Strategy library · Moving averages
Hull moving average turn backtest on NQ and ES futures
Hull MA 20 turn
Also called: HMA 20 strategy, Hull MA strategy, Hull moving average 20, buy when the 20-period Hull moving average turns up, short when the 20-period Hull moving average turns down
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20-period Hull moving average turns up?
What it is
The Hull moving average (HMA 20) is a fast-reacting moving average built from weighted averages. This strategy goes long when the HMA 20 turns up (rises after falling), short when it turns down, and exits on the opposite turn.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.9% of them and finished -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 698 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.1% and made -1,243.25 points (-$24,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,378 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.1% of them and finished -622.75 points (-$31,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Hull moving average turn strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when HMA 20 turns up (rises after falling); short when it turns down. Exit: Opposite turn.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 4282 | 36.5% | −1.40 | 0.942 | −5,981.75 | −$119,635 | 8,439.00 | 4121 | 38.0% | 0.18 | 1.039 | 747.50 | $37,375 | 1,183.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 2136 | 39.0% | — | — | −569.00 | −$11,380 | 2,915.00 | 2050 | 39.9% | — | — | 517.00 | $25,850 | 520.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 2146 | 34.1% | — | — | −5,412.75 | −$108,255 | 6,972.00 | 2071 | 36.1% | — | — | 230.50 | $11,525 | 788.75 |
| 15 minute | 1410 | 39.9% | −2.35 | 0.936 | −3,317.50 | −$66,350 | 5,357.75 | 1378 | 40.1% | −0.45 | 0.942 | −622.75 | −$31,137 | 969.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 698 | 42.1% | — | — | −1,243.25 | −$24,865 | 2,787.75 | 684 | 43.1% | — | — | −88.50 | −$4,425 | 460.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 712 | 37.8% | — | — | −2,074.25 | −$41,485 | 3,030.00 | 694 | 37.0% | — | — | −534.25 | −$26,712 | 771.25 |
| 1 hour | 344 | 47.7% | 3.04 | 1.061 | 1,046.75 | $20,935 | 2,491.75 | 367 | 50.4% | 1.35 | 1.130 | 493.75 | $24,688 | 408.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 175 | 49.7% | — | — | −506.00 | −$10,120 | 2,426.50 | 172 | 51.2% | — | — | −122.00 | −$6,100 | 379.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 169 | 45.6% | — | — | 1,552.75 | $31,055 | 1,600.00 | 195 | 49.7% | — | — | 615.75 | $30,788 | 249.50 |
| Daily | 57 | 26.3% | −87.37 | 0.746 | −4,980.25 | −$99,605 | 7,095.25 | 61 | 29.5% | −19.35 | 0.683 | −1,180.50 | −$59,025 | 1,647.50 |
| Daily · longs only | 29 | 27.6% | — | — | 1,964.75 | $39,295 | 2,719.50 | 30 | 40.0% | — | — | 229.00 | $11,450 | 535.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 28 | 25.0% | — | — | −6,945.00 | −$138,900 | 7,160.75 | 31 | 19.4% | — | — | −1,409.50 | −$70,475 | 1,603.00 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 698 | −1,243.25 |
| Short | 712 | −2,074.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 44 | −185.75 |
| 2024-11 | 55 | −183.75 |
| 2024-12 | 53 | 668.00 |
| 2025-01 | 58 | −302.50 |
| 2025-02 | 58 | −569.00 |
| 2025-03 | 54 | −987.75 |
| 2025-04 | 52 | 791.75 |
| 2025-05 | 55 | −666.75 |
| 2025-06 | 51 | −642.00 |
| 2025-07 | 63 | −67.75 |
| 2025-08 | 56 | −130.75 |
| 2025-09 | 61 | −110.50 |
| 2025-10 | 73 | −241.50 |
| 2025-11 | 51 | 1,133.25 |
| 2025-12 | 77 | −910.75 |
| 2026-01 | 55 | 396.00 |
| 2026-02 | 53 | 106.75 |
| 2026-03 | 73 | −773.00 |
| 2026-04 | 56 | −508.75 |
| 2026-05 | 53 | 910.00 |
| 2026-06 | 59 | 99.75 |
| 2026-07 | 57 | 456.25 |
| 2026-08 | 70 | −2,043.75 |
| 2026-09 | 61 | 218.50 |
| 2026-10 | 12 | 226.50 |
Every trade, NQ 15 minute1410 trades
Pick any of the 1410 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1410), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | long | 14:15 | 24874.25 | 14:45 | 24813.00 | opposite turn | −61.25 |
