Strategy library · Mean reversion and bands
Bollinger Band squeeze backtest on NQ and ES futures
Bollinger squeeze (TTM style)
Also called: TTM squeeze, Bollinger Keltner squeeze, squeeze momentum strategy, buy when the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with upward momentum, short when the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with downward momentum
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with upward momentum?
What it is
A squeeze is when the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) sit inside the Keltner channel (20, 1.5). When the squeeze releases, this strategy trades in the direction of momentum, and exits on a close back through the EMA 20.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.4% of them and finished 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 172 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.5% and made 901.25 points ($18,025 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 333 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.8% of them and finished -224.75 points (-$11,237 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Squeeze = Bollinger (20, 2) inside Keltner (20, 1.5). When it releases, trade in the direction of momentum. Exit: Close back through EMA 20.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 899 | 37.0% | 3.83 | 1.169 | 3,441.50 | $68,830 | 1,926.50 | 873 | 36.5% | 0.73 | 1.150 | 635.50 | $31,775 | 582.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 471 | 37.2% | — | — | 422.50 | $8,450 | 2,957.75 | 434 | 37.6% | — | — | 694.00 | $34,700 | 167.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 428 | 36.9% | — | — | 3,019.00 | $60,380 | 1,076.00 | 439 | 35.5% | — | — | −58.50 | −$2,925 | 581.50 |
| 15 minute | 325 | 43.4% | 4.43 | 1.115 | 1,440.25 | $28,805 | 2,763.75 | 333 | 37.8% | −0.67 | 0.922 | −224.75 | −$11,237 | 428.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 172 | 46.5% | — | — | 901.25 | $18,025 | 1,998.25 | 179 | 41.3% | — | — | −152.50 | −$7,625 | 318.00 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 153 | 39.9% | — | — | 539.00 | $10,780 | 1,268.00 | 154 | 33.8% | — | — | −72.25 | −$3,612 | 271.75 |
| 1 hour | 95 | 46.3% | −6.82 | 0.841 | −647.75 | −$12,955 | 2,480.50 | 119 | 52.1% | 0.64 | 1.081 | 76.25 | $3,813 | 484.25 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 51 | 56.9% | — | — | −309.50 | −$6,190 | 1,061.50 | 69 | 55.1% | — | — | 55.00 | $2,750 | 212.75 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 44 | 34.1% | — | — | −338.25 | −$6,765 | 1,531.50 | 50 | 48.0% | — | — | 21.25 | $1,063 | 274.50 |
| Daily | 14 | 28.6% | −289.64 | 0.185 | −4,055.00 | −$81,100 | 4,450.25 | 12 | 25.0% | −30.04 | 0.448 | −360.50 | −$18,025 | 594.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | −2,138.75 | −$42,775 | 2,534.00 | 7 | 14.3% | — | — | −436.25 | −$21,812 | 436.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 6 | 16.7% | — | — | −1,916.25 | −$38,325 | 1,916.25 | 5 | 40.0% | — | — | 75.75 | $3,788 | 157.75 |
NQ Daily: small sample (14 trades). ES Daily: small sample (12 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 172 | 901.25 |
| Short | 153 | 539.00 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 12 | −51.00 |
| 2024-11 | 13 | 50.75 |
| 2024-12 | 14 | 593.25 |
| 2025-01 | 17 | −125.00 |
| 2025-02 | 13 | 266.25 |
| 2025-03 | 14 | −192.25 |
| 2025-04 | 12 | −1,062.25 |
| 2025-05 | 14 | −660.75 |
| 2025-06 | 15 | −322.75 |
| 2025-07 | 22 | −80.75 |
| 2025-08 | 14 | 384.00 |
| 2025-09 | 14 | 31.75 |
| 2025-10 | 16 | 870.00 |
| 2025-11 | 10 | −491.50 |
| 2025-12 | 14 | 117.75 |
| 2026-01 | 12 | 75.00 |
| 2026-02 | 11 | 804.00 |
