Strategy library · Moving averages
Price crossing the 20 EMA backtest on NQ and ES futures
Price crosses EMA 20
Also called: price cross EMA 20, 20 EMA cross strategy, close above 20 EMA, buy when price closes above the 20 EMA, short when price closes below the 20 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 20 EMA?
What it is
The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) is a moving average that weights recent prices more heavily. This strategy goes long when the close crosses above the EMA 20, short when it crosses below, and reverses on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.5% of them and finished 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 819 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 32.5% and made 2,074.25 points ($41,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,627 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 30.3% of them and finished 243.75 points ($12,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when the close crosses above EMA 20; short when it crosses below. Exit: Opposite cross (stop and reverse).
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 5126 | 26.6% | −0.47 | 0.973 | −2,425.50 | −$48,510 | 5,514.25 | 4951 | 26.7% | 0.11 | 1.031 | 561.50 | $28,075 | 690.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 2566 | 28.6% | — | — | 456.75 | $9,135 | 3,207.50 | 2468 | 27.6% | — | — | 355.25 | $17,763 | 416.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 2560 | 24.5% | — | — | −2,882.25 | −$57,645 | 4,325.75 | 2483 | 25.9% | — | — | 206.25 | $10,313 | 481.00 |
| 15 minute | 1616 | 30.5% | 0.07 | 1.002 | 112.75 | $2,255 | 4,132.00 | 1627 | 30.3% | 0.15 | 1.025 | 243.75 | $12,188 | 702.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 819 | 32.5% | — | — | 2,074.25 | $41,485 | 1,565.00 | 813 | 32.0% | — | — | 610.00 | $30,500 | 303.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 797 | 28.5% | — | — | −1,961.50 | −$39,230 | 4,893.50 | 814 | 28.6% | — | — | −366.25 | −$18,312 | 747.75 |
| 1 hour | 463 | 40.0% | 2.40 | 1.051 | 1,113.00 | $22,260 | 2,961.75 | 517 | 39.5% | 0.48 | 1.049 | 249.25 | $12,463 | 435.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 229 | 42.4% | — | — | 143.50 | $2,870 | 2,667.00 | 239 | 38.1% | — | — | 67.50 | $3,375 | 332.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 234 | 37.6% | — | — | 969.50 | $19,390 | 1,884.25 | 278 | 40.7% | — | — | 181.75 | $9,088 | 374.50 |
| Daily | 74 | 21.6% | −12.25 | 0.945 | −906.75 | −$18,135 | 5,621.75 | 70 | 24.3% | −5.79 | 0.874 | −405.00 | −$20,250 | 1,267.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 37 | 29.7% | — | — | 4,077.00 | $81,540 | 2,534.75 | 35 | 34.3% | — | — | 656.75 | $32,838 | 450.50 |
| Daily · shorts only | 37 | 13.5% | — | — | −4,983.75 | −$99,675 | 5,050.00 | 35 | 14.3% | — | — | −1,061.75 | −$53,087 | 1,173.50 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 813 | 610.00 |
| Short | 814 | −366.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 6 | 61.00 |
| 2024-09 | 70 | 105.75 |
| 2024-10 | 71 | −23.75 |
| 2024-11 | 55 | −59.00 |
| 2024-12 | 61 | 215.25 |
| 2025-01 | 71 | −162.25 |
| 2025-02 | 59 | 63.25 |
| 2025-03 | 71 | 86.00 |
| 2025-04 | 77 | 135.50 |
| 2025-05 | 78 | −291.50 |
| 2025-06 | 59 | 63.75 |
| 2025-07 | 64 | 20.50 |
| 2025-08 | 69 | −117.00 |
| 2025-09 | 76 | −190.25 |
| 2025-10 | 65 | 334.75 |
| 2025-11 | 58 | 285.25 |
| 2025-12 | 79 | −228.50 |
| 2026-01 | 76 | −172.00 |
| 2026-02 | 46 | 18.50 |
| 2026-03 | 78 | 86.50 |
| 2026-04 | 73 | −36.75 |
| 2026-05 | 66 | 83.25 |
| 2026-06 | 69 | −214.75 |
| 2026-07 | 57 | 246.50 |
| 2026-08 | 73 | −66.25 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute1627 trades
Pick any of the 1627 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1627), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | short | 14:45 | 6778.00 | 15:00 | 6779.25 | opposite cross | −1.25 |
| 2025-10-21 | long | 14:00 | 6782.00 | 14:45 | 6778.00 | opposite cross | −4.00 |
| 2025-10-21 | short | 13:30 | 6776.00 | 14:00 | 6782.00 | opposite cross | −6.00 |
| 2025-10-21 | long | 13:15 | 6780.50 | 13:30 | 6776.00 | opposite cross | −4.50 |
| 2025-10-21 | short | 13:00 | 6774.75 | 13:15 | 6780.50 | opposite cross | −5.75 |
| 2025-10-21 | long | 10:45 | 6772.50 | 13:00 | 6774.75 | opposite cross | 2.25 |
| 2025-10-21 | short | 09:45 | 6771.00 | 10:45 | 6772.50 | opposite cross | −1.50 |
| 2025-10-17 | long | 11:30 | 6653.75 | 15:59 | 6703.75 | end of day 15:59 | 50.00 |
| 2025-10-17 | short | 11:15 | 6650.75 | 11:30 | 6653.75 | opposite cross | −3.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | short | 11:30 | 6721.00 | 15:59 | 6668.50 | end of day 15:59 | 52.50 |
| 2025-10-16 | long | 11:15 | 6742.00 | 11:30 | 6721.00 | opposite cross | −21.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | short | 11:00 | 6734.00 | 11:15 | 6742.00 | opposite cross | −8.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | long | 10:45 | 6747.75 | 11:00 | 6734.00 | opposite cross | −13.75 |
| 2025-10-15 | short | 15:45 | 6711.00 | 15:59 | 6715.00 | end of day 15:59 | −4.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | long | 14:45 | 6713.50 | 15:45 | 6711.00 | opposite cross | −2.50 |
| 2025-10-15 | short | 11:45 | 6719.25 | 14:45 | 6713.50 | opposite cross | 5.75 |
| 2025-10-14 | short | 15:45 | 6672.25 | 15:59 | 6686.00 | end of day 15:59 | −13.75 |
| 2025-10-14 | long | 10:15 | 6644.75 | 15:45 | 6672.25 | opposite cross | 27.50 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 15:30 | 6692.75 | 15:59 | 6694.50 | end of day 15:59 | 1.75 |
