Strategy library · Candles and price action
Fair value gap retrace backtest on NQ and ES futures
Fair value gap retrace
Also called: fair value gap strategy, FVG strategy, imbalance retrace strategy, buy when price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap, short when price first retraces into a bearish 3-candle fair value gap
What happens if you buy NQ every time price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap?
What it is
A fair value gap is a 3-candle gap in which the high of candle 1 is below the low of candle 3. This strategy goes long on the first retrace into the gap (short on the mirror), with the stop under candle 1's low and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 40.5% of them and finished 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 634 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 41.8% and made 1,395.75 points ($27,915 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,241 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 41.4% of them and finished 1,173.00 points ($58,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the fair value gap retrace strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: 3-candle gap (candle 1 high below candle 3 low). Long on the first retrace into the gap; short on the mirror. Exit: Stop under candle 1's low, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 2502 | 36.3% | 1.86 | 1.062 | 4,657.00 | $93,140 | 4,587.00 | 2626 | 36.1% | 0.26 | 1.044 | 687.00 | $34,350 | 700.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 1331 | 36.8% | — | — | 2,847.75 | $56,955 | 2,414.50 | 1422 | 36.1% | — | — | 262.50 | $13,125 | 445.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1171 | 35.7% | — | — | 1,809.25 | $36,185 | 3,708.50 | 1204 | 36.2% | — | — | 424.50 | $21,225 | 492.25 |
| 15 minute | 1146 | 40.5% | 1.06 | 1.027 | 1,210.50 | $24,210 | 6,402.25 | 1241 | 41.4% | 0.95 | 1.129 | 1,173.00 | $58,650 | 436.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 634 | 41.8% | — | — | 1,395.75 | $27,915 | 4,004.75 | 693 | 42.9% | — | — | 787.75 | $39,388 | 325.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 512 | 38.9% | — | — | −185.25 | −$3,705 | 3,782.00 | 548 | 39.6% | — | — | 385.25 | $19,263 | 356.50 |
| 1 hour | 472 | 47.3% | 5.73 | 1.138 | 2,705.75 | $54,115 | 1,129.75 | 472 | 46.8% | 1.57 | 1.180 | 739.25 | $36,963 | 496.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 262 | 50.0% | — | — | 3,708.00 | $74,160 | 1,062.50 | 261 | 49.8% | — | — | 889.50 | $44,475 | 235.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 210 | 43.8% | — | — | −1,002.25 | −$20,045 | 2,399.00 | 211 | 43.1% | — | — | −150.25 | −$7,512 | 631.75 |
| Daily | 27 | 37.0% | 211.44 | 1.556 | 5,709.00 | $114,180 | 4,373.25 | 31 | 32.3% | −0.23 | 0.997 | −7.00 | −$350 | 1,332.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 19 | 36.8% | — | — | 5,183.50 | $103,670 | 2,945.50 | 23 | 34.8% | — | — | 536.75 | $26,838 | 828.75 |
| Daily · shorts only | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | 525.50 | $10,510 | 1,565.00 | 8 | 25.0% | — | — | −543.75 | −$27,187 | 779.75 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 15 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 693 | 787.75 |
| Short | 548 | 385.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 5 | 0.00 |
| 2024-09 | 69 | −154.50 |
| 2024-10 | 49 | 51.75 |
| 2024-11 | 43 | 6.50 |
| 2024-12 | 53 | −11.00 |
| 2025-01 | 51 | −35.25 |
| 2025-02 | 44 | 197.75 |
| 2025-03 | 64 | −56.50 |
| 2025-04 | 57 | 623.75 |
| 2025-05 | 50 | −224.50 |
| 2025-06 | 57 | 104.50 |
| 2025-07 | 52 | −12.25 |
| 2025-08 | 46 | −74.75 |
| 2025-09 | 54 | 37.00 |
| 2025-10 | 57 | 20.00 |
| 2025-11 | 54 | 291.25 |
