Strategy library · Moving averages
EMA 12/26 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 12 / 26 cross
Also called: 12 26 EMA crossover, 12 and 26 EMA strategy, buy when the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA, short when the 12 EMA crosses below the 26 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA?
What it is
An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 12-period EMA crosses above the 26-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 233 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.8% and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 494 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.7% of them and finished 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when EMA 12 crosses above EMA 26; short below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1290 | 36.1% | 0.52 | 1.015 | 671.00 | $13,420 | 3,798.50 | 1287 | 36.3% | 0.14 | 1.020 | 185.75 | $9,288 | 582.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 652 | 37.6% | — | — | −908.50 | −$18,170 | 2,750.00 | 644 | 38.5% | — | — | −213.75 | −$10,687 | 554.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 638 | 34.5% | — | — | 1,579.50 | $31,590 | 2,134.25 | 643 | 34.1% | — | — | 399.50 | $19,975 | 436.50 |
| 15 minute | 454 | 43.8% | 1.53 | 1.031 | 696.00 | $13,920 | 4,214.75 | 494 | 44.7% | 0.40 | 1.040 | 199.00 | $9,950 | 673.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 233 | 46.8% | — | — | −78.50 | −$1,570 | 2,718.25 | 240 | 45.4% | — | — | −243.75 | −$12,187 | 602.00 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 221 | 40.7% | — | — | 774.50 | $15,490 | 2,393.00 | 254 | 44.1% | — | — | 442.75 | $22,138 | 308.25 |
| 1 hour | 153 | 53.6% | 19.01 | 1.475 | 2,908.75 | $58,175 | 1,656.75 | 160 | 51.3% | 2.87 | 1.324 | 459.75 | $22,988 | 181.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 73 | 58.9% | — | — | 1,952.00 | $39,040 | 551.00 | 75 | 58.7% | — | — | 451.00 | $22,550 | 96.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 80 | 48.8% | — | — | 956.75 | $19,135 | 1,820.75 | 85 | 44.7% | — | — | 8.75 | $438 | 301.00 |
| Daily | 20 | 20.0% | −28.95 | 0.946 | −579.00 | −$11,580 | 5,759.75 | 18 | 22.2% | 8.49 | 1.092 | 152.75 | $7,638 | 765.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 10 | 30.0% | — | — | 3,888.75 | $77,775 | 2,337.50 | 9 | 33.3% | — | — | 960.75 | $48,038 | 233.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 10 | 10.0% | — | — | −4,467.75 | −$89,355 | 5,463.25 | 9 | 11.1% | — | — | −808.00 | −$40,400 | 844.50 |
ES Daily: small sample (18 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 240 | −243.75 |
| Short | 254 | 442.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | −7.75 |
| 2024-09 | 25 | −156.50 |
| 2024-10 | 22 | −30.75 |
| 2024-11 | 13 | 105.00 |
| 2024-12 | 18 | 342.25 |
| 2025-01 | 19 | −20.50 |
| 2025-02 | 26 | 15.50 |
| 2025-03 | 19 | −4.75 |
| 2025-04 | 20 | 438.25 |
| 2025-05 | 28 | −302.50 |
| 2025-06 | 19 | −90.75 |
| 2025-07 | 22 | −5.25 |
| 2025-08 | 18 | 24.00 |
| 2025-09 | 21 | 108.00 |
| 2025-10 | 20 | 178.25 |
| 2025-11 | 22 | 82.50 |
| 2025-12 | 27 | 8.75 |
| 2026-01 | 15 | 65.75 |
| 2026-02 | 20 | −1.25 |
| 2026-03 | 15 | −18.00 |
| 2026-04 | 21 | −76.75 |
| 2026-05 | 18 | −142.25 |
| 2026-06 | 21 | −120.25 |
| 2026-07 | 25 | −135.25 |
| 2026-08 | 17 | −56.75 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute494 trades