| 2026-03 | 14 | 729.75 |
| 2026-04 | 12 | 486.00 |
| 2026-05 | 12 | −224.50 |
| 2026-06 | 12 | 301.25 |
| 2026-07 | 12 | −258.50 |
| 2026-08 | 16 | −462.25 |
| 2026-09 | 7 | 520.00 |
| 2026-10 | 3 | 142.00 |
Every trade, NQ 15 minute325 trades
Pick any of the 325 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (325), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | long | 10:30 | 24884.00 | 15:59 | 25011.75 | end of day 15:59 | 127.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 15:00 | 24838.00 | 15:59 | 24898.25 | end of day 15:59 | 60.25 |
| 2025-09-29 | long | 10:00 | 24942.00 | 11:15 | 24894.25 | close below ema20 | −47.75 |
| 2025-09-26 | short | 11:15 | 24553.50 | 11:30 | 24632.00 | close above ema20 | −78.50 |
| 2025-09-23 | short | 10:00 | 24940.50 | 15:59 | 24831.50 | end of day 15:59 | 109.00 |
| 2025-09-19 | long | 12:30 | 24817.50 | 15:59 | 24860.50 | end of day 15:59 | 43.00 |
| 2025-09-17 | short | 10:30 | 24440.00 | 13:45 | 24436.00 | close above ema20 | 4.00 |
| 2025-09-12 | long | 10:45 | 24082.00 | 15:59 | 24110.25 | end of day 15:59 | 28.25 |
| 2025-09-11 | long | 11:30 | 24037.75 | 15:59 | 24011.50 | end of day 15:59 | −26.25 |
| 2025-09-09 | short | 10:45 | 23744.25 | 12:15 | 23819.50 | close above ema20 | −75.25 |
| 2025-09-08 | long | 09:45 | 23830.75 | 12:45 | 23814.00 | close below ema20 | −16.75 |
| 2025-09-04 | long | 12:15 | 23548.25 | 15:59 | 23666.50 | end of day 15:59 | 118.25 |
| 2025-09-03 | short | 12:00 | 23415.00 | 12:30 | 23433.75 | close above ema20 | −18.75 |
| 2025-09-03 | long | 11:15 | 23491.75 | 11:30 | 23424.75 | close below ema20 | −67.00 |
| 2025-09-01 | long | 11:30 | 23503.00 | 12:59 | 23502.25 | early close | −0.75 |
| 2025-08-29 | short | 10:00 | 23519.75 | 15:45 | 23478.25 | close above ema20 | 41.50 |
| 2025-08-28 | long | 11:00 | 23714.25 | 15:59 | 23766.75 | end of day 15:59 | 52.50 |
| 2025-08-26 | long | 10:45 | 23546.00 | 13:45 | 23510.00 | close below ema20 | −36.00 |
| 2025-08-25 | long | 10:30 | 23540.25 | 14:30 | 23565.00 | close below ema20 | 24.75 |
| 2025-08-22 | long | 10:15 | 23586.75 | 15:59 | 23565.00 | end of day 15:59 | −21.75 |
| 2025-08-21 | short | 13:00 | 23161.50 | 15:00 | 23225.00 | close above ema20 | −63.50 |
| 2025-08-20 | short | 09:45 | 23323.00 | 12:30 | 23298.00 | close above ema20 | 25.00 |
| 2025-08-18 | long | 15:30 | 23791.50 | 15:59 | 23797.00 | end of day 15:59 | 5.50 |
| 2025-08-15 | short | 10:00 | 23801.00 | 14:00 | 23839.75 | close above ema20 | −38.75 |
| 2025-08-11 | short | 14:00 | 23698.00 | 15:59 | 23638.50 | end of day 15:59 | 59.50 |
| 2025-08-07 | short | 11:30 | 23510.25 | 15:59 | 23501.00 | end of day 15:59 | 9.25 |
| 2025-08-06 | long | 10:45 | 23254.75 | 15:59 | 23424.75 | end of day 15:59 | 170.00 |
| 2025-08-05 | short | 10:30 | 23289.75 | 14:00 | 23241.00 | close above ema20 | 48.75 |
| 2025-08-04 | long | 09:45 | 23189.50 | 15:59 | 23296.75 | end of day 15:59 | 107.25 |
| 2025-07-31 | short | 09:45 | 23636.25 | 15:59 | 23354.25 | end of day 15:59 | 282.00 |
| 2025-07-30 | long | 15:15 | 23439.25 | 15:30 | 23395.25 | close below ema20 | −44.00 |
| 2025-07-30 | long | 13:00 | 23534.00 | 15:00 | 23412.25 | close below ema20 | −121.75 |
| 2025-07-29 | short | 11:00 | 23527.50 | 15:59 | 23457.00 | end of day 15:59 | 70.50 |
| 2025-07-28 | short | 14:45 | 23456.75 | 15:59 | 23491.75 | end of day 15:59 | −35.00 |
| 2025-07-25 | long | 11:00 | 23405.25 | 15:59 | 23422.50 | end of day 15:59 | 17.25 |
| 2025-07-24 | long | 13:00 | 23370.25 | 15:59 | 23376.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.50 |
| 2025-07-24 | long | 12:00 | 23388.00 | 12:15 | 23356.25 | close below ema20 | −31.75 |