| 2025-10-13 | short | 15:00 | 6685.75 | 15:30 | 6692.75 | opposite cross | −7.00 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 11:15 | 6678.75 | 15:00 | 6685.75 | opposite cross | 7.00 |
| 2025-10-13 | short | 11:00 | 6666.50 | 11:15 | 6678.75 | opposite cross | −12.25 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 10:45 | 6679.25 | 11:00 | 6666.50 | opposite cross | −12.75 |
| 2025-10-13 | short | 10:30 | 6673.00 | 10:45 | 6679.25 | opposite cross | −6.25 |
| 2025-10-13 | long | 09:45 | 6675.25 | 10:30 | 6673.00 | opposite cross | −2.25 |
| 2025-10-10 | short | 11:00 | 6757.50 | 15:59 | 6595.00 | end of day 15:59 | 162.50 |
| 2025-10-09 | long | 15:30 | 6774.50 | 15:59 | 6781.25 | end of day 15:59 | 6.75 |
| 2025-10-09 | short | 09:45 | 6797.00 | 15:30 | 6774.50 | opposite cross | 22.50 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 10:00 | 6773.50 | 15:59 | 6802.00 | end of day 15:59 | 28.50 |
| 2025-10-08 | short | 09:45 | 6767.50 | 10:00 | 6773.50 | opposite cross | −6.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | long | 15:45 | 6764.25 | 15:59 | 6762.50 | end of day 15:59 | −1.75 |
| 2025-10-07 | short | 10:30 | 6784.00 | 15:45 | 6764.25 | opposite cross | 19.75 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 15:45 | 6790.50 | 15:59 | 6788.50 | end of day 15:59 | −2.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | short | 15:30 | 6789.50 | 15:45 | 6790.50 | opposite cross | −1.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | long | 11:30 | 6784.00 | 15:30 | 6789.50 | opposite cross | 5.50 |
| 2025-10-06 | short | 09:45 | 6775.50 | 11:30 | 6784.00 | opposite cross | −8.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | short | 13:15 | 6787.50 | 15:59 | 6765.00 | end of day 15:59 | 22.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | long | 09:45 | 6781.00 | 13:15 | 6787.50 | opposite cross | 6.50 |
| 2025-10-02 | long | 13:45 | 6762.75 | 15:59 | 6766.75 | end of day 15:59 | 4.00 |
| 2025-10-02 | short | 09:45 | 6764.50 | 13:45 | 6762.75 | opposite cross | 1.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 14:15 | 6713.75 | 15:59 | 6737.25 | end of day 15:59 | 23.50 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 13:00 | 6705.00 | 14:15 | 6713.75 | opposite cross | −8.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 12:00 | 6707.25 | 13:00 | 6705.00 | opposite cross | −2.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 11:30 | 6699.25 | 12:00 | 6707.25 | opposite cross | −8.00 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 11:00 | 6709.50 | 11:30 | 6699.25 | opposite cross | −10.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:45 | 6700.75 | 11:00 | 6709.50 | opposite cross | −8.75 |
| 2025-09-30 | long | 10:30 | 6706.00 | 10:45 | 6700.75 | opposite cross | −5.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:15 | 6704.25 | 10:30 | 6706.00 | opposite cross | −1.75 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 11:00 | 6723.25 | 15:59 | 6714.25 | end of day 15:59 | 9.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | long | 10:45 | 6728.75 | 11:00 | 6723.25 | opposite cross | −5.50 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 20 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 819 long trades, won 32.5% of them and made 2,074.25 points ($41,485 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 456.75 points on 2,566 trades on the 5-minute chart, 143.50 points on 229 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,077.00 points on 37 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 20 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 814 short trades, won 28.6% of them and made -366.25 points (-$18,312 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 206.25 points on 2,483 trades on the 5-minute chart, 181.75 points on 278 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,061.75 points on 35 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,616 trades, won 30.5% of them and finished 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Price crosses EMA 20 on ES futures?
The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy won 30.3% of its 1,627 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 26.7% of 4,951 trades on the 5-minute chart, 39.5% of 517 trades on the 1-hour chart and 24.3% of 70 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy made -2,425.50 points on 5,126 trades on the 5-minute chart, 112.75 points on 1,616 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,113.00 points on 463 trades on the 1-hour chart and -906.75 points on 74 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell price crossing the 20 EMA signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,074.25 points on 819 trades (32.5% won) and the short trades made -1,961.50 points on 797 trades (28.5% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy take on NQ in two years?
The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 5,126 on the 5-minute chart, 463 on the 1-hour chart and 74 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy on NQ?
The price crossing the 20 EMA strategy had a max drawdown of 4,132.00 points ($82,640 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,514.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,961.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,621.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,627 trades, won 30.3% of them and made 243.75 points ($12,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 20 EMA strategy took 1,616 trades, won 30.5% of them and made 112.75 points ($2,255 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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