Strategy library · Opening and session
Initial balance breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Initial balance breakout (first hour)
Also called: first hour breakout, initial balance strategy, IB breakout, opening hour range breakout, buy when price breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour, short when price breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour?
What it is
The initial balance is the high and low of the first hour of the regular session (09:30 to 10:30 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades on the session timeframe, won 47.7% of them and finished -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 276 long trades on the session timeframe won 53.6% and made 1,267.25 points ($25,345 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the initial balance breakout strategy took 497 trades on the session timeframe, won 48.9% of them and finished 76.25 points ($3,813 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the initial balance breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Range = 09:30-10:30 ET. Exit: Stop at the other side, exit at 15:59.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| Session | 486 | 47.7% | −0.72 | 0.987 | −349.00 | −$6,980 | 3,774.00 | 497 | 48.9% | 0.15 | 1.014 | 76.25 | $3,813 | 760.50 |
| Session · longs only | 276 | 53.6% | — | — | 1,267.25 | $25,345 | 2,212.75 | 269 | 53.5% | — | — | 140.50 | $7,025 | 286.00 |
| Session · shorts only | 210 | 40.0% | — | — | −1,616.25 | −$32,325 | 2,795.00 | 228 | 43.4% | — | — | −64.25 | −$3,212 | 613.50 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES session: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 269 | 140.50 |
| Short | 228 | −64.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | −29.25 |
| 2024-09 | 21 | −183.50 |
| 2024-10 | 23 | 93.75 |
| 2024-11 | 18 | 121.00 |
| 2024-12 | 21 | 49.00 |
| 2025-01 | 21 | 13.75 |
| 2025-02 | 18 | 71.25 |
| 2025-03 | 21 | −24.75 |
| 2025-04 | 20 | 476.00 |
| 2025-05 | 22 | −268.50 |
| 2025-06 | 19 | −166.75 |
| 2025-07 | 23 | 55.75 |
| 2025-08 | 21 | −23.00 |
| 2025-09 | 21 | −133.00 |
| 2025-10 | 23 | 240.00 |
| 2025-11 | 20 | −170.75 |
| 2025-12 | 21 | −9.25 |
| 2026-01 | 21 | −282.50 |
| 2026-02 | 19 | 17.75 |
| 2026-03 | 22 | 149.50 |
| 2026-04 | 19 | 72.50 |
| 2026-05 | 20 | −117.00 |
| 2026-06 | 19 | 170.50 |
| 2026-07 | 22 | −94.50 |
| 2026-08 | 19 | 48.25 |
Every trade, ES session497 trades
Pick any of the 497 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (497), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | long | 10:40 | 6847.25 | 14:43 | 6795.75 | stop range low | −51.50 |
| 2025-11-03 | short | 10:31 | 6851.00 | 15:59 | 6885.25 | end of day 15:59 | −34.25 |
| 2025-10-31 | short | 12:00 | 6873.75 | 15:59 | 6872.00 | end of day 15:59 | 1.75 |
| 2025-10-30 | short | 15:18 | 6866.25 | 15:59 | 6853.75 | end of day 15:59 | 12.50 |
| 2025-10-29 | short | 10:50 | 6935.75 | 15:59 | 6928.00 | end of day 15:59 | 7.75 |
| 2025-10-28 | short | 11:36 | 6906.25 | 12:30 | 6927.25 | stop range high | −21.00 |
| 2025-10-27 | long | 12:05 | 6893.25 | 15:59 | 6907.50 | end of day 15:59 | 14.25 |
| 2025-10-24 | long | 11:21 | 6836.25 | 15:59 | 6827.25 | end of day 15:59 | −9.00 |
| 2025-10-23 | long | 12:08 | 6767.00 | 15:59 | 6774.75 | end of day 15:59 | 7.75 |
| 2025-10-22 | short | 10:31 | 6751.50 | 15:59 | 6737.00 | end of day 15:59 | 14.50 |
| 2025-10-21 | long | 10:53 | 6778.75 | 15:59 | 6772.00 | end of day 15:59 | −6.75 |
| 2025-10-20 | long | 10:40 | 6765.25 | 15:59 | 6773.25 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2025-10-17 | long | 14:06 | 6698.00 | 15:59 | 6703.75 | end of day 15:59 | 5.75 |
| 2025-10-16 | long | 10:43 | 6748.25 | 11:28 | 6717.25 | stop range low | −31.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | short | 11:37 | 6723.75 | 15:59 | 6715.00 | end of day 15:59 | 8.75 |
| 2025-10-14 | long | 10:37 | 6662.75 | 15:59 | 6686.00 | end of day 15:59 | 23.25 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 12:14 | 6697.50 | 15:59 | 6694.50 | end of day 15:59 | −3.00 |
| 2025-10-10 | short | 10:58 | 6776.25 | 15:59 | 6595.00 | end of day 15:59 | 181.25 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 10:31 | 6779.50 | 15:59 | 6781.25 | end of day 15:59 | −1.75 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 10:33 | 6793.00 | 15:59 | 6802.00 | end of day 15:59 | 9.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | short | 10:36 | 6782.00 | 15:59 | 6762.50 | end of day 15:59 | 19.50 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 11:48 | 6789.75 | 15:59 | 6788.50 | end of day 15:59 | −1.25 |
