Strategy library · Mean reversion and bands
Three down closes in a row backtest on NQ and ES futures
Three down closes in a row
Also called: three lower closes strategy, consecutive down closes, 3 bar pullback strategy, buy when price makes three lower closes in a row, short when price makes three higher closes in a row
What happens if you buy NQ every time price makes three lower closes in a row?
What it is
This strategy goes long after 3 lower closes in a row and short after 3 higher closes in a row. It exits on the first close in the trade's favor.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades on the 1-hour chart, won 64.4% of them and finished 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 195 long trades on the 1-hour chart won 70.8% and made 1,937.75 points ($38,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three down closes in a row strategy took 437 trades on the 1-hour chart, won 61.6% of them and finished 227.00 points ($11,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the three down closes in a row strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long after 3 lower closes; short after 3 higher closes. Exit: First close in the trade's favour.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 1 hour | 433 | 64.4% | 6.89 | 1.217 | 2,982.50 | $59,650 | 2,206.75 | 437 | 61.6% | 0.52 | 1.074 | 227.00 | $11,350 | 602.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 195 | 70.8% | — | — | 1,937.75 | $38,755 | 964.75 | 202 | 68.3% | — | — | 293.00 | $14,650 | 424.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 238 | 59.2% | — | — | 1,044.75 | $20,895 | 2,069.50 | 235 | 55.7% | — | — | −66.00 | −$3,300 | 419.50 |
| Daily | 59 | 62.7% | 16.83 | 1.125 | 992.75 | $19,855 | 2,712.00 | 59 | 61.0% | 2.10 | 1.080 | 124.00 | $6,200 | 574.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 25 | 68.0% | — | — | 3,326.75 | $66,535 | 887.00 | 23 | 69.6% | — | — | 869.75 | $43,488 | 58.50 |
| Daily · shorts only | 34 | 58.8% | — | — | −2,334.00 | −$46,680 | 4,458.00 | 36 | 55.6% | — | — | −745.75 | −$37,287 | 872.25 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 1 hour: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 202 | 293.00 |
| Short | 235 | −66.00 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 3 | −0.25 |
| 2024-09 | 15 | −26.00 |
| 2024-10 | 17 | −35.00 |
| 2024-11 | 21 | 11.25 |
| 2024-12 | 19 | −299.25 |
| 2025-01 | 19 | −5.25 |
| 2025-02 | 16 | 7.50 |
| 2025-03 | 17 | −76.75 |
| 2025-04 | 18 | −27.25 |
| 2025-05 | 19 | −75.25 |
| 2025-06 | 18 | 56.75 |
| 2025-07 | 16 | −28.25 |
| 2025-08 | 17 | 56.25 |
| 2025-09 | 24 | 127.25 |
| 2025-10 | 21 | −21.00 |
| 2025-11 | 17 | −57.75 |
| 2025-12 | 17 | −15.00 |
| 2026-01 | 15 | −34.00 |
| 2026-02 | 16 | −35.25 |
| 2026-03 | 22 | 299.75 |
| 2026-04 | 17 | 32.25 |
| 2026-05 | 16 | 158.00 |
| 2026-06 | 17 | 18.00 |
| 2026-07 | 27 | 165.50 |
| 2026-08 | 13 | 30.75 |
Every trade, ES 1 hour437 trades
Pick any of the 437 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (437), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-22 | short | 10:00 | 6122.25 | 13:00 | 6130.50 | close in favour | −8.25 |
| 2025-01-21 | short | 14:00 | 6083.75 | 15:00 | 6079.25 | close in favour | 4.50 |
| 2025-01-17 | short | 10:00 | 6020.25 | 14:00 | 6043.75 | close in favour | −23.50 |
| 2025-01-15 | short | 15:00 | 5995.75 | 15:59 | 5988.50 | end of day 15:59 | 7.25 |
| 2025-01-14 | long | 12:00 | 5846.75 | 13:00 | 5861.25 | close in favour | 14.50 |
| 2025-01-13 | short | 15:00 | 5865.50 | 15:59 | 5875.25 | end of day 15:59 | −9.75 |
| 2025-01-10 | long | 11:00 | 5871.25 | 13:00 | 5875.75 | close in favour | 4.50 |
| 2025-01-07 | long | 12:00 | 5973.75 | 13:00 | 5976.00 | close in favour | 2.25 |
| 2025-01-06 | long | 15:00 | 6011.75 | 15:59 | 6022.50 | end of day 15:59 | 10.75 |
| 2025-01-06 | short | 10:00 | 6049.25 | 13:00 | 6047.25 | close in favour | 2.00 |
| 2025-01-03 | short | 12:00 | 5974.75 | 15:59 | 5988.00 | end of day 15:59 | −13.25 |
| 2025-01-02 | long | 10:00 | 5974.75 | 12:00 | 5951.25 | close in favour | −23.50 |
| 2024-12-30 | short | 13:00 | 5987.00 | 15:00 | 5984.25 | close in favour | 2.75 |
| 2024-12-30 | long | 10:00 | 5927.25 | 11:00 | 5945.25 | close in favour | 18.00 |
| 2024-12-27 | long | 10:00 | 6044.75 | 14:00 | 6015.50 | close in favour | −29.25 |
| 2024-12-26 | short | 12:00 | 6100.75 | 13:00 | 6092.00 | close in favour | 8.75 |
| 2024-12-24 | short | 10:00 | 6059.25 | 12:00 | 6077.00 | close in favour | −17.75 |
| 2024-12-23 | short | 14:00 | 6027.00 | 15:00 | 6019.25 | close in favour | 7.75 |
| 2024-12-20 | short | 10:00 | 5910.50 | 14:00 | 6013.25 | close in favour | −102.75 |
| 2024-12-18 | long | 14:00 | 6136.25 | 15:59 | 5939.25 | end of day 15:59 | −197.00 |
| 2024-12-17 | long | 15:00 | 6119.75 | 15:59 | 6127.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2024-12-16 | short | 13:00 | 6085.50 | 15:00 | 6087.75 | close in favour | −2.25 |
