Strategy library · Momentum oscillators
Fisher Transform cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
Fisher Transform (9) cross
Also called: Fisher Transform 9 strategy, Fisher indicator crossover, Ehlers Fisher Transform, buy when the Fisher Transform crosses above its trigger line, short when the Fisher Transform crosses below its trigger line
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Fisher Transform crosses above its trigger line?
What it is
The Fisher Transform (9 periods) converts price into a roughly normal distribution so turning points stand out, and its trigger line is the prior value. This strategy goes long when the Fisher crosses above its trigger, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 1,258 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.6% and made -862.25 points (-$17,245 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,479 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.2% of them and finished 780.50 points ($39,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Fisher Transform cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when Fisher crosses above its trigger; short below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 7273 | 38.2% | −0.66 | 0.964 | −4,807.75 | −$96,155 | 9,970.25 | 7305 | 38.2% | −0.02 | 0.996 | −117.75 | −$5,887 | 1,476.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 3633 | 40.6% | — | — | 23.25 | $465 | 3,335.50 | 3639 | 40.5% | — | — | 424.00 | $21,200 | 561.00 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 3640 | 35.8% | — | — | −4,831.00 | −$96,620 | 7,254.00 | 3666 | 36.0% | — | — | −541.75 | −$27,087 | 1,321.75 |
| 15 minute | 2525 | 40.7% | −0.70 | 0.976 | −1,768.75 | −$35,375 | 4,832.00 | 2479 | 41.2% | 0.31 | 1.055 | 780.50 | $39,025 | 574.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 1258 | 42.6% | — | — | −862.25 | −$17,245 | 2,850.50 | 1233 | 42.3% | — | — | 367.25 | $18,363 | 380.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 1267 | 38.8% | — | — | −906.50 | −$18,130 | 3,077.50 | 1246 | 40.0% | — | — | 413.25 | $20,663 | 563.50 |
| 1 hour | 594 | 45.8% | 0.23 | 1.005 | 135.50 | $2,710 | 4,029.00 | 636 | 43.6% | 0.09 | 1.010 | 59.50 | $2,975 | 681.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 308 | 50.0% | — | — | 1,019.75 | $20,395 | 1,922.25 | 311 | 46.0% | — | — | −52.50 | −$2,625 | 393.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 286 | 41.3% | — | — | −884.25 | −$17,685 | 2,518.75 | 325 | 41.2% | — | — | 112.00 | $5,600 | 428.00 |
| Daily | 101 | 30.7% | −68.17 | 0.738 | −6,884.75 | −$137,695 | 8,122.50 | 88 | 38.6% | −3.94 | 0.916 | −347.00 | −$17,350 | 1,147.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 51 | 39.2% | — | — | 1,012.50 | $20,250 | 3,039.50 | 44 | 47.7% | — | — | 622.50 | $31,125 | 465.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 50 | 22.0% | — | — | −7,897.25 | −$157,945 | 8,419.25 | 44 | 29.6% | — | — | −969.50 | −$48,475 | 1,452.00 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 1233 | 367.25 |
| Short | 1246 | 413.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 18 | −8.50 |
| 2024-09 | 97 | 289.00 |
| 2024-10 | 100 | −12.50 |
| 2024-11 | 94 | −45.00 |
| 2024-12 | 98 | 156.00 |
| 2025-01 | 102 | −89.00 |
| 2025-02 | 73 | 259.75 |
| 2025-03 | 113 | 5.25 |
| 2025-04 | 108 | −107.25 |
| 2025-05 | 108 | −150.25 |
| 2025-06 | 109 | 58.00 |
| 2025-07 | 105 | 16.75 |
| 2025-08 | 113 | −92.25 |
| 2025-09 | 109 | −49.25 |
| 2025-10 | 117 | 196.50 |
| 2025-11 | 94 | 114.50 |
| 2025-12 | 99 | −212.00 |
| 2026-01 | 99 | 98.00 |
| 2026-02 | 106 | −99.75 |
| 2026-03 | 116 | 131.25 |
| 2026-04 | 97 | 140.00 |
| 2026-05 | 103 | 55.00 |
| 2026-06 | 105 | −131.00 |
| 2026-07 | 105 | 203.75 |
| 2026-08 | 91 | 53.50 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute2479 trades
