Strategy library · Mean reversion and bands
Bollinger Bands breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Bollinger breakout (20, 2)
Also called: Bollinger Band breakout strategy, close above upper Bollinger Band, Bollinger Bands momentum, buy when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, short when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band?
What it is
Bollinger Bands place a 20-period simple moving average with bands two standard deviations above and below it. This strategy goes long on a close above the upper band and short on a close below the lower band, and exits on a close back through the middle band.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.4% of them and finished 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 323 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 46.8% and made 1,192.50 points ($23,850 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 670 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 43.3% of them and finished 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long on a close above the upper band; short below the lower band. Exit: Close back through the middle band.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1533 | 38.9% | 2.24 | 1.072 | 3,435.25 | $68,705 | 2,800.25 | 1515 | 38.2% | 0.25 | 1.041 | 381.25 | $19,063 | 550.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 753 | 40.8% | — | — | 1,107.00 | $22,140 | 2,264.50 | 731 | 40.4% | — | — | 401.50 | $20,075 | 259.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 780 | 37.1% | — | — | 2,328.25 | $46,565 | 1,955.25 | 784 | 36.2% | — | — | −20.25 | −$1,012 | 500.50 |
| 15 minute | 648 | 42.4% | 1.47 | 1.027 | 952.75 | $19,055 | 3,777.25 | 670 | 43.3% | 0.18 | 1.018 | 122.25 | $6,113 | 577.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 323 | 46.8% | — | — | 1,192.50 | $23,850 | 2,406.75 | 329 | 46.2% | — | — | 295.50 | $14,775 | 338.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 325 | 38.2% | — | — | −239.75 | −$4,795 | 3,240.75 | 341 | 40.5% | — | — | −173.25 | −$8,662 | 482.75 |
| 1 hour | 379 | 51.5% | 5.27 | 1.098 | 1,998.00 | $39,960 | 2,691.75 | 420 | 46.7% | −0.88 | 0.926 | −370.75 | −$18,537 | 694.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 202 | 57.4% | — | — | 807.50 | $16,150 | 1,053.75 | 228 | 50.0% | — | — | −444.75 | −$22,237 | 588.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 177 | 44.6% | — | — | 1,190.50 | $23,810 | 2,246.75 | 192 | 42.7% | — | — | 74.00 | $3,700 | 494.50 |
| Daily | 21 | 28.6% | −107.18 | 0.708 | −2,250.75 | −$45,015 | 4,243.75 | 18 | 33.3% | −56.07 | 0.458 | −1,009.25 | −$50,462 | 1,009.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 12 | 41.7% | — | — | 710.50 | $14,210 | 2,772.00 | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | 72.75 | $3,638 | 206.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 9 | 11.1% | — | — | −2,961.25 | −$59,225 | 3,194.25 | 10 | 30.0% | — | — | −1,082.00 | −$54,100 | 1,082.00 |
ES Daily: small sample (18 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 329 | 295.50 |
| Short | 341 | −173.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 6 | 13.75 |
| 2024-09 | 31 | −138.50 |
| 2024-10 | 27 | 102.50 |
| 2024-11 | 24 | −3.50 |
| 2024-12 | 28 | 253.75 |
| 2025-01 | 30 | −92.00 |
| 2025-02 | 27 | 50.50 |
| 2025-03 | 29 | 14.75 |
| 2025-04 | 28 | −90.00 |
| 2025-05 | 30 | −263.25 |
| 2025-06 | 31 | −110.00 |
| 2025-07 | 27 | 125.25 |
| 2025-08 | 24 | 131.50 |
| 2025-09 | 29 | −154.50 |
| 2025-10 | 28 | 106.50 |
| 2025-11 | 24 | 181.00 |
| 2025-12 | 32 | 32.00 |
| 2026-01 | 29 | −12.50 |
| 2026-02 | 22 | 189.75 |
| 2026-03 | 30 | −76.25 |
