Strategy library · Mean reversion and bands
Keltner channel reversion backtest on NQ and ES futures
Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR)
Also called: Keltner channel mean reversion, Keltner fade strategy, EMA 20 2 ATR reversion, buy when price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR), short when price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
What it is
A Keltner channel places bands 2 average true ranges (ATR) above and below a 20-period EMA. This strategy goes long on a close below the lower band and short on a close above the upper band, and exits on a touch of the middle line.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 60.9% of them and finished -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 227 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 66.1% and made 70.00 points ($1,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 470 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 55.7% of them and finished -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the Keltner channel reversion strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long on a close below the lower band; short above the upper band. Exit: Touch of the middle line.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 928 | 61.3% | −5.20 | 0.852 | −4,823.00 | −$96,460 | 5,777.75 | 981 | 62.2% | −0.72 | 0.888 | −708.25 | −$35,412 | 960.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 466 | 63.7% | — | — | −2,839.50 | −$56,790 | 3,709.75 | 493 | 64.7% | — | — | −88.50 | −$4,425 | 396.00 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 462 | 58.9% | — | — | −1,983.50 | −$39,670 | 3,386.00 | 488 | 59.6% | — | — | −619.75 | −$30,987 | 775.50 |
| 15 minute | 445 | 60.9% | −4.48 | 0.917 | −1,993.25 | −$39,865 | 3,793.25 | 470 | 55.7% | −0.77 | 0.925 | −361.75 | −$18,087 | 995.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 227 | 66.1% | — | — | 70.00 | $1,400 | 2,842.00 | 234 | 58.1% | — | — | −284.75 | −$14,237 | 640.75 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 218 | 55.5% | — | — | −2,063.25 | −$41,265 | 2,922.00 | 236 | 53.4% | — | — | −77.00 | −$3,850 | 442.50 |
| 1 hour | 248 | 50.0% | −0.01 | 1.000 | −2.50 | −$50 | 1,901.25 | 246 | 48.4% | −0.23 | 0.981 | −55.50 | −$2,775 | 415.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 105 | 57.1% | — | — | 152.75 | $3,055 | 2,087.25 | 108 | 54.6% | — | — | −110.75 | −$5,537 | 341.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 143 | 44.8% | — | — | −155.25 | −$3,105 | 1,541.25 | 138 | 43.5% | — | — | 55.25 | $2,763 | 183.25 |
| Daily | 13 | 53.9% | −74.81 | 0.841 | −972.50 | −$19,450 | 3,669.25 | 12 | 66.7% | 11.06 | 1.182 | 132.75 | $6,638 | 481.50 |
| Daily · longs only | 5 | 80.0% | — | — | 3,572.50 | $71,450 | 485.25 | 5 | 60.0% | — | — | 331.00 | $16,550 | 132.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | −4,545.00 | −$90,900 | 5,136.50 | 7 | 71.4% | — | — | −198.25 | −$9,912 | 558.00 |
NQ Daily: small sample (13 trades). ES Daily: small sample (12 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 466 | −2,839.50 |
| Short | 462 | −1,983.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 34 | −230.00 |
| 2024-11 | 35 | −226.00 |
| 2024-12 | 41 | −822.50 |
| 2025-01 | 39 | 83.00 |
| 2025-02 | 38 | −698.25 |
| 2025-03 | 42 | 965.75 |
| 2025-04 | 42 | −434.75 |
| 2025-05 | 34 | −177.00 |
| 2025-06 | 41 | 758.25 |
| 2025-07 | 31 | −173.00 |
| 2025-08 | 38 | 36.00 |
| 2025-09 | 36 | −40.25 |
| 2025-10 | 42 | −523.25 |
| 2025-11 | 37 | −1,361.00 |
| 2025-12 | 38 | 113.00 |
| 2026-01 | 43 | −424.75 |
| 2026-02 | 39 | −364.50 |
| 2026-03 | 41 | 274.50 |
| 2026-04 | 43 | 255.00 |
| 2026-05 | 43 | 90.25 |
| 2026-06 | 33 | −1,272.25 |
| 2026-07 | 42 | −425.75 |
| 2026-08 | 31 | −380.75 |
| 2026-09 | 36 | −171.00 |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 326.25 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute928 trades
