Strategy library · Moving averages
20 EMA pullback in a trend backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 20 pullback in a trend
Also called: EMA pullback strategy, pullback to the 20 EMA, trend pullback strategy, buy when in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA, short when in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA?
What it is
An uptrend is defined as a close above the EMA 50 with the EMA 20 above the EMA 50, and a pullback is a bar whose low touches the EMA 20. This strategy goes long when that bar closes above the EMA 20, with the stop 1 tick under the bar's low and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 526 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.0% and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.7% of them and finished 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Trend up = close above EMA 50 and EMA 20 above EMA 50. Long when a bar's low touches EMA 20 and it closes above EMA 20. Exit: Stop 1 tick under that bar's low, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 2648 | 34.3% | 0.62 | 1.028 | 1,638.25 | $32,765 | 2,318.00 | 2688 | 34.4% | −0.07 | 0.986 | −177.50 | −$8,875 | 1,027.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 1403 | 34.4% | — | — | 1,736.50 | $34,730 | 1,882.75 | 1409 | 33.5% | — | — | −54.50 | −$2,725 | 434.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1245 | 34.1% | — | — | −98.25 | −$1,965 | 3,003.25 | 1279 | 35.4% | — | — | −123.00 | −$6,150 | 871.75 |
| 15 minute | 1015 | 37.6% | 2.04 | 1.059 | 2,069.75 | $41,395 | 3,644.00 | 1089 | 37.7% | 0.33 | 1.047 | 355.00 | $17,750 | 668.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 526 | 38.0% | — | — | 1,944.50 | $38,890 | 1,459.75 | 559 | 38.8% | — | — | 401.75 | $20,088 | 263.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 489 | 37.2% | — | — | 125.25 | $2,505 | 3,181.75 | 530 | 36.4% | — | — | −46.75 | −$2,337 | 695.00 |
| 1 hour | 401 | 44.9% | 6.40 | 1.142 | 2,567.75 | $51,355 | 1,816.50 | 441 | 42.9% | 0.97 | 1.104 | 429.00 | $21,450 | 419.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 242 | 45.9% | — | — | 145.50 | $2,910 | 1,234.75 | 263 | 43.7% | — | — | 179.25 | $8,963 | 248.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 159 | 43.4% | — | — | 2,422.25 | $48,445 | 1,393.00 | 178 | 41.6% | — | — | 249.75 | $12,488 | 361.75 |
| Daily | 38 | 39.5% | 99.28 | 1.418 | 3,772.75 | $75,455 | 2,769.00 | 31 | 45.2% | 33.60 | 1.725 | 1,041.75 | $52,088 | 471.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 27 | 33.3% | — | — | −264.50 | −$5,290 | 4,751.00 | 25 | 40.0% | — | — | 502.50 | $25,125 | 643.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 11 | 54.6% | — | — | 4,037.25 | $80,745 | 1,143.75 | 6 | 66.7% | — | — | 539.25 | $26,963 | 229.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES daily: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 25 | 502.50 |
| Short | 6 | 539.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-09 | 1 | 292.50 |
| 2024-10 | 1 | −43.25 |
| 2024-11 | 3 | 304.25 |
| 2024-12 | 1 | −69.50 |
| 2025-01 | 2 | −159.25 |
| 2025-02 | 1 | −133.75 |
| 2025-03 | 1 | 199.00 |
| 2025-04 | 2 | 216.25 |
| 2025-05 | 1 | 127.50 |
| 2025-06 | 3 | 188.25 |
| 2025-08 | 1 | 238.00 |
| 2025-09 | 1 | 77.50 |
| 2025-10 | 2 | −214.00 |
| 2025-11 | 1 | −106.75 |
| 2026-03 | 1 | 150.00 |
| 2026-04 | 1 | 21.50 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | −72.75 |
| 2026-07 | 4 | −249.75 |
| 2026-08 | 3 | 276.00 |
Every trade, ES daily31 trades
Daily results show the table and the equity line; there is no chart viewer for them yet.
