Strategy library · Moving averages
EMA 9/21 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 9 / 21 cross
Also called: 9 21 EMA crossover, 9 and 21 EMA strategy, EMA crossover strategy, 9 EMA crosses 21 EMA, buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA, short when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA?
What it is
An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 9-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 285 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.9% and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.3% of them and finished 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when EMA 9 crosses above EMA 21; short when it crosses below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1690 | 34.3% | 0.38 | 1.012 | 649.50 | $12,990 | 5,015.75 | 1643 | 36.1% | 0.52 | 1.080 | 856.50 | $42,825 | 449.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 849 | 36.4% | — | — | 1,357.50 | $27,150 | 3,011.00 | 822 | 38.1% | — | — | 516.75 | $25,838 | 397.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 841 | 32.2% | — | — | −708.00 | −$14,160 | 3,349.50 | 821 | 34.1% | — | — | 339.75 | $16,988 | 357.25 |
| 15 minute | 549 | 41.5% | 1.14 | 1.025 | 627.25 | $12,545 | 3,680.00 | 606 | 41.3% | 0.25 | 1.026 | 153.75 | $7,688 | 666.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 285 | 43.9% | — | — | −399.75 | −$7,995 | 2,631.75 | 298 | 42.0% | — | — | 57.25 | $2,863 | 463.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 264 | 39.0% | — | — | 1,027.00 | $20,540 | 1,779.25 | 308 | 40.6% | — | — | 96.50 | $4,825 | 332.25 |
| 1 hour | 199 | 44.2% | 12.02 | 1.251 | 2,392.50 | $47,850 | 1,657.50 | 209 | 49.3% | 1.89 | 1.187 | 394.75 | $19,738 | 474.25 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 94 | 50.0% | — | — | 1,170.50 | $23,410 | 786.50 | 95 | 51.6% | — | — | 273.50 | $13,675 | 212.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 105 | 39.1% | — | — | 1,222.00 | $24,440 | 1,143.50 | 114 | 47.4% | — | — | 121.25 | $6,063 | 326.50 |
| Daily | 22 | 22.7% | −5.81 | 0.989 | −127.75 | −$2,555 | 6,539.50 | 24 | 20.8% | −39.44 | 0.668 | −946.50 | −$47,325 | 1,599.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 11 | 27.3% | — | — | 4,131.25 | $82,625 | 2,594.50 | 12 | 25.0% | — | — | 450.25 | $22,513 | 470.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 11 | 18.2% | — | — | −4,259.00 | −$85,180 | 5,557.50 | 12 | 16.7% | — | — | −1,396.75 | −$69,837 | 1,396.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ daily: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 11 | 4,131.25 |
| Short | 11 | −4,259.00 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01 | 2 | −1,119.00 |
| 2025-02 | 1 | 1,838.75 |
| 2025-04 | 1 | 5,068.25 |
| 2025-11 | 1 | −269.25 |
| 2025-12 | 3 | −1,993.00 |
| 2026-01 | 4 | −2,602.00 |
| 2026-02 | 1 | 40.00 |
| 2026-04 | 1 | 3,737.50 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | −1,223.25 |
| 2026-07 | 2 | −1,225.00 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | −714.75 |
| 2026-09 | 4 | −1,666.00 |
Every trade, NQ daily22 trades
Daily results show the table and the equity line; there is no chart viewer for them yet.