Pick any of the 928 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (928), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | long | 10:55 | 27028.00 | 12:05 | 27072.50 | mid line touch | 44.50 |
| 2026-04-27 | long | 09:35 | 27369.00 | 09:59 | 27407.75 | mid line touch | 38.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | short | 11:45 | 27384.25 | 13:21 | 27384.75 | mid line touch | −0.50 |
| 2026-04-23 | long | 13:10 | 26953.75 | 14:01 | 26931.00 | mid line touch | −22.75 |
| 2026-04-23 | short | 11:20 | 27137.75 | 11:46 | 27091.50 | mid line touch | 46.25 |
| 2026-04-22 | short | 10:20 | 26946.00 | 12:01 | 26967.75 | mid line touch | −21.75 |
| 2026-04-21 | long | 15:45 | 26573.75 | 15:59 | 26642.25 | end of day 15:59 | 68.50 |
| 2026-04-21 | long | 13:20 | 26610.25 | 13:38 | 26685.00 | mid line touch | 74.75 |
| 2026-04-21 | long | 11:00 | 26737.75 | 12:01 | 26759.25 | mid line touch | 21.50 |
| 2026-04-21 | long | 09:35 | 26759.75 | 09:55 | 26806.50 | mid line touch | 46.75 |
| 2026-04-20 | long | 11:05 | 26605.25 | 11:26 | 26687.50 | mid line touch | 82.25 |
| 2026-04-20 | short | 09:35 | 26810.50 | 09:39 | 26753.00 | mid line touch | 57.50 |
| 2026-04-17 | long | 13:25 | 26757.50 | 13:46 | 26818.75 | mid line touch | 61.25 |
| 2026-04-17 | short | 10:45 | 26832.25 | 11:58 | 26814.50 | mid line touch | 17.75 |
| 2026-04-16 | long | 14:25 | 26376.75 | 14:41 | 26440.50 | mid line touch | 63.75 |
| 2026-04-16 | short | 11:25 | 26490.00 | 12:33 | 26494.25 | mid line touch | −4.25 |
| 2026-04-16 | long | 09:55 | 26282.50 | 10:12 | 26378.50 | mid line touch | 96.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | short | 14:35 | 26274.75 | 15:59 | 26364.25 | end of day 15:59 | −89.50 |
| 2026-04-15 | short | 10:25 | 26121.00 | 12:33 | 26190.00 | mid line touch | −69.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | short | 09:40 | 26051.75 | 09:44 | 26001.75 | mid line touch | 50.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | short | 15:25 | 25984.50 | 15:51 | 25954.50 | mid line touch | 30.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | short | 11:30 | 25833.50 | 14:14 | 25936.75 | mid line touch | −103.25 |
| 2026-04-14 | short | 09:35 | 25718.00 | 11:06 | 25765.00 | mid line touch | −47.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | short | 14:55 | 25448.75 | 15:59 | 25538.25 | end of day 15:59 | −89.50 |
| 2026-04-13 | short | 12:30 | 25385.25 | 14:20 | 25403.50 | mid line touch | −18.25 |
| 2026-04-13 | short | 09:50 | 25271.50 | 11:54 | 25305.25 | mid line touch | −33.75 |
| 2026-04-13 | short | 09:35 | 25221.75 | 09:45 | 25171.00 | mid line touch | 50.75 |
| 2026-04-10 | long | 12:45 | 25227.75 | 13:45 | 25258.00 | mid line touch | 30.25 |
| 2026-04-09 | short | 11:55 | 25176.50 | 13:31 | 25195.00 | mid line touch | −18.50 |
| 2026-04-08 | long | 14:45 | 25017.75 | 15:36 | 25015.50 | mid line touch | −2.25 |
| 2026-04-08 | short | 12:55 | 25147.25 | 13:17 | 25107.25 | mid line touch | 40.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | long | 09:45 | 25099.25 | 11:36 | 25050.00 | mid line touch | −49.25 |
| 2026-04-07 | long | 14:55 | 24113.50 | 15:16 | 24162.25 | mid line touch | 48.75 |
| 2026-04-07 | long | 10:05 | 24079.00 | 11:15 | 24077.25 | mid line touch | −1.75 |
| 2026-04-06 | long | 13:15 | 24226.50 | 13:25 | 24295.25 | mid line touch | 68.75 |
| 2026-04-02 | short | 10:00 | 23897.75 | 11:51 | 24100.75 | mid line touch | −203.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | long | 14:05 | 24229.00 | 15:19 | 24207.25 | mid line touch | −21.75 |
| 2026-03-31 | short | 12:40 | 23667.50 | 15:59 | 23909.75 | end of day 15:59 | −242.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | short | 09:50 | 23530.75 | 10:43 | 23495.25 | mid line touch | 35.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | long | 13:25 | 23215.75 | 15:47 | 23109.75 | mid line touch | −106.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | long | 09:45 | 23393.25 | 10:57 | 23362.00 | mid line touch | −31.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | long | 13:30 | 23379.00 | 14:43 | 23389.00 | mid line touch | 10.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | long | 10:00 | 23481.00 | 10:50 | 23533.25 | mid line touch | 52.25 |
