Strategy library · Moving averages
Price crossing the 50 SMA backtest on NQ and ES futures
Price crosses SMA 50
Also called: 50 SMA cross, 50 period SMA cross, close above 50 SMA, buy when price closes above the 50 SMA, short when price closes below the 50 SMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 50 SMA?
What it is
The 50-period simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the last 50 closes. This strategy goes long on a close above the SMA 50, short on a close below it, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.1% of them and finished 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 710 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 35.9% and made 3,477.00 points ($69,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,417 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 32.0% of them and finished 1,652.00 points ($82,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long on close above SMA 50; short on close below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 3115 | 25.1% | 1.76 | 1.072 | 5,469.50 | $109,390 | 5,367.00 | 3267 | 23.8% | 0.11 | 1.023 | 361.25 | $18,063 | 767.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 1564 | 26.7% | — | — | 4,375.00 | $87,500 | 3,342.50 | 1647 | 25.2% | — | — | 369.25 | $18,463 | 486.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1551 | 23.5% | — | — | 1,094.50 | $21,890 | 3,158.00 | 1620 | 22.3% | — | — | −8.00 | −$400 | 577.75 |
| 15 minute | 1382 | 32.1% | 2.41 | 1.059 | 3,332.25 | $66,645 | 4,029.75 | 1417 | 32.0% | 1.17 | 1.146 | 1,652.00 | $82,600 | 684.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 710 | 35.9% | — | — | 3,477.00 | $69,540 | 2,544.75 | 724 | 34.1% | — | — | 1,142.25 | $57,113 | 333.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 672 | 28.1% | — | — | −144.75 | −$2,895 | 2,888.00 | 693 | 29.7% | — | — | 509.75 | $25,488 | 574.00 |
| 1 hour | 715 | 45.9% | 3.40 | 1.058 | 2,432.00 | $48,640 | 3,411.50 | 758 | 44.5% | −0.41 | 0.967 | −310.25 | −$15,512 | 1,235.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 396 | 51.5% | — | — | 2,431.00 | $48,620 | 2,271.50 | 415 | 48.9% | — | — | 35.00 | $1,750 | 441.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 319 | 38.9% | — | — | 1.00 | $20 | 2,856.50 | 343 | 39.1% | — | — | −345.25 | −$17,262 | 1,006.50 |
| Daily | 45 | 20.0% | 55.84 | 1.236 | 2,512.75 | $50,255 | 5,558.50 | 37 | 32.4% | 19.32 | 1.504 | 715.00 | $35,750 | 643.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 23 | 26.1% | — | — | 5,786.75 | $115,735 | 2,850.00 | 19 | 47.4% | — | — | 1,195.75 | $59,788 | 232.50 |
| Daily · shorts only | 22 | 13.6% | — | — | −3,274.00 | −$65,480 | 4,109.25 | 18 | 16.7% | — | — | −480.75 | −$24,037 | 569.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 710 | 3,477.00 |
| Short | 672 | −144.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 47 | 441.75 |
| 2024-11 | 52 | 345.00 |
| 2024-12 | 51 | 1,205.25 |
| 2025-01 | 64 | −929.00 |
| 2025-02 | 55 | 642.00 |
| 2025-03 | 49 | 1,063.00 |
| 2025-04 | 67 | 1,817.50 |
| 2025-05 | 78 | −1,592.75 |
| 2025-06 | 52 | −475.25 |
| 2025-07 | 62 | −486.75 |
| 2025-08 | 52 | 515.75 |
| 2025-09 | 56 | −30.00 |
| 2025-10 | 49 | 1,483.00 |
| 2025-11 | 48 | 1,310.75 |
| 2025-12 | 80 | −746.25 |
| 2026-01 | 50 | −612.00 |
| 2026-02 | 42 | 916.00 |
| 2026-03 | 53 | 1,111.25 |
| 2026-04 | 63 | 738.00 |
| 2026-05 | 55 | −328.25 |
| 2026-06 | 60 | −695.50 |
| 2026-07 | 57 | 192.50 |
| 2026-08 | 68 | −1,223.00 |
| 2026-09 | 59 | −913.75 |
| 2026-10 | 13 | −417.00 |
Every trade, NQ 15 minute1382 trades
Pick any of the 1382 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1382), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | long | 09:45 | 25061.75 | 15:59 | 25010.25 | end of day 15:59 | −51.50 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 09:45 | 24671.25 | 15:59 | 24670.25 | end of day 15:59 | −1.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | short | 11:00 | 24490.50 | 15:59 | 24398.00 | end of day 15:59 | 92.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | long | 09:45 | 24769.50 | 11:00 | 24490.50 | opposite cross | −279.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | short | 09:45 | 24765.50 | 15:59 | 24555.25 | end of day 15:59 | 210.25 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 13:45 | 24935.50 | 15:59 | 24984.00 | end of day 15:59 | −48.50 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 13:30 | 25007.50 | 13:45 | 24935.50 | opposite cross | −72.00 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 13:15 | 24994.25 | 13:30 | 25007.50 | opposite cross | −13.25 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 13:00 | 25006.50 | 13:15 | 24994.25 | opposite cross | −12.25 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | 11:15 | 24994.00 | 13:00 | 25006.50 | opposite cross | −12.50 |
| 2026-03-11 | long | 09:45 | 25070.50 | 11:15 | 24994.00 | opposite cross | −76.50 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 14:45 | 25036.50 | 15:59 | 24986.50 | end of day 15:59 | 50.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | long | 14:30 | 25067.00 | 14:45 | 25036.50 | opposite cross | −30.50 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 14:15 | 25039.00 | 14:30 | 25067.00 | opposite cross | −28.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | long | 10:30 | 25003.75 | 14:15 | 25039.00 | opposite cross | 35.25 |
| 2026-03-10 | short | 10:00 | 24964.75 | 10:30 | 25003.75 | opposite cross | −39.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | long | 09:45 | 25029.25 | 10:00 | 24964.75 | opposite cross | −64.50 |
