Strategy library · Trend and breakouts
Keltner channel breakout backtest on NQ and ES futures
Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR)
Also called: Keltner breakout strategy, Keltner channel strategy, EMA 20 2 ATR breakout, buy when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), short when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
What it is
A Keltner channel places bands 2 average true ranges (ATR) above and below a 20-period EMA. This strategy goes long on a close above the upper band and short on a close below the lower band, and exits on a close back through the middle line.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.5% of them and finished 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 210 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 49.1% and made 1,788.50 points ($35,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 446 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 46.0% of them and finished 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Keltner channel breakout strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long on a close above the upper band; short below the lower band. Exit: Close back through the middle line.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 869 | 41.7% | 7.64 | 1.224 | 6,637.00 | $132,740 | 2,176.00 | 914 | 39.3% | 1.04 | 1.157 | 950.75 | $47,538 | 441.25 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 427 | 42.4% | — | — | 2,898.25 | $57,965 | 1,399.75 | 453 | 41.9% | — | — | 800.25 | $40,013 | 293.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 442 | 41.0% | — | — | 3,738.75 | $74,775 | 1,574.25 | 461 | 36.7% | — | — | 150.50 | $7,525 | 428.00 |
| 15 minute | 433 | 42.5% | 3.87 | 1.069 | 1,674.50 | $33,490 | 2,211.50 | 446 | 46.0% | 1.29 | 1.122 | 577.00 | $28,850 | 520.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 210 | 49.1% | — | — | 1,788.50 | $35,770 | 2,092.25 | 221 | 49.3% | — | — | 79.50 | $3,975 | 339.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 223 | 36.3% | — | — | −114.00 | −$2,280 | 3,176.25 | 225 | 42.7% | — | — | 497.50 | $24,875 | 303.50 |
| 1 hour | 245 | 52.2% | 4.88 | 1.091 | 1,195.00 | $23,900 | 1,761.75 | 244 | 51.6% | −0.46 | 0.963 | −112.25 | −$5,612 | 551.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 141 | 58.2% | — | — | 573.75 | $11,475 | 1,246.50 | 136 | 57.4% | — | — | −190.00 | −$9,500 | 247.75 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 104 | 44.2% | — | — | 621.25 | $12,425 | 1,551.25 | 108 | 44.4% | — | — | 77.75 | $3,888 | 368.25 |
| Daily | 13 | 46.2% | −130.29 | 0.726 | −1,693.75 | −$33,875 | 3,448.25 | 12 | 33.3% | −40.25 | 0.550 | −483.00 | −$24,150 | 744.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 8 | 62.5% | — | — | 2,426.50 | $48,530 | 1,056.00 | 7 | 42.9% | — | — | 43.75 | $2,188 | 280.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 5 | 20.0% | — | — | −4,120.25 | −$82,405 | 4,466.25 | 5 | 20.0% | — | — | −526.75 | −$26,337 | 526.75 |
NQ Daily: small sample (13 trades). ES Daily: small sample (12 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES daily: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 7 | 43.75 |
| Short | 5 | −526.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 1 | −172.25 |
| 2024-11 | 1 | −108.00 |
| 2024-12 | 1 | −149.75 |
| 2025-02 | 1 | 121.25 |
| 2025-04 | 1 | −106.00 |
| 2025-05 | 1 | 70.50 |
| 2025-06 | 1 | 33.75 |
| 2025-09 | 1 | −41.25 |
| 2025-10 | 1 | −83.25 |
| 2026-03 | 1 | −309.00 |
| 2026-04 | 1 | 364.00 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | −103.00 |
Every trade, ES daily12 trades
Daily results show the table and the equity line; there is no chart viewer for them yet.
All trades (12), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | long | 2026-08-04 18:00 | 7772.00 | 2026-08-20 18:00 | 7669.00 | close through mid | −103.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | long | 2026-04-14 18:00 | 7004.00 | 2026-06-07 18:00 | 7368.00 | close through mid | 364.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | short | 2026-03-29 18:00 | 6380.00 | 2026-04-07 18:00 | 6689.00 | close through mid | −309.00 |
| 2025-10-13 | short | 2025-10-12 18:00 | 6632.00 | 2025-10-15 18:00 | 6715.25 | close through mid | −83.25 |
| 2025-09-16 | long | 2025-09-15 18:00 | 6673.25 | 2025-10-12 18:00 | 6632.00 | exit and reverse | −41.25 |
| 2025-06-30 | long | 2025-06-29 18:00 | 6223.25 | 2025-08-03 18:00 | 6257.00 | close through mid | 33.75 |
| 2025-05-13 | long | 2025-05-12 18:00 | 5868.00 | 2025-06-19 18:00 | 5994.00 | close through mid | 70.50 |
| 2025-04-04 | short | 2025-04-03 18:00 | 5423.00 | 2025-04-24 18:00 | 5529.00 | close through mid | −106.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | short | 2025-02-27 18:00 | 5883.00 | 2025-03-24 18:00 | 5813.00 | close through mid | 121.25 |
| 2024-12-19 | short | 2024-12-18 18:00 | 5949.50 | 2024-12-25 18:00 | 6099.25 | close through mid | −149.75 |
| 2024-11-08 | long | 2024-11-07 18:00 | 6007.75 | 2024-11-17 18:00 | 5899.75 | close through mid | −108.00 |
| 2024-10-15 | long | 2024-10-14 18:00 | 5914.25 | 2024-10-31 18:00 | 5742.00 | close through mid | −172.25 |
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Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 210 long trades, won 49.1% of them and made 1,788.50 points ($35,770 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 2,898.25 points on 427 trades on the 5-minute chart, 573.75 points on 141 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,426.50 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 225 short trades, won 42.7% of them and made 497.50 points ($24,875 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 150.50 points on 461 trades on the 5-minute chart, 77.75 points on 108 trades on the 1-hour chart and -526.75 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Keltner channel breakout strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and finished 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Keltner channel breakout (EMA 20, 2 ATR) on ES futures?
The Keltner channel breakout strategy won 46.0% of its 446 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 39.3% of 914 trades on the 5-minute chart, 51.6% of 244 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Keltner channel breakout strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy made 6,637.00 points on 869 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,674.50 points on 433 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,195.00 points on 245 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,693.75 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Keltner channel breakout signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,788.50 points on 210 trades (49.1% won) and the short trades made -114.00 points on 223 trades (36.3% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Keltner channel breakout strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 869 on the 5-minute chart, 245 on the 1-hour chart and 13 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Keltner channel breakout strategy on NQ?
The Keltner channel breakout strategy had a max drawdown of 2,211.50 points ($44,230 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,176.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,761.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,448.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Keltner channel breakout strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 446 trades, won 46.0% of them and made 577.00 points ($28,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel breakout strategy took 433 trades, won 42.5% of them and made 1,674.50 points ($33,490 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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