Strategy library · Candles and price action
Outside bar reversal backtest on NQ and ES futures
Outside bar reversal
Also called: outside bar strategy, outside bar pattern, buy when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%, short when a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its bottom 25%
What happens if you buy NQ every time a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%?
What it is
An outside bar is a bar whose range engulfs the range of the prior bar. This strategy goes long at the next open after an outside bar that closes in its top 25% (mirror for shorts), with the stop beyond the bar and a target of 2R.
What it did
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, the 320 long trades on the 15-minute chart won 42.8% and made 1,599.00 points ($31,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. On ES futures from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the outside bar reversal strategy took 606 trades on the 15-minute chart, won 39.4% of them and finished -278.75 points (-$13,937 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. The 5-minute, 1-hour and daily results for both markets are in the table on this page.
How it was tested
CE Market Solutions tested the outside bar reversal strategy on NQ (2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07) and ES (2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27) futures, before commission and slippage, with each signal filled at the next bar's open, intraday positions flat at 15:59 ET and textbook default indicator settings; the NQ trades are listed on this page and the ES trades under the ES tab.
See it tested with one change · $19
Tested by CE Market Solutions on 2026-10-26. The trades are listed below, one market at a time. Gross, no commission or slippage. Last 2 years.
Results
Rule as tested: A bar that engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%: long the next open. Mirror for shorts. Exit: Stop beyond the bar, target 2R.
| Timeframe | NQ · 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 | ES · 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 NQ) | Max DD pts | Trades | Win % | Avg pts | Profit factor | Net pts | Net $ (1 ES) | Max DD pts | |
| 5 minute | 1539 | 34.2% | −1.05 | 0.966 | −1,622.50 | −$32,450 | 3,873.00 | 1471 | 33.7% | −0.32 | 0.949 | −466.50 | −$23,325 | 1,025.50 |
| 5 minute · longs only | 779 | 34.3% | — | — | 98.00 | $1,960 | 3,743.50 | 744 | 33.3% | — | — | 16.50 | $825 | 635.50 |
| 5 minute · shorts only | 760 | 34.1% | — | — | −1,720.50 | −$34,410 | 2,601.25 | 727 | 34.0% | — | — | −483.00 | −$24,150 | 854.50 |
| 15 minute | 624 | 42.2% | 2.50 | 1.057 | 1,561.50 | $31,230 | 3,096.50 | 606 | 39.4% | −0.46 | 0.953 | −278.75 | −$13,937 | 1,119.75 |
| 15 minute · longs only | 320 | 42.8% | — | — | 1,599.00 | $31,980 | 2,002.25 | 324 | 39.2% | — | — | −122.50 | −$6,125 | 577.50 |
| 15 minute · shorts only | 304 | 41.5% | — | — | −37.50 | −$750 | 2,019.50 | 282 | 39.7% | — | — | −156.25 | −$7,812 | 586.50 |
| 1 hour | 215 | 47.0% | −1.17 | 0.980 | −251.00 | −$5,020 | 3,750.75 | 229 | 40.6% | −2.11 | 0.830 | −483.75 | −$24,187 | 609.00 |
| 1 hour · longs only | 112 | 49.1% | — | — | −275.50 | −$5,510 | 2,310.00 | 127 | 44.1% | — | — | −8.75 | −$437 | 260.00 |
| 1 hour · shorts only | 103 | 44.7% | — | — | 24.50 | $490 | 1,667.75 | 102 | 36.3% | — | — | −475.00 | −$23,750 | 518.75 |
| Daily | 23 | 39.1% | 327.36 | 1.973 | 7,529.25 | $150,585 | 4,341.75 | 20 | 35.0% | 83.58 | 2.217 | 1,671.50 | $83,575 | 763.75 |
| Daily · longs only | 14 | 35.7% | — | — | 5,268.50 | $105,370 | 2,244.00 | 12 | 41.7% | — | — | 1,602.50 | $80,125 | 532.25 |
| Daily · shorts only | 9 | 44.4% | — | — | 2,260.75 | $45,215 | 2,097.75 | 8 | 25.0% | — | — | 69.00 | $3,450 | 428.00 |
Free to use with credit to CE Market Solutions (CC BY 4.0).
NQ 5 minute: the equity line
Long and short
| Side | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| Long | 779 | 98.00 |
| Short | 760 | −1,720.50 |
By month
| Month | Trades | Net pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 45 | 248.75 |
| 2024-11 | 62 | 486.25 |
| 2024-12 | 56 | 88.25 |
| 2025-01 | 61 | −206.25 |
| 2025-02 | 49 | −83.50 |
| 2025-03 | 60 | 24.75 |
| 2025-04 | 70 | 1,198.00 |
| 2025-05 | 64 | −24.75 |
| 2025-06 | 73 | −480.00 |
| 2025-07 | 57 | 464.25 |
| 2025-08 | 62 | −329.25 |
| 2025-09 | 74 | −402.00 |
| 2025-10 | 67 | 407.50 |
| 2025-11 | 65 | 280.75 |
| 2025-12 | 61 | −104.75 |
| 2026-01 | 55 | −87.00 |
| 2026-02 | 69 | −78.25 |
| 2026-03 | 58 | 107.25 |
| 2026-04 | 62 | −794.00 |
| 2026-05 | 68 | −307.75 |
| 2026-06 | 68 | −983.75 |
| 2026-07 | 76 | 365.75 |
| 2026-08 | 70 | −1,067.50 |
| 2026-09 | 73 | −74.75 |
| 2026-10 | 14 | −270.50 |
Every trade, NQ 5 minute1539 trades
Pick any of the 1539 charted trades with Previous, Next or a date, or click a row in the trades table below, to see it drawn on the real 1-minute bars. Drag the chart sideways to move through the sessions around it.