| 2025-07-24 | short | 10:30 | 23332.50 | 11:00 | 23372.50 | close above ema20 | −40.00 |
| 2025-07-18 | short | 10:45 | 23223.25 | 12:00 | 23247.75 | close above ema20 | −24.50 |
| 2025-07-17 | long | 10:15 | 23153.00 | 15:59 | 23257.75 | end of day 15:59 | 104.75 |
| 2025-07-16 | long | 14:00 | 23028.50 | 15:59 | 23074.50 | end of day 15:59 | 46.00 |
| 2025-07-15 | short | 15:30 | 23089.00 | 15:59 | 23052.25 | end of day 15:59 | 36.75 |
| 2025-07-15 | short | 13:00 | 23098.50 | 14:00 | 23170.00 | close above ema20 | −71.50 |
| 2025-07-14 | long | 11:00 | 22991.50 | 15:59 | 23034.25 | end of day 15:59 | 42.75 |
| 2025-07-11 | long | 15:45 | 22969.75 | 15:59 | 22955.25 | end of day 15:59 | −14.50 |
| 2025-07-11 | long | 10:15 | 22978.50 | 11:15 | 22915.75 | close below ema20 | −62.75 |
| 2025-07-10 | short | 10:00 | 22960.75 | 11:45 | 23011.50 | close above ema20 | −50.75 |
| 2025-07-08 | short | 10:00 | 22882.00 | 10:45 | 22927.50 | close above ema20 | −45.50 |
| 2025-07-07 | short | 14:30 | 22786.25 | 15:59 | 22883.25 | end of day 15:59 | −97.00 |
| 2025-07-07 | short | 10:45 | 22919.25 | 12:15 | 22948.50 | close above ema20 | −29.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with upward momentum?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 172 long trades, won 46.5% of them and made 901.25 points ($18,025 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 422.50 points on 471 trades on the 5-minute chart, -309.50 points on 51 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,138.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the Bollinger Band squeeze inside the Keltner Channel releases with downward momentum?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 154 short trades, won 33.8% of them and made -72.25 points (-$3,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -58.50 points on 439 trades on the 5-minute chart, 21.25 points on 50 trades on the 1-hour chart and 75.75 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on the 15-minute chart took 325 trades, won 43.4% of them and finished 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Bollinger squeeze (TTM style) on ES futures?
The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy won 37.8% of its 333 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.5% of 873 trades on the 5-minute chart, 52.1% of 119 trades on the 1-hour chart and 25.0% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy made 3,441.50 points on 899 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,440.25 points on 325 trades on the 15-minute chart, -647.75 points on 95 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,055.00 points on 14 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Band squeeze signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 901.25 points on 172 trades (46.5% won) and the short trades made 539.00 points on 153 trades (39.9% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 899 on the 5-minute chart, 95 on the 1-hour chart and 14 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy on NQ?
The Bollinger Band squeeze strategy had a max drawdown of 2,763.75 points ($55,275 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,926.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,480.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,450.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 333 trades, won 37.8% of them and made -224.75 points (-$11,237 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Band squeeze strategy took 325 trades, won 43.4% of them and made 1,440.25 points ($28,805 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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