Strategy library · Moving averages
EMA 20/50 cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
EMA 20 / 50 cross
Also called: 20 50 EMA crossover, 20 and 50 EMA strategy, buy when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, short when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA?
What it is
An exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily than older ones. This strategy goes long when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, short when it crosses below, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 44.7% of them and finished 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 156 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 48.1% and made 1,099.00 points ($21,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 321 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.1% of them and finished 207.00 points ($10,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50; short below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 695 | 41.2% | −1.83 | 0.957 | −1,273.25 | −$25,465 | 3,121.00 | 748 | 40.5% | 0.22 | 1.024 | 165.50 | $8,275 | 738.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 358 | 43.3% | — | — | −1,875.25 | −$37,505 | 2,697.75 | 373 | 40.8% | — | — | 33.75 | $1,688 | 385.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 337 | 38.9% | — | — | 602.00 | $12,040 | 1,523.25 | 375 | 40.3% | — | — | 131.75 | $6,588 | 423.75 |
| 15 minute | 329 | 44.7% | 6.72 | 1.142 | 2,209.50 | $44,190 | 1,991.25 | 321 | 46.1% | 0.64 | 1.060 | 207.00 | $10,350 | 496.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 156 | 48.1% | — | — | 1,099.00 | $21,980 | 2,018.25 | 139 | 46.8% | — | — | 26.25 | $1,313 | 337.75 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 173 | 41.6% | — | — | 1,110.50 | $22,210 | 1,636.25 | 182 | 45.6% | — | — | 180.75 | $9,038 | 297.00 |
| 1 hour | 88 | 44.3% | −8.29 | 0.863 | −729.75 | −$14,595 | 1,617.00 | 93 | 44.1% | 1.35 | 1.118 | 125.75 | $6,288 | 267.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 48 | 54.2% | — | — | −579.75 | −$11,595 | 1,090.25 | 48 | 43.8% | — | — | 45.00 | $2,250 | 127.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 40 | 32.5% | — | — | −150.00 | −$3,000 | 859.25 | 45 | 44.4% | — | — | 80.75 | $4,038 | 218.75 |
| Daily | 8 | 37.5% | 86.81 | 1.149 | 694.50 | $13,890 | 3,182.00 | 8 | 37.5% | 87.47 | 1.978 | 699.75 | $34,988 | 408.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 4 | 75.0% | — | — | 4,674.25 | $93,485 | 681.50 | 4 | 50.0% | — | — | 1,113.25 | $55,663 | 152.50 |
| Daily · shorts only | 4 | 0.0% | — | — | −3,979.75 | −$79,595 | 3,979.75 | 4 | 25.0% | — | — | −413.50 | −$20,675 | 413.50 |
NQ Daily: small sample (8 trades). ES Daily: small sample (8 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 1 hour: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 48 | 45.00 |
| Short | 45 | 80.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 2 | −47.50 |
| 2024-09 | 5 | 22.50 |
| 2024-10 | 5 | −55.25 |
| 2024-11 | 4 | −21.75 |
| 2024-12 | 5 | −43.25 |
| 2025-01 | 1 | −3.50 |
| 2025-02 | 5 | −20.00 |
| 2025-03 | 3 | 20.00 |
| 2025-04 | 5 | −56.75 |
| 2025-06 | 3 | 47.25 |
| 2025-07 | 5 | −1.25 |
| 2025-08 | 3 | −6.00 |
| 2025-09 | 1 | −8.50 |
| 2025-10 | 7 | 170.75 |
| 2025-11 | 2 | 100.25 |
| 2025-12 | 4 | 22.75 |
| 2026-01 | 4 | −89.00 |
| 2026-02 | 5 | −4.25 |
| 2026-03 | 5 | −31.50 |
| 2026-04 | 3 | 91.75 |
| 2026-05 | 4 | −10.75 |
| 2026-06 | 4 | 2.25 |
| 2026-07 | 5 | 55.75 |
| 2026-08 | 3 | −8.25 |
Every trade, ES 1 hour93 trades
