Strategy library · Candles and price action
Hammer and shooting star backtest on NQ and ES futures
Hammer / shooting star
Also called: hammer candle strategy, shooting star candle strategy, hammer candlestick pattern, buy when a hammer forms at a 10-bar low, short when a shooting star forms at a 10-bar high
What happens if you buy NQ every time a hammer forms at a 10-bar low?
What it is
A hammer has its body in the top third of the bar with a lower wick at least 2x the body, and a shooting star is the mirror. This strategy goes long on a hammer at a 10-bar low and short on a shooting star at a 10-bar high, with the stop beyond the wick and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.6% of them and finished -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 184 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.6% and made -1,002.25 points (-$20,045 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 357 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.9% of them and finished 52.25 points ($2,613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the hammer and shooting star strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Hammer (body in the top third, lower wick at least 2x the body) at a 10-bar low: long. Shooting star at a 10-bar high: short. Exit: Stop beyond the wick, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 992 | 32.6% | −1.70 | 0.914 | −1,685.00 | −$33,700 | 2,411.75 | 944 | 31.8% | −0.47 | 0.890 | −445.00 | −$22,250 | 650.00 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 518 | 32.2% | — | — | −1,239.50 | −$24,790 | 1,898.00 | 508 | 32.7% | — | — | −188.75 | −$9,437 | 382.75 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 474 | 32.9% | — | — | −445.50 | −$8,910 | 1,001.50 | 436 | 30.7% | — | — | −256.25 | −$12,812 | 389.25 |
| 15 minute | 348 | 35.6% | −8.42 | 0.766 | −2,930.25 | −$58,605 | 3,761.25 | 357 | 38.9% | 0.15 | 1.022 | 52.25 | $2,613 | 364.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 184 | 38.6% | — | — | −1,002.25 | −$20,045 | 2,196.50 | 172 | 40.7% | — | — | 144.50 | $7,225 | 210.00 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 164 | 32.3% | — | — | −1,928.00 | −$38,560 | 2,542.75 | 185 | 37.3% | — | — | −92.25 | −$4,612 | 268.75 |
| 1 hour | 124 | 47.6% | 11.43 | 1.294 | 1,417.00 | $28,340 | 640.25 | 118 | 50.0% | 2.37 | 1.288 | 279.50 | $13,975 | 219.75 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 74 | 52.7% | — | — | 1,192.00 | $23,840 | 601.00 | 70 | 50.0% | — | — | 133.00 | $6,650 | 169.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 50 | 40.0% | — | — | 225.00 | $4,500 | 798.25 | 48 | 50.0% | — | — | 146.50 | $7,325 | 129.50 |
| Daily | 17 | 29.4% | −121.56 | 0.534 | −2,066.50 | −$41,330 | 3,037.00 | 11 | 27.3% | −26.11 | 0.498 | −287.25 | −$14,362 | 509.25 |
| Daily · longs only | 11 | 27.3% | — | — | −1,478.25 | −$29,565 | 2,630.75 | 4 | 25.0% | — | — | −120.00 | −$6,000 | 277.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 6 | 33.3% | — | — | −588.25 | −$11,765 | 729.75 | 7 | 28.6% | — | — | −167.25 | −$8,362 | 232.25 |
NQ Daily: small sample (17 trades). ES Daily: small sample (11 trades).
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 518 | −1,239.50 |
| Short | 474 | −445.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 32 | −491.50 |
| 2024-11 | 45 | 8.25 |
| 2024-12 | 40 | 141.50 |
| 2025-01 | 37 | 155.50 |
| 2025-02 | 34 | 157.25 |
| 2025-03 | 45 | −214.50 |
| 2025-04 | 39 | −167.00 |
| 2025-05 | 44 | −46.50 |
| 2025-06 | 40 | 19.50 |
| 2025-07 | 55 | 208.00 |
| 2025-08 | 53 | −59.25 |
| 2025-09 | 64 | 270.50 |
| 2025-10 | 44 | −291.25 |
| 2025-11 | 41 | −474.00 |
| 2025-12 | 31 | 89.75 |
| 2026-01 | 46 | 60.25 |
| 2026-02 | 34 | −199.00 |
| 2026-03 | 28 | −179.25 |
| 2026-04 | 42 | 331.75 |
| 2026-05 | 38 | −56.75 |
| 2026-06 | 37 | −213.75 |
| 2026-07 | 46 | −59.00 |
| 2026-08 | 37 | −270.25 |
| 2026-09 | 31 | −472.00 |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 66.75 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute992 trades
Pick any of the 992 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (992), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | long | 12:50 | 29446.00 | 13:12 | 29378.75 | stop | −67.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 15:15 | 30637.25 | 15:22 | 30615.00 | stop | −22.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 11:50 | 30605.00 | 12:18 | 30567.75 | stop | −37.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | long | 09:40 | 30734.50 | 09:44 | 30665.75 | stop | −68.75 |
| 2026-06-02 | short | 14:15 | 30648.25 | 14:38 | 30616.25 | target | 32.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | 13:30 | 30643.00 | 13:32 | 30631.75 | stop | −11.25 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | 12:25 | 30671.75 | 12:35 | 30650.75 | stop | −21.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | long | 15:40 | 30597.75 | 15:45 | 30583.00 | stop | −14.75 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 11:40 | 30537.50 | 11:50 | 30503.50 | target | 34.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 09:50 | 30428.25 | 09:57 | 30349.75 | target | 78.50 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 13:35 | 30367.50 | 13:44 | 30341.00 | stop | −26.50 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | 13:00 | 30398.00 | 13:20 | 30375.25 | stop | −22.75 |
| 2026-05-29 | short | 09:35 | 30375.00 | 09:35 | 30426.25 | stop | −51.25 |
| 2026-05-28 | long | 15:20 | 30284.50 | 15:27 | 30305.50 | target | 21.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | short | 13:55 | 30332.75 | 14:00 | 30308.75 | target | 24.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | short | 12:50 | 30306.75 | 12:58 | 30318.75 | stop | −12.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 11:35 | 29997.25 | 11:36 | 29974.00 | stop | −23.25 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 11:10 | 30044.00 | 11:17 | 30003.50 | stop | −40.50 |
| 2026-05-26 | long | 09:40 | 29859.75 | 09:42 | 29926.25 | target | 66.50 |