Pick any of the 2479 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (2479), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | long | 10:15 | 6614.00 | 12:30 | 6640.00 | opposite cross | 26.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | long | 14:15 | 6542.50 | 15:59 | 6569.00 | end of day 15:59 | 26.50 |
| 2026-03-31 | short | 14:00 | 6532.00 | 14:15 | 6542.50 | opposite cross | −10.50 |
| 2026-03-31 | long | 12:30 | 6489.00 | 14:00 | 6532.00 | opposite cross | 43.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | short | 10:45 | 6470.00 | 12:30 | 6489.00 | opposite cross | −19.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | long | 09:45 | 6460.25 | 10:45 | 6470.00 | opposite cross | 9.75 |
| 2026-03-30 | long | 15:45 | 6374.25 | 15:59 | 6387.75 | end of day 15:59 | 13.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | short | 12:30 | 6419.75 | 15:45 | 6374.25 | opposite cross | 45.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | long | 11:15 | 6432.25 | 12:30 | 6419.75 | opposite cross | −12.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | short | 09:45 | 6438.75 | 11:15 | 6432.25 | opposite cross | 6.50 |
| 2026-03-27 | short | 15:00 | 6421.50 | 15:59 | 6407.25 | end of day 15:59 | 14.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | long | 14:45 | 6427.75 | 15:00 | 6421.50 | opposite cross | −6.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | short | 12:30 | 6457.25 | 14:45 | 6427.75 | opposite cross | 29.50 |
| 2026-03-27 | long | 11:00 | 6470.50 | 12:30 | 6457.25 | opposite cross | −13.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | short | 10:45 | 6459.50 | 11:00 | 6470.50 | opposite cross | −11.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | long | 10:30 | 6459.50 | 10:45 | 6459.50 | opposite cross | 0.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | short | 09:45 | 6479.50 | 10:30 | 6459.50 | opposite cross | 20.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | short | 15:30 | 6534.00 | 15:59 | 6523.00 | end of day 15:59 | 11.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | long | 14:45 | 6543.25 | 15:30 | 6534.00 | opposite cross | −9.25 |
| 2026-03-26 | short | 11:00 | 6594.75 | 14:45 | 6543.25 | opposite cross | 51.50 |
| 2026-03-25 | short | 14:30 | 6650.25 | 15:59 | 6642.00 | end of day 15:59 | 8.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | long | 12:30 | 6649.50 | 14:30 | 6650.25 | opposite cross | 0.75 |
| 2026-03-25 | short | 11:30 | 6653.25 | 12:30 | 6649.50 | opposite cross | 3.75 |
| 2026-03-25 | long | 10:45 | 6659.50 | 11:30 | 6653.25 | opposite cross | −6.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | short | 10:00 | 6639.50 | 10:45 | 6659.50 | opposite cross | −20.00 |
| 2026-03-25 | long | 09:45 | 6664.50 | 10:00 | 6639.50 | opposite cross | −25.00 |
| 2026-03-24 | short | 15:45 | 6613.25 | 15:59 | 6607.00 | end of day 15:59 | 6.25 |
| 2026-03-24 | long | 14:15 | 6613.75 | 15:45 | 6613.25 | opposite cross | −0.50 |
| 2026-03-24 | short | 12:15 | 6625.00 | 14:15 | 6613.75 | opposite cross | 11.25 |
| 2026-03-24 | long | 10:15 | 6601.25 | 12:15 | 6625.00 | opposite cross | 23.75 |
| 2026-03-23 | short | 15:30 | 6650.50 | 15:59 | 6631.50 | end of day 15:59 | 19.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | long | 13:45 | 6645.00 | 15:30 | 6650.50 | opposite cross | 5.50 |
| 2026-03-23 | short | 11:45 | 6669.75 | 13:45 | 6645.00 | opposite cross | 24.75 |
| 2026-03-23 | long | 10:30 | 6688.25 | 11:45 | 6669.75 | opposite cross | −18.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | short | 13:15 | 6599.25 | 15:59 | 6562.75 | end of day 15:59 | 36.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | long | 12:00 | 6605.75 | 13:15 | 6599.25 | opposite cross | −6.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | short | 09:45 | 6638.75 | 12:00 | 6605.75 | opposite cross | 33.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | long | 14:00 | 6633.25 | 15:59 | 6658.75 | end of day 15:59 | 25.50 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | 13:00 | 6632.25 | 14:00 | 6633.25 | opposite cross | −1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | long | 12:45 | 6643.00 | 13:00 | 6632.25 | opposite cross | −10.75 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | 12:30 | 6640.50 | 12:45 | 6643.00 | opposite cross | −2.50 |
