Strategy library · Baselines
Random entries backtest on NQ and ES futures
Random entries
Also called: random entry benchmark, coin flip trading, random trading baseline
What happens if you enter NQ futures in a random direction?
What it is
This baseline picks a coin-flip direction for the same number of trades and the same average hold as the median strategy on that timeframe, over 1,000 random seeds. Each trade is closed after the same hold time.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the random entries strategy took 631 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 52.6% of them and finished 98.50 points ($1,970 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 311 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 54.7% and made -1,068.25 points (-$21,365 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the random entries strategy took 660 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 49.1% of them and finished 6.25 points ($313 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the random entries strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Coin-flip direction, same number of trades and average hold as the median strategy on that timeframe, 1,000 seeds. Exit: Same hold time.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1564 | 49.5% | 0.12 | 1.004 | 183.25 | $3,665 | 3,447.00 | 1537 | 49.2% | −0.01 | 0.998 | −14.75 | −$737 | 567.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 772 | 53.6% | — | — | 192.00 | $3,840 | 2,401.50 | 792 | 51.6% | — | — | 36.00 | $1,800 | 374.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 792 | 45.5% | — | — | −8.75 | −$175 | 2,698.50 | 745 | 46.6% | — | — | −50.75 | −$2,537 | 507.50 |
| 15 minute | 631 | 52.6% | 0.16 | 1.004 | 98.50 | $1,970 | 2,079.25 | 660 | 49.1% | 0.01 | 1.001 | 6.25 | $313 | 654.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 311 | 54.7% | — | — | −1,068.25 | −$21,365 | 2,567.50 | 321 | 50.2% | — | — | −303.25 | −$15,162 | 577.00 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 320 | 50.6% | — | — | 1,166.75 | $23,335 | 1,053.50 | 339 | 48.1% | — | — | 309.50 | $15,475 | 246.50 |
| 1 hour | 245 | 46.5% | −0.01 | 1.000 | −2.25 | −$45 | 2,148.50 | 244 | 52.1% | −0.02 | 0.998 | −4.25 | −$212 | 315.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 122 | 51.6% | — | — | 2,162.50 | $43,250 | 946.75 | 134 | 59.0% | — | — | 277.00 | $13,850 | 202.75 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 123 | 41.5% | — | — | −2,164.75 | −$43,295 | 2,658.25 | 110 | 43.6% | — | — | −281.25 | −$14,062 | 368.00 |
| Daily | 22 | 31.8% | −10.47 | 0.976 | −230.25 | −$4,605 | 4,220.75 | 20 | 55.0% | −0.35 | 0.996 | −7.00 | −$350 | 676.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 12 | 41.7% | — | — | 3,007.25 | $60,145 | 3,712.00 | 12 | 75.0% | — | — | 775.50 | $38,775 | 379.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 10 | 20.0% | — | — | −3,237.50 | −$64,750 | 4,038.25 | 8 | 25.0% | — | — | −782.50 | −$39,125 | 1,119.25 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 321 | −303.25 |
| Short | 339 | 309.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | 6.75 |
| 2024-09 | 27 | 207.00 |
| 2024-10 | 27 | −53.25 |
| 2024-11 | 28 | −26.25 |
| 2024-12 | 27 | −109.00 |
| 2025-01 | 25 | 65.25 |
| 2025-02 | 22 | 111.50 |
| 2025-03 | 29 | 213.75 |
| 2025-04 | 26 | −83.50 |
| 2025-05 | 26 | −93.00 |
| 2025-06 | 30 | −25.25 |
| 2025-07 | 32 | 46.50 |
| 2025-08 | 30 | 160.50 |
| 2025-09 | 22 | 112.75 |
| 2025-10 | 31 | −231.50 |
| 2025-11 | 24 | −0.50 |
| 2025-12 | 29 | 86.25 |
| 2026-01 | 23 | 80.50 |
| 2026-02 | 29 | 76.75 |
| 2026-03 | 34 | −121.75 |
| 2026-04 | 26 | 67.75 |
| 2026-05 | 30 | −37.00 |
| 2026-06 | 30 | −451.25 |
| 2026-07 | 28 | 100.00 |
| 2026-08 | 22 | −96.75 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute660 trades
Pick any of the 660 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (660), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | short | 12:30 | 7000.50 | 14:45 | 6999.00 | time exit | 1.50 |
| 2026-01-27 | long | 14:00 | 7013.50 | 15:59 | 7008.75 | end of day 15:59 | −4.75 |
| 2026-01-27 | short | 10:45 | 7011.50 | 13:00 | 7007.00 | time exit | 4.50 |
| 2026-01-26 | long | 12:15 | 6988.75 | 14:30 | 6992.00 | time exit | 3.25 |
| 2026-01-22 | long | 11:45 | 6958.00 | 14:00 | 6957.00 | time exit | −1.00 |
| 2026-01-21 | long | 15:15 | 6928.50 | 15:59 | 6911.00 | end of day 15:59 | −17.50 |