All trades (31), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | long | 2026-08-25 18:00 | 7691.50 | 2026-08-27 13:08 | 7754.50 | target | 63.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | long | 2026-08-23 18:00 | 7693.50 | 2026-08-24 09:44 | 7661.00 | stop | −32.50 |
| 2026-08-03 | long | 2026-08-02 18:00 | 7550.00 | 2026-08-05 01:14 | 7795.50 | target | 245.50 |
| 2026-07-22 | long | 2026-07-21 18:00 | 7545.00 | 2026-07-23 08:37 | 7472.75 | stop | −72.25 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 2026-07-09 18:00 | 7587.25 | 2026-07-17 00:21 | 7516.00 | stop | −71.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | long | 2026-07-02 18:00 | 7523.75 | 2026-07-08 04:40 | 7479.25 | stop | −44.50 |
| 2026-07-01 | long | 2026-06-30 18:00 | 7543.25 | 2026-07-02 13:48 | 7481.50 | stop | −61.75 |
| 2026-06-19 | long | 2026-06-18 18:00 | 7576.75 | 2026-06-22 23:34 | 7504.00 | stop | −72.75 |
| 2026-04-07 | short | 2026-04-06 18:00 | 6650.50 | 2026-04-06 21:37 | 6629.00 | target | 21.50 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 2026-03-05 18:00 | 6826.00 | 2026-03-08 18:00 | 6676.00 | target | 150.00 |
| 2025-11-26 | long | 2025-11-25 18:00 | 6781.00 | 2026-03-03 10:18 | 6732.75 | stop | −106.75 |
| 2025-10-20 | long | 2025-10-19 18:00 | 6721.00 | 2025-11-20 15:40 | 6571.00 | stop | −150.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | long | 2025-10-15 18:00 | 6715.25 | 2025-10-16 14:12 | 6651.25 | stop | −64.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | long | 2025-09-25 18:00 | 6662.75 | 2025-09-30 15:52 | 6740.25 | target | 77.50 |
| 2025-08-05 | long | 2025-08-04 18:00 | 6370.00 | 2025-09-15 08:23 | 6608.00 | target | 238.00 |
| 2025-06-24 | long | 2025-06-23 18:00 | 6078.00 | 2025-07-03 10:02 | 6316.50 | target | 238.50 |
| 2025-06-17 | long | 2025-06-16 18:00 | 6093.00 | 2025-06-19 03:56 | 5999.25 | stop | −93.75 |
| 2025-06-16 | long | 2025-06-15 18:00 | 5949.00 | 2025-06-15 22:15 | 5992.50 | target | 43.50 |
| 2025-05-26 | long | 2025-05-25 18:00 | 5820.00 | 2025-05-28 09:39 | 5947.50 | target | 127.50 |
| 2025-04-11 | short | 2025-04-10 18:00 | 5299.25 | 2025-04-24 16:01 | 5529.00 | stop | −229.75 |
| 2025-04-03 | short | 2025-04-02 18:00 | 5550.50 | 2025-04-04 15:57 | 5104.50 | target | 446.00 |
| 2025-03-27 | short | 2025-03-26 18:00 | 5737.25 | 2025-03-31 09:45 | 5538.25 | target | 199.00 |
| 2025-02-04 | long | 2025-02-03 18:00 | 6069.00 | 2025-02-25 10:29 | 5935.25 | stop | −133.75 |
| 2025-01-28 | long | 2025-01-27 18:00 | 6059.50 | 2025-02-02 18:00 | 5947.75 | stop | −111.75 |
| 2025-01-17 | short | 2025-01-16 18:00 | 5970.25 | 2025-01-17 08:33 | 6017.75 | stop | −47.50 |
| 2024-12-26 | long | 2024-12-25 18:00 | 6099.25 | 2024-12-27 10:01 | 6029.75 | stop | −69.50 |
| 2024-11-20 | long | 2024-11-19 18:00 | 5937.75 | 2024-12-05 10:03 | 6103.75 | target | 166.00 |
| 2024-11-19 | long | 2024-11-18 18:00 | 5919.00 | 2024-11-19 04:29 | 5886.25 | stop | −32.75 |
| 2024-11-06 | long | 2024-11-05 18:00 | 5820.25 | 2024-11-07 10:31 | 5991.25 | target | 171.00 |
| 2024-10-24 | long | 2024-10-23 18:00 | 5844.00 | 2024-10-31 09:31 | 5800.75 | stop | −43.25 |
| 2024-09-12 | long | 2024-09-11 18:00 | 5558.00 | 2024-10-14 14:42 | 5911.00 | target | 292.50 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 526 long trades, won 38.0% of them and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,736.50 points on 1,403 trades on the 5-minute chart, 145.50 points on 242 trades on the 1-hour chart and -264.50 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 530 short trades, won 36.4% of them and made -46.75 points (-$2,337 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -123.00 points on 1,279 trades on the 5-minute chart, 249.75 points on 178 trades on the 1-hour chart and 539.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 20 pullback in a trend on ES futures?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy won 37.7% of its 1,089 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.4% of 2,688 trades on the 5-minute chart, 42.9% of 441 trades on the 1-hour chart and 45.2% of 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy made 1,638.25 points on 2,648 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,069.75 points on 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,567.75 points on 401 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,772.75 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell 20 EMA pullback in a trend signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,944.50 points on 526 trades (38.0% won) and the short trades made 125.25 points on 489 trades (37.2% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy take on NQ in two years?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,648 on the 5-minute chart, 401 on the 1-hour chart and 38 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy had a max drawdown of 3,644.00 points ($72,880 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,318.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,816.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,769.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades, won 37.7% of them and made 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and made 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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