Strategy library · Moving averages
EMA 9/21 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 9 / 21 cross
Also called: 9 21 EMA crossover, 9 and 21 EMA strategy, EMA crossover strategy, 9 EMA crosses 21 EMA, buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA, short when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA?
What it is
An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 9-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 285 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.9% and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.3% of them and finished 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when EMA 9 crosses above EMA 21; short when it crosses below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1690 | 34.3% | 0.38 | 1.012 | 649.50 | $12,990 | 5,015.75 | 1643 | 36.1% | 0.52 | 1.080 | 856.50 | $42,825 | 449.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 849 | 36.4% | — | — | 1,357.50 | $27,150 | 3,011.00 | 822 | 38.1% | — | — | 516.75 | $25,838 | 397.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 841 | 32.2% | — | — | −708.00 | −$14,160 | 3,349.50 | 821 | 34.1% | — | — | 339.75 | $16,988 | 357.25 |
| 15 minute | 549 | 41.5% | 1.14 | 1.025 | 627.25 | $12,545 | 3,680.00 | 606 | 41.3% | 0.25 | 1.026 | 153.75 | $7,688 | 666.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 285 | 43.9% | — | — | −399.75 | −$7,995 | 2,631.75 | 298 | 42.0% | — | — | 57.25 | $2,863 | 463.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 264 | 39.0% | — | — | 1,027.00 | $20,540 | 1,779.25 | 308 | 40.6% | — | — | 96.50 | $4,825 | 332.25 |
| 1 hour | 199 | 44.2% | 12.02 | 1.251 | 2,392.50 | $47,850 | 1,657.50 | 209 | 49.3% | 1.89 | 1.187 | 394.75 | $19,738 | 474.25 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 94 | 50.0% | — | — | 1,170.50 | $23,410 | 786.50 | 95 | 51.6% | — | — | 273.50 | $13,675 | 212.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 105 | 39.1% | — | — | 1,222.00 | $24,440 | 1,143.50 | 114 | 47.4% | — | — | 121.25 | $6,063 | 326.50 |
| Daily | 22 | 22.7% | −5.81 | 0.989 | −127.75 | −$2,555 | 6,539.50 | 24 | 20.8% | −39.44 | 0.668 | −946.50 | −$47,325 | 1,599.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 11 | 27.3% | — | — | 4,131.25 | $82,625 | 2,594.50 | 12 | 25.0% | — | — | 450.25 | $22,513 | 470.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 11 | 18.2% | — | — | −4,259.00 | −$85,180 | 5,557.50 | 12 | 16.7% | — | — | −1,396.75 | −$69,837 | 1,396.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 822 | 516.75 |
| Short | 821 | 339.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 5 | 73.25 |
| 2024-09 | 63 | 133.75 |
| 2024-10 | 57 | −16.75 |
| 2024-11 | 66 | 56.75 |
| 2024-12 | 67 | 164.75 |
| 2025-01 | 70 | −47.00 |
| 2025-02 | 73 | 159.50 |
| 2025-03 | 64 | 54.75 |
| 2025-04 | 71 | 375.00 |
| 2025-05 | 79 | −367.25 |
| 2025-06 | 66 | 26.25 |
| 2025-07 | 62 | 27.50 |
| 2025-08 | 69 | −27.00 |
| 2025-09 | 68 | −45.75 |
| 2025-10 | 68 | 351.25 |
| 2025-11 | 66 | 130.00 |
| 2025-12 | 69 | −216.25 |
| 2026-01 | 65 | 43.25 |
| 2026-02 | 59 | 76.25 |
| 2026-03 | 93 | −80.75 |
| 2026-04 | 67 | −60.25 |
| 2026-05 | 67 | 0.50 |
| 2026-06 | 69 | −40.50 |
| 2026-07 | 72 | 185.00 |
| 2026-08 | 68 | −99.75 |
Every trade, ES 5 minute1643 trades
Pick any of the 1643 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1643), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | short | 13:15 | 6703.00 | 15:59 | 6676.25 | end of day 15:59 | 26.75 |
| 2026-03-12 | long | 13:05 | 6713.00 | 13:15 | 6703.00 | opposite cross | −10.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | short | 13:00 | 6704.25 | 13:05 | 6713.00 | opposite cross | −8.75 |
| 2026-03-12 | long | 12:20 | 6712.75 | 13:00 | 6704.25 | opposite cross | −8.50 |
| 2026-03-12 | short | 12:10 | 6694.00 | 12:20 | 6712.75 | opposite cross | −18.75 |
| 2026-03-12 | long | 12:05 | 6716.00 | 12:10 | 6694.00 | opposite cross | −22.00 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 15:35 | 6774.50 | 15:59 | 6779.75 | end of day 15:59 | 5.25 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 13:45 | 6762.00 | 15:35 | 6774.50 | opposite cross | −12.50 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 13:00 | 6779.00 | 13:45 | 6762.00 | opposite cross | −17.00 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 11:15 | 6774.75 | 13:00 | 6779.00 | opposite cross | −4.25 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 10:50 | 6793.75 | 11:15 | 6774.75 | opposite cross | −19.00 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 10:35 | 6771.75 | 10:50 | 6793.75 | opposite cross | −22.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 14:15 | 6804.00 | 15:59 | 6788.00 | end of day 15:59 | 16.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | long | 10:35 | 6807.25 | 14:15 | 6804.00 | opposite cross | −3.25 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 09:55 | 6780.50 | 10:35 | 6807.25 | opposite cross | −26.75 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 14:25 | 6719.00 | 15:59 | 6801.75 | end of day 15:59 | 82.75 |
| 2026-03-09 | short | 13:35 | 6705.75 | 14:25 | 6719.00 | opposite cross | −13.25 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 10:45 | 6686.75 | 13:35 | 6705.75 | opposite cross | 19.00 |
