Strategy library · Mean reversion and bands
Bollinger Bands fade backtest on NQ and ES futures
Bollinger lower band buy (20, 2)
Also called: Bollinger Bands mean reversion, Bollinger lower band buy, Bollinger Bands 20 2 strategy, buy the lower Bollinger Band, buy when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2), short when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2)
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2)?
What it is
Bollinger Bands place a 20-period simple moving average with bands two standard deviations above and below it. This strategy goes long on a close below the lower band and short on a close above the upper band, and exits on a touch of the middle band (the 20-period average).
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 62.6% of them and finished -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 347 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 66.0% and made -691.00 points (-$13,820 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 729 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 61.7% of them and finished -293.50 points (-$14,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long on a close below the lower band; short on a close above the upper band. Exit: Touch of the middle band (SMA 20).
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1662 | 65.4% | −1.96 | 0.933 | −3,253.50 | −$65,070 | 4,679.25 | 1665 | 66.1% | 0.01 | 1.001 | 12.00 | $600 | 549.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 845 | 67.8% | — | — | −2,616.25 | −$52,325 | 4,503.50 | 857 | 68.8% | — | — | 184.50 | $9,225 | 452.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 817 | 62.9% | — | — | −637.25 | −$12,745 | 1,803.25 | 808 | 63.2% | — | — | −172.50 | −$8,625 | 384.00 |
| 15 minute | 697 | 62.6% | −1.42 | 0.971 | −988.00 | −$19,760 | 3,987.75 | 729 | 61.7% | −0.40 | 0.957 | −293.50 | −$14,675 | 864.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 347 | 66.0% | — | — | −691.00 | −$13,820 | 3,650.00 | 362 | 62.7% | — | — | −95.25 | −$4,762 | 541.00 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 350 | 59.1% | — | — | −297.00 | −$5,940 | 2,282.00 | 367 | 60.8% | — | — | −198.25 | −$9,912 | 620.00 |
| 1 hour | 394 | 52.3% | −1.70 | 0.969 | −671.25 | −$13,425 | 2,298.00 | 436 | 55.3% | 0.59 | 1.056 | 255.50 | $12,775 | 438.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 186 | 59.1% | — | — | −768.75 | −$15,375 | 3,080.50 | 200 | 59.5% | — | — | −47.00 | −$2,350 | 528.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 208 | 46.2% | — | — | 97.50 | $1,950 | 1,174.50 | 236 | 51.7% | — | — | 302.50 | $15,125 | 280.50 |
| Daily | 23 | 73.9% | −20.04 | 0.935 | −461.00 | −$9,220 | 3,843.25 | 19 | 73.7% | 31.51 | 1.544 | 598.75 | $29,938 | 584.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 11 | 90.9% | — | — | 2,873.50 | $57,470 | 1,059.75 | 11 | 81.8% | — | — | 871.25 | $43,563 | 248.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 12 | 58.3% | — | — | −3,334.50 | −$66,690 | 4,556.75 | 8 | 62.5% | — | — | −272.50 | −$13,625 | 639.25 |
ES Daily: small sample (19 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 845 | −2,616.25 |
| Short | 817 | −637.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 55 | −331.25 |
| 2024-11 | 61 | −183.00 |
| 2024-12 | 81 | −253.50 |
| 2025-01 | 67 | 501.50 |
| 2025-02 | 70 | −1,022.50 |
| 2025-03 | 68 | 291.75 |
| 2025-04 | 72 | 518.75 |
| 2025-05 | 72 | −472.50 |
| 2025-06 | 71 | 839.00 |
| 2025-07 | 79 | 424.25 |
| 2025-08 | 76 | 242.75 |
| 2025-09 | 71 | 136.00 |
| 2025-10 | 69 | −989.75 |
| 2025-11 | 69 | −1,158.00 |
| 2025-12 | 56 | 27.50 |
| 2026-01 | 72 | −793.75 |
| 2026-02 | 67 | −303.75 |
| 2026-03 | 75 | 288.00 |
| 2026-04 | 71 | −8.50 |
| 2026-05 | 65 | 57.00 |
| 2026-06 | 71 | 156.00 |
| 2026-07 | 65 | −1,020.25 |
| 2026-08 | 62 | −164.00 |
| 2026-09 | 61 | −166.25 |
| 2026-10 | 16 | 131.00 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute1662 trades
Pick any of the 1662 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1662), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | short | 12:30 | 28908.00 | 13:54 | 29011.25 | mid band touch | −103.25 |
| 2026-05-19 | long | 10:10 | 28792.50 | 11:01 | 28826.50 | mid band touch | 34.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | short | 09:35 | 28957.25 | 09:46 | 28896.50 | mid band touch | 60.75 |
| 2026-05-18 | short | 15:45 | 29053.50 | 15:59 | 29098.75 | end of day 15:59 | −45.25 |
| 2026-05-18 | long | 14:20 | 28866.75 | 15:01 | 28925.50 | mid band touch | 58.75 |
| 2026-05-18 | long | 12:30 | 28877.75 | 12:52 | 28985.50 | mid band touch | 107.75 |
| 2026-05-18 | long | 10:35 | 29024.50 | 12:11 | 29025.25 | mid band touch | 0.75 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 13:25 | 29402.00 | 14:19 | 29392.75 | mid band touch | 9.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | long | 11:55 | 29243.25 | 12:02 | 29306.50 | mid band touch | 63.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 10:15 | 29300.75 | 10:50 | 29252.25 | mid band touch | 48.50 |
| 2026-05-14 | long | 13:10 | 29687.50 | 13:45 | 29705.75 | mid band touch | 18.25 |
| 2026-05-14 | short | 09:45 | 29625.50 | 09:59 | 29535.00 | mid band touch | 90.50 |
| 2026-05-13 | short | 14:15 | 29522.00 | 14:54 | 29498.75 | mid band touch | 23.25 |
| 2026-05-13 | short | 12:25 | 29430.75 | 13:59 | 29456.25 | mid band touch | −25.50 |
| 2026-05-13 | long | 09:50 | 29135.75 | 10:23 | 29226.25 | mid band touch | 90.50 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | 15:15 | 29040.25 | 15:59 | 29174.25 | end of day 15:59 | −134.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | long | 10:30 | 29085.75 | 13:15 | 28842.25 | mid band touch | −243.50 |
