Strategy library · Trend and breakouts
Williams Alligator backtest on NQ and ES futures
Williams Alligator (13 / 8 / 5)
Also called: Alligator indicator strategy, Alligator 13 8 5, Bill Williams Alligator, buy when the Alligator's lips are above its teeth, above its jaw, with price above all three, short when the Alligator's lips are below its teeth, below its jaw, with price below all three
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Alligator's lips are above its teeth, above its jaw, with price above all three?
What it is
The Williams Alligator draws three smoothed averages (jaw 13, teeth 8, lips 5) that fan out in a trend. This strategy goes long when lips are above teeth above jaw with price above all three, short on the mirror, and exits when the lines cross back.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.5% of them and finished 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 428 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 53.0% and made 4,169.50 points ($83,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams Alligator strategy took 823 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 48.0% of them and finished 369.25 points ($18,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Williams Alligator strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when lips > teeth > jaw with price above all three; short on the mirror. Exit: When the lines cross back.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1796 | 43.7% | 0.74 | 1.023 | 1,320.25 | $26,405 | 4,300.75 | 1799 | 44.1% | 0.49 | 1.077 | 876.00 | $43,800 | 595.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 945 | 46.1% | — | — | 861.75 | $17,235 | 2,966.75 | 956 | 44.9% | — | — | 337.75 | $16,888 | 375.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 851 | 41.0% | — | — | 458.50 | $9,170 | 2,143.25 | 843 | 43.2% | — | — | 538.25 | $26,913 | 540.75 |
| 15 minute | 810 | 48.5% | 5.03 | 1.110 | 4,071.25 | $81,425 | 3,165.75 | 823 | 48.0% | 0.45 | 1.046 | 369.25 | $18,463 | 692.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 428 | 53.0% | — | — | 4,169.50 | $83,390 | 1,415.50 | 450 | 50.9% | — | — | 401.00 | $20,050 | 404.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 382 | 43.5% | — | — | −98.25 | −$1,965 | 3,344.00 | 373 | 44.5% | — | — | −31.75 | −$1,587 | 564.25 |
| 1 hour | 398 | 49.0% | −4.23 | 0.927 | −1,682.50 | −$33,650 | 5,873.75 | 397 | 49.4% | −1.01 | 0.917 | −400.50 | −$20,025 | 1,232.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 237 | 52.3% | — | — | −1,719.75 | −$34,395 | 3,878.25 | 246 | 52.4% | — | — | −395.50 | −$19,775 | 863.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 161 | 44.1% | — | — | 37.25 | $745 | 2,702.75 | 151 | 44.4% | — | — | −5.00 | −$250 | 537.75 |
| Daily | 27 | 40.7% | 182.03 | 1.692 | 4,914.75 | $98,295 | 2,533.50 | 21 | 47.6% | 18.71 | 1.340 | 393.00 | $19,650 | 524.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 19 | 47.4% | — | — | 5,800.25 | $116,005 | 1,418.25 | 15 | 40.0% | — | — | 507.25 | $25,363 | 331.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 8 | 25.0% | — | — | −885.50 | −$17,710 | 1,152.50 | 6 | 66.7% | — | — | −114.25 | −$5,712 | 255.50 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 945 | 861.75 |
| Short | 851 | 458.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 68 | −387.00 |
| 2024-11 | 78 | 196.00 |
| 2024-12 | 70 | 1,646.50 |
| 2025-01 | 74 | −550.00 |
| 2025-02 | 68 | −283.25 |
| 2025-03 | 76 | −367.00 |
| 2025-04 | 73 | 2,336.00 |
| 2025-05 | 76 | −490.75 |
| 2025-06 | 80 | −504.25 |
| 2025-07 | 86 | −350.25 |
| 2025-08 | 76 | 397.75 |
| 2025-09 | 75 | −962.75 |
| 2025-10 | 65 | 702.00 |
| 2025-11 | 64 | 634.25 |
| 2025-12 | 77 | −604.75 |
| 2026-01 | 64 | 705.50 |
| 2026-02 | 59 | 519.75 |
| 2026-03 | 84 | 17.00 |
| 2026-04 | 81 | −616.00 |
| 2026-05 | 76 | 1,189.50 |
| 2026-06 | 79 | 417.75 |
| 2026-07 | 80 | −999.25 |
| 2026-08 | 78 | −1,288.50 |
| 2026-09 | 76 | −322.75 |
| 2026-10 | 13 | 284.75 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute1796 trades
