was used? 7,112 trades, 2,955 continuation and 4,157 reversion, with a 40.2% win rate and +73.99R in total before costs. ### How often did the strategy pay out in simulated evaluations? Gross, 11.4% of simulated $50,000 evaluations produced any payout. With $15 per contract in commission and slippage it was 4.5%. ### How many years paid nothing in the 40-evaluation setup? With $15 per contract in commission and slippage, 77.8% of years (seven of nine, 2017–2025) paid $0, and payouts averaged $4,569 a year against 38.3 evaluations a year. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # CE 50% Model backtest on NQ futures: 2,625 trades, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-16. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ce-50-model-nq ## Summary The CE 50% Model, a pre-open range model on NQ futures, took 2,625 trades from 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27 with a 34.4% win rate and +0.141R average after $2.20 round-trip commission, with a net maximum drawdown of 34.2R. The rules were chosen on this same data; out-of-sample runs on ES, gold and earlier NQ gave +0.052R, −0.004R and +0.076R, each with an interval that included zero. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested CE Market Solutions. This is our own model, published with its rules, so there is no outside claim being checked. The 8:30–9:30 ET range split at its midpoint, with the side picked by the first 3-minute close after the open, stopped at the other side of the range and trailed under 15-minute swings. Source: https://cemarketsolutions.com/ce50 ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Range: the high (RH) and low (RL) of the 08:30–09:30 ET bars (twelve 5-minute bars). The midpoint is MID. 2. Signal: the close of the first 3-minute candle from 09:30 ET. A close above MID means long; a close below MID means short. 3. Entry: the next 1-minute open, so 09:33 ET for the 3-minute candle. 4. Initial stop: RL for a long, RH for a short. 5. Exit: the stop trails to each confirmed 15-minute three-bar fractal swing, never backwards, until the stop is hit or 16:00 ET. There is no profit target. 6. Signal timeframes tested: 1, 3, 5, 15 and 30 minutes. A second exit that holds to the stop or 16:00 ET with no trail was also run. 7. Both directions are traded. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - A trade stopped on its own entry bar is counted as a loss and kept: 49 of 2,625 (1.9%), all −1.00R. - A gap that opens beyond the stop fills at the open. - The 3-minute candle and the 15-minute trail were chosen from ten combinations (five timeframes, two exits) on the same data they are reported on. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute data - Date range: 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27 (the 3-minute model); out-of-sample tests below use other dates and markets - Sample size: 2,625 trades for the 3-minute model - Costs: The signal timeframe table is gross: no cost is subtracted. The net figures subtract a $2.20 round-turn commission per NQ contract (0.11 point), with no slippage. The compounding run subtracts $2.20 round turn per NQ contract, or $0.60 per MNQ contract, times the contracts in each trade, fills at the recorded entry and exit prices, with no slippage or size impact. - In-sample or out-of-sample: In-sample for NQ 2016–2026: the rule, the 15-minute trail and the 3-minute candle were all chosen on this data. Out-of-sample runs on ES, gold and NQ before 2016, and a live week, are listed separately. ## Results Signal candle timeframe, trailing exit, NQ 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27, gross | Signal candle | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Points per trade | Median stop (points) | Max drawdown | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 1 minute (entry 09:31) | 2,630 | 31.6% | +0.152 (+0.073 to +0.236) | +4.57 | 31 | not reported | | 3 minutes (entry 09:33) | 2,625 | 34.4% | +0.147 (+0.074 to +0.219) | +5.58 | 36 | 33.8R gross | | 5 minutes (entry 09:35) | 2,628 | 35.5% | +0.119 (+0.053 to +0.185) | +4.02 | 39 | not reported | | 15 minutes (entry 09:45) | 2,634 | not reported | +0.036 (−0.024 to +0.096) | not reported | not reported | not reported | | 30 minutes (entry 10:00) | 2,634 | not reported | +0.051 (−0.002 to +0.102) | not reported | not reported | not reported | The 3-minute model net of commission | Cost model | Trades | Average R (95% interval) | Points per trade | Max drawdown | Longest losing streak | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | NQ, $2.20 round turn (0.11 point) | 2,625 | +0.141 (+0.068 to +0.214) | +5.47 | 34.2R | 13 | | MNQ, $0.60 round turn | 2,625 | +0.132 (+0.065 to +0.209) | not reported | not reported | 13 | The 3-minute model by year, gross | Year | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Total R | Points per trade | Median stop (points) | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 2016 (June on) | 150 | 37% | +0.272 (−0.051 to +0.634) | +40.8 | +3.2 | 8 | | 2017 | 255 | 34% | +0.223 (−0.017 to +0.484) | +56.8 | +1.8 | 8 | | 2018 | 256 | 32% | +0.311 (+0.016 to +0.630) | +79.7 | +4.4 | 18 | | 2019 | 254 | 34% | +0.097 (−0.110 to +0.335) | +24.6 | +3.4 | 18 | | 2020 | 254 | 32% | +0.040 (−0.190 to +0.295) | +10.1 | +1.9 | 37 | | 2021 | 258 | 37% | +0.155 (−0.045 to +0.352) | +40.0 | +8.8 | 40 | | 2022 | 258 | 31% | +0.076 (−0.147 to +0.338) | +19.5 | −1.6 | 62 | | 2023 | 257 | 35% | +0.067 (−0.117 to +0.265) | +17.2 | +4.6 | 46 | | 2024 | 258 | 36% | +0.163 (−0.040 to +0.377) | +42.1 | +17.9 | 55 | | 2025 | 256 | 37% | +0.158 (−0.044 to +0.363) | +40.4 | +10.2 | 64 | | 2026 (to 08-27) | 169 | 33% | +0.084 (−0.190 to +0.400) | +14.1 | +5.8 | 92 | Out-of-sample runs of the frozen 3-minute model, net of commission | Test | Trades | Average R (95% interval) | First half and second half | |---|---|---|---| | ES, 2016-06 to 2026-08 | 2,594 | +0.052 (−0.020 to +0.120) | +0.124 and −0.006 | | Gold (GC), 2016-09 to 2026-09 | 2,551 | −0.004 (−0.055 to +0.045) | −0.078 and +0.050 | | NQ, 2010-06 to 2016-05 | 926 | +0.076 (−0.069 to +0.221) | −0.193 (221 trades) and +0.160 (−0.008 to +0.339; 705 trades) | $50,000 compounded at quarter Kelly (1.67% of equity at risk per trade), NQ and MNQ contracts, commission included | Measure | Value | |---|---| | Ending equity | $5,902,867 (118.06 times the start) | | Compound annual growth rate | 59.37% | | Maximum drawdown | 45.03% (trough 2019-06-06) | | Lowest equity | $45,386 on 2016-06-24 | | Longest drawdown | 444 days, 2020-10-05 to 2021-12-23 (depth 43.5%) | | Lowest and highest calendar year | 2020 (+3.2%) and 2018 (+187.4%) | | Total commission paid | $159,838 | Live week, 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16, one MNQ contract, not part of the 2016–2026 sample | Day | Side | R gross | R net of $0.60 | Points gross | |---|---|---|---|---| | Mon 10-12 | Short | +0.2456 | +0.2433 | +31.50 | | Tue 10-13 | Short | −1.0000 | −1.0033 | −92.00 | | Wed 10-14 | Short | +0.7892 | +0.7882 | +244.25 | | Thu 10-15 | Short | −1.0000 | −1.0024 | −126.00 | | Fri 10-16 | Short | +5.5218 | +5.5192 | +632.25 | | Week | 5 trades | +4.5566 | +4.5451 | +690.00 | - Forward log of the frozen model, 2026-08-28 to 2026-10-07: 29 trades, 44.8% win rate, +0.548R average net (−0.238 to +1.585), +15.9R cumulative, 4.0R maximum drawdown. The 2026-09-21 long was +11.94R, 75% of the total. - With one fixed NQ contract, 2022 was −446 points net. R and points disagree in a year when small-stop days win and large-stop days lose. - In the live week, Friday carried the whole week: without it the four earlier trades were −0.9652R gross. - Figures shown in the video version of this test: 34.4% win rate, 2,625 trades, +370.9R net cumulative, and 1,723 of 2,625 trades at or below 0R net (65.6%). HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Video transcript This is my own NQ model, and I’m giving it to you for free. Mark the high and low from eight thirty to nine thirty, and split it at fifty percent. If the first three minute candle after the nine thirty open closes above it, buy the next open. Below, sell it. Stop goes on the other side of the range, then trails down to every swing high made on the fifteen minute until four EST. This day it held to the close for fifteen R. Over ten years, most trades lost small, and the trend days paid for them. From twenty sixteen to twenty twenty six, with commissions included, it returned over fifty nine percent a year, compounded. Comment CE fifty and I’ll send it to you. ## Questions and answers ### How was the CE 50% Model backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27. The 08:30–09:30 ET range is split at its midpoint, the first 3-minute close after 09:30 picks long or short, the stop is the other side of the range, and the stop trails under confirmed 15-minute swings until 16:00 ET. ### What sample size was used for the CE 50% Model? 2,625 trades for the 3-minute model over 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27, with 34.4% winning. Out-of-sample runs used 2,594 trades on ES, 2,551 on gold and 926 on NQ from 2010 to 2016. ### Is the CE 50% Model result in-sample or out-of-sample? The NQ 2016–2026 result is in-sample, because the rule, the trail and the 3-minute candle were chosen on that data. The out-of-sample averages were +0.052R on ES, −0.004R on gold and +0.076R on NQ 2010–2016, each with an interval that included zero. ### What did the CE 50% Model return after costs? After $2.20 round-turn NQ commission the 3-minute model averaged +0.141R per trade. Compounded at quarter Kelly with commissions, $50,000 became $5,902,867 with a 45.03% maximum drawdown, using sizing fitted on the same data. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Kasen Kennedy 8:00 ET opening range retest backtest on NQ futures: 500 trades, 2020–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-12. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/kasen-orb-retest-nq ## Summary Kasen Kennedy’s 8:00 ET 15-minute range breakout with a retest entry after the 09:30 open, tested on 1,713 NQ futures days from 2020-01-02 to 2026-08-17, before costs: 885 days broke both ways and 500 trades filled at the base depth, winning 27.4% with an average of −0.350R. A $50,000 account risking $1,000 a trade reached zero after 129 trades, and one risking 3% of equity fell 90% after 206 trades. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested Kasen Kennedy (Instagram @kasen.nq). His strategy has paid out seven figures. The strategy as shown: mark the 8:00 ET 15-minute candle, wait for price to close outside it, and after the 09:30 open enter on the retest of the break, with the stop on the other side of the range and the target at the last swing. Source: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DblUaLYujQX/ ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Range: the high and low of the 08:00–08:15 ET 15-minute candle. 2. Day type: a clean long is a first close above the range high that is still above it at the 09:30 open. A clean short is the mirror. A day that breaks both ways before 09:30 is chop and is not traded. A day that never leaves the range is no break. 3. Entry: a limit order at a chosen depth back into the range from the broken side. Depth 0% is the broken range boundary itself; the depths tested are 0%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%. Fills are taken from 09:30 to 10:29 ET. 4. Stop: the opposite boundary of the 8:00 range. 5. Target: the last swing extreme formed between the break and 09:30, measured on closes. A second version measures it on the highest 1-minute high (long) or lowest 1-minute low (short). 6. Exit: target, stop, or flat at 16:00 ET. A bar that touches both the stop and the target is scored as a loss. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - At 100% depth the limit price equals the stop price, so every fill is an instant loss by construction. Those two rows are listed for completeness. - Fills assume the full order is filled at the limit price, with no slippage and no partial fills. - The 09:30 classification uses the 09:30 bar’s open only, not its close. - Dollar paths use MNQ contracts: floor(risk dollars ÷ (stop points × $2)), at least 1, with $0.60 round-turn commission per contract. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute continuous data from Databento; dollar paths in MNQ - Date range: 2020-01-02 to 2026-08-17 - Sample size: 1,713 trading days: 885 chop (51.7%), 401 clean long, 396 clean short, 19 no break, 12 excluded for data gaps. 500 trades filled at 0% depth (244 long, 256 short). - Costs: R figures are gross: no cost is subtracted. The dollar account paths subtract a $0.60 round-turn commission per MNQ contract, and nothing for slippage (fills are at the limit price). Contracts per trade are the larger of 1 and the whole number of $2-per-point MNQ contracts that fit the risk divided by the stop in points. - In-sample or out-of-sample: All figures are in-sample: the whole history, one pass, nothing fitted. ## Results Clean-day trades by direction and limit depth (close-based swing target), gross | Direction and depth | Trades | Win rate (target hit) | Fill rate | Average R (95% interval) | Total R | Max drawdown | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Long, 0% depth | 244 | 27.0% | 60.8% | −0.358 (−0.496 to −0.208) | not reported | not reported | | Long, 10% depth | 239 | 23.4% | 59.6% | −0.391 (−0.536 to −0.236) | not reported | not reported | | Long, 25% depth | 227 | 20.3% | 56.6% | −0.356 (−0.533 to −0.177) | not reported | not reported | | Long, 50% depth | 214 | 11.7% | 53.4% | −0.330 (−0.588 to −0.056) | not reported | not reported | | Long, 75% depth | 197 | 5.6% | 49.1% | −0.434 (−0.750 to −0.048) | not reported | not reported | | Long, 100% depth | 181 | 0.0% | 45.1% | −1.000 (−1.000 to −1.000) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 0% depth | 256 | 27.7% | 64.6% | −0.344 (−0.477 to −0.193) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 10% depth | 249 | 25.3% | 62.9% | −0.326 (−0.483 to −0.171) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 25% depth | 241 | 22.8% | 60.9% | −0.259 (−0.435 to −0.071) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 50% depth | 221 | 12.2% | 55.8% | −0.441 (−0.640 to −0.218) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 75% depth | 196 | 3.6% | 49.5% | −0.693 (−0.899 to −0.448) | not reported | not reported | | Short, 100% depth | 179 | 0.0% | 45.2% | −1.000 (−1.000 to −1.000) | not reported | not reported | Target on the wick (highest high or lowest low), 0% depth, gross | Direction | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Average R with the close-based target | |---|---|---|---|---| | Long | 244 | 25.0% | −0.352 (−0.502 to −0.186) | −0.358 (−0.496 to −0.208) | | Short | 256 | 25.0% | −0.383 (−0.522 to −0.229) | −0.344 (−0.477 to −0.193) | | Both | 500 | 25.0% (125 wins) | −0.368 (−0.468 to −0.267) | −0.350 | $50,000 account paths on the 500 trades at 0% depth, with commission | Sizing and target | Trades | Win rate | Result | Max drawdown | |---|---|---|---|---| | Fixed $1,000 risk per trade, close-based target | 129 trades to zero (first trade 2020-01-06, zero on 2021-08-16, 588 days) | 27.1% (35 of 129) | Equity never exceeded the $50,000 start. $2,528.40 paid in commission. Continued through all 500 trades, equity ended at −$128,001.40. | not reported | | 3% of current equity per trade, wick target | 206 trades to −90% (equity ≤ $5,000 on 2022-06-20, 896 days after the first trade) | 25.7% (53 of 206) | Peak equity $50,067.80 on 2020-01-07. | −92.67% ($50,067.80 to $3,668.00, trough 2023-03-10) | - Each account path is one ordering of the same 500 trades from one start date. It is not a distribution of outcomes. - In the fixed-risk path the smallest stop was 3.0 points and the median stop was 21 points; sizing reached up to 166 MNQ contracts, with a mean of 24.9. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Video transcript Kasen Kennedy says his strategy has paid out seven figures. Mark the eight o’clock fifteen minute candle, and wait for price to close outside it. After the nine thirty open, enter on the retest of the break. Stop on the other side of the range. Target the last swing. So I ran it on every day since twenty twenty. More than half the days break both ways and never give you a setup. And the ones that do win less than one in three. A fifty thousand dollar account, risking three percent a trade, with commissions, was down ninety percent in twenty nine months. Before you pay for anyone’s strategy, comment test and I’ll backtest yours free, every trade, ten years of data. ## Questions and answers ### How was Kasen Kennedy’s opening range strategy backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2020-01-02 to 2026-08-17. The range is the 08:00–08:15 ET candle. On days that break one way and are still outside the range at 09:30, a limit order at a set depth is live from 09:30 to 10:29 ET, with the stop at the opposite side of the range and the target at the last swing. ### What sample size was used for the Kasen ORB test? 1,713 trading days: 885 broke both ways before 09:30, 401 were clean long days and 396 were clean short days. 500 trades filled at the 0% depth. ### What win rate did the 8:00 ET range retest have on NQ? At the 0% depth, 27.0% of 244 long trades and 27.7% of 256 short trades hit the target, with average results of −0.358R and −0.344R before costs. ### What happened to a $50,000 account trading the Kasen ORB? Risking $1,000 a trade with commission, the account reached zero after 129 trades. Risking 3% of equity with a wick target, it fell 90% after 206 trades, 896 days after the first trade. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # ORB Scalper 1.1 opening range strategy backtest on NQ futures: 3,601 trades, 2016–2025 Date tested: 2026-10-08. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/orb-scalper-1-1-nq ## Summary An opening range scalper that risks about five times what it targets, run on NQ futures from 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02, took 3,601 trades with an 84.6% win rate and +$58,294 gross, then −$168,749.84 after $2.22 per contract in costs. Net of those costs, nine of ten calendar years were below zero, and geometry alone gives 83.3%: a target one fifth of the stop is reached first 5 times in 6 by a random walk. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested The seller of ORB Scalper 1.1, an invite-only TradingView script. The script wins 85% of the time. Its rules are not shown to buyers. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Range: the high and low (wicks included) of the 15-minute candle from 09:15 to 09:30 ET. 2. Signal: a 15-minute candle from 09:30 onward closes above the range high (long) or below the range low (short). 3. Entry: the next bar’s open. 4. Stop: 80% of the way back from the signal close to the far side of the range. With D the distance from the signal close to the stop, D = 0.8 × (signal close − far side of the range). 5. Target: one fifth of the stop distance from the signal close, 0.2 × D, so the target is 0.2R. Prices are rounded to the tick. 6. Size: floor($1,000 ÷ (D × $2)) MNQ contracts, with D taken from the signal close. 7. At most 2 trades a day. The second trade is in the opposite direction only, and a reversal is allowed while a position is open. 8. The last entry fill is at 14:30 ET. Exchange holidays are skipped. Anything still open at the end of the day is closed at the last bar’s close. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - Signals are built from 15-minute bars made from 1-minute NQ data, with stops, targets and fills tested on the 1-minute bars. - Costs are $2.22 per contract round turn: a $1.22 commission plus 1 tick of slippage per side ($0.50 × 2). - The 2025-11-03 to 2026-09-11 period is the period the rules were developed on, so it is in-sample. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures prices, 1-minute data; sizing in MNQ contracts at $2 per point - Date range: 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02 (the test sample), then 2025-11-03 to 2026-09-11 (in-sample) - Sample size: 3,601 trades in the test sample, 313 in the in-sample period - Costs: Gross is the trades before any cost. Net subtracts $2.22 per MNQ contract round turn times the contracts in each trade: a $1.22 round-turn commission plus 1 tick (0.25 point, $0.50) of slippage on each side. The mean position was 28.4 contracts, so the cost averaged about $63 a trade. - In-sample or out-of-sample: 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02 is out-of-sample for the rules. 2025-11-03 to 2026-09-11 is in-sample. ## Results By calendar year, 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02, $1,000 risk per trade | Year | Trades | Win rate | Gross profit or loss | Net of $2.22 per contract | Max drawdown, gross | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 2016 (June on) | 227 | 86.3% | +$8,049 | −$26,099 | −$4,735 | | 2017 | 381 | 82.7% | −$1,378 | −$57,482 | −$8,342 | | 2018 | 378 | 82.8% | −$2,404 | −$32,072 | −$10,564 | | 2019 | 371 | 86.5% | +$14,552 | −$16,453 | −$4,096 | | 2020 | 384 | 83.9% | +$3,676 | −$12,952 | −$11,288 | | 2021 | 384 | 86.2% | +$11,962 | −$3,448 | −$5,525 | | 2022 | 388 | 85.6% | +$9,348 | −$211 | −$5,824 | | 2023 | 384 | 80.7% | −$11,102 | −$25,717 | −$18,230 | | 2024 | 390 | 87.9% | +$21,126 | +$8,654 | −$3,692 | | 2025 (to 11-02) | 314 | 84.1% | +$4,466 | −$2,971 | −$13,450 | | All | 3,601 | 84.6% | +$58,294 | −$168,749.84 | −$18,230 | In-sample period | Period | Trades | Win rate | Gross profit | Max drawdown, gross | |---|---|---|---|---| | 2025-11-03 to 2026-09-11 | 313 | 85.6% | +$8,558 | −$5,301 | - The mean position was 28.4 MNQ contracts across the test sample: 67.8 in 2016, 66.3 in 2017, falling to 10.7 in 2025. - Cost model: $2.22 per MNQ contract round turn, from a $1.22 commission and 1 tick of slippage per side. - Geometry, not a backtest: with the target at one fifth of the stop distance, a driftless random walk reaches the target before the stop with probability 5/6, or 83.3%. A 1:1 bracket gives 50%. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was ORB Scalper 1.1 backtested? The rules were run on NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02: a 15-minute 09:15–09:30 ET range, a 15-minute close outside it as the signal, a stop 80% of the way back to the far side and a target one fifth of the stop distance, sized to risk $1,000 in MNQ contracts. ### What win rate did ORB Scalper 1.1 have over ten years? 84.6% of 3,601 trades from 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02, close to the 83.3% that the 5-to-1 stop and target geometry gives a random walk. ### What happens to ORB Scalper 1.1 after costs? With $2.22 per contract round turn the 3,601 trades lost $168,749.84, and nine of the ten calendar years were below zero. Gross they made $58,294. ### What sample size was used? 3,601 trades from 2016-06-01 to 2025-11-02, plus 313 trades in the in-sample period from 2025-11-03 to 2026-09-11. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Opening range breakout backtest on NQ futures: 324 variations, 1,050,582 trades, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-07. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/orb-324-variations-nq ## Summary Opening range breakout, 324 variations tested on NQ futures from 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27, before costs: 30 versions were clearly positive in-sample and none of those 30 stayed clearly positive out-of-sample. The widely taught 15-minute range, 5-minute fair value gap retest, 2R version took 1,142 trades with a 38.6% win rate and an average of +0.022R, and its cumulative R was below zero from 2016 through 2024. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested A widely taught opening range breakout setup, as presented in a Trader Tips video. Mark the opening range, wait for a breakout, then enter on a retest of the breakout through a fair value gap. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Range: the high and low (wicks included) of the first 5, 15 or 30 minutes from the 09:30 ET open. Entries are allowed from the end of the range to 16:00 ET, with no cutoff time. Breakout events are decided on closed bars of the entry timeframe: a close above the range high or below the range low. 2. Entry timeframes tested: 1, 5 and 15 minutes. Fills, stops and targets are always tested on 1-minute bars. 3. E1 close-out: enter at the next 1-minute open after the breakout bar closes. Stops: range midpoint or the leg low. 4. E2 break and retest: a limit at the range high (low for shorts), filled on the first touch after the breakout bar closes. Stops: range midpoint or the leg low. 5. E3 second breakout: after the breakout, a short-term swing high above the range forms, price retests the range high, then the first close above that swing is the trigger; enter at the next 1-minute open. Stops: range midpoint, leg low or pullback low. 6. E2F (the video’s version): after the breakout, take the latest bullish fair value gap on the entry timeframe that formed after the range ended and contains the range high; limit at the top of the gap; stop at the low of the gap’s first candle. 7. Fade versions: on a failed breakout or a wick that closes back inside, go the other way. Either at the next open after the close back inside, or on the first fair value gap in the fade direction, with the stop at the high of the gap’s first candle. 8. Control: a random direction (seed 7) at every E1 entry, same price and time. 9. Targets: 1R, 2R and 3R. The 324 versions are 3 range lengths × 3 entry timeframes × 12 setups × 3 targets. Exit at target, stop or flat at the close of the 15:59 bar; a bar touching both on the fill bar counts as a stop. 10. One open position per setup at a time. Trades flagged for the 10:00 news release are dropped from the headline numbers. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - Every decision uses only bars that have closed. Swings count only after their confirmation bar closes. - A setup that fails a check is counted and skipped, never adjusted. - Intervals are day-cluster bootstrap, 2,000 resamples. With fewer than 8 trade days a cell shows its trade count only. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, continuous contract, 1-minute bars - Date range: 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27 - Sample size: 324 versions, 1,050,582 filled trades across the grid (994,637 in the headline), on 2,550 trading days with at least one trade - Costs: Gross R. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: In-sample is dates up to 2023-05-31. Out-of-sample is 2023-06-01 onward. The cells and rules were fixed before any run. ## Results The 15-minute range, 5-minute fair value gap retest, 2R version | Sample | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Median stop | |---|---|---|---|---| | In-sample | 829 | 36.7% | −0.032 (−0.111 to +0.059) | 23 points | | Out-of-sample | 313 | 43.8% | +0.164 (+0.016 to +0.308) | 54 points | | All | 1,142 | 38.6% | +0.022 (−0.052 to +0.096) | 33.5 points | The same version by year | Year | Trades | Average R | R | Cumulative R | |---|---|---|---|---| | 2016 | 84 | −0.17 | −14.40 | −14.40 | | 2017 | 120 | −0.04 | −4.36 | −18.76 | | 2018 | 116 | −0.15 | −16.89 | −35.65 | | 2019 | 109 | +0.19 | +20.73 | −14.92 | | 2020 | 115 | −0.04 | −4.23 | −19.15 | | 2021 | 114 | +0.05 | +5.50 | −13.64 | | 2022 | 122 | −0.01 | −0.70 | −14.35 | | 2023 | 119 | −0.02 | −2.93 | −17.27 | | 2024 | 103 | +0.13 | +13.39 | −3.88 | | 2025 | 91 | +0.16 | +14.59 | +10.71 | | 2026 (to 08-27) | 49 | +0.28 | +13.94 | +24.64 | Fading the failed breakout (fair value gap entry, 15-minute range, 5-minute entry, 2R) by year | Year | Trades | Average R | Cumulative R | |---|---|---|---| | 2016 | 170 | +0.16 | +26.99 | | 2017 | 284 | +0.01 | +30.14 | | 2018 | 310 | +0.16 | +80.71 | | 2019 | 288 | 0.00 | +80.90 | | 2020 | 287 | +0.28 | +162.61 | | 2021 | 260 | +0.01 | +164.69 | | 2022 | 267 | +0.14 | +202.99 | | 2023 | 272 | +0.01 | +205.44 | | 2024 | 256 | −0.06 | +189.81 | | 2025 | 242 | +0.03 | +198.13 | | 2026 (to 08-27) | 156 | −0.12 | +179.64 | Every range, entry timeframe and setup at the 2R target: trades and average R (95% interval), in-sample and out-of-sample. The 1R and 3R results make up the rest of the 324. | Version | In-sample trades | In-sample average R | Out-of-sample trades | Out-of-sample average R | |---|---|---|---|---| | 5m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 5,737 | −0.007 (−0.043 to +0.029) | 2,644 | +0.003 (−0.048 to +0.054) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 4,203 | −0.029 (−0.069 to +0.013) | 1,955 | −0.017 (−0.076 to +0.043) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 5,011 | −0.004 (−0.040 to +0.032) | 2,343 | +0.003 (−0.053 to +0.061) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 3,786 | −0.057 (−0.100 to −0.015) | 1,786 | +0.013 (−0.047 to +0.079) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 444 | −0.087 (−0.197 to +0.028) | 222 | +0.069 (−0.110 to +0.252) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 435 | −0.095 (−0.213 to +0.012) | 216 | +0.029 (−0.139 to +0.206) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 451 | −0.119 (−0.245 to +0.003) | 222 | +0.113 (−0.074 to +0.319) | | 5m range, 1m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 1,504 | −0.066 (−0.131 to +0.002) | 548 | −0.008 (−0.119 to +0.110) | | 5m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 5,933 | −0.043 (−0.076 to −0.009) | 2,800 | −0.079 (−0.130 to −0.031) | | 5m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 4,986 | +0.019 (−0.019 to +0.055) | 2,132 | −0.021 (−0.081 to +0.040) | | 5m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 4,477 | −0.004 (−0.044 to +0.036) | 2,077 | −0.019 (−0.080 to +0.041) | | 5m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 3,423 | −0.020 (−0.065 to +0.026) | 1,555 | +0.046 (−0.021 to +0.118) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 4,555 | −0.009 (−0.047 to +0.029) | 2,073 | +0.061 (+0.000 to +0.121) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,833 | −0.004 (−0.047 to +0.040) | 1,285 | +0.030 (−0.032 to +0.098) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 3,402 | +0.002 (−0.042 to +0.045) | 1,542 | +0.029 (−0.043 to +0.103) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 2,407 | −0.062 (−0.109 to −0.013) | 1,106 | +0.021 (−0.055 to +0.093) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 360 | −0.008 (−0.119 to +0.107) | 157 | +0.018 (−0.138 to +0.176) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 357 | +0.003 (−0.093 to +0.099) | 156 | +0.061 (−0.076 to +0.199) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 360 | +0.020 (−0.102 to +0.149) | 157 | −0.081 (−0.257 to +0.104) | | 5m range, 5m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 947 | −0.024 (−0.108 to +0.064) | 348 | +0.077 (−0.056 to +0.218) | | 5m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 3,178 | −0.002 (−0.048 to +0.042) | 1,505 | −0.004 (−0.073 to +0.062) | | 5m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 1,774 | +0.022 (−0.039 to +0.084) | 717 | −0.015 (−0.105 to +0.078) | | 5m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 3,693 | +0.004 (−0.042 to +0.046) | 1,711 | −0.005 (−0.067 to +0.061) | | 5m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 2,278 | +0.025 (−0.027 to +0.074) | 1,070 | +0.007 (−0.067 to +0.082) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 3,243 | +0.034 (−0.011 to +0.077) | 1,465 | +0.062 (−0.005 to +0.133) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,229 | +0.042 (−0.002 to +0.087) | 1,008 | +0.062 (−0.006 to +0.126) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 1,918 | +0.059 (−0.002 to +0.116) | 839 | +0.039 (−0.058 to +0.136) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 1,669 | +0.019 (−0.037 to +0.073) | 747 | +0.048 (−0.030 to +0.129) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 179 | −0.062 (−0.175 to +0.053) | 101 | −0.081 (−0.216 to +0.052) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 179 | −0.043 (−0.135 to +0.055) | 101 | −0.085 (−0.192 to +0.014) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 179 | −0.075 (−0.196 to +0.052) | 101 | −0.071 (−0.215 to +0.073) | | 5m range, 15m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 388 | +0.029 (−0.071 to +0.131) | 171 | −0.070 (−0.215 to +0.091) | | 5m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 1,828 | +0.060 (+0.003 to +0.119) | 801 | −0.032 (−0.113 to +0.051) | | 5m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 677 | +0.128 (+0.039 to +0.215) | 292 | −0.107 (−0.226 to +0.017) | | 5m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,750 | +0.001 (−0.046 to +0.051) | 1,246 | +0.046 (−0.026 to +0.120) | | 5m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 1,925 | +0.016 (−0.032 to +0.063) | 885 | +0.011 (−0.057 to +0.079) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 3,833 | −0.009 (−0.049 to +0.033) | 1,851 | +0.013 (−0.044 to +0.077) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 3,472 | −0.033 (−0.076 to +0.012) | 1,615 | −0.011 (−0.077 to +0.057) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 3,490 | −0.013 (−0.056 to +0.031) | 1,683 | +0.025 (−0.039 to +0.093) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 3,108 | −0.060 (−0.105 to −0.014) | 1,464 | +0.013 (−0.052 to +0.082) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 282 | −0.138 (−0.269 to +0.003) | 150 | +0.087 (−0.107 to +0.273) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 282 | −0.117 (−0.254 to +0.022) | 150 | −0.029 (−0.221 to +0.167) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 285 | −0.110 (−0.265 to +0.036) | 151 | +0.163 (−0.051 to +0.378) | | 15m range, 1m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 1,070 | −0.015 (−0.102 to +0.070) | 421 | −0.020 (−0.151 to +0.112) | | 15m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 6,845 | −0.097 (−0.125 to −0.066) | 3,155 | −0.109 (−0.152 to −0.061) | | 15m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 4,559 | +0.020 (−0.020 to +0.060) | 1,987 | −0.065 (−0.124 to −0.005) | | 15m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,994 | +0.002 (−0.042 to +0.047) | 1,435 | −0.035 (−0.100 to +0.031) | | 15m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 2,991 | −0.044 (−0.090 to +0.003) | 1,398 | −0.010 (−0.083 to +0.069) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 3,298 | +0.016 (−0.025 to +0.061) | 1,591 | +0.042 (−0.021 to +0.109) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,527 | +0.030 (−0.016 to +0.075) | 1,174 | +0.030 (−0.034 to +0.099) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 2,708 | +0.003 (−0.046 to +0.051) | 1,291 | +0.051 (−0.022 to +0.132) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 2,157 | −0.007 (−0.058 to +0.044) | 1,020 | +0.048 (−0.026 to +0.130) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 278 | −0.017 (−0.131 to +0.106) | 142 | +0.102 (−0.071 to +0.275) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 276 | +0.015 (−0.087 to +0.122) | 142 | +0.118 (−0.029 to +0.262) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 278 | +0.039 (−0.094 to +0.185) | 142 | +0.162 (−0.041 to +0.367) | | 15m range, 5m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 829 | −0.032 (−0.111 to +0.059) | 313 | +0.164 (+0.016 to +0.308) | | 15m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 3,658 | +0.011 (−0.031 to +0.053) | 1,627 | −0.040 (−0.108 to +0.027) | | 15m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 1,981 | +0.109 (+0.047 to +0.167) | 811 | −0.046 (−0.132 to +0.045) | | 15m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,787 | +0.018 (−0.028 to +0.067) | 1,345 | −0.056 (−0.127 to +0.011) | | 15m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 2,127 | +0.026 (−0.024 to +0.076) | 992 | −0.026 (−0.098 to +0.048) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 2,779 | +0.045 (−0.003 to +0.091) | 1,300 | +0.048 (−0.019 to +0.117) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,181 | +0.048 (+0.005 to +0.092) | 1,002 | +0.041 (−0.020 to +0.104) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 2,001 | +0.003 (−0.053 to +0.064) | 911 | +0.064 (−0.022 to +0.151) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 1,748 | +0.020 (−0.029 to +0.071) | 813 | +0.033 (−0.034 to +0.114) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 150 | −0.019 (−0.131 to +0.102) | 83 | +0.035 (−0.128 to +0.206) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 149 | −0.024 (−0.113 to +0.072) | 83 | +0.018 (−0.118 to +0.165) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 150 | +0.030 (−0.106 to +0.184) | 83 | +0.039 (−0.150 to +0.245) | | 15m range, 15m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 573 | +0.010 (−0.069 to +0.094) | 270 | +0.091 (−0.030 to +0.216) | | 15m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 2,348 | +0.046 (−0.004 to +0.097) | 1,035 | −0.047 (−0.120 to +0.033) | | 15m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 813 | +0.126 (+0.042 to +0.210) | 331 | −0.082 (−0.197 to +0.041) | | 15m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,412 | +0.028 (−0.022 to +0.077) | 1,126 | +0.014 (−0.054 to +0.087) | | 15m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 1,891 | +0.032 (−0.012 to +0.076) | 880 | −0.009 (−0.073 to +0.057) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 3,130 | +0.018 (−0.024 to +0.064) | 1,469 | +0.009 (−0.054 to +0.075) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,995 | −0.023 (−0.073 to +0.026) | 1,362 | −0.029 (−0.099 to +0.046) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 2,861 | −0.004 (−0.052 to +0.041) | 1,349 | +0.004 (−0.070 to +0.074) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 2,621 | −0.065 (−0.112 to −0.014) | 1,207 | −0.051 (−0.130 to +0.026) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 210 | +0.043 (−0.112 to +0.197) | 118 | +0.044 (−0.157 to +0.238) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 210 | +0.005 (−0.160 to +0.177) | 116 | −0.039 (−0.260 to +0.202) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 210 | +0.030 (−0.148 to +0.208) | 118 | +0.047 (−0.210 to +0.304) | | 30m range, 1m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 880 | −0.033 (−0.120 to +0.061) | 328 | +0.014 (−0.133 to +0.176) | | 30m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 6,576 | −0.070 (−0.103 to −0.038) | 3,099 | −0.084 (−0.130 to −0.037) | | 30m range, 1m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 4,102 | +0.040 (−0.003 to +0.083) | 1,815 | −0.057 (−0.123 to +0.008) | | 30m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,595 | +0.019 (−0.028 to +0.069) | 1,199 | −0.041 (−0.110 to +0.025) | | 30m range, 1m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 2,751 | −0.003 (−0.051 to +0.047) | 1,246 | +0.005 (−0.072 to +0.080) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 2,874 | +0.014 (−0.032 to +0.056) | 1,347 | +0.023 (−0.040 to +0.090) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,505 | +0.021 (−0.025 to +0.065) | 1,157 | +0.003 (−0.058 to +0.071) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 2,417 | +0.010 (−0.038 to +0.061) | 1,131 | +0.022 (−0.051 to +0.101) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 2,124 | −0.015 (−0.067 to +0.037) | 997 | +0.030 (−0.041 to +0.107) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 209 | +0.052 (−0.076 to +0.186) | 105 | −0.015 (−0.185 to +0.160) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 207 | +0.036 (−0.081 to +0.155) | 105 | −0.022 (−0.180 to +0.140) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 209 | +0.119 (−0.051 to +0.282) | 105 | −0.046 (−0.279 to +0.190) | | 30m range, 5m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 754 | −0.028 (−0.117 to +0.066) | 290 | +0.072 (−0.082 to +0.232) | | 30m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 3,962 | −0.003 (−0.043 to +0.036) | 1,837 | −0.035 (−0.097 to +0.028) | | 30m range, 5m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 1,940 | +0.064 (+0.006 to +0.122) | 817 | −0.052 (−0.140 to +0.034) | | 30m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,503 | +0.051 (+0.003 to +0.099) | 1,169 | −0.001 (−0.071 to +0.068) | | 30m range, 5m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 2,233 | +0.026 (−0.020 to +0.071) | 1,028 | −0.022 (−0.087 to +0.046) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at range midpoint | 2,498 | +0.043 (−0.001 to +0.092) | 1,163 | +0.017 (−0.052 to +0.085) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E1 close-out, stop at the leg low | 2,126 | +0.049 (+0.011 to +0.090) | 984 | +0.015 (−0.041 to +0.074) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at range midpoint | 1,898 | +0.007 (−0.046 to +0.061) | 883 | +0.006 (−0.075 to +0.092) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E2 break and retest, stop at the leg low | 1,723 | +0.025 (−0.021 to +0.074) | 805 | +0.004 (−0.063 to +0.074) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at range midpoint | 133 | +0.048 (−0.067 to +0.164) | 63 | −0.022 (−0.187 to +0.149) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the leg low | 133 | +0.033 (−0.067 to +0.132) | 63 | −0.018 (−0.150 to +0.116) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E3 second breakout, stop at the pullback low | 133 | +0.088 (−0.065 to +0.246) | 63 | +0.011 (−0.209 to +0.243) | | 30m range, 15m entry: E2F fair value gap retest, stop at the first candle | 554 | +0.040 (−0.047 to +0.128) | 220 | −0.036 (−0.170 to +0.100) | | 30m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, entry at the close back inside | 2,601 | +0.041 (−0.006 to +0.088) | 1,190 | −0.103 (−0.173 to −0.033) | | 30m range, 15m entry: Fade a failed breakout, fair value gap entry | 835 | +0.109 (+0.034 to +0.187) | 345 | −0.064 (−0.183 to +0.051) | | 30m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at range midpoint | 2,252 | +0.053 (+0.005 to +0.103) | 1,064 | −0.020 (−0.087 to +0.053) | | 30m range, 15m entry: Control, random side, stop at the leg low | 1,935 | +0.025 (−0.016 to +0.068) | 896 | −0.015 (−0.078 to +0.048) | - Of the 324 versions, 30 were clearly positive in-sample and 0 of those 30 stayed clearly positive out-of-sample (8 kept the same sign as a point estimate). Out-of-sample there were 8 clearly positive versions and 19 clearly negative ones. 3 of the 30 in-sample versions were the random-direction control. - Fading a failed breakout on a single 1-minute close back inside (15-minute range, 2R) was negative in all 11 years: in-sample −0.097, out-of-sample −0.109. - The 324 versions share the same days and events, so they are far from independent. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was the opening range breakout backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27, across 324 versions: 3 range lengths, 3 entry timeframes, 12 setups and 3 targets. Fills, stops and targets were tested on 1-minute bars, before costs. ### What sample size was used for the opening range breakout test? 1,050,582 filled trades across the 324 versions. The 15-minute range, 5-minute fair value gap retest, 2R version had 1,142 trades. ### Did any opening range breakout variation hold up out-of-sample? 30 versions were clearly positive in-sample (dates up to 2023-05-31) and none of them stayed clearly positive out-of-sample (2023-06-01 onward). ### How did the fair value gap retest breakout do year by year? Its cumulative R was below zero from 2016 through 2024 and positive from 2025, ending at +24.64R in 2026 on 1,142 trades. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # ICT Power of 3 test on NQ futures daily candles: 2,419 sessions, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-04. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/power-of-3-nq ## Summary ICT’s Power of 3 daily candle shape, counted on 2,419 NQ futures sessions from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27: the strict shape appeared on 8.6% of sessions, and on 8.3% when the same days’ 1-minute bars were shuffled inside 30-minute blocks. The loose shape appeared on 56.1% of sessions against 55.6% after the shuffle, with no trades or costs involved. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested ICT (Inner Circle Trader), the Power of 3 (accumulation, manipulation, distribution) daily candle model. A daily candle first moves against its eventual direction, often through an old swing level, then runs the other way and closes in the direction of the day. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Session: one NQ daily candle, 18:00 ET to the 16:59 ET close. 2. Low-first shape (S1): on an up day, the low came before the high. Down days are the mirror. 3. Loose Power of 3 (S2): the low came first and the day closed in the top quarter of its range. Down days are the mirror. 4. Strict Power of 3 (S3): the low came first, the day closed in the top quarter, it opened in the lower half of its range, and the low went beyond the old 15-minute swing low. Down days are the mirror. 5. Old swing level: the most recent confirmed 15-minute swing (2 bars each side) formed before 18:00 on the same contract, beyond the opening range. 6. M1: of the days where the low came first, the share that went beyond the old 15-minute swing low. M2: the share that went beyond the previous session’s low (previous day’s high for down days). 7. Nulls: Null A shuffles all of a day’s 1-minute bars. Null B shuffles the bars only inside each 30-minute block. Both keep the day’s open and close exact. Each real day is compared with 20 shuffles. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - Down days are mirrored and pooled with up days in the combined rows. - The accumulation range is the bars before the first move of 0.25 of the day’s range away from the open. - Intervals are day-bootstrap, 10,000 draws, paired between the real days and the shuffled days. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, continuous contract - Bar size: 1 minute, with 15-minute swings - Date range: 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27 - Sample size: 2,563 sessions, of which 2,419 valid (1,342 up days and 1,077 down days). 39 roll days, 3 late starts, 97 short days and 5 flat days were set aside. - Costs: Not applicable: descriptive counts, no trades. - In-sample or out-of-sample: Whole-history descriptive statistics. Nothing was fitted, so the split does not apply. ## Results Combined (down days mirrored): share of sessions showing each shape, real vs shuffled | Measure | Real | Null A (full shuffle) | Null B (shuffle in 30-minute blocks) | Real minus Null B, points (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---|---| | S1 low first | 87.8% | 88.6% | 88.0% | −0.2 (−0.8 to +0.4) | | S2 loose Power of 3 | 56.1% | 52.4% | 55.6% | +0.5 (−0.3 to +1.3) | | S3 strict Power of 3 | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | +0.2 (−0.4 to +0.9) | | M1 old swing low taken | 26.8% | 24.6% | 25.6% | +1.1 (+0.3 to +2.0) | | M2 previous-session low taken | 32.5% | 30.7% | 31.6% | +0.9 (+0.3 to +1.6) | | Median minutes after 18:00 to the first 0.25-range move | 504 | 155 | 508 | −4 (−12 to +3) | By direction of the day | Measure | Real | Null A | Null B | Real minus Null B, points (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Up days (1,342): S1 | 86.8% | 89.9% | 87.1% | −0.3 (−1.2 to +0.6) | | Up days: S2 | 64.2% | 55.6% | 62.8% | +1.4 (+0.4 to +2.4) | | Up days: S3 | 9.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | +0.5 (−0.5 to +1.4) | | Down days (1,077): S1 | 89.0% | 87.0% | 89.0% | −0.0 (−0.9 to +0.8) | | Down days: S2 | 46.1% | 48.4% | 46.7% | −0.6 (−1.8 to +0.6) | - The low of the day fell between 09:00 and 10:00 ET on 12.3% of up days. The within-block shuffle gave 12.2%; the full shuffle gave 1.8%. - M1 and M2 ran 1.8 points above Null B on up days only, about 21 of 1,165 low-first up days. On up days the mean gap from the open down to the low was 2.03 points (3.2%) larger than in the within-block shuffle (95% interval +1.36 to +2.69). HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How often does the ICT Power of 3 pattern appear on NQ daily candles? The strict shape appeared on 8.6% of 2,419 valid NQ sessions from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27, and the loose shape on 56.1%. ### How was the Power of 3 tested? Each daily candle (18:00 to 16:59 ET) was labelled for low-first, loose and strict Power of 3. Those rates were compared with the same days after their 1-minute bars were shuffled, either fully or only inside 30-minute blocks. ### What sample size was used for the Power of 3 test? 2,419 valid sessions: 1,342 up days and 1,077 down days. ### Does the Power of 3 shape appear more often than in shuffled data? Against the within-block shuffle the strict shape differed by +0.2 points (95% interval −0.4 to +0.9) and the loose shape by +0.5 points (−0.3 to +1.3). Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # ICT Silver Bullet backtest on NQ futures: 426 trades, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-10-03. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ict-silver-bullet-nq ## Summary ICT Silver Bullet (10:00–11:00 ET window), tested on NQ futures from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27, before costs: the version true to the spec took 426 trades, won 35.2% and averaged −0.010R, a total of −4.3R. A tight-stop version, a fixed 1:2 version and a no-sweep version averaged +0.029R, +0.039R and −0.007R over 426, 426 and 1,589 trades. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested ICT (Inner Circle Trader), the Silver Bullet setup. In the 10:00–11:00 ET window, after a liquidity sweep and a market structure shift, a fair value gap gives an entry toward the next liquidity level. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Window: 10:00 to 10:59 ET. One setup per day. 2. Sweep: price trades beyond the previous day’s high or low, the overnight high or low, or the 09:30–10:00 high or low. 3. Structure shift: after the sweep, a 1-minute swing break (swings use 2 bars each side). 4. Fair value gap: a gap that forms inside the 10:00–10:59 window after the structure shift. 5. Entry (version 1, true to spec): a limit order at the near side of the gap. 6. Stop (version 1): past the sweep extreme. 7. Target (version 1): the nearest untouched level on the opposite side that is at least 10 points away. 8. Exit: the target, the stop, or 12:00 ET, whichever comes first. 9. Version 2: same as version 1 with a tight stop at the gap candle. Version 3: same as version 1 with a fixed 1:2 target. Version 4 (ICT simple): no sweep required. 10. Control: the same logic in the 12:00–13:00 window. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - Where a bar touches both the stop and the target, the trade is scored as a loss (pessimistic same-bar rule). - No parameter was fitted or tuned. There is no train and test split. - Version 1 funnel: 2,474 sweep days, 591 with an armed setup, 426 filled. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, continuous contract, raw prices with contract rolls guarded - Bar size: 1 minute - Date range: 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27 (2,563 sessions) - Sample size: Version 1, 2 and 3: 426 trades each. Version 4: 1,589 trades. Control: 77 trades. - Costs: Gross, in points and R. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: All figures are in-sample: full history, one pass. ## Results Silver Bullet versions, NQ 1-minute data, gross (95% intervals are day-bootstrap) | Version | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Total R | Max drawdown | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Version 1: true to spec | 426 | 35.2% | −0.010 (−0.104 to +0.083) | −4.3R | not reported | | Version 2: tight stop at the gap candle | 426 | 22.8% | +0.029 (−0.138 to +0.201) | +12.3R | not reported | | Version 3: fixed 1:2 target | 426 | 10.6% | +0.039 (−0.059 to +0.134) | +16.4R | not reported | | Version 4: ICT simple, no sweep | 1,589 | 24.0% | −0.007 (−0.098 to +0.084) | −10.4R | not reported | | Control: 12:00–13:00 window | 77 | 3.9% | +0.013 (−0.233 to +0.283) | +1.0R | not reported | Win rate against the win rate the stop and target distances alone give (all filled trades) | Version | Win rate | Mean win rate from distances | |---|---|---| | Version 1 | 35.2% | 51.0% | | Version 2 | 22.8% | 27.1% | | Version 3 | 10.6% | 33.3% | | Version 4 | 24.0% | 27.4% | | Control | 3.9% | 27.1% | Version 1 with a daily-bias filter (average R, 95% interval) | Filter | Trades | When the bias agrees | When the bias opposes | Bias alone, no Silver Bullet | |---|---|---|---|---| | Overnight sweep side | 140 | +0.037 (−0.109 to +0.188) | −0.122 | −0.003 (−0.042 to +0.036) | | Asia range manipulation, 00:00–09:59 | 179 | −0.035 (−0.160 to +0.091) | −0.131 | −0.021 (−0.060 to +0.018) | | Asia range manipulation plus midnight-open check | 167 | −0.033 (−0.163 to +0.099) | −0.061 | −0.029 (−0.072 to +0.013) | Does a pre-10:00 bias call direction? Hit rate in a ±0.25% race from the 10:00 open; the drift baseline is 49.9% | Bias rule | Days labelled | Hit rate | Lift over baseline, points (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---| | Overnight sweep side | 1,537 | 50.2% | +0.4 (−2.1 to +2.8) | | Asia range manipulation | 1,463 | 48.5% | −1.4 (−3.9 to +1.2) | | Asia range manipulation plus midnight open | 1,258 | 47.6% | −2.3 (−5.0 to +0.6) | | New York AM manipulation (overnight box 18:00–08:29, sweep 08:30–09:59) | 1,783 | 49.2% | −0.7 (−3.0 to +1.7) | | New York AM manipulation, quiet nights only | 1,020 | 49.0% | −0.9 (−4.0 to +2.2) | New York AM sweep of the overnight box, race from the first sweep bar (08:30–10:59 ET) | Race | Resolved days | Lift over each day’s geometry, points (95% interval) | |---|---|---| | Invalidation just past the sweep bar | 2,183 | −0.6 (−1.5 to +0.3) | | Invalidation one box width past the sweep | 1,397 | +0.9 (−1.7 to +3.5) | - New York AM sweep days: 2,192, with 1,426 control days. The sweep extreme held as the day extreme and the other side was then taken on 29.5% of days; the same measure was 7.2% on control days, which have a different box size. - Version 1 average R by year ranged from −0.23 (2021) to +0.26 (2023). HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was the ICT Silver Bullet backtested? On NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27. A trade needs a sweep of a prior high or low, a 1-minute swing break, then a fair value gap inside 10:00–10:59 ET. Entry is a limit at the near side of the gap, the stop is past the sweep extreme, the target is the nearest untouched opposite level at least 10 points away, and the trade exits by 12:00 ET. ### What sample size was used for the Silver Bullet test? The spec version took 426 trades from 2,474 sweep days. The no-sweep version took 1,589 trades and the 12:00–13:00 control took 77 trades. ### What was the win rate and average R of the ICT Silver Bullet on NQ? The spec version won 35.2% of 426 trades with an average of −0.010R and a total of −4.3R, before costs. ### Did adding a daily bias change the Silver Bullet results? In three bias filters, the average R when the bias agreed was +0.037R (140 trades), −0.035R (179 trades) and −0.033R (167 trades); every 95% interval included zero. