Strategy library · Moving averages
Golden cross backtest on NQ and ES futures
Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200)
Also called: death cross, 50/200 moving average cross, 50 200 SMA crossover, golden cross death cross strategy, buy when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross), short when the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA (a death cross)
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross)?
What it is
A golden cross is the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-period SMA, and a death cross is the reverse. This strategy goes long on the golden cross, short on the death cross, and exits on the opposite cross.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, going long on the golden cross (SMA 50 above SMA 200) and short on the death cross, exiting on the opposite cross, took 4 trades on the daily chart: the longs made 3,701.50 points and the shorts made -9,065.75 points, -5,364.25 points in total (-$107,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 4 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 2 long trades on the daily chart won 100.0% and made 3,701.50 points ($74,030 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, going long on the golden cross (SMA 50 above SMA 200) and short on the death cross, exiting on the opposite cross, took 2 trades on the daily chart: the long made 1,235.50 points and the short made -1,200.00 points, 35.50 points in total ($1,775 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage (small sample: 2 trades). On the 1-hour chart it took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and finished -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. Every trade is listed on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the golden cross strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; every trade is listed on this page.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. Every trade is listed below. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long when SMA 50 crosses above SMA 200; short when it crosses below. Exit: Opposite cross.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 1 hour | 20 | 40.0% | 4.66 | 1.091 | 93.25 | $1,865 | 675.75 | 26 | 42.3% | −0.10 | 0.984 | −2.50 | −$125 | 60.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 13 | 38.5% | — | — | −309.75 | −$6,195 | 717.75 | 10 | 40.0% | — | — | −23.75 | −$1,187 | 34.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 7 | 42.9% | — | — | 403.00 | $8,060 | 68.75 | 16 | 43.8% | — | — | 21.25 | $1,063 | 37.50 |
| Daily | 4 | 50.0% | −1,341.06 | 0.408 | −5,364.25 | −$107,285 | 8,533.50 | 2 | 50.0% | 17.75 | 1.030 | 35.50 | $1,775 | 1,200.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 2 | 100.0% | — | — | 3,701.50 | $74,030 | 0.00 | 1 | 100.0% | — | — | 1,235.50 | $61,775 | 0.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 2 | 0.0% | — | — | −9,065.75 | −$181,315 | 9,065.75 | 1 | 0.0% | — | — | −1,200.00 | −$60,000 | 1,200.00 |
NQ Daily: small sample (4 trades). ES Daily: small sample (2 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 1 hour: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 10 | −23.75 |
| Short | 16 | 21.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 2 | −19.25 |
| 2024-12 | 2 | 27.75 |
| 2025-01 | 4 | −60.50 |
| 2025-03 | 1 | 7.50 |
| 2025-04 | 2 | 26.50 |
| 2025-05 | 2 | 4.75 |
| 2025-06 | 2 | −5.00 |
| 2025-07 | 2 | −10.25 |
| 2025-08 | 1 | −1.25 |
| 2025-09 | 1 | −22.25 |
| 2025-11 | 2 | 54.00 |
| 2025-12 | 1 | 11.50 |
| 2026-02 | 2 | −15.00 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | −2.75 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | 1.75 |
Every trade, ES 1 hour26 trades