| 2026-03-09 | short | 09:45 | 6661.25 | 10:45 | 6686.75 | opposite cross | −25.50 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 15:20 | 6757.25 | 15:59 | 6742.50 | end of day 15:59 | 14.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | long | 14:10 | 6764.25 | 15:20 | 6757.25 | opposite cross | −7.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 14:05 | 6757.50 | 14:10 | 6764.25 | opposite cross | −6.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | long | 13:15 | 6777.50 | 14:05 | 6757.50 | opposite cross | −20.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 12:35 | 6759.75 | 13:15 | 6777.50 | opposite cross | −17.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | long | 10:35 | 6767.50 | 12:35 | 6759.75 | opposite cross | −7.75 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 15:10 | 6803.75 | 15:59 | 6835.00 | end of day 15:59 | 31.25 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 10:25 | 6831.75 | 15:10 | 6803.75 | opposite cross | 28.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 10:00 | 6872.50 | 10:25 | 6831.75 | opposite cross | −40.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | short | 15:20 | 6882.00 | 15:59 | 6873.00 | end of day 15:59 | 9.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | long | 10:15 | 6855.00 | 15:20 | 6882.00 | opposite cross | 27.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | short | 09:45 | 6824.25 | 10:15 | 6855.00 | opposite cross | −30.75 |
| 2026-03-03 | long | 11:15 | 6773.00 | 15:59 | 6825.75 | end of day 15:59 | 52.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | short | 15:20 | 6884.75 | 15:59 | 6887.25 | end of day 15:59 | −2.50 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | 14:15 | 6893.50 | 15:20 | 6884.75 | opposite cross | −8.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | short | 14:00 | 6876.75 | 14:15 | 6893.50 | opposite cross | −16.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | 09:35 | 6836.25 | 14:00 | 6876.75 | opposite cross | 40.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 15:15 | 6877.50 | 15:59 | 6888.25 | end of day 15:59 | 10.75 |
| 2026-02-27 | short | 12:25 | 6865.50 | 15:15 | 6877.50 | opposite cross | −12.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 10:25 | 6872.00 | 12:25 | 6865.50 | opposite cross | −6.50 |
| 2026-02-26 | long | 13:45 | 6903.00 | 15:59 | 6921.50 | end of day 15:59 | 18.50 |
| 2026-02-26 | short | 09:35 | 6950.75 | 13:45 | 6903.00 | opposite cross | 47.75 |
| 2026-02-24 | short | 14:25 | 6897.00 | 15:59 | 6903.25 | end of day 15:59 | −6.25 |
| 2026-02-24 | long | 09:50 | 6877.75 | 14:25 | 6897.00 | opposite cross | 19.25 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | 14:05 | 6847.50 | 15:59 | 6854.00 | end of day 15:59 | −6.50 |
| 2026-02-23 | long | 13:15 | 6860.50 | 14:05 | 6847.50 | opposite cross | −13.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | 10:05 | 6882.25 | 13:15 | 6860.50 | opposite cross | 21.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | long | 13:10 | 6903.50 | 15:59 | 6924.75 | end of day 15:59 | 21.25 |
| 2026-02-20 | short | 12:20 | 6880.75 | 13:10 | 6903.50 | opposite cross | −22.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | long | 09:45 | 6878.25 | 12:20 | 6880.75 | opposite cross | 2.50 |
| 2026-02-19 | long | 15:40 | 6864.50 | 15:59 | 6878.25 | end of day 15:59 | 13.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 285 long trades, won 43.9% of them and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,357.50 points on 849 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,170.50 points on 94 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,131.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 308 short trades, won 40.6% of them and made 96.50 points ($4,825 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 339.75 points on 821 trades on the 5-minute chart, 121.25 points on 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,396.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 9 / 21 cross on ES futures?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy won 41.3% of its 606 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.1% of 1,643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.3% of 209 trades on the 1-hour chart and 20.8% of 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the EMA 9/21 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy made 649.50 points on 1,690 trades on the 5-minute chart, 627.25 points on 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,392.50 points on 199 trades on the 1-hour chart and -127.75 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 9/21 cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -399.75 points on 285 trades (43.9% won) and the short trades made 1,027.00 points on 264 trades (39.0% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,690 on the 5-minute chart, 199 on the 1-hour chart and 22 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,680.00 points ($73,600 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,015.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,657.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,539.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades, won 41.3% of them and made 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and made 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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