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Full Ichimoku signal backtest on NQ and ES futures
Full Ichimoku signal
Also called: Ichimoku strategy, Ichimoku full signal, Ichimoku all conditions, buy when the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun above the cloud with the lagging span above the price from 26 bars ago, short when the Tenkan crosses below the Kijun below the cloud with the lagging span below the price from 26 bars ago
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun above the cloud with the lagging span above the price from 26 bars ago?
What it is
This strategy goes long on a Tenkan/Kijun cross above the cloud with the lagging span above price 26 bars ago (short on the mirror). It exits on the opposite Tenkan/Kijun cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.8% of them and finished 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 110 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 57.3% and made 968.75 points ($19,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 204 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished -116.00 points (-$5,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the full Ichimoku signal strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Tenkan / Kijun cross above the cloud with the lagging span above price 26 bars ago; short on the mirror. Exit: Opposite Tenkan / Kijun cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 462 | 42.9% | 7.49 | 1.229 | 3,462.00 | $69,240 | 1,636.25 | 423 | 43.5% | 0.58 | 1.087 | 245.75 | $12,288 | 353.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 245 | 47.8% | — | — | 3,315.50 | $66,310 | 1,236.25 | 218 | 46.8% | — | — | 191.75 | $9,588 | 181.00 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 217 | 37.3% | — | — | 146.50 | $2,930 | 1,143.50 | 205 | 40.0% | — | — | 54.00 | $2,700 | 300.75 |
| 15 minute | 209 | 48.8% | 5.69 | 1.136 | 1,190.00 | $23,800 | 1,176.50 | 204 | 46.1% | −0.57 | 0.939 | −116.00 | −$5,800 | 275.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 110 | 57.3% | — | — | 968.75 | $19,375 | 601.00 | 108 | 50.9% | — | — | −165.50 | −$8,275 | 199.75 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 99 | 39.4% | — | — | 221.25 | $4,425 | 1,717.50 | 96 | 40.6% | — | — | 49.50 | $2,475 | 264.75 |
| 1 hour | 32 | 68.8% | 41.53 | 3.515 | 1,329.00 | $26,580 | 152.50 | 39 | 59.0% | 6.58 | 1.834 | 256.75 | $12,838 | 122.00 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 26 | 73.1% | — | — | 898.00 | $17,960 | 152.50 | 22 | 68.2% | — | — | 102.25 | $5,113 | 51.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 6 | 50.0% | — | — | 431.00 | $8,620 | 112.50 | 17 | 47.1% | — | — | 154.50 | $7,725 | 71.00 |
| Daily | 9 | 44.4% | 137.97 | 1.584 | 1,241.75 | $24,835 | 1,739.75 | 7 | 28.6% | 21.64 | 1.403 | 151.50 | $7,575 | 248.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 7 | 42.9% | — | — | −155.25 | −$3,105 | 1,228.25 | 6 | 16.7% | — | — | −187.75 | −$9,387 | 248.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 2 | 50.0% | — | — | 1,397.00 | $27,940 | 511.50 | 1 | 100.0% | — | — | 339.25 | $16,963 | 0.00 |
NQ Daily: small sample (9 trades). ES Daily: small sample (7 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 108 | −165.50 |
| Short | 96 | 49.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-09 | 11 | −160.25 |
| 2024-10 | 8 | 40.00 |
| 2024-11 | 6 | −15.00 |
| 2024-12 | 7 | 125.50 |
| 2025-01 | 7 | 41.75 |
| 2025-02 | 10 | −15.00 |
| 2025-03 | 3 | −41.25 |
| 2025-04 | 7 | 58.75 |
| 2025-05 | 4 | −31.50 |
| 2025-06 | 11 | −64.75 |
| 2025-07 | 10 | −35.75 |
| 2025-08 | 11 | 44.75 |
| 2025-09 | 12 | 40.25 |
| 2025-10 | 8 | 76.75 |
| 2025-11 | 7 | 18.50 |
| 2025-12 | 12 | 54.75 |
| 2026-01 | 7 | −40.00 |
| 2026-02 | 11 | −59.00 |
| 2026-03 | 8 | 21.00 |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 86.75 |
| 2026-05 | 8 | −63.25 |
| 2026-06 | 11 | −96.75 |
| 2026-07 | 10 | −105.50 |
| 2026-08 | 8 | 3.25 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute204 trades
