Strategy library · Momentum oscillators
MACD cross below zero backtest on NQ and ES futures
MACD cross below zero
Also called: MACD signal cross below zero, MACD cross while below zero, MACD zero filter strategy, buy when the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are below zero, short when the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are above zero
What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are below zero?
What it is
This strategy trades the MACD crossing its signal line only on the side of the zero line the cross happens on: long when both are below zero, short only when both are above zero. It exits on the opposite signal cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.7% of them and finished -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 337 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.0% and made -2,401.50 points (-$48,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 699 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.1% of them and finished -214.00 points (-$10,700 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the MACD cross below zero strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long only when the MACD crosses its signal line while both are below zero; short only above zero. Exit: Opposite signal cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1923 | 38.5% | −1.09 | 0.964 | −2,100.25 | −$42,005 | 3,371.50 | 1884 | 40.2% | 0.66 | 1.113 | 1,243.50 | $62,175 | 423.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 885 | 40.0% | — | — | −1,003.50 | −$20,070 | 1,887.75 | 902 | 40.8% | — | — | 192.75 | $9,638 | 349.00 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1038 | 37.3% | — | — | −1,096.75 | −$21,935 | 2,236.25 | 982 | 39.6% | — | — | 1,050.75 | $52,538 | 285.25 |
| 15 minute | 696 | 41.7% | −3.08 | 0.923 | −2,146.50 | −$42,930 | 2,817.75 | 699 | 42.1% | −0.31 | 0.962 | −214.00 | −$10,700 | 651.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 337 | 43.0% | — | — | −2,401.50 | −$48,030 | 3,120.25 | 330 | 41.5% | — | — | −403.00 | −$20,150 | 624.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 359 | 40.4% | — | — | 255.00 | $5,100 | 1,329.00 | 369 | 42.6% | — | — | 189.00 | $9,450 | 350.75 |
| 1 hour | 128 | 46.9% | −3.91 | 0.928 | −500.25 | −$10,005 | 2,707.25 | 148 | 43.9% | −2.17 | 0.830 | −320.50 | −$16,025 | 444.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 62 | 50.0% | — | — | −1,346.50 | −$26,930 | 1,898.50 | 61 | 44.3% | — | — | −271.00 | −$13,550 | 363.75 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 66 | 43.9% | — | — | 846.25 | $16,925 | 967.75 | 87 | 43.7% | — | — | −49.50 | −$2,475 | 274.75 |
| Daily | 27 | 22.2% | −37.89 | 0.917 | −1,023.00 | −$20,460 | 5,988.00 | 28 | 17.9% | −26.08 | 0.712 | −730.25 | −$36,512 | 1,371.50 |
| Daily · longs only | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | 5,550.75 | $111,015 | 1,202.25 | 7 | 42.9% | — | — | 840.00 | $42,000 | 333.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 19 | 15.8% | — | — | −6,573.75 | −$131,475 | 6,986.75 | 21 | 9.5% | — | — | −1,570.25 | −$78,512 | 1,570.25 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 902 | 192.75 |
| Short | 982 | 1,050.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 14 | 40.75 |
| 2024-09 | 85 | 219.75 |
| 2024-10 | 98 | −55.25 |
| 2024-11 | 62 | 42.25 |
| 2024-12 | 70 | 196.00 |
| 2025-01 | 81 | −79.25 |
| 2025-02 | 68 | 372.00 |
| 2025-03 | 78 | −68.25 |
| 2025-04 | 75 | −151.75 |
| 2025-05 | 80 | 42.75 |
| 2025-06 | 85 | 105.50 |
| 2025-07 | 83 | −139.25 |
| 2025-08 | 75 | 1.25 |
| 2025-09 | 91 | −23.00 |
| 2025-10 | 80 | 21.25 |
| 2025-11 | 62 | 410.25 |
| 2025-12 | 85 | −246.50 |
| 2026-01 | 76 | 76.50 |
| 2026-02 | 69 | 249.75 |
| 2026-03 | 80 | −13.00 |
| 2026-04 | 75 | 17.75 |
| 2026-05 | 81 | 159.50 |
| 2026-06 | 82 | −150.75 |
| 2026-07 | 72 | 314.00 |
| 2026-08 | 77 | −98.75 |
Every trade, ES 5 minute1884 trades
Pick any of the 1884 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1884), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | long | 13:30 | 7345.25 | 14:45 | 7369.25 | opposite signal cross | 24.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | short | 12:55 | 7291.00 | 13:30 | 7345.25 | opposite signal cross | −54.25 |
| 2026-06-11 | long | 11:30 | 7291.00 | 12:55 | 7291.00 | opposite signal cross | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | long | 10:25 | 7311.25 | 10:50 | 7301.00 | opposite signal cross | −10.25 |
| 2026-06-11 | long | 09:55 | 7330.25 | 10:20 | 7290.25 | opposite signal cross | −40.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | long | 15:45 | 7293.75 | 15:59 | 7276.00 | end of day 15:59 | −17.75 |
| 2026-06-10 | long | 13:50 | 7323.75 | 14:40 | 7306.00 | opposite signal cross | −17.75 |
| 2026-06-10 | long | 12:35 | 7336.75 | 13:15 | 7310.25 | opposite signal cross | −26.50 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | 10:45 | 7376.50 | 12:35 | 7336.75 | opposite signal cross | 39.75 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | 09:35 | 7338.50 | 09:40 | 7366.50 | opposite signal cross | −28.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 15:20 | 7358.50 | 15:59 | 7392.00 | end of day 15:59 | −33.50 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 13:00 | 7287.25 | 15:20 | 7358.50 | opposite signal cross | 71.25 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 10:15 | 7437.00 | 13:00 | 7287.25 | opposite signal cross | 149.75 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 13:55 | 7437.50 | 15:10 | 7424.25 | opposite signal cross | −13.25 |
| 2026-06-08 | short | 11:35 | 7443.75 | 13:55 | 7437.50 | opposite signal cross | 6.25 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 10:40 | 7455.25 | 11:35 | 7443.75 | opposite signal cross | −11.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 15:40 | 7411.75 | 15:59 | 7400.25 | end of day 15:59 | −11.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 13:00 | 7469.75 | 14:20 | 7438.75 | opposite signal cross | −31.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 10:35 | 7528.25 | 11:20 | 7510.75 | opposite signal cross | −17.50 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 12:55 | 7596.75 | 15:59 | 7599.50 | end of day 15:59 | −2.75 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 11:50 | 7577.00 | 12:20 | 7592.00 | opposite signal cross | −15.00 |
