Strategy library · Trend and breakouts
Inside bar breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Inside bar breakout
Also called: inside bar strategy, inside candle breakout, mother bar breakout, buy when price breaks above the mother bar's high after an inside bar, short when price breaks below the mother bar's low after an inside bar
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the mother bar's high after an inside bar?
What it is
An inside bar is a bar whose range sits inside the range of the previous bar, called the mother bar. After an inside bar, this strategy goes long on a break of the mother bar's high and short on a break of its low, with the stop at the other side of the mother bar and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 45.9% of them and finished 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 230 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 51.7% and made 2,777.00 points ($55,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the inside bar breakout strategy took 379 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.4% of them and finished 99.00 points ($4,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the inside bar breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: After an inside bar, long on a break of the mother bar's high; short on a break of its low. Exit: Stop at the other side of the mother bar, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1018 | 35.2% | −5.48 | 0.850 | −5,575.00 | −$111,500 | 6,787.00 | 935 | 37.2% | −0.01 | 0.998 | −13.50 | −$675 | 795.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 536 | 34.5% | — | — | −4,996.75 | −$99,935 | 5,468.25 | 483 | 36.2% | — | — | −439.25 | −$21,962 | 784.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 482 | 35.9% | — | — | −578.25 | −$11,565 | 2,831.75 | 452 | 38.3% | — | — | 425.75 | $21,288 | 210.25 |
| 15 minute | 436 | 45.9% | 4.86 | 1.113 | 2,121.00 | $42,420 | 2,099.25 | 379 | 41.4% | 0.26 | 1.028 | 99.00 | $4,950 | 655.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 230 | 51.7% | — | — | 2,777.00 | $55,540 | 1,211.25 | 204 | 45.1% | — | — | 173.50 | $8,675 | 257.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 206 | 39.3% | — | — | −656.00 | −$13,120 | 2,768.75 | 175 | 37.1% | — | — | −74.50 | −$3,725 | 691.75 |
| 1 hour | 105 | 47.6% | −3.27 | 0.936 | −343.75 | −$6,875 | 2,257.75 | 114 | 51.8% | 3.45 | 1.352 | 393.50 | $19,675 | 325.00 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 64 | 53.1% | — | — | 1,717.00 | $34,340 | 335.00 | 63 | 52.4% | — | — | 433.25 | $21,663 | 137.75 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 41 | 39.0% | — | — | −2,060.75 | −$41,215 | 2,583.00 | 51 | 51.0% | — | — | −39.75 | −$1,987 | 343.75 |
| Daily | 11 | 45.5% | 799.68 | 3.631 | 8,796.50 | $175,930 | 2,087.50 | 15 | 26.7% | −18.58 | 0.792 | −278.75 | −$13,937 | 619.50 |
| Daily · longs only | 7 | 28.6% | — | — | 4,063.25 | $81,265 | 2,087.50 | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | 241.25 | $12,063 | 353.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 4 | 75.0% | — | — | 4,733.25 | $94,665 | 549.25 | 7 | 14.3% | — | — | −520.00 | −$26,000 | 565.50 |
NQ Daily: small sample (11 trades). ES Daily: small sample (15 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 204 | 173.50 |
| Short | 175 | −74.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 2 | −21.00 |
| 2024-09 | 10 | −11.75 |
| 2024-10 | 12 | 36.75 |
| 2024-11 | 14 | 93.50 |
| 2024-12 | 17 | 9.75 |
| 2025-01 | 14 | 33.50 |
| 2025-02 | 16 | 108.75 |
| 2025-03 | 17 | −166.50 |
| 2025-04 | 20 | 450.25 |
| 2025-05 | 19 | −129.25 |
| 2025-06 | 16 | −138.00 |
| 2025-07 | 13 | −54.25 |
| 2025-08 | 19 | 75.00 |