| 2025-12 | 48 | 12.75 |
| 2026-01 | 53 | 274.00 |
| 2026-02 | 46 | −159.25 |
| 2026-03 | 43 | 269.75 |
| 2026-04 | 44 | 53.50 |
| 2026-05 | 46 | 111.75 |
| 2026-06 | 55 | 3.00 |
| 2026-07 | 53 | −226.00 |
| 2026-08 | 48 | 69.75 |
Every trade, ES 15 minute1241 trades
Pick any of the 1241 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1241), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | short | 10:15 | 6704.25 | 12:21 | 6715.75 | stop | −11.50 |
| 2025-09-30 | short | 09:45 | 6708.00 | 09:49 | 6703.00 | target | 5.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 15:45 | 6710.75 | 15:47 | 6713.25 | stop | −2.50 |
| 2025-09-29 | long | 15:15 | 6703.00 | 15:15 | 6699.25 | stop | −3.75 |
| 2025-09-29 | long | 14:45 | 6710.75 | 15:13 | 6702.75 | stop | −8.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | short | 10:15 | 6725.50 | 13:02 | 6704.50 | target | 21.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | long | 13:30 | 6695.25 | 15:59 | 6696.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | long | 10:30 | 6666.25 | 12:25 | 6685.25 | target | 19.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | long | 10:15 | 6674.25 | 10:15 | 6672.00 | stop | −2.25 |
| 2025-09-26 | short | 09:45 | 6689.25 | 09:50 | 6697.75 | stop | −8.50 |
| 2025-09-25 | long | 09:45 | 6633.25 | 15:59 | 6660.50 | end of day 15:59 | 27.25 |
| 2025-09-24 | short | 12:30 | 6690.75 | 15:59 | 6692.00 | end of day 15:59 | −1.25 |
| 2025-09-24 | short | 10:30 | 6714.25 | 11:58 | 6685.25 | target | 29.00 |
| 2025-09-24 | long | 09:45 | 6717.75 | 09:49 | 6715.25 | stop | −2.50 |
| 2025-09-23 | long | 13:45 | 6708.25 | 13:45 | 6705.50 | stop | −2.75 |
| 2025-09-23 | long | 13:30 | 6719.00 | 13:35 | 6715.25 | stop | −3.75 |
| 2025-09-23 | long | 11:45 | 6741.50 | 13:16 | 6729.25 | stop | −12.25 |
| 2025-09-22 | long | 15:45 | 6752.50 | 15:59 | 6751.75 | end of day 15:59 | −0.75 |
| 2025-09-22 | long | 11:30 | 6733.50 | 15:11 | 6755.50 | target | 22.00 |
| 2025-09-19 | long | 12:45 | 6710.25 | 15:59 | 6721.75 | end of day 15:59 | 11.50 |
| 2025-09-18 | long | 10:00 | 6688.75 | 15:59 | 6692.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.50 |
| 2025-09-18 | long | 09:45 | 6675.50 | 09:50 | 6689.00 | target | 13.50 |
| 2025-09-17 | long | 15:00 | 6645.75 | 15:59 | 6660.25 | end of day 15:59 | 14.50 |
| 2025-09-17 | short | 11:00 | 6661.75 | 14:00 | 6676.00 | stop | −14.25 |
| 2025-09-16 | short | 10:30 | 6669.00 | 15:59 | 6668.25 | end of day 15:59 | 0.75 |
| 2025-09-15 | short | 13:45 | 6616.00 | 15:59 | 6622.00 | stop | −6.00 |
| 2025-09-12 | long | 15:30 | 6595.75 | 15:32 | 6592.50 | stop | −3.25 |
| 2025-09-12 | long | 15:00 | 6602.25 | 15:28 | 6595.75 | stop | −6.50 |
| 2025-09-11 | long | 12:00 | 6588.75 | 15:59 | 6592.25 | end of day 15:59 | 3.50 |
| 2025-09-10 | short | 15:45 | 6534.50 | 15:50 | 6538.00 | stop | −3.50 |
| 2025-09-10 | long | 14:30 | 6533.25 | 15:06 | 6530.00 | stop | −3.25 |
| 2025-09-10 | short | 11:45 | 6550.00 | 13:53 | 6536.50 | target | 13.50 |
| 2025-09-10 | long | 10:45 | 6554.75 | 11:16 | 6544.00 | stop | −10.75 |
| 2025-09-09 | short | 14:00 | 6515.50 | 15:53 | 6521.50 | stop | −6.00 |
| 2025-09-09 | long | 10:45 | 6494.25 | 10:52 | 6499.25 | target | 5.00 |
| 2025-09-09 | short | 09:45 | 6510.50 | 09:54 | 6505.00 | target | 5.50 |
| 2025-09-08 | short | 10:45 | 6510.75 | 15:59 | 6507.00 | end of day 15:59 | 3.75 |
| 2025-09-08 | long | 09:45 | 6504.50 | 10:18 | 6496.75 | stop | −7.75 |
| 2025-09-05 | short | 11:30 | 6481.00 | 15:59 | 6491.00 | end of day 15:59 | −10.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | long | 10:45 | 6471.00 | 11:10 | 6456.00 | stop | −15.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | long | 10:00 | 6530.00 | 10:11 | 6513.25 | stop | −16.75 |
