Strategy library · Volume
Volume spike candle backtest on NQ and ES futures
Volume spike candle
Also called: volume spike strategy, high volume bar strategy, volume surge candle, buy when an up bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open), short when a down bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)
What happens if you buy NQ every time an up bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)?
What it is
A volume spike is a bar with at least 2x the 20-bar average volume. This strategy trades the direction of that bar at the next open, with the stop beyond the bar and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.9% of them and finished 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 486 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 39.7% and made 2,665.25 points ($53,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,185 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.5% of them and finished 868.00 points ($43,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the volume spike candle strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: A bar with at least 2x the 20-bar average volume: trade its direction at the next open. Exit: Stop beyond the bar, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1363 | 36.5% | 3.04 | 1.084 | 4,144.75 | $82,895 | 3,448.75 | 1635 | 33.3% | −0.12 | 0.982 | −190.50 | −$9,525 | 689.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 636 | 37.0% | — | — | 1,681.00 | $33,620 | 1,678.75 | 719 | 32.8% | — | — | −312.25 | −$15,612 | 459.00 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 727 | 36.2% | — | — | 2,463.75 | $49,275 | 3,022.75 | 916 | 33.7% | — | — | 121.75 | $6,088 | 396.50 |
| 15 minute | 1002 | 38.9% | 4.56 | 1.096 | 4,566.00 | $91,320 | 2,912.00 | 1185 | 38.5% | 0.73 | 1.084 | 868.00 | $43,400 | 564.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 486 | 39.7% | — | — | 2,665.25 | $53,305 | 1,596.25 | 566 | 39.6% | — | — | 640.00 | $32,000 | 342.75 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 516 | 38.2% | — | — | 1,900.75 | $38,015 | 1,973.50 | 619 | 37.5% | — | — | 228.00 | $11,400 | 579.75 |
| 1 hour | 881 | 45.5% | 5.01 | 1.095 | 4,413.75 | $88,275 | 4,311.50 | 979 | 44.6% | 0.67 | 1.065 | 655.75 | $32,788 | 620.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 451 | 48.6% | — | — | 2,017.25 | $40,345 | 3,011.00 | 490 | 47.4% | — | — | 358.00 | $17,900 | 484.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 430 | 42.3% | — | — | 2,396.50 | $47,930 | 2,359.75 | 489 | 41.9% | — | — | 297.75 | $14,888 | 613.00 |
| Daily | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 100.0% | 104.50 | — | 104.50 | $5,225 | 0.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daily · shorts only | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | — | 104.50 | $5,225 | 0.00 |
NQ Daily: no trades in the window (0 trades). ES Daily: small sample (1 trade).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 636 | 1,681.00 |
| Short | 727 | 2,463.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 52 | 329.00 |
| 2024-11 | 52 | 518.00 |
| 2024-12 | 55 | 824.25 |
| 2025-01 | 50 | 468.75 |
| 2025-02 | 60 | 962.50 |
| 2025-03 | 61 | 678.50 |
| 2025-04 | 63 | 555.25 |
| 2025-05 | 60 | −499.00 |
| 2025-06 | 64 | −801.25 |
| 2025-07 | 62 | 559.25 |
| 2025-08 | 64 | −410.50 |
| 2025-09 | 53 | −469.50 |
| 2025-10 | 68 | 1,179.75 |
| 2025-11 | 52 | 560.00 |
| 2025-12 | 51 | 87.75 |
| 2026-01 | 45 | 655.75 |
| 2026-02 | 54 | 1,036.25 |
| 2026-03 | 60 | −581.75 |
| 2026-04 | 63 | −478.50 |
| 2026-05 | 60 | 63.75 |
| 2026-06 | 58 | −1,450.25 |
| 2026-07 | 45 | 438.75 |
| 2026-08 | 46 | −72.25 |
| 2026-09 | 53 | 376.75 |
| 2026-10 | 12 | −386.50 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute1363 trades
Pick any of the 1363 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1363), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | long | 09:35 | 25720.50 | 09:39 | 25688.75 | stop | −31.75 |
| 2025-12-29 | long | 09:35 | 25721.25 | 10:14 | 25664.00 | stop | −57.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | short | 10:05 | 25861.50 | 10:23 | 25884.25 | stop | −22.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | long | 09:35 | 25899.00 | 10:01 | 25864.25 | stop | −34.75 |
| 2025-12-24 | long | 13:00 | 25877.50 | 13:00 | 25871.25 | stop | −6.25 |
| 2025-12-24 | long | 09:35 | 25819.25 | 12:58 | 25890.25 | target | 71.00 |
| 2025-12-23 | short | 10:05 | 25637.75 | 10:35 | 25695.00 | stop | −57.25 |
| 2025-12-23 | long | 09:35 | 25705.50 | 10:03 | 25637.75 | stop | −67.75 |
| 2025-12-22 | short | 09:35 | 25706.25 | 15:59 | 25688.25 | end of day 15:59 | 18.00 |
| 2025-12-19 | long | 09:35 | 25454.00 | 15:59 | 25580.75 | end of day 15:59 | 126.75 |
| 2025-12-18 | short | 12:15 | 25232.75 | 12:33 | 25265.25 | stop | −32.50 |
| 2025-12-18 | short | 09:35 | 25270.00 | 10:28 | 25329.75 | stop | −59.75 |
| 2025-12-17 | short | 09:45 | 25317.00 | 10:35 | 25243.50 | target | 73.50 |
| 2025-12-17 | short | 09:35 | 25401.00 | 09:41 | 25307.00 | target | 94.00 |
| 2025-12-16 | long | 09:50 | 25320.75 | 10:25 | 25205.00 | stop | −115.75 |
| 2025-12-16 | long | 09:35 | 25285.00 | 09:46 | 25209.50 | stop | −75.50 |
