Strategy library · Moving averages
20 EMA pullback in a trend backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 20 pullback in a trend
Also called: EMA pullback strategy, pullback to the 20 EMA, trend pullback strategy, buy when in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA, short when in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA?
What it is
An uptrend is defined as a close above the EMA 50 with the EMA 20 above the EMA 50, and a pullback is a bar whose low touches the EMA 20. This strategy goes long when that bar closes above the EMA 20, with the stop 1 tick under the bar's low and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 526 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.0% and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.7% of them and finished 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Trend up = close above EMA 50 and EMA 20 above EMA 50. Long when a bar's low touches EMA 20 and it closes above EMA 20. Exit: Stop 1 tick under that bar's low, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 2648 | 34.3% | 0.62 | 1.028 | 1,638.25 | $32,765 | 2,318.00 | 2688 | 34.4% | −0.07 | 0.986 | −177.50 | −$8,875 | 1,027.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 1403 | 34.4% | — | — | 1,736.50 | $34,730 | 1,882.75 | 1409 | 33.5% | — | — | −54.50 | −$2,725 | 434.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1245 | 34.1% | — | — | −98.25 | −$1,965 | 3,003.25 | 1279 | 35.4% | — | — | −123.00 | −$6,150 | 871.75 |
| 15 minute | 1015 | 37.6% | 2.04 | 1.059 | 2,069.75 | $41,395 | 3,644.00 | 1089 | 37.7% | 0.33 | 1.047 | 355.00 | $17,750 | 668.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 526 | 38.0% | — | — | 1,944.50 | $38,890 | 1,459.75 | 559 | 38.8% | — | — | 401.75 | $20,088 | 263.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 489 | 37.2% | — | — | 125.25 | $2,505 | 3,181.75 | 530 | 36.4% | — | — | −46.75 | −$2,337 | 695.00 |
| 1 hour | 401 | 44.9% | 6.40 | 1.142 | 2,567.75 | $51,355 | 1,816.50 | 441 | 42.9% | 0.97 | 1.104 | 429.00 | $21,450 | 419.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 242 | 45.9% | — | — | 145.50 | $2,910 | 1,234.75 | 263 | 43.7% | — | — | 179.25 | $8,963 | 248.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 159 | 43.4% | — | — | 2,422.25 | $48,445 | 1,393.00 | 178 | 41.6% | — | — | 249.75 | $12,488 | 361.75 |
| Daily | 38 | 39.5% | 99.28 | 1.418 | 3,772.75 | $75,455 | 2,769.00 | 31 | 45.2% | 33.60 | 1.725 | 1,041.75 | $52,088 | 471.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 27 | 33.3% | — | — | −264.50 | −$5,290 | 4,751.00 | 25 | 40.0% | — | — | 502.50 | $25,125 | 643.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 11 | 54.6% | — | — | 4,037.25 | $80,745 | 1,143.75 | 6 | 66.7% | — | — | 539.25 | $26,963 | 229.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 1403 | 1,736.50 |
| Short | 1245 | −98.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 99 | 206.25 |
| 2024-11 | 95 | −459.25 |
| 2024-12 | 100 | 719.75 |
| 2025-01 | 120 | −88.25 |
| 2025-02 | 100 | 70.00 |
| 2025-03 | 122 | 534.25 |
| 2025-04 | 108 | 1,668.25 |
| 2025-05 | 128 | −810.75 |
| 2025-06 | 109 | −94.00 |
| 2025-07 | 133 | −355.75 |
| 2025-08 | 122 | 286.00 |
| 2025-09 | 124 | −325.50 |
| 2025-10 | 116 | 573.25 |
| 2025-11 | 76 | 738.50 |
| 2025-12 | 121 | −360.00 |
| 2026-01 | 106 | 129.00 |
| 2026-02 | 85 | 527.50 |
| 2026-03 | 113 | −136.75 |
| 2026-04 | 115 | −224.00 |
| 2026-05 | 100 | 311.00 |
| 2026-06 | 130 | −1,427.50 |
| 2026-07 | 108 | 820.00 |
| 2026-08 | 92 | −910.25 |
| 2026-09 | 98 | −23.00 |
| 2026-10 | 28 | 269.50 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute2648 trades
Pick any of the 2648 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (2648), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | short | 09:35 | 24561.75 | 10:20 | 24641.75 | stop | −80.00 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 12:25 | 24908.50 | 15:59 | 24920.50 | end of day 15:59 | 12.00 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 10:35 | 24852.00 | 10:50 | 24795.25 | stop | −56.75 |
| 2025-10-13 | short | 09:35 | 24759.75 | 09:50 | 24843.00 | stop | −83.25 |
| 2025-10-10 | short | 14:30 | 24667.75 | 15:11 | 24567.75 | target | 100.00 |
| 2025-10-10 | short | 13:40 | 24717.50 | 13:56 | 24650.00 | target | 67.50 |
| 2025-10-10 | long | 09:35 | 25328.50 | 10:57 | 25293.25 | stop | −35.25 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 14:30 | 25213.25 | 14:56 | 25234.75 | stop | −21.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 14:05 | 25197.75 | 14:16 | 25219.25 | stop | −21.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 13:55 | 25205.50 | 13:59 | 25218.25 | stop | −12.75 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 12:55 | 25227.25 | 13:35 | 25160.75 | target | 66.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 12:40 | 25250.50 | 12:41 | 25228.00 | target | 22.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 11:20 | 25255.75 | 11:31 | 25219.25 | target | 36.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 11:05 | 25257.50 | 11:15 | 25267.25 | stop | −9.75 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 09:35 | 25307.25 | 09:55 | 25251.75 | target | 55.50 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 15:05 | 25283.00 | 15:27 | 25315.50 | target | 32.50 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 13:00 | 25251.25 | 13:48 | 25282.25 | target | 31.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 11:00 | 25194.00 | 11:25 | 25237.00 | target | 43.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 09:35 | 25123.75 | 10:10 | 25223.75 | target | 100.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | short | 12:50 | 25033.00 | 15:59 | 25045.25 | end of day 15:59 | −12.25 |