| 2025-09 | 18 | −83.75 |
| 2025-10 | 16 | 25.50 |
| 2025-11 | 20 | −134.75 |
| 2025-12 | 12 | −49.00 |
| 2026-01 | 13 | 18.75 |
| 2026-02 | 11 | 36.75 |
| 2026-03 | 18 | −130.75 |
| 2026-04 | 22 | 6.25 |
| 2026-05 | 17 | 8.25 |
| 2026-06 | 18 | 45.25 |
| 2026-07 | 13 | 69.25 |
| 2026-08 | 12 | 0.50 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute379 trades
Pick any of the 379 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (379), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-19 | long | 15:00 | 6165.25 | 15:09 | 6159.50 | stop | −5.75 |
| 2025-02-19 | long | 10:45 | 6139.25 | 14:14 | 6159.25 | target | 20.00 |
| 2025-02-13 | long | 10:15 | 6091.25 | 15:17 | 6133.25 | target | 42.00 |
| 2025-02-12 | short | 15:30 | 6072.25 | 15:59 | 6072.75 | end of day 15:59 | −0.50 |
| 2025-02-12 | short | 11:15 | 6048.50 | 11:58 | 6072.25 | stop | −23.75 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 09:45 | 6074.00 | 15:59 | 6092.50 | end of day 15:59 | 18.50 |
| 2025-02-10 | long | 10:15 | 6084.75 | 15:59 | 6088.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.50 |
| 2025-02-06 | long | 15:30 | 6091.25 | 15:59 | 6107.00 | end of day 15:59 | 15.75 |
| 2025-02-05 | long | 14:15 | 6079.50 | 15:59 | 6086.00 | end of day 15:59 | 6.50 |
| 2025-02-04 | long | 11:15 | 6059.00 | 12:21 | 6046.50 | stop | −12.50 |
| 2025-01-31 | short | 14:45 | 6075.50 | 15:59 | 6064.75 | end of day 15:59 | 10.75 |
| 2025-01-29 | short | 14:15 | 6050.25 | 14:41 | 6076.75 | stop | −26.50 |
| 2025-01-28 | long | 11:00 | 6082.00 | 15:59 | 6096.00 | end of day 15:59 | 14.00 |
| 2025-01-23 | long | 10:45 | 6121.25 | 15:50 | 6139.75 | target | 18.50 |
| 2025-01-20 | short | 12:00 | 6055.75 | 12:26 | 6044.25 | target | 11.50 |
| 2025-01-15 | long | 13:30 | 5984.00 | 15:59 | 5988.50 | end of day 15:59 | 4.50 |
| 2025-01-13 | long | 13:00 | 5855.25 | 15:59 | 5875.25 | end of day 15:59 | 20.00 |
| 2025-01-08 | short | 12:15 | 5938.50 | 14:24 | 5965.25 | stop | −26.75 |
| 2025-01-07 | short | 10:15 | 5998.25 | 15:59 | 5955.00 | end of day 15:59 | 43.25 |
| 2025-01-06 | short | 13:45 | 6034.25 | 15:48 | 6007.25 | target | 27.00 |
| 2025-01-06 | long | 11:30 | 6065.75 | 12:28 | 6055.00 | stop | −10.75 |
| 2025-01-03 | long | 11:45 | 5977.50 | 15:59 | 5988.00 | end of day 15:59 | 10.50 |
| 2025-01-02 | long | 11:45 | 5951.75 | 12:27 | 5924.00 | stop | −27.75 |
| 2025-01-02 | short | 09:45 | 5944.00 | 10:00 | 5978.75 | stop | −34.75 |
| 2024-12-30 | long | 12:15 | 5971.75 | 15:59 | 5958.00 | end of day 15:59 | −13.75 |
| 2024-12-30 | short | 09:45 | 5937.00 | 11:34 | 5960.00 | stop | −23.00 |
| 2024-12-24 | long | 11:45 | 6084.25 | 13:14 | 6099.00 | early close | 14.75 |
| 2024-12-23 | long | 14:15 | 6030.50 | 14:39 | 6022.50 | stop | −8.00 |
| 2024-12-20 | short | 13:15 | 6030.00 | 15:33 | 5991.50 | target | 38.50 |
| 2024-12-17 | long | 11:00 | 6125.25 | 15:19 | 6117.00 | stop | −8.25 |
| 2024-12-16 | long | 12:45 | 6084.75 | 15:46 | 6078.25 | stop | −6.50 |
| 2024-12-12 | short | 11:45 | 6080.50 | 14:22 | 6066.00 | target | 14.50 |
| 2024-12-11 | long | 12:15 | 6098.00 | 15:59 | 6091.75 | stop | −6.25 |
| 2024-12-10 | short | 11:45 | 6062.75 | 15:26 | 6046.25 | target | 16.50 |
| 2024-12-06 | long | 13:15 | 6101.75 | 14:11 | 6090.50 | stop | −11.25 |
| 2024-12-06 | short | 12:45 | 6092.25 | 13:06 | 6098.75 | stop | −6.50 |
| 2024-12-05 | short | 13:30 | 6095.50 | 15:59 | 6088.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.75 |
| 2024-12-05 | long | 12:00 | 6100.00 | 13:24 | 6091.75 | stop | −8.25 |
| 2024-12-04 | long | 14:30 | 6091.50 | 15:59 | 6099.00 | end of day 15:59 | 7.50 |
| 2024-12-04 | long | 11:15 | 6087.00 | 13:30 | 6078.50 | stop | −8.50 |