Pick any of the 26 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (26), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | short | 15:00 | 7717.00 | 15:59 | 7715.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.75 |
| 2026-06-15 | long | 15:00 | 7567.25 | 15:59 | 7564.50 | end of day 15:59 | −2.75 |
| 2026-02-24 | long | 14:00 | 6903.75 | 15:59 | 6903.25 | end of day 15:59 | −0.50 |
| 2026-02-04 | short | 14:00 | 6891.75 | 15:59 | 6906.25 | end of day 15:59 | −14.50 |
| 2025-12-11 | long | 14:00 | 6896.50 | 15:59 | 6908.00 | end of day 15:59 | 11.50 |
| 2025-11-14 | short | 13:00 | 6779.25 | 15:59 | 6758.00 | end of day 15:59 | 21.25 |
| 2025-11-04 | short | 10:00 | 6836.25 | 15:59 | 6803.50 | end of day 15:59 | 32.75 |
| 2025-09-02 | short | 15:00 | 6403.75 | 15:59 | 6426.00 | end of day 15:59 | −22.25 |
| 2025-08-01 | short | 10:00 | 6262.25 | 15:59 | 6263.50 | end of day 15:59 | −1.25 |
| 2025-07-17 | long | 15:00 | 6341.00 | 15:59 | 6342.25 | end of day 15:59 | 1.25 |
| 2025-07-17 | short | 13:00 | 6329.50 | 15:00 | 6341.00 | opposite cross | −11.50 |
| 2025-06-16 | short | 15:00 | 6035.50 | 15:59 | 6038.00 | end of day 15:59 | −2.50 |
| 2025-06-16 | long | 13:00 | 6038.00 | 15:00 | 6035.50 | opposite cross | −2.50 |
| 2025-05-28 | long | 14:00 | 5921.25 | 15:59 | 5901.50 | end of day 15:59 | −19.75 |
| 2025-05-22 | short | 14:00 | 5883.00 | 15:59 | 5858.50 | end of day 15:59 | 24.50 |
| 2025-04-21 | short | 11:00 | 5190.00 | 15:59 | 5183.50 | end of day 15:59 | 6.50 |
| 2025-04-11 | long | 13:00 | 5370.00 | 15:59 | 5390.00 | end of day 15:59 | 20.00 |
| 2025-03-28 | short | 13:00 | 5632.00 | 15:59 | 5624.50 | end of day 15:59 | 7.50 |
| 2025-01-28 | short | 12:00 | 6076.75 | 15:59 | 6096.00 | end of day 15:59 | −19.25 |
| 2025-01-16 | long | 13:00 | 5989.75 | 15:59 | 5976.25 | end of day 15:59 | −13.50 |
| 2025-01-08 | short | 11:00 | 5950.00 | 15:59 | 5959.00 | end of day 15:59 | −9.00 |
| 2025-01-07 | long | 12:00 | 5973.75 | 15:59 | 5955.00 | end of day 15:59 | −18.75 |
| 2024-12-30 | short | 13:00 | 5987.00 | 15:59 | 5958.00 | end of day 15:59 | 29.00 |
| 2024-12-13 | short | 14:00 | 6054.50 | 15:59 | 6055.75 | end of day 15:59 | −1.25 |
| 2024-10-23 | short | 14:00 | 5816.75 | 15:59 | 5837.25 | end of day 15:59 | −20.50 |
| 2024-10-09 | long | 12:00 | 5838.50 | 15:59 | 5839.75 | end of day 15:59 | 1.25 |
Page 1 of 1
The other trades quoted above
Every trade, NQ daily4 trades
Newest first. Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | long | 2026-04-30 18:00 | 27631.75 | 2026-10-07 16:59 | 31403.75 | window end | 3,169.25 |
| 2026-04-06 | short | 2026-04-05 18:00 | 24093.50 | 2026-04-30 18:00 | 27631.75 | opposite cross | −3,538.25 |
| 2025-07-01 | long | 2025-06-30 18:00 | 22867.50 | 2026-04-05 18:00 | 24093.50 | opposite cross | 532.25 |
| 2025-04-07 | short | 2025-04-06 18:00 | 17100.00 | 2025-06-30 18:00 | 22867.50 | opposite cross | −5,527.50 |
Every trade, NQ 1 hour20 trades
Newest first. Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | long | 13:00 | 29576.25 | 15:59 | 29568.75 | end of day 15:59 | −7.50 |
| 2026-08-03 | long | 10:00 | 28623.75 | 15:59 | 28901.25 | end of day 15:59 | 277.50 |
| 2026-06-15 | long | 11:00 | 30475.75 | 15:59 | 30567.50 | end of day 15:59 | 91.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | short | 15:00 | 29191.75 | 15:59 | 29015.75 | end of day 15:59 | 176.00 |
| 2026-04-02 | long | 11:00 | 24174.50 | 15:59 | 24220.75 | end of day 15:59 | 46.25 |
| 2026-03-18 | long | 12:00 | 24899.00 | 15:59 | 24651.50 | end of day 15:59 | −247.50 |
| 2026-02-24 | long | 13:00 | 25046.00 | 15:59 | 25030.00 | end of day 15:59 | −16.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | long | 14:00 | 25302.00 | 15:59 | 25278.50 | end of day 15:59 | −23.50 |
| 2026-01-23 | long | 13:00 | 25693.75 | 15:59 | 25735.50 | end of day 15:59 | 41.75 |
