Strategy library · Opening and session
Overnight high/low breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Overnight high / low breakout
Also called: Globex range breakout, overnight range breakout, overnight high breakout, buy when price breaks above the overnight high (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours, short when price breaks below the overnight low (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the overnight high (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours?
What it is
The overnight range is the high and low from 18:00 to 09:30 ET. This strategy goes long on a regular-session break of the overnight high and short on a break below the overnight low, with the stop at the other side of the range and an exit at 15:59 ET.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades on the session timeframe, won 49.5% of them and finished 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 245 long trades on the session timeframe won 55.5% and made 5,516.75 points ($110,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 472 trades on the session timeframe, won 50.6% of them and finished 812.75 points ($40,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. This strategy was tested on the session timeframe only; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the overnight high/low breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Overnight range = 18:00-09:30 ET. Long on an RTH break of the overnight high; short below the overnight low. Exit: Stop at the other side, exit at 15:59.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| Session | 467 | 49.5% | 12.47 | 1.192 | 5,821.25 | $116,425 | 2,156.00 | 472 | 50.6% | 1.72 | 1.129 | 812.75 | $40,638 | 515.75 |
| Session · longs only | 245 | 55.5% | — | — | 5,516.75 | $110,335 | 1,231.00 | 264 | 53.8% | — | — | 613.50 | $30,675 | 434.75 |
| Session · shorts only | 222 | 42.8% | — | — | 304.50 | $6,090 | 3,086.00 | 208 | 46.6% | — | — | 199.25 | $9,963 | 455.25 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES session: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 264 | 613.50 |
| Short | 208 | 199.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | −40.00 |
| 2024-09 | 20 | −306.50 |
| 2024-10 | 19 | 168.50 |
| 2024-11 | 21 | 91.75 |
| 2024-12 | 21 | 149.25 |
| 2025-01 | 20 | −123.00 |
| 2025-02 | 16 | 154.25 |
| 2025-03 | 20 | 176.25 |
| 2025-04 | 21 | 337.50 |
| 2025-05 | 19 | −141.00 |
| 2025-06 | 18 | 72.75 |
| 2025-07 | 20 | 116.25 |
| 2025-08 | 19 | 266.75 |
| 2025-09 | 19 | −12.50 |
| 2025-10 | 23 | −132.25 |
| 2025-11 | 18 | −30.00 |
| 2025-12 | 21 | 66.50 |
| 2026-01 | 20 | −2.25 |
| 2026-02 | 20 | −25.00 |
| 2026-03 | 20 | 70.50 |
| 2026-04 | 18 | 120.25 |
| 2026-05 | 20 | −76.50 |
| 2026-06 | 20 | −75.25 |
| 2026-07 | 20 | −142.00 |
| 2026-08 | 16 | 128.50 |
Every trade, ES session472 trades
Pick any of the 472 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (472), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-04 | short | 09:32 | 5809.50 | 15:59 | 5790.75 | end of day 15:59 | 18.75 |
| 2025-03-03 | short | 10:01 | 5942.25 | 15:59 | 5862.75 | end of day 15:59 | 79.50 |
| 2025-02-28 | short | 09:35 | 5858.50 | 10:24 | 5900.50 | stop overnight high | −42.00 |
| 2025-02-27 | short | 09:57 | 5954.25 | 15:59 | 5877.50 | end of day 15:59 | 76.75 |
| 2025-02-26 | long | 09:53 | 6004.75 | 13:02 | 5977.50 | stop overnight low | −27.25 |
| 2025-02-25 | short | 09:53 | 5975.50 | 15:59 | 5970.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.00 |
| 2025-02-24 | short | 09:52 | 6032.25 | 15:59 | 6002.25 | end of day 15:59 | 30.00 |
| 2025-02-21 | short | 09:35 | 6127.25 | 15:59 | 6030.25 | end of day 15:59 | 97.00 |
| 2025-02-20 | short | 09:45 | 6138.25 | 15:59 | 6137.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.00 |
| 2025-02-19 | short | 10:09 | 6130.00 | 14:14 | 6157.00 | stop overnight high | −27.00 |
| 2025-02-18 | short | 09:45 | 6136.50 | 15:59 | 6148.00 | end of day 15:59 | −11.50 |
| 2025-02-13 | long | 10:03 | 6093.50 | 15:59 | 6135.25 | end of day 15:59 | 41.75 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 10:49 | 6087.50 | 15:59 | 6092.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.00 |
| 2025-02-10 | long | 10:09 | 6087.75 | 15:59 | 6088.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.50 |
| 2025-02-07 | long | 09:33 | 6116.25 | 10:12 | 6084.50 | stop overnight low | −31.75 |
| 2025-02-06 | short | 10:48 | 6085.50 | 15:55 | 6106.25 | stop overnight high | −20.75 |
| 2025-02-05 | long | 09:39 | 6054.25 | 15:59 | 6086.00 | end of day 15:59 | 31.75 |
| 2025-02-03 | long | 10:25 | 5997.25 | 15:59 | 6023.00 | end of day 15:59 | 25.75 |
| 2025-01-31 | long | 10:02 | 6132.50 | 13:35 | 6099.25 | stop overnight low | −33.25 |
| 2025-01-30 | long | 09:49 | 6103.25 | 11:01 | 6061.50 | stop overnight low | −41.75 |