| 2026-03-26 | long | 12:40 | 23988.75 | 15:59 | 23786.75 | end of day 15:59 | −202.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | short | 09:55 | 24231.25 | 09:59 | 24140.25 | mid line touch | 91.00 |
| 2026-03-25 | long | 15:05 | 24332.75 | 15:20 | 24389.00 | mid line touch | 56.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | long | 11:20 | 24316.50 | 11:30 | 24435.75 | mid line touch | 119.25 |
| 2026-03-24 | short | 14:40 | 24344.25 | 14:56 | 24259.50 | mid line touch | 84.75 |
| 2026-03-24 | long | 13:20 | 24172.00 | 13:55 | 24224.50 | mid line touch | 52.50 |
| 2026-03-24 | long | 09:50 | 24155.25 | 10:00 | 24252.50 | mid line touch | 97.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time price closes below the lower Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 227 long trades, won 66.1% of them and made 70.00 points ($1,400 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -2,839.50 points on 466 trades on the 5-minute chart, 152.75 points on 105 trades on the 1-hour chart and 3,572.50 points on 5 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time price closes above the upper Keltner Channel (EMA 20, 2 ATR)?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 236 short trades, won 53.4% of them and made -77.00 points (-$3,850 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -619.75 points on 488 trades on the 5-minute chart, 55.25 points on 138 trades on the 1-hour chart and -198.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the Keltner channel reversion strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy on the 15-minute chart took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and finished -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Keltner reversion (EMA 20, 2 ATR) on ES futures?
The Keltner channel reversion strategy won 55.7% of its 470 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 62.2% of 981 trades on the 5-minute chart, 48.4% of 246 trades on the 1-hour chart and 66.7% of 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the Keltner channel reversion strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy made -4,823.00 points on 928 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,993.25 points on 445 trades on the 15-minute chart, -2.50 points on 248 trades on the 1-hour chart and -972.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell Keltner channel reversion signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 70.00 points on 227 trades (66.1% won) and the short trades made -2,063.25 points on 218 trades (55.5% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the Keltner channel reversion strategy take on NQ in two years?
The Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 928 on the 5-minute chart, 248 on the 1-hour chart and 13 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the Keltner channel reversion strategy on NQ?
The Keltner channel reversion strategy had a max drawdown of 3,793.25 points ($75,865 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 5,777.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 1,901.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,669.25 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the Keltner channel reversion strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 470 trades, won 55.7% of them and made -361.75 points (-$18,087 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the Keltner channel reversion strategy took 445 trades, won 60.9% of them and made -1,993.25 points (-$39,865 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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