Pick any of the 1796 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1796), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | short | 10:35 | 29002.00 | 11:50 | 28984.50 | lines crossed back | 17.50 |
| 2026-07-20 | long | 09:35 | 29136.75 | 10:20 | 28959.75 | lines crossed back | −177.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | short | 14:40 | 28839.00 | 15:59 | 28764.25 | end of day 15:59 | 74.75 |
| 2026-07-17 | long | 11:55 | 28884.00 | 14:10 | 28873.75 | lines crossed back | −10.25 |
| 2026-07-17 | long | 10:35 | 28791.50 | 11:25 | 28692.25 | lines crossed back | −99.25 |
| 2026-07-17 | short | 09:35 | 28554.75 | 10:20 | 28850.00 | lines crossed back | −295.25 |
| 2026-07-16 | short | 12:05 | 29338.75 | 15:59 | 29217.00 | end of day 15:59 | 121.75 |
| 2026-07-16 | short | 11:25 | 29387.50 | 11:55 | 29418.75 | lines crossed back | −31.25 |
| 2026-07-16 | long | 10:45 | 29464.50 | 11:15 | 29359.00 | lines crossed back | −105.50 |
| 2026-07-16 | short | 10:05 | 29398.00 | 10:30 | 29483.25 | lines crossed back | −85.25 |
| 2026-07-15 | long | 14:05 | 29700.50 | 15:10 | 29637.25 | lines crossed back | −63.25 |
| 2026-07-15 | short | 10:10 | 29860.75 | 13:30 | 29604.75 | lines crossed back | 256.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | short | 15:35 | 29799.75 | 15:59 | 29786.00 | end of day 15:59 | 13.75 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 13:05 | 29821.50 | 15:05 | 29798.00 | lines crossed back | −23.50 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 11:15 | 29847.50 | 12:20 | 29748.75 | lines crossed back | −98.75 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 11:05 | 29806.50 | 11:10 | 29857.50 | lines crossed back | 51.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | short | 10:50 | 29686.50 | 10:55 | 29757.75 | lines crossed back | −71.25 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 10:00 | 29780.25 | 10:25 | 29659.00 | lines crossed back | −121.25 |
| 2026-07-13 | short | 12:15 | 29613.25 | 15:59 | 29467.00 | end of day 15:59 | 146.25 |
| 2026-07-13 | long | 11:30 | 29709.00 | 12:05 | 29594.25 | lines crossed back | −114.75 |
| 2026-07-13 | short | 09:35 | 29646.25 | 10:50 | 29691.25 | lines crossed back | −45.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 15:15 | 30058.50 | 15:59 | 30037.50 | end of day 15:59 | −21.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 11:55 | 29930.75 | 15:10 | 30049.00 | lines crossed back | 118.25 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 10:00 | 29922.75 | 10:50 | 29902.50 | lines crossed back | −20.25 |
| 2026-07-09 | short | 15:35 | 29917.75 | 15:59 | 29948.75 | end of day 15:59 | −31.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | long | 11:20 | 29843.00 | 15:00 | 29939.75 | lines crossed back | 96.75 |
| 2026-07-09 | short | 10:55 | 29761.00 | 11:05 | 29821.75 | lines crossed back | −60.75 |
| 2026-07-09 | long | 09:35 | 29778.25 | 10:40 | 29784.75 | lines crossed back | 6.50 |
| 2026-07-08 | long | 12:50 | 29348.75 | 15:59 | 29457.50 | end of day 15:59 | 108.75 |
| 2026-07-08 | short | 11:35 | 29105.00 | 12:35 | 29274.75 | lines crossed back | −169.75 |
| 2026-07-08 | long | 09:35 | 29303.75 | 11:05 | 29183.50 | lines crossed back | −120.25 |
| 2026-07-07 | short | 15:15 | 29333.75 | 15:59 | 29394.50 | end of day 15:59 | −60.75 |
| 2026-07-07 | long | 12:40 | 29514.25 | 14:50 | 29452.00 | lines crossed back | −62.25 |
| 2026-07-07 | short | 09:35 | 29532.00 | 12:10 | 29411.50 | lines crossed back | 120.50 |
| 2026-07-06 | long | 15:25 | 30047.75 | 15:59 | 29951.75 | end of day 15:59 | −96.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | short | 13:30 | 29955.50 | 14:40 | 29958.25 | lines crossed back | −2.75 |
| 2026-07-06 | long | 11:45 | 30070.25 | 12:55 | 29998.00 | lines crossed back | −72.25 |
| 2026-07-06 | long | 10:15 | 30021.75 | 11:40 | 30055.00 | lines crossed back | 33.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | short | 12:05 | 29900.00 | 12:59 | 29901.75 | early close | −1.75 |