| 2025-09-04 | long | 15:45 | 6504.00 | 15:59 | 6511.25 | end of day 15:59 | 7.25 |
| 2025-09-04 | short | 14:00 | 6493.00 | 15:14 | 6504.25 | stop | −11.25 |
| 2025-09-04 | short | 11:30 | 6483.50 | 11:30 | 6484.25 | stop | −0.75 |
| 2025-09-04 | short | 10:45 | 6475.00 | 11:17 | 6482.50 | stop | −7.50 |
| 2025-09-03 | short | 15:45 | 6444.25 | 15:50 | 6450.75 | stop | −6.50 |
| 2025-09-03 | short | 13:15 | 6447.25 | 13:43 | 6434.75 | target | 12.50 |
| 2025-09-03 | long | 11:15 | 6458.50 | 12:49 | 6437.75 | stop | −20.75 |
| 2025-09-03 | long | 10:00 | 6441.75 | 10:43 | 6459.25 | target | 17.50 |
| 2025-09-02 | long | 09:45 | 6393.75 | 15:59 | 6426.00 | end of day 15:59 | 32.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price first retraces into a bullish 3-candle fair value gap?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 634 long trades, won 41.8% of them and made 1,395.75 points ($27,915 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,847.75 points on 1,331 trades on the 5-minute chart, 3,708.00 points on 262 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,183.50 points on 19 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price first retraces into a bearish 3-candle fair value gap?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 548 short trades, won 39.6% of them and made 385.25 points ($19,263 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 424.50 points on 1,204 trades on the 5-minute chart, -150.25 points on 211 trades on the 1-hour chart and -543.75 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the fair value gap retrace strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy on the 15-minute chart took 1,146 trades, won 40.5% of them and finished 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Fair value gap retrace on ES futures?
The fair value gap retrace strategy won 41.4% of its 1,241 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 36.1% of 2,626 trades on the 5-minute chart, 46.8% of 472 trades on the 1-hour chart and 32.3% of 31 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the fair value gap retrace strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy made 4,657.00 points on 2,502 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,210.50 points on 1,146 trades on the 15-minute chart, 2,705.75 points on 472 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,709.00 points on 27 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell fair value gap retrace signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,395.75 points on 634 trades (41.8% won) and the short trades made -185.25 points on 512 trades (38.9% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the fair value gap retrace strategy take on NQ in two years?
The fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,502 on the 5-minute chart, 472 on the 1-hour chart and 27 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the fair value gap retrace strategy on NQ?
The fair value gap retrace strategy had a max drawdown of 6,402.25 points ($128,045 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,587.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,129.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,373.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the fair value gap retrace strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,241 trades, won 41.4% of them and made 1,173.00 points ($58,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the fair value gap retrace strategy took 1,146 trades, won 40.5% of them and made 1,210.50 points ($24,210 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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