Strategy library · Candles and price action
Morning star and evening star backtest on NQ and ES futures
Morning star / evening star
Also called: morning star pattern, evening star pattern, morning star candlestick strategy, buy when a morning star forms, short when an evening star forms
What happens if you buy NQ every time a morning star forms?
What it is
A morning star is a three-candle bullish reversal pattern, and an evening star is its bearish mirror. This strategy goes long after a morning star and short after an evening star, with the stop beyond the pattern and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 37.4% of them and finished -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 236 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 44.9% and made -882.00 points (-$17,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the morning star and evening star strategy took 572 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 38.1% of them and finished -356.00 points (-$17,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the morning star and evening star strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: Long after a morning star; short after an evening star. Exit: Stop beyond the pattern, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1432 | 32.5% | −1.67 | 0.940 | −2,386.00 | −$47,720 | 4,738.25 | 1481 | 33.2% | −0.06 | 0.990 | −87.50 | −$4,375 | 465.75 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 722 | 32.0% | — | — | −1,238.75 | −$24,775 | 2,730.50 | 761 | 31.7% | — | — | −187.00 | −$9,350 | 479.25 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 710 | 33.1% | — | — | −1,147.25 | −$22,945 | 2,305.00 | 720 | 34.7% | — | — | 99.50 | $4,975 | 248.00 |
| 15 minute | 530 | 37.4% | −8.29 | 0.805 | −4,396.00 | −$87,920 | 5,887.50 | 572 | 38.1% | −0.62 | 0.923 | −356.00 | −$17,800 | 1,139.50 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 236 | 44.9% | — | — | −882.00 | −$17,640 | 2,593.00 | 282 | 41.1% | — | — | 106.75 | $5,338 | 425.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 294 | 31.3% | — | — | −3,514.00 | −$70,280 | 3,727.00 | 290 | 35.2% | — | — | −462.75 | −$23,137 | 775.75 |
| 1 hour | 166 | 50.0% | 8.95 | 1.236 | 1,485.25 | $29,705 | 755.50 | 156 | 50.0% | 1.49 | 1.178 | 232.75 | $11,638 | 230.50 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 90 | 48.9% | — | — | −320.25 | −$6,405 | 639.75 | 64 | 54.7% | — | — | 27.00 | $1,350 | 148.50 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 76 | 51.3% | — | — | 1,805.50 | $36,110 | 556.50 | 92 | 46.7% | — | — | 205.75 | $10,288 | 150.25 |
| Daily | 20 | 45.0% | 217.49 | 1.657 | 4,349.75 | $86,995 | 2,437.00 | 22 | 45.5% | 20.97 | 1.380 | 461.25 | $23,063 | 432.00 |
| Daily · longs only | 12 | 50.0% | — | — | 2,496.00 | $49,920 | 2,075.25 | 9 | 33.3% | — | — | 128.75 | $6,438 | 413.00 |
| Daily · shorts only | 8 | 37.5% | — | — | 1,853.75 | $37,075 | 1,571.75 | 13 | 53.9% | — | — | 332.50 | $16,625 | 224.00 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 722 | −1,238.75 |
| Short | 710 | −1,147.25 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 56 | −236.00 |
| 2024-11 | 52 | −367.50 |
| 2024-12 | 55 | −457.75 |
| 2025-01 | 64 | −791.00 |
| 2025-02 | 44 | −17.25 |
| 2025-03 | 64 | −570.25 |
| 2025-04 | 63 | 732.75 |
| 2025-05 | 68 | −442.25 |
| 2025-06 | 65 | 207.00 |
| 2025-07 | 58 | 138.25 |
| 2025-08 | 56 | −494.75 |
| 2025-09 | 73 | −344.00 |
| 2025-10 | 66 | −295.75 |
| 2025-11 | 53 | 367.50 |
| 2025-12 | 55 | −188.25 |
| 2026-01 | 56 | −977.00 |
| 2026-02 | 53 | 242.25 |
| 2026-03 | 65 | −679.75 |
| 2026-04 | 67 | −341.25 |
| 2026-05 | 55 | 631.25 |
| 2026-06 | 64 | 852.50 |
| 2026-07 | 56 | −127.25 |
