Strategy library · Candles and price action
Key reversal bar backtest on NQ and ES futures
Key reversal bar
Also called: key reversal strategy, key reversal bar pattern, 20 bar low reversal, buy when a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close, short when a new 20-bar high is followed by a close below the prior close
What happens if you buy NQ every time a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close?
What it is
A key reversal bar makes a new 20-bar low and then closes above the prior close. This strategy goes long on that signal (mirror for shorts), with the stop beyond the bar's extreme and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 35.7% of them and finished -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 367 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 38.7% and made 314.25 points ($6,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the key reversal bar strategy took 800 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 36.1% of them and finished -4.00 points (-$200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the key reversal bar strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: New 20-bar low, then a close above the prior close: long. Mirror for shorts. Exit: Stop beyond the bar's extreme, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 2152 | 35.3% | 0.38 | 1.017 | 810.00 | $16,200 | 2,316.50 | 1919 | 32.1% | −0.56 | 0.880 | −1,066.00 | −$53,300 | 1,302.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 1003 | 35.2% | — | — | 239.25 | $4,785 | 2,581.50 | 938 | 32.2% | — | — | −661.25 | −$33,062 | 917.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 1149 | 35.3% | — | — | 570.75 | $11,415 | 2,413.25 | 981 | 31.9% | — | — | −404.75 | −$20,237 | 494.75 |
| 15 minute | 805 | 35.7% | −1.92 | 0.949 | −1,541.75 | −$30,835 | 3,553.50 | 800 | 36.1% | −0.00 | 0.999 | −4.00 | −$200 | 648.25 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 367 | 38.7% | — | — | 314.25 | $6,285 | 2,474.25 | 375 | 37.3% | — | — | 349.00 | $17,450 | 266.25 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 438 | 33.1% | — | — | −1,856.00 | −$37,120 | 2,822.25 | 425 | 35.1% | — | — | −353.00 | −$17,650 | 570.50 |
| 1 hour | 314 | 42.4% | −4.96 | 0.897 | −1,556.00 | −$31,120 | 3,336.75 | 309 | 43.7% | 0.61 | 1.069 | 188.25 | $9,413 | 307.00 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 131 | 44.3% | — | — | −1,291.50 | −$25,830 | 2,502.00 | 124 | 47.6% | — | — | 85.00 | $4,250 | 223.25 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 183 | 41.0% | — | — | −264.50 | −$5,290 | 1,421.50 | 185 | 41.1% | — | — | 103.25 | $5,163 | 183.00 |
| Daily | 43 | 39.5% | 16.52 | 1.074 | 710.50 | $14,210 | 3,045.75 | 42 | 33.3% | 5.52 | 1.103 | 231.75 | $11,588 | 747.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 12 | 33.3% | — | — | 981.75 | $19,635 | 3,045.75 | 14 | 35.7% | — | — | 561.75 | $28,088 | 747.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 31 | 41.9% | — | — | −271.25 | −$5,425 | 1,512.25 | 28 | 32.1% | — | — | −330.00 | −$16,500 | 347.00 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
ES 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 938 | −661.25 |
| Short | 981 | −404.75 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 13 | −24.75 |
| 2024-09 | 90 | −94.50 |
| 2024-10 | 63 | −59.75 |
| 2024-11 | 77 | −66.75 |
| 2024-12 | 65 | 34.00 |
| 2025-01 | 70 | 80.00 |
| 2025-02 | 55 | 14.00 |
| 2025-03 | 94 | 188.25 |
| 2025-04 | 95 | −440.50 |
| 2025-05 | 75 | −125.50 |
| 2025-06 | 54 | −13.50 |
| 2025-07 | 80 | 7.50 |
| 2025-08 | 77 | −141.50 |
| 2025-09 | 85 | −72.00 |
| 2025-10 | 95 | 51.00 |
| 2025-11 | 104 | −184.25 |
| 2025-12 | 72 | −127.00 |
| 2026-01 | 79 | 39.25 |
| 2026-02 | 67 | 182.75 |
| 2026-03 | 84 | −33.75 |
| 2026-04 | 75 | −151.50 |
| 2026-05 | 82 | 109.50 |
| 2026-06 | 85 | −71.25 |
| 2026-07 | 111 | −56.50 |
| 2026-08 | 72 | −109.25 |
Every trade, ES 5 minute1919 trades
Pick any of the 1919 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1919), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | long | 14:25 | 7453.00 | 14:30 | 7447.50 | stop | −5.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | long | 14:05 | 7456.00 | 14:07 | 7451.50 | stop | −4.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | long | 11:45 | 7444.00 | 12:01 | 7461.00 | target | 17.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | short | 10:25 | 7483.00 | 10:40 | 7466.50 | target | 16.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | long | 09:35 | 7432.75 | 10:00 | 7468.25 | target | 35.50 |
| 2026-06-22 | long | 11:00 | 7542.75 | 15:59 | 7540.25 | end of day 15:59 | −2.50 |
| 2026-06-22 | short | 10:15 | 7590.00 | 10:24 | 7571.00 | target | 19.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | short | 10:05 | 7593.50 | 10:10 | 7597.75 | stop | −4.25 |
| 2026-06-22 | short | 09:45 | 7578.75 | 10:00 | 7597.00 | stop | −18.25 |
| 2026-06-19 | short | 09:35 | 7558.00 | 10:43 | 7563.50 | stop | −5.50 |
| 2026-06-18 | short | 09:35 | 7557.75 | 15:59 | 7564.25 | end of day 15:59 | −6.50 |
| 2026-06-17 | long | 14:10 | 7546.50 | 15:20 | 7514.25 | stop | −32.25 |
| 2026-06-17 | long | 10:45 | 7584.00 | 10:47 | 7573.75 | stop | −10.25 |
| 2026-06-17 | long | 10:05 | 7587.00 | 10:40 | 7578.25 | stop | −8.75 |
| 2026-06-17 | long | 09:45 | 7598.00 | 09:59 | 7583.00 | stop | −15.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | long | 15:20 | 7594.00 | 15:59 | 7584.50 | stop | −9.50 |
| 2026-06-15 | long | 15:40 | 7560.25 | 15:48 | 7564.75 | target | 4.50 |
| 2026-06-15 | long | 14:35 | 7565.50 | 15:29 | 7561.00 | stop | −4.50 |
| 2026-06-15 | short | 11:35 | 7566.00 | 11:42 | 7572.00 | stop | −6.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | short | 11:15 | 7564.00 | 11:20 | 7565.50 | stop | −1.50 |
