Strategy library · Opening and session
15-minute opening range breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Opening range breakout, 15 minutes
Also called: ORB 15, 15 minute ORB, opening range breakout 15 minutes, 15 minute opening range, 15 minute opening range breakout, buy when price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range, short when price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range
What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range?
What it is
The opening range is the high and low of the first 15 minutes of the regular session (09:30 to 09:45 ET). This strategy goes long on the first break of the range high and short on the first break of the range low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 43.8% of them and finished 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 264 long trades on the session timeframe won 46.6% and made 2,928.00 points ($58,560 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the session timeframe, won 41.4% of them and finished 503.75 points ($25,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Range = 09:30-09:45 ET. Same rules as OS01. Exit: Stop at the other side, exit at 15:59.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| Session | 514 | 43.8% | 4.70 | 1.080 | 2,415.75 | $48,315 | 4,775.25 | 514 | 41.4% | 0.98 | 1.090 | 503.75 | $25,188 | 605.75 |
| Session · longs only | 264 | 46.6% | — | — | 2,928.00 | $58,560 | 2,239.00 | 271 | 43.2% | — | — | 70.25 | $3,513 | 324.25 |
| Session · shorts only | 250 | 40.8% | — | — | −512.25 | −$10,245 | 3,587.25 | 243 | 39.5% | — | — | 433.50 | $21,675 | 379.50 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES session: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 271 | 70.25 |
| Short | 243 | 433.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | −9.00 |
| 2024-09 | 21 | −68.00 |
| 2024-10 | 23 | 231.00 |
| 2024-11 | 21 | −7.75 |
| 2024-12 | 21 | 72.25 |
| 2025-01 | 21 | 15.00 |
| 2025-02 | 20 | 224.50 |
| 2025-03 | 21 | 145.75 |
| 2025-04 | 21 | 177.75 |
| 2025-05 | 22 | −58.25 |
| 2025-06 | 21 | −130.25 |
| 2025-07 | 23 | 41.75 |
| 2025-08 | 21 | 43.25 |
| 2025-09 | 22 | −83.00 |
| 2025-10 | 23 | 13.25 |
| 2025-11 | 20 | −156.25 |
| 2025-12 | 22 | 152.25 |
| 2026-01 | 21 | −118.50 |
| 2026-02 | 20 | 366.75 |
| 2026-03 | 22 | −156.75 |
| 2026-04 | 21 | 28.00 |
| 2026-05 | 21 | −147.25 |
| 2026-06 | 21 | −25.50 |
| 2026-07 | 23 | −175.00 |
| 2026-08 | 19 | 127.75 |
Every trade, ES session514 trades
Pick any of the 514 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (514), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-17 | long | 09:51 | 5331.75 | 10:20 | 5309.75 | stop range low | −22.00 |
| 2025-04-16 | short | 09:52 | 5362.25 | 11:24 | 5388.75 | stop range high | −26.50 |
| 2025-04-15 | long | 09:49 | 5475.75 | 10:19 | 5444.25 | stop range low | −31.50 |
| 2025-04-14 | short | 11:29 | 5440.50 | 15:59 | 5442.50 | end of day 15:59 | −2.00 |
| 2025-04-11 | long | 09:47 | 5323.25 | 10:23 | 5262.25 | stop range low | −61.00 |
| 2025-04-10 | short | 10:02 | 5329.50 | 15:59 | 5299.50 | end of day 15:59 | 30.00 |
| 2025-04-09 | long | 10:01 | 5071.75 | 10:59 | 4982.75 | stop range low | −89.00 |
| 2025-04-08 | long | 09:59 | 5284.25 | 11:00 | 5231.00 | stop range low | −53.25 |
| 2025-04-07 | long | 09:53 | 4962.00 | 15:59 | 5098.75 | end of day 15:59 | 136.75 |
| 2025-04-04 | short | 10:12 | 5243.75 | 15:59 | 5108.50 | end of day 15:59 | 135.25 |
| 2025-04-03 | short | 09:57 | 5506.75 | 15:59 | 5436.00 | end of day 15:59 | 70.75 |
| 2025-04-02 | long | 09:46 | 5654.75 | 15:59 | 5710.00 | end of day 15:59 | 55.25 |
| 2025-04-01 | long | 09:48 | 5643.00 | 10:06 | 5623.00 | stop range low | −20.00 |
| 2025-03-31 | short | 09:46 | 5535.25 | 10:01 | 5572.00 | stop range high | −36.75 |
| 2025-03-28 | short | 09:53 | 5710.50 | 15:59 | 5624.50 | end of day 15:59 | 86.00 |
| 2025-03-27 | long | 09:55 | 5748.50 | 15:59 | 5740.50 | end of day 15:59 | −8.00 |
| 2025-03-26 | short | 09:52 | 5818.00 | 15:59 | 5758.25 | end of day 15:59 | 59.75 |
| 2025-03-25 | short | 09:51 | 5815.25 | 10:29 | 5829.75 | stop range high | −14.50 |
| 2025-03-24 | long | 09:47 | 5798.00 | 15:59 | 5813.50 | end of day 15:59 | 15.50 |
| 2025-03-21 | long | 10:55 | 5675.75 | 15:59 | 5714.50 | end of day 15:59 | 38.75 |