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Asia range sweep reversal backtest on NQ futures: 3,622 trades, 2016–2026 Date tested: 2026-09-28. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/asia-sweep-reversal ## Summary Asia range sweep reversal, tested four ways on NQ futures from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27, before costs: the spec entry won 18.72% of 3,622 trades. The two race tests won 31.40% of 2,519 sessions (geometry alone: 33.3%) and 45.90% of 2,525 sessions (geometry alone: 50%), and the smooth-liquidity target won 28.97% of 3,479 trades against 28.47% for a coin flip. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested No single creator. This is a general rule of thumb in futures trading content. After price sweeps one side of the Asia range, it runs to the other side. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Range: the high and low of the 1-minute bars from 18:00 to 19:00 ET inclusive (61 bars). 2. Sweep: from 19:01 ET, the first bar that trades at least one tick (0.25 points) beyond the range high or the range low. The side swept first sets the direction: high swept means short, low swept means long. A bar that sweeps both sides at once is not traded. 3. Entry (version 1): within 30 minutes of the sweep bar, the first signal in the reversal direction. A signal is an inverse fair value gap (a 3-candle gap that price then closes back through) or a change in state of delivery (CISD, first-open variant). 4. Stop (version 1): the lowest low (long) or highest high (short) from the sweep bar through the signal bar. 5. Target (version 1): the side of the Asia range that was not swept. 6. Exit (version 1): target, stop, or flat at the 16:59 ET session close. No partial exit and no move of the stop to breakeven. 7. Re-entry (version 1): after a full stop-out, one more signal may be taken, so at most 2 entries per session, inside the original 30-minute window and after the first trade has exited. 8. Version 2 (race, no entry rules): from the sweep bar to the session close, a win is price touching the opposite end of the Asia range, a loss is price touching a level 0.5 range-widths beyond the end that was swept. Whichever is touched first decides. 9. Version 3 (race, no entry rules): the same race with the win level moved to the midpoint of the Asia range. 10. Version 4: the version 1 entry and stop, with the target set to the closest confirmed, unswept liquidity pool (1-minute bars, lookback from the prior regular session to the entry) that is at least 0.5R from the entry. If no pool is at least 0.5R away, no trade is taken. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - Where a single bar touches both the stop and the target after the fill, the trade is scored as a loss. - The inverse fair value gap uses the test engine’s own gap geometry. The sweep-and-pool search, the origin gate and the gap-in-leg check were removed for this run, and there is no limit on gap age. - In versions 2 and 3, a bar that touches both levels at once is its own bucket and counts as a loss. Sessions where neither level is reached are left out. - Win rate from geometry is the win rate a driftless random walk gives for those distances: 0.5 / 1.5 = 33.3% in version 2, 50% in version 3. Version 4 uses the average of stop / (stop + target) over its trades as the coin-flip rate. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, continuous contract, CME Group data from Databento (GLBX) - Bar size: 1 minute - Date range: 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27 (the last ~4 weeks of the ordered window were not in the data) - Asia range: 18:00 to 19:00 ET - Sample size: Version 1: 3,622 trades. Version 2: 2,519 sessions. Version 3: 2,525 sessions. Version 4: 3,479 trades. - Costs: Gross. No commission or slippage is subtracted from any figure. The test specified $2.50 per side plus 1 tick of slippage; none of it is applied here. - In-sample or out-of-sample: The whole history was run in one pass and no part was held out, so every figure is in-sample. - Data gaps: 2020-07-01 is excluded because its 18:00–19:00 range hour is missing from the source data. Versions 2 and 3 also leave out 29 sessions with real data gaps. Version 1 keeps them: without those 29 sessions it has 3,578 trades, an 18.78% win rate and an average of +0.0641R. ## Results Asia range sweep reversal, four versions, NQ 1-minute data, 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27, gross | Variation | Trades or sessions | Win rate | Win rate from geometry or a coin flip | Average R | Total R | Max drawdown | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Version 1: spec entry (sweep, inverse fair value gap or CISD, stop at the sweep-to-signal extreme, target the other side) | 3,622 trades | 18.72% | not reported | +0.0588 (95% interval −0.0275 to +0.1470) | +213.12R | 88.34R | | Version 2: race to the other side of the range, loss 0.5 range-widths past the swept end | 2,519 sessions (791 wins, 1,728 losses) | 31.40% | 33.3% | not reported | not reported | not reported | | Version 3: race to the range midpoint, loss 0.5 range-widths past the swept end | 2,525 sessions (1,159 wins, 1,362 losses, 4 same-bar touches counted as losses) | 45.90% | 50% | not reported | not reported | not reported | | Version 4: version 1 entry and stop, target the closest unswept liquidity pool at least 0.5R away | 3,479 trades | 28.97% | 28.47% (coin flip) | +0.0348 (95% interval −0.0341 to +0.1067) | +121.19R | not reported | - Version 1 by half: 2016–2020 had 1,565 trades with an average of −0.0281R; 2021–2026 had 2,057 trades with an average of +0.1250R. - Version 1 exits: 2,944 stops, 676 targets, 2 flat at the close. Median R of the 676 targets: 3.940. - Version 4 by half: 2016–2020 had 1,474 trades with a 25.92% win rate against 26.86% for a coin flip; 2021–2026 had 2,005 trades with 31.22% against 29.64%. - Versions 2 and 3 leave out 9 and 3 unresolved sessions and 1 session with no sweep. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was the Asia range sweep reversal backtested? It was run four ways on NQ futures 1-minute data from 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27. Version 1 trades a sweep of the 18:00–19:00 ET range with an inverse fair value gap or CISD entry, a stop at the sweep-to-signal extreme and the other side of the range as the target. Versions 2 and 3 are plain races with no entry rules, and version 4 changes the target to the closest unswept liquidity pool at least 0.5R away. ### What sample size was used? Version 1 has 3,622 trades, version 2 has 2,519 sessions, version 3 has 2,525 sessions and version 4 has 3,479 trades, all within 2016-09-26 to 2026-08-27. ### Did the Asia sweep backtest include trading costs? No. Every figure is gross. The test specified $2.50 per side plus 1 tick of slippage, but none of it was subtracted. ### What win rate did price reaching the other side of the Asia range have? In the race with the win level at the opposite end of the range, 31.40% of 2,519 sessions were wins, against 33.3% from geometry alone. With the win level at the range midpoint, 45.90% of 2,525 sessions were wins, against 50% from geometry alone. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Breakeven stop test on an IFVG strategy on NQ futures: 3,491 trades, 2020–2026 Date tested: 2026-09-22. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ifvg-breakeven-stop-nq ## Summary The same 3,491 NQ futures trades from an inverse fair value gap (IFVG) model, 2020 to 2026, were resolved two ways, before costs: with the stop moved to breakeven and with the stop left alone. Moving the stop gave a 36.6% win rate and +0.2005R average with a 17.95R maximum drawdown; leaving it alone gave 46.8%, +0.2342R and 21.83R. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested A common trade-management habit, tested on a model of DodgyDD’s inverse fair value gap strategy. Moving the stop to breakeven once a trade is in profit protects the trade. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Signals: inverse fair value gap entries on the 1-minute and 3-minute charts, taken at any hour of the Globex session (18:00 ET to a 16:55 ET flatten). 2. Filters: a minimum reward-to-risk of 0.7 and a minimum risk of 5 points. The entry, stop and first target come from the test’s IFVG engine, which is unchanged between the two runs. 3. Breakeven on: the move is armed when the favorable wick reaches the nearest confirmed short-term pivot between the entry and the first target. After the bar that arms it, the stop becomes the entry price; a touch of that stop scores 0R, and the target can still be reached for a full win. 4. Breakeven off: the original stop against the target, nothing else, until the 16:55 ET flatten. 5. The two runs resolve exactly the same 3,491 signals. Only the breakeven move changes. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - A bar that touches both the stop and the target is scored as a loss. - The description of the IFVG entry, stop and target is limited to what was varied: those rules are the engine’s and were not changed. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute and 3-minute signals, Globex session - Date range: 2020 to 2026 (seven calendar years) - Sample size: 3,491 trades. With breakeven on: 1,279 wins, 1,318 losses, 856 stopped at breakeven, 38 timeouts. - Costs: Gross, in R and NQ points. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: In-sample: the whole history, one pass. ## Results Breakeven on vs off, same trades, gross | Group and rule | Trades | Win rate | Average R (95% interval) | Points per trade | Max drawdown (R) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | All, breakeven on | 3,491 | 36.6% | +0.2005 (+0.160 to +0.246) | +2.76 | 17.95 | | All, breakeven off | 3,491 | 46.8% | +0.2342 (+0.189 to +0.281) | +3.08 | 21.83 | | 1-minute signals, breakeven on | 2,690 | 37.2% | +0.2160 (+0.165 to +0.270) | +2.33 | 19.20 | | 1-minute signals, breakeven off | 2,690 | 45.6% | +0.2540 (+0.195 to +0.313) | +2.62 | 26.00 | | 3-minute signals, breakeven on | 801 | 34.8% | +0.1484 (+0.086 to +0.209) | +4.20 | 9.56 | | 3-minute signals, breakeven off | 801 | 50.8% | +0.1674 (+0.091 to +0.251) | +4.63 | 10.46 | | 09:30–15:30 ET, breakeven on | 1,485 | 36.5% | +0.2044 (+0.140 to +0.274) | +3.73 | 19.16 | | 09:30–15:30 ET, breakeven off | 1,485 | 44.6% | +0.2241 (+0.154 to +0.306) | +3.74 | 21.53 | | 18:00–09:29 ET, breakeven on | 1,793 | 37.9% | +0.2147 (+0.157 to +0.273) | +2.16 | 16.42 | | 18:00–09:29 ET, breakeven off | 1,793 | 50.1% | +0.2573 (+0.190 to +0.320) | +2.75 | 12.60 | | 15:30–16:55 ET, breakeven on | 203 | 28.6% | +0.0961 (−0.070 to +0.263) | +1.54 | 14.64 | | 15:30–16:55 ET, breakeven off | 203 | 35.5% | +0.1546 (−0.038 to +0.361) | +1.65 | 12.65 | | 16:55–17:00 ET, breakeven on | 10 | 0.0% | −0.8080 (−1.258 to −0.397) | −7.50 | 5.70 | | 16:55–17:00 ET, breakeven off | 10 | 0.0% | −0.8080 (−1.258 to −0.397) | −7.50 | 5.70 | What happened to the 856 trades that were stopped at breakeven, when the stop was left alone | Outcome with the stop left alone | Trades | Mean R | Net R | Net points | |---|---|---|---|---| | Full loss | 480 | −1.0000 | −480.00 | −7,837.00 | | Timeout | 21 | +0.5674 | +11.91 | +420.25 | | Win | 355 | +1.6496 | +585.62 | +8,525.00 | | All 856 | 856 | +0.1373 | +117.53 | +1,108.25 | Two halves of the history | Period and rule | Trades | Average R (95% interval) | Max drawdown (R) | |---|---|---|---| | 2020–2022, breakeven on | 1,338 | +0.1529 (+0.096 to +0.220) | 17.95 | | 2020–2022, breakeven off | 1,338 | +0.1979 (+0.133 to +0.278) | 16.01 | | 2023–2026, breakeven on | 2,153 | +0.2301 (+0.167 to +0.284) | 15.64 | | 2023–2026, breakeven off | 2,153 | +0.2567 (+0.188 to +0.320) | 21.83 | - Average R rose from +0.2005 to +0.2342 and points per trade from +2.764 to +3.081 with the stop left alone; the maximum drawdown rose from 17.95R to 21.83R, all of it from the 2023–2026 half. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Video transcript You think you’re protecting the trade. You’re killing it. I’ve been modelling DodgyDD’s IFVG strategy. Thousands of trades in, one habit keeps showing up. Moving the stop to breakeven. In this model, it’s a negative. This trade: stop moved to breakeven — tagged. Zero. Stop left alone — plus one eighty-four. Across the whole test, the stop staying put was worth one hundred seventeen R. The cost: a deeper drawdown. The full DodgyDD model drops soon. ## Questions and answers ### Does moving the stop to breakeven help or hurt an IFVG strategy? On 3,491 NQ trades from 2020 to 2026 the average R was +0.2005 with the breakeven move and +0.2342 with the stop left alone, before costs. The maximum drawdown was 17.95R with the move and 21.83R without it. ### How was the breakeven stop backtested? The same 3,491 IFVG signals were resolved twice. In one run the stop moves to the entry price once price reaches the nearest confirmed pivot between entry and target. In the other the original stop stays until the target or the 16:55 ET flatten. ### What sample size was used? 3,491 trades, of which 856 were stopped at breakeven in the run with the move. ### What happened to the trades that were stopped at breakeven? With the stop left alone, 480 of the 856 became full losses and 355 became wins averaging +1.6496R. Together they netted +117.53R. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # 4-hour engulfing candle to 15-minute CISD backtest on NQ futures: 266 trades, 2020–2026 Date tested: 2026-09-19. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/engulfing-cisd-2r-nq ## Summary A 4-hour engulfing candle followed by a 15-minute change in state of delivery (CISD) with a 2R target, tested on NQ futures from 2020 to 2026 before costs: the headline version took 266 trades, hit the 2R target on 26.3% and averaged +0.106R (95% interval −0.049 to +0.268). The same CISD logic with no engulfing filter took 3,166 trades, hit the target on 28.9% and averaged +0.049R, against a break-even target-hit rate of 33.3% at 2R. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested A trading course creator who shows this setup alongside a $70,000 payout. A 4-hour candle dips below the prior candle’s low and closes back above the prior candle’s open. Mark the zone, wait for the shift on the lower timeframe, put the stop at the swing and target 2 to 1. The post specifies no timeframe, no stop and no hold window, so those were swept or chosen as listed below. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Signal candle E: a 4-hour candle that engulfs the previous 4-hour candle L. Headline (loose): E dips below L’s low and closes above L’s open (mirror for bearish). Secondary (strict): E closes above L’s high. 2. Zone: E’s full range split in half. For a bullish E, the lower half is the buy zone. For a bearish E, the upper half is the sell zone. 3. Trigger: a bullish CISD on the 15-minute chart is a run of one or more consecutive bearish candles; the CISD line is the open of the first candle in the run, and the CISD fires on the first later 15-minute candle that closes above that line. Bearish is the mirror. 4. Qualifying filters: the swing extreme (the run’s lowest low, through and including the candle that fires the CISD) must lie inside the zone; and the run must be at the extreme of the move since E closed. 5. Search window: 16, 32 or 48 fifteen-minute bars after E closes (1, 2 or 3 following 4-hour periods), reported separately. Only the first qualifying CISD is taken. If price closes beyond E’s far extreme first, the signal is dead. 6. Entry: the open of the 15-minute candle after the CISD candle closes. Direction follows E: bullish long, bearish short. 7. Stop: the CISD swing extreme. 1R is the distance from entry to the stop. Target: 2R. 8. Resolution: on 1-minute bars. A bar that touches both the stop and the target is scored as a loss. A trade that reaches neither is closed at the day’s close. 9. Baseline: the identical 15-minute CISD, entry and 2R logic with no engulfing filter, so every 4-hour candle can be the signal candle. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - The break-even target-hit rate for a 2R target with a 1R stop is 33.3%. - Same-bar fill-and-stop trades are kept as real trades. - Intervals are bootstrap intervals clustered on the trade’s entry date. - The CISD swing and the run-at-extreme filter are the third version of the definition, which corrected two earlier ones. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures; 4-hour signals, 15-minute execution, 1-minute resolution - Date range: 2020 to 2026 - Sample size: Signal candles: 931 loose engulfing, 547 strict, 10,188 baseline candidates. With a 32-bar window, 565 loose signals passed the zone test and the run-at-extreme filter removed 299 of them, leaving 266 trades; the baseline went from 6,515 to 3,166 trades. - Costs: Gross. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: In-sample: full history, one pass. ## Results Both directions combined, by search window. Target-hit rate is the share of trades reaching the 2R target. | Window and population | Trades | Target-hit rate (95% interval) | Average R (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---| | 16 bars, loose engulfing | 204 | 27.5% (21.0 to 34.1) | +0.100 (−0.077 to +0.291) | | 16 bars, strict engulfing | 98 | 21.4% (13.5 to 30.2) | −0.035 (−0.272 to +0.213) | | 16 bars, no filter (baseline) | 2,571 | 28.9% (27.3 to 30.7) | +0.048 (−0.002 to +0.103) | | 32 bars, loose engulfing | 266 | 26.3% (21.0 to 31.7) | +0.106 (−0.049 to +0.268) | | 32 bars, strict engulfing | 141 | 19.9% (13.6 to 26.8) | +0.012 (−0.179 to +0.222) | | 32 bars, no filter (baseline) | 3,166 | 28.9% (27.3 to 30.5) | +0.049 (+0.001 to +0.095) | | 48 bars, loose engulfing | 288 | 25.3% (20.4 to 30.5) | +0.088 (−0.061 to +0.244) | | 48 bars, strict engulfing | 154 | 19.5% (13.2 to 26.2) | +0.030 (−0.162 to +0.235) | | 48 bars, no filter (baseline) | 3,457 | 28.6% (27.1 to 30.0) | +0.036 (−0.007 to +0.079) | The 32-bar window by direction | Population and direction | Trades | Target-hit rate (95% interval) | Average R (95% interval) | |---|---|---|---| | Loose engulfing, long | 124 | 25.0% (17.6 to 32.8) | +0.100 (−0.110 to +0.339) | | Loose engulfing, short | 142 | 27.5% (20.1 to 34.5) | +0.112 (−0.098 to +0.315) | | Strict engulfing, long | 63 | 23.8% (14.3 to 34.9) | +0.149 (−0.128 to +0.451) | | Strict engulfing, short | 78 | 16.7% (9.0 to 24.4) | −0.099 (−0.334 to +0.146) | | No filter, long | 1,560 | 29.8% (27.5 to 32.2) | +0.112 (+0.046 to +0.186) | | No filter, short | 1,606 | 28.1% (25.8 to 30.4) | −0.012 (−0.078 to +0.055) | - No cell reached the 33.3% break-even target-hit rate with an interval clear of it, in either the signal or the baseline population. - Neither engulfing definition was distinguishable from the no-filter baseline in any cell. The baseline long side was above zero in all three windows (+0.150, +0.112 and +0.101), over a period in which NQ rose from about 8,800 to about 30,000. - The run is gross by instruction; real costs would lower every figure. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How was the 4-hour engulfing candle and CISD strategy backtested? On NQ futures from 2020 to 2026. A 4-hour engulfing candle sets a zone in its upper or lower half; a 15-minute CISD inside that zone triggers an entry at the next 15-minute open, with the stop at the CISD swing and a 2R target. Trades were resolved on 1-minute bars. ### What sample size was used? The headline version took 266 trades with a 32-bar search window, the strict version 141, and the no-filter baseline 3,166. ### What was the target-hit rate of the engulfing CISD setup? 26.3% of 266 trades hit the 2R target, against 28.9% of 3,166 trades for the same CISD logic with no engulfing filter. The break-even rate at 2R is 33.3%. ### Did the 4-hour engulfing filter change the results? The average R was +0.106 with the filter and +0.049 without, and the two 95% intervals overlapped in every window and direction tested. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Right-direction bias test on NQ futures: 9,048 trades per arm, 2025–2026 Date tested: 2026-09-10. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/perfect-bias-nq ## Summary If the direction of every two-hour block were known in advance, 63.22% of 9,048 NQ futures trades won, against 49.38% for a coin-flip direction, from 2025-08-01 to 2026-07-31, before costs. Each trade used a 1:1 stop and target at 0.75 times the 30-minute ATR, entered every 10 minutes through the block. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested No single creator. This tests a common idea in futures trading content: that a correct directional bias is where the odds come from. Once the direction is right, the entry hardly matters, and a trader’s bias is what tilts the odds. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Blocks: three two-hour blocks per regular session on NQ, 09:30–11:30, 11:30–13:30 and 13:30–15:30 ET (120 one-minute bars each). 2. Bias: the direction of the block’s own net move, D = close of the last bar minus open of the first bar. This uses hindsight on purpose: it is the most favourable case for a bias call, a ceiling. 3. Entries: 12 per block, one every 10 minutes (minutes 0, 10, … 110), at the close of the 1-minute bar at that offset. One unit each. 4. Barrier S: set once per block, from bars strictly before the block starts, as k times the Wilder ATR (14 periods) of 30-minute bars at the last completed 30-minute bar. Rounded to 0.25 points. 5. Stop and target: both S points from the entry, so 1:1. 1R = S. 6. Arms: right bias (trade in the direction of D), coin flip (random direction per trade, seed 42), and wrong bias (the opposite of D). 7. Scoring: first barrier touched on 1-minute bars, scanning up to 360 bars past the entry. A bar that touches both counts as a loss (−1R). Trades touching neither are timeouts. 8. The bias threshold T is the minimum size of D in points. T = 0 means every block has a bias from the sign of D alone. T of 25, 50, 100 and 200 points were also run. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - The barrier uses ATR as a size input only. A second table uses a non-ATR measure, the standard deviation of 1-minute changes over the 120 bars before the block, scaled to 30 minutes, as a control. - The test checks that the barrier cannot see the block: 756 of 756 ATR sources end at or before the block start, and 0 of 24 truncated rebuilds differed. - Results with k of 1.5 and above have timeout rates over 10%; the test’s own rule is not to quote those as results, so they are listed for completeness. ## Data - Instrument: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) futures, 1-minute continuous data - Date range: 2025-08-01 to 2026-07-31, the most recent 12 full months in the file - Sample size: 754 blocks with a direction (756 eligible, 2 with D exactly 0 dropped; 9 incomplete half-day blocks excluded), 9,048 trades per arm - Costs: Gross, in R. No commission or slippage. - In-sample or out-of-sample: Not applicable to a ceiling test: the bias is hindsight by construction. ## Results T = 0, barrier sized from 30-minute ATR; k is the barrier in multiples of ATR | k | Trades per arm | Win rate, right bias | Win rate, coin flip | Average R, right bias (95% interval) | Average R, coin flip (95% interval) | Timeouts | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 0.25 | 9,048 | 55.35% | 49.17% | +0.1070 (+0.0853 to +0.1284) | −0.0166 (−0.0378 to +0.0046) | 0.00% | | 0.50 | 9,048 | 61.37% | 49.34% | +0.2275 (+0.2009 to +0.2541) | −0.0132 (−0.0337 to +0.0074) | 0.01% | | 0.75 | 9,048 | 63.22% | 49.38% | +0.2734 (+0.2404 to +0.3057) | −0.0010 (−0.0217 to +0.0199) | 1.04% | | 1.00 | 9,048 | 62.89% | 47.93% | +0.3016 (+0.2625 to +0.3399) | +0.0040 (−0.0159 to +0.0242) | 4.50% | | 1.50 | 9,048 | 56.86% | 43.23% | +0.2951 (+0.2519 to +0.3386) | +0.0245 (+0.0048 to +0.0436) | 15.86% | | 2.00 | 9,048 | 48.23% | 34.74% | +0.2837 (+0.2410 to +0.3267) | −0.0016 (−0.0186 to +0.0160) | 30.33% | | 3.00 | 9,048 | 32.01% | 22.30% | +0.2386 (+0.1984 to +0.2784) | +0.0033 (−0.0120 to +0.0183) | 55.63% | T = 0, barrier sized from 1-minute dispersion instead of ATR (control) | k | Trades per arm | Win rate, right bias | Win rate, coin flip | Average R, right bias (95% interval) | Average R, coin flip (95% interval) | Timeouts | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 0.25 | 9,048 | 53.02% | 46.85% | +0.0603 (+0.0387 to +0.0822) | −0.0630 (−0.0851 to −0.0409) | 0.00% | | 0.50 | 9,048 | 59.58% | 50.25% | +0.1921 (+0.1673 to +0.2175) | +0.0056 (−0.0161 to +0.0270) | 0.07% | | 0.75 | 9,048 | 62.60% | 49.41% | +0.2603 (+0.2292 to +0.2908) | −0.0025 (−0.0217 to +0.0170) | 0.93% | | 1.00 | 9,048 | 61.23% | 48.13% | +0.2651 (+0.2289 to +0.3007) | +0.0032 (−0.0169 to +0.0236) | 4.07% | | 1.50 | 9,048 | 57.73% | 43.55% | +0.2950 (+0.2527 to +0.3364) | +0.0067 (−0.0138 to +0.0273) | 13.76% | | 2.00 | 9,048 | 51.32% | 37.10% | +0.2901 (+0.2476 to +0.3325) | −0.0034 (−0.0223 to +0.0156) | 25.38% | | 3.00 | 9,048 | 38.35% | 27.35% | +0.2524 (+0.2126 to +0.2925) | +0.0031 (−0.0119 to +0.0183) | 45.60% | - Total R and maximum drawdown are not reported in the source file for this test. - The ATR and dispersion measures agreed from k of 0.75 upward and differed at k of 0.25, where ties occur. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Video transcript Easiest way to a sixty percent win rate? The right bias. I tested twelve trades every two hours for a year. The only input is the correct direction. Sixty three point two percent won, versus no bias at forty nine point four percent. That’s just probability. So zoom out. Instead of a hundred and twenty one minute candles, you only call two hourly ones. Comment test, and I’ll backtest your bias free and show you what’s holding it back. ## Questions and answers ### What win rate does a perfect directional bias give on NQ? With the correct direction of each two-hour block known, 63.22% of 9,048 trades won at a 1:1 barrier of 0.75 times the 30-minute ATR, against 49.38% with a coin-flip direction, from 2025-08-01 to 2026-07-31, before costs. ### How was the right-bias test run? Three two-hour blocks a day, 12 entries per block every 10 minutes, each with a stop and target the same distance away. The direction was the block’s own net move, so it is a ceiling, not a forecast. ### What sample size was used? 754 blocks and 9,048 trades per arm. ### Does the barrier size change the right-bias win rate? Across barriers from 0.25 to 3.0 times ATR the right-bias win rate ran from 32.01% to 63.22% and the coin-flip rate from 22.30% to 49.38%; wider barriers also leave more trades unresolved. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # ICT opening range gap 50% level test on Nasdaq futures: 732 sessions, 2022–2025 Date tested: 2026-08-10. URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/ict-org-gap-midpoint-nq ## Summary ICT’s claim that the 50% level of the opening range gap is hit 70% of the time by 10 a.m., counted on 732 Nasdaq-100 futures sessions from 2022-12-28 to 2025-12-11: price reached the 50% level in the first 30 minutes after the 09:30 open on 413 sessions, 56.4%. By the close of the regular session it reached it on 582 sessions, 79.5%. Tested by CE Market Solutions (cemarketsolutions.com), a backtesting service for CME futures strategies. ## The claim tested ICT (Inner Circle Trader), the opening range gap (ORG) 50% level. The 50% level of the opening range gap gets hit 70% of the time by 10 a.m. ## Rules exactly as tested 1. Gap: the 09:30 ET open minus the close of the 16:14 ET bar on the previous session. A gap up has its levels below the open, a gap down has them above. 2. Levels: 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the gap, measured from the open back toward the previous close. 100% is the previous close itself. 3. Reached: a 1-minute bar trades through the level. The first 30 minutes are the 30 one-minute bars from 09:30 to 09:59 ET. 4. No entry, stop or target. This is a count of how often each level traded, not a trade simulation. Assumptions where the rules were ambiguous: - The 5-minute versions of this study approximated the previous close from the 16:10 bar. This run uses the exact 16:14 bar and exact reach times from 1-minute bars. - The data is the first version of the processed 1-minute file, back-adjusted across contract rolls (about 13 rolls in the sample). Back-adjustment is a constant offset inside one contract, so a same-overnight gap is unaffected except across a roll. - The 09:30 to 09:59 window is read as the claim’s “by 10 a.m.” ## Data - Instrument: Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures, continuous 1-minute bars, back-adjusted - Date range: 2022-12-28 to 2025-12-11 - Sample size: 732 sessions: 409 gap up and 323 gap down - Costs: Not applicable: no trades. - In-sample or out-of-sample: Descriptive counts on the whole sample. Nothing was fitted. ## Results How often each gap level traded, 732 sessions | Gap level | Reached in the first 30 minutes | Share | Reached by the 16:14 close | Share | |---|---|---|---|---| | 25% | 554 of 732 | 75.7% | 645 of 732 | 88.1% | | 50% | 413 of 732 | 56.4% | 582 of 732 | 79.5% | | 75% | 317 of 732 | 43.3% | 511 of 732 | 69.8% | | 100% | 258 of 732 | 35.2% | 454 of 732 | 62.0% | The 50% level in the first 30 minutes, by direction of the gap | Gap direction | Sessions | Reached the 50% level | Share | |---|---|---|---| | Up | 409 | 226 | 55.3% | | Down | 323 | 187 | 57.9% | - Counts and shares are tallied from the per-session file, one row per session with a true or false for each level. The 56.4% (413 of 732) is the 50% level in the first 30 minutes. - The method, including the exact 16:14 close and the reach test, is documented in the script’s header. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ## Questions and answers ### How often does the opening range gap 50% level get hit by 10 a.m.? In 732 Nasdaq-100 futures sessions from 2022-12-28 to 2025-12-11, price reached the 50% level of the gap within the first 30 minutes after the 09:30 open on 413 sessions, 56.4%. ICT’s stated figure is 70%. ### How was the ICT opening range gap tested? The gap is the 09:30 open minus the 16:14 close of the previous session. For each session, 1-minute bars were checked for a trade through the 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% levels, in the first 30 minutes and by the close. ### What sample size was used for the opening range gap test? 732 sessions, of which 409 were gaps up and 323 were gaps down. ### How often does the gap 50% level trade by the end of the day? It traded on 582 of 732 sessions, 79.5%, by the 16:14 close. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com. More tests like this on Instagram and TikTok: @cemarketsolutions. --- # Strategy library: 100 classic strategies tested on NQ and ES futures Index: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies. Every figure is gross (no commission or slippage) over the last 2 years of each market. ## RSI 30/70 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-14-oversold-overbought-30-70. Library name: RSI 14 oversold / overbought (30 / 70). Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: RSI oversold overbought, RSI 14 strategy, RSI 30 70 strategy, RSI overbought oversold strategy, RSI oversold strategy, RSI overbought strategy, buy when RSI 14 crosses back above 30 after being oversold, short when RSI 14 crosses back below 70 after being overbought. ### What it is The relative strength index (RSI, 14 periods) measures the speed of recent price changes on a 0 to 100 scale. This strategy goes long when RSI crosses back above 30 and short when it crosses back below 70, and exits when RSI reaches the other level (70 for longs, 30 for shorts). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 367 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.8% of them and finished -3,208.75 points (-$64,175 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 185 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 54.6% and made -2,150.75 points (-$43,015 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 369 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.6% of them and finished -391.50 points (-$19,575 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI 30/70 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 crosses back above 30 after being oversold? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 185 long trades, won 54.6% of them and made -2,150.75 points (-$43,015 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 927.25 points on 286 trades on the 5-minute chart, 519.00 points on 68 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,760.75 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time RSI 14 crosses back below 70 after being overbought? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 190 short trades, won 45.8% of them and made 400.25 points ($20,013 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -224.50 points on 297 trades on the 5-minute chart, -63.75 points on 71 trades on the 1-hour chart and -445.25 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI 30/70 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 367 trades, won 48.8% of them and finished -3,208.75 points (-$64,175 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 14 oversold / overbought (30 / 70) on ES futures? A: The RSI 30/70 strategy won 46.6% of its 369 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 49.2% of 581 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.1% of 129 trades on the 1-hour chart and 75.0% of 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI 30/70 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 strategy made -1,210.25 points on 549 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,208.75 points on 367 trades on the 15-minute chart, -614.50 points on 140 trades on the 1-hour chart and -24.25 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI 30/70 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,150.75 points on 185 trades (54.6% won) and the short trades made -1,058.00 points on 182 trades (42.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI 30/70 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI 30/70 strategy took 367 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 549 on the 5-minute chart, 140 on the 1-hour chart and 5 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI 30/70 strategy on NQ? A: The RSI 30/70 strategy had a max drawdown of 4,327.50 points ($86,550 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,368.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,960.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,603.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI 30/70 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 369 trades, won 46.6% of them and made -391.50 points (-$19,575 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 strategy took 367 trades, won 48.8% of them and made -3,208.75 points (-$64,175 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## MACD crossover backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-12-26-9-signal-cross. Library name: MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: MACD signal line cross, MACD cross strategy, MACD 12 26 9, MACD line crosses signal line, MACD bullish crossover, MACD bearish crossover, buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, short when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. ### What it is The MACD is the difference between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages, compared with its own 9-period average (the signal line). This strategy goes long when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover strategy took 1,042 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.1% of them and finished -1,921.25 points (-$38,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 512 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 44.7% and made -1,330.75 points (-$26,615 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover strategy took 1,089 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.1% of them and finished -152.25 points (-$7,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the MACD crossover strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD line crosses above the signal line? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover strategy took 512 long trades, won 44.7% of them and made -1,330.75 points (-$26,615 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,241.50 points on 1,524 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,257.75 points on 142 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,038.00 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the MACD line crosses below the signal line? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover strategy took 547 short trades, won 39.9% of them and made 216.00 points ($10,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 731.00 points on 1,499 trades on the 5-minute chart, -31.00 points on 146 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,303.25 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the MACD crossover strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,042 trades, won 42.1% of them and finished -1,921.25 points (-$38,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross on ES futures? A: The MACD crossover strategy won 41.1% of its 1,089 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.7% of 2,976 trades on the 5-minute chart, 45.6% of 298 trades on the 1-hour chart and 24.4% of 45 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the MACD crossover strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover strategy made 461.00 points on 3,076 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,921.25 points on 1,042 trades on the 15-minute chart, -984.75 points on 264 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,984.75 points on 43 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD crossover signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,330.75 points on 512 trades (44.7% won) and the short trades made -590.50 points on 530 trades (39.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the MACD crossover strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The MACD crossover strategy took 1,042 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,076 on the 5-minute chart, 264 on the 1-hour chart and 43 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the MACD crossover strategy on NQ? A: The MACD crossover strategy had a max drawdown of 4,660.75 points ($93,215 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,313.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,826.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,162.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the MACD crossover strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover strategy took 1,089 trades, won 41.1% of them and made -152.25 points (-$7,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover strategy took 1,042 trades, won 42.1% of them and made -1,921.25 points (-$38,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## EMA 9/21 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-9-21-cross. Library name: EMA 9 / 21 cross. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 9 21 EMA crossover, 9 and 21 EMA strategy, EMA crossover strategy, 9 EMA crosses 21 EMA, buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA, short when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA. ### What it is An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 9-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 285 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.9% and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.3% of them and finished 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 285 long trades, won 43.9% of them and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,357.50 points on 849 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,170.50 points on 94 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,131.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 308 short trades, won 40.6% of them and made 96.50 points ($4,825 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 339.75 points on 821 trades on the 5-minute chart, 121.25 points on 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,396.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 9 / 21 cross on ES futures? A: The EMA 9/21 cross strategy won 41.3% of its 606 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.1% of 1,643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.3% of 209 trades on the 1-hour chart and 20.8% of 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the EMA 9/21 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy made 649.50 points on 1,690 trades on the 5-minute chart, 627.25 points on 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,392.50 points on 199 trades on the 1-hour chart and -127.75 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 9/21 cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -399.75 points on 285 trades (43.9% won) and the short trades made 1,027.00 points on 264 trades (39.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,690 on the 5-minute chart, 199 on the 1-hour chart and 22 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ? A: The EMA 9/21 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,680.00 points ($73,600 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,015.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,657.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,539.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades, won 41.3% of them and made 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and made 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Bollinger Bands fade backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/bollinger-lower-band-buy-20-2. Library name: Bollinger lower band buy (20, 2). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: Bollinger Bands mean reversion, Bollinger lower band buy, Bollinger Bands 20 2 strategy, buy the lower Bollinger Band, buy when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2), short when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2). ### What it is Bollinger Bands place a 20-period simple moving average with bands two standard deviations above and below it. This strategy goes long on a close below the lower band and short on a close above the upper band, and exits on a touch of the middle band (the 20-period average). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 62.6% of them and finished -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 347 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 66.0% and made -691.00 points (-$13,820 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 729 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 61.7% of them and finished -293.50 points (-$14,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 347 long trades, won 66.0% of them and made -691.00 points (-$13,820 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,616.25 points on 845 trades on the 5-minute chart, -768.75 points on 186 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,873.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 367 short trades, won 60.8% of them and made -198.25 points (-$9,912 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -172.50 points on 808 trades on the 5-minute chart, 302.50 points on 236 trades on the 1-hour chart and -272.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on the 15-minute chart took 697 trades, won 62.6% of them and finished -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Bollinger lower band buy (20, 2) on ES futures? A: The Bollinger Bands fade strategy won 61.7% of its 729 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 66.1% of 1,665 trades on the 5-minute chart, 55.3% of 436 trades on the 1-hour chart and 73.7% of 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Bollinger Bands fade strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy made -3,253.50 points on 1,662 trades on the 5-minute chart, -988.00 points on 697 trades on the 15-minute chart, -671.25 points on 394 trades on the 1-hour chart and -461.00 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands fade signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -691.00 points on 347 trades (66.0% won) and the short trades made -297.00 points on 350 trades (59.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,662 on the 5-minute chart, 394 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on NQ? A: The Bollinger Bands fade strategy had a max drawdown of 3,987.75 points ($79,755 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,679.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,298.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,843.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 729 trades, won 61.7% of them and made -293.50 points (-$14,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades, won 62.6% of them and made -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 15-minute opening range breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-range-breakout-15-minutes. Library name: Opening range breakout, 15 minutes. Family: Opening and session. Also called: ORB 15, 15 minute ORB, opening range breakout 15 minutes, 15 minute opening range, 15 minute opening range breakout, buy when price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range, short when price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range. ### What it is The opening range is the high and low of the first 15 minutes of the regular session (09:30 to 09:45 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 43.8% of them and finished 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 264 long trades on the session timeframe won 46.6% and made 2,928.00 points ($58,560 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 41.4% of them and finished 503.75 points ($25,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 264 long trades, won 46.6% of them and made 2,928.00 points ($58,560 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 243 short trades, won 39.5% of them and made 433.50 points ($21,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 514 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Opening range breakout, 15 minutes on ES futures? A: The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy won 41.4% of its 514 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 15-minute opening range breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,928.00 points on 264 trades (46.6% won) and the short trades made -512.25 points on 250 trades (40.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ? A: The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 4,775.25 points ($95,505 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 503.75 points ($25,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades, won 43.8% of them and made 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## MACD zero-line cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-zero-line-cross. Library name: MACD zero-line cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: MACD zero cross, MACD crossing zero, MACD centerline cross, MACD crosses zero line, buy when the MACD line crosses above zero, short when the MACD line crosses below zero. ### What it is The MACD line is the 12-period EMA minus the 26-period EMA, and the zero line is where the two averages are equal. This strategy goes long when the MACD line crosses above zero, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 233 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.8% and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 494 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.7% of them and finished 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the MACD zero-line cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD line crosses above zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 233 long trades, won 46.8% of them and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -908.50 points on 652 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,952.00 points on 73 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,888.75 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the MACD line crosses below zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 254 short trades, won 44.1% of them and made 442.75 points ($22,138 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 399.50 points on 643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 8.75 points on 85 trades on the 1-hour chart and -808.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the MACD zero-line cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD zero-line cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of MACD zero-line cross on ES futures? A: The MACD zero-line cross strategy won 44.7% of its 494 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.3% of 1,287 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.3% of 160 trades on the 1-hour chart and 22.2% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the MACD zero-line cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD zero-line cross strategy made 671.00 points on 1,290 trades on the 5-minute chart, 696.00 points on 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,908.75 points on 153 trades on the 1-hour chart and -579.00 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD zero-line cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -78.50 points on 233 trades (46.8% won) and the short trades made 774.50 points on 221 trades (40.7% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the MACD zero-line cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The MACD zero-line cross strategy took 454 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,290 on the 5-minute chart, 153 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the MACD zero-line cross strategy on NQ? A: The MACD zero-line cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,214.75 points ($84,295 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,798.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,656.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,759.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the MACD zero-line cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 494 trades, won 44.7% of them and made 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD zero-line cross strategy took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and made 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## MACD cross below zero backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-cross-below-zero. Library name: MACD cross below zero. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: MACD signal cross below zero, MACD cross while below zero, MACD zero filter strategy, buy when the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are below zero, short when the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are above zero. ### What it is This strategy trades the MACD crossing its signal line only on the side of the zero line the cross happens on: long when both are below zero, short only when both are above zero. It exits on the opposite signal cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.7% of them and finished -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 337 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.0% and made -2,401.50 points (-$48,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 699 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.1% of them and finished -214.00 points (-$10,700 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the MACD cross below zero strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are below zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 337 long trades, won 43.0% of them and made -2,401.50 points (-$48,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,003.50 points on 885 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,346.50 points on 62 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,550.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are above zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 369 short trades, won 42.6% of them and made 189.00 points ($9,450 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 1,050.75 points on 982 trades on the 5-minute chart, -49.50 points on 87 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,570.25 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the MACD cross below zero strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy on the 15-minute chart took 696 trades, won 41.7% of them and finished -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of MACD cross below zero on ES futures? A: The MACD cross below zero strategy won 42.1% of its 699 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 40.2% of 1,884 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.9% of 148 trades on the 1-hour chart and 17.9% of 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the MACD cross below zero strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy made -2,100.25 points on 1,923 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,146.50 points on 696 trades on the 15-minute chart, -500.25 points on 128 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,023.00 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD cross below zero signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,401.50 points on 337 trades (43.0% won) and the short trades made 255.00 points on 359 trades (40.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the MACD cross below zero strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,923 on the 5-minute chart, 128 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the MACD cross below zero strategy on NQ? A: The MACD cross below zero strategy had a max drawdown of 2,817.75 points ($56,355 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,371.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,707.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,988.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the MACD cross below zero strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 699 trades, won 42.1% of them and made -214.00 points (-$10,700 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades, won 41.7% of them and made -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## RSI 20/80 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-14-at-20-80. Library name: RSI 14 at 20 / 80. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: RSI 14 at 20 and 80, RSI extreme strategy, RSI 20 80 strategy, buy when RSI 14 crosses back above 20 after being oversold, short when RSI 14 crosses back below 80 after being overbought. ### What it is The relative strength index (RSI, 14 periods) measures the speed of recent price changes on a 0 to 100 scale. This strategy follows the RSI 30/70 rules with the levels at 20 and 80, and exits when RSI reaches 80 (longs) or 20 (shorts). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 115 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.5% of them and finished -2,293.00 points (-$45,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 59 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 47.5% and made -1,338.50 points (-$26,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 104 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.4% of them and finished -429.00 points (-$21,450 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI 20/80 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 crosses back above 20 after being oversold? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 59 long trades, won 47.5% of them and made -1,338.50 points (-$26,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -3,309.50 points on 79 trades on the 5-minute chart, 985.75 points on 17 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time RSI 14 crosses back below 80 after being overbought? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 45 short trades, won 35.6% of them and made -161.25 points (-$8,062 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -376.00 points on 66 trades on the 5-minute chart, 29.50 points on 12 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI 20/80 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 20/80 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 115 trades, won 43.5% of them and finished -2,293.00 points (-$45,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 14 at 20 / 80 on ES futures? A: The RSI 20/80 strategy won 41.4% of its 104 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 48.1% of 154 trades on the 5-minute chart and 57.1% of 28 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI 20/80 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 20/80 strategy made -6,047.25 points on 146 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,293.00 points on 115 trades on the 15-minute chart, 853.50 points on 30 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,219.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI 20/80 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,338.50 points on 59 trades (47.5% won) and the short trades made -954.50 points on 56 trades (39.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI 20/80 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI 20/80 strategy took 115 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 146 on the 5-minute chart, 30 on the 1-hour chart and 1 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI 20/80 strategy on NQ? A: The RSI 20/80 strategy had a max drawdown of 2,775.00 points ($55,500 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,271.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 322.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,219.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI 20/80 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 104 trades, won 41.4% of them and made -429.00 points (-$21,450 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 20/80 strategy took 115 trades, won 43.5% of them and made -2,293.00 points (-$45,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## RSI 50 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-14-crosses-50. Library name: RSI 14 crosses 50. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: RSI crossing 50, RSI midline strategy, RSI 14 50 level, RSI crosses 50, buy when RSI 14 crosses above 50, short when RSI 14 crosses below 50. ### What it is The relative strength index (RSI, 14 periods) measures the speed of recent price changes on a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 as the midline. This strategy goes long when RSI crosses above 50, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 1,376 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 29.0% of them and finished -2,261.50 points (-$45,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 697 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 30.1% and made -1,544.25 points (-$30,885 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 1,422 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.0% of them and finished 376.75 points ($18,838 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI 50 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 crosses above 50? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 697 long trades, won 30.1% of them and made -1,544.25 points (-$30,885 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 472.50 points on 2,153 trades on the 5-minute chart, 682.75 points on 199 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,416.00 points on 33 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time RSI 14 crosses below 50? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 715 short trades, won 28.3% of them and made -144.00 points (-$7,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -241.75 points on 2,149 trades on the 5-minute chart, 194.75 points on 238 trades on the 1-hour chart and -608.25 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI 50 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 50 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,376 trades, won 29.0% of them and finished -2,261.50 points (-$45,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 14 crosses 50 on ES futures? A: The RSI 50 cross strategy won 30.0% of its 1,422 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 25.2% of 4,291 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.0% of 450 trades on the 1-hour chart and 26.1% of 46 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI 50 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 50 cross strategy made -2,293.00 points on 4,298 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,261.50 points on 1,376 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,711.00 points on 410 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,452.00 points on 66 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI 50 cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,544.25 points on 697 trades (30.1% won) and the short trades made -717.25 points on 679 trades (27.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI 50 cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI 50 cross strategy took 1,376 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 4,298 on the 5-minute chart, 410 on the 1-hour chart and 66 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI 50 cross strategy on NQ? A: The RSI 50 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,484.75 points ($69,695 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,183.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,833.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,512.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI 50 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 1,422 trades, won 30.0% of them and made 376.75 points ($18,838 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 50 cross strategy took 1,376 trades, won 29.0% of them and made -2,261.50 points (-$45,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## RSI breakout above 70 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-14-breakout-above-70. Library name: RSI 14 breakout above 70. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: RSI momentum strategy, RSI above 70 strategy, RSI 70 breakout, buy when RSI 14 crosses above 70, short when RSI 14 crosses below 30. ### What it is The relative strength index (RSI, 14 periods) measures the speed of recent price changes on a 0 to 100 scale. This momentum version goes long when RSI crosses above 70 and short when it crosses below 30, and exits when RSI moves back through 50. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 342 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.3% of them and finished 3,904.25 points ($78,085 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 162 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 52.5% and made 3,165.50 points ($63,310 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 362 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.7% of them and finished 740.25 points ($37,013 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI breakout above 70 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 crosses above 70? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 162 long trades, won 52.5% of them and made 3,165.50 points ($63,310 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,211.25 points on 287 trades on the 5-minute chart, 798.00 points on 87 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,496.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time RSI 14 crosses below 30? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 178 short trades, won 45.5% of them and made 747.25 points ($37,363 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 121.00 points on 333 trades on the 5-minute chart, -107.00 points on 76 trades on the 1-hour chart and -146.00 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI breakout above 70 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 342 trades, won 45.3% of them and finished 3,904.25 points ($78,085 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 14 breakout above 70 on ES futures? A: The RSI breakout above 70 strategy won 46.7% of its 362 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.2% of 664 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.0% of 168 trades on the 1-hour chart and 40.0% of 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI breakout above 70 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy made 4,971.50 points on 612 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,904.25 points on 342 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,600.75 points on 161 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,100.50 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI breakout above 70 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 3,165.50 points on 162 trades (52.5% won) and the short trades made 738.75 points on 180 trades (38.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI breakout above 70 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 342 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 612 on the 5-minute chart, 161 on the 1-hour chart and 6 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI breakout above 70 strategy on NQ? A: The RSI breakout above 70 strategy had a max drawdown of 1,975.50 points ($39,510 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,227.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,121.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,024.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI breakout above 70 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 362 trades, won 46.7% of them and made 740.25 points ($37,013 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI breakout above 70 strategy took 342 trades, won 45.3% of them and made 3,904.25 points ($78,085 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## RSI 2 (Connors) backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-2-connors. Library name: RSI 2 (Connors). Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Connors RSI 2, RSI 2 strategy, Larry Connors RSI 2, buy when price is above the 200 SMA and RSI 2 is below 10, short when price is below the 200 SMA and RSI 2 is above 90. ### What it is The 2-period RSI is a very short-term version of the relative strength index popularized by Larry Connors. This strategy goes long when price is above the SMA 200 and RSI(2) is below 10 (short when below the SMA 200 and RSI(2) is above 90), and exits on a close back above the SMA 5 (long) or below it (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 494 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 61.3% of them and finished -891.25 points (-$17,825 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 297 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 65.3% and made -712.50 points (-$14,250 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 487 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 60.4% of them and finished 71.25 points ($3,563 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price is above the 200 SMA and RSI 2 is below 10? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 297 long trades, won 65.3% of them and made -712.50 points (-$14,250 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,651.00 points on 800 trades on the 5-minute chart, 529.25 points on 97 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,063.75 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price is below the 200 SMA and RSI 2 is above 90? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 204 short trades, won 58.8% of them and made 27.75 points ($1,388 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 109.00 points on 671 trades on the 5-minute chart, 66.50 points on 61 trades on the 1-hour chart and -471.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy on the 15-minute chart took 494 trades, won 61.3% of them and finished -891.25 points (-$17,825 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 2 (Connors) on ES futures? A: The RSI 2 (Connors) strategy won 60.4% of its 487 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 62.8% of 1,491 trades on the 5-minute chart, 62.1% of 169 trades on the 1-hour chart and 85.2% of 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy made -380.75 points on 1,528 trades on the 5-minute chart, -891.25 points on 494 trades on the 15-minute chart, 640.25 points on 165 trades on the 1-hour chart and 283.50 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI 2 (Connors) signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -712.50 points on 297 trades (65.3% won) and the short trades made -178.75 points on 197 trades (55.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 494 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,528 on the 5-minute chart, 165 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy on NQ? A: The RSI 2 (Connors) strategy had a max drawdown of 1,472.75 points ($29,455 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,751.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,700.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,683.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 487 trades, won 60.4% of them and made 71.25 points ($3,563 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 2 (Connors) strategy took 494 trades, won 61.3% of them and made -891.25 points (-$17,825 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Stochastic oscillator cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/stochastic-14-3-3-cross-in-the-zone. Library name: Stochastic (14, 3, 3) cross in the zone. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Stochastic 14 3 3 strategy, stochastic crossover, stochastic overbought oversold, stochastic crosses in the oversold zone, buy when the Stochastic %K crosses above %D while below 20, short when the Stochastic %K crosses below %D while above 80. ### What it is The stochastic oscillator (14, 3, 3) compares the close with the recent high-low range, with %K as the fast line and %D as its average. This strategy goes long when %K crosses above %D below 20, short when %K crosses below %D above 80, and exits on the opposite zone cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 525 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 47.8% of them and finished -3,590.75 points (-$71,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 200 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 56.5% and made -2,096.50 points (-$41,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 537 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.6% of them and finished -173.25 points (-$8,662 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Stochastic %K crosses above %D while below 20? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 200 long trades, won 56.5% of them and made -2,096.50 points (-$41,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,688.25 points on 501 trades on the 5-minute chart, 410.25 points on 51 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,698.50 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Stochastic %K crosses below %D while above 80? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 329 short trades, won 46.8% of them and made 333.25 points ($16,663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -121.00 points on 603 trades on the 5-minute chart, 56.50 points on 109 trades on the 1-hour chart and -970.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 525 trades, won 47.8% of them and finished -3,590.75 points (-$71,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Stochastic (14, 3, 3) cross in the zone on ES futures? A: The Stochastic oscillator cross strategy won 48.6% of its 537 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 56.1% of 1,098 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.1% of 158 trades on the 1-hour chart and 57.1% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy made 896.75 points on 1,099 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,590.75 points on 525 trades on the 15-minute chart, 712.50 points on 162 trades on the 1-hour chart and -780.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Stochastic oscillator cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,096.50 points on 200 trades (56.5% won) and the short trades made -1,494.25 points on 325 trades (42.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 525 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,099 on the 5-minute chart, 162 on the 1-hour chart and 9 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy on NQ? A: The Stochastic oscillator cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,841.75 points ($96,835 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,208.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,530.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,526.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 537 trades, won 48.6% of them and made -173.25 points (-$8,662 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic oscillator cross strategy took 525 trades, won 47.8% of them and made -3,590.75 points (-$71,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Stochastic RSI backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/stochastic-rsi-14-14-3-3. Library name: Stochastic RSI (14, 14, 3, 3). Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: StochRSI strategy, Stochastic RSI 14 14 3 3, Stoch RSI crossover, buy when the Stochastic RSI K line crosses above the D line below 20, short when the Stochastic RSI K line crosses below the D line above 80. ### What it is The stochastic RSI (14, 14, 3, 3) applies the stochastic formula to the RSI instead of price. This strategy goes long when K crosses above D below 20, short when K crosses below D above 80, and exits on the opposite zone cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 739 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.8% of them and finished -1,491.50 points (-$29,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 331 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.7% and made -1,066.75 points (-$21,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 743 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 51.4% of them and finished 887.25 points ($44,363 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Stochastic RSI strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Stochastic RSI K line crosses above the D line below 20? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 331 long trades, won 51.7% of them and made -1,066.75 points (-$21,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,059.50 points on 885 trades on the 5-minute chart, -75.75 points on 128 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,758.75 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Stochastic RSI K line crosses below the D line above 80? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 402 short trades, won 49.0% of them and made 800.25 points ($40,013 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -293.75 points on 904 trades on the 5-minute chart, -409.25 points on 132 trades on the 1-hour chart and -966.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Stochastic RSI strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic RSI strategy on the 15-minute chart took 739 trades, won 49.8% of them and finished -1,491.50 points (-$29,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Stochastic RSI (14, 14, 3, 3) on ES futures? A: The Stochastic RSI strategy won 51.4% of its 743 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 54.9% of 1,784 trades on the 5-minute chart, 47.8% of 253 trades on the 1-hour chart and 73.3% of 15 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Stochastic RSI strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic RSI strategy made 1,636.75 points on 1,801 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,491.50 points on 739 trades on the 15-minute chart, -231.00 points on 263 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,340.50 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Stochastic RSI signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,066.75 points on 331 trades (51.7% won) and the short trades made -424.75 points on 408 trades (48.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Stochastic RSI strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Stochastic RSI strategy took 739 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,801 on the 5-minute chart, 263 on the 1-hour chart and 19 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Stochastic RSI strategy on NQ? A: The Stochastic RSI strategy had a max drawdown of 3,937.50 points ($78,750 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,907.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,004.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,866.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Stochastic RSI strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 743 trades, won 51.4% of them and made 887.25 points ($44,363 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Stochastic RSI strategy took 739 trades, won 49.8% of them and made -1,491.50 points (-$29,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## CCI 100 breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/cci-20-above-100. Library name: CCI 20 above +100. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: CCI 20 strategy, commodity channel index breakout, CCI above 100, buy when CCI 20 crosses above +100, short when CCI 20 crosses below -100. ### What it is The commodity channel index (CCI, 20 periods) measures how far price is from its recent average. This strategy goes long when the CCI crosses above +100 and short when it crosses below -100, and exits when the CCI moves back through +100 or -100. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 1,168 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 36.7% of them and finished 104.50 points ($2,090 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 610 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.2% and made -337.00 points (-$6,740 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 1,230 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.3% of them and finished 208.50 points ($10,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the CCI 100 breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time CCI 20 crosses above +100? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 610 long trades, won 38.2% of them and made -337.00 points (-$6,740 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,242.00 points on 1,938 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,531.25 points on 202 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,407.75 points on 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time CCI 20 crosses below -100? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 596 short trades, won 35.1% of them and made -18.25 points (-$912 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 467.25 points on 1,796 trades on the 5-minute chart, 98.00 points on 226 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,171.75 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the CCI 100 breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI 100 breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,168 trades, won 36.7% of them and finished 104.50 points ($2,090 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of CCI 20 above +100 on ES futures? A: The CCI 100 breakout strategy won 37.3% of its 1,230 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.3% of 3,715 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.2% of 461 trades on the 1-hour chart and 32.0% of 50 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the CCI 100 breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI 100 breakout strategy made 1,989.75 points on 3,687 trades on the 5-minute chart, 104.50 points on 1,168 trades on the 15-minute chart, 3,042.50 points on 415 trades on the 1-hour chart and 517.25 points on 45 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell CCI 100 breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -337.00 points on 610 trades (38.2% won) and the short trades made 441.50 points on 558 trades (35.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the CCI 100 breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The CCI 100 breakout strategy took 1,168 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,687 on the 5-minute chart, 415 on the 1-hour chart and 45 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the CCI 100 breakout strategy on NQ? A: The CCI 100 breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,764.75 points ($55,295 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,326.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,816.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,366.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the CCI 100 breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 1,230 trades, won 37.3% of them and made 208.50 points ($10,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI 100 breakout strategy took 1,168 trades, won 36.7% of them and made 104.50 points ($2,090 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## CCI reversal from -100 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/cci-20-reversal-from-100. Library name: CCI 20 reversal from -100. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: CCI reversal strategy, CCI oversold overbought, CCI -100 +100 reversal, buy when CCI 20 crosses back above -100, short when CCI 20 crosses back below +100. ### What it is The commodity channel index (CCI, 20 periods) measures how far price is from its recent average. This strategy goes long when the CCI crosses back above -100 and short when it crosses back below +100, and exits when the CCI reaches the other side. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 811 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 57.8% of them and finished -3,661.50 points (-$73,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 387 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 62.3% and made 1,481.75 points ($29,635 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 830 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 59.4% of them and finished 13.25 points ($663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the CCI reversal from -100 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time CCI 20 crosses back above -100? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 387 long trades, won 62.3% of them and made 1,481.75 points ($29,635 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,799.25 points on 883 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,558.00 points on 142 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,302.00 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time CCI 20 crosses back below +100? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 428 short trades, won 56.3% of them and made -139.50 points (-$6,975 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -910.00 points on 855 trades on the 5-minute chart, 191.75 points on 166 trades on the 1-hour chart and -307.50 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the CCI reversal from -100 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 811 trades, won 57.8% of them and finished -3,661.50 points (-$73,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of CCI 20 reversal from -100 on ES futures? A: The CCI reversal from -100 strategy won 59.4% of its 830 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 61.9% of 1,712 trades on the 5-minute chart, 53.2% of 314 trades on the 1-hour chart and 75.0% of 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the CCI reversal from -100 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy made -955.75 points on 1,760 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,661.50 points on 811 trades on the 15-minute chart, -222.50 points on 277 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,802.50 points on 17 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell CCI reversal from -100 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,481.75 points on 387 trades (62.3% won) and the short trades made -5,143.25 points on 424 trades (53.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the CCI reversal from -100 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 811 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,760 on the 5-minute chart, 277 on the 1-hour chart and 17 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the CCI reversal from -100 strategy on NQ? A: The CCI reversal from -100 strategy had a max drawdown of 4,742.75 points ($94,855 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,620.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,268.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,731.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the CCI reversal from -100 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 830 trades, won 59.4% of them and made 13.25 points ($663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the CCI reversal from -100 strategy took 811 trades, won 57.8% of them and made -3,661.50 points (-$73,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Williams %R backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/williams-r-14. Library name: Williams %R (14). Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Williams %R 14 strategy, Williams percent R strategy, %R oversold overbought, buy when Williams %R 14 crosses above -80, short when Williams %R 14 crosses below -20. ### What it is Williams %R (14 periods) measures where the close sits in the recent high-low range on a 0 to -100 scale. This strategy goes long when %R crosses above -80, short when it crosses below -20, and exits when %R reaches -20 (longs) or -80 (shorts). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams %R strategy took 934 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 56.3% of them and finished -4,283.00 points (-$85,660 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 442 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 62.0% and made -40.75 points (-$815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams %R strategy took 948 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 57.6% of them and finished -483.00 points (-$24,150 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Williams %R strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Williams %R 14 crosses above -80? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Williams %R strategy took 442 long trades, won 62.0% of them and made -40.75 points (-$815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,732.75 points on 1,103 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,304.00 points on 217 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,116.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time Williams %R 14 crosses below -20? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Williams %R strategy took 494 short trades, won 54.7% of them and made -343.25 points (-$17,162 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -116.25 points on 1,129 trades on the 5-minute chart, -247.25 points on 247 trades on the 1-hour chart and 229.75 points on 14 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Williams %R strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams %R strategy on the 15-minute chart took 934 trades, won 56.3% of them and finished -4,283.00 points (-$85,660 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Williams %R (14) on ES futures? A: The Williams %R strategy won 57.6% of its 948 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 64.1% of 2,236 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.9% of 466 trades on the 1-hour chart and 78.6% of 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Williams %R strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams %R strategy made 885.75 points on 2,219 trades on the 5-minute chart, -4,283.00 points on 934 trades on the 15-minute chart, -3,922.50 points on 457 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,468.50 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Williams %R signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -40.75 points on 442 trades (62.0% won) and the short trades made -4,242.25 points on 492 trades (51.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Williams %R strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Williams %R strategy took 934 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,219 on the 5-minute chart, 457 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Williams %R strategy on NQ? A: The Williams %R strategy had a max drawdown of 8,554.75 points ($171,095 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,474.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 5,521.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,483.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Williams %R strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams %R strategy took 948 trades, won 57.6% of them and made -483.00 points (-$24,150 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams %R strategy took 934 trades, won 56.3% of them and made -4,283.00 points (-$85,660 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Rate of change zero cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rate-of-change-12-zero-cross. Library name: Rate of change (12) zero cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: ROC 12 strategy, rate of change strategy, ROC zero line cross, buy when the 12-period rate of change crosses above zero, short when the 12-period rate of change crosses below zero. ### What it is The rate of change (ROC, 12 periods) is the percentage change in price over the last 12 bars. This strategy goes long when the ROC crosses above 0, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 1,629 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.0% of them and finished 1,060.75 points ($21,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 826 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 41.5% and made 21.75 points ($435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 1,600 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 36.7% of them and finished -206.75 points (-$10,337 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the rate of change zero cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 12-period rate of change crosses above zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 826 long trades, won 41.5% of them and made 21.75 points ($435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,365.25 points on 2,516 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,652.00 points on 194 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,907.00 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 12-period rate of change crosses below zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 797 short trades, won 34.3% of them and made -381.25 points (-$19,062 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 787.00 points on 2,398 trades on the 5-minute chart, 101.00 points on 226 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,040.00 points on 41 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the rate of change zero cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the rate of change zero cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,629 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 1,060.75 points ($21,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Rate of change (12) zero cross on ES futures? A: The rate of change zero cross strategy won 36.7% of its 1,600 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 35.3% of 4,786 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.3% of 427 trades on the 1-hour chart and 38.3% of 81 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the rate of change zero cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the rate of change zero cross strategy made 4,394.50 points on 5,029 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,060.75 points on 1,629 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,462.50 points on 405 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,246.75 points on 75 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell rate of change zero cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 21.75 points on 826 trades (41.5% won) and the short trades made 1,039.00 points on 803 trades (38.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the rate of change zero cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The rate of change zero cross strategy took 1,629 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,029 on the 5-minute chart, 405 on the 1-hour chart and 75 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the rate of change zero cross strategy on NQ? A: The rate of change zero cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,276.50 points ($65,530 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,852.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,464.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,227.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the rate of change zero cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 1,600 trades, won 36.7% of them and made -206.75 points (-$10,337 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the rate of change zero cross strategy took 1,629 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 1,060.75 points ($21,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Awesome Oscillator zero cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/awesome-oscillator-zero-cross. Library name: Awesome Oscillator zero cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Awesome Oscillator strategy, AO zero line cross, Bill Williams Awesome Oscillator, buy when the Awesome Oscillator crosses above zero, short when the Awesome Oscillator crosses below zero. ### What it is The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is the difference between a 5-period and a 34-period simple average of bar midpoints. This strategy goes long when the AO crosses above 0, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 512 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.7% of them and finished 801.50 points ($16,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 259 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.0% and made -9.75 points (-$195 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 566 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.2% of them and finished 68.25 points ($3,413 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Awesome Oscillator crosses above zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 259 long trades, won 49.0% of them and made -9.75 points (-$195 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,183.75 points on 793 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,421.75 points on 85 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,762.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Awesome Oscillator crosses below zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 292 short trades, won 43.5% of them and made 314.75 points ($15,738 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 385.75 points on 777 trades on the 5-minute chart, -167.75 points on 105 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,026.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 512 trades, won 45.7% of them and finished 801.50 points ($16,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Awesome Oscillator zero cross on ES futures? A: The Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy won 45.2% of its 566 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.1% of 1,558 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.2% of 197 trades on the 1-hour chart and 18.2% of 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy made 4,123.25 points on 1,590 trades on the 5-minute chart, 801.50 points on 512 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,941.00 points on 178 trades on the 1-hour chart and -906.50 points on 26 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Awesome Oscillator zero cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -9.75 points on 259 trades (49.0% won) and the short trades made 811.25 points on 253 trades (42.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 512 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,590 on the 5-minute chart, 178 on the 1-hour chart and 26 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy on NQ? A: The Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,204.00 points ($64,080 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,962.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,229.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,546.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 566 trades, won 45.2% of them and made 68.25 points ($3,413 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Awesome Oscillator zero cross strategy took 512 trades, won 45.7% of them and made 801.50 points ($16,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## TRIX signal cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/trix-15-9-signal-cross. Library name: TRIX (15, 9) signal cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: TRIX 15 9 strategy, TRIX crossover, TRIX indicator strategy, buy when TRIX crosses above its signal line, short when TRIX crosses below its signal line. ### What it is TRIX (15, 9) is the rate of change of a triple-smoothed exponential moving average, compared with its own 9-period signal line. This strategy goes long when TRIX crosses above its signal, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 646 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.7% of them and finished -2,371.75 points (-$47,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 329 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.2% and made -1,075.50 points (-$21,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 670 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.2% of them and finished -11.50 points (-$575 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the TRIX signal cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time TRIX crosses above its signal line? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 329 long trades, won 46.2% of them and made -1,075.50 points (-$21,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,330.50 points on 897 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,666.25 points on 96 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,066.50 points on 16 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time TRIX crosses below its signal line? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 333 short trades, won 44.4% of them and made 311.00 points ($15,550 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 582.00 points on 904 trades on the 5-minute chart, 159.25 points on 102 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,596.00 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the TRIX signal cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the TRIX signal cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 646 trades, won 45.7% of them and finished -2,371.75 points (-$47,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of TRIX (15, 9) signal cross on ES futures? A: The TRIX signal cross strategy won 45.2% of its 670 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 44.3% of 1,782 trades on the 5-minute chart, 52.2% of 203 trades on the 1-hour chart and 30.8% of 26 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the TRIX signal cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the TRIX signal cross strategy made 3,321.50 points on 1,814 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,371.75 points on 646 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,364.25 points on 188 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,833.50 points on 32 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell TRIX signal cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,075.50 points on 329 trades (46.2% won) and the short trades made -1,296.25 points on 317 trades (45.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the TRIX signal cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The TRIX signal cross strategy took 646 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,814 on the 5-minute chart, 188 on the 1-hour chart and 32 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the TRIX signal cross strategy on NQ? A: The TRIX signal cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,990.50 points ($79,810 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,164.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,245.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 8,979.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the TRIX signal cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 670 trades, won 45.2% of them and made -11.50 points (-$575 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the TRIX signal cross strategy took 646 trades, won 45.7% of them and made -2,371.75 points (-$47,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Money Flow Index 20/80 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/money-flow-index-14-20-80. Library name: Money Flow Index (14) 20 / 80. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: MFI 20 80 strategy, MFI 14 strategy, money flow index oversold overbought, buy when the Money Flow Index crosses back above 20, short when the Money Flow Index crosses back below 80. ### What it is The money flow index (MFI, 14 periods) is a volume-weighted version of the RSI on a 0 to 100 scale. This strategy goes long when the MFI crosses back above 20, short when it crosses back below 80, and exits when the MFI reaches 80 (longs) or 20 (shorts). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 413 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 52.5% of them and finished -1,997.50 points (-$39,950 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 199 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 57.3% and made -2,306.75 points (-$46,135 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 440 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.8% of them and finished 327.75 points ($16,388 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Money Flow Index crosses back above 20? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 199 long trades, won 57.3% of them and made -2,306.75 points (-$46,135 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -26.75 points on 305 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,525.00 points on 139 trades on the 1-hour chart and 784.75 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Money Flow Index crosses back below 80? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 232 short trades, won 46.1% of them and made 124.50 points ($6,225 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -82.75 points on 354 trades on the 5-minute chart, -121.75 points on 147 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,676.50 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 413 trades, won 52.5% of them and finished -1,997.50 points (-$39,950 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Money Flow Index (14) 20 / 80 on ES futures? A: The Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy won 49.8% of its 440 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 52.4% of 677 trades on the 5-minute chart, 45.6% of 292 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.0% of 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy made -3,361.00 points on 637 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,997.50 points on 413 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,078.75 points on 270 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,544.00 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Money Flow Index 20/80 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,306.75 points on 199 trades (57.3% won) and the short trades made 309.25 points on 214 trades (48.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 413 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 637 on the 5-minute chart, 270 on the 1-hour chart and 5 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy on NQ? A: The Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy had a max drawdown of 4,212.00 points ($84,240 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,942.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,168.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,729.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 440 trades, won 49.8% of them and made 327.75 points ($16,388 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Money Flow Index 20/80 strategy took 413 trades, won 52.5% of them and made -1,997.50 points (-$39,950 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ultimate-oscillator-30-70. Library name: Ultimate Oscillator 30 / 70. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Ultimate Oscillator strategy, UO 30 70, Larry Williams Ultimate Oscillator, buy when the Ultimate Oscillator crosses back above 30, short when the Ultimate Oscillator crosses back below 70. ### What it is The Ultimate Oscillator (UO) combines buying pressure over three time periods into one 0 to 100 reading. This strategy goes long when the UO crosses back above 30, short when it crosses back below 70, and exits when the UO reaches 70 (longs) or 30 (shorts). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 226 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.0% of them and finished -3,393.75 points (-$67,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 75 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 52.0% and made -2,461.00 points (-$49,220 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 220 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 47.3% of them and finished -586.00 points (-$29,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Ultimate Oscillator crosses back above 30? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 75 long trades, won 52.0% of them and made -2,461.00 points (-$49,220 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -876.50 points on 157 trades on the 5-minute chart, -178.50 points on 28 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,169.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Ultimate Oscillator crosses back below 70? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 142 short trades, won 45.1% of them and made -347.00 points (-$17,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -243.00 points on 258 trades on the 5-minute chart, 137.50 points on 57 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,023.00 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 226 trades, won 46.0% of them and finished -3,393.75 points (-$67,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Ultimate Oscillator 30 / 70 on ES futures? A: The Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy won 47.3% of its 220 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 51.7% of 424 trades on the 5-minute chart, 53.8% of 80 trades on the 1-hour chart and 66.7% of 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy made -2,648.75 points on 425 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,393.75 points on 226 trades on the 15-minute chart, 677.75 points on 86 trades on the 1-hour chart and -3,526.00 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,461.00 points on 75 trades (52.0% won) and the short trades made -932.75 points on 151 trades (43.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 226 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 425 on the 5-minute chart, 86 on the 1-hour chart and 3 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy on NQ? A: The Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy had a max drawdown of 4,386.25 points ($87,725 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,742.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,592.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 10,084.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 220 trades, won 47.3% of them and made -586.00 points (-$29,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ultimate Oscillator 30/70 strategy took 226 trades, won 46.0% of them and made -3,393.75 points (-$67,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Fisher Transform cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/fisher-transform-9-cross. Library name: Fisher Transform (9) cross. Family: Momentum oscillators. Also called: Fisher Transform 9 strategy, Fisher indicator crossover, Ehlers Fisher Transform, buy when the Fisher Transform crosses above its trigger line, short when the Fisher Transform crosses below its trigger line. ### What it is The Fisher Transform (9 periods) converts price into a roughly normal distribution so turning points stand out, and its trigger line is the prior value. This strategy goes long when the Fisher crosses above its trigger, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 1,258 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.6% and made -862.25 points (-$17,245 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,479 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.2% of them and finished 780.50 points ($39,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Fisher Transform cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Fisher Transform crosses above its trigger line? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 1,258 long trades, won 42.6% of them and made -862.25 points (-$17,245 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 23.25 points on 3,633 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,019.75 points on 308 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,012.50 points on 51 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Fisher Transform crosses below its trigger line? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 1,246 short trades, won 40.0% of them and made 413.25 points ($20,663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -541.75 points on 3,666 trades on the 5-minute chart, 112.00 points on 325 trades on the 1-hour chart and -969.50 points on 44 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Fisher Transform cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 2,525 trades, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Fisher Transform (9) cross on ES futures? A: The Fisher Transform cross strategy won 41.2% of its 2,479 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.2% of 7,305 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.6% of 636 trades on the 1-hour chart and 38.6% of 88 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Fisher Transform cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy made -4,807.75 points on 7,273 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,768.75 points on 2,525 trades on the 15-minute chart, 135.50 points on 594 trades on the 1-hour chart and -6,884.75 points on 101 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Fisher Transform cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -862.25 points on 1,258 trades (42.6% won) and the short trades made -906.50 points on 1,267 trades (38.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Fisher Transform cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 7,273 on the 5-minute chart, 594 on the 1-hour chart and 101 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Fisher Transform cross strategy on NQ? A: The Fisher Transform cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,832.00 points ($96,640 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 9,970.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,029.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 8,122.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Fisher Transform cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,479 trades, won 41.2% of them and made 780.50 points ($39,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades, won 40.7% of them and made -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Engulfing candle backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/engulfing-candle. Library name: Engulfing candle. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: bullish engulfing pattern, bearish engulfing pattern, engulfing candle strategy, buy a bullish engulfing candle, buy when a bullish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open), short when a bearish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open). ### What it is An engulfing candle is a candle whose body covers the whole body of the previous candle. This strategy goes long at the next open after a bullish engulfing candle and short after a bearish one, with the stop 1 tick beyond the pattern and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the engulfing candle strategy took 1,010 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.0% of them and finished 2,139.00 points ($42,780 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 509 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 40.7% and made 292.00 points ($5,840 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the engulfing candle strategy took 1,140 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.5% of them and finished 339.75 points ($16,988 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the engulfing candle strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a bullish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the engulfing candle strategy took 509 long trades, won 40.7% of them and made 292.00 points ($5,840 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 196.00 points on 1,257 trades on the 5-minute chart, 538.75 points on 166 trades on the 1-hour chart and 7,179.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a bearish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the engulfing candle strategy took 557 short trades, won 38.4% of them and made 406.50 points ($20,325 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 314.50 points on 1,539 trades on the 5-minute chart, -440.25 points on 203 trades on the 1-hour chart and -32.75 points on 15 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the engulfing candle strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the engulfing candle strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,010 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 2,139.00 points ($42,780 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Engulfing candle on ES futures? A: The engulfing candle strategy won 39.5% of its 1,140 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.0% of 3,039 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.3% of 439 trades on the 1-hour chart and 25.0% of 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the engulfing candle strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the engulfing candle strategy made 160.50 points on 2,585 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,139.00 points on 1,010 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,863.75 points on 342 trades on the 1-hour chart and 10,469.75 points on 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell engulfing candle signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 292.00 points on 509 trades (40.7% won) and the short trades made 1,847.00 points on 501 trades (39.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the engulfing candle strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The engulfing candle strategy took 1,010 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,585 on the 5-minute chart, 342 on the 1-hour chart and 25 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the engulfing candle strategy on NQ? A: The engulfing candle strategy had a max drawdown of 3,368.50 points ($67,370 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,880.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,438.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 1,733.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the engulfing candle strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the engulfing candle strategy took 1,140 trades, won 39.5% of them and made 339.75 points ($16,988 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the engulfing candle strategy took 1,010 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 2,139.00 points ($42,780 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Hammer and shooting star backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hammer-shooting-star. Library name: Hammer / shooting star. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: hammer candle strategy, shooting star candle strategy, hammer candlestick pattern, buy when a hammer forms at a 10-bar low, short when a shooting star forms at a 10-bar high. ### What it is A hammer has its body in the top third of the bar with a lower wick at least 2x the body, and a shooting star is the mirror. This strategy goes long on a hammer at a 10-bar low and short on a shooting star at a 10-bar high, with the stop beyond the wick and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.6% of them and finished -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 184 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.6% and made -1,002.25 points (-$20,045 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 357 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.9% of them and finished 52.25 points ($2,613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the hammer and shooting star strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a hammer forms at a 10-bar low? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 184 long trades, won 38.6% of them and made -1,002.25 points (-$20,045 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,239.50 points on 518 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,192.00 points on 74 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,478.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a shooting star forms at a 10-bar high? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 185 short trades, won 37.3% of them and made -92.25 points (-$4,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -256.25 points on 436 trades on the 5-minute chart, 146.50 points on 48 trades on the 1-hour chart and -167.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the hammer and shooting star strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy on the 15-minute chart took 348 trades, won 35.6% of them and finished -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Hammer / shooting star on ES futures? A: The hammer and shooting star strategy won 38.9% of its 357 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 31.8% of 944 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.0% of 118 trades on the 1-hour chart and 27.3% of 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the hammer and shooting star strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy made -1,685.00 points on 992 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,930.25 points on 348 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,417.00 points on 124 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,066.50 points on 17 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell hammer and shooting star signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,002.25 points on 184 trades (38.6% won) and the short trades made -1,928.00 points on 164 trades (32.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the hammer and shooting star strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 992 on the 5-minute chart, 124 on the 1-hour chart and 17 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the hammer and shooting star strategy on NQ? A: The hammer and shooting star strategy had a max drawdown of 3,761.25 points ($75,225 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,411.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 640.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,037.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the hammer and shooting star strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 357 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 52.25 points ($2,613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades, won 35.6% of them and made -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Morning star and evening star backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/morning-star-evening-star. Library name: Morning star / evening star. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: morning star pattern, evening star pattern, morning star candlestick strategy, buy when a morning star forms, short when an evening star forms. ### What it is A morning star is a three-candle bullish reversal pattern, and an evening star is its bearish mirror. This strategy goes long after a morning star and short after an evening star, with the stop beyond the pattern and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.4% of them and finished -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 236 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 44.9% and made -882.00 points (-$17,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the morning star and evening star strategy took 572 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.1% of them and finished -356.00 points (-$17,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the morning star and evening star strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a morning star forms? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the morning star and evening star strategy took 236 long trades, won 44.9% of them and made -882.00 points (-$17,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,238.75 points on 722 trades on the 5-minute chart, -320.25 points on 90 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,496.00 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time an evening star forms? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the morning star and evening star strategy took 290 short trades, won 35.2% of them and made -462.75 points (-$23,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 99.50 points on 720 trades on the 5-minute chart, 205.75 points on 92 trades on the 1-hour chart and 332.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the morning star and evening star strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy on the 15-minute chart took 530 trades, won 37.4% of them and finished -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Morning star / evening star on ES futures? A: The morning star and evening star strategy won 38.1% of its 572 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.2% of 1,481 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.0% of 156 trades on the 1-hour chart and 45.5% of 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the morning star and evening star strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy made -2,386.00 points on 1,432 trades on the 5-minute chart, -4,396.00 points on 530 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,485.25 points on 166 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,349.75 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell morning star and evening star signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -882.00 points on 236 trades (44.9% won) and the short trades made -3,514.00 points on 294 trades (31.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the morning star and evening star strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,432 on the 5-minute chart, 166 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the morning star and evening star strategy on NQ? A: The morning star and evening star strategy had a max drawdown of 5,887.50 points ($117,750 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,738.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 755.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,437.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the morning star and evening star strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the morning star and evening star strategy took 572 trades, won 38.1% of them and made -356.00 points (-$17,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades, won 37.4% of them and made -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Three white soldiers and three black crows backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-white-soldiers-three-black-crows. Library name: Three white soldiers / three black crows. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: three white soldiers pattern, three black crows pattern, three soldiers candlestick strategy, buy when three white soldiers form, short when three black crows form. ### What it is Three white soldiers are three up candles in a row, each closing higher than the last, and three black crows are three down candles in a row, each closing lower than the last. This strategy goes long after three white soldiers and short after three black crows, with the stop beyond the pattern and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 517 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.4% of them and finished 5,041.75 points ($100,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 284 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 48.6% and made 1,461.75 points ($29,235 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 722 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.9% of them and finished -73.75 points (-$3,687 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time three white soldiers form? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 284 long trades, won 48.6% of them and made 1,461.75 points ($29,235 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 545.00 points on 610 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,545.25 points on 107 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,664.50 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time three black crows form? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 340 short trades, won 42.9% of them and made 143.25 points ($7,163 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 81.00 points on 735 trades on the 5-minute chart, -495.75 points on 125 trades on the 1-hour chart and -580.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy on the 15-minute chart took 517 trades, won 48.4% of them and finished 5,041.75 points ($100,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Three white soldiers / three black crows on ES futures? A: The three white soldiers and three black crows strategy won 44.9% of its 722 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.0% of 1,482 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.6% of 286 trades on the 1-hour chart and 38.5% of 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy made 3,535.75 points on 1,178 trades on the 5-minute chart, 5,041.75 points on 517 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,954.75 points on 193 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,027.00 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell three white soldiers and three black crows signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,461.75 points on 284 trades (48.6% won) and the short trades made 3,580.00 points on 233 trades (48.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 517 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,178 on the 5-minute chart, 193 on the 1-hour chart and 11 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy on NQ? A: The three white soldiers and three black crows strategy had a max drawdown of 2,096.50 points ($41,930 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,805.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 842.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,670.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 722 trades, won 44.9% of them and made -73.75 points (-$3,687 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three white soldiers and three black crows strategy took 517 trades, won 48.4% of them and made 5,041.75 points ($100,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Pin bar at the 20 EMA backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/pin-bar-at-ema-20-in-a-trend. Library name: Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: pin bar strategy, pin bar trend strategy, pin bar pullback, buy when a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA, short when a bearish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is below the 50 EMA. ### What it is A pin bar is a candle with a long wick that rejects a price level. With price above the EMA 50, this strategy goes long on a bullish pin bar whose wick touches the EMA 20 (short on the mirror), with the stop beyond the wick and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 33.9% of them and finished -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 94 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 30.9% and made -765.25 points (-$15,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 181 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 33.7% of them and finished -310.50 points (-$15,525 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 94 long trades, won 30.9% of them and made -765.25 points (-$15,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 217.25 points on 289 trades on the 5-minute chart, 536.25 points on 46 trades on the 1-hour chart and -154.00 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a bearish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is below the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 68 short trades, won 32.4% of them and made -180.00 points (-$9,000 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 17.75 points on 196 trades on the 5-minute chart, 212.25 points on 20 trades on the 1-hour chart and -91.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 165 trades, won 33.9% of them and finished -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend on ES futures? A: The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy won 33.7% of its 181 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.5% of 470 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.8% of 63 trades on the 1-hour chart and 50.0% of 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy made 80.25 points on 493 trades on the 5-minute chart, -621.00 points on 165 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,190.75 points on 63 trades on the 1-hour chart and -154.00 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell pin bar at the 20 EMA signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -765.25 points on 94 trades (30.9% won) and the short trades made 144.25 points on 71 trades (38.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 493 on the 5-minute chart, 63 on the 1-hour chart and 6 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on NQ? A: The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy had a max drawdown of 1,367.25 points ($27,345 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,873.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 469.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 884.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 181 trades, won 33.7% of them and made -310.50 points (-$15,525 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades, won 33.9% of them and made -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Doji at a 20-bar extreme backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/doji-at-a-20-bar-extreme. Library name: Doji at a 20-bar extreme. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: doji reversal strategy, doji candle strategy, doji at the low, buy when the bar after a doji at a 20-bar low breaks the doji's high, short when the bar after a doji at a 20-bar high breaks the doji's low. ### What it is A doji is a candle whose open and close are nearly equal. This strategy goes long when the bar after a doji at a 20-bar low breaks the doji's high (short on the mirror), with the stop beyond the doji and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 89 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.8% of them and finished -1,028.25 points (-$20,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 39 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.3% and made -428.50 points (-$8,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 105 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.0% of them and finished 64.00 points ($3,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the bar after a doji at a 20-bar low breaks the doji's high? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 39 long trades, won 51.3% of them and made -428.50 points (-$8,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -892.00 points on 108 trades on the 5-minute chart, -105.50 points on 17 trades on the 1-hour chart and 764.00 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the bar after a doji at a 20-bar high breaks the doji's low? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 63 short trades, won 39.7% of them and made 63.00 points ($3,150 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -261.00 points on 139 trades on the 5-minute chart, 24.50 points on 9 trades on the 1-hour chart and 158.00 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy on the 15-minute chart took 89 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished -1,028.25 points (-$20,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Doji at a 20-bar extreme on ES futures? A: The doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy won 41.0% of its 105 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 29.2% of 243 trades on the 5-minute chart, 42.3% of 26 trades on the 1-hour chart and 100.0% of 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy made -1,769.25 points on 232 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,028.25 points on 89 trades on the 15-minute chart, 238.00 points on 36 trades on the 1-hour chart and 418.50 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell doji at a 20-bar extreme signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -428.50 points on 39 trades (51.3% won) and the short trades made -599.75 points on 50 trades (38.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 89 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 232 on the 5-minute chart, 36 on the 1-hour chart and 3 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy on NQ? A: The doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy had a max drawdown of 1,281.50 points ($25,630 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,227.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 321.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 923.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 105 trades, won 41.0% of them and made 64.00 points ($3,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the doji at a 20-bar extreme strategy took 89 trades, won 43.8% of them and made -1,028.25 points (-$20,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Fair value gap retrace backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/fair-value-gap-retrace. Library name: Fair value gap retrace. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: fair value gap strategy, FVG strategy, imbalance retrace strategy, buy when price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap, short when price first retraces into a bearish 3-candle fair value gap. ### What it is A fair value gap is a 3-candle gap in which the high of candle 1 is below the low of candle 3. This strategy goes long on the first retrace into the gap (short on the mirror), with the stop under candle 1's low and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.5% of them and finished 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 634 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 41.8% and made 1,395.75 points ($27,915 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,241 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.4% of them and finished 1,173.00 points ($58,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the fair value gap retrace strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 634 long trades, won 41.8% of them and made 1,395.75 points ($27,915 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,847.75 points on 1,331 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,708.00 points on 262 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,183.50 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first retraces into a bearish 3-candle fair value gap? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 548 short trades, won 39.6% of them and made 385.25 points ($19,263 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 424.50 points on 1,204 trades on the 5-minute chart, -150.25 points on 211 trades on the 1-hour chart and -543.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the fair value gap retrace strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,146 trades, won 40.5% of them and finished 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Fair value gap retrace on ES futures? A: The fair value gap retrace strategy won 41.4% of its 1,241 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.1% of 2,626 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.8% of 472 trades on the 1-hour chart and 32.3% of 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the fair value gap retrace strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy made 4,657.00 points on 2,502 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,210.50 points on 1,146 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,705.75 points on 472 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,709.00 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell fair value gap retrace signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,395.75 points on 634 trades (41.8% won) and the short trades made -185.25 points on 512 trades (38.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the fair value gap retrace strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,502 on the 5-minute chart, 472 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the fair value gap retrace strategy on NQ? A: The fair value gap retrace strategy had a max drawdown of 6,402.25 points ($128,045 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,587.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,129.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,373.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the fair value gap retrace strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,241 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 1,173.00 points ($58,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades, won 40.5% of them and made 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Fractal breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/fractal-breakout. Library name: Fractal breakout. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: Williams fractal strategy, 5 bar fractal breakout, fractal high breakout, buy when price breaks above the last 5-bar fractal high, short when price breaks below the last 5-bar fractal low. ### What it is A fractal is a 5-bar pattern whose middle bar holds the highest high or lowest low. This strategy goes long on a break of the last fractal high and short on a break of the last fractal low, with the stop at the opposite fractal and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fractal breakout strategy took 708 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.6% of them and finished 7,682.25 points ($153,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 384 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 52.6% and made 4,224.50 points ($84,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fractal breakout strategy took 745 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.2% of them and finished 691.75 points ($34,588 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the fractal breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the last 5-bar fractal high? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the fractal breakout strategy took 384 long trades, won 52.6% of them and made 4,224.50 points ($84,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -800.25 points on 624 trades on the 5-minute chart, 991.50 points on 203 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,675.75 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the last 5-bar fractal low? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the fractal breakout strategy took 350 short trades, won 44.3% of them and made 393.75 points ($19,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 656.50 points on 563 trades on the 5-minute chart, 693.50 points on 196 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,114.50 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the fractal breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fractal breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 708 trades, won 49.6% of them and finished 7,682.25 points ($153,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Fractal breakout on ES futures? A: The fractal breakout strategy won 45.2% of its 745 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 43.1% of 1,181 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.3% of 398 trades on the 1-hour chart and 20.0% of 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the fractal breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fractal breakout strategy made -3,706.75 points on 1,189 trades on the 5-minute chart, 7,682.25 points on 708 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,271.00 points on 384 trades on the 1-hour chart and 211.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell fractal breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 4,224.50 points on 384 trades (52.6% won) and the short trades made 3,457.75 points on 324 trades (46.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the fractal breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The fractal breakout strategy took 708 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,189 on the 5-minute chart, 384 on the 1-hour chart and 11 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the fractal breakout strategy on NQ? A: The fractal breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,586.00 points ($51,720 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 10,125.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,088.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,676.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the fractal breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fractal breakout strategy took 745 trades, won 45.2% of them and made 691.75 points ($34,588 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fractal breakout strategy took 708 trades, won 49.6% of them and made 7,682.25 points ($153,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Outside bar reversal backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/outside-bar-reversal. Library name: Outside bar reversal. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: outside bar strategy, outside bar pattern, buy when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%, short when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its bottom 25%. ### What it is An outside bar is a bar whose range engulfs the range of the prior bar. This strategy goes long at the next open after an outside bar that closes in its top 25% (mirror for shorts), with the stop beyond the bar and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 320 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.8% and made 1,599.00 points ($31,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the outside bar reversal strategy took 606 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.4% of them and finished -278.75 points (-$13,937 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the outside bar reversal strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the outside bar reversal strategy took 320 long trades, won 42.8% of them and made 1,599.00 points ($31,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 98.00 points on 779 trades on the 5-minute chart, -275.50 points on 112 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,268.50 points on 14 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its bottom 25%? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the outside bar reversal strategy took 282 short trades, won 39.7% of them and made -156.25 points (-$7,812 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -483.00 points on 727 trades on the 5-minute chart, -475.00 points on 102 trades on the 1-hour chart and 69.00 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the outside bar reversal strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy on the 15-minute chart took 624 trades, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Outside bar reversal on ES futures? A: The outside bar reversal strategy won 39.4% of its 606 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.7% of 1,471 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.6% of 229 trades on the 1-hour chart and 35.0% of 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the outside bar reversal strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy made -1,622.50 points on 1,539 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,561.50 points on 624 trades on the 15-minute chart, -251.00 points on 215 trades on the 1-hour chart and 7,529.25 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell outside bar reversal signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,599.00 points on 320 trades (42.8% won) and the short trades made -37.50 points on 304 trades (41.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the outside bar reversal strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,539 on the 5-minute chart, 215 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the outside bar reversal strategy on NQ? A: The outside bar reversal strategy had a max drawdown of 3,096.50 points ($61,930 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,873.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,750.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,341.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the outside bar reversal strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the outside bar reversal strategy took 606 trades, won 39.4% of them and made -278.75 points (-$13,937 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades, won 42.2% of them and made 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Key reversal bar backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/key-reversal-bar. Library name: Key reversal bar. Family: Candles and price action. Also called: key reversal strategy, key reversal bar pattern, 20 bar low reversal, buy when a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close, short when a new 20-bar high is followed by a close below the prior close. ### What it is A key reversal bar makes a new 20-bar low and then closes above the prior close. This strategy goes long on that signal (mirror for shorts), with the stop beyond the bar's extreme and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.7% of them and finished -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 367 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.7% and made 314.25 points ($6,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the key reversal bar strategy took 800 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 36.1% of them and finished -4.00 points (-$200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the key reversal bar strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the key reversal bar strategy took 367 long trades, won 38.7% of them and made 314.25 points ($6,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 239.25 points on 1,003 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,291.50 points on 131 trades on the 1-hour chart and 981.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a new 20-bar high is followed by a close below the prior close? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the key reversal bar strategy took 425 short trades, won 35.1% of them and made -353.00 points (-$17,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -404.75 points on 981 trades on the 5-minute chart, 103.25 points on 185 trades on the 1-hour chart and -330.00 points on 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the key reversal bar strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy on the 15-minute chart took 805 trades, won 35.7% of them and finished -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Key reversal bar on ES futures? A: The key reversal bar strategy won 36.1% of its 800 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 32.1% of 1,919 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.7% of 309 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 42 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the key reversal bar strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy made 810.00 points on 2,152 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,541.75 points on 805 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,556.00 points on 314 trades on the 1-hour chart and 710.50 points on 43 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell key reversal bar signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 314.25 points on 367 trades (38.7% won) and the short trades made -1,856.00 points on 438 trades (33.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the key reversal bar strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,152 on the 5-minute chart, 314 on the 1-hour chart and 43 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the key reversal bar strategy on NQ? A: The key reversal bar strategy had a max drawdown of 3,553.50 points ($71,070 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,316.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,336.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,045.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the key reversal bar strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the key reversal bar strategy took 800 trades, won 36.1% of them and made -4.00 points (-$200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades, won 35.7% of them and made -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-cross-with-a-200-ema-filter. Library name: MACD cross with a 200 EMA filter. Family: Popular combos. Also called: MACD 200 EMA strategy, MACD with trend filter, MACD and 200 EMA, buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line while price is above the 200 EMA, short when the MACD line crosses below the signal line while price is below the 200 EMA. ### What it is This is the MACD signal-line cross (12, 26, 9) with a trend filter: longs only when price is above the EMA 200 and shorts only when it is below. It exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 505 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.6% of them and finished 40.00 points ($800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 279 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 45.5% and made 1,637.75 points ($32,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 541 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.2% of them and finished -86.00 points (-$4,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD line crosses above the signal line while price is above the 200 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 279 long trades, won 45.5% of them and made 1,637.75 points ($32,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,914.75 points on 828 trades on the 5-minute chart, -213.25 points on 110 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,981.25 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the MACD line crosses below the signal line while price is below the 200 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 233 short trades, won 38.2% of them and made -174.00 points (-$8,700 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -89.50 points on 704 trades on the 5-minute chart, 85.25 points on 75 trades on the 1-hour chart and -8.75 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 505 trades, won 41.6% of them and finished 40.00 points ($800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of MACD cross with a 200 EMA filter on ES futures? A: The MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy won 41.2% of its 541 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.5% of 1,498 trades on the 5-minute chart, 45.7% of 184 trades on the 1-hour chart and 30.0% of 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy made 2,747.00 points on 1,539 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.00 points on 505 trades on the 15-minute chart, 310.75 points on 171 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,863.75 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,637.75 points on 279 trades (45.5% won) and the short trades made -1,597.75 points on 226 trades (36.7% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 505 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,539 on the 5-minute chart, 171 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy on NQ? A: The MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy had a max drawdown of 3,866.75 points ($77,335 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,792.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,241.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,419.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 541 trades, won 41.2% of them and made -86.00 points (-$4,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with a 200 EMA filter strategy took 505 trades, won 41.6% of them and made 40.00 points ($800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/rsi-30-70-with-a-200-sma-filter. Library name: RSI 30 / 70 with a 200 SMA filter. Family: Popular combos. Also called: RSI and 200 SMA strategy, RSI with trend filter, RSI 30 70 200 SMA, buy when RSI 14 crosses back above 30 while price is above the 200 SMA, short when RSI 14 crosses back below 70 while price is below the 200 SMA. ### What it is This is the RSI 30/70 strategy with a trend filter: longs only when price is above the SMA 200 and shorts only when it is below. It exits when RSI reaches the other level. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 66 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 54.6% of them and finished -1,010.75 points (-$20,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 42 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 59.5% and made -515.25 points (-$10,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 66 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 56.1% of them and finished 52.00 points ($2,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 crosses back above 30 while price is above the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 42 long trades, won 59.5% of them and made -515.25 points (-$10,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,596.00 points on 40 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,151.50 points on 19 trades on the 1-hour chart and 299.75 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time RSI 14 crosses back below 70 while price is below the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 24 short trades, won 62.5% of them and made 158.75 points ($7,938 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -96.50 points on 26 trades on the 5-minute chart, -50.75 points on 10 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 66 trades, won 54.6% of them and finished -1,010.75 points (-$20,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of RSI 30 / 70 with a 200 SMA filter on ES futures? A: The RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy won 56.1% of its 66 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 53.0% of 66 trades on the 5-minute chart and 47.8% of 23 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy made 2,393.25 points on 70 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,010.75 points on 66 trades on the 15-minute chart, 481.00 points on 30 trades on the 1-hour chart and 299.75 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -515.25 points on 42 trades (59.5% won) and the short trades made -495.50 points on 24 trades (45.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 66 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 70 on the 5-minute chart, 30 on the 1-hour chart and 1 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy on NQ? A: The RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy had a max drawdown of 1,772.50 points ($35,450 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 807.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 302.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 66 trades, won 56.1% of them and made 52.00 points ($2,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the RSI 30/70 with a 200 SMA filter strategy took 66 trades, won 54.6% of them and made -1,010.75 points (-$20,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-9-21-with-a-vwap-filter. Library name: EMA 9 / 21 with a VWAP filter. Family: Popular combos. Also called: EMA cross VWAP filter, 9 21 EMA and VWAP strategy, EMA crossover with VWAP, buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA while price is above VWAP, short when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA while price is below VWAP. ### What it is This is the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter: longs only when price is above the session VWAP and shorts only when it is below. It exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 528 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,068.50 points ($21,370 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 279 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 44.4% and made -150.50 points (-$3,010 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 587 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.7% of them and finished 13.50 points ($675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute and 1-hour results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA while price is above VWAP? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 279 long trades, won 44.4% of them and made -150.50 points (-$3,010 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,589.75 points on 588 trades on the 5-minute chart and 1,232.75 points on 93 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA while price is below VWAP? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 293 short trades, won 41.3% of them and made -47.50 points (-$2,375 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 108.25 points on 530 trades on the 5-minute chart and 118.25 points on 112 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 528 trades, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,068.50 points ($21,370 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 9 / 21 with a VWAP filter on ES futures? A: The EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy won 41.7% of its 587 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.5% of 1,130 trades on the 5-minute chart and 49.3% of 207 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute or 1-hour chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy made 2,032.25 points on 1,106 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,068.50 points on 528 trades on the 15-minute chart and 2,467.25 points on 197 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -150.50 points on 279 trades (44.4% won) and the short trades made 1,219.00 points on 249 trades (39.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 528 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,106 on the 5-minute chart and 197 on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy on NQ? A: The EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy had a max drawdown of 3,388.75 points ($67,775 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,115.00 points on the 5-minute chart and 1,645.00 points on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 587 trades, won 41.7% of them and made 13.50 points ($675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross with a VWAP filter strategy took 528 trades, won 42.2% of them and made 1,068.50 points ($21,370 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/stochastic-with-an-ema-50-trend-filter. Library name: Stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter. Family: Popular combos. Also called: stochastic and 50 EMA strategy, stochastic trend filter, stochastic EMA 50, buy when the Stochastic %K crosses above %D below 20 while price is above the 50 EMA, short when the Stochastic %K crosses below %D above 80 while price is below the 50 EMA. ### What it is This is the stochastic (14, 3, 3) zone cross with a trend filter: longs only when price is above the EMA 50 and shorts only when it is below. It exits on the opposite zone cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 39 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.2% of them and finished 492.25 points ($9,845 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 8 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 62.5% and made 175.25 points ($3,505 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 42 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 50.0% of them and finished -152.50 points (-$7,625 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Stochastic %K crosses above %D below 20 while price is above the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 8 long trades, won 62.5% of them and made 175.25 points ($3,505 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 183.25 points on 63 trades on the 5-minute chart, 543.25 points on 6 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Stochastic %K crosses below %D above 80 while price is below the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 28 short trades, won 60.7% of them and made 117.75 points ($5,888 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -51.00 points on 104 trades on the 5-minute chart, -140.50 points on 7 trades on the 1-hour chart and -730.50 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 39 trades, won 46.2% of them and finished 492.25 points ($9,845 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter on ES futures? A: The stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy won 50.0% of its 42 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 54.6% of 163 trades on the 5-minute chart, 36.4% of 11 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.0% of 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy made -389.25 points on 174 trades on the 5-minute chart, 492.25 points on 39 trades on the 15-minute chart, -318.25 points on 10 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,794.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 175.25 points on 8 trades (62.5% won) and the short trades made 317.00 points on 31 trades (41.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 39 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 174 on the 5-minute chart, 10 on the 1-hour chart and 1 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy on NQ? A: The stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy had a max drawdown of 398.50 points ($7,970 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,643.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 903.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 42 trades, won 50.0% of them and made -152.50 points (-$7,625 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the stochastic with an EMA 50 trend filter strategy took 39 trades, won 46.2% of them and made 492.25 points ($9,845 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Bollinger Bands with RSI backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/bollinger-band-plus-rsi. Library name: Bollinger band plus RSI. Family: Popular combos. Also called: Bollinger Bands and RSI strategy, Bollinger RSI combo, Bollinger Bands RSI 30 70, buy when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band while RSI 14 is below 30, short when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band while RSI 14 is above 70. ### What it is This strategy combines Bollinger Bands (20, 2) with the RSI (14): long on a close below the lower band with RSI below 30, short on a close above the upper band with RSI above 70. It exits on a touch of the middle band. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 345 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 56.8% of them and finished -3,175.50 points (-$63,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 181 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 62.4% and made -1,487.00 points (-$29,740 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 353 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 54.7% of them and finished -575.25 points (-$28,762 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band while RSI 14 is below 30? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 181 long trades, won 62.4% of them and made -1,487.00 points (-$29,740 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,526.25 points on 332 trades on the 5-minute chart, 17.50 points on 80 trades on the 1-hour chart and 945.50 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band while RSI 14 is above 70? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 173 short trades, won 56.7% of them and made 37.50 points ($1,875 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 9.00 points on 314 trades on the 5-minute chart, -130.50 points on 93 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4.50 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy on the 15-minute chart took 345 trades, won 56.8% of them and finished -3,175.50 points (-$63,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Bollinger band plus RSI on ES futures? A: The Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy won 54.7% of its 353 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 63.2% of 646 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.3% of 171 trades on the 1-hour chart and 60.0% of 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy made -4,120.00 points on 617 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,175.50 points on 345 trades on the 15-minute chart, -920.50 points on 176 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,147.00 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands with RSI signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,487.00 points on 181 trades (62.4% won) and the short trades made -1,688.50 points on 164 trades (50.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 345 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 617 on the 5-minute chart, 176 on the 1-hour chart and 7 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy on NQ? A: The Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy had a max drawdown of 4,124.25 points ($82,485 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,058.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,675.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,424.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 353 trades, won 54.7% of them and made -575.25 points (-$28,762 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands with RSI strategy took 345 trades, won 56.8% of them and made -3,175.50 points (-$63,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Supertrend with ADX above 25 backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/supertrend-with-adx-above-25. Library name: Supertrend with ADX above 25. Family: Popular combos. Also called: Supertrend ADX strategy, Supertrend with trend strength filter, Supertrend and ADX, buy when Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while ADX 14 is above 25, short when Supertrend (10, 3) flips down while ADX 14 is above 25. ### What it is This is the Supertrend (10, 3) flip strategy taken only while the ADX(14) is above 25. It exits on the opposite flip. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.3% of them and finished -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 96 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.8% and made -1,146.50 points (-$22,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 178 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished 285.75 points ($14,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 96 long trades, won 43.8% of them and made -1,146.50 points (-$22,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -120.00 points on 159 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,331.25 points on 44 trades on the 1-hour chart and 8,148.75 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips down while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 88 short trades, won 52.3% of them and made 683.75 points ($34,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 415.25 points on 162 trades on the 5-minute chart, -88.25 points on 36 trades on the 1-hour chart and -192.75 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 188 trades, won 46.3% of them and finished -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Supertrend with ADX above 25 on ES futures? A: The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy won 46.1% of its 178 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 43.3% of 321 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.7% of 74 trades on the 1-hour chart and 42.9% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy made -2,420.25 points on 308 trades on the 5-minute chart, -431.00 points on 188 trades on the 15-minute chart, -830.25 points on 83 trades on the 1-hour chart and 6,788.00 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Supertrend with ADX above 25 signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,146.50 points on 96 trades (43.8% won) and the short trades made 715.50 points on 92 trades (48.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 308 on the 5-minute chart, 83 on the 1-hour chart and 5 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on NQ? A: The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy had a max drawdown of 2,260.00 points ($45,200 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,560.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,530.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 736.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 178 trades, won 46.1% of them and made 285.75 points ($14,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades, won 46.3% of them and made -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Full Ichimoku signal backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/full-ichimoku-signal. Library name: Full Ichimoku signal. Family: Popular combos. Also called: Ichimoku strategy, Ichimoku full signal, Ichimoku all conditions, buy when the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun above the cloud with the lagging span above the price from 26 bars ago, short when the Tenkan crosses below the Kijun below the cloud with the lagging span below the price from 26 bars ago. ### What it is This strategy goes long on a Tenkan/Kijun cross above the cloud with the lagging span above price 26 bars ago (short on the mirror). It exits on the opposite Tenkan/Kijun cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.8% of them and finished 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 110 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 57.3% and made 968.75 points ($19,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 204 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished -116.00 points (-$5,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the full Ichimoku signal strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun above the cloud with the lagging span above the price from 26 bars ago? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 110 long trades, won 57.3% of them and made 968.75 points ($19,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,315.50 points on 245 trades on the 5-minute chart, 898.00 points on 26 trades on the 1-hour chart and -155.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Tenkan crosses below the Kijun below the cloud with the lagging span below the price from 26 bars ago? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 96 short trades, won 40.6% of them and made 49.50 points ($2,475 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 54.00 points on 205 trades on the 5-minute chart, 154.50 points on 17 trades on the 1-hour chart and 339.25 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the full Ichimoku signal strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy on the 15-minute chart took 209 trades, won 48.8% of them and finished 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Full Ichimoku signal on ES futures? A: The full Ichimoku signal strategy won 46.1% of its 204 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 43.5% of 423 trades on the 5-minute chart, 59.0% of 39 trades on the 1-hour chart and 28.6% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the full Ichimoku signal strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy made 3,462.00 points on 462 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,190.00 points on 209 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,329.00 points on 32 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,241.75 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell full Ichimoku signal signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 968.75 points on 110 trades (57.3% won) and the short trades made 221.25 points on 99 trades (39.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the full Ichimoku signal strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 462 on the 5-minute chart, 32 on the 1-hour chart and 9 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the full Ichimoku signal strategy on NQ? A: The full Ichimoku signal strategy had a max drawdown of 1,176.50 points ($23,530 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,636.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 152.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 1,739.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the full Ichimoku signal strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 204 trades, won 46.1% of them and made -116.00 points (-$5,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades, won 48.8% of them and made 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## MACD crossover with an RSI filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/macd-cross-with-rsi-above-50. Library name: MACD cross with RSI above 50. Family: Popular combos. Also called: MACD and RSI strategy, MACD cross with RSI above 50, MACD RSI combo, buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line while RSI 14 is above 50, short when the MACD line crosses below the signal line while RSI 14 is below 50. ### What it is This is the MACD signal-line cross with an RSI(14) filter: longs only when RSI is above 50 and shorts only when it is below 50. It exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 663 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,182.25 points (-$23,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 329 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 44.7% and made -1,119.75 points (-$22,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 715 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.0% of them and finished -65.50 points (-$3,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD line crosses above the signal line while RSI 14 is above 50? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 329 long trades, won 44.7% of them and made -1,119.75 points (-$22,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,684.00 points on 1,000 trades on the 5-minute chart, -376.00 points on 120 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,981.25 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the MACD line crosses below the signal line while RSI 14 is below 50? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 341 short trades, won 37.5% of them and made 265.75 points ($13,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 525.25 points on 862 trades on the 5-minute chart, -60.00 points on 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and -93.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 663 trades, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,182.25 points (-$23,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of MACD cross with RSI above 50 on ES futures? A: The MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy won 39.0% of its 715 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.2% of 1,820 trades on the 5-minute chart, 47.9% of 240 trades on the 1-hour chart and 28.6% of 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy made 2,397.25 points on 1,883 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,182.25 points on 663 trades on the 15-minute chart, -545.50 points on 215 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,031.25 points on 30 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD crossover with an RSI filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,119.75 points on 329 trades (44.7% won) and the short trades made -62.50 points on 334 trades (36.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 663 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,883 on the 5-minute chart, 215 on the 1-hour chart and 30 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy on NQ? A: The MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy had a max drawdown of 3,274.00 points ($65,480 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,500.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,115.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,894.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 715 trades, won 39.0% of them and made -65.50 points (-$3,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD crossover with an RSI filter strategy took 663 trades, won 40.7% of them and made -1,182.25 points (-$23,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Golden cross with an RSI pullback backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/golden-cross-with-an-rsi-pullback. Library name: Golden cross with an RSI pullback. Family: Popular combos. Also called: golden cross RSI strategy, SMA 50 200 and RSI pullback, trend pullback with RSI, buy when RSI 14 dips below 40 while the 50 SMA is above the 200 SMA. ### What it is While the SMA 50 is above the SMA 200, this strategy goes long when the RSI(14) dips below 40. It exits when the RSI reaches 70. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, going long when the RSI(14) dips below 40 while the SMA 50 is above the SMA 200, and exiting when the RSI reaches 70, took 3 trades on the daily chart, won 100.0% of them and finished 4,023.00 points ($80,460 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 3 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 91 trades, won 50.6% of them and finished -1,145.00 points (-$22,900 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, going long when the RSI(14) dips below 40 while the SMA 50 is above the SMA 200, and exiting when the RSI reaches 70, took 3 trades on the daily chart, won 100.0% of them and finished 1,380.00 points ($69,000 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 3 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 91 trades, won 52.8% of them and finished -141.00 points (-$7,050 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time RSI 14 dips below 40 while the 50 SMA is above the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 1-hour chart, the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy took 91 long trades, won 50.6% of them and made -1,145.00 points (-$22,900 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 4,023.00 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy on the 1-hour chart took 91 trades, won 50.6% of them and finished -1,145.00 points (-$22,900 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Golden cross with an RSI pullback on ES futures? A: The golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy won 52.8% of its 91 trades on the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 100.0% of 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy better on the 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy made -1,145.00 points on 91 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,023.00 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy took 91 trades on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy on NQ? A: The golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy had a max drawdown of 1,745.25 points ($34,905 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 0.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy took 91 trades, won 52.8% of them and made -141.00 points (-$7,050 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross with an RSI pullback strategy took 91 trades, won 50.6% of them and made -1,145.00 points (-$22,900 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/donchian-20-breakout-with-adx-above-25. Library name: Donchian 20 breakout with ADX above 25. Family: Popular combos. Also called: Donchian ADX strategy, Turtle breakout with ADX, 20 bar breakout and ADX, buy when price breaks above the prior 20-bar high while ADX 14 is above 25, short when price breaks below the prior 20-bar low while ADX 14 is above 25. ### What it is This is the Donchian 20 breakout taken only while the ADX(14) is above 25. It exits on a break of the 10-bar low (long) or 10-bar high (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 409 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.7% of them and finished 728.25 points ($14,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 212 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.1% and made 482.25 points ($9,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 405 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.2% of them and finished -157.75 points (-$7,887 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the prior 20-bar high while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 212 long trades, won 49.1% of them and made 482.25 points ($9,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 950.25 points on 380 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,000.50 points on 103 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,408.00 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the prior 20-bar low while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 204 short trades, won 38.7% of them and made -20.50 points (-$1,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -314.75 points on 428 trades on the 5-minute chart, 179.75 points on 86 trades on the 1-hour chart and -363.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 409 trades, won 45.7% of them and finished 728.25 points ($14,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Donchian 20 breakout with ADX above 25 on ES futures? A: The Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy won 41.2% of its 405 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.5% of 808 trades on the 5-minute chart, 47.9% of 194 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy made 1,662.00 points on 777 trades on the 5-minute chart, 728.25 points on 409 trades on the 15-minute chart, -2,147.50 points on 188 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,615.00 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 482.25 points on 212 trades (49.1% won) and the short trades made 246.00 points on 197 trades (42.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 409 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 777 on the 5-minute chart, 188 on the 1-hour chart and 8 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy on NQ? A: The Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy had a max drawdown of 2,526.50 points ($50,530 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,043.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,914.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,950.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 405 trades, won 41.2% of them and made -157.75 points (-$7,887 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout with an ADX filter strategy took 409 trades, won 45.7% of them and made 728.25 points ($14,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-20-50-cross-with-macd-above-zero. Library name: EMA 20 / 50 cross with MACD above zero. Family: Popular combos. Also called: EMA 20 50 and MACD strategy, moving average cross with MACD filter, EMA crossover MACD above zero, buy when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA while MACD is above zero, short when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA while MACD is below zero. ### What it is This is the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter: longs only while the MACD is above 0 and shorts only while it is below 0. It exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 292 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.2% of them and finished 2,657.00 points ($53,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 135 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.6% and made 1,350.75 points ($27,015 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 288 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.5% of them and finished 332.00 points ($16,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA while MACD is above zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 135 long trades, won 49.6% of them and made 1,350.75 points ($27,015 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,734.75 points on 326 trades on the 5-minute chart, -664.50 points on 44 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,208.50 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA while MACD is below zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 169 short trades, won 43.8% of them and made 82.75 points ($4,138 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 29.00 points on 340 trades on the 5-minute chart, -8.75 points on 42 trades on the 1-hour chart and -413.50 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy on the 15-minute chart took 292 trades, won 46.2% of them and finished 2,657.00 points ($53,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 20 / 50 cross with MACD above zero on ES futures? A: The EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy won 46.5% of its 288 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 40.2% of 681 trades on the 5-minute chart, 42.9% of 84 trades on the 1-hour chart and 42.9% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy made -2,688.50 points on 629 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,657.00 points on 292 trades on the 15-minute chart, -884.25 points on 79 trades on the 1-hour chart and -771.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,350.75 points on 135 trades (49.6% won) and the short trades made 1,306.25 points on 157 trades (43.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 292 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 629 on the 5-minute chart, 79 on the 1-hour chart and 7 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy on NQ? A: The EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy had a max drawdown of 1,999.00 points ($39,980 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,544.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,676.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,182.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 288 trades, won 46.5% of them and made 332.00 points ($16,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross with a MACD filter strategy took 292 trades, won 46.2% of them and made 2,657.00 points ($53,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Buy and hold backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/buy-and-hold. Library name: Buy and hold. Family: Baselines. Also called: buy and hold futures, buy and hold benchmark, long and hold strategy. ### What it is Buy and hold goes long from the first bar of the test and does nothing else. The position is held to the last bar. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy and hold strategy took 1 trade on the daily chart and finished 9,329.25 points ($186,585 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 1 trade). On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy and hold strategy took 1 trade on the daily chart and finished 1,613.25 points ($80,663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 1 trade). This strategy was tested on the daily chart only; every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the buy and hold strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: How did the buy and hold do on NQ futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy and hold strategy on the daily chart took 1 trade and finished 9,329.25 points ($186,585 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: How did the buy and hold do on ES futures? A: On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy and hold strategy on the daily chart took 1 trade and finished 1,613.25 points ($80,663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. ## Random entries backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/random-entries. Library name: Random entries. Family: Baselines. Also called: random entry benchmark, coin flip trading, random trading baseline. ### What it is This baseline picks a coin-flip direction for the same number of trades and the same average hold as the median strategy on that timeframe, over 1,000 random seeds. Each trade is closed after the same hold time. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the random entries strategy took 631 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 52.6% of them and finished 98.50 points ($1,970 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 311 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 54.7% and made -1,068.25 points (-$21,365 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the random entries strategy took 660 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.1% of them and finished 6.25 points ($313 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the random entries strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: How did the random entries do on NQ futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the random entries strategy on the 15-minute chart took 631 trades, won 52.6% of them and finished 98.50 points ($1,970 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: How did the random entries do on ES futures? A: On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the random entries strategy on the 15-minute chart took 660 trades, won 49.1% of them and finished 6.25 points ($313 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. ## Bollinger Bands re-entry backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/bollinger-re-entry-20-2. Library name: Bollinger re-entry (20, 2). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: Bollinger Bands close back inside, Bollinger Band reversal, Bollinger re-entry strategy, buy when price closes back inside the lower Bollinger Band, short when price closes back inside the upper Bollinger Band. ### What it is Bollinger Bands place a 20-period simple moving average with bands two standard deviations above and below it. This strategy goes long when price closes back inside the lower band and short when it closes back inside the upper band, and exits on a touch of the middle band. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 701 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 58.4% of them and finished -246.75 points (-$4,935 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 344 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 62.5% and made 769.50 points ($15,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 721 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 57.8% of them and finished -607.50 points (-$30,375 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes back inside the lower Bollinger Band? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 344 long trades, won 62.5% of them and made 769.50 points ($15,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,133.75 points on 826 trades on the 5-minute chart, -595.25 points on 166 trades on the 1-hour chart and -464.00 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes back inside the upper Bollinger Band? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 366 short trades, won 58.7% of them and made -339.75 points (-$16,987 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 64.75 points on 797 trades on the 5-minute chart, 180.50 points on 191 trades on the 1-hour chart and -180.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy on the 15-minute chart took 701 trades, won 58.4% of them and finished -246.75 points (-$4,935 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) on ES futures? A: The Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy won 57.8% of its 721 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 66.3% of 1,635 trades on the 5-minute chart, 56.2% of 356 trades on the 1-hour chart and 63.2% of 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy made -2,764.50 points on 1,627 trades on the 5-minute chart, -246.75 points on 701 trades on the 15-minute chart, -937.50 points on 358 trades on the 1-hour chart and -3,136.50 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands re-entry signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 769.50 points on 344 trades (62.5% won) and the short trades made -1,016.25 points on 357 trades (54.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 701 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,627 on the 5-minute chart, 358 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy on NQ? A: The Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy had a max drawdown of 3,457.25 points ($69,145 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,003.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,561.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,543.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 721 trades, won 57.8% of them and made -607.50 points (-$30,375 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands re-entry strategy took 701 trades, won 58.4% of them and made -246.75 points (-$4,935 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Bollinger Bands breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/bollinger-breakout-20-2. Library name: Bollinger breakout (20, 2). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: Bollinger Band breakout strategy, close above upper Bollinger Band, Bollinger Bands momentum, buy when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, short when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band. ### What it is Bollinger Bands place a 20-period simple moving average with bands two standard deviations above and below it. This strategy goes long on a close above the upper band and short on a close below the lower band, and exits on a close back through the middle band. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.4% of them and finished 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 323 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.8% and made 1,192.50 points ($23,850 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 670 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.3% of them and finished 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 323 long trades, won 46.8% of them and made 1,192.50 points ($23,850 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,107.00 points on 753 trades on the 5-minute chart, 807.50 points on 202 trades on the 1-hour chart and 710.50 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 341 short trades, won 40.5% of them and made -173.25 points (-$8,662 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -20.25 points on 784 trades on the 5-minute chart, 74.00 points on 192 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,082.00 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and finished 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Bollinger breakout (20, 2) on ES futures? A: The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy won 43.3% of its 670 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.2% of 1,515 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.7% of 420 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy made 3,435.25 points on 1,533 trades on the 5-minute chart, 952.75 points on 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,998.00 points on 379 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,250.75 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,192.50 points on 323 trades (46.8% won) and the short trades made -239.75 points on 325 trades (38.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,533 on the 5-minute chart, 379 on the 1-hour chart and 21 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on NQ? A: The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,777.25 points ($75,545 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,800.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,691.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,243.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 670 trades, won 43.3% of them and made 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and made 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Bollinger Band squeeze backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/bollinger-squeeze-ttm-style. Library name: Bollinger squeeze (TTM style). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: TTM squeeze, Bollinger Keltner squeeze, squeeze momentum strategy, buy when the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with upward momentum, short when the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with downward momentum. ### What it is A squeeze is when the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) sit inside the Keltner channel (20, 1.5). When the squeeze releases, this strategy trades in the direction of momentum, and exits on a close back through the EMA 20. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.4% of them and finished 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 172 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.5% and made 901.25 points ($18,025 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 333 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.8% of them and finished -224.75 points (-$11,237 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with upward momentum? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 172 long trades, won 46.5% of them and made 901.25 points ($18,025 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 422.50 points on 471 trades on the 5-minute chart, -309.50 points on 51 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,138.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with downward momentum? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 154 short trades, won 33.8% of them and made -72.25 points (-$3,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -58.50 points on 439 trades on the 5-minute chart, 21.25 points on 50 trades on the 1-hour chart and 75.75 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on the 15-minute chart took 325 trades, won 43.4% of them and finished 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Bollinger squeeze (TTM style) on ES futures? A: The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy won 37.8% of its 333 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.5% of 873 trades on the 5-minute chart, 52.1% of 119 trades on the 1-hour chart and 25.0% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy made 3,441.50 points on 899 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,440.25 points on 325 trades on the 15-minute chart, -647.75 points on 95 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,055.00 points on 14 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Band squeeze signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 901.25 points on 172 trades (46.5% won) and the short trades made 539.00 points on 153 trades (39.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 899 on the 5-minute chart, 95 on the 1-hour chart and 14 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on NQ? A: The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy had a max drawdown of 2,763.75 points ($55,275 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,926.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,480.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,450.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 333 trades, won 37.8% of them and made -224.75 points (-$11,237 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades, won 43.4% of them and made 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Keltner channel reversion backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/keltner-reversion-ema-20-2-atr. Library name: Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: Keltner channel mean reversion, Keltner fade strategy, EMA 20 2 ATR reversion, buy when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), short when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR). ### What it is A Keltner channel places bands 2 average true ranges (ATR) above and below a 20-period EMA. This strategy goes long on a close below the lower band and short on a close above the upper band, and exits on a touch of the middle line. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 60.9% of them and finished -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 227 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 66.1% and made 70.00 points ($1,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 470 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 55.7% of them and finished -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Keltner channel reversion strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 227 long trades, won 66.1% of them and made 70.00 points ($1,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,839.50 points on 466 trades on the 5-minute chart, 152.75 points on 105 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,572.50 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 236 short trades, won 53.4% of them and made -77.00 points (-$3,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -619.75 points on 488 trades on the 5-minute chart, 55.25 points on 138 trades on the 1-hour chart and -198.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Keltner channel reversion strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy on the 15-minute chart took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and finished -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) on ES futures? A: The Keltner channel reversion strategy won 55.7% of its 470 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 62.2% of 981 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.4% of 246 trades on the 1-hour chart and 66.7% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Keltner channel reversion strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy made -4,823.00 points on 928 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,993.25 points on 445 trades on the 15-minute chart, -2.50 points on 248 trades on the 1-hour chart and -972.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Keltner channel reversion signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 70.00 points on 227 trades (66.1% won) and the short trades made -2,063.25 points on 218 trades (55.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Keltner channel reversion strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 928 on the 5-minute chart, 248 on the 1-hour chart and 13 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Keltner channel reversion strategy on NQ? A: The Keltner channel reversion strategy had a max drawdown of 3,793.25 points ($75,865 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,777.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,901.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,669.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Keltner channel reversion strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 470 trades, won 55.7% of them and made -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## VWAP standard deviation fade backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/vwap-2-standard-deviation-fade. Library name: VWAP 2 standard-deviation fade. Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: VWAP 2 SD strategy, VWAP bands reversion, VWAP mean reversion, buy when price closes below VWAP minus 2 standard deviations, short when price closes above VWAP plus 2 standard deviations. ### What it is The VWAP bands sit 2 standard deviations above and below the session's volume-weighted average price. This strategy goes long on a close below VWAP minus 2 SD and short on a close above VWAP plus 2 SD, and exits on a touch of VWAP. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 358 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 65.1% of them and finished 2,325.50 points ($46,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 183 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 66.7% and made 674.25 points ($13,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 402 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 61.4% of them and finished 358.00 points ($17,900 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute and 1-hour results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below VWAP minus 2 standard deviations? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 183 long trades, won 66.7% of them and made 674.25 points ($13,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 410.25 points on 249 trades on the 5-minute chart and 1,585.00 points on 99 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes above VWAP plus 2 standard deviations? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 201 short trades, won 59.7% of them and made 251.00 points ($12,550 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -23.50 points on 238 trades on the 5-minute chart and 116.50 points on 124 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy on the 15-minute chart took 358 trades, won 65.1% of them and finished 2,325.50 points ($46,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of VWAP 2 standard-deviation fade on ES futures? A: The VWAP standard deviation fade strategy won 61.4% of its 402 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 63.1% of 493 trades on the 5-minute chart and 62.3% of 239 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute or 1-hour chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy made -651.75 points on 472 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,325.50 points on 358 trades on the 15-minute chart and 3,218.75 points on 209 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell VWAP standard deviation fade signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 674.25 points on 183 trades (66.7% won) and the short trades made 1,651.25 points on 175 trades (63.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 358 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 472 on the 5-minute chart and 209 on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy on NQ? A: The VWAP standard deviation fade strategy had a max drawdown of 1,305.75 points ($26,115 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,478.50 points on the 5-minute chart and 813.00 points on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 402 trades, won 61.4% of them and made 358.00 points ($17,900 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP standard deviation fade strategy took 358 trades, won 65.1% of them and made 2,325.50 points ($46,510 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Three down closes in a row backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/three-down-closes-in-a-row. Library name: Three down closes in a row. Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: three lower closes strategy, consecutive down closes, 3 bar pullback strategy, buy when price makes three lower closes in a row, short when price makes three higher closes in a row. ### What it is This strategy goes long after 3 lower closes in a row and short after 3 higher closes in a row. It exits on the first close in the trade's favor. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades on the 1-hour chart, won 64.4% of them and finished 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 195 long trades on the 1-hour chart won 70.8% and made 1,937.75 points ($38,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three down closes in a row strategy took 437 trades on the 1-hour chart, won 61.6% of them and finished 227.00 points ($11,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the three down closes in a row strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price makes three lower closes in a row? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 1-hour chart, the three down closes in a row strategy took 195 long trades, won 70.8% of them and made 1,937.75 points ($38,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,326.75 points on 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price makes three higher closes in a row? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 1-hour chart, the three down closes in a row strategy took 235 short trades, won 55.7% of them and made -66.00 points (-$3,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -745.75 points on 36 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the three down closes in a row strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy on the 1-hour chart took 433 trades, won 64.4% of them and finished 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Three down closes in a row on ES futures? A: The three down closes in a row strategy won 61.6% of its 437 trades on the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 61.0% of 59 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the three down closes in a row strategy better on the 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy made 2,982.50 points on 433 trades on the 1-hour chart and 992.75 points on 59 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell three down closes in a row signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,937.75 points on 195 trades (70.8% won) and the short trades made 1,044.75 points on 238 trades (59.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the three down closes in a row strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 59 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the three down closes in a row strategy on NQ? A: The three down closes in a row strategy had a max drawdown of 2,206.75 points ($44,135 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,712.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the three down closes in a row strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three down closes in a row strategy took 437 trades, won 61.6% of them and made 227.00 points ($11,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades, won 64.4% of them and made 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 10-bar low above the 200 SMA backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/10-bar-low-above-sma-200. Library name: 10-bar low above SMA 200. Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: 10 bar low pullback, pullback above 200 SMA, buy the dip above 200 SMA, buy when price closes at a 10-bar low while above the 200 SMA, short when price closes at a 10-bar high while below the 200 SMA. ### What it is This strategy goes long on a close at a 10-bar low while price is above the SMA 200, and short on the mirror below it. It exits on a close back above the SMA 5 (long) or below it (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 635 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 59.4% of them and finished -535.75 points (-$10,715 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 346 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 61.6% and made -1,527.25 points (-$30,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 642 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 60.9% of them and finished -89.25 points (-$4,462 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes at a 10-bar low while above the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 346 long trades, won 61.6% of them and made -1,527.25 points (-$30,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 591.50 points on 1,004 trades on the 5-minute chart, 489.75 points on 153 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,612.00 points on 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes at a 10-bar high while below the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 289 short trades, won 59.9% of them and made -97.25 points (-$4,862 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 193.00 points on 878 trades on the 5-minute chart, -159.25 points on 92 trades on the 1-hour chart and -486.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 635 trades, won 59.4% of them and finished -535.75 points (-$10,715 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of 10-bar low above SMA 200 on ES futures? A: The 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy won 60.9% of its 642 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 63.2% of 1,901 trades on the 5-minute chart, 60.0% of 240 trades on the 1-hour chart and 80.0% of 30 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy made 1,588.00 points on 1,935 trades on the 5-minute chart, -535.75 points on 635 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,330.50 points on 249 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,355.50 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 10-bar low above the 200 SMA signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,527.25 points on 346 trades (61.6% won) and the short trades made 991.50 points on 289 trades (56.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 635 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,935 on the 5-minute chart, 249 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy on NQ? A: The 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy had a max drawdown of 1,894.25 points ($37,885 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,898.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,389.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,159.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 642 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -89.25 points (-$4,462 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 10-bar low above the 200 SMA strategy took 635 trades, won 59.4% of them and made -535.75 points (-$10,715 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Internal bar strength (IBS) backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/internal-bar-strength-ibs. Library name: Internal bar strength (IBS). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: IBS strategy, internal bar strength indicator, IBS mean reversion, buy when the day closes in the bottom 20% of its range, short when the day closes in the top 20% of its range. ### What it is Internal bar strength (IBS) is where the close sits within the day's range. This strategy goes long when the day closes in the bottom 20% of its range and short when it closes in the top 20%, and exits on the first close in the top 20% of the day's range (long) or the bottom 20% (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 70 trades on the daily chart, won 64.3% of them and finished 2,667.50 points ($53,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 18 long trades on the daily chart won 72.2% and made 2,781.50 points ($55,630 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 64 trades on the daily chart, won 60.9% of them and finished 464.00 points ($23,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the daily chart only; every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the day closes in the bottom 20% of its range? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ daily chart, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 18 long trades, won 72.2% of them and made 2,781.50 points ($55,630 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the day closes in the top 20% of its range? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES daily chart, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 47 short trades, won 61.7% of them and made 196.00 points ($9,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy on the daily chart took 70 trades, won 64.3% of them and finished 2,667.50 points ($53,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Internal bar strength (IBS) on ES futures? A: The internal bar strength (IBS) strategy won 60.9% of its 64 trades on the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell internal bar strength (IBS) signals on NQ? A: On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,781.50 points on 18 trades (72.2% won) and the short trades made -114.00 points on 52 trades (61.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 70 trades on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy on NQ? A: The internal bar strength (IBS) strategy had a max drawdown of 6,428.00 points ($128,560 on one NQ contract) on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 64 trades, won 60.9% of them and made 464.00 points ($23,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the internal bar strength (IBS) strategy took 70 trades, won 64.3% of them and made 2,667.50 points ($53,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Z-score reversion backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/z-score-20-at-2. Library name: Z-score (20) at -2. Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: z-score strategy, z-score -2 strategy, statistical mean reversion, buy when the 20-bar z-score drops below -2, short when the 20-bar z-score rises above +2. ### What it is The 20-bar z-score measures how many standard deviations the close is from its 20-bar average. This strategy goes long when the z-score drops below -2 and short when it rises above +2, and exits when the z-score returns to 0. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the z-score reversion strategy took 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 57.6% of them and finished -952.75 points (-$19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 325 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 61.9% and made 239.75 points ($4,795 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the z-score reversion strategy took 670 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 56.7% of them and finished -130.75 points (-$6,537 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the z-score reversion strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20-bar z-score drops below -2? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the z-score reversion strategy took 325 long trades, won 61.9% of them and made 239.75 points ($4,795 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,359.25 points on 780 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,190.50 points on 177 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,961.25 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 20-bar z-score rises above +2? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the z-score reversion strategy took 329 short trades, won 53.8% of them and made -295.50 points (-$14,775 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -391.75 points on 732 trades on the 5-minute chart, 444.75 points on 228 trades on the 1-hour chart and -72.