All trades (22), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | long | 2026-09-21 18:00 | 30780.00 | 2026-10-07 16:59 | 31403.75 | window end | 623.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | short | 2026-09-10 18:00 | 29141.00 | 2026-09-21 18:00 | 30780.00 | opposite cross | −1,344.25 |
| 2026-09-08 | long | 2026-09-07 18:00 | 29611.50 | 2026-09-10 18:00 | 29141.00 | opposite cross | −470.50 |
| 2026-09-02 | short | 2026-09-01 18:00 | 29136.50 | 2026-09-07 18:00 | 29611.50 | opposite cross | −475.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | long | 2026-08-09 18:00 | 29851.25 | 2026-09-01 18:00 | 29136.50 | opposite cross | −714.75 |
| 2026-07-03 | short | 2026-07-02 18:00 | 29566.00 | 2026-08-09 18:00 | 29851.25 | opposite cross | −285.25 |
| 2026-07-01 | long | 2026-06-30 18:00 | 30505.75 | 2026-07-02 18:00 | 29566.00 | opposite cross | −939.75 |
| 2026-06-29 | short | 2026-06-28 18:00 | 29282.50 | 2026-06-30 18:00 | 30505.75 | opposite cross | −1,223.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | long | 2026-04-09 18:00 | 25237.00 | 2026-06-28 18:00 | 29282.50 | opposite cross | 3,737.50 |
| 2026-02-05 | short | 2026-02-04 18:00 | 25061.75 | 2026-04-09 18:00 | 25237.00 | opposite cross | 40.00 |
| 2026-01-28 | long | 2026-01-27 18:00 | 26111.25 | 2026-02-04 18:00 | 25061.75 | opposite cross | −1,049.50 |
| 2026-01-20 | short | 2026-01-19 18:00 | 25394.75 | 2026-01-27 18:00 | 26111.25 | opposite cross | −716.50 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 2026-01-06 18:00 | 25831.25 | 2026-01-19 18:00 | 25394.75 | opposite cross | −436.50 |
| 2026-01-05 | short | 2026-01-04 18:00 | 25431.75 | 2026-01-06 18:00 | 25831.25 | opposite cross | −399.50 |
| 2025-12-26 | long | 2025-12-25 18:00 | 25868.00 | 2026-01-04 18:00 | 25431.75 | opposite cross | −436.25 |
| 2025-12-18 | short | 2025-12-17 18:00 | 24983.50 | 2025-12-25 18:00 | 25868.00 | opposite cross | −884.50 |
| 2025-12-02 | long | 2025-12-01 18:00 | 25411.50 | 2025-12-17 18:00 | 24983.50 | opposite cross | −672.25 |
| 2025-11-17 | short | 2025-11-16 18:00 | 25142.25 | 2025-12-01 18:00 | 25411.50 | opposite cross | −269.25 |
| 2025-04-30 | long | 2025-04-29 18:00 | 19599.75 | 2025-11-16 18:00 | 25142.25 | opposite cross | 5,068.25 |
| 2025-02-26 | short | 2025-02-25 18:00 | 21230.50 | 2025-04-29 18:00 | 19599.75 | opposite cross | 1,838.75 |
| 2025-01-22 | long | 2025-01-21 18:00 | 21809.25 | 2025-02-25 18:00 | 21230.50 | opposite cross | −578.75 |
| 2025-01-02 | short | 2025-01-01 18:00 | 21269.00 | 2025-01-21 18:00 | 21809.25 | opposite cross | −540.25 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 285 long trades, won 43.9% of them and made -399.75 points (-$7,995 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,357.50 points on 849 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,170.50 points on 94 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,131.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 308 short trades, won 40.6% of them and made 96.50 points ($4,825 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 339.75 points on 821 trades on the 5-minute chart, 121.25 points on 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,396.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and finished 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 9 / 21 cross on ES futures?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy won 41.3% of its 606 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.1% of 1,643 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.3% of 209 trades on the 1-hour chart and 20.8% of 24 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the EMA 9/21 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy made 649.50 points on 1,690 trades on the 5-minute chart, 627.25 points on 549 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,392.50 points on 199 trades on the 1-hour chart and -127.75 points on 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 9/21 cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -399.75 points on 285 trades (43.9% won) and the short trades made 1,027.00 points on 264 trades (39.0% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,690 on the 5-minute chart, 199 on the 1-hour chart and 22 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the EMA 9/21 cross strategy on NQ?
The EMA 9/21 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 3,680.00 points ($73,600 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,015.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,657.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 6,539.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the EMA 9/21 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 606 trades, won 41.3% of them and made 153.75 points ($7,688 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 9/21 cross strategy took 549 trades, won 41.5% of them and made 627.25 points ($12,545 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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