| 2026-06-15 | short | 09:55 | 7553.75 | 10:13 | 7545.25 | target | 8.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | long | 15:40 | 7424.25 | 15:55 | 7435.75 | target | 11.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | short | 11:30 | 7458.50 | 11:31 | 7451.50 | target | 7.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | short | 11:05 | 7437.75 | 11:13 | 7446.75 | stop | −9.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | short | 15:40 | 7409.00 | 15:59 | 7394.25 | end of day 15:59 | 14.75 |
| 2026-06-11 | short | 15:25 | 7393.25 | 15:26 | 7397.00 | stop | −3.75 |
| 2026-06-11 | long | 13:25 | 7279.75 | 13:28 | 7296.25 | target | 16.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | short | 12:20 | 7317.25 | 12:24 | 7305.25 | target | 12.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | long | 11:05 | 7278.75 | 11:40 | 7310.75 | target | 32.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | long | 11:55 | 7328.25 | 13:32 | 7304.75 | stop | −23.50 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | 10:15 | 7387.75 | 10:23 | 7397.00 | stop | −9.25 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 15:10 | 7386.50 | 15:16 | 7361.50 | target | 25.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 12:45 | 7268.00 | 13:05 | 7310.00 | target | 42.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 12:25 | 7296.00 | 12:38 | 7274.50 | stop | −21.50 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 11:35 | 7334.00 | 11:56 | 7325.75 | stop | −8.25 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 10:55 | 7387.25 | 11:23 | 7367.25 | stop | −20.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | long | 10:25 | 7440.75 | 10:43 | 7415.00 | stop | −25.75 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 09:35 | 7458.50 | 09:35 | 7464.00 | stop | −5.50 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 15:30 | 7414.50 | 15:59 | 7416.00 | end of day 15:59 | 1.50 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 13:15 | 7431.50 | 15:10 | 7422.75 | stop | −8.75 |
| 2026-06-08 | short | 11:05 | 7469.25 | 11:06 | 7476.75 | stop | −7.50 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 10:05 | 7434.75 | 10:06 | 7446.75 | target | 12.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | long | 09:45 | 7450.50 | 09:57 | 7437.75 | stop | −12.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 12:50 | 7460.00 | 14:14 | 7448.75 | stop | −11.25 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 12:15 | 7478.75 | 12:16 | 7474.00 | stop | −4.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 10:05 | 7513.75 | 10:17 | 7530.25 | target | 16.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | long | 09:35 | 7550.50 | 09:37 | 7540.50 | stop | −10.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 15:35 | 7609.75 | 15:45 | 7605.75 | target | 4.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 14:25 | 7606.00 | 14:47 | 7607.75 | stop | −1.75 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 13:55 | 7602.00 | 13:56 | 7603.25 | stop | −1.25 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time a new 20-bar low is followed by a close above the prior close?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the key reversal bar strategy took 367 long trades, won 38.7% of them and made 314.25 points ($6,285 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 239.25 points on 1,003 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,291.50 points on 131 trades on the 1-hour chart and 981.75 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time a new 20-bar high is followed by a close below the prior close?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the key reversal bar strategy took 425 short trades, won 35.1% of them and made -353.00 points (-$17,650 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -404.75 points on 981 trades on the 5-minute chart, 103.25 points on 185 trades on the 1-hour chart and -330.00 points on 28 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the key reversal bar strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy on the 15-minute chart took 805 trades, won 35.7% of them and finished -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Key reversal bar on ES futures?
The key reversal bar strategy won 36.1% of its 800 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 32.1% of 1,919 trades on the 5-minute chart, 43.7% of 309 trades on the 1-hour chart and 33.3% of 42 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the key reversal bar strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy made 810.00 points on 2,152 trades on the 5-minute chart, -1,541.75 points on 805 trades on the 15-minute chart, -1,556.00 points on 314 trades on the 1-hour chart and 710.50 points on 43 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell key reversal bar signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 314.25 points on 367 trades (38.7% won) and the short trades made -1,856.00 points on 438 trades (33.1% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the key reversal bar strategy take on NQ in two years?
The key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 2,152 on the 5-minute chart, 314 on the 1-hour chart and 43 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the key reversal bar strategy on NQ?
The key reversal bar strategy had a max drawdown of 3,553.50 points ($71,070 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 2,316.50 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,336.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 3,045.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the key reversal bar strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the key reversal bar strategy took 800 trades, won 36.1% of them and made -4.00 points (-$200 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the key reversal bar strategy took 805 trades, won 35.7% of them and made -1,541.75 points (-$30,835 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
Want your own rules tested the same way?