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the z-score reversion strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the z-score reversion strategy on the 15-minute chart took 648 trades, won 57.6% of them and finished -952.75 points (-$19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Z-score (20) at -2 on ES futures? A: The z-score reversion strategy won 56.7% of its 670 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 61.4% of 1,516 trades on the 5-minute chart, 52.4% of 420 trades on the 1-hour chart and 66.7% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the z-score reversion strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the z-score reversion strategy made -3,466.25 points on 1,533 trades on the 5-minute chart, -952.75 points on 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,998.00 points on 379 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,250.75 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell z-score reversion signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 239.75 points on 325 trades (61.9% won) and the short trades made -1,192.50 points on 323 trades (53.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the z-score reversion strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The z-score reversion strategy took 648 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,533 on the 5-minute chart, 379 on the 1-hour chart and 21 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the z-score reversion strategy on NQ? A: The z-score reversion strategy had a max drawdown of 5,085.75 points ($101,715 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,320.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,198.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,858.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the z-score reversion strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the z-score reversion strategy took 670 trades, won 56.7% of them and made -130.75 points (-$6,537 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the z-score reversion strategy took 648 trades, won 57.6% of them and made -952.75 points (-$19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Double 7s (Connors) backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/double-7s-connors. Library name: Double 7s (Connors). Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: double seven strategy, Connors Double 7, 7 day low strategy, buy when price closes at a 7-day low while above the 200 SMA, short when price closes at a 7-day high while below the 200 SMA. ### What it is The Double 7s strategy was popularized by Larry Connors and uses 7-day highs and lows. Above the SMA 200, it goes long on a close at a 7-day low (short on the mirror below it), and exits on a close at a 7-day high (long) or low (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 27 trades on the daily chart, won 74.1% of them and finished 1,520.50 points ($30,410 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 24 long trades on the daily chart won 79.2% and made 6,654.75 points ($133,095 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 28 trades on the daily chart, won 75.0% of them and finished 296.75 points ($14,838 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the daily chart only; every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Double 7s (Connors) strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes at a 7-day low while above the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ daily chart, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 24 long trades, won 79.2% of them and made 6,654.75 points ($133,095 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes at a 7-day high while below the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES daily chart, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 3 short trades, won 33.3% of them and made -776.00 points (-$38,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Double 7s (Connors) strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy on the daily chart took 27 trades, won 74.1% of them and finished 1,520.50 points ($30,410 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Double 7s (Connors) on ES futures? A: The Double 7s (Connors) strategy won 75.0% of its 28 trades on the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Double 7s (Connors) signals on NQ? A: On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 6,654.75 points on 24 trades (79.2% won) and the short trades made -5,134.25 points on 3 trades (33.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Double 7s (Connors) strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 27 trades on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Double 7s (Connors) strategy on NQ? A: The Double 7s (Connors) strategy had a max drawdown of 5,517.00 points ($110,340 on one NQ contract) on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Double 7s (Connors) strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 28 trades, won 75.0% of them and made 296.75 points ($14,838 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Double 7s (Connors) strategy took 27 trades, won 74.1% of them and made 1,520.50 points ($30,410 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Turnaround Tuesday backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/turnaround-tuesday. Library name: Turnaround Tuesday. Family: Mean reversion and bands. Also called: Turnaround Tuesday strategy, Monday down Tuesday up, day of the week strategy. ### What it is Turnaround Tuesday is a calendar pattern: if Monday closes down, this strategy buys Monday's close. It sells at Tuesday's close. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 37 trades on the daily chart, won 43.2% of them and finished 820.25 points ($16,405 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 33 trades on the daily chart, won 45.5% of them and finished 249.25 points ($12,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the daily chart only; every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Turnaround Tuesday strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Monday closes down (buying Monday's close and selling Tuesday's close)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ daily chart, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 37 long trades, won 43.2% of them and made 820.25 points ($16,405 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Turnaround Tuesday strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy on the daily chart took 37 trades, won 43.2% of them and finished 820.25 points ($16,405 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Turnaround Tuesday on ES futures? A: The Turnaround Tuesday strategy won 45.5% of its 33 trades on the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Turnaround Tuesday strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 37 trades on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Turnaround Tuesday strategy on NQ? A: The Turnaround Tuesday strategy had a max drawdown of 943.00 points ($18,860 on one NQ contract) on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Turnaround Tuesday strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 33 trades, won 45.5% of them and made 249.25 points ($12,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Turnaround Tuesday strategy took 37 trades, won 43.2% of them and made 820.25 points ($16,405 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## OBV cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/obv-crosses-its-20-sma. Library name: OBV crosses its 20 SMA. Family: Volume. Also called: on balance volume strategy, OBV 20 SMA cross, OBV crossover, buy when OBV crosses above its 20-bar SMA, short when OBV crosses below its 20-bar SMA. ### What it is On-balance volume (OBV) is a running total that adds volume on up bars and subtracts it on down bars. This strategy goes long when the OBV crosses above its 20-bar SMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the OBV cross strategy took 1,804 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.5% of them and finished -10,063.00 points (-$201,260 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 909 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 32.7% and made -4,665.50 points (-$93,310 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the OBV cross strategy took 1,719 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.2% of them and finished 17.75 points ($888 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the OBV cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time OBV crosses above its 20-bar SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the OBV cross strategy took 909 long trades, won 32.7% of them and made -4,665.50 points (-$93,310 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -297.25 points on 2,666 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,549.25 points on 340 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,415.50 points on 45 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time OBV crosses below its 20-bar SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the OBV cross strategy took 864 short trades, won 29.8% of them and made 110.25 points ($5,513 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -72.75 points on 2,612 trades on the 5-minute chart, 308.00 points on 352 trades on the 1-hour chart and -405.00 points on 39 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the OBV cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the OBV cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,804 trades, won 30.5% of them and finished -10,063.00 points (-$201,260 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of OBV crosses its 20 SMA on ES futures? A: The OBV cross strategy won 32.2% of its 1,719 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 27.2% of 5,201 trades on the 5-minute chart, 39.3% of 697 trades on the 1-hour chart and 37.2% of 78 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the OBV cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the OBV cross strategy made -460.00 points on 5,332 trades on the 5-minute chart, -10,063.00 points on 1,804 trades on the 15-minute chart, 4,428.75 points on 686 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,189.50 points on 90 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell OBV cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -4,665.50 points on 909 trades (32.7% won) and the short trades made -5,397.50 points on 895 trades (28.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the OBV cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The OBV cross strategy took 1,804 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,332 on the 5-minute chart, 686 on the 1-hour chart and 90 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the OBV cross strategy on NQ? A: The OBV cross strategy had a max drawdown of 11,475.00 points ($229,500 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,688.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,499.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,950.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the OBV cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the OBV cross strategy took 1,719 trades, won 32.2% of them and made 17.75 points ($888 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the OBV cross strategy took 1,804 trades, won 30.5% of them and made -10,063.00 points (-$201,260 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Volume spike candle backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/volume-spike-candle. Library name: Volume spike candle. Family: Volume. Also called: volume spike strategy, high volume bar strategy, volume surge candle, buy when an up bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open), short when a down bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open). ### What it is A volume spike is a bar with at least 2x the 20-bar average volume. This strategy trades the direction of that bar at the next open, with the stop beyond the bar and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.9% of them and finished 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 486 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 39.7% and made 2,665.25 points ($53,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,185 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.5% of them and finished 868.00 points ($43,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the volume spike candle strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time an up bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the volume spike candle strategy took 486 long trades, won 39.7% of them and made 2,665.25 points ($53,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,681.00 points on 636 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,017.25 points on 451 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a down bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the volume spike candle strategy took 619 short trades, won 37.5% of them and made 228.00 points ($11,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 121.75 points on 916 trades on the 5-minute chart, 297.75 points on 489 trades on the 1-hour chart and 104.50 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the volume spike candle strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,002 trades, won 38.9% of them and finished 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Volume spike candle on ES futures? A: The volume spike candle strategy won 38.5% of its 1,185 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.3% of 1,635 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.6% of 979 trades on the 1-hour chart and 100.0% of 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the volume spike candle strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy made 4,144.75 points on 1,363 trades on the 5-minute chart, 4,566.00 points on 1,002 trades on the 15-minute chart, 4,413.75 points on 881 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell volume spike candle signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,665.25 points on 486 trades (39.7% won) and the short trades made 1,900.75 points on 516 trades (38.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the volume spike candle strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,363 on the 5-minute chart, 881 on the 1-hour chart and 0 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the volume spike candle strategy on NQ? A: The volume spike candle strategy had a max drawdown of 2,912.00 points ($58,240 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,448.75 points on the 5-minute chart and 4,311.50 points on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the volume spike candle strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,185 trades, won 38.5% of them and made 868.00 points ($43,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Chaikin Money Flow zero cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/chaikin-money-flow-20-zero-cross. Library name: Chaikin Money Flow (20) zero cross. Family: Volume. Also called: Chaikin Money Flow strategy, CMF 20 strategy, CMF zero line, buy when Chaikin Money Flow 20 crosses above zero, short when Chaikin Money Flow 20 crosses below zero. ### What it is Chaikin Money Flow (CMF, 20 periods) measures buying and selling pressure from the close's position in the bar and the volume. This strategy goes long when the CMF crosses above 0, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 1,219 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.6% of them and finished -10,738.00 points (-$214,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 618 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 40.5% and made -3,907.50 points (-$78,150 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 1,296 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 36.8% of them and finished -1,643.50 points (-$82,175 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Chaikin Money Flow 20 crosses above zero? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 618 long trades, won 40.5% of them and made -3,907.50 points (-$78,150 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,420.75 points on 1,951 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,220.75 points on 262 trades on the 1-hour chart and 283.50 points on 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time Chaikin Money Flow 20 crosses below zero? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 648 short trades, won 34.6% of them and made -1,147.25 points (-$57,362 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 452.75 points on 1,869 trades on the 5-minute chart, -108.75 points on 246 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,746.00 points on 15 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,219 trades, won 39.6% of them and finished -10,738.00 points (-$214,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Chaikin Money Flow (20) zero cross on ES futures? A: The Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy won 36.8% of its 1,296 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.9% of 3,723 trades on the 5-minute chart, 45.1% of 521 trades on the 1-hour chart and 16.7% of 30 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy made 421.25 points on 3,906 trades on the 5-minute chart, -10,738.00 points on 1,219 trades on the 15-minute chart, 712.25 points on 506 trades on the 1-hour chart and -7,823.25 points on 48 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Chaikin Money Flow zero cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -3,907.50 points on 618 trades (40.5% won) and the short trades made -6,830.50 points on 601 trades (38.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 1,219 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,906 on the 5-minute chart, 506 on the 1-hour chart and 48 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy on NQ? A: The Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy had a max drawdown of 12,104.25 points ($242,085 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,646.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,603.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 10,887.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 1,296 trades, won 36.8% of them and made -1,643.50 points (-$82,175 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chaikin Money Flow zero cross strategy took 1,219 trades, won 39.6% of them and made -10,738.00 points (-$214,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## VWMA 20 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/vwma-20-cross. Library name: VWMA 20 cross. Family: Volume. Also called: volume weighted moving average strategy, VWMA crossover, VWMA 20 strategy, buy when price closes above the 20-bar volume-weighted moving average, short when price closes below the 20-bar volume-weighted moving average. ### What it is The volume-weighted moving average (VWMA, 20 periods) weights each close by its volume. This strategy goes long on a close above the VWMA, short on a close below it, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 2,056 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 31.2% of them and finished 111.75 points ($2,235 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 1,047 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 33.8% and made 1,866.75 points ($37,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 2,100 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 31.1% of them and finished 56.00 points ($2,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the VWMA 20 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 20-bar volume-weighted moving average? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 1,047 long trades, won 33.8% of them and made 1,866.75 points ($37,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,015.75 points on 2,679 trades on the 5-minute chart, -327.00 points on 513 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,375.50 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 20-bar volume-weighted moving average? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 1,026 short trades, won 28.8% of them and made -288.25 points (-$14,412 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 42.25 points on 2,621 trades on the 5-minute chart, -768.50 points on 479 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,175.25 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the VWMA 20 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWMA 20 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 2,056 trades, won 31.2% of them and finished 111.75 points ($2,235 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of VWMA 20 cross on ES futures? A: The VWMA 20 cross strategy won 31.1% of its 2,100 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 27.0% of 5,245 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.1% of 1,024 trades on the 1-hour chart and 23.6% of 55 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the VWMA 20 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWMA 20 cross strategy made -1,249.00 points on 5,354 trades on the 5-minute chart, 111.75 points on 2,056 trades on the 15-minute chart, -3,084.00 points on 963 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,309.75 points on 75 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell VWMA 20 cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,866.75 points on 1,047 trades (33.8% won) and the short trades made -1,755.00 points on 1,009 trades (28.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the VWMA 20 cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The VWMA 20 cross strategy took 2,056 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,354 on the 5-minute chart, 963 on the 1-hour chart and 75 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the VWMA 20 cross strategy on NQ? A: The VWMA 20 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,033.25 points ($80,665 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,820.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,380.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,625.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the VWMA 20 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 2,100 trades, won 31.1% of them and made 56.00 points ($2,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWMA 20 cross strategy took 2,056 trades, won 31.2% of them and made 111.75 points ($2,235 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 5-minute opening range breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-range-breakout-5-minutes. Library name: Opening range breakout, 5 minutes. Family: Opening and session. Also called: ORB 5, 5 minute ORB, opening range breakout 5 minutes, 5 minute opening range, 5 minute opening range breakout, buy when price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:35 ET opening range, short when price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:35 ET opening range. ### What it is The opening range is the high and low of the first 5 minutes of the regular session (09:30 to 09:35 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 515 trades on the session timeframe, won 35.7% of them and finished 3,513.50 points ($70,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 253 long trades on the session timeframe won 36.4% and made 2,572.50 points ($51,450 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 515 trades on the session timeframe, won 29.5% of them and finished -99.75 points (-$4,987 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:35 ET opening range? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 253 long trades, won 36.4% of them and made 2,572.50 points ($51,450 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:35 ET opening range? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 267 short trades, won 27.7% of them and made 81.50 points ($4,075 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 515 trades, won 35.7% of them and finished 3,513.50 points ($70,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Opening range breakout, 5 minutes on ES futures? A: The 5-minute opening range breakout strategy won 29.5% of its 515 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 5-minute opening range breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,572.50 points on 253 trades (36.4% won) and the short trades made 941.00 points on 262 trades (35.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 515 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ? A: The 5-minute opening range breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,113.75 points ($62,275 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 515 trades, won 29.5% of them and made -99.75 points (-$4,987 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy took 515 trades, won 35.7% of them and made 3,513.50 points ($70,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 30-minute opening range breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-range-breakout-30-minutes. Library name: Opening range breakout, 30 minutes. Family: Opening and session. Also called: ORB 30, 30 minute ORB, opening range breakout 30 minutes, 30 minute opening range, 30 minute opening range breakout, buy when price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:00 ET opening range, short when price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:00 ET opening range. ### What it is The opening range is the high and low of the first 30 minutes of the regular session (09:30 to 10:00 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 509 trades on the session timeframe, won 49.1% of them and finished 493.00 points ($9,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 271 long trades on the session timeframe won 54.2% and made 2,276.50 points ($45,530 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 512 trades on the session timeframe, won 46.1% of them and finished 168.50 points ($8,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:00 ET opening range? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 271 long trades, won 54.2% of them and made 2,276.50 points ($45,530 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:00 ET opening range? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 232 short trades, won 43.1% of them and made 306.75 points ($15,338 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 509 trades, won 49.1% of them and finished 493.00 points ($9,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Opening range breakout, 30 minutes on ES futures? A: The 30-minute opening range breakout strategy won 46.1% of its 512 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 30-minute opening range breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,276.50 points on 271 trades (54.2% won) and the short trades made -1,783.50 points on 238 trades (43.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 509 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ? A: The 30-minute opening range breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 4,810.00 points ($96,200 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 512 trades, won 46.1% of them and made 168.50 points ($8,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 30-minute opening range breakout strategy took 509 trades, won 49.1% of them and made 493.00 points ($9,860 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Initial balance breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/initial-balance-breakout-first-hour. Library name: Initial balance breakout (first hour). Family: Opening and session. Also called: first hour breakout, initial balance strategy, IB breakout, opening hour range breakout, buy when price breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour, short when price breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour. ### What it is The initial balance is the high and low of the first hour of the regular session (09:30 to 10:30 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades on the session timeframe, won 47.7% of them and finished -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 276 long trades on the session timeframe won 53.6% and made 1,267.25 points ($25,345 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the initial balance breakout strategy took 497 trades on the session timeframe, won 48.9% of them and finished 76.25 points ($3,813 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the initial balance breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the initial balance breakout strategy took 276 long trades, won 53.6% of them and made 1,267.25 points ($25,345 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the initial balance breakout strategy took 228 short trades, won 43.4% of them and made -64.25 points (-$3,212 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the initial balance breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 486 trades, won 47.7% of them and finished -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Initial balance breakout (first hour) on ES futures? A: The initial balance breakout strategy won 48.9% of its 497 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell initial balance breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,267.25 points on 276 trades (53.6% won) and the short trades made -1,616.25 points on 210 trades (40.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the initial balance breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the initial balance breakout strategy on NQ? A: The initial balance breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,774.00 points ($75,480 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the initial balance breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the initial balance breakout strategy took 497 trades, won 48.9% of them and made 76.25 points ($3,813 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades, won 47.7% of them and made -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 15-minute ORB with a 2R target backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/orb-15-minutes-with-a-2r-target. Library name: ORB 15 minutes with a 2R target. Family: Opening and session. Also called: ORB 15 2R target, opening range breakout with target, opening range breakout 2R, buy when price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range (2R target), short when price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range (2R target). ### What it is This uses the 15-minute opening range breakout entry (09:30 to 09:45 ET range, first break of its high or low). The stop is at the other side of the range, the target is 2R, and anything still open exits at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 44.9% of them and finished 2,952.50 points ($59,050 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 264 long trades on the session timeframe won 47.0% and made 2,222.25 points ($44,445 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 44.2% of them and finished 891.00 points ($44,550 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range (2R target)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 264 long trades, won 47.0% of them and made 2,222.25 points ($44,445 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range (2R target)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 243 short trades, won 43.6% of them and made 737.00 points ($36,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy on the session timeframe took 514 trades, won 44.9% of them and finished 2,952.50 points ($59,050 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of ORB 15 minutes with a 2R target on ES futures? A: The 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy won 44.2% of its 514 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 15-minute ORB with a 2R target signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,222.25 points on 264 trades (47.0% won) and the short trades made 730.25 points on 250 trades (42.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 514 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy on NQ? A: The 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy had a max drawdown of 4,674.75 points ($93,495 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 514 trades, won 44.2% of them and made 891.00 points ($44,550 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute ORB with a 2R target strategy took 514 trades, won 44.9% of them and made 2,952.50 points ($59,050 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Opening gap fill backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/opening-gap-fill. Library name: Opening gap fill. Family: Opening and session. Also called: gap fill strategy, fade the gap, opening gap fade, buy when the market opens at least 0.25% below yesterday's 16:00 close (fading the gap at 09:30), short when the market opens at least 0.25% above yesterday's 16:00 close (fading the gap at 09:30). ### What it is An opening gap is a gap of at least 0.25% between the 09:30 open and yesterday's 16:00 close. This strategy fades the gap at 09:30, with the target at yesterday's close, the stop one gap-size beyond the open, and an exit at 15:59 ET otherwise. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the opening gap fill strategy took 330 trades on the session timeframe, won 51.2% of them and finished 4,498.75 points ($89,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 148 long trades on the session timeframe won 54.7% and made 2,267.50 points ($45,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the opening gap fill strategy took 279 trades on the session timeframe, won 50.9% of them and finished 852.75 points ($42,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the opening gap fill strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the market opens at least 0.25% below yesterday's 16:00 close (fading the gap at 09:30)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the opening gap fill strategy took 148 long trades, won 54.7% of them and made 2,267.50 points ($45,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the market opens at least 0.25% above yesterday's 16:00 close (fading the gap at 09:30)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the opening gap fill strategy took 158 short trades, won 48.1% of them and made 504.50 points ($25,225 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the opening gap fill strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the opening gap fill strategy on the session timeframe took 330 trades, won 51.2% of them and finished 4,498.75 points ($89,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Opening gap fill on ES futures? A: The opening gap fill strategy won 50.9% of its 279 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell opening gap fill signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,267.50 points on 148 trades (54.7% won) and the short trades made 2,231.25 points on 182 trades (48.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the opening gap fill strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The opening gap fill strategy took 330 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the opening gap fill strategy on NQ? A: The opening gap fill strategy had a max drawdown of 1,639.50 points ($32,790 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the opening gap fill strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the opening gap fill strategy took 279 trades, won 50.9% of them and made 852.75 points ($42,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the opening gap fill strategy took 330 trades, won 51.2% of them and made 4,498.75 points ($89,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Gap and go backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/gap-and-go. Library name: Gap and go. Family: Opening and session. Also called: gap and go strategy, gap continuation strategy, opening gap momentum, buy when the market gaps up at least 0.25% and the first 5-minute candle closes up (entering at 09:35), short when the market gaps down at least 0.25% and the first 5-minute candle closes down (entering at 09:35). ### What it is An opening gap is a gap of at least 0.25% between the 09:30 open and yesterday's 16:00 close. If the first 5-minute candle closes in the gap's direction, this strategy enters with the gap at 09:35, with the stop at the first candle's other end and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the gap and go strategy took 160 trades on the session timeframe, won 28.1% of them and finished 1,393.75 points ($27,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 92 long trades on the session timeframe won 29.4% and made 1,214.00 points ($24,280 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the gap and go strategy took 139 trades on the session timeframe, won 22.3% of them and finished 28.50 points ($1,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the gap and go strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the market gaps up at least 0.25% and the first 5-minute candle closes up (entering at 09:35)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the gap and go strategy took 92 long trades, won 29.4% of them and made 1,214.00 points ($24,280 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the market gaps down at least 0.25% and the first 5-minute candle closes down (entering at 09:35)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the gap and go strategy took 59 short trades, won 20.3% of them and made 26.50 points ($1,325 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the gap and go strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the gap and go strategy on the session timeframe took 160 trades, won 28.1% of them and finished 1,393.75 points ($27,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Gap and go on ES futures? A: The gap and go strategy won 22.3% of its 139 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell gap and go signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,214.00 points on 92 trades (29.4% won) and the short trades made 179.75 points on 68 trades (26.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the gap and go strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The gap and go strategy took 160 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the gap and go strategy on NQ? A: The gap and go strategy had a max drawdown of 1,273.75 points ($25,475 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the gap and go strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the gap and go strategy took 139 trades, won 22.3% of them and made 28.50 points ($1,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the gap and go strategy took 160 trades, won 28.1% of them and made 1,393.75 points ($27,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## First 15-minute candle direction backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/first-15-minute-candle-direction. Library name: First 15-minute candle direction. Family: Opening and session. Also called: first 15 minute candle strategy, opening candle direction, 09:30 candle strategy, buy when the 09:30-09:45 candle is green (entering at 09:45), short when the 09:30-09:45 candle is red (entering at 09:45). ### What it is This strategy looks at the 09:30 to 09:45 ET candle: if it is green it goes long at 09:45, and if it is red it goes short. It exits at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades on the session timeframe, won 56.0% of them and finished 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 272 long trades on the session timeframe won 60.7% and made 6,565.00 points ($131,300 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 507 trades on the session timeframe, won 54.4% of them and finished 1,434.75 points ($71,738 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 09:30-09:45 candle is green (entering at 09:45)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 272 long trades, won 60.7% of them and made 6,565.00 points ($131,300 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 09:30-09:45 candle is red (entering at 09:45)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 254 short trades, won 51.2% of them and made 452.50 points ($22,625 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on the session timeframe took 513 trades, won 56.0% of them and finished 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of First 15-minute candle direction on ES futures? A: The first 15-minute candle direction strategy won 54.4% of its 507 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell first 15-minute candle direction signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 6,565.00 points on 272 trades (60.7% won) and the short trades made 1,938.75 points on 241 trades (50.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on NQ? A: The first 15-minute candle direction strategy had a max drawdown of 4,606.75 points ($92,135 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 507 trades, won 54.4% of them and made 1,434.75 points ($71,738 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades, won 56.0% of them and made 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Buy the open, sell the close backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/buy-the-open-sell-the-close. Library name: Buy the open, sell the close. Family: Opening and session. Also called: buy the open sell the close, open to close strategy, intraday buy and hold. ### What it is This strategy goes long at the 09:30 ET open every day. It exits at the 15:59 ET close. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 trades on the session timeframe, won 53.0% of them and finished 2,657.75 points ($53,155 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 trades on the session timeframe, won 52.2% of them and finished 373.75 points ($18,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the buy the open, sell the close strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the regular session opens at 09:30 and you exit at 15:59? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 long trades, won 53.0% of them and made 2,657.75 points ($53,155 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the buy the open, sell the close strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the open, sell the close strategy on the session timeframe took 515 trades, won 53.0% of them and finished 2,657.75 points ($53,155 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Buy the open, sell the close on ES futures? A: The buy the open, sell the close strategy won 52.2% of its 515 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the buy the open, sell the close strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the buy the open, sell the close strategy on NQ? A: The buy the open, sell the close strategy had a max drawdown of 4,120.75 points ($82,415 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the buy the open, sell the close strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 trades, won 52.2% of them and made 373.75 points ($18,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the open, sell the close strategy took 515 trades, won 53.0% of them and made 2,657.75 points ($53,155 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Buy the close, sell the next open backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/buy-the-close-sell-the-next-open. Library name: Buy the close, sell the next open. Family: Opening and session. Also called: overnight strategy, overnight hold strategy, close to open strategy. ### What it is This strategy goes long at 15:59 ET every day. It exits at the next 09:30 ET open. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 54.1% of them and finished 5,293.25 points ($105,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 58.0% of them and finished 1,077.75 points ($53,888 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the buy the close, sell the next open strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 15:59 close arrives and you exit at the next 09:30 open? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 long trades, won 54.1% of them and made 5,293.25 points ($105,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the buy the close, sell the next open strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy on the session timeframe took 514 trades, won 54.1% of them and finished 5,293.25 points ($105,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Buy the close, sell the next open on ES futures? A: The buy the close, sell the next open strategy won 58.0% of its 514 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the buy the close, sell the next open strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the buy the close, sell the next open strategy on NQ? A: The buy the close, sell the next open strategy had a max drawdown of 4,340.50 points ($86,810 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the buy the close, sell the next open strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 trades, won 58.0% of them and made 1,077.75 points ($53,888 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the buy the close, sell the next open strategy took 514 trades, won 54.1% of them and made 5,293.25 points ($105,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Previous day high breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/previous-day-high-breakout. Library name: Previous day high breakout. Family: Opening and session. Also called: prior day high breakout, yesterday's high low breakout, previous day high low strategy, buy when price trades above yesterday's regular-hours high, short when price trades below yesterday's regular-hours low. ### What it is This strategy goes long when price trades above yesterday's regular-session high and short when it trades below yesterday's low. It exits at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the previous day high breakout strategy took 449 trades on the session timeframe, won 51.5% of them and finished 2,022.00 points ($40,440 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 261 long trades on the session timeframe won 55.6% and made 2,400.50 points ($48,010 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the previous day high breakout strategy took 449 trades on the session timeframe, won 49.4% of them and finished -602.50 points (-$30,125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the previous day high breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price trades above yesterday's regular-hours high? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the previous day high breakout strategy took 261 long trades, won 55.6% of them and made 2,400.50 points ($48,010 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price trades below yesterday's regular-hours low? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the previous day high breakout strategy took 188 short trades, won 41.0% of them and made -462.00 points (-$23,100 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the previous day high breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the previous day high breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 449 trades, won 51.5% of them and finished 2,022.00 points ($40,440 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Previous day high breakout on ES futures? A: The previous day high breakout strategy won 49.4% of its 449 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell previous day high breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,400.50 points on 261 trades (55.6% won) and the short trades made -378.50 points on 188 trades (45.7% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the previous day high breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The previous day high breakout strategy took 449 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the previous day high breakout strategy on NQ? A: The previous day high breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 6,396.50 points ($127,930 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the previous day high breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the previous day high breakout strategy took 449 trades, won 49.4% of them and made -602.50 points (-$30,125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the previous day high breakout strategy took 449 trades, won 51.5% of them and made 2,022.00 points ($40,440 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Overnight high/low breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/overnight-high-low-breakout. Library name: Overnight high / low breakout. Family: Opening and session. Also called: Globex range breakout, overnight range breakout, overnight high breakout, buy when price breaks above the overnight high (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours, short when price breaks below the overnight low (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours. ### What it is The overnight range is the high and low from 18:00 to 09:30 ET. This strategy goes long on a regular-session break of the overnight high and short on a break below the overnight low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades on the session timeframe, won 49.5% of them and finished 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 245 long trades on the session timeframe won 55.5% and made 5,516.75 points ($110,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 472 trades on the session timeframe, won 50.6% of them and finished 812.75 points ($40,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the overnight high/low breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the overnight high (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 245 long trades, won 55.5% of them and made 5,516.75 points ($110,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the overnight low (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 208 short trades, won 46.6% of them and made 199.25 points ($9,963 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the overnight high/low breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 467 trades, won 49.5% of them and finished 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Overnight high / low breakout on ES futures? A: The overnight high/low breakout strategy won 50.6% of its 472 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell overnight high/low breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 5,516.75 points on 245 trades (55.5% won) and the short trades made 304.50 points on 222 trades (42.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the overnight high/low breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the overnight high/low breakout strategy on NQ? A: The overnight high/low breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,156.00 points ($43,120 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the overnight high/low breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 472 trades, won 50.6% of them and made 812.75 points ($40,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades, won 49.5% of them and made 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Power hour backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/power-hour. Library name: Power hour. Family: Opening and session. Also called: power hour strategy, last hour strategy, 3pm strategy, buy when price is above the 09:30 open at 15:00 (entering at 15:00 and exiting at 15:59), short when price is below the 09:30 open at 15:00 (entering at 15:00 and exiting at 15:59). ### What it is Power hour is the last hour of the regular session. At 15:00 ET this strategy goes long if price is above the 09:30 open and short if it is below, and exits at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the power hour strategy took 496 trades on the session timeframe, won 49.0% of them and finished -1,098.75 points (-$21,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 268 long trades on the session timeframe won 48.5% and made -962.00 points (-$19,240 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the power hour strategy took 494 trades on the session timeframe, won 47.0% of them and finished -2.00 points (-$100 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the power hour strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price is above the 09:30 open at 15:00 (entering at 15:00 and exiting at 15:59)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the power hour strategy took 268 long trades, won 48.5% of them and made -962.00 points (-$19,240 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price is below the 09:30 open at 15:00 (entering at 15:00 and exiting at 15:59)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the power hour strategy took 239 short trades, won 47.7% of them and made 104.50 points ($5,225 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the power hour strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the power hour strategy on the session timeframe took 496 trades, won 49.0% of them and finished -1,098.75 points (-$21,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Power hour on ES futures? A: The power hour strategy won 47.0% of its 494 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell power hour signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -962.00 points on 268 trades (48.5% won) and the short trades made -136.75 points on 228 trades (49.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the power hour strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The power hour strategy took 496 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the power hour strategy on NQ? A: The power hour strategy had a max drawdown of 3,147.75 points ($62,955 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the power hour strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the power hour strategy took 494 trades, won 47.0% of them and made -2.00 points (-$100 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the power hour strategy took 496 trades, won 49.0% of them and made -1,098.75 points (-$21,975 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Floor pivot R1/S1 breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/floor-pivot-r1-s1-breakout. Library name: Floor pivot R1 / S1 breakout. Family: Opening and session. Also called: pivot point breakout, floor pivots R1 S1 strategy, pivot point strategy, buy when a 5-minute bar closes above the R1 floor pivot, short when a 5-minute bar closes below the S1 floor pivot. ### What it is Classic floor pivots are calculated from yesterday's regular-session high, low and close, giving a pivot with resistance levels (R1) and support levels (S1). This strategy goes long on a 5-minute close above R1 and short on a close below S1, with the stop at the pivot and an exit at 15:59 ET. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 411 trades on the session timeframe, won 47.0% of them and finished -1,047.25 points (-$20,945 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 225 long trades on the session timeframe won 50.7% and made 414.75 points ($8,295 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 414 trades on the session timeframe, won 45.9% of them and finished -328.50 points (-$16,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time a 5-minute bar closes above the R1 floor pivot? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 225 long trades, won 50.7% of them and made 414.75 points ($8,295 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time a 5-minute bar closes below the S1 floor pivot? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 184 short trades, won 40.2% of them and made -288.25 points (-$14,412 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 411 trades, won 47.0% of them and finished -1,047.25 points (-$20,945 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Floor pivot R1 / S1 breakout on ES futures? A: The floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy won 45.9% of its 414 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell floor pivot R1/S1 breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 414.75 points on 225 trades (50.7% won) and the short trades made -1,462.00 points on 186 trades (42.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 411 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy on NQ? A: The floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 4,689.00 points ($93,780 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 414 trades, won 45.9% of them and made -328.50 points (-$16,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the floor pivot R1/S1 breakout strategy took 411 trades, won 47.0% of them and made -1,047.25 points (-$20,945 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Camarilla H3/L3 fade backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/camarilla-h3-l3-fade. Library name: Camarilla H3 / L3 fade. Family: Opening and session. Also called: Camarilla pivots strategy, Camarilla H3 L3, Camarilla reversal strategy, buy when price first touches the Camarilla L3 level, short when price first touches the Camarilla H3 level. ### What it is Camarilla pivots are levels calculated from yesterday's range, labeled H1 to H4 above and L1 to L4 below. This strategy shorts the first touch of H3 and goes long at the first touch of L3, with the stop at H4 or L4, the target at the opposite level 3, and an exit at 15:59 ET otherwise. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 504 trades on the session timeframe, won 19.4% of them and finished -956.25 points (-$19,125 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 226 long trades on the session timeframe won 18.6% and made -451.50 points (-$9,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 504 trades on the session timeframe, won 23.8% of them and finished 202.00 points ($10,100 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price first touches the Camarilla L3 level? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 226 long trades, won 18.6% of them and made -451.50 points (-$9,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price first touches the Camarilla H3 level? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 280 short trades, won 26.1% of them and made 377.00 points ($18,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy on the session timeframe took 504 trades, won 19.4% of them and finished -956.25 points (-$19,125 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Camarilla H3 / L3 fade on ES futures? A: The Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy won 23.8% of its 504 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Camarilla H3/L3 fade signals on NQ? A: On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -451.50 points on 226 trades (18.6% won) and the short trades made -504.75 points on 278 trades (20.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 504 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy on NQ? A: The Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy had a max drawdown of 2,310.75 points ($46,215 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 504 trades, won 23.8% of them and made 202.00 points ($10,100 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Camarilla H3/L3 fade strategy took 504 trades, won 19.4% of them and made -956.25 points (-$19,125 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Price crossing the 20 EMA backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/price-crosses-ema-20. Library name: Price crosses EMA 20. Family: Moving averages. Also called: price cross EMA 20, 20 EMA cross strategy, close above 20 EMA, buy when price closes above the 20 EMA, short when price closes below the 20 EMA. ### What it is The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) is a moving average that weights recent prices more heavily. This strategy goes long when the close crosses above the EMA 20, short when it crosses below, and reverses on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.5% of them and finished 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 819 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 32.5% and made 2,074.25 points ($41,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,627 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.3% of them and finished 243.75 points ($12,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 20 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 819 long trades, won 32.5% of them and made 2,074.25 points ($41,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 456.75 points on 2,566 trades on the 5-minute chart, 143.50 points on 229 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,077.00 points on 37 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 20 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 814 short trades, won 28.6% of them and made -366.25 points (-$18,312 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 206.25 points on 2,483 trades on the 5-minute chart, 181.75 points on 278 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,061.75 points on 35 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,616 trades, won 30.5% of them and finished 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Price crosses EMA 20 on ES futures? A: The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy won 30.3% of its 1,627 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 26.7% of 4,951 trades on the 5-minute chart, 39.5% of 517 trades on the 1-hour chart and 24.3% of 70 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy made -2,425.50 points on 5,126 trades on the 5-minute chart, 112.75 points on 1,616 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,113.00 points on 463 trades on the 1-hour chart and -906.75 points on 74 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell price crossing the 20 EMA signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,074.25 points on 819 trades (32.5% won) and the short trades made -1,961.50 points on 797 trades (28.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,126 on the 5-minute chart, 463 on the 1-hour chart and 74 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on NQ? A: The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy had a max drawdown of 4,132.00 points ($82,640 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,514.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,961.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,621.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,627 trades, won 30.3% of them and made 243.75 points ($12,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades, won 30.5% of them and made 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Price crossing the 50 SMA backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/price-crosses-sma-50. Library name: Price crosses SMA 50. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 50 SMA cross, 50 period SMA cross, close above 50 SMA, buy when price closes above the 50 SMA, short when price closes below the 50 SMA. ### What it is The 50-period simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the last 50 closes. This strategy goes long on a close above the SMA 50, short on a close below it, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.1% of them and finished 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 710 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 35.9% and made 3,477.00 points ($69,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,417 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.0% of them and finished 1,652.00 points ($82,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 50 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 710 long trades, won 35.9% of them and made 3,477.00 points ($69,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 4,375.00 points on 1,564 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,431.00 points on 396 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,786.75 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 50 SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 693 short trades, won 29.7% of them and made 509.75 points ($25,488 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -8.00 points on 1,620 trades on the 5-minute chart, -345.25 points on 343 trades on the 1-hour chart and -480.75 points on 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,382 trades, won 32.1% of them and finished 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Price crosses SMA 50 on ES futures? A: The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy won 32.0% of its 1,417 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 23.8% of 3,267 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.5% of 758 trades on the 1-hour chart and 32.4% of 37 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy made 5,469.50 points on 3,115 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,332.25 points on 1,382 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,432.00 points on 715 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,512.75 points on 45 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell price crossing the 50 SMA signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 3,477.00 points on 710 trades (35.9% won) and the short trades made -144.75 points on 672 trades (28.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,115 on the 5-minute chart, 715 on the 1-hour chart and 45 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on NQ? A: The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy had a max drawdown of 4,029.75 points ($80,595 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,367.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,411.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,558.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,417 trades, won 32.0% of them and made 1,652.00 points ($82,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades, won 32.1% of them and made 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Price crossing the 200 SMA backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/price-crosses-sma-200. Library name: Price crosses SMA 200. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 200 SMA cross, 200 period SMA cross, close above 200 SMA, buy when price closes above the 200 SMA, short when price closes below the 200 SMA. ### What it is The 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the last 200 closes. This strategy goes long on a close above the SMA 200, short on a close below it, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 1,043 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.7% of them and finished -2,260.75 points (-$45,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 560 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 40.0% and made 680.50 points ($13,610 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 1,107 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 34.4% of them and finished -305.50 points (-$15,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 560 long trades, won 40.0% of them and made 680.50 points ($13,610 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,908.75 points on 1,058 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,569.00 points on 370 trades on the 1-hour chart and 7,086.50 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 200 SMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 516 short trades, won 30.6% of them and made -469.00 points (-$23,450 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 148.50 points on 1,114 trades on the 5-minute chart, -200.50 points on 272 trades on the 1-hour chart and -280.00 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,043 trades, won 35.7% of them and finished -2,260.75 points (-$45,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Price crosses SMA 200 on ES futures? A: The price crossing the 200 SMA strategy won 34.4% of its 1,107 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 21.0% of 2,272 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.4% of 661 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy made 2,537.00 points on 2,077 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,260.75 points on 1,043 trades on the 15-minute chart, 708.00 points on 622 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,112.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell price crossing the 200 SMA signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 680.50 points on 560 trades (40.0% won) and the short trades made -2,941.25 points on 483 trades (30.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 1,043 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,077 on the 5-minute chart, 622 on the 1-hour chart and 11 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy on NQ? A: The price crossing the 200 SMA strategy had a max drawdown of 6,868.25 points ($137,365 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,455.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,472.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,211.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 1,107 trades, won 34.4% of them and made -305.50 points (-$15,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 200 SMA strategy took 1,043 trades, won 35.7% of them and made -2,260.75 points (-$45,215 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## EMA 12/26 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-12-26-cross. Library name: EMA 12 / 26 cross. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 12 26 EMA crossover, 12 and 26 EMA strategy, buy when the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA, short when the 12 EMA crosses below the 26 EMA. ### What it is An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 12-period EMA crosses above the 26-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 233 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.8% and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 494 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.7% of them and finished 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 233 long trades, won 46.8% of them and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -908.50 points on 652 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,952.00 points on 73 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,888.75 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 12 EMA crosses below the 26 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 254 short trades, won 44.1% of them and made 442.75 points ($22,138 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 399.50 points on 643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 8.75 points on 85 trades on the 1-hour chart and -808.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 12 / 26 cross on ES futures? A: The EMA 12/26 cross strategy won 44.7% of its 494 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.3% of 1,287 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.3% of 160 trades on the 1-hour chart and 22.2% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the EMA 12/26 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy made 671.00 points on 1,290 trades on the 5-minute chart, 696.00 points on 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,908.75 points on 153 trades on the 1-hour chart and -579.00 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 12/26 cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -78.50 points on 233 trades (46.8% won) and the short trades made 774.50 points on 221 trades (40.7% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,290 on the 5-minute chart, 153 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on NQ? A: The EMA 12/26 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,214.75 points ($84,295 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,798.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,656.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,759.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 494 trades, won 44.7% of them and made 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and made 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## EMA 20/50 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-20-50-cross. Library name: EMA 20 / 50 cross. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 20 50 EMA crossover, 20 and 50 EMA strategy, buy when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, short when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA. ### What it is An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.7% of them and finished 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 156 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 48.1% and made 1,099.00 points ($21,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 321 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished 207.00 points ($10,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 156 long trades, won 48.1% of them and made 1,099.00 points ($21,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,875.25 points on 358 trades on the 5-minute chart, -579.75 points on 48 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,674.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 182 short trades, won 45.6% of them and made 180.75 points ($9,038 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 131.75 points on 375 trades on the 5-minute chart, 80.75 points on 45 trades on the 1-hour chart and -413.50 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 329 trades, won 44.7% of them and finished 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 20 / 50 cross on ES futures? A: The EMA 20/50 cross strategy won 46.1% of its 321 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 40.5% of 748 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.1% of 93 trades on the 1-hour chart and 37.5% of 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the EMA 20/50 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy made -1,273.25 points on 695 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,209.50 points on 329 trades on the 15-minute chart, -729.75 points on 88 trades on the 1-hour chart and 694.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 20/50 cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,099.00 points on 156 trades (48.1% won) and the short trades made 1,110.50 points on 173 trades (41.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 695 on the 5-minute chart, 88 on the 1-hour chart and 8 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on NQ? A: The EMA 20/50 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 1,991.25 points ($39,825 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,121.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,617.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,182.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 321 trades, won 46.1% of them and made 207.00 points ($10,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades, won 44.7% of them and made 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Golden cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/golden-cross-death-cross-sma-50-200. Library name: Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200). Family: Moving averages. Also called: death cross, 50/200 moving average cross, 50 200 SMA crossover, golden cross death cross strategy, buy when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross), short when the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA (a death cross). ### What it is A golden cross is the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-period SMA, and a death cross is the reverse. This strategy goes long on the golden cross, short on the death cross, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, going long on the golden cross (SMA 50 above SMA 200) and short on the death cross, exiting on the opposite cross, took 4 trades on the daily chart: the longs made 3,701.50 points and the shorts made -9,065.75 points, -5,364.25 points in total (-$107,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 4 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 2 long trades on the daily chart won 100.0% and made 3,701.50 points ($74,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, going long on the golden cross (SMA 50 above SMA 200) and short on the death cross, exiting on the opposite cross, took 2 trades on the daily chart: the long made 1,235.50 points and the short made -1,200.00 points, 35.50 points in total ($1,775 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 2 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and finished -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the golden cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 1-hour chart, the golden cross strategy took 13 long trades, won 38.5% of them and made -309.75 points (-$6,195 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,701.50 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA (a death cross)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 1-hour chart, the golden cross strategy took 16 short trades, won 43.8% of them and made 21.25 points ($1,063 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -1,200.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the golden cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy on the 1-hour chart took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) on ES futures? A: The golden cross strategy won 42.3% of its 26 trades on the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 50.0% of 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the golden cross strategy better on the 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy made 93.25 points on 20 trades on the 1-hour chart and -5,364.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell golden cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -309.75 points on 13 trades (38.5% won) and the short trades made 403.00 points on 7 trades (42.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the golden cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The golden cross strategy took 20 trades on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 4 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the golden cross strategy on NQ? A: The golden cross strategy had a max drawdown of 675.75 points ($13,515 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 8,533.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the golden cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the golden cross strategy took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and made -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Triple EMA stack (4/9/18) backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/triple-ema-stack-4-9-18. Library name: Triple EMA stack 4 / 9 / 18. Family: Moving averages. Also called: 4 9 18 EMA strategy, buy when the 4 EMA moves above the 9 EMA, which is above the 18 EMA, for the first time, short when the 4 EMA moves below the 9 EMA, which is below the 18 EMA, for the first time. ### What it is Three exponential moving averages (EMAs) of 4, 9 and 18 periods are stacked in order when they run in one direction. This strategy goes long on the first bar with EMA 4 above EMA 9 above EMA 18, short on the first bar with the reverse order, and exits when the stack breaks. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 909 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.9% of them and finished -457.00 points (-$9,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 456 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 41.7% and made 1,482.25 points ($29,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 958 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.6% of them and finished -357.75 points (-$17,887 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 4 EMA moves above the 9 EMA, which is above the 18 EMA, for the first time? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 456 long trades, won 41.7% of them and made 1,482.25 points ($29,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,931.50 points on 1,512 trades on the 5-minute chart, 567.00 points on 163 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,750.25 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 4 EMA moves below the 9 EMA, which is below the 18 EMA, for the first time? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 481 short trades, won 38.5% of them and made -131.25 points (-$6,562 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 182.00 points on 1,382 trades on the 5-minute chart, 78.75 points on 181 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,407.00 points on 17 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy on the 15-minute chart took 909 trades, won 38.9% of them and finished -457.00 points (-$9,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Triple EMA stack 4 / 9 / 18 on ES futures? A: The triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy won 38.6% of its 958 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 35.0% of 2,832 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.3% of 342 trades on the 1-hour chart and 25.0% of 40 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy made 678.00 points on 2,915 trades on the 5-minute chart, -457.00 points on 909 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,190.75 points on 320 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,983.50 points on 41 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell triple EMA stack (4/9/18) signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,482.25 points on 456 trades (41.7% won) and the short trades made -1,939.25 points on 453 trades (36.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 909 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,915 on the 5-minute chart, 320 on the 1-hour chart and 41 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy on NQ? A: The triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy had a max drawdown of 4,603.25 points ($92,065 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,709.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,370.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,340.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 958 trades, won 38.6% of them and made -357.75 points (-$17,887 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the triple EMA stack (4/9/18) strategy took 909 trades, won 38.9% of them and made -457.00 points (-$9,140 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Hull moving average turn backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/hull-ma-20-turn. Library name: Hull MA 20 turn. Family: Moving averages. Also called: HMA 20 strategy, Hull MA strategy, Hull moving average 20, buy when the 20-period Hull moving average turns up, short when the 20-period Hull moving average turns down. ### What it is The Hull moving average (HMA 20) is a fast-reacting moving average built from weighted averages. This strategy goes long when the HMA 20 turns up (rises after falling), short when it turns down, and exits on the opposite turn. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.9% of them and finished -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 698 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.1% and made -1,243.25 points (-$24,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,378 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.1% of them and finished -622.75 points (-$31,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Hull moving average turn strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20-period Hull moving average turns up? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 698 long trades, won 42.1% of them and made -1,243.25 points (-$24,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -569.00 points on 2,136 trades on the 5-minute chart, -506.00 points on 175 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,964.75 points on 29 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the 20-period Hull moving average turns down? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 694 short trades, won 37.0% of them and made -534.25 points (-$26,712 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 230.50 points on 2,071 trades on the 5-minute chart, 615.75 points on 195 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,409.50 points on 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Hull moving average turn strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,410 trades, won 39.9% of them and finished -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Hull MA 20 turn on ES futures? A: The Hull moving average turn strategy won 40.1% of its 1,378 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.0% of 4,121 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.4% of 367 trades on the 1-hour chart and 29.5% of 61 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Hull moving average turn strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy made -5,981.75 points on 4,282 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,317.50 points on 1,410 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,046.75 points on 344 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,980.25 points on 57 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Hull moving average turn signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,243.25 points on 698 trades (42.1% won) and the short trades made -2,074.25 points on 712 trades (37.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Hull moving average turn strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 4,282 on the 5-minute chart, 344 on the 1-hour chart and 57 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Hull moving average turn strategy on NQ? A: The Hull moving average turn strategy had a max drawdown of 5,357.75 points ($107,155 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 8,439.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,491.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,095.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Hull moving average turn strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,378 trades, won 40.1% of them and made -622.75 points (-$31,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades, won 39.9% of them and made -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## 20 EMA pullback in a trend backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ema-20-pullback-in-a-trend. Library name: EMA 20 pullback in a trend. Family: Moving averages. Also called: EMA pullback strategy, pullback to the 20 EMA, trend pullback strategy, buy when in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA, short when in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA. ### What it is An uptrend is defined as a close above the EMA 50 with the EMA 20 above the EMA 50, and a pullback is a bar whose low touches the EMA 20. This strategy goes long when that bar closes above the EMA 20, with the stop 1 tick under the bar's low and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 526 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.0% and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.7% of them and finished 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 526 long trades, won 38.0% of them and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,736.50 points on 1,403 trades on the 5-minute chart, 145.50 points on 242 trades on the 1-hour chart and -264.50 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 530 short trades, won 36.4% of them and made -46.75 points (-$2,337 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -123.00 points on 1,279 trades on the 5-minute chart, 249.75 points on 178 trades on the 1-hour chart and 539.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of EMA 20 pullback in a trend on ES futures? A: The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy won 37.7% of its 1,089 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.4% of 2,688 trades on the 5-minute chart, 42.9% of 441 trades on the 1-hour chart and 45.2% of 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy made 1,638.25 points on 2,648 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,069.75 points on 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,567.75 points on 401 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,772.75 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell 20 EMA pullback in a trend signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,944.50 points on 526 trades (38.0% won) and the short trades made 125.25 points on 489 trades (37.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,648 on the 5-minute chart, 401 on the 1-hour chart and 38 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ? A: The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy had a max drawdown of 3,644.00 points ($72,880 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,318.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,816.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,769.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades, won 37.7% of them and made 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and made 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## KAMA cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/kama-10-2-30-cross. Library name: KAMA (10, 2, 30) cross. Family: Moving averages. Also called: Kaufman adaptive moving average, KAMA 10 2 30 strategy, adaptive moving average strategy, buy when price closes above the KAMA (10, 2, 30), short when price closes below the KAMA (10, 2, 30). ### What it is The Kaufman adaptive moving average (KAMA with 10, 2 and 30 settings) slows down in choppy markets and speeds up in trends. This strategy goes long on a close above the KAMA, short on a close below it, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the KAMA cross strategy took 2,112 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.3% of them and finished 3,290.75 points ($65,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 1,069 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 35.2% and made 3,456.25 points ($69,125 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the KAMA cross strategy took 2,128 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.8% of them and finished 746.00 points ($37,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the KAMA cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the KAMA (10, 2, 30)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the KAMA cross strategy took 1,069 long trades, won 35.2% of them and made 3,456.25 points ($69,125 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,729.00 points on 2,874 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,303.00 points on 455 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,297.50 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the KAMA (10, 2, 30)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the KAMA cross strategy took 1,049 short trades, won 29.7% of them and made 56.75 points ($2,838 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -181.00 points on 2,938 trades on the 5-minute chart, 276.25 points on 430 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,567.75 points on 44 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the KAMA cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the KAMA cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 2,112 trades, won 32.3% of them and finished 3,290.75 points ($65,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of KAMA (10, 2, 30) cross on ES futures? A: The KAMA cross strategy won 32.8% of its 2,128 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 25.9% of 5,883 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.0% of 891 trades on the 1-hour chart and 23.0% of 87 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the KAMA cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the KAMA cross strategy made 2,177.50 points on 5,746 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,290.75 points on 2,112 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,176.00 points on 862 trades on the 1-hour chart and -465.75 points on 75 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell KAMA cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 3,456.25 points on 1,069 trades (35.2% won) and the short trades made -165.50 points on 1,043 trades (29.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the KAMA cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The KAMA cross strategy took 2,112 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,746 on the 5-minute chart, 862 on the 1-hour chart and 75 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the KAMA cross strategy on NQ? A: The KAMA cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,188.00 points ($63,760 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,409.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,467.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,333.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the KAMA cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the KAMA cross strategy took 2,128 trades, won 32.8% of them and made 746.00 points ($37,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the KAMA cross strategy took 2,112 trades, won 32.3% of them and made 3,290.75 points ($65,815 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## VWAP cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/vwap-cross. Library name: VWAP cross. Family: Moving averages. Also called: price crossing VWAP, VWAP crossover strategy, close above VWAP, buy when price closes above session VWAP, short when price closes below session VWAP. ### What it is The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is the session's average price weighted by volume. This strategy goes long when the close crosses above the session VWAP, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP cross strategy took 1,331 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 28.4% of them and finished -4,845.25 points (-$96,905 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 668 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 30.4% and made -3,111.25 points (-$62,225 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWAP cross strategy took 1,431 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 28.8% of them and finished -138.25 points (-$6,912 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute and 1-hour results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the VWAP cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above session VWAP? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the VWAP cross strategy took 668 long trades, won 30.4% of them and made -3,111.25 points (-$62,225 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -594.50 points on 1,120 trades on the 5-minute chart and -2,509.50 points on 318 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below session VWAP? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the VWAP cross strategy took 719 short trades, won 27.8% of them and made -471.75 points (-$23,587 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -484.00 points on 1,283 trades on the 5-minute chart and -62.25 points on 383 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the VWAP cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,331 trades, won 28.4% of them and finished -4,845.25 points (-$96,905 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of VWAP cross on ES futures? A: The VWAP cross strategy won 28.8% of its 1,431 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 19.9% of 2,557 trades on the 5-minute chart and 37.6% of 743 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the VWAP cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute or 1-hour chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP cross strategy made -926.50 points on 2,235 trades on the 5-minute chart, -4,845.25 points on 1,331 trades on the 15-minute chart and -1,402.25 points on 634 trades on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell VWAP cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -3,111.25 points on 668 trades (30.4% won) and the short trades made -1,734.00 points on 663 trades (26.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the VWAP cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The VWAP cross strategy took 1,331 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,235 on the 5-minute chart and 634 on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the VWAP cross strategy on NQ? A: The VWAP cross strategy had a max drawdown of 5,617.25 points ($112,345 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,950.75 points on the 5-minute chart and 4,706.50 points on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the VWAP cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the VWAP cross strategy took 1,431 trades, won 28.8% of them and made -138.25 points (-$6,912 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the VWAP cross strategy took 1,331 trades, won 28.4% of them and made -4,845.25 points (-$96,905 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Donchian 20 breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/donchian-20-breakout-turtle-system-1. Library name: Donchian 20 breakout (Turtle system 1). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Turtle system 1, 20 bar breakout strategy, Donchian channel breakout, buy when price breaks above the prior 20-bar high, short when price breaks below the prior 20-bar low. ### What it is The Donchian channel marks the highest high and lowest low of the last N bars, and the Turtle system 1 uses N = 20. This strategy goes long on a break above the prior 20-bar high and short on a break below the 20-bar low, and exits on a break of the 10-bar low (long) or 10-bar high (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 627 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.8% of them and finished 1,479.00 points ($29,580 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 340 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 52.9% and made 1,887.50 points ($37,750 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 649 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.2% of them and finished -483.75 points (-$24,187 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Donchian 20 breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the prior 20-bar high? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 340 long trades, won 52.9% of them and made 1,887.50 points ($37,750 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,559.25 points on 691 trades on the 5-minute chart, -824.50 points on 204 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,376.75 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the prior 20-bar low? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 306 short trades, won 42.8% of them and made -417.50 points (-$20,875 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -186.75 points on 637 trades on the 5-minute chart, 454.00 points on 155 trades on the 1-hour chart and -886.50 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Donchian 20 breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 627 trades, won 49.8% of them and finished 1,479.00 points ($29,580 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Donchian 20 breakout (Turtle system 1) on ES futures? A: The Donchian 20 breakout strategy won 46.2% of its 649 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 41.2% of 1,311 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.9% of 379 trades on the 1-hour chart and 35.3% of 17 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Donchian 20 breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy made 4,056.50 points on 1,339 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,479.00 points on 627 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,012.75 points on 343 trades on the 1-hour chart and -3,652.50 points on 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Donchian 20 breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,887.50 points on 340 trades (52.9% won) and the short trades made -408.50 points on 287 trades (46.0% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Donchian 20 breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 627 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,339 on the 5-minute chart, 343 on the 1-hour chart and 18 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Donchian 20 breakout strategy on NQ? A: The Donchian 20 breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,605.50 points ($72,110 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,605.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,641.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,349.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Donchian 20 breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 649 trades, won 46.2% of them and made -483.75 points (-$24,187 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 20 breakout strategy took 627 trades, won 49.8% of them and made 1,479.00 points ($29,580 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Donchian 55 breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/donchian-55-breakout-turtle-system-2. Library name: Donchian 55 breakout (Turtle system 2). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Turtle system 2, 55 bar breakout strategy, buy when price breaks above the prior 55-bar high, short when price breaks below the prior 55-bar low. ### What it is The Donchian channel marks the highest high and lowest low of the last N bars, and the Turtle system 2 uses N = 55. This strategy goes long on a break above the 55-bar high and short below the 55-bar low, and exits on a break of the 20-bar low (long) or 20-bar high (short). ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 493 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 50.9% of them and finished 1,630.00 points ($32,600 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 269 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 52.4% and made 1,303.00 points ($26,060 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 522 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.9% of them and finished 290.00 points ($14,500 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Donchian 55 breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the prior 55-bar high? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 269 long trades, won 52.4% of them and made 1,303.00 points ($26,060 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,365.75 points on 408 trades on the 5-minute chart, -681.25 points on 127 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,253.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the prior 55-bar low? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 242 short trades, won 46.3% of them and made 211.75 points ($10,588 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -99.50 points on 365 trades on the 5-minute chart, 300.00 points on 84 trades on the 1-hour chart and -447.00 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Donchian 55 breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 493 trades, won 50.9% of them and finished 1,630.00 points ($32,600 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Donchian 55 breakout (Turtle system 2) on ES futures? A: The Donchian 55 breakout strategy won 48.9% of its 522 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 42.4% of 780 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.9% of 217 trades on the 1-hour chart and 42.9% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Donchian 55 breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy made 4,709.00 points on 760 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,630.00 points on 493 trades on the 15-minute chart, -782.25 points on 203 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,572.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Donchian 55 breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,303.00 points on 269 trades (52.4% won) and the short trades made 327.00 points on 224 trades (49.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Donchian 55 breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 493 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 760 on the 5-minute chart, 203 on the 1-hour chart and 9 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Donchian 55 breakout strategy on NQ? A: The Donchian 55 breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,260.00 points ($65,200 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,235.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,771.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,829.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Donchian 55 breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 522 trades, won 48.9% of them and made 290.00 points ($14,500 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Donchian 55 breakout strategy took 493 trades, won 50.9% of them and made 1,630.00 points ($32,600 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Keltner channel breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/keltner-channel-breakout-ema-20-2-atr. Library name: Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Keltner breakout strategy, Keltner channel strategy, EMA 20 2 ATR breakout, buy when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), short when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR). ### What it is A Keltner channel places bands 2 average true ranges (ATR) above and below a 20-period EMA. This strategy goes long on a close above the upper band and short on a close below the lower band, and exits on a close back through the middle line. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.5% of them and finished 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 210 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.1% and made 1,788.50 points ($35,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 446 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.0% of them and finished 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Keltner channel breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 210 long trades, won 49.1% of them and made 1,788.50 points ($35,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,898.25 points on 427 trades on the 5-minute chart, 573.75 points on 141 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,426.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 225 short trades, won 42.7% of them and made 497.50 points ($24,875 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 150.50 points on 461 trades on the 5-minute chart, 77.75 points on 108 trades on the 1-hour chart and -526.75 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Keltner channel breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and finished 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) on ES futures? A: The Keltner channel breakout strategy won 46.0% of its 446 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.3% of 914 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.6% of 244 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Keltner channel breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy made 6,637.00 points on 869 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,674.50 points on 433 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,195.00 points on 245 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,693.75 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Keltner channel breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,788.50 points on 210 trades (49.1% won) and the short trades made -114.00 points on 223 trades (36.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Keltner channel breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 869 on the 5-minute chart, 245 on the 1-hour chart and 13 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Keltner channel breakout strategy on NQ? A: The Keltner channel breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,211.50 points ($44,230 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,176.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,761.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,448.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Keltner channel breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 446 trades, won 46.0% of them and made 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and made 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Supertrend backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/supertrend-10-3. Library name: Supertrend (10, 3). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Supertrend 10 3 strategy, Supertrend indicator strategy, Supertrend flip, buy when Supertrend (10, 3) flips up, short when Supertrend (10, 3) flips down. ### What it is The Supertrend (10, 3) is a trailing line set from the average true range that flips from one side of price to the other. This strategy goes long when the Supertrend flips up and short when it flips down, and exits on the opposite flip. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend strategy took 411 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 47.9% of them and finished 1,766.00 points ($35,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 209 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.3% and made 184.25 points ($3,685 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend strategy took 457 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.5% of them and finished 177.00 points ($8,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Supertrend strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips up? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Supertrend strategy took 209 long trades, won 49.3% of them and made 184.25 points ($3,685 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -149.25 points on 488 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,648.50 points on 95 trades on the 1-hour chart and 6,409.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips down? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Supertrend strategy took 234 short trades, won 43.6% of them and made 280.75 points ($14,038 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 767.00 points on 495 trades on the 5-minute chart, -216.75 points on 101 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,218.