Strategy library · Popular combos
Supertrend with ADX above 25 backtest on NQ and ES futures
Supertrend with ADX above 25
Also called: Supertrend ADX strategy, Supertrend with trend strength filter, Supertrend and ADX, buy when Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while ADX 14 is above 25, short when Supertrend (10, 3) flips down while ADX 14 is above 25
What happens if you buy NQ every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while ADX 14 is above 25?
What it is
This is the Supertrend (10, 3) flip strategy taken only while the ADX(14) is above 25. It exits on the opposite flip.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.3% of them and finished -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 96 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 43.8% and made -1,146.50 points (-$22,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 178 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished 285.75 points ($14,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: TR04 flips taken only while ADX(14) is above 25. Exit: Opposite flip.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 308 | 41.6% | −7.86 | 0.849 | −2,420.25 | −$48,405 | 2,560.75 | 321 | 43.3% | 2.19 | 1.239 | 702.50 | $35,125 | 266.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 159 | 46.5% | — | — | −120.00 | −$2,400 | 1,262.00 | 159 | 49.7% | — | — | 287.25 | $14,363 | 222.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 149 | 36.2% | — | — | −2,300.25 | −$46,005 | 2,338.00 | 162 | 37.0% | — | — | 415.25 | $20,763 | 228.25 |
| 15 minute | 188 | 46.3% | −2.29 | 0.956 | −431.00 | −$8,620 | 2,260.00 | 178 | 46.1% | 1.61 | 1.137 | 285.75 | $14,288 | 296.00 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 96 | 43.8% | — | — | −1,146.50 | −$22,930 | 1,552.75 | 90 | 40.0% | — | — | −398.00 | −$19,900 | 463.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 92 | 48.9% | — | — | 715.50 | $14,310 | 985.50 | 88 | 52.3% | — | — | 683.75 | $34,188 | 104.25 |
| 1 hour | 83 | 45.8% | −10.00 | 0.846 | −830.25 | −$16,605 | 1,530.25 | 74 | 48.7% | 0.56 | 1.056 | 41.25 | $2,063 | 186.25 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 44 | 38.6% | — | — | −1,331.25 | −$26,625 | 1,331.25 | 38 | 52.6% | — | — | 129.50 | $6,475 | 136.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 39 | 53.9% | — | — | 501.00 | $10,020 | 580.50 | 36 | 44.4% | — | — | −88.25 | −$4,412 | 154.75 |
| Daily | 5 | 60.0% | 1,357.60 | 5.988 | 6,788.00 | $135,760 | 736.00 | 7 | 42.9% | 70.82 | 1.479 | 495.75 | $24,788 | 461.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 3 | 100.0% | — | — | 8,148.75 | $162,975 | 0.00 | 4 | 50.0% | — | — | 688.50 | $34,425 | 250.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 2 | 0.0% | — | — | −1,360.75 | −$27,215 | 1,360.75 | 3 | 33.3% | — | — | −192.75 | −$9,637 | 547.50 |
NQ Daily: small sample (5 trades). ES Daily: small sample (7 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 96 | −1,146.50 |
| Short | 92 | 715.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 8 | 346.00 |
| 2024-11 | 10 | 153.00 |
| 2024-12 | 5 | −54.75 |
| 2025-01 | 7 | −296.50 |
| 2025-02 | 6 | 982.00 |
| 2025-03 | 12 | −154.75 |
| 2025-04 | 8 | 798.00 |
| 2025-05 | 11 | −464.00 |
| 2025-06 | 7 | −55.75 |
| 2025-07 | 7 | 275.75 |
| 2025-08 | 8 | −82.50 |
| 2025-09 | 9 | −327.50 |
| 2025-10 | 8 | 2.50 |
| 2025-11 | 9 | −209.25 |
| 2025-12 | 9 | −5.75 |
| 2026-01 | 6 | −114.50 |
| 2026-02 | 4 | 267.25 |
| 2026-03 | 5 | 73.50 |
| 2026-04 | 7 | −78.25 |
| 2026-05 | 6 | −129.50 |
| 2026-06 | 11 | −613.75 |
| 2026-07 | 5 | −194.00 |
| 2026-08 | 7 | −8.75 |
| 2026-09 | 11 | −513.00 |
| 2026-10 | 2 | −26.50 |
Every trade, NQ 15 minute188 trades
Pick any of the 188 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (188), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-04 | long | 13:15 | 20480.50 | 15:59 | 20397.50 | end of day 15:59 | −83.00 |
| 2025-03-03 | short | 09:45 | 20970.00 | 15:59 | 20473.00 | end of day 15:59 | 497.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | long | 10:15 | 20692.50 | 15:59 | 20919.75 | end of day 15:59 | 227.25 |
| 2025-02-27 | short | 09:45 | 21192.25 | 15:59 | 20608.25 | end of day 15:59 | 584.00 |
| 2025-02-25 | short | 09:45 | 21313.25 | 15:59 | 21149.75 | end of day 15:59 | 163.50 |
| 2025-02-12 | long | 10:00 | 21677.00 | 15:59 | 21802.00 | end of day 15:59 | 125.00 |
| 2025-02-11 | short | 12:15 | 21731.50 | 15:59 | 21791.00 | end of day 15:59 | −59.50 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 09:45 | 21789.75 | 12:15 | 21731.50 | opposite flip | −58.25 |
| 2025-01-31 | short | 13:30 | 21815.00 | 15:59 | 21580.75 | end of day 15:59 | 234.25 |
| 2025-01-29 | long | 15:30 | 21585.50 | 15:59 | 21530.25 | end of day 15:59 | −55.25 |
| 2025-01-23 | long | 11:00 | 21932.00 | 15:59 | 22041.75 | end of day 15:59 | 109.75 |
