Strategy library · Comparison
Golden cross vs the EMA 20/50 cross on NQ and ES futures: 2-year backtest side by side
Golden cross vs the EMA 20/50 cross on NQ and ES futures, side by side. The table below holds Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) and EMA 20 / 50 cross at the timeframes they have in common, one row per strategy, ordered by market and then timeframe. No row is ordered by a result, and nothing on this page names one strategy over another: the figures are the figures.
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
SMA 50/200 cross and EMA 20/50 cross
SMA 50/200 cross and EMA 20/50 cross, NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, one contract, before commission and slippage.
| Market | Timeframe | Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net pts | Net $ (1 contract) | Max DD pts | Long trades | Long net pts | Short trades | Short net pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 1 hour | Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) | 20 | 40.0% | 93.25 | $1,865 | 675.75 | 13 | −309.75 | 7 | 403.00 |
| NQ | 1 hour | EMA 20 / 50 cross | 88 | 44.3% | −729.75 | −$14,595 | 1,617.00 | 48 | −579.75 | 40 | −150.00 |
| NQ | Daily | Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) | 4 | 50.0% | −5,364.25 | −$107,285 | 8,533.50 | 2 | 3,701.50 | 2 | −9,065.75 |
| NQ | Daily | EMA 20 / 50 cross | 8 | 37.5% | 694.50 | $13,890 | 3,182.00 | 4 | 4,674.25 | 4 | −3,979.75 |
| ES | 1 hour | Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) | 26 | 42.3% | −2.50 | −$125 | 60.50 | 10 | −23.75 | 16 | 21.25 |
| ES | 1 hour | EMA 20 / 50 cross | 93 | 44.1% | 125.75 | $6,288 | 267.75 | 48 | 45.00 | 45 | 80.75 |
| ES | Daily | Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) | 2 | 50.0% | 35.50 | $1,775 | 1,200.00 | 1 | 1,235.50 | 1 | −1,200.00 |
| ES | Daily | EMA 20 / 50 cross | 8 | 37.5% | 699.75 | $34,988 | 408.00 | 4 | 1,113.25 | 4 | −413.50 |
The figures in words
Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200): buys when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross), sells short when the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA (a death cross). Exit: Opposite cross.
EMA 20 / 50 cross: buys when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, sells short when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA. Exit: Opposite cross.
On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 88 trades, won 44.3% of them and made -729.75 points (-$14,595 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 4 trades, won 50.0% of them and made -5,364.25 points (-$107,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ daily chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 8 trades, won 37.5% of them and made 694.50 points ($13,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and made -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 93 trades, won 44.1% of them and made 125.75 points ($6,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 2 trades, won 50.0% of them and made 35.50 points ($1,775 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES daily chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 8 trades, won 37.5% of them and made 699.75 points ($34,988 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
How to read the columns: Trades is the number of closed trades; Win % is the share of them that finished above zero points; Net pts is the sum of every trade's points; Net $ is net points times the contract's dollars per point, on one contract; Max DD pts is the largest fall of the running total of points from a peak. The longs-only and shorts-only columns are sums over that side's own trades, and the two sides add up to the strategy's combined result.
CE Market Solutions tested every strategy on the last 2 years of NQ and ES futures (NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27), before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings. Nothing is tuned.
Questions and answers
How do Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) and EMA 20 / 50 cross compare on Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ)?
On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 88 trades, won 44.3% of them and made -729.75 points (-$14,595 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on NQ are in the table above.
How do Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) and EMA 20 / 50 cross compare on S&P 500 futures (ES)?
On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and made -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, EMA 20 / 50 cross took 93 trades, won 44.1% of them and made 125.75 points ($6,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The other timeframes they share on ES are in the table above.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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