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Candles and price action on NQ and ES: 2-year backtest of 10 strategies
CE Market Solutions tested 10 strategies in the candles and price action family on NQ and ES futures. The table lists every one of them, ordered by name, at its default timeframe on each market: the 15-minute chart where the strategy has one, otherwise its own first timeframe (1-hour, daily or session). Open a strategy for every timeframe and every trade. Nothing on this page is ordered by a result.
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Candles and price action: 10 strategies at their default timeframe
Candles and price action: 10 strategies at their default timeframe, NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, one contract, before commission and slippage.
| Strategy | Timeframe | Market | Trades | Win % | Net pts | Net $ (1 contract) | Max DD pts | Long trades | Long net pts | Short trades | Short net pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doji at a 20-bar extreme | 15 minute | NQ | 89 | 43.8% | −1,028.25 | −$20,565 | 1,281.50 | 39 | −428.50 | 50 | −599.75 |
| Doji at a 20-bar extreme | 15 minute | ES | 105 | 41.0% | 64.00 | $3,200 | 168.25 | 42 | 1.00 | 63 | 63.00 |
| Engulfing candle | 15 minute | NQ | 1,010 | 40.0% | 2,139.00 | $42,780 | 3,368.50 | 509 | 292.00 | 501 | 1,847.00 |
| Engulfing candle | 15 minute | ES | 1,140 | 39.5% | 339.75 | $16,988 | 901.25 | 583 | −66.75 | 557 | 406.50 |
| Fair value gap retrace | 15 minute | NQ | 1,146 | 40.5% | 1,210.50 | $24,210 | 6,402.25 | 634 | 1,395.75 | 512 | −185.25 |
| Fair value gap retrace | 15 minute | ES | 1,241 | 41.4% | 1,173.00 | $58,650 | 436.50 | 693 | 787.75 | 548 | 385.25 |
| Fractal breakout | 15 minute | NQ | 708 | 49.6% | 7,682.25 | $153,645 | 2,586.00 | 384 | 4,224.50 | 324 | 3,457.75 |
| Fractal breakout | 15 minute | ES | 745 | 45.2% | 691.75 | $34,588 | 580.50 | 395 | 298.00 | 350 | 393.75 |
| Hammer / shooting star | 15 minute | NQ | 348 | 35.6% | −2,930.25 | −$58,605 | 3,761.25 | 184 | −1,002.25 | 164 | −1,928.00 |
| Hammer / shooting star | 15 minute | ES | 357 | 38.9% | 52.25 | $2,613 | 364.50 | 172 | 144.50 | 185 | −92.25 |
| Key reversal bar | 15 minute | NQ | 805 | 35.7% | −1,541.75 | −$30,835 | 3,553.50 | 367 | 314.25 | 438 | −1,856.00 |
| Key reversal bar | 15 minute | ES | 800 | 36.1% | −4.00 | −$200 | 648.25 | 375 | 349.00 | 425 | −353.00 |
| Morning star / evening star | 15 minute | NQ | 530 | 37.4% | −4,396.00 | −$87,920 | 5,887.50 | 236 | −882.00 | 294 | −3,514.00 |
| Morning star / evening star | 15 minute | ES | 572 | 38.1% | −356.00 | −$17,800 | 1,139.50 | 282 | 106.75 | 290 | −462.75 |
| Outside bar reversal | 15 minute | NQ | 624 | 42.2% | 1,561.50 | $31,230 | 3,096.50 | 320 | 1,599.00 | 304 | −37.50 |
| Outside bar reversal | 15 minute | ES | 606 | 39.4% | −278.75 | −$13,937 | 1,119.75 | 324 | −122.50 | 282 | −156.25 |
| Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend | 15 minute | NQ | 165 | 33.9% | −621.00 | −$12,420 | 1,367.25 | 94 | −765.25 | 71 | 144.25 |
| Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend | 15 minute | ES | 181 | 33.7% | −310.50 | −$15,525 | 333.50 | 113 | −130.50 | 68 | −180.00 |
| Three white soldiers / three black crows | 15 minute | NQ | 517 | 48.4% | 5,041.75 | $100,835 | 2,096.50 | 284 | 1,461.75 | 233 | 3,580.00 |
| Three white soldiers / three black crows | 15 minute | ES | 722 | 44.9% | −73.75 | −$3,687 | 766.50 | 382 | −217.00 | 340 | 143.25 |
The figures in words
At those default timeframes the 10 strategies took 5,942 trades in total on NQ and 6,469 trades in total on ES, from NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Doji at a 20-bar extreme: buys when the bar after a doji at a 20-bar low breaks the doji's high, sells short when the bar after a doji at a 20-bar high breaks the doji's low. Exit: Stop beyond the doji, target 2R.