| 2025-12-15 | short | 09:35 | 25318.00 | 10:19 | 25133.50 | target | 184.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | short | 10:05 | 25486.50 | 10:28 | 25341.00 | target | 145.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | long | 09:55 | 25561.00 | 10:04 | 25501.25 | stop | −59.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | short | 09:50 | 25507.50 | 09:54 | 25567.25 | stop | −59.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | long | 09:35 | 25574.00 | 09:48 | 25528.25 | stop | −45.75 |
| 2025-12-11 | long | 10:05 | 25454.50 | 10:20 | 25583.50 | target | 129.00 |
| 2025-12-11 | short | 10:00 | 25414.75 | 10:04 | 25463.00 | stop | −48.25 |
| 2025-12-11 | short | 09:35 | 25573.25 | 09:56 | 25418.75 | target | 154.50 |
| 2025-12-10 | short | 14:45 | 25666.00 | 14:51 | 25744.25 | stop | −78.25 |
| 2025-12-10 | long | 14:35 | 25742.00 | 14:40 | 25654.50 | stop | −87.50 |
| 2025-12-10 | long | 14:05 | 25653.75 | 14:34 | 25756.75 | target | 103.00 |
| 2025-12-10 | short | 09:50 | 25635.25 | 10:55 | 25560.75 | target | 74.50 |
| 2025-12-10 | short | 09:35 | 25615.25 | 09:47 | 25664.00 | stop | −48.75 |
| 2025-12-09 | long | 09:40 | 25640.25 | 15:59 | 25703.00 | end of day 15:59 | 62.75 |
| 2025-12-09 | short | 09:35 | 25580.25 | 09:39 | 25639.25 | stop | −59.00 |
| 2025-12-08 | long | 13:00 | 25680.25 | 13:28 | 25637.50 | stop | −42.75 |
| 2025-12-08 | short | 09:50 | 25759.00 | 10:26 | 25662.00 | target | 97.00 |
| 2025-12-08 | long | 09:45 | 25805.25 | 09:48 | 25771.25 | stop | −34.00 |
| 2025-12-08 | long | 09:35 | 25830.75 | 09:42 | 25778.50 | stop | −52.25 |
| 2025-12-05 | long | 09:55 | 25795.25 | 10:56 | 25740.75 | stop | −54.50 |
| 2025-12-05 | short | 09:45 | 25709.25 | 09:46 | 25741.25 | stop | −32.00 |
| 2025-12-05 | long | 09:35 | 25758.75 | 09:41 | 25678.00 | stop | −80.75 |
| 2025-12-04 | short | 09:35 | 25567.50 | 15:59 | 25628.00 | end of day 15:59 | −60.50 |
| 2025-12-03 | long | 10:05 | 25571.75 | 15:59 | 25657.50 | end of day 15:59 | 85.75 |
| 2025-12-03 | short | 09:35 | 25473.75 | 10:02 | 25538.25 | stop | −64.50 |
| 2025-12-02 | long | 10:05 | 25635.50 | 10:28 | 25594.75 | stop | −40.75 |
| 2025-12-02 | long | 09:35 | 25526.25 | 10:01 | 25636.75 | target | 110.50 |
| 2025-12-01 | short | 14:35 | 25386.00 | 14:35 | 25397.75 | stop | −11.75 |
| 2025-12-01 | long | 09:50 | 25296.75 | 10:57 | 25416.75 | target | 120.00 |
| 2025-12-01 | short | 09:45 | 25247.75 | 09:46 | 25284.50 | stop | −36.75 |
| 2025-12-01 | long | 09:35 | 25299.25 | 09:41 | 25233.75 | stop | −65.50 |
| 2025-11-28 | long | 13:00 | 25486.75 | 13:14 | 25484.50 | early close | −2.25 |
| 2025-11-28 | long | 09:50 | 25391.75 | 12:59 | 25490.25 | target | 98.50 |
| 2025-11-28 | short | 09:45 | 25357.75 | 09:48 | 25384.00 | stop | −26.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time an up bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the volume spike candle strategy took 486 long trades, won 39.7% of them and made 2,665.25 points ($53,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,681.00 points on 636 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,017.25 points on 451 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time a down bar trades at least 2x the 20-bar average volume (entering at the next open)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the volume spike candle strategy took 619 short trades, won 37.5% of them and made 228.00 points ($11,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 121.75 points on 916 trades on the 5-minute chart, 297.75 points on 489 trades on the 1-hour chart and 104.50 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the volume spike candle strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,002 trades, won 38.9% of them and finished 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Volume spike candle on ES futures?
The volume spike candle strategy won 38.5% of its 1,185 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.3% of 1,635 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.6% of 979 trades on the 1-hour chart and 100.0% of 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the volume spike candle strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy made 4,144.75 points on 1,363 trades on the 5-minute chart, 4,566.00 points on 1,002 trades on the 15-minute chart, 4,413.75 points on 881 trades on the 1-hour chart and 0.00 points on 0 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell volume spike candle signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 2,665.25 points on 486 trades (39.7% won) and the short trades made 1,900.75 points on 516 trades (38.2% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the volume spike candle strategy take on NQ in two years?
The volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,363 on the 5-minute chart, 881 on the 1-hour chart and 0 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the volume spike candle strategy on NQ?
The volume spike candle strategy had a max drawdown of 2,912.00 points ($58,240 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,448.75 points on the 5-minute chart and 4,311.50 points on the 1-hour chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the volume spike candle strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,185 trades, won 38.5% of them and made 868.00 points ($43,400 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the volume spike candle strategy took 1,002 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 4,566.00 points ($91,320 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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