Pick any of the 93 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (93), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | long | 10:00 | 7701.25 | 15:59 | 7692.00 | end of day 15:59 | −9.25 |
| 2026-08-17 | short | 14:00 | 7775.25 | 15:59 | 7768.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.50 |
| 2026-08-12 | long | 15:00 | 7775.00 | 15:59 | 7769.50 | end of day 15:59 | −5.50 |
| 2026-07-29 | short | 11:00 | 7403.75 | 15:59 | 7350.25 | end of day 15:59 | 53.50 |
| 2026-07-27 | short | 13:00 | 7428.25 | 15:59 | 7449.25 | end of day 15:59 | −21.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | long | 14:00 | 7549.00 | 15:59 | 7545.75 | end of day 15:59 | −3.25 |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 15:00 | 7592.25 | 15:59 | 7590.00 | end of day 15:59 | −2.25 |
| 2026-07-09 | long | 11:00 | 7562.00 | 15:59 | 7590.75 | end of day 15:59 | 28.75 |
| 2026-06-22 | short | 12:00 | 7542.50 | 15:59 | 7540.25 | end of day 15:59 | 2.25 |
| 2026-06-22 | long | 10:00 | 7596.25 | 12:00 | 7542.50 | opposite cross | −53.75 |
| 2026-06-17 | short | 15:00 | 7540.50 | 15:59 | 7492.25 | end of day 15:59 | 48.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | short | 13:00 | 7578.00 | 15:59 | 7572.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.50 |
| 2026-05-28 | long | 11:00 | 7562.75 | 15:59 | 7582.00 | end of day 15:59 | 19.25 |
| 2026-05-20 | long | 14:00 | 7437.50 | 15:59 | 7451.50 | end of day 15:59 | 14.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 11:00 | 7450.50 | 15:59 | 7432.50 | end of day 15:59 | 18.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | 13:00 | 7366.25 | 15:59 | 7428.25 | end of day 15:59 | −62.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | long | 11:00 | 7192.00 | 15:59 | 7238.25 | end of day 15:59 | 46.25 |
| 2026-04-28 | short | 12:00 | 7153.75 | 15:59 | 7171.50 | end of day 15:59 | −17.75 |
| 2026-04-13 | long | 10:00 | 6858.00 | 15:59 | 6921.25 | end of day 15:59 | 63.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | long | 14:00 | 6532.00 | 15:59 | 6569.00 | end of day 15:59 | 37.00 |
| 2026-03-18 | short | 15:00 | 6695.50 | 15:59 | 6677.25 | end of day 15:59 | 18.25 |
| 2026-03-17 | long | 10:00 | 6803.00 | 15:59 | 6771.75 | end of day 15:59 | −31.25 |
| 2026-03-05 | short | 14:00 | 6787.25 | 15:59 | 6835.00 | end of day 15:59 | −47.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | long | 12:00 | 6880.75 | 15:59 | 6873.00 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2026-02-24 | long | 15:00 | 6900.50 | 15:59 | 6903.25 | end of day 15:59 | 2.75 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | 12:00 | 6849.00 | 15:59 | 6854.00 | end of day 15:59 | −5.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | short | 12:00 | 6884.50 | 15:59 | 6850.50 | end of day 15:59 | 34.00 |
| 2026-02-03 | short | 15:00 | 6914.25 | 15:59 | 6940.50 | end of day 15:59 | −26.25 |
| 2026-02-02 | long | 14:00 | 7012.75 | 15:59 | 7003.00 | end of day 15:59 | −9.75 |
| 2026-01-29 | short | 11:00 | 6911.00 | 15:59 | 6989.75 | end of day 15:59 | −78.75 |
| 2026-01-15 | long | 10:00 | 6999.00 | 15:59 | 6984.75 | end of day 15:59 | −14.25 |
| 2026-01-12 | long | 10:00 | 7000.00 | 15:59 | 7016.00 | end of day 15:59 | 16.00 |
| 2026-01-05 | long | 12:00 | 6958.00 | 15:59 | 6946.00 | end of day 15:59 | −12.00 |
| 2025-12-29 | short | 11:00 | 6949.00 | 15:59 | 6955.00 | end of day 15:59 | −6.00 |
| 2025-12-12 | short | 14:00 | 6839.25 | 15:59 | 6831.25 | end of day 15:59 | 8.00 |
| 2025-12-11 | long | 12:00 | 6871.75 | 15:59 | 6908.00 | end of day 15:59 | 36.25 |
| 2025-12-08 | short | 14:00 | 6841.00 | 15:59 | 6856.50 | end of day 15:59 | −15.50 |