| 2026-03-18 | short | 13:00 | 24844.25 | 14:15 | 24874.25 | opposite turn | −30.00 |
| 2026-03-18 | long | 11:30 | 24888.00 | 13:00 | 24844.25 | opposite turn | −43.75 |
| 2026-03-17 | short | 15:00 | 25003.50 | 15:59 | 25010.25 | end of day 15:59 | −6.75 |
| 2026-03-17 | long | 14:00 | 25034.25 | 15:00 | 25003.50 | opposite turn | −30.75 |
| 2026-03-17 | short | 11:30 | 25009.00 | 14:00 | 25034.25 | opposite turn | −25.25 |
| 2026-03-16 | short | 15:45 | 24657.25 | 15:59 | 24670.25 | end of day 15:59 | −13.00 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 14:15 | 24706.50 | 15:45 | 24657.25 | opposite turn | −49.25 |
| 2026-03-16 | short | 14:00 | 24682.50 | 14:15 | 24706.50 | opposite turn | −24.00 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 13:30 | 24697.00 | 14:00 | 24682.50 | opposite turn | −14.50 |
| 2026-03-16 | short | 12:00 | 24675.00 | 13:30 | 24697.00 | opposite turn | −22.00 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 11:30 | 24715.75 | 12:00 | 24675.00 | opposite turn | −40.75 |
| 2026-03-16 | short | 10:45 | 24644.75 | 11:30 | 24715.75 | opposite turn | −71.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | short | 15:45 | 24367.25 | 15:59 | 24398.00 | end of day 15:59 | −30.75 |
| 2026-03-13 | long | 13:30 | 24448.75 | 15:45 | 24367.25 | opposite turn | −81.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | short | 10:45 | 24596.75 | 13:30 | 24448.75 | opposite turn | 148.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | long | 09:45 | 24769.50 | 10:45 | 24596.75 | opposite turn | −172.75 |
| 2026-03-12 | short | 14:15 | 24657.50 | 15:59 | 24555.25 | end of day 15:59 | 102.25 |
| 2026-03-12 | long | 12:15 | 24654.00 | 14:15 | 24657.50 | opposite turn | 3.50 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 14:15 | 24913.50 | 15:59 | 24984.00 | end of day 15:59 | −70.50 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 13:15 | 24994.25 | 14:15 | 24913.50 | opposite turn | −80.75 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 11:15 | 24994.00 | 13:15 | 24994.25 | opposite turn | −0.25 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 13:45 | 25135.75 | 15:59 | 24986.50 | end of day 15:59 | 149.25 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 15:30 | 24952.00 | 15:59 | 24992.25 | end of day 15:59 | 40.25 |
| 2026-03-09 | short | 13:30 | 24612.50 | 15:30 | 24952.00 | opposite turn | −339.50 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 10:45 | 24535.50 | 13:30 | 24612.50 | opposite turn | 77.00 |
| 2026-03-09 | short | 10:00 | 24370.75 | 10:45 | 24535.50 | opposite turn | −164.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 12:45 | 24769.50 | 15:59 | 24667.75 | end of day 15:59 | 101.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | long | 10:30 | 24821.75 | 12:45 | 24769.50 | opposite turn | −52.25 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 15:00 | 24857.75 | 15:59 | 25047.75 | end of day 15:59 | 190.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 11:15 | 24985.75 | 15:00 | 24857.75 | opposite turn | 128.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 10:00 | 25185.25 | 11:15 | 24985.75 | opposite turn | −199.50 |
| 2026-03-04 | short | 15:00 | 25188.75 | 15:59 | 25120.00 | end of day 15:59 | 68.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | long | 13:45 | 25201.00 | 15:00 | 25188.75 | opposite turn | −12.25 |
| 2026-03-04 | short | 13:30 | 25172.00 | 13:45 | 25201.00 | opposite turn | −29.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | short | 15:45 | 24767.50 | 15:59 | 24757.25 | end of day 15:59 | 10.25 |
| 2026-03-03 | long | 11:15 | 24573.00 | 15:45 | 24767.50 | opposite turn | 194.50 |