Chart unavailable. The trades are in the table below.
All trades (1539), newest first
Times are New York time; points are gross. Click a row to draw that trade in the chart above.
| Session date | Side | Entry (ET) | Entry price | Exit (ET) | Exit price | Exit reason | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | long | 11:35 | 22837.00 | 13:57 | 22809.00 | stop | −28.00 |
| 2025-06-30 | long | 11:05 | 22829.50 | 11:12 | 22815.25 | stop | −14.25 |
| 2025-06-27 | short | 14:30 | 22666.50 | 15:40 | 22703.50 | stop | −37.00 |
| 2025-06-27 | long | 14:00 | 22736.25 | 14:18 | 22695.75 | stop | −40.50 |
| 2025-06-27 | short | 13:35 | 22766.25 | 13:41 | 22779.25 | stop | −13.00 |
| 2025-06-27 | short | 10:25 | 22788.00 | 11:41 | 22816.25 | stop | −28.25 |
| 2025-06-27 | long | 09:35 | 22717.75 | 10:00 | 22783.25 | target | 65.50 |
| 2025-06-26 | long | 15:00 | 22667.00 | 15:15 | 22656.75 | stop | −10.25 |
| 2025-06-26 | long | 13:05 | 22617.50 | 14:05 | 22658.00 | target | 40.50 |
| 2025-06-26 | long | 10:50 | 22577.75 | 11:30 | 22556.25 | stop | −21.50 |
| 2025-06-26 | short | 09:50 | 22498.25 | 09:58 | 22534.00 | stop | −35.75 |
| 2025-06-25 | long | 14:05 | 22420.00 | 15:12 | 22456.50 | target | 36.50 |
| 2025-06-25 | short | 13:05 | 22431.50 | 13:20 | 22449.00 | stop | −17.50 |
| 2025-06-25 | short | 12:35 | 22430.75 | 12:56 | 22443.75 | stop | −13.00 |
| 2025-06-25 | long | 11:50 | 22454.25 | 12:09 | 22435.25 | stop | −19.00 |
| 2025-06-25 | long | 10:45 | 22513.75 | 10:50 | 22486.00 | stop | −27.75 |
| 2025-06-24 | short | 14:15 | 22413.50 | 15:00 | 22431.00 | stop | −17.50 |
| 2025-06-24 | long | 12:05 | 22377.25 | 12:44 | 22417.75 | target | 40.50 |
| 2025-06-23 | long | 14:20 | 22076.50 | 14:24 | 22055.75 | stop | −20.75 |
| 2025-06-23 | long | 13:05 | 21896.00 | 13:30 | 22045.50 | target | 149.50 |
| 2025-06-23 | short | 10:50 | 21985.00 | 12:02 | 21918.50 | target | 66.50 |
| 2025-06-20 | short | 10:45 | 21880.25 | 15:59 | 21842.75 | end of day 15:59 | 37.50 |
| 2025-06-19 | long | 12:35 | 21740.25 | 12:45 | 21721.50 | stop | −18.75 |
| 2025-06-19 | short | 11:35 | 21704.50 | 11:47 | 21722.75 | stop | −18.25 |
| 2025-06-19 | short | 10:45 | 21681.75 | 10:54 | 21719.25 | stop | −37.50 |
| 2025-06-19 | long | 10:25 | 21717.75 | 10:33 | 21698.00 | stop | −19.75 |
| 2025-06-18 | short | 14:05 | 21977.50 | 15:59 | 21949.00 | end of day 15:59 | 28.50 |
| 2025-06-18 | long | 10:05 | 22023.75 | 13:28 | 21980.25 | stop | −43.50 |
| 2025-06-17 | short | 12:25 | 22111.50 | 12:49 | 22069.50 | target | 42.00 |
| 2025-06-17 | short | 09:45 | 22034.50 | 09:52 | 22092.00 | stop | −57.50 |
| 2025-06-16 | short | 11:30 | 21963.00 | 15:59 | 21948.50 | end of day 15:59 | 14.50 |
| 2025-06-16 | long | 09:50 | 21883.00 | 10:28 | 21971.00 | target | 88.00 |
| 2025-06-13 | short | 15:35 | 21622.00 | 15:36 | 21655.50 | stop | −33.50 |
| 2025-06-13 | short | 12:40 | 21807.75 | 12:56 | 21834.75 | stop | −27.00 |
| 2025-06-13 | short | 09:55 | 21733.75 | 11:22 | 21795.00 | stop | −61.25 |
| 2025-06-12 | short | 14:15 | 21936.25 | 14:27 | 21908.25 | target | 28.00 |
| 2025-06-12 | short | 13:25 | 21941.75 | 13:31 | 21957.75 | stop | −16.00 |
| 2025-06-12 | short | 12:05 | 21912.00 | 12:12 | 21944.75 | stop | −32.75 |
| 2025-06-11 | long | 14:35 | 21873.75 | 15:59 | 21887.75 | end of day 15:59 | 14.00 |
| 2025-06-11 | short | 11:40 | 22010.75 | 12:06 | 21976.25 | target | 34.50 |
| 2025-06-11 | long | 10:10 | 22000.25 | 10:48 | 22053.75 | target | 53.50 |
| 2025-06-10 | long | 10:45 | 21881.75 | 10:55 | 21860.00 | stop | −21.75 |
| 2025-06-10 | short | 09:35 | 21825.00 | 09:39 | 21866.00 | stop | −41.00 |
| 2025-06-09 | short | 15:15 | 21859.50 | 15:46 | 21832.00 | target | 27.50 |
| 2025-06-09 | short | 14:30 | 21865.50 | 14:39 | 21847.00 | target | 18.50 |
| 2025-06-09 | short | 11:15 | 21852.00 | 11:27 | 21816.50 | target | 35.50 |
| 2025-06-09 | short | 10:00 | 21787.50 | 10:09 | 21820.00 | stop | −32.50 |
| 2025-06-09 | short | 09:35 | 21779.50 | 09:52 | 21815.25 | stop | −35.75 |
| 2025-06-06 | long | 14:55 | 21845.50 | 15:10 | 21826.50 | stop | −19.00 |
| 2025-06-06 | long | 10:50 | 21835.25 | 10:57 | 21813.75 | stop | −21.50 |
Questions and answers