| 2025-01-10 | long | 14:00 | 21168.25 | 15:59 | 21015.50 | end of day 15:59 | −152.75 |
| 2025-01-08 | short | 12:30 | 21190.75 | 15:59 | 21360.25 | end of day 15:59 | −169.50 |
| 2025-01-08 | long | 11:45 | 21410.00 | 12:30 | 21190.75 | opposite flip | −219.25 |
| 2025-01-06 | short | 14:00 | 21706.75 | 15:59 | 21750.50 | end of day 15:59 | −43.75 |
| 2024-12-30 | long | 12:15 | 21474.25 | 15:59 | 21411.75 | end of day 15:59 | −62.50 |
| 2024-12-26 | long | 11:15 | 22012.25 | 15:59 | 22007.25 | end of day 15:59 | −5.00 |
| 2024-12-17 | long | 11:45 | 22074.50 | 15:59 | 22015.75 | end of day 15:59 | −58.75 |
| 2024-12-13 | short | 10:30 | 21803.25 | 15:59 | 21797.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.75 |
| 2024-12-10 | short | 11:30 | 21473.75 | 15:59 | 21408.00 | end of day 15:59 | 65.75 |
| 2024-11-29 | long | 09:45 | 20874.75 | 13:14 | 20991.25 | early close | 116.50 |
| 2024-11-27 | long | 14:15 | 20821.00 | 15:59 | 20816.25 | end of day 15:59 | −4.75 |
| 2024-11-21 | short | 09:45 | 20695.25 | 12:45 | 20838.75 | opposite flip | −143.50 |
| 2024-11-20 | long | 12:00 | 20688.50 | 15:59 | 20752.25 | end of day 15:59 | 63.75 |
| 2024-11-19 | long | 10:30 | 20602.25 | 15:59 | 20765.25 | end of day 15:59 | 163.00 |
| 2024-11-18 | long | 10:15 | 20598.75 | 14:30 | 20600.00 | opposite flip | 1.25 |
| 2024-11-14 | short | 09:45 | 21082.50 | 15:59 | 21008.50 | end of day 15:59 | 74.00 |
| 2024-11-08 | long | 10:00 | 21207.00 | 15:59 | 21234.00 | end of day 15:59 | 27.00 |
| 2024-11-04 | short | 12:00 | 20077.50 | 15:59 | 20085.25 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2024-11-04 | long | 11:15 | 20214.00 | 12:00 | 20077.50 | opposite flip | −136.50 |
| 2024-10-31 | short | 09:45 | 20260.00 | 15:59 | 20011.25 | end of day 15:59 | 248.75 |
| 2024-10-29 | long | 10:45 | 20581.75 | 15:59 | 20695.00 | end of day 15:59 | 113.25 |
| 2024-10-25 | short | 13:30 | 20564.50 | 15:59 | 20495.00 | end of day 15:59 | 69.50 |
| 2024-10-24 | short | 09:45 | 20342.00 | 15:59 | 20380.00 | end of day 15:59 | −38.00 |
| 2024-10-21 | short | 10:45 | 20435.00 | 15:59 | 20520.50 | end of day 15:59 | −85.50 |
| 2024-10-17 | short | 09:45 | 20448.00 | 15:59 | 20364.00 | end of day 15:59 | 84.00 |
| 2024-10-14 | short | 11:00 | 20563.25 | 15:59 | 20621.75 | end of day 15:59 | −58.50 |
| 2024-10-11 | long | 10:15 | 20437.25 | 15:59 | 20449.75 | end of day 15:59 | 12.50 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while ADX 14 is above 25?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 96 long trades, won 43.8% of them and made -1,146.50 points (-$22,930 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -120.00 points on 159 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,331.25 points on 44 trades on the 1-hour chart and 8,148.75 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time Supertrend (10, 3) flips down while ADX 14 is above 25?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 88 short trades, won 52.3% of them and made 683.75 points ($34,188 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 415.25 points on 162 trades on the 5-minute chart, -88.25 points on 36 trades on the 1-hour chart and -192.75 points on 3 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on the 15-minute chart took 188 trades, won 46.3% of them and finished -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Supertrend with ADX above 25 on ES futures?
The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy won 46.1% of its 178 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 43.3% of 321 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.7% of 74 trades on the 1-hour chart and 42.9% of 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy made -2,420.25 points on 308 trades on the 5-minute chart, -431.00 points on 188 trades on the 15-minute chart, -830.25 points on 83 trades on the 1-hour chart and 6,788.00 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Supertrend with ADX above 25 signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,146.50 points on 96 trades (43.8% won) and the short trades made 715.50 points on 92 trades (48.9% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 308 on the 5-minute chart, 83 on the 1-hour chart and 5 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy on NQ?
The Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy had a max drawdown of 2,260.00 points ($45,200 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,560.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,530.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 736.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 178 trades, won 46.1% of them and made 285.75 points ($14,288 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Supertrend with ADX above 25 strategy took 188 trades, won 46.3% of them and made -431.00 points (-$8,620 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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