Strategy library · Candles and price action
Pin bar at the 20 EMA backtest on NQ and ES futures
Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend
Also called: pin bar strategy, pin bar trend strategy, pin bar pullback, buy when a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA, short when a bearish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is below the 50 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA?
What it is
A pin bar is a candle with a long wick that rejects a price level. With price above the EMA 50, this strategy goes long on a bullish pin bar whose wick touches the EMA 20 (short on the mirror), with the stop beyond the wick and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 33.9% of them and finished -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 94 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 30.9% and made -765.25 points (-$15,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 181 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 33.7% of them and finished -310.50 points (-$15,525 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: With price above EMA 50, long a bullish pin bar whose wick touches EMA 20; short on the mirror. Exit: Stop beyond the wick, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 493 | 34.5% | 0.16 | 1.008 | 80.25 | $1,605 | 1,873.00 | 470 | 34.5% | 0.19 | 1.045 | 89.00 | $4,450 | 300.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 289 | 34.3% | — | — | 217.25 | $4,345 | 1,021.50 | 274 | 32.5% | — | — | 71.25 | $3,563 | 273.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 204 | 34.8% | — | — | −137.00 | −$2,740 | 1,311.75 | 196 | 37.2% | — | — | 17.75 | $888 | 156.75 |
| 15 minute | 165 | 33.9% | −3.76 | 0.883 | −621.00 | −$12,420 | 1,367.25 | 181 | 33.7% | −1.72 | 0.759 | −310.50 | −$15,525 | 333.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 94 | 30.9% | — | — | −765.25 | −$15,305 | 973.75 | 113 | 34.5% | — | — | −130.50 | −$6,525 | 130.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 71 | 38.0% | — | — | 144.25 | $2,885 | 654.00 | 68 | 32.4% | — | — | −180.00 | −$9,000 | 282.25 |
| 1 hour | 63 | 54.0% | 18.90 | 1.511 | 1,190.75 | $23,815 | 469.75 | 63 | 50.8% | 3.93 | 1.493 | 247.75 | $12,388 | 134.25 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 46 | 54.4% | — | — | 536.25 | $10,725 | 360.25 | 43 | 48.8% | — | — | 35.50 | $1,775 | 111.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 17 | 52.9% | — | — | 654.50 | $13,090 | 220.00 | 20 | 55.0% | — | — | 212.25 | $10,613 | 94.75 |
| Daily | 6 | 33.3% | −25.67 | 0.883 | −154.00 | −$3,080 | 884.25 | 10 | 50.0% | 46.05 | 2.218 | 460.50 | $23,025 | 283.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 6 | 33.3% | — | — | −154.00 | −$3,080 | 884.25 | 9 | 55.6% | — | — | 551.50 | $27,575 | 192.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0.0% | — | — | −91.00 | −$4,550 | 91.00 |
NQ Daily: small sample (6 trades). ES Daily: small sample (10 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 94 | −765.25 |
| Short | 71 | 144.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 8 | −319.25 |
| 2024-11 | 7 | 75.50 |
| 2024-12 | 7 | 319.25 |
| 2025-01 | 8 | 429.00 |
| 2025-02 | 4 | −32.50 |
| 2025-03 | 6 | 208.00 |
| 2025-04 | 3 | −329.75 |
| 2025-05 | 4 | 145.25 |
| 2025-06 | 9 | −61.00 |
| 2025-07 | 12 | −76.75 |
| 2025-08 | 7 | 103.75 |
| 2025-09 | 3 | 104.50 |
| 2025-10 | 5 | 62.25 |
| 2025-11 | 3 | −61.25 |
| 2025-12 | 8 | −113.75 |
| 2026-01 | 8 | 166.00 |
| 2026-02 | 8 | −425.75 |
| 2026-03 | 8 | −109.50 |
| 2026-04 | 4 | −244.75 |
| 2026-05 | 7 | −147.75 |
| 2026-06 | 7 | 209.75 |
| 2026-07 | 4 | 225.25 |
| 2026-08 | 9 | −396.50 |
| 2026-09 | 16 | −351.00 |
Every trade, NQ 15 minute165 trades
Pick any of the 165 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (165), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | long | 14:45 | 30825.50 | 14:51 | 30794.25 | stop | −31.25 |
| 2026-09-28 | long | 14:45 | 30625.50 | 15:13 | 30578.50 | stop | −47.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | long | 12:30 | 30925.00 | 15:59 | 30891.50 | end of day 15:59 | −33.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | short | 11:15 | 30821.00 | 12:00 | 30871.75 | stop | −50.75 |
| 2026-09-24 | long | 14:15 | 30695.50 | 15:59 | 30756.75 | end of day 15:59 | 61.25 |
| 2026-09-24 | short | 11:30 | 30514.25 | 11:52 | 30558.00 | stop | −43.75 |
| 2026-09-18 | short | 13:30 | 29741.50 | 13:36 | 29751.75 | stop | −10.25 |
| 2026-09-17 | long | 11:15 | 29682.25 | 11:46 | 29743.25 | target | 61.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | long | 13:15 | 29460.00 | 13:40 | 29439.50 | stop | −20.50 |
| 2026-09-15 | long | 09:45 | 29435.75 | 10:07 | 29372.25 | stop | −63.50 |
| 2026-09-11 | long | 09:45 | 29434.00 | 10:47 | 29347.00 | stop | −87.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | short | 15:30 | 29452.25 | 15:59 | 29454.50 | end of day 15:59 | −2.25 |
| 2026-09-09 | long | 10:30 | 29535.00 | 11:09 | 29459.25 | stop | −75.75 |
| 2026-09-08 | long | 14:45 | 29603.25 | 14:48 | 29577.75 | stop | −25.50 |
| 2026-09-07 | short | 11:15 | 29587.75 | 12:17 | 29610.00 | stop | −22.25 |
| 2026-09-02 | long | 13:30 | 29150.50 | 15:59 | 29190.50 | end of day 15:59 | 40.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | long | 11:30 | 29256.75 | 11:34 | 29222.25 | stop | −34.50 |
| 2026-08-21 | short | 14:15 | 29374.25 | 15:00 | 29405.50 | stop | −31.25 |
| 2026-08-21 | long | 13:00 | 29412.00 | 13:22 | 29380.50 | stop | −31.50 |
| 2026-08-19 | short | 15:30 | 29556.75 | 15:32 | 29580.00 | stop | −23.25 |