What happens if you buy NQ every time a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its top 25%?
From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on the NQ 15-minute chart, the outside bar reversal strategy took 320 long trades, won 42.8% of them and made 1,599.00 points ($31,980 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 on NQ, its long trades also made 98.00 points on 779 trades on the 5-minute chart, -275.50 points on 112 trades on the 1-hour chart and 5,268.50 points on 14 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What happens if you short ES every time a bar engulfs the prior bar's range and closes in its bottom 25%?
From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on the ES 15-minute chart, the outside bar reversal strategy took 282 short trades, won 39.7% of them and made -156.25 points (-$7,812 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. From 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 on ES, its short trades also made -483.00 points on 727 trades on the 5-minute chart, -475.00 points on 102 trades on the 1-hour chart and 69.00 points on 8 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Does the outside bar reversal strategy work on Nasdaq futures?
On NQ futures from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy on the 15-minute chart took 624 trades, won 42.2% of them and finished 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
What is the win rate of Outside bar reversal on ES futures?
The outside bar reversal strategy won 39.4% of its 606 trades on the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, before commission and slippage. On ES from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27 it also won 33.7% of 1,471 trades on the 5-minute chart, 40.6% of 229 trades on the 1-hour chart and 35.0% of 20 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is the outside bar reversal strategy better on the 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour or daily chart for NQ?
On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy made -1,622.50 points on 1,539 trades on the 5-minute chart, 1,561.50 points on 624 trades on the 15-minute chart, -251.00 points on 215 trades on the 1-hour chart and 7,529.25 points on 23 trades on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
Is it better to only buy or only sell outside bar reversal signals on NQ?
On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the long trades made 1,599.00 points on 320 trades (42.8% won) and the short trades made -37.50 points on 304 trades (41.5% won), before commission and slippage.
How many trades does the outside bar reversal strategy take on NQ in two years?
The outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 it also took 1,539 on the 5-minute chart, 215 on the 1-hour chart and 23 on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
What is the max drawdown of the outside bar reversal strategy on NQ?
The outside bar reversal strategy had a max drawdown of 3,096.50 points ($61,930 on one NQ contract) on the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, before commission and slippage. On NQ from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07 its max drawdown was also 3,873.00 points on the 5-minute chart, 3,750.75 points on the 1-hour chart and 4,341.75 points on the daily chart, before commission and slippage.
How does the outside bar reversal strategy do on ES compared with NQ?
On the ES 15-minute chart from 2024-08-28 to 2026-08-27, the outside bar reversal strategy took 606 trades, won 39.4% of them and made -278.75 points (-$13,937 on one ES contract), before commission and slippage. On the NQ 15-minute chart from 2024-10-08 to 2026-10-07, the outside bar reversal strategy took 624 trades, won 42.2% of them and made 1,561.50 points ($31,230 on one NQ contract), before commission and slippage.
How these were run
- Gross: no commission and no slippage.
- The last 2 years of each market, from the first to the last session of its window.
- A signal on a closed bar fills at the next bar’s open.
- A stop and a target touched in the same minute count as the stop.
- Intraday positions are flat at 15:59 ET.
- Textbook TradingView default settings for every indicator; nothing is tuned.