| 2025-11-20 | short | 15:00 | 6615.00 | 15:59 | 6558.75 | end of day 15:59 | 56.25 |
| 2025-11-13 | short | 11:00 | 6806.00 | 15:59 | 6762.00 | end of day 15:59 | 44.00 |
| 2025-10-30 | short | 12:00 | 6887.75 | 15:59 | 6853.75 | end of day 15:59 | 34.00 |
| 2025-10-23 | long | 14:00 | 6782.50 | 15:59 | 6774.75 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2025-10-10 | short | 11:00 | 6757.50 | 15:59 | 6595.00 | end of day 15:59 | 162.50 |
| 2025-10-10 | long | 10:00 | 6796.75 | 11:00 | 6757.50 | opposite cross | −39.25 |
| 2025-10-08 | long | 12:00 | 6799.50 | 15:59 | 6802.00 | end of day 15:59 | 2.50 |
| 2025-10-07 | short | 14:00 | 6754.00 | 15:59 | 6762.50 | end of day 15:59 | −8.50 |
| 2025-10-01 | long | 11:00 | 6733.25 | 15:59 | 6760.50 | end of day 15:59 | 27.25 |
| 2025-09-17 | short | 13:00 | 6651.75 | 15:59 | 6660.25 | end of day 15:59 | −8.50 |
| 2025-08-29 | short | 13:00 | 6471.25 | 15:59 | 6475.25 | end of day 15:59 | −4.00 |
| 2025-08-22 | long | 12:00 | 6485.25 | 15:59 | 6483.25 | end of day 15:59 | −2.00 |
| 2025-08-06 | long | 12:00 | 6371.75 | 15:59 | 6371.75 | end of day 15:59 | 0.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | short | 15:00 | 6406.25 | 15:59 | 6406.00 | end of day 15:59 | 0.25 |
| 2025-07-22 | long | 15:00 | 6350.75 | 15:59 | 6345.50 | end of day 15:59 | −5.25 |
| 2025-07-22 | short | 13:00 | 6336.00 | 15:00 | 6350.75 | opposite cross | −14.75 |
| 2025-07-14 | long | 15:00 | 6313.00 | 15:59 | 6310.75 | end of day 15:59 | −2.25 |
| 2025-07-09 | long | 12:00 | 6286.25 | 15:59 | 6307.00 | end of day 15:59 | 20.75 |
| 2025-06-23 | long | 11:00 | 6040.00 | 15:59 | 6076.75 | end of day 15:59 | 36.75 |
| 2025-06-17 | short | 14:00 | 6043.00 | 15:59 | 6038.25 | end of day 15:59 | 4.75 |
| 2025-06-12 | long | 14:00 | 6044.75 | 15:59 | 6050.50 | end of day 15:59 | 5.75 |
| 2025-04-30 | short | 15:00 | 5537.25 | 15:59 | 5584.00 | end of day 15:59 | −46.75 |
| 2025-04-30 | long | 14:00 | 5546.25 | 15:00 | 5537.25 | opposite cross | −9.00 |
| 2025-04-30 | short | 13:00 | 5537.00 | 14:00 | 5546.25 | opposite cross | −9.25 |
| 2025-04-08 | short | 13:00 | 5123.25 | 15:59 | 5017.50 | end of day 15:59 | 105.75 |
| 2025-04-08 | long | 12:00 | 5220.75 | 13:00 | 5123.25 | opposite cross | −97.50 |
| 2025-03-26 | short | 15:00 | 5745.25 | 15:59 | 5758.25 | end of day 15:59 | −13.00 |
| 2025-03-19 | long | 12:00 | 5718.00 | 15:59 | 5730.75 | end of day 15:59 | 12.75 |
| 2025-03-14 | long | 14:00 | 5617.25 | 15:59 | 5637.50 | end of day 15:59 | 20.25 |
| 2025-02-20 | short | 10:00 | 6116.75 | 15:59 | 6137.25 | end of day 15:59 | −20.50 |
| 2025-02-13 | long | 11:00 | 6109.50 | 15:59 | 6135.25 | end of day 15:59 | 25.75 |
| 2025-02-12 | short | 10:00 | 6052.50 | 15:59 | 6072.75 | end of day 15:59 | −20.25 |
| 2025-02-11 | long | 15:00 | 6094.25 | 15:59 | 6092.50 | end of day 15:59 | −1.75 |
| 2025-02-10 | long | 14:00 | 6091.50 | 15:59 | 6088.25 | end of day 15:59 | −3.25 |
| 2025-01-03 | long | 15:00 | 5991.50 | 15:59 | 5988.00 | end of day 15:59 | −3.50 |
| 2024-12-27 | short | 12:00 | 5996.00 | 15:59 | 6028.50 | end of day 15:59 | −32.50 |
| 2024-12-16 | long | 12:00 | 6082.25 | 15:59 | 6080.00 | end of day 15:59 | −2.25 |
| 2024-12-13 | short | 11:00 | 6048.00 | 15:59 | 6055.75 | end of day 15:59 | −7.75 |
| 2024-12-11 | long | 13:00 | 6099.25 | 15:59 | 6092.25 | end of day 15:59 | −7.00 |
| 2024-12-09 | short | 13:00 | 6072.00 | 15:59 | 6065.75 | end of day 15:59 | 6.25 |
| 2024-11-20 | short | 14:00 | 5902.00 | 15:59 | 5939.25 | end of day 15:59 | −37.25 |
| 2024-11-14 | short | 11:00 | 6003.00 | 15:59 | 5976.75 | end of day 15:59 | 26.25 |