| 2026-04 | 22 | 125.25 |
| 2026-05 | 29 | −31.75 |
| 2026-06 | 30 | −45.50 |
| 2026-07 | 31 | −253.25 |
| 2026-08 | 22 | 66.75 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute670 trades
Pick any of the 670 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (670), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | short | 10:00 | 6979.00 | 11:45 | 6992.00 | close above mid | −13.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | short | 14:45 | 6996.00 | 15:59 | 6984.75 | end of day 15:59 | 11.25 |
| 2026-01-14 | long | 15:30 | 6954.50 | 15:59 | 6968.00 | end of day 15:59 | 13.50 |
| 2026-01-14 | short | 09:45 | 6957.25 | 14:15 | 6942.00 | close above mid | 15.25 |
| 2026-01-13 | short | 10:30 | 6989.75 | 11:45 | 7008.75 | close above mid | −19.00 |
| 2026-01-12 | long | 09:45 | 6991.00 | 15:59 | 7016.00 | end of day 15:59 | 25.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | long | 10:30 | 6996.25 | 15:59 | 7004.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.50 |
| 2026-01-08 | long | 10:15 | 6962.25 | 13:15 | 6955.25 | close below mid | −7.00 |
| 2026-01-07 | short | 15:15 | 6974.50 | 15:59 | 6963.00 | end of day 15:59 | 11.50 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 11:45 | 6999.00 | 13:30 | 6988.00 | close below mid | −11.00 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 09:45 | 6994.75 | 10:15 | 6983.00 | close below mid | −11.75 |
| 2026-01-06 | long | 09:45 | 6952.75 | 15:59 | 6986.25 | end of day 15:59 | 33.50 |
| 2026-01-05 | long | 09:45 | 6943.00 | 14:30 | 6950.50 | close below mid | 7.50 |
| 2026-01-02 | short | 10:15 | 6913.50 | 14:30 | 6898.25 | close above mid | 15.25 |
| 2026-01-02 | short | 09:45 | 6919.75 | 10:00 | 6932.75 | close above mid | −13.00 |
| 2025-12-31 | short | 15:00 | 6913.50 | 15:59 | 6891.75 | end of day 15:59 | 21.75 |
| 2025-12-31 | short | 11:00 | 6915.25 | 13:45 | 6930.25 | close above mid | −15.00 |
| 2025-12-30 | short | 10:15 | 6944.25 | 11:00 | 6951.50 | close above mid | −7.25 |
| 2025-12-30 | short | 09:45 | 6946.75 | 10:00 | 6956.25 | close above mid | −9.50 |
| 2025-12-29 | long | 15:00 | 6959.25 | 15:59 | 6955.00 | end of day 15:59 | −4.25 |
| 2025-12-29 | short | 10:15 | 6946.25 | 13:45 | 6950.50 | close above mid | −4.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | short | 12:15 | 6971.50 | 14:15 | 6979.25 | close above mid | −7.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | long | 09:45 | 6992.75 | 10:15 | 6976.00 | close below mid | −16.75 |
| 2025-12-24 | long | 09:45 | 6962.50 | 13:14 | 6980.00 | early close | 17.50 |
| 2025-12-23 | long | 10:45 | 6942.25 | 15:59 | 6960.25 | end of day 15:59 | 18.00 |
| 2025-12-22 | long | 11:15 | 6929.00 | 14:15 | 6925.50 | close below mid | −3.50 |
| 2025-12-22 | long | 10:00 | 6922.25 | 10:15 | 6912.00 | close below mid | −10.25 |
| 2025-12-19 | long | 09:45 | 6876.25 | 15:45 | 6882.50 | close below mid | 6.25 |
| 2025-12-18 | long | 10:00 | 6844.50 | 12:15 | 6827.75 | close below mid | −16.75 |
| 2025-12-17 | short | 09:45 | 6850.75 | 15:59 | 6777.00 | end of day 15:59 | 73.75 |
| 2025-12-16 | long | 15:45 | 6867.50 | 15:59 | 6855.25 | end of day 15:59 | −12.25 |
| 2025-12-16 | short | 10:30 | 6845.25 | 14:45 | 6847.00 | close above mid | −1.75 |
| 2025-12-15 | short | 09:45 | 6850.00 | 15:00 | 6830.25 | close above mid | 19.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | short | 10:00 | 6889.00 | 15:59 | 6831.25 | end of day 15:59 | 57.75 |
| 2025-12-11 | long | 12:30 | 6890.25 | 15:59 | 6908.00 | end of day 15:59 | 17.75 |
| 2025-12-11 | short | 10:00 | 6843.00 | 10:15 | 6866.75 | close above mid | −23.75 |
| 2025-12-10 | long | 14:15 | 6865.25 | 15:59 | 6892.00 | end of day 15:59 | 26.75 |