| 2025-10-03 | long | 10:32 | 6788.50 | 13:46 | 6771.50 | stop range low | −17.00 |
| 2025-10-02 | short | 10:46 | 6755.50 | 15:59 | 6766.75 | end of day 15:59 | −11.25 |
| 2025-10-01 | long | 10:35 | 6732.50 | 15:59 | 6760.50 | end of day 15:59 | 28.00 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:40 | 6695.00 | 11:02 | 6713.00 | stop range high | −18.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 11:16 | 6714.50 | 15:59 | 6714.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.25 |
| 2025-09-25 | long | 11:44 | 6674.50 | 14:01 | 6631.25 | stop range low | −43.25 |
| 2025-09-24 | short | 11:34 | 6704.00 | 15:59 | 6692.00 | end of day 15:59 | 12.00 |
| 2025-09-23 | short | 10:35 | 6745.75 | 15:59 | 6715.75 | end of day 15:59 | 30.00 |
| 2025-09-22 | long | 10:36 | 6725.75 | 15:59 | 6751.75 | end of day 15:59 | 26.00 |
| 2025-09-19 | short | 10:46 | 6696.25 | 12:23 | 6711.25 | stop range high | −15.00 |
| 2025-09-18 | long | 10:31 | 6715.50 | 15:59 | 6692.25 | end of day 15:59 | −23.25 |
| 2025-09-17 | short | 10:46 | 6659.50 | 14:00 | 6675.75 | stop range high | −16.25 |
| 2025-09-16 | short | 11:02 | 6665.25 | 15:59 | 6668.25 | end of day 15:59 | −3.00 |
| 2025-09-15 | long | 10:33 | 6620.50 | 13:21 | 6607.75 | stop range low | −12.75 |
| 2025-09-12 | long | 10:55 | 6595.75 | 15:40 | 6585.00 | stop range low | −10.75 |
| 2025-09-11 | long | 10:34 | 6580.25 | 15:59 | 6592.25 | end of day 15:59 | 12.00 |
| 2025-09-10 | short | 11:19 | 6542.75 | 15:59 | 6539.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.50 |
| 2025-09-09 | short | 10:33 | 6497.75 | 13:26 | 6515.00 | stop range high | −17.25 |
| 2025-09-08 | long | 10:39 | 6509.50 | 13:51 | 6495.25 | stop range low | −14.25 |
| 2025-09-05 | short | 10:36 | 6474.00 | 15:59 | 6491.00 | end of day 15:59 | −17.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | long | 10:37 | 6476.75 | 15:59 | 6511.25 | end of day 15:59 | 34.50 |
| 2025-09-03 | long | 10:41 | 6456.25 | 12:49 | 6437.75 | stop range low | −18.50 |
| 2025-09-02 | short | 11:36 | 6379.75 | 15:50 | 6425.00 | stop range high | −45.25 |
| 2025-09-01 | long | 10:32 | 6479.75 | 12:59 | 6483.00 | early close | 3.25 |
| 2025-08-29 | short | 10:51 | 6457.25 | 15:59 | 6475.25 | end of day 15:59 | −18.00 |
| 2025-08-28 | long | 12:29 | 6509.75 | 15:59 | 6517.00 | end of day 15:59 | 7.25 |
| 2025-08-27 | long | 10:34 | 6492.50 | 15:59 | 6494.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.75 |
| 2025-08-26 | long | 12:16 | 6462.75 | 15:59 | 6481.00 | end of day 15:59 | 18.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the high of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the initial balance breakout strategy took 276 long trades, won 53.6% of them and made 1,267.25 points ($25,345 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the low of the 09:30-10:30 ET first hour?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the initial balance breakout strategy took 228 short trades, won 43.4% of them and made -64.25 points (-$3,212 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
Does the initial balance breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 486 trades, won 47.7% of them and finished -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Initial balance breakout (first hour) on ES futures?
The initial balance breakout strategy won 48.9% of its 497 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell initial balance breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,267.25 points on 276 trades (53.6% won) and the short trades made -1,616.25 points on 210 trades (40.0% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the initial balance breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the initial balance breakout strategy on NQ?
The initial balance breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,774.00 points ($75,480 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
How does the initial balance breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the initial balance breakout strategy took 497 trades, won 48.9% of them and made 76.25 points ($3,813 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the initial balance breakout strategy took 486 trades, won 47.7% of them and made -349.00 points (-$6,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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