| 2026-05-25 | long | 12:05 | 29922.25 | 12:48 | 29941.25 | target | 19.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | long | 10:10 | 29564.25 | 10:23 | 29515.25 | stop | −49.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | long | 12:30 | 29236.25 | 12:45 | 29289.25 | target | 53.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | short | 10:35 | 29214.25 | 10:55 | 29263.25 | stop | −49.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | long | 14:50 | 29016.00 | 14:53 | 28992.00 | stop | −24.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | long | 10:25 | 28727.75 | 11:16 | 28857.75 | target | 130.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | long | 15:15 | 29321.50 | 15:17 | 29299.75 | stop | −21.75 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 11:40 | 29332.25 | 11:53 | 29232.25 | target | 100.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 11:35 | 29342.25 | 11:36 | 29372.25 | stop | −30.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 11:25 | 29323.25 | 11:31 | 29361.25 | stop | −38.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | 10:25 | 29340.75 | 10:50 | 29256.25 | target | 84.50 |
| 2026-05-14 | short | 15:25 | 29717.75 | 15:59 | 29682.75 | target | 35.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | short | 14:00 | 29730.75 | 14:01 | 29686.75 | target | 44.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | short | 12:25 | 29757.75 | 12:33 | 29708.75 | target | 49.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | short | 11:30 | 29756.75 | 12:05 | 29774.00 | stop | −17.25 |
| 2026-05-13 | short | 10:30 | 29236.00 | 10:34 | 29268.75 | stop | −32.75 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | 15:20 | 29044.75 | 15:30 | 29064.25 | stop | −19.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | short | 15:15 | 29294.50 | 15:16 | 29304.25 | stop | −9.75 |
| 2026-05-08 | long | 13:55 | 29278.00 | 14:55 | 29254.50 | stop | −23.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | short | 11:10 | 29161.25 | 11:30 | 29187.75 | stop | −26.50 |
| 2026-05-07 | long | 12:10 | 28747.00 | 12:11 | 28718.75 | stop | −28.25 |
| 2026-05-07 | short | 10:25 | 28864.25 | 10:39 | 28902.75 | stop | −38.50 |
| 2026-05-06 | short | 13:40 | 28592.00 | 14:06 | 28610.50 | stop | −18.50 |
| 2026-05-06 | short | 13:25 | 28581.50 | 13:31 | 28592.00 | stop | −10.50 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 15:15 | 28172.50 | 15:50 | 28140.50 | target | 32.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 14:10 | 28171.50 | 14:12 | 28179.50 | stop | −8.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 13:40 | 28140.25 | 13:43 | 28152.00 | stop | −11.75 |
| 2026-05-05 | short | 09:55 | 28069.75 | 10:24 | 28112.25 | stop | −42.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | long | 14:30 | 27771.50 | 14:44 | 27732.00 | stop | −39.50 |
| 2026-04-30 | long | 11:50 | 27373.00 | 13:29 | 27457.00 | target | 84.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | short | 11:35 | 27404.50 | 11:45 | 27341.50 | target | 63.00 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time a hammer forms at a 10-bar low?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 184 long trades, won 38.6% of them and made -1,002.25 points (-$20,045 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,239.50 points on 518 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,192.00 points on 74 trades on the 1-hour chart and -1,478.25 points on 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time a shooting star forms at a 10-bar high?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 185 short trades, won 37.3% of them and made -92.25 points (-$4,612 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -256.25 points on 436 trades on the 5-minute chart, 146.50 points on 48 trades on the 1-hour chart and -167.25 points on 7 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the hammer and shooting star strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy on the 15-minute chart took 348 trades, won 35.6% of them and finished -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Hammer / shooting star on ES futures?
The hammer and shooting star strategy won 38.9% of its 357 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 31.8% of 944 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.0% of 118 trades on the 1-hour chart and 27.3% of 11 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the hammer and shooting star strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy made -1,685.00 points on 992 trades on the 5-minute chart, -2,930.25 points on 348 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,417.00 points on 124 trades on the 1-hour chart and -2,066.50 points on 17 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell hammer and shooting star signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -1,002.25 points on 184 trades (38.6% won) and the short trades made -1,928.00 points on 164 trades (32.3% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the hammer and shooting star strategy take on NQ in two years?
The hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 992 on the 5-minute chart, 124 on the 1-hour chart and 17 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the hammer and shooting star strategy on NQ?
The hammer and shooting star strategy had a max drawdown of 3,761.25 points ($75,225 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,411.75 points on the 5-minute chart, 640.25 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,037.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the hammer and shooting star strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 357 trades, won 38.9% of them and made 52.25 points ($2,613 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the hammer and shooting star strategy took 348 trades, won 35.6% of them and made -2,930.25 points (-$58,605 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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