Pick any of the 204 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (204), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | long | 11:15 | 7694.75 | 12:30 | 7679.75 | opposite cross | −15.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | short | 10:00 | 7668.75 | 12:15 | 7680.75 | opposite cross | −12.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | long | 12:15 | 7697.50 | 14:45 | 7689.00 | opposite cross | −8.50 |
| 2026-08-18 | short | 10:45 | 7724.25 | 15:59 | 7715.25 | end of day 15:59 | 9.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | short | 11:00 | 7809.75 | 15:59 | 7805.50 | end of day 15:59 | 4.25 |
| 2026-08-07 | long | 12:30 | 7764.75 | 15:59 | 7778.25 | end of day 15:59 | 13.50 |
| 2026-08-06 | short | 12:45 | 7730.25 | 15:59 | 7735.25 | end of day 15:59 | −5.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | long | 12:00 | 7611.50 | 15:59 | 7628.50 | end of day 15:59 | 17.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | long | 12:15 | 7474.00 | 15:59 | 7466.00 | end of day 15:59 | −8.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | long | 12:30 | 7491.25 | 14:45 | 7437.50 | opposite cross | −53.75 |
| 2026-07-21 | long | 12:15 | 7545.50 | 15:59 | 7545.75 | end of day 15:59 | 0.25 |
| 2026-07-16 | short | 14:00 | 7582.25 | 15:59 | 7577.00 | end of day 15:59 | 5.25 |
| 2026-07-15 | long | 10:45 | 7605.00 | 12:00 | 7596.25 | opposite cross | −8.75 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 13:00 | 7612.50 | 15:59 | 7620.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.25 |
| 2026-07-07 | short | 15:15 | 7545.00 | 15:59 | 7553.00 | end of day 15:59 | −8.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | short | 12:00 | 7551.00 | 14:15 | 7567.25 | opposite cross | −16.25 |
| 2026-07-06 | long | 11:45 | 7587.50 | 15:59 | 7593.50 | end of day 15:59 | 6.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | long | 12:00 | 7572.50 | 15:59 | 7542.00 | end of day 15:59 | −30.50 |
| 2026-06-30 | long | 11:00 | 7520.50 | 15:59 | 7544.75 | end of day 15:59 | 24.25 |
| 2026-06-26 | long | 12:00 | 7447.75 | 15:59 | 7380.25 | end of day 15:59 | −67.50 |
| 2026-06-25 | short | 13:00 | 7420.25 | 15:59 | 7428.50 | end of day 15:59 | −8.25 |
| 2026-06-25 | short | 11:00 | 7449.25 | 12:30 | 7437.75 | opposite cross | 11.50 |
| 2026-06-24 | long | 12:45 | 7459.50 | 14:00 | 7414.25 | opposite cross | −45.25 |
| 2026-06-18 | long | 13:15 | 7573.25 | 15:59 | 7564.25 | end of day 15:59 | −9.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | short | 12:45 | 7585.00 | 15:59 | 7492.25 | end of day 15:59 | 92.75 |
| 2026-06-16 | short | 12:00 | 7609.75 | 15:59 | 7588.00 | end of day 15:59 | 21.75 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 12:15 | 7307.00 | 15:59 | 7392.00 | end of day 15:59 | −85.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | 11:30 | 7626.75 | 15:59 | 7623.50 | end of day 15:59 | −3.25 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 10:00 | 7585.25 | 13:30 | 7614.00 | opposite cross | −28.75 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 13:15 | 7597.75 | 15:00 | 7585.25 | opposite cross | −12.50 |
| 2026-05-26 | short | 13:00 | 7523.50 | 15:59 | 7539.25 | end of day 15:59 | −15.75 |
| 2026-05-20 | long | 12:30 | 7428.25 | 15:59 | 7451.50 | end of day 15:59 | 23.25 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | 11:30 | 7368.25 | 15:30 | 7416.00 | opposite cross | −47.75 |
| 2026-05-11 | long | 11:15 | 7437.50 | 15:59 | 7438.75 | end of day 15:59 | 1.25 |
| 2026-05-08 | long | 11:30 | 7416.00 | 15:59 | 7421.00 | end of day 15:59 | 5.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | short | 13:30 | 7354.50 | 15:59 | 7364.25 | end of day 15:59 | −9.75 |
| 2026-05-04 | short | 13:15 | 7224.00 | 15:59 | 7231.00 | end of day 15:59 | −7.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | long | 12:45 | 7201.25 | 15:59 | 7238.25 | end of day 15:59 | 37.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | long | 13:45 | 7203.00 | 15:59 | 7207.25 | end of day 15:59 | 4.25 |
