Strategy library · Comparison
Bollinger Bands vs Keltner Channels on NQ and ES futures: 2-year backtest side by side
Bollinger Bands vs Keltner Channels on NQ and ES futures, side by side. The tables below hold Bollinger breakout (20, 2), Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR), Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) and Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) at the timeframes they have in common, one row per strategy, ordered by market and then timeframe. No row is ordered by a result, and nothing on this page names one strategy over another: the figures are the figures.
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Breakouts: Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel
Breakouts: Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel, NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, one contract, before commission and slippage.
| Market | Timeframe | Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net pts | Net $ (1 contract) | Max DD pts | Long trades | Long net pts | Short trades | Short net pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 5 minute | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 1,533 | 38.9% | 3,435.25 | $68,705 | 2,800.25 | 753 | 1,107.00 | 780 | 2,328.25 |
| NQ | 5 minute | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 869 | 41.7% | 6,637.00 | $132,740 | 2,176.00 | 427 | 2,898.25 | 442 | 3,738.75 |
| NQ | 15 minute | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 648 | 42.4% | 952.75 | $19,055 | 3,777.25 | 323 | 1,192.50 | 325 | −239.75 |
| NQ | 15 minute | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 433 | 42.5% | 1,674.50 | $33,490 | 2,211.50 | 210 | 1,788.50 | 223 | −114.00 |
| NQ | 1 hour | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 379 | 51.5% | 1,998.00 | $39,960 | 2,691.75 | 202 | 807.50 | 177 | 1,190.50 |
| NQ | 1 hour | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 245 | 52.2% | 1,195.00 | $23,900 | 1,761.75 | 141 | 573.75 | 104 | 621.25 |
| NQ | Daily | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 21 | 28.6% | −2,250.75 | −$45,015 | 4,243.75 | 12 | 710.50 | 9 | −2,961.25 |
| NQ | Daily | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 13 | 46.2% | −1,693.75 | −$33,875 | 3,448.25 | 8 | 2,426.50 | 5 | −4,120.25 |
| ES | 5 minute | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 1,515 | 38.2% | 381.25 | $19,063 | 550.00 | 731 | 401.50 | 784 | −20.25 |
| ES | 5 minute | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 914 | 39.3% | 950.75 | $47,538 | 441.25 | 453 | 800.25 | 461 | 150.50 |
| ES | 15 minute | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 670 | 43.3% | 122.25 | $6,113 | 577.25 | 329 | 295.50 | 341 | −173.25 |
| ES | 15 minute | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 446 | 46.0% | 577.00 | $28,850 | 520.50 | 221 | 79.50 | 225 | 497.50 |
| ES | 1 hour | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 420 | 46.7% | −370.75 | −$18,537 | 694.75 | 228 | −444.75 | 192 | 74.00 |
| ES | 1 hour | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 244 | 51.6% | −112.25 | −$5,612 | 551.75 | 136 | −190.00 | 108 | 77.75 |
| ES | Daily | Bollinger breakout (20, 2) | 18 | 33.3% | −1,009.25 | −$50,462 | 1,009.25 | 8 | 72.75 | 10 | −1,082.00 |
| ES | Daily | Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 12 | 33.3% | −483.00 | −$24,150 | 744.00 | 7 | 43.75 | 5 | −526.75 |
Reversion: Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel
Reversion: Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel, NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, one contract, before commission and slippage.
| Market | Timeframe | Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net pts | Net $ (1 contract) | Max DD pts | Long trades | Long net pts | Short trades | Short net pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 5 minute | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 1,627 | 63.4% | −2,764.50 | −$55,290 | 4,003.50 | 826 | −2,133.75 | 801 | −630.75 |
| NQ | 5 minute | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 928 | 61.3% | −4,823.00 | −$96,460 | 5,777.75 | 466 | −2,839.50 | 462 | −1,983.50 |
| NQ | 15 minute | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 701 | 58.4% | −246.75 | −$4,935 | 3,457.25 | 344 | 769.50 | 357 | −1,016.25 |
| NQ | 15 minute | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 445 | 60.9% | −1,993.25 | −$39,865 | 3,793.25 | 227 | 70.00 | 218 | −2,063.25 |
| NQ | 1 hour | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 358 | 49.7% | −937.50 | −$18,750 | 2,561.25 | 166 | −595.25 | 192 | −342.25 |
| NQ | 1 hour | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 248 | 50.0% | −2.50 | −$50 | 1,901.25 | 105 | 152.75 | 143 | −155.25 |
| NQ | Daily | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 23 | 60.9% | −3,136.50 | −$62,730 | 4,543.50 | 11 | −464.00 | 12 | −2,672.50 |
| NQ | Daily | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 13 | 53.9% | −972.50 | −$19,450 | 3,669.25 | 5 | 3,572.50 | 8 | −4,545.00 |
| ES | 5 minute | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 1,635 | 66.3% | 101.00 | $5,050 | 509.00 | 838 | 36.25 | 797 | 64.75 |
| ES | 5 minute | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 981 | 62.2% | −708.25 | −$35,412 | 960.75 | 493 | −88.50 | 488 | −619.75 |
| ES | 15 minute | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 721 | 57.8% | −607.50 | −$30,375 | 1,104.75 | 355 | −267.75 | 366 | −339.75 |
| ES | 15 minute | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 470 | 55.7% | −361.75 | −$18,087 | 995.25 | 234 | −284.75 | 236 | −77.00 |
| ES | 1 hour | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 356 | 56.2% | 191.50 | $9,575 | 507.75 | 165 | 11.00 | 191 | 180.50 |
| ES | 1 hour | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 246 | 48.4% | −55.50 | −$2,775 | 415.50 | 108 | −110.75 | 138 | 55.25 |
| ES | Daily | Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) | 19 | 63.2% | −185.00 | −$9,250 | 751.75 | 11 | −4.50 | 8 | −180.50 |
| ES | Daily | Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) | 12 | 66.7% | 132.75 | $6,638 | 481.50 | 5 | 331.00 | 7 | −198.25 |
The figures in words
Bollinger breakout (20, 2): buys when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, sells short when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band. Exit: Close back through the middle band.
Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR): buys when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), sells short when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR). Exit: Close back through the middle line.
Bollinger re-entry (20, 2): buys when price closes back inside the lower Bollinger Band, sells short when price closes back inside the upper Bollinger Band. Exit: Touch of the middle band.
Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR): buys when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), sells short when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR). Exit: Touch of the middle line.
On the NQ 5-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 1,533 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 3,435.25 points ($68,705 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 5-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 869 trades, won 41.7% of them and made 6,637.00 points ($132,740 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and made 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and made 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 379 trades, won 51.5% of them and made 1,998.00 points ($39,960 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 245 trades, won 52.2% of them and made 1,195.00 points ($23,900 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 21 trades, won 28.6% of them and made -2,250.75 points (-$45,015 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 13 trades, won 46.2% of them and made -1,693.75 points (-$33,875 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 5-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 1,627 trades, won 63.4% of them and made -2,764.50 points (-$55,290 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 5-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 928 trades, won 61.3% of them and made -4,823.00 points (-$96,460 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 701 trades, won 58.4% of them and made -246.75 points (-$4,935 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 358 trades, won 49.7% of them and made -937.50 points (-$18,750 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 248 trades, won 50.0% of them and made -2.50 points (-$50 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 23 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -3,136.50 points (-$62,730 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 13 trades, won 53.9% of them and made -972.50 points (-$19,450 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
On the ES 5-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 1,515 trades, won 38.2% of them and made 381.25 points ($19,063 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 5-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 914 trades, won 39.3% of them and made 950.75 points ($47,538 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 670 trades, won 43.3% of them and made 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 446 trades, won 46.0% of them and made 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 420 trades, won 46.7% of them and made -370.75 points (-$18,537 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 244 trades, won 51.6% of them and made -112.25 points (-$5,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 18 trades, won 33.3% of them and made -1,009.25 points (-$50,462 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 12 trades, won 33.3% of them and made -483.00 points (-$24,150 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 5-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 1,635 trades, won 66.3% of them and made 101.00 points ($5,050 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 5-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 981 trades, won 62.2% of them and made -708.25 points (-$35,412 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 721 trades, won 57.8% of them and made -607.50 points (-$30,375 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 470 trades, won 55.7% of them and made -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 356 trades, won 56.2% of them and made 191.50 points ($9,575 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 246 trades, won 48.4% of them and made -55.50 points (-$2,775 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 19 trades, won 63.2% of them and made -185.00 points (-$9,250 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 12 trades, won 66.7% of them and made 132.75 points ($6,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
How to read the columns: Trades is the number of closed trades; Win % is the share of them that finished above zero points; Net pts is the sum of every trade's points; Net $ is net points times the contract's dollars per point, on one contract; Max DD pts is the largest fall of the running total of points from a peak. The longs-only and shorts-only columns are sums over that side's own trades, and the two sides add up to the strategy's combined result.
CE Market Solutions tested every strategy on the last 2 years of NQ and ES futures (NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27), before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings. Nothing is tuned.
Questions and answers
How do Bollinger breakout (20, 2) and Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) compare on Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ)?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and made 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and made 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on NQ are in the table above.
How do Bollinger breakout (20, 2) and Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) compare on S&P 500 futures (ES)?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger breakout (20, 2) took 670 trades, won 43.3% of them and made 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 446 trades, won 46.0% of them and made 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on ES are in the table above.
How do Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) and Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) compare on Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ)?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 701 trades, won 58.4% of them and made -246.75 points (-$4,935 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on NQ are in the table above.
How do Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) and Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) compare on S&P 500 futures (ES)?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Bollinger re-entry (20, 2) took 721 trades, won 57.8% of them and made -607.50 points (-$30,375 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) took 470 trades, won 55.7% of them and made -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on ES are in the table above.
More from the library
- Bollinger breakout (20, 2): every timeframe and every trade
- Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR): every timeframe and every trade
- Bollinger re-entry (20, 2): every timeframe and every trade
- Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR): every timeframe and every trade
- Every question the library answers
- Strategy library: all 100 strategies
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
Want your own rules tested the same way?