| 2026-08 | 42 | 691.00 |
| 2026-09 | 70 | 253.25 |
| 2026-10 | 12 | −171.75 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute1432 trades
Pick any of the 1432 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1432), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | long | 13:50 | 23579.00 | 14:22 | 23557.00 | stop | −22.00 |
| 2025-08-25 | short | 13:30 | 23584.00 | 13:40 | 23567.00 | target | 17.00 |
| 2025-08-25 | long | 12:10 | 23605.50 | 12:19 | 23595.75 | stop | −9.75 |
| 2025-08-22 | long | 13:05 | 23554.50 | 15:59 | 23565.00 | end of day 15:59 | 10.50 |
| 2025-08-21 | long | 14:40 | 23217.75 | 15:59 | 23217.50 | end of day 15:59 | −0.25 |
| 2025-08-21 | short | 14:30 | 23198.50 | 14:35 | 23219.75 | stop | −21.25 |
| 2025-08-21 | short | 12:30 | 23182.25 | 13:47 | 23214.00 | stop | −31.75 |
| 2025-08-20 | long | 12:05 | 23208.00 | 15:12 | 23319.50 | target | 111.50 |
| 2025-08-19 | short | 15:05 | 23438.75 | 15:32 | 23471.50 | stop | −32.75 |
| 2025-08-19 | short | 11:40 | 23567.50 | 11:44 | 23588.75 | stop | −21.25 |
| 2025-08-18 | long | 10:55 | 23774.25 | 15:59 | 23797.00 | end of day 15:59 | 22.75 |
| 2025-08-18 | long | 10:05 | 23782.50 | 10:46 | 23734.75 | stop | −47.75 |
| 2025-08-18 | long | 09:35 | 23815.50 | 09:51 | 23761.25 | stop | −54.25 |
| 2025-08-15 | short | 15:05 | 23789.25 | 15:41 | 23821.25 | stop | −32.00 |
| 2025-08-15 | short | 14:40 | 23813.25 | 15:03 | 23778.25 | target | 35.00 |
| 2025-08-15 | long | 13:30 | 23805.75 | 14:00 | 23845.75 | target | 40.00 |
| 2025-08-13 | short | 11:55 | 23925.50 | 15:59 | 23958.50 | stop | −33.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | long | 13:50 | 23912.75 | 15:54 | 23944.75 | target | 32.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | short | 11:30 | 23833.25 | 11:56 | 23861.50 | stop | −28.25 |
| 2025-08-12 | short | 09:45 | 23737.50 | 11:07 | 23808.50 | stop | −71.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | long | 14:15 | 23692.25 | 14:44 | 23675.25 | stop | −17.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | short | 12:35 | 23779.75 | 12:40 | 23759.75 | target | 20.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | long | 11:35 | 23742.75 | 11:38 | 23725.75 | stop | −17.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | long | 10:45 | 23754.75 | 10:46 | 23741.25 | stop | −13.50 |
| 2025-08-08 | short | 14:15 | 23703.50 | 15:59 | 23714.50 | end of day 15:59 | −11.00 |
| 2025-08-08 | long | 13:10 | 23679.75 | 13:18 | 23659.00 | stop | −20.75 |
| 2025-08-08 | short | 12:50 | 23687.25 | 13:01 | 23661.75 | target | 25.50 |
| 2025-08-07 | long | 14:30 | 23369.50 | 15:45 | 23451.00 | target | 81.50 |
| 2025-08-07 | long | 12:55 | 23476.75 | 13:31 | 23389.75 | stop | −87.00 |
| 2025-08-06 | short | 15:45 | 23422.00 | 15:59 | 23424.75 | end of day 15:59 | −2.75 |
| 2025-08-06 | short | 15:00 | 23415.50 | 15:20 | 23434.00 | stop | −18.50 |
| 2025-08-06 | long | 14:50 | 23427.25 | 14:58 | 23413.75 | stop | −13.50 |
| 2025-08-06 | short | 12:15 | 23369.50 | 12:20 | 23385.25 | stop | −15.75 |
| 2025-08-06 | short | 10:15 | 23219.75 | 10:56 | 23285.25 | stop | −65.50 |
| 2025-08-06 | long | 09:35 | 23219.75 | 09:39 | 23153.00 | stop | −66.75 |
| 2025-08-04 | short | 15:30 | 23266.50 | 15:57 | 23303.25 | stop | −36.75 |
| 2025-08-04 | short | 14:45 | 23260.50 | 15:15 | 23277.25 | stop | −16.75 |
| 2025-08-04 | long | 14:25 | 23268.50 | 14:42 | 23258.50 | stop | −10.00 |
| 2025-08-04 | long | 13:10 | 23275.75 | 13:44 | 23264.25 | stop | −11.50 |
| 2025-08-04 | short | 10:10 | 23229.50 | 12:00 | 23264.50 | stop | −35.00 |
| 2025-08-01 | long | 14:20 | 22825.00 | 14:42 | 22925.50 | target | 100.50 |
| 2025-08-01 | long | 11:40 | 22953.25 | 12:56 | 22895.75 | stop | −57.50 |