| 2026-06-03 | short | 15:05 | 7577.75 | 15:59 | 7572.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 12:55 | 7572.50 | 15:05 | 7577.75 | opposite signal cross | 5.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 12:15 | 7579.50 | 12:20 | 7576.00 | opposite signal cross | −3.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 10:30 | 7594.75 | 11:40 | 7580.50 | opposite signal cross | −14.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 09:35 | 7609.50 | 09:45 | 7592.25 | opposite signal cross | −17.25 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | 15:00 | 7619.00 | 15:59 | 7623.50 | end of day 15:59 | 4.50 |
| 2026-06-02 | short | 11:45 | 7624.75 | 15:00 | 7619.00 | opposite signal cross | 5.75 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | 09:35 | 7602.50 | 11:45 | 7624.75 | opposite signal cross | 22.25 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 14:45 | 7627.75 | 15:59 | 7614.00 | end of day 15:59 | 13.75 |
| 2026-06-01 | long | 10:15 | 7587.75 | 14:45 | 7627.75 | opposite signal cross | 40.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 15:10 | 7593.00 | 15:59 | 7595.00 | end of day 15:59 | 2.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 14:30 | 7593.50 | 15:00 | 7585.25 | opposite signal cross | −8.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | short | 13:00 | 7598.00 | 14:30 | 7593.50 | opposite signal cross | 4.50 |
| 2026-05-29 | short | 12:00 | 7594.75 | 12:05 | 7599.75 | opposite signal cross | −5.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | short | 10:25 | 7593.25 | 11:15 | 7603.25 | opposite signal cross | −10.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 09:35 | 7591.75 | 10:25 | 7593.25 | opposite signal cross | 1.50 |
| 2026-05-28 | short | 11:50 | 7573.00 | 15:35 | 7584.00 | opposite signal cross | −11.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | short | 09:35 | 7530.00 | 10:10 | 7540.00 | opposite signal cross | −10.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | short | 15:30 | 7539.25 | 15:59 | 7540.00 | end of day 15:59 | −0.75 |
| 2026-05-27 | long | 13:35 | 7529.00 | 15:30 | 7539.25 | opposite signal cross | 10.25 |
| 2026-05-27 | long | 12:10 | 7528.00 | 13:10 | 7516.00 | opposite signal cross | −12.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | long | 10:15 | 7541.50 | 11:00 | 7530.00 | opposite signal cross | −11.50 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 15:25 | 7528.50 | 15:59 | 7539.25 | end of day 15:59 | 10.75 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 13:35 | 7524.00 | 15:05 | 7525.75 | opposite signal cross | 1.75 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 12:30 | 7531.00 | 13:30 | 7519.75 | opposite signal cross | −11.25 |
| 2026-05-26 | short | 11:05 | 7541.50 | 12:30 | 7531.00 | opposite signal cross | 10.50 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 10:05 | 7545.00 | 11:05 | 7541.50 | opposite signal cross | −3.50 |
| 2026-05-25 | long | 12:45 | 7558.75 | 12:59 | 7564.50 | early close | 5.75 |
| 2026-05-25 | long | 11:15 | 7564.00 | 12:20 | 7557.50 | opposite signal cross | −6.50 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are below zero?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 337 long trades, won 43.0% of them and made -2,401.50 points (-$48,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,003.50 points on 885 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,346.50 points on 62 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,550.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the MACD crosses its signal line while both lines are above zero?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 369 short trades, won 42.6% of them and made 189.00 points ($9,450 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 1,050.75 points on 982 trades on the 5-minute chart, -49.50 points on 87 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,570.25 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the MACD cross below zero strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy on the 15-minute chart took 696 trades, won 41.7% of them and finished -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of MACD cross below zero on ES futures?
The MACD cross below zero strategy won 42.1% of its 699 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 40.2% of 1,884 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.9% of 148 trades on the 1-hour chart and 17.9% of 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the MACD cross below zero strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy made -2,100.25 points on 1,923 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,146.50 points on 696 trades on the 15-minute chart, -500.25 points on 128 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,023.00 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell MACD cross below zero signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -2,401.50 points on 337 trades (43.0% won) and the short trades made 255.00 points on 359 trades (40.4% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the MACD cross below zero strategy take on NQ in two years?
The MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,923 on the 5-minute chart, 128 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the MACD cross below zero strategy on NQ?
The MACD cross below zero strategy had a max drawdown of 2,817.75 points ($56,355 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,371.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,707.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,988.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the MACD cross below zero strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 699 trades, won 42.1% of them and made -214.00 points (-$10,700 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the MACD cross below zero strategy took 696 trades, won 41.7% of them and made -2,146.50 points (-$42,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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