| 2026-08-19 | long | 11:45 | 29596.25 | 13:03 | 29550.00 | stop | −46.25 |
| 2026-08-14 | long | 09:45 | 30260.75 | 10:19 | 30169.50 | stop | −91.25 |
| 2026-08-12 | long | 10:45 | 29924.75 | 11:33 | 29828.00 | stop | −96.75 |
| 2026-08-06 | short | 15:45 | 29504.00 | 15:59 | 29496.75 | end of day 15:59 | 7.25 |
| 2026-08-06 | short | 12:45 | 29478.50 | 12:53 | 29527.50 | stop | −49.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | short | 11:45 | 28507.00 | 11:57 | 28577.75 | stop | −70.75 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 15:15 | 29816.00 | 15:30 | 29779.75 | stop | −36.25 |
| 2026-07-10 | long | 10:45 | 29890.75 | 15:59 | 30037.50 | end of day 15:59 | 146.75 |
| 2026-07-09 | long | 10:30 | 29763.25 | 15:59 | 29948.75 | end of day 15:59 | 185.50 |
| 2026-06-26 | long | 12:30 | 29559.25 | 13:09 | 29690.75 | target | 131.50 |
| 2026-06-22 | short | 14:30 | 30627.75 | 14:59 | 30552.75 | target | 75.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | long | 09:45 | 30520.75 | 09:57 | 30398.00 | stop | −122.75 |
| 2026-06-16 | short | 10:00 | 30808.00 | 10:30 | 30645.50 | target | 162.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | short | 11:30 | 28757.75 | 11:37 | 28860.25 | stop | −102.50 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | 12:45 | 28752.25 | 15:17 | 28552.75 | target | 199.50 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 09:45 | 29766.50 | 10:00 | 29633.00 | stop | −133.50 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 09:45 | 29933.50 | 15:59 | 30079.75 | end of day 15:59 | 146.25 |
| 2026-05-22 | long | 14:45 | 29667.25 | 15:02 | 29623.75 | stop | −43.50 |
| 2026-05-22 | long | 10:30 | 29563.75 | 11:31 | 29711.25 | target | 147.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | short | 09:45 | 28910.25 | 13:09 | 29068.25 | stop | −158.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | long | 10:15 | 29259.25 | 10:30 | 29128.75 | stop | −130.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | long | 14:45 | 29376.25 | 15:11 | 29315.75 | stop | −60.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | long | 10:15 | 27892.75 | 11:14 | 27843.75 | stop | −49.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | long | 12:15 | 27080.50 | 13:01 | 27038.50 | stop | −42.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | long | 12:45 | 26496.50 | 14:07 | 26430.25 | stop | −66.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | long | 10:15 | 25322.50 | 11:55 | 25267.75 | stop | −54.75 |
| 2026-04-09 | long | 09:45 | 25100.50 | 09:53 | 25018.75 | stop | −81.75 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | 12:15 | 24471.50 | 14:58 | 24523.00 | stop | −51.50 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | 11:15 | 24701.25 | 12:21 | 24647.25 | stop | −54.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | short | 12:30 | 24639.75 | 15:59 | 24555.25 | end of day 15:59 | 84.50 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time a bullish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is above the 50 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 94 long trades, won 30.9% of them and made -765.25 points (-$15,305 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 217.25 points on 289 trades on the 5-minute chart, 536.25 points on 46 trades on the 1-hour chart and -154.00 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time a bearish pin bar touches the 20 EMA while price is below the 50 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 68 short trades, won 32.4% of them and made -180.00 points (-$9,000 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 17.75 points on 196 trades on the 5-minute chart, 212.25 points on 20 trades on the 1-hour chart and -91.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on the 15-minute chart took 165 trades, won 33.9% of them and finished -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Pin bar at EMA 20 in a trend on ES futures?
The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy won 33.7% of its 181 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 34.5% of 470 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.8% of 63 trades on the 1-hour chart and 50.0% of 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy made 80.25 points on 493 trades on the 5-minute chart, -621.00 points on 165 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,190.75 points on 63 trades on the 1-hour chart and -154.00 points on 6 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell pin bar at the 20 EMA signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -765.25 points on 94 trades (30.9% won) and the short trades made 144.25 points on 71 trades (38.0% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy take on NQ in two years?
The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 493 on the 5-minute chart, 63 on the 1-hour chart and 6 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy on NQ?
The pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy had a max drawdown of 1,367.25 points ($27,345 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 1,873.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 469.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 884.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 181 trades, won 33.7% of them and made -310.50 points (-$15,525 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the pin bar at the 20 EMA strategy took 165 trades, won 33.9% of them and made -621.00 points (-$12,420 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
Want your own rules tested the same way?