Pick any of the 494 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (494), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-27 | long | 10:30 | 6041.00 | 15:59 | 6046.75 | end of day 15:59 | 5.75 |
| 2025-01-24 | short | 13:15 | 6139.00 | 15:59 | 6132.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.25 |
| 2025-01-14 | short | 15:00 | 5865.75 | 15:59 | 5882.00 | end of day 15:59 | −16.25 |
| 2025-01-14 | long | 14:45 | 5891.75 | 15:00 | 5865.75 | opposite cross | −26.00 |
| 2025-01-14 | short | 10:00 | 5882.25 | 14:45 | 5891.75 | opposite cross | −9.50 |
| 2025-01-14 | long | 09:45 | 5907.50 | 10:00 | 5882.25 | opposite cross | −25.25 |
| 2025-01-13 | long | 10:45 | 5846.75 | 15:59 | 5875.25 | end of day 15:59 | 28.50 |
| 2025-01-13 | short | 10:30 | 5819.75 | 10:45 | 5846.75 | opposite cross | −27.00 |
| 2025-01-13 | long | 10:15 | 5828.25 | 10:30 | 5819.75 | opposite cross | −8.50 |
| 2025-01-08 | long | 14:30 | 5969.00 | 15:59 | 5959.00 | end of day 15:59 | −10.00 |
| 2025-01-07 | short | 10:30 | 6003.50 | 15:59 | 5955.00 | end of day 15:59 | 48.50 |
| 2025-01-06 | short | 14:30 | 6022.50 | 15:59 | 6022.50 | end of day 15:59 | 0.00 |
| 2025-01-02 | short | 10:30 | 5951.00 | 15:59 | 5917.25 | end of day 15:59 | 33.75 |
| 2024-12-31 | short | 10:45 | 5962.00 | 15:59 | 5935.00 | end of day 15:59 | 27.00 |
| 2024-12-30 | long | 13:30 | 5981.00 | 15:59 | 5958.00 | end of day 15:59 | −23.00 |
| 2024-12-26 | long | 11:00 | 6090.50 | 15:59 | 6094.75 | end of day 15:59 | 4.25 |
| 2024-12-23 | long | 12:45 | 6014.75 | 15:59 | 6036.75 | end of day 15:59 | 22.00 |
| 2024-12-20 | long | 09:45 | 5918.25 | 15:59 | 6002.25 | end of day 15:59 | 84.00 |
| 2024-12-19 | short | 12:30 | 5953.00 | 15:59 | 5934.25 | end of day 15:59 | 18.75 |
| 2024-12-18 | short | 13:15 | 6135.50 | 15:59 | 5939.25 | end of day 15:59 | 196.25 |
| 2024-12-18 | long | 11:45 | 6141.50 | 13:15 | 6135.50 | opposite cross | −6.00 |
| 2024-12-13 | short | 10:30 | 6063.75 | 15:59 | 6055.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2024-12-12 | short | 13:45 | 6075.75 | 15:59 | 6059.75 | end of day 15:59 | 16.00 |
| 2024-12-12 | long | 13:15 | 6084.00 | 13:45 | 6075.75 | opposite cross | −8.25 |
| 2024-12-12 | short | 11:45 | 6080.50 | 13:15 | 6084.00 | opposite cross | −3.50 |
| 2024-12-12 | long | 11:30 | 6084.75 | 11:45 | 6080.50 | opposite cross | −4.25 |
| 2024-12-10 | short | 12:00 | 6063.75 | 15:59 | 6047.50 | end of day 15:59 | 16.25 |
| 2024-12-05 | short | 14:45 | 6094.75 | 15:59 | 6088.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.00 |
| 2024-12-05 | long | 12:00 | 6100.00 | 14:45 | 6094.75 | opposite cross | −5.25 |
| 2024-12-05 | short | 11:00 | 6091.75 | 12:00 | 6100.00 | opposite cross | −8.25 |
| 2024-12-03 | long | 14:30 | 6060.50 | 15:59 | 6062.75 | end of day 15:59 | 2.25 |
| 2024-11-29 | long | 10:15 | 6042.00 | 13:14 | 6051.50 | early close | 9.50 |
| 2024-11-27 | short | 10:15 | 6026.75 | 15:59 | 6015.75 | end of day 15:59 | 11.00 |
| 2024-11-25 | short | 11:30 | 6010.25 | 15:59 | 6005.50 | end of day 15:59 | 4.75 |
| 2024-11-19 | long | 11:15 | 5917.00 | 15:59 | 5939.00 | end of day 15:59 | 22.00 |
| 2024-11-18 | long | 10:30 | 5911.50 | 15:59 | 5920.25 | end of day 15:59 | 8.75 |
| 2024-11-14 | short | 09:45 | 6001.00 | 15:59 | 5976.75 | end of day 15:59 | 24.25 |
| 2024-11-12 | long | 15:15 | 6021.00 | 15:59 | 6012.50 | end of day 15:59 | −8.50 |