| 2025-08-01 | short | 10:05 | 22861.50 | 10:10 | 22909.25 | stop | −47.75 |
| 2025-07-31 | long | 14:25 | 23387.50 | 15:59 | 23354.25 | end of day 15:59 | −33.25 |
| 2025-07-31 | long | 12:00 | 23583.75 | 13:02 | 23557.00 | stop | −26.75 |
| 2025-07-31 | long | 10:10 | 23686.25 | 10:11 | 23663.50 | stop | −22.75 |
| 2025-07-30 | long | 15:35 | 23411.75 | 15:57 | 23481.75 | target | 70.00 |
| 2025-07-30 | short | 14:20 | 23536.25 | 14:27 | 23556.50 | stop | −20.25 |
| 2025-07-30 | long | 11:25 | 23502.00 | 14:00 | 23555.50 | target | 53.50 |
| 2025-07-29 | long | 14:35 | 23491.25 | 15:22 | 23467.50 | stop | −23.75 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time a morning star forms?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the morning star and evening star strategy took 236 long trades, won 44.9% of them and made -882.00 points (-$17,640 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made -1,238.75 points on 722 trades on the 5-minute chart, -320.25 points on 90 trades on the 1-hour chart and 2,496.00 points on 12 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time an evening star forms?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the morning star and evening star strategy took 290 short trades, won 35.2% of them and made -462.75 points (-$23,137 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made 99.50 points on 720 trades on the 5-minute chart, 205.75 points on 92 trades on the 1-hour chart and 332.50 points on 13 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the morning star and evening star strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy on the 15-minute chart took 530 trades, won 37.4% of them and finished -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Morning star / evening star on ES futures?
The morning star and evening star strategy won 38.1% of its 572 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.2% of 1,481 trades on the 5-minute chart, 50.0% of 156 trades on the 1-hour chart and 45.5% of 22 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the morning star and evening star strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy made -2,386.00 points on 1,432 trades on the 5-minute chart, -4,396.00 points on 530 trades on the 15-minute chart, 1,485.25 points on 166 trades on the 1-hour chart and 4,349.75 points on 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell morning star and evening star signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made -882.00 points on 236 trades (44.9% won) and the short trades made -3,514.00 points on 294 trades (31.3% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the morning star and evening star strategy take on NQ in two years?
The morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,432 on the 5-minute chart, 166 on the 1-hour chart and 20 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the morning star and evening star strategy on NQ?
The morning star and evening star strategy had a max drawdown of 5,887.50 points ($117,750 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 4,738.25 points on the 5-minute chart, 755.50 points on the 1-hour chart and 2,437.00 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the morning star and evening star strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the morning star and evening star strategy took 572 trades, won 38.1% of them and made -356.00 points (-$17,800 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the morning star and evening star strategy took 530 trades, won 37.4% of them and made -4,396.00 points (-$87,920 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.
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