| 2026-05-12 | long | 10:00 | 29129.00 | 10:16 | 29203.50 | mid band touch | 74.50 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | 09:45 | 29285.25 | 09:50 | 29202.00 | mid band touch | 83.25 |
| 2026-05-11 | long | 15:00 | 29388.75 | 15:51 | 29421.75 | mid band touch | 33.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | short | 09:35 | 29426.00 | 09:56 | 29317.25 | mid band touch | 108.75 |
| 2026-05-08 | long | 15:00 | 29240.50 | 15:06 | 29278.25 | mid band touch | 37.75 |
| 2026-05-08 | short | 13:05 | 29286.25 | 13:51 | 29260.25 | mid band touch | 26.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | short | 09:35 | 28963.50 | 12:43 | 29196.25 | mid band touch | −232.75 |
| 2026-05-07 | long | 12:00 | 28785.50 | 13:59 | 28679.50 | mid band touch | −106.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | short | 09:55 | 28787.50 | 11:21 | 28851.00 | mid band touch | −63.50 |
| 2026-05-07 | short | 09:40 | 28773.25 | 09:44 | 28746.00 | mid band touch | 27.25 |
| 2026-05-06 | short | 14:40 | 28656.75 | 15:59 | 28710.25 | end of day 15:59 | −53.50 |
| 2026-05-06 | long | 12:55 | 28527.50 | 13:08 | 28565.00 | mid band touch | 37.50 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 13:55 | 28161.75 | 14:53 | 28159.00 | mid band touch | 2.75 |
| 2026-05-05 | long | 12:40 | 28098.50 | 12:47 | 28127.50 | mid band touch | 29.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 09:35 | 28025.50 | 12:27 | 28127.25 | mid band touch | −101.75 |
| 2026-05-04 | long | 14:45 | 27728.25 | 15:06 | 27770.75 | mid band touch | 42.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | short | 13:20 | 27788.50 | 14:23 | 27765.25 | mid band touch | 23.25 |
| 2026-05-04 | long | 11:20 | 27782.25 | 13:01 | 27722.50 | mid band touch | −59.75 |
| 2026-05-04 | short | 10:15 | 27892.75 | 10:59 | 27879.25 | mid band touch | 13.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | short | 10:00 | 27895.25 | 10:08 | 27857.25 | mid band touch | 38.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | long | 09:35 | 27827.75 | 09:36 | 27852.75 | mid band touch | 25.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | long | 14:40 | 27832.25 | 15:11 | 27855.25 | mid band touch | 23.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | short | 09:35 | 27736.50 | 10:37 | 27754.50 | mid band touch | −18.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | short | 13:15 | 27448.00 | 15:52 | 27582.50 | mid band touch | −134.50 |
| 2026-04-30 | long | 09:35 | 27345.00 | 10:51 | 27308.50 | mid band touch | −36.50 |
| 2026-04-29 | short | 15:00 | 27295.50 | 15:59 | 27337.25 | end of day 15:59 | −41.75 |
| 2026-04-29 | short | 14:00 | 27249.50 | 14:03 | 27209.75 | mid band touch | 39.75 |
| 2026-04-29 | long | 12:20 | 27210.00 | 13:20 | 27219.00 | mid band touch | 9.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | long | 11:55 | 27219.50 | 12:11 | 27272.50 | mid band touch | 53.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | short | 10:35 | 27286.25 | 11:11 | 27240.00 | mid band touch | 46.25 |
| 2026-04-29 | long | 09:35 | 27147.25 | 09:50 | 27217.25 | mid band touch | 70.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | short | 13:35 | 27103.25 | 15:34 | 27171.75 | mid band touch | −68.50 |
| 2026-04-28 | long | 10:40 | 27073.50 | 12:05 | 27069.25 | mid band touch | −4.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 347 long trades, won 66.0% of them and made -691.00 points (-$13,820 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,616.25 points on 845 trades on the 5-minute chart, -768.75 points on 186 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,873.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 367 short trades, won 60.8% of them and made -198.25 points (-$9,912 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -172.50 points on 808 trades on the 5-minute chart, 302.50 points on 236 trades on the 1-hour chart and -272.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on the 15-minute chart took 697 trades, won 62.6% of them and finished -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Bollinger lower band buy (20, 2) on ES futures?
The Bollinger Bands fade strategy won 61.7% of its 729 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 66.1% of 1,665 trades on the 5-minute chart, 55.3% of 436 trades on the 1-hour chart and 73.7% of 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Bollinger Bands fade strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy made -3,253.50 points on 1,662 trades on the 5-minute chart, -988.00 points on 697 trades on the 15-minute chart, -671.25 points on 394 trades on the 1-hour chart and -461.00 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands fade signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -691.00 points on 347 trades (66.0% won) and the short trades made -297.00 points on 350 trades (59.1% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,662 on the 5-minute chart, 394 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands fade strategy on NQ?
The Bollinger Bands fade strategy had a max drawdown of 3,987.75 points ($79,755 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,679.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,298.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,843.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Bollinger Bands fade strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 729 trades, won 61.7% of them and made -293.50 points (-$14,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands fade strategy took 697 trades, won 62.6% of them and made -988.00 points (-$19,760 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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