| 2026-07-03 | long | 11:20 | 29921.50 | 11:25 | 29910.25 | lines crossed back | −11.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | long | 09:35 | 29930.25 | 10:40 | 29906.25 | lines crossed back | −24.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | short | 15:25 | 29363.00 | 15:59 | 29538.25 | end of day 15:59 | −175.25 |
| 2026-07-02 | short | 10:55 | 29767.50 | 14:50 | 29494.50 | lines crossed back | 273.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | long | 10:10 | 30182.50 | 10:40 | 29924.00 | lines crossed back | −258.50 |
| 2026-07-01 | short | 12:30 | 30245.75 | 15:30 | 30190.00 | lines crossed back | 55.75 |
| 2026-07-01 | short | 10:55 | 30215.00 | 11:35 | 30317.75 | lines crossed back | −102.75 |
| 2026-07-01 | short | 09:35 | 30117.25 | 10:25 | 30293.00 | lines crossed back | −175.75 |
| 2026-06-30 | long | 10:05 | 30391.75 | 15:59 | 30513.50 | end of day 15:59 | 121.75 |
| 2026-06-29 | long | 11:30 | 29770.00 | 15:59 | 30046.25 | end of day 15:59 | 276.25 |
| 2026-06-29 | short | 10:30 | 29544.25 | 11:15 | 29725.50 | lines crossed back | −181.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the Alligator's lips are above its teeth, above its jaw, with price above all three?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Williams Alligator strategy took 428 long trades, won 53.0% of them and made 4,169.50 points ($83,390 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 861.75 points on 945 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,719.75 points on 237 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,800.25 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the Alligator's lips are below its teeth, below its jaw, with price below all three?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Williams Alligator strategy took 373 short trades, won 44.5% of them and made -31.75 points (-$1,587 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 538.25 points on 843 trades on the 5-minute chart, -5.00 points on 151 trades on the 1-hour chart and -114.25 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Williams Alligator strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy on the 15-minute chart took 810 trades, won 48.5% of them and finished 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Williams Alligator (13 / 8 / 5) on ES futures?
The Williams Alligator strategy won 48.0% of its 823 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 44.1% of 1,799 trades on the 5-minute chart, 49.4% of 397 trades on the 1-hour chart and 47.6% of 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Williams Alligator strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy made 1,320.25 points on 1,796 trades on the 5-minute chart, 4,071.25 points on 810 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,682.50 points on 398 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,914.75 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Williams Alligator signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 4,169.50 points on 428 trades (53.0% won) and the short trades made -98.25 points on 382 trades (43.5% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Williams Alligator strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,796 on the 5-minute chart, 398 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Williams Alligator strategy on NQ?
The Williams Alligator strategy had a max drawdown of 3,165.75 points ($63,315 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,300.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 5,873.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,533.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Williams Alligator strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Williams Alligator strategy took 823 trades, won 48.0% of them and made 369.25 points ($18,463 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Williams Alligator strategy took 810 trades, won 48.5% of them and made 4,071.25 points ($81,425 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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