Engulfing candle: buys when a bullish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open), sells short when a bearish engulfing candle forms (entering at the next open). Exit: Stop 1 tick beyond the pattern, target 2R.
Fair value gap retrace: buys when price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap, sells short when price first retraces into a bearish 3-candle fair value gap. Exit: Stop under candle 1's low, target 2R.
Fractal breakout: buys when price breaks above the last 5-bar fractal high, sells short when price breaks below the last 5-bar fractal low. Exit: Stop at the opposite fractal, target 2R.
Hammer / shooting star: buys when a hammer forms at a 10-bar low, sells short when a shooting star forms at a 10-bar high. Exit: Stop beyond the wick, target 2R.
Key reversal bar: buys when a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close, sells short when a new 20-bar high is followed by a close below the prior close. Exit: Stop beyond the bar's extreme, target 2R.
Morning star / evening star: buys when a morning star forms, sells short when an evening star forms. Exit: Stop beyond the pattern, target 2R.
Outside bar reversal: buys when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%, sells short when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its bottom 25%. Exit: Stop beyond the bar, target 2R.
Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend: buys when a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA, sells short when a bearish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is below the 50 EMA. Exit: Stop beyond the wick, target 2R.
Three white soldiers / three black crows: buys when three white soldiers form, sells short when three black crows form. Exit: Stop beyond the pattern, target 2R.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Doji at a 20-bar extreme took 89 trades, won 43.8% of them and made -1,028.25 points (-$20,565 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Doji at a 20-bar extreme took 105 trades, won 41.0% of them and made 64.00 points ($3,200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Engulfing candle took 1,010 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 2,139.00 points ($42,780 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Engulfing candle took 1,140 trades, won 39.5% of them and made 339.75 points ($16,988 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Fair value gap retrace took 1,146 trades, won 40.5% of them and made 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Fair value gap retrace took 1,241 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 1,173.00 points ($58,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Fractal breakout took 708 trades, won 49.6% of them and made 7,682.25 points ($153,645 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Fractal breakout took 745 trades, won 45.2% of them and made 691.75 points ($34,588 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Hammer / shooting star took 348 trades, won 35.6% of them and made -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Hammer / shooting star took 357 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 52.25 points ($2,613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Key reversal bar took 805 trades, won 35.7% of them and made -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Key reversal bar took 800 trades, won 36.1% of them and made -4.00 points (-$200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Morning star / evening star took 530 trades, won 37.4% of them and made -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Morning star / evening star took 572 trades, won 38.1% of them and made -356.00 points (-$17,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Outside bar reversal took 624 trades, won 42.2% of them and made 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Outside bar reversal took 606 trades, won 39.4% of them and made -278.75 points (-$13,937 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend took 165 trades, won 33.9% of them and made -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend took 181 trades, won 33.7% of them and made -310.50 points (-$15,525 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, Three white soldiers / three black crows took 517 trades, won 48.4% of them and made 5,041.75 points ($100,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, Three white soldiers / three black crows took 722 trades, won 44.9% of them and made -73.75 points (-$3,687 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage.
How to read the columns: Trades is the number of closed trades; Win % is the share of them that finished above zero points; Net pts is the sum of every trade's points; Net $ is net points times the contract's dollars per point, on one contract; Max DD pts is the largest fall of the running total of points from a peak. The longs-only and shorts-only columns are sums over that side's own trades, and the two sides add up to the strategy's combined result.
CE Market Solutions tested every strategy on the last 2 years of NQ and ES futures (NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27), before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings. Nothing is tuned.
Questions and answers
How many strategies in the candles and price action family did CE Market Solutions test on NQ and ES?
CE Market Solutions tested 10 strategies in the candles and price action family on NQ and ES futures, and at their default timeframes they took 5,942 trades in total on NQ and 6,469 trades in total on ES, from NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage.
Which strategies are in the candles and price action family?
The 10 strategies in the candles and price action family are Doji at a 20-bar extreme, Engulfing candle, Fair value gap retrace, Fractal breakout, Hammer / shooting star, Key reversal bar, Morning star / evening star, Outside bar reversal, Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend and Three white soldiers / three black crows, each on NQ and ES futures over the last 2 years (NQ 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 and ES 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27), before commission and slippage.
More from the library
- Doji at a 20-bar extreme
- Engulfing candle
- Fair value gap retrace
- Fractal breakout
- Hammer / shooting star
- Key reversal bar
- Morning star / evening star
- Outside bar reversal
- Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend
- Three white soldiers / three black crows
- Every question the library answers
- Strategy library: all 100 strategies
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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