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Supertrend strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend strategy on the 15-minute chart took 411 trades, won 47.9% of them and finished 1,766.00 points ($35,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Supertrend (10, 3) on ES futures? A: The Supertrend strategy won 45.5% of its 457 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 45.1% of 994 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.5% of 194 trades on the 1-hour chart and 37.5% of 16 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Supertrend strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend strategy made -71.50 points on 971 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,766.00 points on 411 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,166.00 points on 190 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,659.00 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Supertrend signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 184.25 points on 209 trades (49.3% won) and the short trades made 1,581.75 points on 202 trades (46.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Supertrend strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Supertrend strategy took 411 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 971 on the 5-minute chart, 190 on the 1-hour chart and 12 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Supertrend strategy on NQ? A: The Supertrend strategy had a max drawdown of 3,534.50 points ($70,690 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,638.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,527.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,289.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Supertrend strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend strategy took 457 trades, won 45.5% of them and made 177.00 points ($8,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend strategy took 411 trades, won 47.9% of them and made 1,766.00 points ($35,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Parabolic SAR backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/parabolic-sar-0-02-0-2. Library name: Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.2). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: PSAR strategy, Parabolic SAR 0.02 0.2, SAR flip strategy, buy when price flips above the Parabolic SAR dots, short when price flips below the Parabolic SAR dots. ### What it is The Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.2) plots dots that trail price and flip sides when price crosses them. This strategy goes long when price flips above the SAR dots and short when it flips below, and exits on the opposite flip. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 1,287 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.8% of them and finished -2,601.75 points (-$52,035 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 654 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.9% and made -543.50 points (-$10,870 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 1,322 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.0% of them and finished 699.00 points ($34,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Parabolic SAR strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price flips above the Parabolic SAR dots? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 654 long trades, won 46.9% of them and made -543.50 points (-$10,870 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,153.50 points on 1,860 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,440.75 points on 205 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,209.00 points on 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price flips below the Parabolic SAR dots? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 658 short trades, won 40.9% of them and made 327.00 points ($16,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 91.75 points on 1,852 trades on the 5-minute chart, -119.25 points on 238 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,317.75 points on 29 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Parabolic SAR strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Parabolic SAR strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,287 trades, won 42.8% of them and finished -2,601.75 points (-$52,035 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.2) on ES futures? A: The Parabolic SAR strategy won 44.0% of its 1,322 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.6% of 3,700 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.8% of 449 trades on the 1-hour chart and 35.1% of 57 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Parabolic SAR strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Parabolic SAR strategy made -234.25 points on 3,717 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,601.75 points on 1,287 trades on the 15-minute chart, -2,813.50 points on 412 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,508.25 points on 49 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Parabolic SAR signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -543.50 points on 654 trades (46.9% won) and the short trades made -2,058.25 points on 633 trades (38.6% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Parabolic SAR strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Parabolic SAR strategy took 1,287 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,717 on the 5-minute chart, 412 on the 1-hour chart and 49 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Parabolic SAR strategy on NQ? A: The Parabolic SAR strategy had a max drawdown of 5,045.75 points ($100,915 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,117.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 5,166.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,649.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Parabolic SAR strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 1,322 trades, won 44.0% of them and made 699.00 points ($34,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Parabolic SAR strategy took 1,287 trades, won 42.8% of them and made -2,601.75 points (-$52,035 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## ADX and DI cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/adx-25-with-di-cross. Library name: ADX 25 with DI cross. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: ADX 25 strategy, DMI cross strategy, +DI -DI crossover, buy when +DI crosses above -DI while ADX 14 is above 25, short when -DI crosses above +DI while ADX 14 is above 25. ### What it is The average directional index (ADX) measures trend strength, and the +DI and -DI lines measure upward and downward movement. This strategy goes long when +DI crosses above -DI while ADX(14) is above 25 (short on the mirror) and exits on the opposite DI cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 276 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.2% of them and finished -44.75 points (-$895 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 139 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.2% and made 332.00 points ($6,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 291 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 34.7% of them and finished 425.25 points ($21,263 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the ADX and DI cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time +DI crosses above -DI while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 139 long trades, won 43.2% of them and made 332.00 points ($6,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 616.00 points on 323 trades on the 5-minute chart, 647.75 points on 52 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,123.00 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time -DI crosses above +DI while ADX 14 is above 25? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 150 short trades, won 33.3% of them and made 520.50 points ($26,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 161.50 points on 340 trades on the 5-minute chart, -71.50 points on 58 trades on the 1-hour chart and -595.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the ADX and DI cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the ADX and DI cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 276 trades, won 40.2% of them and finished -44.75 points (-$895 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of ADX 25 with DI cross on ES futures? A: The ADX and DI cross strategy won 34.7% of its 291 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.3% of 678 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.7% of 113 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the ADX and DI cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the ADX and DI cross strategy made -1,940.50 points on 612 trades on the 5-minute chart, -44.75 points on 276 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,613.50 points on 112 trades on the 1-hour chart and -455.00 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell ADX and DI cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 332.00 points on 139 trades (43.2% won) and the short trades made -376.75 points on 137 trades (37.2% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the ADX and DI cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The ADX and DI cross strategy took 276 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 612 on the 5-minute chart, 112 on the 1-hour chart and 7 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the ADX and DI cross strategy on NQ? A: The ADX and DI cross strategy had a max drawdown of 1,745.75 points ($34,915 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,230.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,069.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,016.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the ADX and DI cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 291 trades, won 34.7% of them and made 425.25 points ($21,263 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the ADX and DI cross strategy took 276 trades, won 40.2% of them and made -44.75 points (-$895 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ichimoku-tenkan-kijun-cross. Library name: Ichimoku Tenkan / Kijun cross. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Tenkan Kijun cross, Ichimoku TK cross, Ichimoku crossover strategy, buy when the Ichimoku Tenkan (9) crosses above the Kijun (26), short when the Ichimoku Tenkan (9) crosses below the Kijun (26). ### What it is In Ichimoku, the Tenkan-sen (9 periods) and Kijun-sen (26 periods) are two midpoint lines of recent highs and lows. This strategy goes long when the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 580 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 47.4% of them and finished 3,859.00 points ($77,180 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 299 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.8% and made 2,324.25 points ($46,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 607 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.8% of them and finished 65.75 points ($3,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Ichimoku Tenkan (9) crosses above the Kijun (26)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 299 long trades, won 51.8% of them and made 2,324.25 points ($46,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,187.75 points on 887 trades on the 5-minute chart, 95.50 points on 81 trades on the 1-hour chart and 7,188.00 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Ichimoku Tenkan (9) crosses below the Kijun (26)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 299 short trades, won 43.5% of them and made -28.50 points (-$1,425 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 288.75 points on 807 trades on the 5-minute chart, 538.00 points on 81 trades on the 1-hour chart and -733.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 580 trades, won 47.4% of them and finished 3,859.00 points ($77,180 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Ichimoku Tenkan / Kijun cross on ES futures? A: The Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy won 45.8% of its 607 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 41.4% of 1,626 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.7% of 163 trades on the 1-hour chart and 39.1% of 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy made 1,155.50 points on 1,756 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,859.00 points on 580 trades on the 15-minute chart, -63.50 points on 153 trades on the 1-hour chart and 6,107.00 points on 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,324.25 points on 299 trades (51.8% won) and the short trades made 1,534.75 points on 281 trades (42.7% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 580 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,756 on the 5-minute chart, 153 on the 1-hour chart and 24 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy on NQ? A: The Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy had a max drawdown of 2,166.00 points ($43,320 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,777.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,142.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,646.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 607 trades, won 45.8% of them and made 65.75 points ($3,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun cross strategy took 580 trades, won 47.4% of them and made 3,859.00 points ($77,180 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Ichimoku cloud breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/ichimoku-cloud-breakout. Library name: Ichimoku cloud breakout. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Ichimoku cloud strategy, price above the Ichimoku cloud, Kumo breakout, buy when price closes above the Ichimoku cloud, short when price closes below the Ichimoku cloud. ### What it is The Ichimoku cloud is the band between the two leading spans, Senkou Span A and B. This strategy goes long on a close above the cloud, short on a close below it, and exits when price closes back inside the cloud. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 1,218 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.2% of them and finished 1,421.75 points ($28,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 647 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 35.6% and made 1,839.50 points ($36,790 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 1,224 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 33.3% of them and finished 425.75 points ($21,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the Ichimoku cloud? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 647 long trades, won 35.6% of them and made 1,839.50 points ($36,790 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 4,511.50 points on 1,191 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,055.25 points on 353 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,702.50 points on 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the Ichimoku cloud? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 570 short trades, won 31.2% of them and made 26.75 points ($1,338 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 162.25 points on 1,180 trades on the 5-minute chart, -533.00 points on 259 trades on the 1-hour chart and -665.25 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,218 trades, won 32.2% of them and finished 1,421.75 points ($28,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Ichimoku cloud breakout on ES futures? A: The Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy won 33.3% of its 1,224 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 25.6% of 2,415 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.1% of 636 trades on the 1-hour chart and 28.0% of 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy made 5,060.50 points on 2,303 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,421.75 points on 1,218 trades on the 15-minute chart, -565.50 points on 610 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,417.75 points on 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Ichimoku cloud breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,839.50 points on 647 trades (35.6% won) and the short trades made -417.75 points on 571 trades (28.4% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 1,218 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,303 on the 5-minute chart, 610 on the 1-hour chart and 28 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy on NQ? A: The Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,209.00 points ($64,180 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,910.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 5,903.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,128.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 1,224 trades, won 33.3% of them and made 425.75 points ($21,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Ichimoku cloud breakout strategy took 1,218 trades, won 32.2% of them and made 1,421.75 points ($28,435 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Chandelier exit backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/chandelier-exit-22-3-atr. Library name: Chandelier exit (22, 3 ATR). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Chandelier exit 22 3 ATR, ATR trailing stop strategy, Chandelier stop strategy, buy when price closes above the Chandelier Exit short-side line (22, 3 ATR), short when price closes below the Chandelier Exit long-side line (22, 3 ATR). ### What it is The Chandelier exit (22, 3 ATR) is a trailing stop set 3 average true ranges from the highest high or lowest low of the last 22 bars. This strategy goes long when price closes above the short-side chandelier line, short on the mirror, and exits on the opposite flip. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chandelier exit strategy took 1,009 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.4% of them and finished -2,513.50 points (-$50,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 514 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 36.6% and made -2,093.25 points (-$41,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Chandelier exit strategy took 1,041 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.5% of them and finished -613.50 points (-$30,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Chandelier exit strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the Chandelier Exit short-side line (22, 3 ATR)? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Chandelier exit strategy took 514 long trades, won 36.6% of them and made -2,093.25 points (-$41,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,415.25 points on 1,119 trades on the 5-minute chart, 444.75 points on 134 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,135.00 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the Chandelier Exit long-side line (22, 3 ATR)? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Chandelier exit strategy took 521 short trades, won 35.5% of them and made -433.50 points (-$21,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 190.50 points on 1,075 trades on the 5-minute chart, 387.75 points on 165 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,176.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Chandelier exit strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chandelier exit strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,009 trades, won 35.4% of them and finished -2,513.50 points (-$50,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Chandelier exit (22, 3 ATR) on ES futures? A: The Chandelier exit strategy won 35.5% of its 1,041 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 32.9% of 2,160 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.5% of 297 trades on the 1-hour chart and 29.2% of 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Chandelier exit strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chandelier exit strategy made -6,555.75 points on 2,217 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,513.50 points on 1,009 trades on the 15-minute chart, -530.00 points on 296 trades on the 1-hour chart and 110.50 points on 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Chandelier exit signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,093.25 points on 514 trades (36.6% won) and the short trades made -420.25 points on 495 trades (34.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Chandelier exit strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Chandelier exit strategy took 1,009 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,217 on the 5-minute chart, 296 on the 1-hour chart and 24 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Chandelier exit strategy on NQ? A: The Chandelier exit strategy had a max drawdown of 4,966.50 points ($99,330 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 8,270.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,001.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,175.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Chandelier exit strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Chandelier exit strategy took 1,041 trades, won 35.5% of them and made -613.50 points (-$30,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Chandelier exit strategy took 1,009 trades, won 35.4% of them and made -2,513.50 points (-$50,270 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Aroon cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/aroon-25-cross. Library name: Aroon (25) cross. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Aroon 25 strategy, Aroon indicator crossover, Aroon Up Aroon Down, buy when Aroon Up crosses above Aroon Down, short when Aroon Up crosses below Aroon Down. ### What it is The Aroon indicator (25 periods) measures how recently the highest high and lowest low occurred, as Aroon Up and Aroon Down. This strategy goes long when Aroon Up crosses above Aroon Down, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Aroon cross strategy took 466 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.4% of them and finished 1,730.25 points ($34,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 238 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.7% and made 720.00 points ($14,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Aroon cross strategy took 509 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.8% of them and finished 320.00 points ($16,000 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Aroon cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time Aroon Up crosses above Aroon Down? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Aroon cross strategy took 238 long trades, won 51.7% of them and made 720.00 points ($14,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,003.75 points on 800 trades on the 5-minute chart, -215.00 points on 107 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,641.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time Aroon Up crosses below Aroon Down? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Aroon cross strategy took 261 short trades, won 44.1% of them and made 271.00 points ($13,550 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 216.00 points on 746 trades on the 5-minute chart, 81.25 points on 118 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,127.00 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Aroon cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Aroon cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 466 trades, won 46.4% of them and finished 1,730.25 points ($34,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Aroon (25) cross on ES futures? A: The Aroon cross strategy won 44.8% of its 509 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 41.2% of 1,504 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.6% of 237 trades on the 1-hour chart and 30.0% of 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Aroon cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Aroon cross strategy made 125.50 points on 1,592 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,730.25 points on 466 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,721.25 points on 226 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,595.00 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Aroon cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 720.00 points on 238 trades (51.7% won) and the short trades made 1,010.25 points on 228 trades (40.8% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Aroon cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Aroon cross strategy took 466 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,592 on the 5-minute chart, 226 on the 1-hour chart and 22 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Aroon cross strategy on NQ? A: The Aroon cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,670.75 points ($93,415 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,180.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 888.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,324.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Aroon cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Aroon cross strategy took 509 trades, won 44.8% of them and made 320.00 points ($16,000 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Aroon cross strategy took 466 trades, won 46.4% of them and made 1,730.25 points ($34,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Vortex indicator cross backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/vortex-14-cross. Library name: Vortex (14) cross. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Vortex 14 strategy, VI+ VI- crossover, Vortex crossover, buy when VI+ crosses above VI-, short when VI+ crosses below VI-. ### What it is The Vortex indicator (14 periods) compares upward movement (VI+) with downward movement (VI-). This strategy goes long when VI+ crosses above VI-, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 1,206 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.1% of them and finished -758.25 points (-$15,165 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 608 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 39.0% and made -461.50 points (-$9,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 1,190 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.3% of them and finished 12.25 points ($613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Vortex indicator cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time VI+ crosses above VI-? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 608 long trades, won 39.0% of them and made -461.50 points (-$9,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,746.50 points on 1,899 trades on the 5-minute chart, -377.25 points on 172 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,258.25 points on 30 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time VI+ crosses below VI-? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 592 short trades, won 39.0% of them and made 130.25 points ($6,513 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 137.00 points on 1,869 trades on the 5-minute chart, -94.25 points on 203 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,306.75 points on 26 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Vortex indicator cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Vortex indicator cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,206 trades, won 39.1% of them and finished -758.25 points (-$15,165 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Vortex (14) cross on ES futures? A: The Vortex indicator cross strategy won 39.3% of its 1,190 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.7% of 3,731 trades on the 5-minute chart, 45.5% of 378 trades on the 1-hour chart and 29.4% of 51 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Vortex indicator cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Vortex indicator cross strategy made 4,298.25 points on 3,781 trades on the 5-minute chart, -758.25 points on 1,206 trades on the 15-minute chart, -219.00 points on 357 trades on the 1-hour chart and -510.50 points on 60 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Vortex indicator cross signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -461.50 points on 608 trades (39.0% won) and the short trades made -296.75 points on 598 trades (39.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Vortex indicator cross strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Vortex indicator cross strategy took 1,206 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,781 on the 5-minute chart, 357 on the 1-hour chart and 60 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Vortex indicator cross strategy on NQ? A: The Vortex indicator cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,198.25 points ($83,965 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,257.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,319.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,510.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Vortex indicator cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 1,190 trades, won 39.3% of them and made 12.25 points ($613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Vortex indicator cross strategy took 1,206 trades, won 39.1% of them and made -758.25 points (-$15,165 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Heikin Ashi color flip backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/heikin-ashi-color-flip. Library name: Heikin Ashi color flip. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Heikin Ashi strategy, Heikin Ashi candle strategy, Heikin Ashi trend flip, buy when the first green Heikin Ashi candle follows a red one, short when the first red Heikin Ashi candle follows a green one. ### What it is Heikin Ashi candles are smoothed candles built from averaged open, high, low and close values. This strategy goes long after the first green Heikin Ashi candle following a red one, short on the mirror, and exits on the opposite flip. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 3,063 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.5% of them and finished -2,928.50 points (-$58,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 1,523 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 39.9% and made -138.75 points (-$2,775 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 3,026 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.1% of them and finished 65.50 points ($3,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the first green Heikin Ashi candle follows a red one? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 1,523 long trades, won 39.9% of them and made -138.75 points (-$2,775 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 594.75 points on 4,616 trades on the 5-minute chart, 213.00 points on 342 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,618.75 points on 60 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the first red Heikin Ashi candle follows a green one? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 1,524 short trades, won 35.7% of them and made 66.75 points ($3,338 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -48.50 points on 4,516 trades on the 5-minute chart, -158.75 points on 373 trades on the 1-hour chart and -702.50 points on 59 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy on the 15-minute chart took 3,063 trades, won 37.5% of them and finished -2,928.50 points (-$58,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Heikin Ashi color flip on ES futures? A: The Heikin Ashi color flip strategy won 37.1% of its 3,026 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 35.3% of 9,012 trades on the 5-minute chart, 41.1% of 742 trades on the 1-hour chart and 40.7% of 118 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy made -763.75 points on 9,232 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,928.50 points on 3,063 trades on the 15-minute chart, 703.00 points on 677 trades on the 1-hour chart and -5,789.50 points on 120 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Heikin Ashi color flip signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -138.75 points on 1,523 trades (39.9% won) and the short trades made -2,789.75 points on 1,540 trades (35.1% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 3,063 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 9,232 on the 5-minute chart, 677 on the 1-hour chart and 120 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy on NQ? A: The Heikin Ashi color flip strategy had a max drawdown of 4,594.75 points ($91,895 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,092.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,006.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 9,861.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 3,026 trades, won 37.1% of them and made 65.50 points ($3,275 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Heikin Ashi color flip strategy took 3,063 trades, won 37.5% of them and made -2,928.50 points (-$58,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Inside bar breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/inside-bar-breakout. Library name: Inside bar breakout. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: inside bar strategy, inside candle breakout, mother bar breakout, buy when price breaks above the mother bar's high after an inside bar, short when price breaks below the mother bar's low after an inside bar. ### What it is An inside bar is a bar whose range sits inside the range of the previous bar, called the mother bar. After an inside bar, this strategy goes long on a break of the mother bar's high and short on a break of its low, with the stop at the other side of the mother bar and a target of 2R. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.9% of them and finished 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 230 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.7% and made 2,777.00 points ($55,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the inside bar breakout strategy took 379 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.4% of them and finished 99.00 points ($4,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the inside bar breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the mother bar's high after an inside bar? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the inside bar breakout strategy took 230 long trades, won 51.7% of them and made 2,777.00 points ($55,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -4,996.75 points on 536 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,717.00 points on 64 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,063.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the mother bar's low after an inside bar? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the inside bar breakout strategy took 175 short trades, won 37.1% of them and made -74.50 points (-$3,725 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 425.75 points on 452 trades on the 5-minute chart, -39.75 points on 51 trades on the 1-hour chart and -520.00 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the inside bar breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 436 trades, won 45.9% of them and finished 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Inside bar breakout on ES futures? A: The inside bar breakout strategy won 41.4% of its 379 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.2% of 935 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.8% of 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and 26.7% of 15 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the inside bar breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy made -5,575.00 points on 1,018 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,121.00 points on 436 trades on the 15-minute chart, -343.75 points on 105 trades on the 1-hour chart and 8,796.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell inside bar breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,777.00 points on 230 trades (51.7% won) and the short trades made -656.00 points on 206 trades (39.3% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the inside bar breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,018 on the 5-minute chart, 105 on the 1-hour chart and 11 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the inside bar breakout strategy on NQ? A: The inside bar breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,099.25 points ($41,985 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,787.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,257.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,087.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the inside bar breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the inside bar breakout strategy took 379 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 99.00 points ($4,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades, won 45.9% of them and made 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## NR7 breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/nr7-breakout. Library name: NR7 breakout. Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: NR7 strategy, narrow range 7 breakout, narrowest range of 7 days, buy when price breaks above the high of the narrowest-range (NR7) day in the next session, short when price breaks below the low of the narrowest-range (NR7) day in the next session. ### What it is An NR7 day is the day with the narrowest daily range of the last 7 days. After an NR7 day, this strategy goes long on a break of that day's high next session and short on a break of its low, with the stop at the other side and an exit at the close. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the NR7 breakout strategy took 73 trades on the daily chart, won 53.4% of them and finished 1,241.50 points ($24,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 37 long trades on the daily chart won 43.2% and made -705.50 points (-$14,110 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the NR7 breakout strategy took 74 trades on the daily chart, won 50.0% of them and finished 61.00 points ($3,050 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the daily chart only; every trade is listed on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the NR7 breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the high of the narrowest-range (NR7) day in the next session? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ daily chart, the NR7 breakout strategy took 37 long trades, won 43.2% of them and made -705.50 points (-$14,110 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the low of the narrowest-range (NR7) day in the next session? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES daily chart, the NR7 breakout strategy took 32 short trades, won 56.3% of them and made 257.50 points ($12,875 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Q: Does the NR7 breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the NR7 breakout strategy on the daily chart took 73 trades, won 53.4% of them and finished 1,241.50 points ($24,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of NR7 breakout on ES futures? A: The NR7 breakout strategy won 50.0% of its 74 trades on the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell NR7 breakout signals on NQ? A: On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -705.50 points on 37 trades (43.2% won) and the short trades made 1,947.00 points on 36 trades (63.9% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the NR7 breakout strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The NR7 breakout strategy took 73 trades on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the NR7 breakout strategy on NQ? A: The NR7 breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 1,094.75 points ($21,895 on one NQ contract) on the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the NR7 breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the NR7 breakout strategy took 74 trades, won 50.0% of them and made 61.00 points ($3,050 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the NR7 breakout strategy took 73 trades, won 53.4% of them and made 1,241.50 points ($24,830 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. ## Williams Alligator backtest on NQ and ES futures URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/strategies/williams-alligator-13-8-5. Library name: Williams Alligator (13 / 8 / 5). Family: Trend and breakouts. Also called: Alligator indicator strategy, Alligator 13 8 5, Bill Williams Alligator, buy when the Alligator's lips are above its teeth, above its jaw, with price above all three, short when the Alligator's lips are below its teeth, below its jaw, with price below all three. ### What it is The Williams Alligator draws three smoothed averages (jaw 13, teeth 8, lips 5) that fan out in a trend. This strategy goes long when lips are above teeth above jaw with price above all three, short on the mirror, and exits when the lines cross back. ### What it did On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.5% of them and finished 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 428 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 53.0% and made 4,169.50 points ($83,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams Alligator strategy took 823 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.0% of them and finished 369.25 points ($18,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page. ### How it was tested CE Market Solutions tested the Williams Alligator strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab. Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years. ### Questions and answers Q: What happens if you buy NQ every time the Alligator's lips are above its teeth, above its jaw, with price above all three? A: From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Williams Alligator strategy took 428 long trades, won 53.0% of them and made 4,169.50 points ($83,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 861.75 points on 945 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,719.75 points on 237 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,800.25 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What happens if you short ES every time the Alligator's lips are below its teeth, below its jaw, with price below all three? A: From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Williams Alligator strategy took 373 short trades, won 44.5% of them and made -31.75 points (-$1,587 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 538.25 points on 843 trades on the 5-minute chart, -5.00 points on 151 trades on the 1-hour chart and -114.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Does the Williams Alligator strategy work on Nasdaq futures? A: On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy on the 15-minute chart took 810 trades, won 48.5% of them and finished 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. Q: What is the win rate of Williams Alligator (13 / 8 / 5) on ES futures? A: The Williams Alligator strategy won 48.0% of its 823 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 44.1% of 1,799 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.4% of 397 trades on the 1-hour chart and 47.6% of 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is the Williams Alligator strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ? A: On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy made 1,320.25 points on 1,796 trades on the 5-minute chart, 4,071.25 points on 810 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,682.50 points on 398 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,914.75 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: Is it better to only buy or only sell Williams Alligator signals on NQ? A: On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 4,169.50 points on 428 trades (53.0% won) and the short trades made -98.25 points on 382 trades (43.5% won), before commission and slippage. Q: How many trades does the Williams Alligator strategy take on NQ in two years? A: The Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,796 on the 5-minute chart, 398 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: What is the max drawdown of the Williams Alligator strategy on NQ? A: The Williams Alligator strategy had a max drawdown of 3,165.75 points ($63,315 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,300.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 5,873.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,533.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage. Q: How does the Williams Alligator strategy do on ES compared with NQ? A: On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams Alligator strategy took 823 trades, won 48.0% of them and made 369.25 points ($18,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades, won 48.5% of them and made 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. --- # Free bar-by-bar futures replay and paper trading tool for NQ, ES and GC URL: https://cemarketsolutions.com/replay CE Market Solutions offers a free bar-by-bar historical replay and paper-trading tool for NQ, ES and gold (GC) futures: a free alternative to FX Replay and other paid replay tools. You pick a market and a start date, step forward one 1-minute bar at a time with no later bars loaded, draw on the chart, journal each decision, and place paper orders. It is free with an account and a verified email. ## What it does - Bar-by-bar, forward-only replay. You move forward by 1 to 60 one-minute bars at a time, by candles of the timeframe on screen, to the next 09:30 ET or to the next session, or you press play at a speed you choose. The server never sends a bar later than the current one, and a replay cannot be moved backward. - A start-date picker. You choose the market and any start date. Every replay opens with at least 3 months of history behind the start candle (the earliest start is the first bar of the market’s data plus 3 months), and nothing after the start candle is loaded until you step to it. - Markets: NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100), ES (E-mini S&P 500) and GC (COMEX gold), as 1-minute data. Prices are raw and not back-adjusted, the front-month contract is shown, and the first bar of a new contract is marked on a roll. NQ and ES can be shown side by side on a split chart for 2016 to 2025. - Six chart timeframes: 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour and daily, or your own (3-minute, 2-hour and so on), built from the 1-minute bars you have been sent. - Four drawing tools: a horizontal ray, a trend line, a box with levels and a Fibonacci retracement, with adjustable colours, line styles and levels. - A journal. Each entry has a decision (long, short, no trade or wait), tags and a note. The time and the last close are stamped by the server, an entry stops being editable once the replay moves on, and a later thought goes in a follow-up entry. - A Trade tab for paper trading with market, limit and stop orders. Right-click the chart to place an order at that price, drag an order line to move it, and drag a stop or a target out of the position. Contracts follow the market: NQ or MNQ on an NQ run, ES or MES on an ES run, GC or MGC on gold. - An account that is set once per run: starting balance, contract and commission per side. It cannot be changed after it is created. The account strip shows equity, open profit and loss, open orders and the reward-to-risk of the stop and target on the chart. - Fills are evaluated on 1-minute bars only. A gap through an order fills at the open. If a stop and a target are touched in the same bar, the stop fills. A position is closed at a contract roll and at the end of the data. - A Save tab. It saves the chart with your drawings and a note, or the chart as it was at each journal entry you tick, and you can import those charts into an order in the strategy builder, up to 5 charts per order. ## Who can use it and what it costs - It is free. The Trade Lab has no price. - You need an account with a verified email. Signed-out visitors are sent to sign in first. - Your runs, drawings, journal and paper trades are private to your account. ## Limits - It replays history. There is no live data and no real order is ever placed. - Paper fills are modelled on 1-minute bars, so they approximate live fills. - The start-date picker shows the exact date range of each market’s data. - Each account can read 40 distinct 1-minute sessions and start 5 new runs per UTC day. ## Guides - [How do I start a free futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-start-a-free-futures-replay): Open the Trade Lab, pick NQ, ES or GC and a start date, and press Start replay: a free account with a verified email is all it takes. - [How do I replay futures bar by bar?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-replay-futures-bar-by-bar): Press Step to reveal one candle, set a bigger step, press Play for a steady pace, or jump to the next 09:30 or session start. - [How do I place a buy (long) paper trade in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-a-buy-paper-trade-in-a-futures-replay): Open the Trade tab, create the paper account once, then press Buy: a market order fills at the last price and the open profit updates as you step. - [How do I place a sell (short) paper trade in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-a-sell-short-paper-trade-in-a-futures-replay): On the Trade tab press Sell to open a short: it gains when price falls. This example runs on ES with the MES micro contract at $5 a point. - [How do I place limit and stop orders in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-place-limit-and-stop-orders-in-a-futures-replay): Right-click the chart at the price you want, pick the order from the menu, and drag the order line to move it before it fills. - [How do I set a stop loss and take profit in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-set-a-stop-loss-and-take-profit-in-a-futures-replay): Drag the SL or TP handle out of the position line to a price, and the Lab shows what that stop or target pays before you let go. - [How do I set up the paper account in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-set-up-the-paper-account-in-a-futures-replay): The Trade tab asks for a starting balance, a contract and a commission once per run; they lock when you press Create account. - [How do I use the drawing tools in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-use-drawing-tools-in-a-futures-replay): Pick the horizontal ray, trend line, box with levels or Fibonacci tool, click the chart, then style the drawing from the bar that appears. - [How do I journal my trades in a futures replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-journal-your-trades-in-a-futures-replay): Pick a decision, add tags and a note, and press Enter journal entry: the server stamps the time and last price, and the entry locks once you step. - [How do I read my futures replay stats?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-read-your-futures-replay-stats): The Your backtesting section of the Lab page turns your closed paper trades into a trade count, win rate, net, average R, profit factor and drawdown. - [How do I turn a futures replay into a full backtest?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-turn-a-futures-replay-into-a-full-backtest): Save the chart from the Save tab, open the builder from the replay, and import the saved charts into an order; up to five charts per order. - [How do I practise the New York open on NQ with bar replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-the-new-york-open-on-nq-with-bar-replay): Jump a replay to 09:30 ET, mark the overnight range, step the first candles one at a time and journal the decision before each step. - [How do I practise an opening-range strategy bar by bar?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-an-opening-range-strategy-bar-by-bar): Step to the end of the first 15 minutes, box the range, step candle by candle until one closes outside it, journal the call and paper trade it. - [How do I practise liquidity sweeps and fair value gaps on a replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-liquidity-sweeps-and-fair-value-gaps-on-a-replay): Mark a prior high with a ray, step until a candle takes it and closes back, box the three-candle gap that follows and journal each with a tag. - [How do I practise for a prop-firm evaluation with replay?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-practise-for-a-prop-firm-evaluation-with-replay): Set a paper account of the evaluation’s size in micros, write your risk rules first, trade a session by them and journal whether you kept them. - [How do I practise the London and New York sessions on gold futures (GC)?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/gold-futures-gc-replay-london-and-new-york-sessions): Start a GC replay, jump from the Asia start to London 03:00 and New York 09:30 ET, mark each session’s range and pick the GC or MGC contract. - [How do I manually backtest 100 trades on NQ without coding?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/how-to-manually-backtest-100-trades-on-nq-without-coding): Write one rule, take each trade as a paper trade with a stop and target, journal it with a tag, jump to the next session and read the totals. - [What is bar replay, and why does forward-only replay matter?](https://cemarketsolutions.com/research/what-is-bar-replay-and-why-forward-only-matters): Bar replay shows past price one candle at a time with later candles hidden; forward-only replay keeps look-ahead out of what you practise. ## Questions and answers ### Is there a free alternative to FX Replay? Yes. CE Market Solutions’ Trade Lab is a free bar-by-bar historical replay and paper-trading tool for NQ, ES and GC futures. It is a free alternative to FX Replay and other paid replay tools, and it needs an account with a verified email. ### Can I replay NQ futures bar by bar for free? Yes. Choose NQ and a start date in the Trade Lab and step forward one 1-minute bar at a time, or by the candles of the timeframe on screen. Each replay opens with at least 3 months of history, and no bar after the current one is loaded. ### Can I paper trade on historical futures data? Yes. The Trade tab takes market, limit and stop orders on the replayed chart, in the market’s own contract (NQ or MNQ, ES or MES, GC or MGC), with a starting balance and commission you set once per run. Orders fill on 1-minute bars as the replay moves forward. ### How do I backtest a strategy manually without paying for a replay tool? Open the Trade Lab, pick a market and start date, step forward one bar at a time, mark your entry, stop and target with the drawing tools or place paper orders, and write each decision in the journal. The Lab page then shows your closed-trade count, win rate and drawdown. To have a strategy tested for you, every version is $19. Want your own strategy tested the same way? Every version is $19 at cemarketsolutions.com.