CE 50% Model · NQ opening range
The 8:30 range, split at 50%.
Four rules, every trade since 2016. Change any of them and we run your version.
See it tested with one change · $19
Simulated, NQ 2016–2026 · quarter Kelly, compounded · in-sample
+13,212%
- trades
- 2,625
- per trade, net
- +0.141R
- max drawdown
- 34.2R
The rules
- 1
The range
From 8:30 to 9:30 ET. The highest high is the range high, the lowest low is the range low, and halfway between the two is the 50% line.
- 2
The side
The first 3-minute candle after the open runs 9:30 to 9:33. If it closes above the 50% line the trade is long; if it closes below, short.
- 3
The entry
The open of the next 1-minute candle, 9:33.
- 4
The stop, and the trail
Your stop starts at the other side of the range. Every time the 15-minute chart prints a confirmed swing in your favour — a candle with a lower low than both neighbours for a long, a higher high for a short — the stop steps behind it, once the next 15-minute candle has closed. It only moves your way. If it’s never hit, the trade closes at 4:00 pm ET.
R is the distance from the entry to the initial stop, so +1R is a gain equal to that distance and −1R is the initial stop being hit. If the stop is touched on the entry bar itself, the trade counts as stopped out.
Five trades, charted
Candles are 1-minute, from 8:30 to fifteen minutes after the exit (dimmed once the trade is over). The dashed line is the stop: it starts at the other side of the range and steps with the trail. Drag to move, pinch to zoom, double-click to reset.
2020-09-23 · short · +9.89R net
Chart unavailable. The date, side and net result are in the line above.
- Range high / low (shaded: 8:30–9:30)
- Solid line: 50%
- White candle: the 3-minute signal candle
- Stop, stepping with the trail
- R is net of the $2.20 round-trip commission
The largest points gain among trades whose stop is within 25% of the 36-pt median.
2018-09-18 · long · +1.33R net
Chart unavailable. The date, side and net result are in the line above.
- Range high / low (shaded: 8:30–9:30)
- Solid line: 50%
- White candle: the 3-minute signal candle
- Stop, stepping with the trail
- R is net of the $2.20 round-trip commission
The trail steps up behind two swing lows and takes the trade out above the entry.
2023-03-15 · long · −0.19R net
Chart unavailable. The date, side and net result are in the line above.
- Range high / low (shaded: 8:30–9:30)
- Solid line: 50%
- White candle: the 3-minute signal candle
- Stop, stepping with the trail
- R is net of the $2.20 round-trip commission
The trail steps up behind two swing lows, but the exit still lands below the entry price.
2018-12-24 · long · −1.00R net
Chart unavailable. The date, side and net result are in the line above.
- Range high / low (shaded: 8:30–9:30)
- Solid line: 50%
- White candle: the 3-minute signal candle
- Stop, stepping with the trail
- R is net of the $2.20 round-trip commission
The stop never moves: a full −1R at the initial stop (−1.00R before commission).
2025-12-22 · long · −1.00R net
Chart unavailable. The date, side and net result are in the line above.
- Range high / low (shaded: 8:30–9:30)
- Solid line: 50%
- White candle: the 3-minute signal candle
- Stop, stepping with the trail
- R is net of the $2.20 round-trip commission
Stopped on its own entry bar, the minute it was filled. Counted as a loss at the initial stop.
Results
NQ 2016–2026 backtest; the rules were developed on this data. Net of the $2.20 round-trip NQ commission; slippage is not modelled.
Trades
2,625
NQ, 2016-06-01 to 2026-08-27
Win rate
34.4%
Expectancy
+0.141R
95% CI [+0.068, +0.214], net of the $2.20 round-trip NQ commission
Avg win / avg loss
+90 / −39
points per contract, net of the same commission
Max drawdown
34.2R
net
Longest losing streak
13
Same-bar fill-and-stop
49 (1.9%)
stopped on the entry bar, all −1.00R, included in every figure here
Typical stop now
92 pts
median in 2026; 36 pts over the full sample
By year, gross of commission
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Expectancy (R) | 95% CI | Sum R | Avg pts | Median stop (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 (Jun–) | 150 | 37% | +0.272 | [−0.051, +0.634] | +40.8 | +3.2 | 8 |
| 2017 | 255 | 34% | +0.223 | [−0.017, +0.484] | +56.8 | +1.8 | 8 |
| 2018 | 256 | 32% | +0.311 | [+0.016, +0.630] | +79.7 | +4.4 | 18 |
| 2019 | 254 | 34% | +0.097 | [−0.110, +0.335] | +24.6 | +3.4 | 18 |
| 2020 | 254 | 32% | +0.040 | [−0.190, +0.295] | +10.1 | +1.9 | 37 |
| 2021 | 258 | 37% | +0.155 | [−0.045, +0.352] | +40.0 | +8.8 | 40 |
| 2022 | 258 | 31% | +0.076 | [−0.147, +0.338] | +19.5 | −1.6 | 62 |
| 2023 | 257 | 35% | +0.067 | [−0.117, +0.265] | +17.2 | +4.6 | 46 |
| 2024 | 258 | 36% | +0.163 | [−0.040, +0.377] | +42.1 | +17.9 | 55 |
| 2025 | 256 | 37% | +0.158 | [−0.044, +0.363] | +40.4 | +10.2 | 64 |
| 2026 (–Aug 27) | 169 | 33% | +0.084 | [−0.190, +0.400] | +14.1 | +5.8 | 92 |
Stops are the range edge, so their size follows each day’s range: the median stop was 8 points in 2016 and 92 points in 2026. R and points can disagree within a year for that reason.
Equity and drawdown
All 2,625 trades in exit order, one point per exit day, net of commission. Drawdown is the same path measured from each new peak. The switch changes the unit: percent, the same trades with each one sized at a fixed share of the account; or R, one unit of R per trade.
+370.9R cumulative net R34.2R max drawdown
13,312% final equity (+13,212%)45.98% max drawdown
- Cumulative net R
- Equity, % of start
- Drawdown
Chart unavailable. The same figures — 13,312% final equity (+13,212%) and 45.98% max drawdown — are in the header above.
All 2,625 trades
Every trade in the sample, by year. Select a row to open its chart; select it again to close it.
2016150 trades
2017255 trades
2018256 trades
2019254 trades
2020254 trades
2021258 trades
2022258 trades
2023257 trades
2024258 trades
2025256 trades
2026169 trades
Before you read anything into this
The rule, the 3-minute candle and the 15-minute trail were all chosen on this same NQ data, so every figure here is in-sample. Nothing on this page was tested on data the rules had not already seen.
Figures are net of commission only: $2.20 round trip per NQ contract. Slippage is not modelled, and a stop is filled at its price.
Want your own strategy backtested this way?