| 2024-11-13 | long | 14:00 | 6032.25 | 15:59 | 6015.75 | end of day 15:59 | −16.50 |
| 2024-11-05 | long | 13:00 | 5807.25 | 15:59 | 5813.00 | end of day 15:59 | 5.75 |
| 2024-10-29 | long | 15:00 | 5878.25 | 15:59 | 5871.75 | end of day 15:59 | −6.50 |
| 2024-10-25 | long | 11:00 | 5890.25 | 15:59 | 5845.50 | end of day 15:59 | −44.75 |
| 2024-10-21 | short | 13:00 | 5888.00 | 15:59 | 5897.00 | end of day 15:59 | −9.00 |
| 2024-10-08 | long | 12:00 | 5792.25 | 15:59 | 5800.75 | end of day 15:59 | 8.50 |
| 2024-10-01 | short | 12:00 | 5757.00 | 15:59 | 5760.50 | end of day 15:59 | −3.50 |
| 2024-09-11 | long | 14:00 | 5513.25 | 15:59 | 5556.75 | end of day 15:59 | 43.50 |
| 2024-09-11 | short | 11:00 | 5424.25 | 14:00 | 5513.25 | opposite cross | −89.00 |
| 2024-09-10 | long | 14:00 | 5484.50 | 15:59 | 5502.00 | end of day 15:59 | 17.50 |
| 2024-09-10 | short | 13:00 | 5466.00 | 14:00 | 5484.50 | opposite cross | −18.50 |
| 2024-09-03 | short | 10:00 | 5612.25 | 15:59 | 5543.25 | end of day 15:59 | 69.00 |
| 2024-08-29 | long | 13:00 | 5658.25 | 15:59 | 5610.25 | end of day 15:59 | −48.00 |
| 2024-08-28 | short | 12:00 | 5612.00 | 15:59 | 5611.50 | end of day 15:59 | 0.50 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 156 long trades, won 48.1% of them and made 1,099.00 points ($21,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,875.25 points on 358 trades on the 5-minute chart, -579.75 points on 48 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,674.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 182 short trades, won 45.6% of them and made 180.75 points ($9,038 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 131.75 points on 375 trades on the 5-minute chart, 80.75 points on 45 trades on the 1-hour chart and -413.50 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on the 15-minute chart took 329 trades, won 44.7% of them and finished 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of EMA 20 / 50 cross on ES futures?
The EMA 20/50 cross strategy won 46.1% of its 321 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 40.5% of 748 trades on the 5-minute chart, 44.1% of 93 trades on the 1-hour chart and 37.5% of 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the EMA 20/50 cross strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy made -1,273.25 points on 695 trades on the 5-minute chart, 2,209.50 points on 329 trades on the 15-minute chart, -729.75 points on 88 trades on the 1-hour chart and 694.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell EMA 20/50 cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,099.00 points on 156 trades (48.1% won) and the short trades made 1,110.50 points on 173 trades (41.6% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 695 on the 5-minute chart, 88 on the 1-hour chart and 8 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the EMA 20/50 cross strategy on NQ?
The EMA 20/50 cross strategy had a max drawdown of 1,991.25 points ($39,825 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,121.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,617.00 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,182.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the EMA 20/50 cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 321 trades, won 46.1% of them and made 207.00 points ($10,350 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the EMA 20/50 cross strategy took 329 trades, won 44.7% of them and made 2,209.50 points ($44,190 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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