| 2026-03-02 | short | 15:15 | 24967.25 | 15:59 | 25023.25 | end of day 15:59 | −56.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | 14:45 | 25077.00 | 15:15 | 24967.25 | opposite turn | −109.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | short | 13:45 | 25021.00 | 14:45 | 25077.00 | opposite turn | −56.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | 09:45 | 24836.00 | 13:45 | 25021.00 | opposite turn | 185.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 15:15 | 24968.50 | 15:59 | 24998.25 | end of day 15:59 | 29.75 |
| 2026-02-27 | short | 12:30 | 24952.50 | 15:15 | 24968.50 | opposite turn | −16.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 10:15 | 24954.25 | 12:30 | 24952.50 | opposite turn | −1.75 |
| 2026-02-26 | long | 13:45 | 24999.75 | 15:59 | 25083.25 | end of day 15:59 | 83.50 |
| 2026-02-26 | short | 13:15 | 24908.00 | 13:45 | 24999.75 | opposite turn | −91.75 |
| 2026-02-26 | long | 13:00 | 24935.25 | 13:15 | 24908.00 | opposite turn | −27.25 |
| 2026-02-25 | long | 13:00 | 25352.75 | 15:59 | 25384.50 | end of day 15:59 | 31.75 |
| 2026-02-25 | short | 12:30 | 25321.00 | 13:00 | 25352.75 | opposite turn | −31.75 |
| 2026-02-24 | short | 13:30 | 25019.75 | 15:59 | 25030.00 | end of day 15:59 | −10.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20-period Hull moving average turns up?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 698 long trades, won 42.1% of them and made -1,243.25 points (-$24,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -569.00 points on 2,136 trades on the 5-minute chart, -506.00 points on 175 trades on the 1-hour chart and 1,964.75 points on 29 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 20-period Hull moving average turns down?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 694 short trades, won 37.0% of them and made -534.25 points (-$26,712 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 230.50 points on 2,071 trades on the 5-minute chart, 615.75 points on 195 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,409.50 points on 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Hull moving average turn strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,410 trades, won 39.9% of them and finished -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Hull MA 20 turn on ES futures?
The Hull moving average turn strategy won 40.1% of its 1,378 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.0% of 4,121 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.4% of 367 trades on the 1-hour chart and 29.5% of 61 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Hull moving average turn strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy made -5,981.75 points on 4,282 trades on the 5-minute chart, -3,317.50 points on 1,410 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,046.75 points on 344 trades on the 1-hour chart and -4,980.25 points on 57 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Hull moving average turn signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,243.25 points on 698 trades (42.1% won) and the short trades made -2,074.25 points on 712 trades (37.8% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Hull moving average turn strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 4,282 on the 5-minute chart, 344 on the 1-hour chart and 57 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Hull moving average turn strategy on NQ?
The Hull moving average turn strategy had a max drawdown of 5,357.75 points ($107,155 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 8,439.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,491.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 7,095.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Hull moving average turn strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,378 trades, won 40.1% of them and made -622.75 points (-$31,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Hull moving average turn strategy took 1,410 trades, won 39.9% of them and made -3,317.50 points (-$66,350 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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