| 2024-12-03 | long | 12:30 | 6053.75 | 14:51 | 6065.25 | target | 11.50 |
| 2024-11-27 | short | 10:15 | 6026.75 | 12:02 | 6006.25 | target | 20.50 |
| 2024-11-26 | long | 15:15 | 6034.00 | 15:59 | 6037.00 | end of day 15:59 | 3.00 |
| 2024-11-21 | short | 15:45 | 5977.00 | 15:59 | 5970.00 | end of day 15:59 | 7.00 |
| 2024-11-19 | long | 10:30 | 5900.50 | 15:59 | 5939.00 | end of day 15:59 | 38.50 |
| 2024-11-18 | long | 10:15 | 5905.75 | 15:59 | 5920.25 | end of day 15:59 | 14.50 |
| 2024-11-14 | long | 14:45 | 5995.50 | 15:04 | 5980.25 | stop | −15.25 |
| 2024-11-13 | long | 13:00 | 6034.25 | 14:18 | 6023.25 | stop | −11.00 |
| 2024-11-12 | short | 10:45 | 6019.00 | 12:58 | 5990.00 | target | 29.00 |
| 2024-11-08 | long | 14:30 | 6036.25 | 15:01 | 6029.75 | stop | −6.50 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the mother bar's high after an inside bar?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the inside bar breakout strategy took 230 long trades, won 51.7% of them and made 2,777.00 points ($55,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -4,996.75 points on 536 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,717.00 points on 64 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,063.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the mother bar's low after an inside bar?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the inside bar breakout strategy took 175 short trades, won 37.1% of them and made -74.50 points (-$3,725 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 425.75 points on 452 trades on the 5-minute chart, -39.75 points on 51 trades on the 1-hour chart and -520.00 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the inside bar breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 436 trades, won 45.9% of them and finished 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Inside bar breakout on ES futures?
The inside bar breakout strategy won 41.4% of its 379 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 37.2% of 935 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.8% of 114 trades on the 1-hour chart and 26.7% of 15 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the inside bar breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy made -5,575.00 points on 1,018 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,121.00 points on 436 trades on the 15-minute chart, -343.75 points on 105 trades on the 1-hour chart and 8,796.50 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell inside bar breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,777.00 points on 230 trades (51.7% won) and the short trades made -656.00 points on 206 trades (39.3% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the inside bar breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,018 on the 5-minute chart, 105 on the 1-hour chart and 11 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the inside bar breakout strategy on NQ?
The inside bar breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,099.25 points ($41,985 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 6,787.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,257.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,087.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the inside bar breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the inside bar breakout strategy took 379 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 99.00 points ($4,950 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the inside bar breakout strategy took 436 trades, won 45.9% of them and made 2,121.00 points ($42,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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