| 2024-12-13 | long | 11:00 | 6048.00 | 12:00 | 6051.25 | close in favour | 3.25 |
| 2024-12-11 | short | 11:00 | 6085.25 | 14:00 | 6096.00 | close in favour | −10.75 |
| 2024-12-10 | long | 13:00 | 6061.75 | 15:59 | 6047.50 | end of day 15:59 | −14.25 |
| 2024-12-09 | long | 11:00 | 6072.75 | 12:00 | 6078.75 | close in favour | 6.00 |
| 2024-12-06 | long | 13:00 | 6093.50 | 14:00 | 6100.50 | close in favour | 7.00 |
| 2024-12-06 | short | 10:00 | 6109.75 | 11:00 | 6106.75 | close in favour | 3.00 |
| 2024-12-04 | short | 13:00 | 6087.50 | 14:00 | 6083.00 | close in favour | 4.50 |
| 2024-12-03 | long | 10:00 | 6057.50 | 13:00 | 6061.50 | close in favour | 4.00 |
| 2024-12-02 | short | 10:00 | 6054.00 | 11:00 | 6052.25 | close in favour | 1.75 |
| 2024-11-29 | short | 12:00 | 6053.50 | 13:00 | 6051.75 | close in favour | 1.75 |
| 2024-11-28 | short | 10:00 | 6028.00 | 12:00 | 6028.75 | close in favour | −0.75 |
| 2024-11-27 | long | 12:00 | 6009.75 | 13:00 | 6011.50 | close in favour | 1.75 |
| 2024-11-26 | short | 12:00 | 6028.25 | 15:00 | 6030.75 | close in favour | −2.50 |
| 2024-11-25 | long | 12:00 | 6003.00 | 14:00 | 6003.75 | close in favour | 0.75 |
| 2024-11-21 | short | 13:00 | 5971.25 | 15:59 | 5970.00 | end of day 15:59 | 1.25 |
| 2024-11-20 | long | 11:00 | 5908.25 | 12:00 | 5917.75 | close in favour | 9.50 |
| 2024-11-19 | short | 12:00 | 5925.00 | 15:00 | 5932.25 | close in favour | −7.25 |
| 2024-11-18 | short | 13:00 | 5924.25 | 14:00 | 5921.00 | close in favour | 3.25 |
| 2024-11-15 | long | 11:00 | 5903.25 | 15:00 | 5888.25 | close in favour | −15.00 |
| 2024-11-14 | long | 10:00 | 6005.50 | 15:00 | 5995.25 | close in favour | −10.25 |
| 2024-11-13 | short | 13:00 | 6034.25 | 14:00 | 6032.25 | close in favour | 2.00 |
| 2024-11-12 | long | 13:00 | 5990.25 | 14:00 | 6017.75 | close in favour | 27.50 |
| 2024-11-12 | short | 10:00 | 6032.75 | 11:00 | 6015.50 | close in favour | 17.25 |
| 2024-11-08 | short | 12:00 | 6023.00 | 15:00 | 6033.00 | close in favour | −10.00 |
| 2024-11-07 | short | 12:00 | 5998.00 | 14:00 | 5994.00 | close in favour | 4.00 |
| 2024-11-06 | short | 13:00 | 5940.50 | 15:59 | 5957.50 | end of day 15:59 | −17.00 |
| 2024-11-05 | short | 12:00 | 5801.00 | 14:00 | 5798.75 | close in favour | 2.25 |
| 2024-11-04 | long | 10:00 | 5760.75 | 11:00 | 5762.50 | close in favour | 1.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price makes three lower closes in a row?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 1-hour chart, the three down closes in a row strategy took 195 long trades, won 70.8% of them and made 1,937.75 points ($38,755 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,326.75 points on 25 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price makes three higher closes in a row?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 1-hour chart, the three down closes in a row strategy took 235 short trades, won 55.7% of them and made -66.00 points (-$3,300 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -745.75 points on 36 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the three down closes in a row strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy on the 1-hour chart took 433 trades, won 64.4% of them and finished 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Three down closes in a row on ES futures?
The three down closes in a row strategy won 61.6% of its 437 trades on the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 61.0% of 59 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the three down closes in a row strategy better on the 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy made 2,982.50 points on 433 trades on the 1-hour chart and 992.75 points on 59 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell three down closes in a row signals on NQ?
On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,937.75 points on 195 trades (70.8% won) and the short trades made 1,044.75 points on 238 trades (59.2% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the three down closes in a row strategy take on NQ in two years?
The three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 59 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the three down closes in a row strategy on NQ?
The three down closes in a row strategy had a max drawdown of 2,206.75 points ($44,135 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,712.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the three down closes in a row strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the three down closes in a row strategy took 437 trades, won 61.6% of them and made 227.00 points ($11,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the three down closes in a row strategy took 433 trades, won 64.4% of them and made 2,982.50 points ($59,650 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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