Strategy library · Opening and session
First 15-minute candle direction backtest on NQ and ES futures
First 15-minute candle direction
Also called: first 15 minute candle strategy, opening candle direction, 09:30 candle strategy, buy when the 09:30-09:45 candle is green (entering at 09:45), short when the 09:30-09:45 candle is red (entering at 09:45)
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 09:30-09:45 candle is green (entering at 09:45)?
What it is
This strategy looks at the 09:30 to 09:45 ET candle: if it is green it goes long at 09:45, and if it is red it goes short. It exits at 15:59 ET.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades on the session timeframe, won 56.0% of them and finished 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 272 long trades on the session timeframe won 60.7% and made 6,565.00 points ($131,300 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 507 trades on the session timeframe, won 54.4% of them and finished 1,434.75 points ($71,738 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Green 09:30-09:45 candle: long at 09:45. Red: short. Exit: Exit at 15:59.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| Session | 513 | 56.0% | 16.58 | 1.249 | 8,503.75 | $170,075 | 4,606.75 | 507 | 54.4% | 2.83 | 1.194 | 1,434.75 | $71,738 | 924.75 |
| Session · longs only | 272 | 60.7% | — | — | 6,565.00 | $131,300 | 2,728.00 | 253 | 57.7% | — | — | 982.25 | $49,113 | 465.50 |
| Session · shorts only | 241 | 50.6% | — | — | 1,938.75 | $38,775 | 3,490.25 | 254 | 51.2% | — | — | 452.50 | $22,625 | 661.50 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES session: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 253 | 982.25 |
| Short | 254 | 452.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | 58.75 |
| 2024-09 | 20 | −149.75 |
| 2024-10 | 23 | 85.25 |
| 2024-11 | 20 | 29.25 |
| 2024-12 | 21 | 406.25 |
| 2025-01 | 21 | 46.75 |
| 2025-02 | 19 | 339.50 |
| 2025-03 | 21 | 105.75 |
| 2025-04 | 21 | 611.00 |
| 2025-05 | 21 | −75.25 |
| 2025-06 | 21 | 187.50 |
| 2025-07 | 23 | 33.50 |
| 2025-08 | 21 | 182.25 |
| 2025-09 | 21 | −29.50 |
| 2025-10 | 23 | −359.50 |
| 2025-11 | 20 | −175.75 |
| 2025-12 | 22 | 345.25 |
| 2026-01 | 21 | 16.75 |
| 2026-02 | 20 | 400.50 |
| 2026-03 | 21 | −188.00 |
| 2026-04 | 21 | −232.25 |
| 2026-05 | 21 | −30.50 |
| 2026-06 | 21 | −289.25 |
| 2026-07 | 23 | −13.50 |
| 2026-08 | 18 | 129.75 |
Every trade, ES session507 trades
Pick any of the 507 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (507), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | long | 09:45 | 5307.00 | 15:59 | 5390.00 | end of day 15:59 | 83.00 |
| 2025-04-10 | short | 09:45 | 5354.25 | 15:59 | 5299.50 | end of day 15:59 | 54.75 |
| 2025-04-09 | long | 09:45 | 5025.25 | 15:59 | 5489.50 | end of day 15:59 | 464.25 |
| 2025-04-08 | short | 09:45 | 5250.25 | 15:59 | 5017.50 | end of day 15:59 | 232.75 |
| 2025-04-07 | short | 09:45 | 4887.75 | 15:59 | 5098.75 | end of day 15:59 | −211.00 |
| 2025-04-04 | short | 09:45 | 5257.00 | 15:59 | 5108.50 | end of day 15:59 | 148.50 |
| 2025-04-03 | long | 09:45 | 5523.50 | 15:59 | 5436.00 | end of day 15:59 | −87.50 |
| 2025-04-02 | long | 09:45 | 5651.75 | 15:59 | 5710.00 | end of day 15:59 | 58.25 |
| 2025-04-01 | short | 09:45 | 5633.00 | 15:59 | 5674.75 | end of day 15:59 | −41.75 |
| 2025-03-31 | short | 09:45 | 5539.25 | 15:59 | 5656.25 | end of day 15:59 | −117.00 |
| 2025-03-28 | short | 09:45 | 5718.50 | 15:59 | 5624.50 | end of day 15:59 | 94.00 |
| 2025-03-27 | short | 09:45 | 5726.25 | 15:59 | 5740.50 | end of day 15:59 | −14.25 |
| 2025-03-26 | long | 09:45 | 5830.50 | 15:59 | 5758.25 | end of day 15:59 | −72.25 |
| 2025-03-25 | short | 09:45 | 5820.50 | 15:59 | 5826.00 | end of day 15:59 | −5.50 |
| 2025-03-24 | long | 09:45 | 5794.00 | 15:59 | 5813.50 | end of day 15:59 | 19.50 |
| 2025-03-21 | long | 09:45 | 5668.75 | 15:59 | 5714.50 | end of day 15:59 | 45.75 |
| 2025-03-20 | long | 09:45 | 5710.00 | 15:59 | 5714.50 | end of day 15:59 | 4.50 |
| 2025-03-19 | short | 09:45 | 5678.75 | 15:59 | 5730.75 | end of day 15:59 | −52.00 |
| 2025-03-18 | short | 09:45 | 5678.00 | 15:59 | 5672.00 | end of day 15:59 | 6.00 |
| 2025-03-17 | long | 09:45 | 5668.50 | 15:59 | 5680.50 | end of day 15:59 | 12.00 |
| 2025-03-14 | long | 09:45 | 5593.00 | 15:59 | 5637.50 | end of day 15:59 | 44.50 |