| 2026-01-07 | long | 12:00 | 25969.75 | 15:59 | 25835.00 | end of day 15:59 | −134.75 |
| 2025-11-13 | short | 14:00 | 25070.00 | 15:59 | 25100.00 | end of day 15:59 | −30.00 |
| 2025-08-27 | long | 14:00 | 23621.25 | 15:59 | 23620.25 | end of day 15:59 | −1.00 |
| 2025-08-19 | short | 15:00 | 23462.00 | 15:59 | 23470.25 | end of day 15:59 | −8.25 |
| 2025-06-18 | short | 15:00 | 21918.50 | 15:59 | 21949.00 | end of day 15:59 | −30.50 |
| 2025-06-17 | long | 12:00 | 22097.50 | 15:59 | 21956.50 | end of day 15:59 | −141.00 |
| 2025-03-28 | short | 11:00 | 19605.25 | 15:59 | 19461.50 | end of day 15:59 | 143.75 |
| 2025-03-19 | long | 11:00 | 19798.00 | 15:59 | 19953.50 | end of day 15:59 | 155.50 |
| 2025-01-08 | short | 14:00 | 21327.25 | 15:59 | 21360.25 | end of day 15:59 | −33.00 |
| 2025-01-07 | long | 10:00 | 21710.25 | 15:59 | 21359.00 | end of day 15:59 | −351.25 |
| 2024-12-19 | short | 12:00 | 21561.75 | 15:59 | 21376.75 | end of day 15:59 | 185.00 |
Every trade, ES daily2 trades
Newest first. Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-08 | long | 2025-07-07 18:00 | 6262.50 | 2026-08-27 16:59 | 7733.00 | window end | 1,235.50 |
| 2025-04-07 | short | 2025-04-06 18:00 | 5007.00 | 2025-07-07 18:00 | 6262.50 | opposite cross | −1,200.00 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA (a golden cross)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 1-hour chart, the golden cross strategy took 13 long trades, won 38.5% of them and made -309.75 points (-$6,195 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 3,701.50 points on 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA (a death cross)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 1-hour chart, the golden cross strategy took 16 short trades, won 43.8% of them and made 21.25 points ($1,063 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -1,200.00 points on 1 trade on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the golden cross strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy on the 1-hour chart took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and finished 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Golden cross / death cross (SMA 50 / 200) on ES futures?
The golden cross strategy won 42.3% of its 26 trades on the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 50.0% of 2 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the golden cross strategy better on the 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy made 93.25 points on 20 trades on the 1-hour chart and -5,364.25 points on 4 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell golden cross signals on NQ?
On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -309.75 points on 13 trades (38.5% won) and the short trades made 403.00 points on 7 trades (42.9% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the golden cross strategy take on NQ in two years?
The golden cross strategy took 20 trades on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 4 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the golden cross strategy on NQ?
The golden cross strategy had a max drawdown of 675.75 points ($13,515 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 8,533.50 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the golden cross strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 1-hour chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the golden cross strategy took 26 trades, won 42.3% of them and made -2.50 points (-$125 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 1-hour chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the golden cross strategy took 20 trades, won 40.0% of them and made 93.25 points ($1,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
Want your own rules tested the same way?