| 2025-10-07 | long | 10:10 | 25246.00 | 10:27 | 25214.00 | stop | −32.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | long | 09:35 | 25239.00 | 10:03 | 25216.75 | stop | −22.25 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 15:10 | 25235.00 | 15:20 | 25227.25 | stop | −7.75 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 13:20 | 25199.75 | 14:04 | 25233.75 | target | 34.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 13:15 | 25192.50 | 13:15 | 25184.00 | stop | −8.50 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 13:10 | 25191.50 | 13:10 | 25189.00 | stop | −2.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | short | 14:35 | 25011.50 | 15:59 | 24996.75 | end of day 15:59 | 14.75 |
| 2025-10-03 | short | 14:25 | 25020.00 | 14:26 | 25026.25 | stop | −6.25 |
| 2025-10-03 | long | 12:30 | 25142.25 | 12:39 | 25127.75 | stop | −14.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | short | 10:00 | 25105.75 | 11:21 | 25138.50 | stop | −32.75 |
| 2025-10-03 | short | 09:45 | 25133.75 | 09:53 | 25165.75 | stop | −32.00 |
| 2025-10-02 | long | 15:45 | 25112.00 | 15:50 | 25102.00 | stop | −10.00 |
| 2025-10-02 | long | 15:40 | 25111.75 | 15:40 | 25103.00 | stop | −8.75 |
| 2025-10-02 | short | 12:50 | 25052.75 | 12:50 | 25064.00 | stop | −11.25 |
| 2025-10-02 | short | 12:45 | 25050.25 | 12:46 | 25063.25 | stop | −13.00 |
| 2025-10-01 | long | 15:30 | 25023.75 | 15:44 | 25007.75 | stop | −16.00 |
| 2025-10-01 | long | 10:05 | 24822.00 | 13:02 | 24966.50 | target | 144.50 |
| 2025-10-01 | long | 09:35 | 24816.00 | 09:49 | 24742.50 | stop | −73.50 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 14:00 | 24768.50 | 14:10 | 24795.75 | stop | −27.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 12:45 | 24814.50 | 12:47 | 24795.75 | stop | −18.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 12:30 | 24811.00 | 12:42 | 24801.75 | stop | −9.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 12:10 | 24798.00 | 12:20 | 24816.50 | stop | −18.50 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:40 | 24757.00 | 10:45 | 24800.25 | stop | −43.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:10 | 24756.50 | 10:31 | 24801.25 | stop | −44.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 09:50 | 24780.50 | 09:55 | 24728.50 | target | 52.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 15:45 | 24822.25 | 15:46 | 24831.00 | stop | −8.75 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 14:40 | 24844.00 | 15:07 | 24819.00 | target | 25.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 12:45 | 24840.25 | 14:22 | 24866.00 | stop | −25.75 |
| 2025-09-29 | long | 09:45 | 24914.00 | 11:17 | 24866.75 | stop | −47.25 |
| 2025-09-26 | long | 14:00 | 24691.75 | 15:59 | 24725.50 | end of day 15:59 | 33.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time in an uptrend a bar's low touches the 20 EMA and it closes above the 20 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 526 long trades, won 38.0% of them and made 1,944.50 points ($38,890 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,736.50 points on 1,403 trades on the 5-minute chart, 145.50 points on 242 trades on the 1-hour chart and -264.50 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time in a downtrend a bar's high touches the 20 EMA and it closes below the 20 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 530 short trades, won 36.4% of them and made -46.75 points (-$2,337 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -123.00 points on 1,279 trades on the 5-minute chart, 249.75 points on 178 trades on the 1-hour chart and 539.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and finished 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 20 pullback in a trend on ES futures?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy won 37.7% of its 1,089 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.4% of 2,688 trades on the 5-minute chart, 42.9% of 441 trades on the 1-hour chart and 45.2% of 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy made 1,638.25 points on 2,648 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,069.75 points on 1,015 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,567.75 points on 401 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,772.75 points on 38 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell 20 EMA pullback in a trend signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,944.50 points on 526 trades (38.0% won) and the short trades made 125.25 points on 489 trades (37.2% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy take on NQ in two years?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,648 on the 5-minute chart, 401 on the 1-hour chart and 38 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy on NQ?
The 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy had a max drawdown of 3,644.00 points ($72,880 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,318.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,816.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,769.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,089 trades, won 37.7% of them and made 355.00 points ($17,750 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 20 EMA pullback in a trend strategy took 1,015 trades, won 37.6% of them and made 2,069.75 points ($41,395 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.