| 2025-03-20 | long | 09:51 | 5714.25 | 15:59 | 5714.50 | end of day 15:59 | 0.25 |
| 2025-03-19 | long | 09:48 | 5692.75 | 15:59 | 5730.75 | end of day 15:59 | 38.00 |
| 2025-03-18 | short | 09:46 | 5676.75 | 15:59 | 5672.00 | end of day 15:59 | 4.75 |
| 2025-03-17 | long | 09:46 | 5671.00 | 15:59 | 5680.50 | end of day 15:59 | 9.50 |
| 2025-03-14 | long | 09:46 | 5598.75 | 10:00 | 5568.50 | stop range low | −30.25 |
| 2025-03-13 | short | 09:47 | 5582.50 | 10:25 | 5600.00 | stop range high | −17.50 |
| 2025-03-12 | short | 09:49 | 5611.00 | 15:59 | 5602.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.25 |
| 2025-03-11 | long | 09:49 | 5627.75 | 10:03 | 5597.50 | stop range low | −30.25 |
| 2025-03-10 | short | 10:02 | 5679.00 | 15:59 | 5623.50 | end of day 15:59 | 55.50 |
| 2025-03-07 | long | 09:49 | 5771.75 | 10:31 | 5724.50 | stop range low | −47.25 |
| 2025-03-06 | long | 10:04 | 5779.25 | 12:04 | 5753.25 | stop range low | −26.00 |
| 2025-03-05 | short | 09:57 | 5775.75 | 10:00 | 5812.75 | stop range high | −37.00 |
| 2025-03-04 | short | 09:51 | 5797.75 | 13:56 | 5824.25 | stop range high | −26.50 |
| 2025-03-03 | short | 09:50 | 5966.25 | 15:59 | 5862.75 | end of day 15:59 | 103.50 |
| 2025-02-28 | long | 10:01 | 5889.50 | 13:16 | 5857.00 | stop range low | −32.50 |
| 2025-02-27 | short | 09:53 | 5974.75 | 15:59 | 5877.50 | end of day 15:59 | 97.25 |
| 2025-02-26 | long | 09:49 | 5994.50 | 13:02 | 5978.25 | stop range low | −16.25 |
| 2025-02-25 | short | 09:47 | 5992.00 | 15:59 | 5970.50 | end of day 15:59 | 21.50 |
| 2025-02-24 | short | 09:50 | 6035.75 | 15:59 | 6002.25 | end of day 15:59 | 33.50 |
| 2025-02-21 | short | 09:50 | 6118.00 | 15:59 | 6030.25 | end of day 15:59 | 87.75 |
| 2025-02-20 | short | 09:46 | 6138.00 | 15:59 | 6137.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.75 |
| 2025-02-19 | short | 10:05 | 6130.75 | 10:30 | 6136.50 | stop range high | −5.75 |
| 2025-02-18 | short | 09:48 | 6134.75 | 15:58 | 6144.50 | stop range high | −9.75 |
| 2025-02-17 | long | 11:16 | 6145.50 | 12:59 | 6146.00 | early close | 0.50 |
| 2025-02-14 | long | 09:52 | 6141.50 | 10:41 | 6132.50 | stop range low | −9.00 |
| 2025-02-13 | long | 10:03 | 6093.50 | 15:59 | 6135.25 | end of day 15:59 | 41.75 |
| 2025-02-12 | long | 09:47 | 6048.25 | 15:59 | 6072.75 | end of day 15:59 | 24.50 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 10:02 | 6077.25 | 15:59 | 6092.50 | end of day 15:59 | 15.25 |
| 2025-02-10 | long | 10:06 | 6085.25 | 15:59 | 6088.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.00 |
| 2025-02-07 | long | 09:47 | 6120.00 | 10:00 | 6107.25 | stop range low | −12.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price first breaks above the high of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 264 long trades, won 46.6% of them and made 2,928.00 points ($58,560 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price first breaks below the low of the 09:30-09:45 ET opening range?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 243 short trades, won 39.5% of them and made 433.50 points ($21,675 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
Does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 514 trades, won 43.8% of them and finished 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Opening range breakout, 15 minutes on ES futures?
The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy won 41.4% of its 514 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell 15-minute opening range breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,928.00 points on 264 trades (46.6% won) and the short trades made -512.25 points on 250 trades (40.8% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy on NQ?
The 15-minute opening range breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 4,775.25 points ($95,505 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
How does the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 503.75 points ($25,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the 15-minute opening range breakout strategy took 514 trades, won 43.8% of them and made 2,415.75 points ($48,315 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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