| 2025-01-29 | short | 09:43 | 6078.50 | 15:59 | 6068.25 | end of day 15:59 | 10.25 |
| 2025-01-28 | short | 09:47 | 6028.75 | 10:26 | 6073.00 | stop overnight high | −44.25 |
| 2025-01-24 | long | 09:43 | 6157.50 | 13:09 | 6139.00 | stop overnight low | −18.50 |
| 2025-01-23 | long | 10:45 | 6121.25 | 15:59 | 6153.50 | end of day 15:59 | 32.25 |
| 2025-01-22 | long | 09:55 | 6120.25 | 15:59 | 6120.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.00 |
| 2025-01-21 | long | 09:49 | 6070.75 | 15:59 | 6086.50 | end of day 15:59 | 15.75 |
| 2025-01-20 | long | 09:33 | 6066.50 | 12:59 | 6055.25 | early close | −11.25 |
| 2025-01-17 | long | 10:54 | 6036.50 | 15:59 | 6033.00 | end of day 15:59 | −3.50 |
| 2025-01-16 | short | 10:00 | 5981.75 | 15:59 | 5976.25 | end of day 15:59 | 5.50 |
| 2025-01-15 | long | 09:49 | 5980.50 | 15:59 | 5988.50 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2025-01-14 | short | 11:02 | 5874.00 | 15:59 | 5882.00 | end of day 15:59 | −8.00 |
| 2025-01-13 | long | 14:42 | 5869.25 | 15:59 | 5875.25 | end of day 15:59 | 6.00 |
| 2025-01-10 | short | 09:53 | 5887.50 | 15:59 | 5866.50 | end of day 15:59 | 21.00 |
| 2025-01-08 | short | 12:29 | 5923.50 | 15:59 | 5959.00 | end of day 15:59 | −35.50 |
| 2025-01-07 | long | 09:31 | 6044.00 | 10:01 | 6007.00 | stop overnight low | −37.00 |
| 2025-01-06 | long | 09:42 | 6044.25 | 15:59 | 6022.50 | end of day 15:59 | −21.75 |
| 2025-01-03 | long | 09:31 | 5947.25 | 15:59 | 5988.00 | end of day 15:59 | 40.75 |
| 2025-01-02 | short | 12:33 | 5909.50 | 15:59 | 5917.25 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2024-12-31 | short | 11:23 | 5943.00 | 15:59 | 5935.00 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2024-12-30 | short | 09:34 | 5942.00 | 15:59 | 5958.00 | end of day 15:59 | −16.00 |
| 2024-12-27 | short | 09:35 | 6048.00 | 15:59 | 6028.50 | end of day 15:59 | 19.50 |
| 2024-12-26 | short | 09:54 | 6064.75 | 12:17 | 6105.00 | stop overnight high | −40.25 |
| 2024-12-24 | long | 09:41 | 6056.00 | 13:14 | 6099.00 | early close | 43.00 |
| 2024-12-23 | short | 10:03 | 5981.50 | 14:17 | 6033.00 | stop overnight high | −51.50 |
| 2024-12-20 | long | 10:26 | 5945.00 | 15:59 | 6002.25 | end of day 15:59 | 57.25 |
| 2024-12-19 | long | 09:32 | 5995.75 | 15:53 | 5936.00 | stop overnight low | −59.75 |
| 2024-12-18 | short | 14:06 | 6108.25 | 15:59 | 5939.25 | end of day 15:59 | 169.00 |
| 2024-12-17 | short | 09:31 | 6124.00 | 15:59 | 6127.75 | end of day 15:59 | −3.75 |
| 2024-12-16 | long | 10:01 | 6077.50 | 15:59 | 6080.00 | end of day 15:59 | 2.50 |
| 2024-12-13 | short | 10:41 | 6055.25 | 15:59 | 6055.75 | end of day 15:59 | −0.50 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price breaks above the overnight high (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ session timeframe, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 245 long trades, won 55.5% of them and made 5,516.75 points ($110,335 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price breaks below the overnight low (18:00-09:30 ET) during regular hours?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES session timeframe, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 208 short trades, won 46.6% of them and made 199.25 points ($9,963 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
Does the overnight high/low breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy on the session timeframe took 467 trades, won 49.5% of them and finished 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Overnight high / low breakout on ES futures?
The overnight high/low breakout strategy won 50.6% of its 472 trades on the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell overnight high/low breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 5,516.75 points on 245 trades (55.5% won) and the short trades made 304.50 points on 222 trades (42.8% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the overnight high/low breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the overnight high/low breakout strategy on NQ?
The overnight high/low breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,156.00 points ($43,120 on one NQ contract) on the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage.
How does the overnight high/low breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES session timeframe from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 472 trades, won 50.6% of them and made 812.75 points ($40,638 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ session timeframe from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the overnight high/low breakout strategy took 467 trades, won 49.5% of them and made 5,821.25 points ($116,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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