| 2026-01-21 | long | 12:45 | 6849.00 | 15:00 | 6942.50 | time exit | 93.50 |
| 2026-01-20 | long | 14:00 | 6843.75 | 15:59 | 6833.75 | end of day 15:59 | −10.00 |
| 2026-01-19 | short | 10:00 | 6899.75 | 12:15 | 6911.75 | time exit | −12.00 |
| 2026-01-16 | short | 13:45 | 6988.75 | 15:59 | 6976.50 | end of day 15:59 | 12.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | short | 09:45 | 6990.75 | 12:00 | 6986.75 | time exit | 4.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | short | 14:15 | 7006.00 | 15:59 | 6984.75 | end of day 15:59 | 21.25 |
| 2026-01-15 | short | 10:45 | 7001.50 | 13:00 | 7002.25 | time exit | −0.75 |
| 2026-01-13 | short | 13:30 | 6992.00 | 15:45 | 6986.00 | time exit | 6.00 |
| 2026-01-12 | short | 13:15 | 7013.50 | 15:30 | 7017.25 | time exit | −3.75 |
| 2026-01-08 | short | 11:15 | 6955.00 | 13:30 | 6961.25 | time exit | −6.25 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 14:00 | 6995.25 | 15:59 | 6963.00 | end of day 15:59 | −32.25 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 10:30 | 6983.75 | 12:45 | 7004.50 | time exit | 20.75 |
| 2026-01-06 | long | 11:30 | 6958.00 | 13:45 | 6982.00 | time exit | 24.00 |
| 2026-01-05 | short | 10:45 | 6949.50 | 13:00 | 6954.75 | time exit | −5.25 |
| 2026-01-02 | short | 14:15 | 6892.50 | 15:59 | 6900.25 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2026-01-02 | long | 11:15 | 6887.50 | 13:30 | 6878.50 | time exit | −9.00 |
| 2025-12-31 | short | 13:30 | 6926.25 | 15:45 | 6906.50 | time exit | 19.75 |
| 2025-12-31 | long | 11:15 | 6917.25 | 13:30 | 6926.25 | time exit | 9.00 |
| 2025-12-30 | long | 14:15 | 6953.75 | 15:59 | 6945.25 | end of day 15:59 | −8.50 |
| 2025-12-30 | long | 10:30 | 6944.25 | 12:45 | 6948.75 | time exit | 4.50 |
| 2025-12-29 | short | 14:45 | 6955.00 | 15:59 | 6955.00 | end of day 15:59 | −0.00 |
| 2025-12-29 | short | 12:00 | 6946.50 | 14:15 | 6945.75 | time exit | 0.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | short | 12:45 | 6973.00 | 15:00 | 6978.00 | time exit | −5.00 |
| 2025-12-24 | long | 12:45 | 6982.75 | 13:14 | 6980.00 | early close | −2.75 |
| 2025-12-23 | long | 15:00 | 6960.25 | 15:59 | 6960.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.00 |
| 2025-12-23 | long | 11:00 | 6945.00 | 13:15 | 6955.25 | time exit | 10.25 |
| 2025-12-22 | long | 12:15 | 6930.75 | 14:30 | 6929.75 | time exit | −1.00 |
| 2025-12-19 | short | 11:30 | 6884.75 | 13:45 | 6886.00 | time exit | −1.25 |
| 2025-12-17 | short | 11:15 | 6801.25 | 13:30 | 6796.75 | time exit | 4.50 |
| 2025-12-16 | short | 13:15 | 6827.75 | 15:30 | 6859.25 | time exit | −31.50 |
| 2025-12-16 | long | 10:45 | 6849.75 | 13:00 | 6823.50 | time exit | −26.25 |
| 2025-12-15 | short | 12:00 | 6822.00 | 14:15 | 6821.50 | time exit | 0.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | long | 15:15 | 6831.75 | 15:59 | 6831.25 | end of day 15:59 | −0.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | short | 09:45 | 6893.75 | 12:00 | 6819.25 | time exit | 74.50 |
| 2025-12-11 | long | 11:30 | 6862.75 | 13:45 | 6902.00 | time exit | 39.25 |
| 2025-12-10 | short | 11:30 | 6855.00 | 13:45 | 6844.50 | time exit | 10.50 |
| 2025-12-08 | long | 12:45 | 6848.25 | 15:00 | 6843.00 | time exit | −5.25 |
| 2025-12-05 | long | 15:30 | 6880.75 | 15:59 | 6876.75 | end of day 15:59 | −4.00 |
| 2025-12-04 | long | 11:30 | 6856.25 | 13:45 | 6864.25 | time exit | 8.00 |
| 2025-12-03 | long | 13:45 | 6868.50 | 15:59 | 6862.50 | end of day 15:59 | −6.00 |
| 2025-12-03 | short | 10:15 | 6836.00 | 12:30 | 6859.50 | time exit | −23.50 |
| 2025-12-02 | short | 15:30 | 6849.50 | 15:59 | 6839.25 | end of day 15:59 | 10.25 |
| 2025-12-02 | short | 11:00 | 6860.25 | 13:15 | 6832.50 | time exit | 27.75 |
| 2025-12-01 | long | 15:00 | 6827.50 | 15:59 | 6829.00 | end of day 15:59 | 1.50 |
Questions and answers
How did the random entries do on NQ futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the random entries strategy on the 15-minute chart took 631 trades, won 52.6% of them and finished 98.50 points ($1,970 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How did the random entries do on ES futures?
On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the random entries strategy on the 15-minute chart took 660 trades, won 49.1% of them and finished 6.25 points ($313 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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