| 2026-03-19 | long | 12:15 | 6639.25 | 12:30 | 6640.50 | opposite cross | 1.25 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | 11:45 | 6625.50 | 12:15 | 6639.25 | opposite cross | −13.75 |
| 2026-03-19 | long | 10:00 | 6646.75 | 11:45 | 6625.50 | opposite cross | −21.25 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | 09:45 | 6633.75 | 10:00 | 6646.75 | opposite cross | −13.00 |
| 2026-03-18 | short | 14:45 | 6711.75 | 15:59 | 6677.25 | end of day 15:59 | 34.50 |
| 2026-03-18 | long | 14:00 | 6730.50 | 14:45 | 6711.75 | opposite cross | −18.75 |
| 2026-03-18 | short | 13:00 | 6727.75 | 14:00 | 6730.50 | opposite cross | −2.75 |
| 2026-03-18 | long | 11:15 | 6738.00 | 13:00 | 6727.75 | opposite cross | −10.25 |
| 2026-03-18 | short | 10:30 | 6721.75 | 11:15 | 6738.00 | opposite cross | −16.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Fisher Transform crosses above its trigger line?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 1,258 long trades, won 42.6% of them and made -862.25 points (-$17,245 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 23.25 points on 3,633 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,019.75 points on 308 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,012.50 points on 51 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the Fisher Transform crosses below its trigger line?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 1,246 short trades, won 40.0% of them and made 413.25 points ($20,663 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -541.75 points on 3,666 trades on the 5-minute chart, 112.00 points on 325 trades on the 1-hour chart and -969.50 points on 44 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Fisher Transform cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 2,525 trades, won 40.7% of them and finished -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Fisher Transform (9) cross on ES futures?
The Fisher Transform cross strategy won 41.2% of its 2,479 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.2% of 7,305 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.6% of 636 trades on the 1-hour chart and 38.6% of 88 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Fisher Transform cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy made -4,807.75 points on 7,273 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,768.75 points on 2,525 trades on the 15-minute chart, 135.50 points on 594 trades on the 1-hour chart and -6,884.75 points on 101 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Fisher Transform cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -862.25 points on 1,258 trades (42.6% won) and the short trades made -906.50 points on 1,267 trades (38.8% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Fisher Transform cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 7,273 on the 5-minute chart, 594 on the 1-hour chart and 101 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Fisher Transform cross strategy on NQ?
The Fisher Transform cross strategy had a max drawdown of 4,832.00 points ($96,640 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 9,970.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 4,029.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 8,122.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Fisher Transform cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,479 trades, won 41.2% of them and made 780.50 points ($39,025 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Fisher Transform cross strategy took 2,525 trades, won 40.7% of them and made -1,768.75 points (-$35,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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