| 2026-04-24 | long | 11:45 | 7190.00 | 15:59 | 7194.75 | end of day 15:59 | 4.75 |
| 2026-04-23 | short | 14:00 | 7123.25 | 15:59 | 7141.75 | end of day 15:59 | −18.50 |
| 2026-04-20 | long | 15:30 | 7140.50 | 15:59 | 7148.25 | end of day 15:59 | 7.75 |
| 2026-04-13 | long | 10:30 | 6857.25 | 15:59 | 6921.25 | end of day 15:59 | 64.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | long | 11:30 | 6632.00 | 15:59 | 6619.50 | end of day 15:59 | −12.50 |
| 2026-03-26 | short | 13:00 | 6568.50 | 15:59 | 6523.00 | end of day 15:59 | 45.50 |
| 2026-03-25 | short | 15:00 | 6639.75 | 15:59 | 6642.00 | end of day 15:59 | −2.25 |
| 2026-03-17 | long | 14:15 | 6783.00 | 14:45 | 6772.50 | opposite cross | −10.50 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 15:15 | 6711.75 | 15:59 | 6703.00 | end of day 15:59 | −8.75 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 12:30 | 6763.50 | 15:59 | 6779.75 | end of day 15:59 | −16.25 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 12:30 | 6727.00 | 15:59 | 6801.75 | end of day 15:59 | 74.75 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun above the cloud with the lagging span above the price from 26 bars ago?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 110 long trades, won 57.3% of them and made 968.75 points ($19,375 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,315.50 points on 245 trades on the 5-minute chart, 898.00 points on 26 trades on the 1-hour chart and -155.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the Tenkan crosses below the Kijun below the cloud with the lagging span below the price from 26 bars ago?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 96 short trades, won 40.6% of them and made 49.50 points ($2,475 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 54.00 points on 205 trades on the 5-minute chart, 154.50 points on 17 trades on the 1-hour chart and 339.25 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the full Ichimoku signal strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy on the 15-minute chart took 209 trades, won 48.8% of them and finished 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Full Ichimoku signal on ES futures?
The full Ichimoku signal strategy won 46.1% of its 204 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 43.5% of 423 trades on the 5-minute chart, 59.0% of 39 trades on the 1-hour chart and 28.6% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the full Ichimoku signal strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy made 3,462.00 points on 462 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,190.00 points on 209 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,329.00 points on 32 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,241.75 points on 9 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell full Ichimoku signal signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 968.75 points on 110 trades (57.3% won) and the short trades made 221.25 points on 99 trades (39.4% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the full Ichimoku signal strategy take on NQ in two years?
The full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 462 on the 5-minute chart, 32 on the 1-hour chart and 9 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the full Ichimoku signal strategy on NQ?
The full Ichimoku signal strategy had a max drawdown of 1,176.50 points ($23,530 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,636.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 152.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 1,739.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the full Ichimoku signal strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 204 trades, won 46.1% of them and made -116.00 points (-$5,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the full Ichimoku signal strategy took 209 trades, won 48.8% of them and made 1,190.00 points ($23,800 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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