| 2024-11-12 | short | 11:00 | 6015.50 | 15:15 | 6021.00 | opposite cross | −5.50 |
| 2024-11-11 | short | 10:00 | 6035.50 | 15:59 | 6032.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.25 |
| 2024-11-08 | long | 09:45 | 6007.50 | 15:59 | 6027.00 | end of day 15:59 | 19.50 |
| 2024-11-06 | long | 11:45 | 5934.25 | 15:59 | 5957.50 | end of day 15:59 | 23.25 |
| 2024-11-06 | short | 11:00 | 5917.50 | 11:45 | 5934.25 | opposite cross | −16.75 |
| 2024-11-01 | short | 14:30 | 5766.25 | 15:59 | 5756.75 | end of day 15:59 | 9.50 |
| 2024-10-30 | short | 13:30 | 5868.25 | 15:59 | 5853.00 | end of day 15:59 | 15.25 |
| 2024-10-30 | long | 11:45 | 5884.75 | 13:30 | 5868.25 | opposite cross | −16.50 |
| 2024-10-29 | long | 11:00 | 5868.00 | 15:59 | 5871.75 | end of day 15:59 | 3.75 |
| 2024-10-28 | short | 09:45 | 5871.00 | 15:59 | 5862.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.25 |
| 2024-10-25 | short | 13:45 | 5840.00 | 15:59 | 5845.50 | end of day 15:59 | −5.50 |
| 2024-10-24 | short | 10:00 | 5850.75 | 15:59 | 5849.00 | end of day 15:59 | 1.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 233 long trades, won 46.8% of them and made -78.50 points (-$1,570 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -908.50 points on 652 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,952.00 points on 73 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,888.75 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 12 EMA crosses below the 26 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 254 short trades, won 44.1% of them and made 442.75 points ($22,138 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 399.50 points on 643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 8.75 points on 85 trades on the 1-hour chart and -808.00 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 12 / 26 cross on ES futures?
The EMA 12/26 cross strategy won 44.7% of its 494 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.3% of 1,287 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.3% of 160 trades on the 1-hour chart and 22.2% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the EMA 12/26 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy made 671.00 points on 1,290 trades on the 5-minute chart, 696.00 points on 454 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,908.75 points on 153 trades on the 1-hour chart and -579.00 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 12/26 cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -78.50 points on 233 trades (46.8% won) and the short trades made 774.50 points on 221 trades (40.7% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,290 on the 5-minute chart, 153 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the EMA 12/26 cross strategy on NQ?
The EMA 12/26 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,214.75 points ($84,295 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,798.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,656.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,759.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the EMA 12/26 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 494 trades, won 44.7% of them and made 199.00 points ($9,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 12/26 cross strategy took 454 trades, won 43.8% of them and made 696.00 points ($13,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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