| 2026-03-09 | long | 09:45 | 24382.25 | 15:59 | 24992.25 | end of day 15:59 | 610.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | short | 09:45 | 24681.25 | 15:59 | 24667.75 | end of day 15:59 | 13.50 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 11:15 | 24985.75 | 15:59 | 25047.75 | end of day 15:59 | −62.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 11:00 | 25080.25 | 11:15 | 24985.75 | opposite cross | −94.50 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 10:30 | 25012.00 | 11:00 | 25080.25 | opposite cross | −68.25 |
| 2026-03-05 | long | 10:00 | 25185.25 | 10:30 | 25012.00 | opposite cross | −173.25 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 09:45 | 25059.50 | 10:00 | 25185.25 | opposite cross | −125.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | long | 09:45 | 24849.25 | 15:59 | 25120.00 | end of day 15:59 | 270.75 |
| 2026-03-03 | long | 11:30 | 24618.00 | 15:59 | 24757.25 | end of day 15:59 | 139.25 |
| 2026-03-03 | short | 09:45 | 24532.00 | 11:30 | 24618.00 | opposite cross | −86.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | 09:45 | 24836.00 | 15:59 | 25023.25 | end of day 15:59 | 187.25 |
| 2026-02-27 | short | 15:45 | 24935.25 | 15:59 | 24998.25 | end of day 15:59 | −63.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 15:15 | 24968.50 | 15:45 | 24935.25 | opposite cross | −33.25 |
| 2026-02-27 | short | 11:00 | 24983.50 | 15:15 | 24968.50 | opposite cross | 15.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | long | 10:45 | 24999.25 | 11:00 | 24983.50 | opposite cross | −15.75 |
| 2026-02-27 | short | 09:45 | 24845.25 | 10:45 | 24999.25 | opposite cross | −154.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | short | 09:45 | 25265.25 | 15:59 | 25083.25 | end of day 15:59 | 182.00 |
| 2026-02-25 | long | 09:45 | 25272.25 | 15:59 | 25384.50 | end of day 15:59 | 112.25 |
| 2026-02-24 | long | 09:45 | 24911.25 | 15:59 | 25030.00 | end of day 15:59 | 118.75 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | 10:15 | 24874.50 | 15:59 | 24768.00 | end of day 15:59 | 106.50 |
| 2026-02-23 | long | 10:00 | 24912.75 | 10:15 | 24874.50 | opposite cross | −38.25 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | 09:45 | 24881.00 | 10:00 | 24912.75 | opposite cross | −31.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | long | 09:45 | 24926.00 | 15:59 | 25074.75 | end of day 15:59 | 148.75 |
| 2026-02-19 | short | 09:45 | 24847.00 | 15:59 | 24863.50 | end of day 15:59 | −16.50 |
| 2026-02-18 | short | 14:45 | 24926.00 | 15:59 | 24957.50 | end of day 15:59 | −31.50 |
| 2026-02-18 | long | 10:00 | 24941.00 | 14:45 | 24926.00 | opposite cross | −15.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | short | 09:45 | 24850.75 | 10:00 | 24941.00 | opposite cross | −90.25 |
| 2026-02-17 | long | 11:15 | 24773.25 | 15:59 | 24777.00 | end of day 15:59 | 3.75 |
| 2026-02-17 | short | 10:00 | 24483.75 | 11:15 | 24773.25 | opposite cross | −289.50 |
| 2026-02-17 | long | 09:45 | 24701.25 | 10:00 | 24483.75 | opposite cross | −217.50 |
| 2026-02-16 | short | 09:45 | 24723.50 | 12:59 | 24747.25 | early close | −23.75 |
| 2026-02-13 | short | 15:30 | 24766.00 | 15:59 | 24802.00 | end of day 15:59 | −36.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | long | 10:15 | 24759.75 | 15:30 | 24766.00 | opposite cross | 6.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the 50 SMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 710 long trades, won 35.9% of them and made 3,477.00 points ($69,540 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 4,375.00 points on 1,564 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,431.00 points on 396 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,786.75 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the 50 SMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 693 short trades, won 29.7% of them and made 509.75 points ($25,488 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -8.00 points on 1,620 trades on the 5-minute chart, -345.25 points on 343 trades on the 1-hour chart and -480.75 points on 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,382 trades, won 32.1% of them and finished 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Price crosses SMA 50 on ES futures?
The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy won 32.0% of its 1,417 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 23.8% of 3,267 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.5% of 758 trades on the 1-hour chart and 32.4% of 37 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy made 5,469.50 points on 3,115 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,332.25 points on 1,382 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,432.00 points on 715 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,512.75 points on 45 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell price crossing the 50 SMA signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 3,477.00 points on 710 trades (35.9% won) and the short trades made -144.75 points on 672 trades (28.1% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy take on NQ in two years?
The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 3,115 on the 5-minute chart, 715 on the 1-hour chart and 45 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy on NQ?
The price crossing the 50 SMA strategy had a max drawdown of 4,029.75 points ($80,595 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,367.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,411.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 5,558.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,417 trades, won 32.0% of them and made 1,652.00 points ($82,600 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the price crossing the 50 SMA strategy took 1,382 trades, won 32.1% of them and made 3,332.25 points ($66,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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