| 2025-03-13 | short | 09:45 | 5583.75 | 15:59 | 5528.25 | end of day 15:59 | 55.50 |
| 2025-03-12 | short | 09:45 | 5620.00 | 15:59 | 5602.75 | end of day 15:59 | 17.25 |
| 2025-03-11 | long | 09:45 | 5621.75 | 15:59 | 5575.75 | end of day 15:59 | −46.00 |
| 2025-03-10 | long | 09:45 | 5707.50 | 15:59 | 5623.50 | end of day 15:59 | −84.00 |
| 2025-03-07 | long | 09:45 | 5755.25 | 15:59 | 5775.00 | end of day 15:59 | 19.75 |
| 2025-03-06 | short | 09:45 | 5755.25 | 15:59 | 5747.75 | end of day 15:59 | 7.50 |
| 2025-03-05 | long | 09:45 | 5805.50 | 15:59 | 5850.75 | end of day 15:59 | 45.25 |
| 2025-03-04 | short | 09:45 | 5806.75 | 15:59 | 5790.75 | end of day 15:59 | 16.00 |
| 2025-03-03 | short | 09:45 | 5972.00 | 15:59 | 5862.75 | end of day 15:59 | 109.25 |
| 2025-02-28 | long | 09:45 | 5883.25 | 15:59 | 5964.00 | end of day 15:59 | 80.75 |
| 2025-02-27 | short | 09:45 | 5981.50 | 15:59 | 5877.50 | end of day 15:59 | 104.00 |
| 2025-02-26 | short | 09:45 | 5986.50 | 15:59 | 5972.00 | end of day 15:59 | 14.50 |
| 2025-02-25 | short | 09:45 | 5993.00 | 15:59 | 5970.50 | end of day 15:59 | 22.50 |
| 2025-02-24 | short | 09:45 | 6040.00 | 15:59 | 6002.25 | end of day 15:59 | 37.75 |
| 2025-02-21 | short | 09:45 | 6122.25 | 15:59 | 6030.25 | end of day 15:59 | 92.00 |
| 2025-02-20 | short | 09:45 | 6138.25 | 15:59 | 6137.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.00 |
| 2025-02-18 | short | 09:45 | 6136.50 | 15:59 | 6148.00 | end of day 15:59 | −11.50 |
| 2025-02-17 | short | 09:45 | 6137.50 | 12:59 | 6146.00 | early close | −8.50 |
| 2025-02-14 | long | 09:45 | 6139.00 | 15:59 | 6131.75 | end of day 15:59 | −7.25 |
| 2025-02-13 | short | 09:45 | 6082.75 | 15:59 | 6135.25 | end of day 15:59 | −52.50 |
| 2025-02-12 | long | 09:45 | 6044.50 | 15:59 | 6072.75 | end of day 15:59 | 28.25 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 09:45 | 6074.00 | 15:59 | 6092.50 | end of day 15:59 | 18.50 |
| 2025-02-10 | short | 09:45 | 6071.50 | 15:59 | 6088.25 | end of day 15:59 | −16.75 |
| 2025-02-07 | long | 09:45 | 6117.25 | 15:59 | 6049.25 | end of day 15:59 | −68.00 |
| 2025-02-06 | short | 09:45 | 6100.50 | 15:59 | 6107.00 | end of day 15:59 | −6.50 |
| 2025-02-05 | long | 09:45 | 6053.25 | 15:59 | 6086.00 | end of day 15:59 | 32.75 |
| 2025-02-04 | long | 09:45 | 6027.50 | 15:59 | 6062.50 | end of day 15:59 | 35.00 |
| 2025-02-03 | long | 09:45 | 5979.50 | 15:59 | 6023.00 | end of day 15:59 | 43.50 |
| 2025-01-31 | long | 09:45 | 6125.50 | 15:59 | 6064.75 | end of day 15:59 | −60.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 09:30-09:45 candle is green (entering at 09:45)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 272 long trades, won 60.7% of them and made 6,565.00 points ($131,300 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 09:30-09:45 candle is red (entering at 09:45)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 254 short trades, won 51.2% of them and made 452.50 points ($22,625 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
Does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on the session timeframe took 513 trades, won 56.0% of them and finished 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of First 15-minute candle direction on ES futures?
The first 15-minute candle direction strategy won 54.4% of its 507 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell first 15-minute candle direction signals on NQ?
On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 6,565.00 points on 272 trades (60.7% won) and the short trades made 1,938.75 points on 241 trades (50.6% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy take on NQ in two years?
The first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the first 15-minute candle direction strategy on NQ?
The first 15-minute candle direction strategy had a max drawdown of 4,606.75 points ($92,135 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
How does the first 15-minute candle direction strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 507 trades, won 54.4% of them and made 1,434.75 points ($71,738 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the first 15-minute candle direction strategy took 513 trades, won 56.0% of them and made 8,503.75 points ($170,075 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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