| 2025-12-10 | long | 11:30 | 6855.00 | 13:30 | 6846.50 | close below mid | −8.50 |
| 2025-12-09 | short | 14:45 | 6852.50 | 15:59 | 6849.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.25 |
| 2025-12-08 | short | 09:45 | 6878.75 | 15:59 | 6856.50 | end of day 15:59 | 22.25 |
| 2025-12-05 | long | 10:00 | 6889.75 | 11:30 | 6880.25 | close below mid | −9.50 |
| 2025-12-04 | short | 14:30 | 6845.00 | 15:59 | 6867.50 | end of day 15:59 | −22.50 |
| 2025-12-04 | short | 10:00 | 6853.50 | 10:45 | 6865.50 | close above mid | −12.00 |
| 2025-12-02 | short | 11:30 | 6824.50 | 12:30 | 6849.25 | close above mid | −24.75 |
| 2025-12-02 | long | 11:00 | 6860.25 | 11:15 | 6840.50 | close below mid | −19.75 |
| 2025-12-02 | long | 10:15 | 6854.75 | 10:30 | 6840.50 | close below mid | −14.25 |
| 2025-12-01 | long | 10:00 | 6840.25 | 14:30 | 6831.75 | close below mid | −8.50 |
| 2025-11-28 | long | 10:15 | 6842.50 | 13:14 | 6857.25 | early close | 14.75 |
| 2025-11-26 | long | 09:45 | 6817.00 | 15:59 | 6825.25 | end of day 15:59 | 8.25 |
| 2025-11-25 | long | 10:45 | 6734.50 | 15:59 | 6780.25 | end of day 15:59 | 45.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Bollinger Band?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 323 long trades, won 46.8% of them and made 1,192.50 points ($23,850 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 1,107.00 points on 753 trades on the 5-minute chart, 807.50 points on 202 trades on the 1-hour chart and 710.50 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the lower Bollinger Band?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 341 short trades, won 40.5% of them and made -173.25 points (-$8,662 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -20.25 points on 784 trades on the 5-minute chart, 74.00 points on 192 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,082.00 points on 10 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and finished 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Bollinger breakout (20, 2) on ES futures?
The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy won 43.3% of its 670 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 38.2% of 1,515 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.7% of 420 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 18 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy made 3,435.25 points on 1,533 trades on the 5-minute chart, 952.75 points on 648 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,998.00 points on 379 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,250.75 points on 21 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Bollinger Bands breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,192.50 points on 323 trades (46.8% won) and the short trades made -239.75 points on 325 trades (38.2% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,533 on the 5-minute chart, 379 on the 1-hour chart and 21 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy on NQ?
The Bollinger Bands breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 3,777.25 points ($75,545 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,800.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 2,691.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,243.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 670 trades, won 43.3% of them and made 122.25 points ($6,113 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Bollinger Bands breakout strategy took 648 trades, won 42.4% of them and made 952.75 points ($19,055 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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